evaluating the afdb “high 5’s” for transforming africa...

Evaluating the AfDB “High 5’s” for Transforming Africa AfDB Development Evaluation Week 2016 Essay Contest

Amali Abraham Amali

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EVALUATING THE AfDB “HIGH 5’S” FOR TRANSFORMING AFRICA ÉVALUER LA AfDB “HIGH 5’S” POUR TRANSFORMER L’AFRIQUE

Amali Abraham Amali*

ABSTRACT

Our continent is undergoing major physical, social, and economic transitions from

periods when populations roughly matched available resources to a larger population,

from yearning to acquire wealth to satisfy greed, wants and luxuries to struggling to irk

a living to meet needs and necessities. Global conditions of population growth, rising

living standards and rapid increase in urbanisation are increasing the demand for new

thinking on sustainable utilisation of the fixed quantum of resources. The transitions

are happening so fast that the training and mindset of senior planners and managers

have since been overtaken by these equilibrium shifts and well-tried solutions. In order

to improve the standard of living for the people of Africa with geometric progression in

demography, the African Development Bank (AfDB) in 2015 uncovered the "High 5's"

initiatives; a 10-year strategic plan which will fund action research projects for

implementation. To solve the conflict of "reality and reliability" and the "time and

resources" limitation, this essay proposes evaluation methods for each of these

initiative. The proposed methodologies are summed up into two steps on the

evaluation: first is to realise "reality and reliability" (appraisal) by selecting investigator

triangulation according to evaluation content, and secondly to reduce the expending

of "time and resources" (audit) by logistic processing of the evaluation steps to ensure

target objectives are achieved.

1. INTRODUCTION

On September 1, 2015, the African Development Bank (AfDB) President, Dr.

Akinwumi A. Adesina, in his inaugural speech unveiled “The High 5’s” initiative

to accelerate Africa’s development over the next 10 years for sustainable

transformation of the continent. Under this initiative, the High-5 priority areas

of focus are to – light up and power Africa, feed Africa, integrate Africa,

industrialise Africa, and improve the quality of life for the people of Africa, aimed

at expanding opportunities and unlocking potentials – potentials for countries,

women, youth, private sector, and the continent at large.

As a major requirement for every new initiative, there is need for scheduled

appraisal and audit for monitoring, assessing its functionality, and making

recommendations for improvement at each level.

* JOFRAL Nigeria Ltd; R20, University of Maiduguri; E-mail:[email protected]; +2347037221293

mailto:[email protected]


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Objectives of the Evaluation

This is an attempt to determine if the overall status and progress of the

initiatives is acceptable as compared to initial plans and if the objectives are

being achieved. An interim assessment of these initiatives at major milestones

during implementation will steer these initiatives in the right direction.

Implementation of these initiatives will be through projects; projects that are

Systematic, Measureable, Achievable, Reliable, Time-bound (SMART).

The evaluation aim is to develop and test locally the - processes to bring about

all-round improvement in project planning and execution which would be

achieved through objectives that will:

a. verify if the progress of project implementation is as planned and take

corrective measures if the project progress is behind schedule as well

as bring about overall improvement in project performance;

b. ensure the quality standards of the project are reached without any

compromise;

c. enlighten the clients about the progress of the project and keep them

updated about the project status;

d. watch whether the project objectives are met and suggest corrective

measures if not met;

e. give confidence to the project team members and reassure the

organization’s (AfDB) commitment to the project.

The evaluation efforts aim to answer questions along clear hypothesised causal

links as a way to better understand overall socioeconomic development

(Nagarajan, 2012). These efforts provide an opportunity to devise innovative

ways to promote adoption among the poor despite the cost of access. A

comprehensive evaluation will therefore have to comprise of aspects that are

quantitative/objective (commercial, economic, financial, risk and social cost

benefit evaluation) and aspects that are qualitative/subjective (management

evaluation) as applicable for all the projects. This also includes rationality,

efficiency, equity, flexibility, impact and effectiveness of programmes,

institutional constraints and community acceptance of programmes.

Being stated as a 10-year initiative, it would require an initial evaluation

(Appraising) and a post evaluation (Auditing) for (i) locating areas that have

contributed to the variances in the project cost and time; (ii) classifying these

variances; (iii) analysing steps that could have been taken to avoid them;

(iv) analysing in depth, factors that have caused these unavoidable variances;

(v) examining the possibilities of their removal in future by adopting suitable

methodologies. It will also be necessary to review whether the project’s goals

and objectives are achieved and if the project’s products are of acceptable

quality and output volume commensurate with the market share as planned.


