Evaluating Peace Evaluating Peace InitiativesInitiatives

““How do we know we’re doing How do we know we’re doing good?”good?”

Group 13Group 13Dana StrasbergDana Strasberg

Stephanie Sun Stephanie Sun Bourke Tillman Bourke Tillman

Adam Tracey Adam Tracey Alexandra Tse Alexandra Tse

Emily UhrigEmily UhrigAndrea ValoisAndrea Valois

Special ReportSpecial Report

AgendaAgenda

1.1. Introduction – EmilyIntroduction – Emily

2.2. Framework – Andrea & Framework – Andrea & AlexandraAlexandra

3.3. Methodology – BourkeMethodology – Bourke

4.4. Indicators – StephanieIndicators – Stephanie

5.5. Class Activity – DanaClass Activity – Dana

6.6. Conclusion - AdamConclusion - Adam

ObjectivesObjectives

☑ To understand the necessity and To understand the necessity and importance of evaluating peace importance of evaluating peace initiatives.initiatives.

☑ To gain an understanding of the To gain an understanding of the complexity and difficulties in complexity and difficulties in evaluating peace initiatives.evaluating peace initiatives.

☑ To provide a framework and To provide a framework and methodology in which to evaluate methodology in which to evaluate the effectiveness of peace initiatives.the effectiveness of peace initiatives.

Introduction: Evaluating Introduction: Evaluating Peace WorkPeace Work

☑Weak area of peace-building Weak area of peace-building knowledgeknowledge

☑Good intentions ≠ positive Good intentions ≠ positive impactsimpacts

☑Never too early for evaluationNever too early for evaluation☑PtH evaluation is in its infancyPtH evaluation is in its infancy

Evaluating Peace Evaluating Peace Programming: Collaborative Programming: Collaborative

for Development Action for Development Action (CDA) (CDA)

“Reflecting on Peace “Reflecting on Peace Practice Project” Practice Project”

Two Levels of EffectivenessTwo Levels of Effectiveness

1.1. The Program LevelThe Program Level☑ Are the specific activities of our Are the specific activities of our

program achieving their intended program achieving their intended goals?goals?

2.2. The Peace Writ Large LevelThe Peace Writ Large Level☑ In meeting our specific program In meeting our specific program

goals, is our initiative contributing to goals, is our initiative contributing to the bigger picture?the bigger picture?

Evaluating the Evaluating the Effectiveness of Peace Effectiveness of Peace Programming at the Programming at the ‘Peace Writ Large’ ‘Peace Writ Large’

LevelLevel

5 Steps of the Process5 Steps of the Process1.1. The Goal The Goal (Where are we going?)(Where are we going?)

2.2. Analysis of Context Analysis of Context (Where are we (Where are we now?) now?)

3.3. Program Planning/Design Program Planning/Design (What can (What can we do to go from here to there?)we do to go from here to there?)

4.4. Implementation Implementation (How shall we do (How shall we do it?)it?)

5.5. Outcomes Outcomes (With what results?)(With what results?)

1. Where are we going?1. Where are we going? – – Evaluating the Goals of Evaluating the Goals of

Peace ProgrammingPeace Programming☑To end violence and destructive To end violence and destructive

conflictconflict☑To build a just, sustainable peaceTo build a just, sustainable peace

☑The Question:The Question: What is our particular What is our particular project doing to achieve these goals?project doing to achieve these goals?

☑The Task:The Task: To link specific program To link specific program goals to Peace Writ Largegoals to Peace Writ Large

Four Criteria for Assessing Four Criteria for Assessing EffectivenessEffectiveness

1.1. Will our initiative cause participants and Will our initiative cause participants and communities to develop their own initiatives communities to develop their own initiatives for peace?for peace?

2.2. Will our initiative result in the creation or Will our initiative result in the creation or reform of political institutions to handle the reform of political institutions to handle the grievances fuelling the conflict?grievances fuelling the conflict?

3.3. Will our initiative prompt people Will our initiative prompt people increasingly to resist violence and increasingly to resist violence and provocations to violence?provocations to violence?

4.4. Will our initiative result in an increase in Will our initiative result in an increase in people’s security and in their sense of people’s security and in their sense of security? security?

2. Where are we now?2. Where are we now? – – Analyzing the ContextAnalyzing the Context

☑ The Question:The Question: Why is there violence Why is there violence and destructive conflict? and destructive conflict? ☑What needs to be stopped and What needs to be stopped and

who will resist inside the context who will resist inside the context of conflict?of conflict?

☑What and who need to be What and who need to be supported inside the context of supported inside the context of conflict?conflict?

Analyzing the ContextAnalyzing the Context

☑What needs to be stopped and who What needs to be stopped and who will resist outside the conflict area?will resist outside the conflict area?

☑What and who need to be What and who need to be supported outside the conflict supported outside the conflict area?area?

☑ The Task:The Task: To identify the most pressing To identify the most pressing issues and identify areas of common issues and identify areas of common ground as the basis for peacebuilding.ground as the basis for peacebuilding.

