Upload File

evaluating ebola as a biological weapon _ stratfor

  • Home
  • Documents
  • Evaluating Ebola as a Biological Weapon _ Stratfor
5
 12/ 11/2014 Eval uating Ebol a as a Bi ol ogical Weapon | Strat for  http:/ /www.str atfor.com/weekl y/evaluating-ebol a-biological-weapon#axzz3LYI2zVeV 1/5 Tweet  373  Tweet  373 Evaluating Ebola as a Biological Weapon Security Weekly  OCTOBER 23, 2014 | 08:00 GMT   Print  Text Size By Scott Stewart Over the past few weeks, I've had people at speaking engagements ask me if I thought the Islamic State or some other militant group is using Ebola as a biological weapon, or if such a group could do so in the future. Such questions and concerns ar e not surprising given the intense media hype that surrounds the disease, even though only one person has died from Ebola out of the three confirmed cases in the United States. The media hype about the threat posed by the Islamic State to the United States and the West is almost as bad. Both subjects of all this hype were combined into a tidy package on Oct. 20, when the Washington Post published an editorial by columnist Mark Thiessen in which he claimed it would be easy for a group such as the Islamic State to use Ebola in a terrorist attack. D espite Thiessen's claims, using Ebola as a biological warfare agent is much more difficult than it might appear at first blush. The 2014 Outbreak In the past, there have been several outbrea ks of Ebola in Africa. Countries included Sudan, Uganda, the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and several comparatively small outbreaks occurred in Gabon as well. In most cases, people who handled or ate animals infected with the disease started the outbreaks. "Bushmeat," or portions of roasted meat from a variety of wild animals, is considered by many to be a delicacy in Africa, and in a continent where hunger is widespread, it is also a necessity for many hungry people. After several months of medical investigations, epidemiologists believe the current outbreak most likely began when a two-year-old child in Guinea touched or perhaps ate part of an infected animal such as a bat or monkey. The source of the disease means it is highly unlikely that some malevolent actor intentionally caused the latest outbreak. Besides the fact that the current outbreak's cause has been identified as a natural one, even if a transnational militant group such as the Islamic State was able to somehow develop an Ebola weapon, it would have chosen to deploy the weapon against a far more desirable target than a small village in Guinea. We would have seen the militants use their weapon in a location such as New York, Paris or London, or 996 Like

Upload: jill-bacasmas

Post on 03-Nov-2015

217 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

Report

DESCRIPTION

Evaluating Ebola as a Biological Weapon

TRANSCRIPT

  • 12/11/2014 EvaluatingEbolaasaBiologicalWeapon|Stratfor

    http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/evaluatingebolabiologicalweapon#axzz3LYI2zVeV 1/5

    Tweet 373 Tweet 373

    Evaluating Ebola as a Biological WeaponSecurityWeekly OCTOBER23,2014|08:00GMTPrint TextSize

    ByScottStewart

    Overthepastfewweeks,I'vehadpeopleatspeakingengagementsaskmeifIthoughttheIslamicStateorsomeothermilitantgroupisusingEbolaasabiologicalweapon,orifsuchagroupcoulddosointhefuture.Suchquestionsandconcernsarenotsurprisinggiventheintensemediahypethatsurroundsthedisease,eventhoughonlyonepersonhasdiedfromEbolaoutofthethreeconfirmedcasesintheUnited

    States.ThemediahypeaboutthethreatposedbytheIslamicStatetotheUnitedStatesandtheWestisalmostasbad.BothsubjectsofallthishypewerecombinedintoatidypackageonOct.20,whentheWashingtonPostpublishedaneditorialbycolumnistMarkThiesseninwhichheclaimeditwouldbeeasyforagroupsuchastheIslamicStatetouseEbolainaterroristattack.DespiteThiessen'sclaims,usingEbolaasabiologicalwarfareagentismuchmoredifficultthanitmightappearatfirstblush.

