evaluating projects through a focus on creating jobs
DESCRIPTION
Glen E. Weisbrod, President, Economic Development Research Group delivered this presentation at the 2013 NSW State Transport Infrastructure Summit. The State Transport Infrastructure Series of events represent the leading forums in Australia to assess the future plans for transport infrastructure development and financing across Australia. For more information, please visit www.statetransportevents.com.auTRANSCRIPT
Evaluating Transport Projects
through a Focus on Creating Jobs
US Experience & Applicability Elsewhere
Glen Weisbrod
Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
Boston, Massachusetts, USA www.edrgroup.com
NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit
Sydney, 7-8 August, 2012
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Is it Good for Infrastructure to Decay ?
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Agenda
1. Evaluation: Considerations and Issues
2. Behaviour: The Transport-Economy Connection
3. Motivations: Case Examples Motivating Transport Plans
4. Decisions: Using Economic Impact Measurements
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Broader Evaluation Considerations
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Environment
Economic
Social
Movement of
People & Freight
Emerging Economic Impact Issues
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Wider economic benefits
relate to jobs, business
productivity and economic
competitiveness
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Economy-Transport Connection
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There are three inputs to business operations and hence job/ income
generation. Transport affects the cost & characteristics of all three.
Impact Process: Measurement
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Traditional Traveler Benefit
• Travel time
• Travel cost
• Safety
Expanded User Benefit
• Reliability
• Logistics
• Cross-modal
Wider Transport Benefits
• Accessibility
• Mobility
• Connectivity
Wider Economic Benefits
• Productivity from market access
• Supply chain efficiency
Local Effects
• Economic Competitiveness
• Business Location
User Benefits Transport System Economic Effects
Graphic © Economic Development Research Group, 2012
• Business Scheduling
– reduced PM, more early AM delivery
– earlier worker shifts, more overtime
– shrinking window of time, more concentration
– cost of “rescue drivers”, “relief drivers”
• Freight and Service Delivery
– reliability, frequency, area served
– service to distant markets
Business Operation: Congestion Effects
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• Business Operations
– Inventory stocking & control
– Labour Requirements
• Worker Travel
– commuting - labor time cost
– worker schedule reliability (uncertainty)
• Business Location Issues
– dispersion of locations (regionally & overseas)
Business Operation: Congestion Effects (2)
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Examples of Economic
Motivations for
Transportation Plans
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Border Facilities
Vancouver: Market Access to Gateways
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To Trans Can Hwy
To US Border
Connecting Key Nodes – Strategic Plan
Access: Labour & Delivery Market Areas
Transport conditions can expanding or contracting access to
markets, effective market scale and agglomeration economies :
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Same Day Delivery Market
– Portland , OR (3 hr. trip) Labour Market - Chicago
(40 min commute area)
Denver: Supporting High Tech Clusters
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Reduction in
Labor Market
Area if Transit is
not Increased
Toronto: Regional Long-Range Plan Toronto Metrolinx / Durham Region Transit
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Inter-City Access: Shrinking Time/Space Linking Financial, R&D, Manufacturing Centres
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The US Midwest: Travel Time from Chicago via Rail
Amtrak Current Schedule With 240 km/hr avg (150 mph avg)
Inter-City Access: Shrinking Time/Space Australia
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Hours of Travel Current Road With HSR
Sydney – Brisbane 10 3
Sydney – Canberra 3 1
Sydney – Melbourne 5 3
Measuring &
Communicating Economic
Impacts
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Why Measure Economic Impact?
1. Improve public understanding – Flow of money in the economy (Where does it go?) – Breadth of impact (among businesses & households)
2. Justify public financial support – Economic Stimulus Effect (Jobs) – Economic Competitiveness Effect (Productivity)
3. Show consistency with public policy – Congestion growth – Land development – ‘Equity
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Driving Factors that Affect Productivity
• Household cost savings • Business delivery savings from reduced congestion • Worker productivity due to more reliable arrivals • Market access enlarged: o Labor market for business, Job options for workers
• Business cluster or agglomeration economies: o clustering of complementary activities,
enabled by public transport & terminal facilities
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TRESIS - TREDIS Tools: Use for NSW Transport-Household & Business /Economic Relationships
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TRESIS (Transport & Environment
Impact Simulator) Effects on Home & Work Locations, Vehicle Ownership & Use, Trip Behavior
TREDIS (Transportation Economic
Development Impact System) Effects on: Supply Chains, Labour & Business Markets, Worker Productivity, Competitiveness
Transport Investment & Policy Changes
Environment
Jobs, Income,
Output Generated
Time, Expense Access,
Reliability
ITLS, Univ. of Sydney and Economic Development Research Group
% of Projects by Stated Motivation
* Excluding Passenger and Freight Intermodal
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Example of Benefit from Commuter Rail Line North Extension of Boston-Manchester
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Vehicle Operating Costs
32%
Business Productivity
7%
Time Savings - Commute
27%
Time Savings - Personal
21%
Safety 10%
Environment 3%
Decisions:
Using Economic Impact
Measurements
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Economic Factors in Multi-Criteria Analysis
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CBA MCA Rating Appraisal
Rating Criteria USDOT OH WI MO KS DfT Scot
Traveller Benefit and Environment
Efficiency: Travel time, cost, level of service X X X X X X X
Safety (accident rate) X X X - X X X
Pollution emissions/air quality/greenhouse gas X X X X - X X
Transportation Drivers of Business Productivity
Intermodal facilities, access & interchange (x) X (a) X (a) X X
Reduce localized congestion bottlenecks (x) X X X X (b) (b)
Connectivity to key corridors or global gateways (x) - X X (a) - -
Labour market access (x) - (a) - (a) (a) (a)
Reliability of travel times (x) - (a) - (a) X (b)
Truck freight route, supply chain impact (x) X (a) X X - -
Localized Outcomes
Location: regeneration of distressed area - X - X - X X
Land use: supports cluster or in-fill development - X - X X X X
Econ Policy: support target industry growth - - - X X - -
Local public support - - X - X - -
Leveraging private investment - X - - - - -
Macroeconomic Outcomes
Productivity X - - - - X X
Jobs(support job growth/reduce unemployment) - X X - - - -
Gross Regional Product or Value Added - - - - X - -
Investment Priorities
Operators
Users External Parties Govt. /
Financiers
Public (Economy)
Matching Impact Measures to Audiences
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3 Ways to Wreck Access (Passively)
1. Let Infrastructure / Service Get Clogged by congestion
2. Let Infrastructure / Service Degrade condition & performance
3. Let Infrastructure / Service Become Less Useful to meet changing needs (fail to upgrade technology)
To People (& Businesses) this effectively means… Less Capacity for Access
Less Speed of Access
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Maintaining Performance Standards
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Actual Photo of UFO Landing Zone on the A27 Highway in the Netherlands
Technology: Looking to the Future
Reports on the Economic Impact of
Transport Investment
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www.edrgroup.com/library/transportation