europe’s lv powertrain sector - ukintpress-conferences.com · gm/km actual (acea) 2009 estimate...
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© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
June 22 2010Stuttgart
Al BedwellSenior Manager
Europe’s LV Powertrain SectorEvolution or Revolution?
Engine Expo 2010
2© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Outline• Recap on CO2 Targets
– Recent progress
• Outlook for the diesel market• Developments in the gasoline sector
– Boosting, DI– Power & Torque
• Light vehicle transmissions• Vehicle electrification
– Hybrid– Battery electric vehicles
• Summary of roadmap to long-term CO2 targets• Conclusions
3© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
CO2 Targets – A Long-Term ChallengeACEA-EU25 CO2 Passenger Car Targets
• 2008 voluntary target was missed by 13.5gm/km• 130gm/km = 15.3% reduction on 2008, 95gm/km = 38.1% reduction
90100110120130140150160170180190
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CO
2 gm
/km
Actual (ACEA) 2009 Estimate (JDPA)
165-170
140
95
diesel boomrecent
longterm
best
6575
80100
% compliance toavoid fines
130 (vehicle)
120 (other)
‘eco-cars’,downsizing,stop-start..
4© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
32%
34%
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Sha
re o
f N
ew C
ar S
ales
(%
)
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West Europe Small Car Mix
Influence of the Market on 2009 CO2 Reduction
RecordSmall Car
Share
5© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Diesel Market – Collapse in 2009, Recovery 2010?
25
30
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50
Shar
e of
New
Car
Sal
es
(%)
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
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-08
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-08
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-08
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l-08
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-08
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-09
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10Fe
b-10
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-10
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-10
Germany Diesel Car Market
ScrappageIntro
Car TaxReform
DieselRecovery
ScrappageEnds
6© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
25
30
35
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Sh
are
of
Ne
w C
ar
Sa
les
(%
)
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2009
2010
Q1
2010
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2015
2016
2017
West Europe Diesel Car Market
Long Term Diesel Decline?
But Diesel Volumes will Recover and Remain RobustYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Diesel Share (%) 53.4 52.7 45.8 48.9 48.6 48.2 47.4 46.3 45.3 43.7 41.8Diesel Sales (mn units) 7.9 7.1 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6
Why the Fall?• Better gasoline
engines
• Increasingdiesel fuel price
• EU6• Electrification• Other Fuels
7© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Update on the Gasoline Sector
3.0TN54, N55
1.8TEA8883.0SEA837
1.0T, 1.2T 1.4TS, 1.6T?EA111/211VW Group1.4T, 1.6THR1.2TD Series0.9T, 1.2TS SeriesRen-Niss
1.0T, 1.2TEB0/EB2PSA1.6TFamily One1.0, 1.4TFamily ZeroOpel1.6T, 2.0TEcoBoost1.0TFoxFord1.8TFamily B
1.4TFIRE0.9TSGEFiat
3.5, 4.7TM276, M2781.8TM271 EVO
1.6TM270Daimler
2.0TN2X
1.5T, 1.6TN38, N18BMW
DetailEngine FamilyGroup
0
1
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2015
2016
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Boo
sted
vol
(mn
units
)
05101520253035404550
Boo
sted
sha
re (%
)
Volume Share 2
• Gasoline boosting: 20% now, 46% by 2017
– Two thirds of all LV engines will be boosted
• Gasoline DI: 14% now, 50%+ by 2017
• Weighted average CC: 1.7L now, 1.5L 2017• Weighted average cylinders: fewer than 4 by 2017
Boosting of Europe Gasoline LV Build
Key Gasoline Sector FE Technologies
Source: J.D.Power European Engine & Transmission Forecast
8© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Gasoline Engine PerformancePositive Outlook for Gasoline:• Gasoline will re-assert power
advantage over diesel as boostingimproves specific outputs
• Diesel sector output will beconstrained by emissionsrequirements and cost of furtherdevelopment
• 2001-2017 growth in power:– Gasoline 21%– Diesel 24%
• ‘Driveability’ of gasoline sector willimprove substantially this decade
• Diesel retains significant torqueadvantage, but average values willnot increase much more