    The 2014 Outbreak

    Inthepast,therehavebeenseveraloutbreaksofEbolainAfrica.CountriesincludedSudan,Uganda,theRepublicoftheCongoandtheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,andseveralcomparativelysmalloutbreaksoccurredinGabonaswell.Inmostcases,peoplewhohandledorateanimalsinfectedwiththediseasestartedtheoutbreaks."Bushmeat,"orportionsofroastedmeatfromavarietyofwildanimals,isconsideredbymanytobeadelicacyinAfrica,andinacontinentwherehungeriswidespread,itisalsoanecessityformanyhungrypeople.Afterseveralmonthsofmedicalinvestigations,epidemiologistsbelievethecurrentoutbreakmostlikelybeganwhenatwoyearoldchildinGuineatouchedorperhapsatepartofaninfectedanimalsuchasabatormonkey.

    Thesourceofthediseasemeansitishighlyunlikelythatsomemalevolentactorintentionallycausedthelatestoutbreak.Besidesthefactthatthecurrentoutbreak'scausehasbeenidentifiedasanaturalone,evenifatransnationalmilitantgroupsuchastheIslamicStatewasabletosomehowdevelopanEbolaweapon,itwouldhavechosentodeploytheweaponagainstafarmoredesirabletargetthanasmallvillageinGuinea.WewouldhaveseenthemilitantsusetheirweaponinalocationsuchasNewYork,ParisorLondon,or

    996Like

  • 12/11/2014 EvaluatingEbolaasaBiologicalWeapon|Stratfor

    http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/evaluatingebolabiologicalweapon#axzz3LYI2zVeV 2/5

    againsttheirlocalenemiesinSyriaandIraq.

    Asfarasintentgoes,thereisverylittledoubtthatsuchagroupwouldemployabiologicalweapon.AswenotedlastmonthwhentherewasincreasedtalkabouttheIslamicStatepossiblyweaponizingplagueforabiologicalattack,terroristattacksareintendedtohaveapsychologicalimpactthatoutweighsthephysicaldamagetheycause.TheIslamicStateitselfhasalonghistoryofconductingbrutalactionstofosterpanic.

    In2006and2007,theIslamicState'spredecessor,alQaedainIraq,includedlargequantitiesofchlorineinvehiclebombsdeployedagainstU.S.andIraqitroopsinanattempttoproducemasscasualties.Theexplosivesinthevehiclebombskilledmorepeoplethanthechlorinedid,andafterseveralunsuccessfulattempts,alQaedainIraqgaveuponitschlorinebombingsbecausetheresultswerenotworththeeffort.AlQaedainIraqalsoincludedchemicalartilleryroundsinimprovisedexplosivedevicesusedinattacksagainstAmericantroopsinIraqonseveraloccasions.Again,theseattacksfailedtoproducemasscasualties.Finally,accordingtohumanrightsorganizations,theIslamicStateappearstohaverecentlyusedsomeartilleryroundscontainingmustardgasagainstitsenemiesinSyriathegrouppresumablyrecoveredtheroundsfromaformerSaddamerachemicalweaponsfacilityinIraqorfromSyrianstockpiles.

    Theproblem,then,liesnotwiththeIslamicState'sintentbutinsteadwithitscapabilitytoobtainandweaponizetheEbolavirus.Creatingabiologicalweaponisfarmoredifficultthanusingachemicalsuchaschlorineormanufacturedchemicalmunitions.Contrarytohowthemediafrequentlyportraysthem,biologicalweaponsarenoteasytoobtain,theyarenoteasytodeployeffectivelyandtheydonotalwayscausemasscasualties.

