APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

1

Evaluating andCommunicating Natural Hazard Risks

New Zealand Case StudyPeter Higgs President IPWEA NZCivil Defence Group Controller

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

2

Pacific Ring of Fire

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

3

Christchurch City February 2011

• Vertical accelerations > 2g• Energy = 5 Hiroshima bombs• 1 in 2500 year event

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

4

Volcanoes

Ngaruahoe 1995

Auckland – the largest City

Cylone Bola Gisborne 1988

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

5

Tsunami(near and far)

Turihaua(Gisborne) 1947

Chile 2015

Coastal Erosion, and Inundation and Storms

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

6

Land Slips

Snow

Drought

2013 (Not for 70 years)

Climate Change

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

7

Resilience – Bounce back but stronger – An Integrated Approach

Uncertain future Be agile and adaptive Sea Level Rise – design for it now, but side effects – flood frequency,

groundwater level, salt water intrusion Smarter designs – repairable, components, redundancy Sharing data, communities, across agencies We are now so well connected – what if connections fail? We have smart infrastructure – what if power, internet fails… Integrating “engineered” with natural processes Financial Risk Planning – integrated with Asset Management If all else fails – what is our plan?

He tangata, he tangata, he tangata - It is the people - community

Building Resilience =De-Risking Strategy

From the Cost of Risk

To theGUARANTEE OFPERFORMANCE

• Investment in development has been about business opportunities• Not about Managing Risks

• Even Climate Change Adaptation Plans driven by “pay back period”• Not by delivering on safer communities

• Near Term vs Long Term – e.g. political election cycle

• Not just focus on the “assets” – the service they deliver

• Develop the risk mitigations – through hazard identification, assessment, preparedness, response, financial planning and recovery - immediate and long term

• Focus on Community aims/aspirations to deliver GUARANTEE OF PERFORMANCE

“The Sea Change”

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

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9

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10

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

11

Training in Schools, businesses

National Training Exercise

CD Websites

Apps

Council Websites – One “Version of the Truth”

Media

Near and Far Threats

Self Evacuation• If you feel a Large Earthquake• Or longer than a minute• Move To beyond the Tsunami zone

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12

• Local Community Groups

• Neighbourhood Support Groups

• National

• Regional

• District

APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016

13

NATIONAL EXERCISE

31 August14 September28 September

• SO WHAT ARE WE DOING IN NZ? - A NEW STRATEGIC APPROACH

• Incorporating all risks into investment decision making – Guarantee of Performance – not just Managing the Cost of Risk or Disaster Response

• Asset Management and Financial Planning focus on risk, criticality, vulnerability

• Town Planning – long term

• Agility

• Community responsibility/ownership – Be prepared

• Community resilience – their aspirations driving performance