3. What can we do to go 3. What can we do to go from here to there?from here to there? – – Program Planning and Program Planning and

DesignDesign☑ The Question:The Question: What shall we do to go from What shall we do to go from

the current situation to the desired the current situation to the desired outcomes?outcomes?

☑ The Task:The Task: Consider program options to Consider program options to determine the best course of action, determine the best course of action, considering:considering:☑Personal/Individual Level vs. Personal/Individual Level vs.

Socio/Political LevelSocio/Political Level☑More People vs. Key PeopleMore People vs. Key People

Program Planning and Program Planning and DesignDesign

☑The Benchmark:The Benchmark: Which option Which option will be most beneficial, will be most beneficial, considering:considering:☑UrgencyUrgency of Change of Change☑SustainedSustained Change Change☑ProportionalityProportionality of Change of Change

4. How shall we do it?4. How shall we do it? – – Program ImplementationProgram Implementation

☑The Question:The Question: How shall we work How shall we work to do what we have planned?to do what we have planned?

☑The Task:The Task: To ensure that our To ensure that our styles and approaches are styles and approaches are consistent with our goals, consistent with our goals, considering:considering:

Program Implementation: Program Implementation: Keeping the Means Keeping the Means

Consistent with the EndsConsistent with the Ends

Peace programming…Peace programming…☑ ……is honestis honest☑ ……values lifevalues life☑ ……is reliableis reliable☑ ……respects differencerespects difference☑ ……eschews violence and intimidationeschews violence and intimidation☑ ……commits to justice as essential to commits to justice as essential to

peacepeace☑ ……honours that peace belongs to honours that peace belongs to

those who make itthose who make it

Program Implementation: Program Implementation: Negative ImpactsNegative Impacts

☑The Question:The Question: Are there any ways Are there any ways that our initiative may have a that our initiative may have a negative impact?negative impact?

☑The Task:The Task: To anticipate and avoid To anticipate and avoid negative impacts by asking negative impacts by asking whether any aspects of our whether any aspects of our program:program:

Negative ImpactsNegative Impacts

Intensify existing divisionsIntensify existing divisionsIncrease danger for participantsIncrease danger for participantsReinforce structural or direct violenceReinforce structural or direct violenceDivert resources from more Divert resources from more

productive peace initiativesproductive peace initiativesIncrease cynicism and Increase cynicism and

discouragementdiscouragementDisempower local peopleDisempower local people

5. With what results?5. With what results? – – Evaluating the Outcomes of Evaluating the Outcomes of

Peace ProgrammingPeace Programming☑The Question:The Question: Did we move Did we move

things toward Peace Writ Large?things toward Peace Writ Large?

☑The Task:The Task: To link program To link program outcomes to goals and to outcomes to goals and to monitor weaknesses and monitor weaknesses and strengths in our peace initiativestrengths in our peace initiative

MethodologyMethodology

Randomized Controlled Randomized Controlled Trial Trial

☑Gold standard for performing a Gold standard for performing a studystudy

☑Participants randomly assigned Participants randomly assigned to control and treatment groupsto control and treatment groups

☑Indicators measured and Indicators measured and compared in each groupcompared in each group

☑ 95% probability ensures 95% probability ensures significance of resultssignificance of results

How a Randomized How a Randomized Controlled Trial Can Be Used Controlled Trial Can Be Used to Evaluate a PtH Initiativeto Evaluate a PtH Initiative

☑ Three major adjustments need to Three major adjustments need to be made:be made:

1.1. Redefinition of control groupRedefinition of control group

2.2. Different indicatorsDifferent indicators

3.3. Changes in the way indicators Changes in the way indicators are measuredare measured

Measuring Impact: Measuring Impact: Using Indicators to Using Indicators to

EvaluateEvaluate

Don’t wait, evaluate!Don’t wait, evaluate!

☑Monitor impact Monitor impact from the startfrom the start

☑Continuous, Continuous, “round-the-clock” “round-the-clock” evaluationevaluation

☑e.g. Peace and e.g. Peace and Conflict Impact Conflict Impact Assessment Assessment (PCIA)(PCIA)

Quality versus QuantityQuality versus Quantity

☑QualitativeQualitative indicators measure indicators measure qualityquality or relative degree or relative degreeExpressed as a descriptionExpressed as a description

☑QuantitativeQuantitative indicators measure indicators measure quantifiablequantifiable values valuesExpressed as a numberExpressed as a number

Quality versus Quantity Quality versus Quantity cont…cont…

☑Quality: Quality: The people are The people are

more involved.more involved.

☑Quantity: Quantity: Voter turnout Voter turnout

is up by 50%.is up by 50%.