    The Difficulty of Weaponization

    Ebolaandterrorismarenotnew.NoristhepossibilityofterroristgroupsusingtheEbolavirusinanattack.Aswehavepreviouslynoted,theJapanesecultAumShinrikyoattemptedtoobtaintheEbolavirusaspartofitsbiologicalwarfareprogram.ThegroupsentamedicalteamtoAfricaunderthepretextofbeingaidworkerswiththeintentofobtainingsamplesofthevirus.Itfailedinthatmission,butevenifithadsucceeded,thegroupwouldhavefacedthechallengeofgettingthesamplebacktoitsbiologicalwarfarelaboratoryinJapan.TheEbolavirusisrelativelyfragile.Itslifetimeondrysurfacesoutsideofahostisonlyacoupleofhours,andwhilesomestudieshaveshownthattheviruscansurviveonsurfacesfordayswhenstillinbodilyfluids,thisrequiresidealconditionsthatwouldbedifficulttoreplicateduringtransport.

    Ifthegrouphadbeenabletogetthevirusbacktoitslaboratory,itwouldhavethenfacedthechallengeofreproducingtheEbolaviruswithenoughvolumetobeusedinalargescalebiologicalwarfareattack,similartoitsfailedattacksonTokyoandotherJapanesecitiesinwhichthegroupsprayedthousandsofgallonsofbotulinumtoxinandAnthraxspores.ReproducingtheEbolaviruswouldpresentadditionalchallengesbecauseitisanextremelydangerousvirustoworkwith.Ithasinfectedresearchers,evenwhentheywereworkinginlaboratorieswithadvancedbiosafetymeasuresinplace.AlthoughAumShinrikyohadalargestaffoftrainedscientistsandastateoftheartbiologicalweaponslaboratory,itwasstillunabletoeffectivelyweaponizethevirus.

    ThechallengesAumShinrikyo'sbiologicalweaponsprogramfacedwouldbemultipliedfortheIslamicState.AumShinrikyooperativesweregivenagreatdealofoperationalfreedomuntiltheirplanswerediscoveredafterthe1995sarinattacksontheTokyosubway.(Thegroup'spreviousbiologicalweaponsattacksweresounsuccessfulthatnobodyknewtheyhadbeencarriedoutuntilafteritsmemberswerearrestedanditschemicalandbiologicalweaponsfactorieswereraided.)UnliketheJapanesecult,theIslamicState'severymoveisunderheavyscrutinybymostoftheworld'sintelligenceandsecurityagencies.Thismeansjihadist

  • 12/11/2014 EvaluatingEbolaasaBiologicalWeapon|Stratfor

    http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/evaluatingebolabiologicalweapon#axzz3LYI2zVeV 3/5

    operativeswouldhavefarmoredifficultyassemblingthepersonnelandequipmentneededtoconstructabiologicalweaponslaboratory.SincerandomlyencounteringaninfectedEbolapatientwouldbeunreliable,thegroupwouldhavetotraveltoacountryimpactedbytheoutbreak.Thiswouldbeadifficulttaskforthegrouptocompletewithoutdrawingattentiontoitself.Furthermore,oncegroupmembersreachedtheinfectedcountries,theywouldhavetoenterquarantinedareasofmedicalfacilities,retrievethesamplesandthenescapethecountryunnoticed,sincetheycouldnotcountonrandomlyencounteringaninfectedEbolapatient.

    EvenifIslamicStateoperativesweresomehowabletoaccomplishallofthiswithoutkillingthemselvesintheprocessEbolaisnotanidealbiologicalwarfarevector.Thevirusishardtopassfrompersontoperson.Infact,onaverage,itsbasicreproductiverate(theaverageamountofpeoplethatareinfectedbyanEbolapatient)isonlybetweenoneandtwopeople.Therearefarmoreinfectiousdiseasessuchasmeasles,whichhasabasicreproductiverateof1218,orsmallpox,whichhasabasicreproductiverateoffivetoseven.EvenHIV,whichisonlypassedviasexualcontactorintravenousbloodtransmission,hasabasicreproductiverateoftwotofive.