• Gasoline will narrow the FE gap,but diesel maintains an advantageof circa 20% in like-for-likeperformance
Weighted Average Engine Power - Europe LV Assembly
9095
100105110
115120125130
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Engi
ne P
ower
(PS)
Gasoline Diesel
Weighted Average Engine Torque - Europe LV Assembly
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Engi
ne T
orqu
e (N
m)
Gasoline Diesel
9© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Trends in Transmission Type
Transmission Fitment to European LV Assembly
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 201765%
70%
75%
80%
85%
AT AMT CVT DCT Unknown MT (RHS)
• Major change is the increase indemand for DCTs
• Near-manual efficiency butlower cost than planetary auto
• Will impact most on the MTsector
• Premium sector will stick withAT for ultimate comfort
• AMT will be used for gasolinemedium and small cars
• CVT restricted to Japanesebrands
• Number of speeds will grow inAT sector – up to 9 speeds by2020
• MT sector to be dominated by6-speed
• Auto (all types) 18% in 2009,27% in 2017
Source: J.D.Power European Engine & Transmission Forecast
10© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Vehicle Electrification
Now• 1mn global hybrid vehicle sales in 2010 (100k in Europe)• Equivalent to 2.0% of global car sales• 10.5% share in Japan, 2.8% in US, 0.7% in Europe• Toyota Prius became best selling car in Japan in 2009• 40% increase in global hybrid demand in 2009, 25% expected 2010
Looking ahead…• Regulators pushing hard for low carbon solutions• Europe EV build – circa 150k by 2015 (OEMs say more)• EV incentives, subsidies, bonuses: €15bn globally over 5 years• Over 130 hybrid / EV models identified for Europe by 2020• Oil price is trending up again
11© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
EVs• Big subsidies & cheap fuel = ownership cost similar to alternatives?
• Fuel costs are less than 20% of gasoline equivalent
• Zero powertrain maintenance
• High residual values anticipated – better leasing costs
• Good launch performance
• Range - less of a problem than thought?
• Growth dictated by charging point availability
• Lack of common charging standards a barrier at present
• In some markets, electricity generation may come under strain
• EVs only make sense if using ‘clean’ fuel
• Track record of EV projects is not good
• Will it be ‘different this time’?
12© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
EV Incentives – Europe Big 5Stimulus / Target Country Action
France 100k 2011/2012Germany 1mn by 2020Italy No targets announcedSpain 1mn hybrid / EV (of which 250k plug-in) by 2014UK London: 100k 'soon'
France Up to !5kGermany Exempt from road tax for 5 yearsItaly !3.5KSpain Up to !6kUK Up to !5k
France !1.5bnGermany !500mnItaly No specific package announcedSpain !590mn to 2012UK !290mn (from 2011)
France Government to buy 50k EVs, mostly Renault and PSAGermany Research incentivesItaly Has 'Plans to support'Spain No specific package announcedUK !810mn loan to UK OEMs
France 500k in 3 yearsGermany Local projects onlyItaly Local schemesSpain No target; Part of !590mn fund usedUK !23mn for 4 regional pilots; London: target 25k by 2015
Infrastructure Target
EV Target
Sales Incentive
Support Package
Help for OEMs
13© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Hybrids
• 75k sales in Europe in 2009, circa 100k expected 2010
• 70% full hybrid, 30% mild hybrid
• Incentives are there, but lower than for EVs
• Choice of 7 mainstream models in 2009, up to 75 by 2015
• Full hybrids likely to dominate due to greater FE
• Reasons for purchase differ according to segment:– FE for non-premium midsize cars– Performance for premium and SUV segment
• 2011 will bring the diesel hybrid
• Plug-in versions to follow when hybrids are established
• But let’s not forget the conventional diesel sector
14© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
OtherAWD/4WD CapabilityEnvironmental Impact
Better WarrantyHigh Resale Value
Passenger CapacityDealer Was Convenient/Liked Dealer in my Area
Advanced Technology of VehicleLow Maintenance Costs
PerformanceLike Image the Vehicle Portrays
Boot SpaceQuality of Workmanship
Low price or Payment/Ability to Obtain FinancingThe "Deal"
Exterior StylingSafety
Fuel ConsumptionInterior Comfort
Reliability/Durability
France Germany UK
Reasons for Vehicle Purchase
*
Most Important Factors in Owners’ Choice of Specific Make/Model – 2009 Survey
Source: J.D.Power 2009 European Vehicle Ownership Satisfaction Studies (VOSS). Annual survey of owners of vehicles after an average of two years ofownership.