Collection of DataCollection of Data☑How is it done?How is it done?

interviewsinterviewssurveyssurveysrecording statisticsrecording statistics

☑KEY: health KEY: health practitioner is in the practitioner is in the right place at the right place at the right time for data right time for data collectioncollection

Examples of IndicatorsExamples of Indicators☑Health indicatorsHealth indicators

Rate of infection by Rate of infection by communicable diseasecommunicable disease

Nutritional statusNutritional status

☑Psychological indicatorsPsychological indicatorsPrevalence of depressionPrevalence of depressionDesire for vengeanceDesire for vengeance

Examples of Indicators Examples of Indicators cont…cont…

☑Security indicatorsSecurity indicatorsInhumane prison Inhumane prison

conditionsconditionsNumber of Number of

killings in killings in violation of the violation of the rules of warrules of war

Examples of Indicators Examples of Indicators cont…cont…

☑Social indicatorsSocial indicatorsFreedom of thoughtFreedom of thoughtDegree of economic or employment Degree of economic or employment

discriminationdiscrimination

☑Political IndicatorsPolitical IndicatorsFair and free electionsFair and free electionsLevel of public political participationLevel of public political participation

Examples of Indicators Examples of Indicators cont…cont…

☑Juridical Juridical IndicatorsIndicatorsEquality Equality

under the under the lawlaw

Prosecution Prosecution of war of war criminalscriminals

The “Situation”The “Situation”☑ Poor, unstable country. Poor, unstable country. ☑ One religion and one ethnicity. One religion and one ethnicity. ☑ Health standards deplorableHealth standards deplorable☑ Government- Government-

dictatorshipdictatorship☑ Civilians- Civilians-

live in poverty and violencelive in poverty and violencepoor educationpoor educationsatisfied with health care system satisfied with health care system accept their way of life because never accept their way of life because never

experienced a higher standard of living experienced a higher standard of living

The “Situation” cont…The “Situation” cont…☑ Insurgents:Insurgents:

people from the country, against the people from the country, against the governmentgovernment

do not want to continue this lifedo not want to continue this lifehave not experienced a higher living have not experienced a higher living

standard, but feel they are being cheated standard, but feel they are being cheated out of opportunitiesout of opportunities

actively protest with violent acts targeting actively protest with violent acts targeting government buildings and organizationsgovernment buildings and organizations

actions affect both civilians and governmentactions affect both civilians and government

Class ActivityClass Activity

☑Class is divided into the Class is divided into the government, the civilians and government, the civilians and the insurgents the insurgents

☑Each group will brainstorm what Each group will brainstorm what peace initiatives they would like peace initiatives they would like to have implemented to help to have implemented to help accomplish their own ideology of accomplish their own ideology of peace peace

Actions for Achieving Actions for Achieving PeacePeace

☑ Each group believes peace will occur Each group believes peace will occur if:if:

☑ Civilians:Civilians: change/overthrow the dictatorship by change/overthrow the dictatorship by

nonviolent meansnonviolent meansreduction of violence from insurgentsreduction of violence from insurgentsincreased accessibility to education and increased accessibility to education and

health care health care ☑ Government:Government: removal of the rebels removal of the rebels☑ Rebels:Rebels: removal of the government removal of the government

4 Goals of Peace Projects4 Goals of Peace Projects

1.1. Causes participants and Causes participants and communities to develop their own communities to develop their own initiatives for peace initiatives for peace

2.2. Results in the creation or reform Results in the creation or reform of political institutions to handle of political institutions to handle grievances that fuel the conflictgrievances that fuel the conflict

3.3. Increases resistance to violence Increases resistance to violence

4.4. Increases peoples’ securityIncreases peoples’ security

ChallengesChallenges in Peace in Peace EvaluationEvaluation

☑ Self-evaluation:Self-evaluation:often the same as peace evaluationsoften the same as peace evaluations

☑ Contrasting outcomes: Contrasting outcomes: Ending overt violence VS. advocating a Ending overt violence VS. advocating a

more complete positive peace.more complete positive peace.☑ Program Level vs. Peace Writ Large: Program Level vs. Peace Writ Large:

more difficult to analyze long term more difficult to analyze long term effects effects

ChallengesChallenges in Peace in Peace Evaluation cont…Evaluation cont…

☑ Complex social impacts to peace efforts: Complex social impacts to peace efforts: • agency may claim responsibility for agency may claim responsibility for

outcomes, causing unhelpful distortion of outcomes, causing unhelpful distortion of reality.reality.

☑ Credibility of reported impacts:Credibility of reported impacts:• Impacts not easily categorized, ie. changed Impacts not easily categorized, ie. changed

attitudes, values, relationships, etc.attitudes, values, relationships, etc.☑ Significance of the changes for Peace Significance of the changes for Peace

Writ Large: Writ Large: • Can the outcome of your program be Can the outcome of your program be

contributed to greater peace?contributed to greater peace?

Conclusion Conclusion

““All of the good peace work being done All of the good peace work being done should be adding up to more than it is. The should be adding up to more than it is. The potential of these multiple efforts is not fully potential of these multiple efforts is not fully realized. Practitioners know that, so long as realized. Practitioners know that, so long as people continue to suffer the consequences people continue to suffer the consequences of unresolved conflicts, there is urgency for of unresolved conflicts, there is urgency for everyone to do better…So, in spite of the everyone to do better…So, in spite of the real limitations and constraints, the question real limitations and constraints, the question of effectiveness is high on the agenda of of effectiveness is high on the agenda of peace practitioners.” – Mary Anderson and peace practitioners.” – Mary Anderson and Lara OlsenLara Olsen