    Ebola's Weakness as a Weapon

    TheEboladiseaseisalsosomewhatslowtotakeeffect,andinfectedindividualsdonotbecomesymptomaticandcontagiousforanaverageof810days.Thedisease'sfullincubationperiodcanlastanywherefromtwoto21days.Asacomparison,influenza,whichcanbetransmittedasquicklyasthreedaysafterbeingcontracted,canbespreadbeforesymptomsbeginshowing.ThismeansthatanEbolaattackwouldtakelongertospreadandwouldbeeasiertocontainbecauseinfectedpeoplewouldbeeasiertoidentify.

    BesidesthefactthatEbolacanonlybepassedthroughthebodilyfluidsofapersonshowingsymptomsatthetime,thevirusinthosebodilyfluidsmustalsosomehowbypasstheprotectionofaperson'sskin.Theinfectiousfluidmustenterthebodythroughacutorabrasion,orcomeintocontactwiththemucusmembranesintheeyes,noseormouth.Thisisdifferentfrommorecontagiousviruseslikemeaslesandsmallpox,whichareairbornevirusesanddonotrequireanydirectcontactortransferofbodilyfluids.Additionally,theEbolavirusisquitefragileandsensitivetolight,heatandlowhumidityenvironments,andbleachandothercommondisinfectantscankillit.Thismeansitisdifficulttospreadthevirusbycontaminatingsurfaceswithit.TheonlywaytoinfectalargeamountofpeoplewithEbolawouldbetospraythemwithafluidcontainingthevirus,somethingthatwouldbedifficulttodoandeasilydetectable.

    Thiessen'spiecesuggestedthattheIslamicStatemightimplementanattackstrategyofinfectingsuicideoperativeswithEbolaandthenhavingthemblowthemselvesupinacrowdedplace,sprayingpeoplewithinfectedbodilyfluids.Oneproblemwiththisscenarioisthatitwouldbeextremelydifficulttogetaninfectedoperativefromthegroup'slaboratorytotheUnitedStateswithoutbeingdetected.Aswehavediscussedelsewhere,jihadistgroupshavestruggledtogetoperativestotheWesttoconductconventionalterroristattacksusinggunsandbombs,aconstraintthatwouldalsoaffecttheirabilitytodeployabiologicalweapon.

    Evenifahostilegroupdidmangetogetanoperativeinplace,itwouldstillfaceseveralimportantobstacles.BythetimeEbolapatientsarehighlycontagious,theyarenormallyveryillandbedriddenwithhighfever,fatigue,vomitinganddiarrhea,meaningtheyarenotstrongenoughtowalkintoacrowdedarea.Theheatandshockofthesuicidedevice'sexplosionwouldlikelykillmostofthevirus.Anyonecloseenoughtobeexposedtotheviruswouldalsolikelybeinjuredbytheblastandtakentoahospital,wheretheywouldthenbequarantinedandtreatedforthevirus.

    Biologicalweaponslookgreatinthemovies,buttheyaredifficultandexpensivetodevelopinreallife.Thatiswhywehaverarelyseenthemusedinterroristattacks.Aswehavenotedforadecadenow,jihadistscankill

  • 12/11/2014 EvaluatingEbolaasaBiologicalWeapon|Stratfor

    http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/evaluatingebolabiologicalweapon#axzz3LYI2zVeV 4/5

    farmorepeoplewithfarlessexpenseandeffortbyutilizingtraditionalterroristtactics,whichmakesthethreatofasuccessfulattackusingtheEbolavirusextremelyunlikely.

    Tweet 373 Tweet 373

    Reprintingorrepublicationofthisreportonwebsitesisauthorizedbyprominentlydisplayingthefollowingsentence,includingthehyperlinktoStratfor,atthebeginningorendofthereport.

    "EvaluatingEbolaasaBiologicalWeaponisrepublishedwithpermissionofStratfor."

    Simplycopyandpastethiscode:

    "EvaluatingEbolaasaBiologicalWeaponisrepublishedwithpermissionofStratfor."