*
15© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
European Hybrid / EV Market Evolution
0
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1,200
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Sale
s ('0
00s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
EV Volume Hybrid Volume EV Share Hybrid Share
Hybrid / EV Outlook• 1.7mn sales by 2020• 8.5mn hybrid / EV on the road• Hybrids will dominate for many years• EV growth likely to accelerate post-2020
MHEV14%
FHEV37%
PHEV8%
EREV4%
BEV37%
FCEV0%
Hybrid / EV Market by Type 2020
• Plug-in will lagconventional hybrid
• Range extenders goodidea, but limitedinvestment so far
• Gasoline hybrid maynot give sufficient FEgain to compete withdiesel
• Fuel cell as rangeextender may emergecirca 2017
16© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Segment Distribution
• By 2020 midsize hybrids will dominate as the technology spreads into mainstream cars• SUVs are strong candidates for hybridisation and volumes will grow• EV numbers are low at present, market is dominated by a few city cars and Sports cars• Moving forward, small cars will come to dominate the sector over this period
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2020
Small Midsize Large Sports SUV Other
Hybrid EV
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2020
Small Midsize Large Sports Other
17© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Premium, non-Premium MixHybrid EV
• Early hybrid growth will be in the large car and SUV segments, mostly premium• As hybrids become more mainstream, non-premium will grow faster• Many current EVs are premium sports cars• Market will quickly move to small, mostly non-premium conventional cars
0%
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40%
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100%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Premium Non-premium All premium
0%
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40%
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100%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Premium Non-Premium All Premium
18© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Fisker
PSA
Mitsu
Think!
Tesla
Daimler R-N
OEM Distribution•
050100150200250300350
R-N
VW PSA GM BM
W
Mitsubishi
Daimler
Ford
Toyota
FiatOther
EV 2010 EV 2020
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Toyota Honda Daimler VW BMW
0
50
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150200
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Toyota VW
HondaPSA
DaimlerBMWFordGeely
HyundaiR-N Ot
her
Hybrid 2010 Hybrid 2020
Thou
sand
sTh
ousa
nds
19© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Inputs to CO2 Reduction 2008 to 2020
CO2 reduction from 153.5gm/km (2008) to 95gm/km (expected 2020 target)
IC measures (gasoline)
IC measures (diesel)stop-start
'eco' measures
biofuels
BEV
EREV
HEVLPG/CNG
other
segment shifts
transmission
lightweighting
Contribution byCategory:
• IC optimisation 33%
• Vehicle 26%• Electrification 14%
• Market 14%
• Fuels 10%
• Other 3%
20© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
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CO2
gm/k
m
Actual (ACEA) 2009 Estimate (JDPA)
CO2 Phase-Down - Key Powertrain Steps
165-170
140
95
130
120
ACEA-EU CO2 Targets
SequentialMPFI
Diesel IC / VehicleOptimisation
PTElectrification
Cheap Oil, PoliticalDeadlock
CO2 Reduction• Pre-1998, gasoline sector was key
• Diesel boom 1998 – 2004
• Focus has now shifted from diesel
• Little progress 2004-2006
• Current focus is on PToptimisation, esp. gasoline
• And vehicle measures
• PT electrification will play a biggerpart post-2017
• EREV & BEV likely long-termwinners (post 2020)
21© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
Conclusions
• 2009’s big drop in fleet CO2 will be hard to repeat in 2010
• Diesel has peaked but remains vital for CO2 conformity
• DI & turbocharging are moving from diesel to gasoline (fast)
• Despite exciting changes, IC architecture evolves slowly
• Transmissions: Auto will gain the upper hand by 2025
• Europe’s electrified powertrain market: 1.7mn cars by 2020– Hybrids will dominate until at least 2020
– Plug-ins (mostly BEV) will grow fastest after 2020
• It’s evolution not revolution, but the pace is hotting up!
22© 2010 J.D. Power and Associates,The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.All Rights Reserved.
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