    ARTICLE AUTHOR

    Scott StewartScottStewartsupervisesStratfor'sanalysisofterrorismandsecurityissues.BeforejoiningStratfor,hewasaspecialagentwiththeU.S.StateDepartmentfor10yearsandwasinvolvedinhundredsofterrorisminvestigations.

    View Full Biography

    Get our FREE weekly Intelligence Reports

    EnterYourEmailAddress

    GET REPORTS!

    Join over 350,000 readers on our FREE intel reports list.

    Wewillneversellorshareyouremailaddressorinformationwithanyone.

    Sendusyourthoughtsonthisreport.

    996Like

    EDITOR'S CHOICE

    Mexico's Normalista Protests Threaten to Spread

  • 12/11/2014 EvaluatingEbolaasaBiologicalWeapon|Stratfor

    http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/evaluatingebolabiologicalweapon#axzz3LYI2zVeV 5/5

    Lower Oil Prices Carry Geopolitical Consequences FREE

    Torture and the U.S. Intelligence Failure FREE


ABOUT STRATFOR 1 STRATFOR SERVICES CONTACT STRATFOR · 2014. 1. 14. · STRATFOR is the world’s leading private intelligence firm providing corporations, governments and individuals

143073 STRATFOR Global Vantage Global 7 05

STRATFOR Decade Forecast: 2015-2025

Stratfor Net Assessments: The Soviet Union February 2, 2007 Russia

Annual Forecast 2014 Stratfor

STRATFOR Global Vantage EastAsia 11 05--REV 3 · 2014. 1. 13. · Stratfor is the world’s leading privateintelligence firm providing corporations, governmentsand individuals withintelligence

Ebola virus disease/ Ebola outbreak

2422 Stratfor Gift Membership Form

1417 STRATFOR 2007 Annual Forecast

Japan's Intelligence Reform Inches Forward _3!2!15 Stratfor

Cuba's Problems Beyond the Embargo _ Stratfor

140148 Stratfor Global Vantage Fsu 6 05

Stratfor QII Forecast 2014

Stratfor Annual Forecast 2016 - ETH Z Annual... · 2016. 5. 3. · Stratfor Annual Forecast 2016 December 28, 2015 With old geopolitical realities resurfacing across Eurasia and commodity

Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease).doc

Stratfor Computer Forensic Investigation

147347 STRATFOR Global Vantage EastAsia 7 05

The STRATFOR Voice Sept. 7, 2011

STRATFOR 2011 Internal Doc Russian Energy Investments in Balkans

A War Between Two Worlds | Stratfor - Yaşar …ayildiz.yasar.edu.tr/.../2011/01/A-War-Between-Two-Worlds-Stratfor.… · A War Between Two Worlds | Stratfor 15/09/16 22:41 Page 3

140150 STRATFOR Global Vantage LatAmer 6 05

Sterling Stratfor 017

STRATFOR Writing 101 Sept. 2, 2010. STRATFOR Writing 101 “Vigorous writing is concise. A sentence should contain no unnecessary words, a paragraph no

STRATFOR Writing 101 Sept. 2, 2010

Stratfor 203: Ancient Civilizations

STRATFOR Writing 101 July 1, 2011. STRATFOR Writing 101 “Vigorous writing is concise. A sentence should contain no unnecessary words, a paragraph no unnecessary

121442_20 Morenz - Stratfor - Services Agreement

The STRATFOR Voice Oct. 10, 2011

140149 STRATFOR Global Vantage MidEast 6 05

140147 STRATFOR Global Vantage EastAsia 6 05

Stratfor Private Client List

147346 Stratfor Global Vantage Fsu 7 05

The Geopolitics of Mexico_ a Mountain Fortress Besieged _ Stratfor

STRATFOR RESEARCH

STRATFOR Global Intelligence Brand Initiative Proposal 24 June 2011