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2. LIGHT UP AND POWER AFRICA

2.1 Preamble

Access to infrastructure affects production, income and economic growth. It

also affects the supply and demand of infrastructure. By neglecting this

simultaneity, possibilities of biasing estimated impacts exist.

2.2 Evaluating Productivity and Performance

2.2.1 Appraising

i. Appropriate technologies for power generation should be assessed

based on their sustainability for the local economic, social and cultural

conditions. Availability of local raw materials, ease of implementation

and maintenance by locally available manpower, evaluation of existing

generation capacity and augmenting with more recent technologies

and protection of ecological balance are key factors to be considered.

ii. Commercial successfulness of the product(s) or service(s) offered by

the project in terms of its demand, supply position, distribution, pricing

and government policies. Measurement of direct and indirect benefits,

people impacted and how the distribution of benefits change as

coverage expands in terms of: (a) rate of establishment of industries

that rely on power and (b) reduction of price of commodities as against

alternative sources of production are indicators of success or failure.

iii. Effectiveness of approaches such as subsidies and financing

households with long-term loans, getting information regarding ideas

and intentions of consumers through collecting views and opinions of

experts in the field or by conducting interviews.

2.2.2 Auditing

iv. A record of impacts of coverage and access of power to SMEs, rate of

adoption of new alternatives, income benefits from access to power

through job creation, time saving for other tasks, domestic benefits

(lightning, TV/Radio), quality of health through reduced mortality and

improved indoor air quality from changes in lightning source, and

quality of educational services through qualitative learning for children

living in electrified households. It also includes higher revenues for

existing businesses, creation of new ones, access to information

technologies earlier precluded by lack of electricity, sub-community

clusters of high/low density of electrified town, increase in appliance

ownerships in terms of higher amount of usage and lower operating

price.


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v. Asking questions that attempt to assess the rationale for the Bank’s

(AfDB) support for power generation and electrification projects, the

growth in coverage in countries receiving support and to what extent

the bank has contributed to these, an aggregate of the private benefits

and the public good benefits when compared with willingness to pay

for it and the private and social rates of return from these investments.

vi. An assessment of rate of increase in household uses of electricity

(cooking, cleaning), community uses of electricity (hospitals to

preserve drugs, street lightning) and productive uses of electricity

(such as extended working hours, agricultural sector for irrigation, food

processing plants). As power and industrilisation are intricately linked,

reliability and stability of the power being generated over time to

sustain the uprising industries and encourage new ones. As the

statuesque, publicity of these benefits comes from testimony of

present users, thereby justifying other’s involvement.

3. FEED AFRICA

3.1 Preamble

Agriculture is a location specific occupation which remains an integral part

of the African economy and the daily lives of the majority of Africans,

accounting for just over 60% of jobs across the continent. Food Insecurity on

the other hand is simply the inability to secure food for oneself and their

family without sacrificing the ability to make a house payment, buy medicine,

or any other purchase that is crucial to survival (Feed Africa, 2016)


3.2.1 Appraising

i. A good feeding programme will ensure production of food items with

improved availability and quality upon arrival at their final destination.

Therefore, competition will shift from quantity production to quality of

production as consumers develop choice of preference. With grains

making up the largest stock of food and food product, an assessment

of average output of agricultural products including tubers when

measured against initial production before introducing the

programme/project, will indicate either success or failure of any

feeding programme.

ii. When assessed on feeding, the emergence of industries especially

those using food products as raw materials should be sustainable.


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Competition between industries and direct consumers for limited

agricultural products will translate into high prices from high demand

as against supply. A measure of the extent of dispersal of food

production and food processing industries will be a good sign for

success. As noticed with centralisation, a particular region producing

a food item can easily upset the demand and supply chain, creating

scarcity during outbreak of infection, natural disaster or conflict

iii. Introduction and uptake of new agricultural techniques by farmers

should be evaluated partly on farmers’ preferences and expected

gains in productivity and profitability as compared to their long standing

and functional ancestral techniques. Farmers’ preference can be

ascertained using analytical procedures such as conjoint analysis and

willingness to pay. Partial productivity measures such as land and

labour productivity, can be estimated to measure gains and incentives

from adopting new agricultural practices. However, total factor

productivity (TFP) which measures changes in agricultural output

relative to changes in an aggregated index of multiple inputs is a

comprehensive method for measuring productivity.

3.2.2 Auditing

iv. An assessment of the quality of life of newly born children under this

initiative and the aged will be a factor worth considering. With an

efficient feeding programme, the health of newly born will improve and

the aged will receive more attention from the public with

establishments such as nursing homes for adults.

v. As expected, for an effective feeding programme, there should be a

decrease in the mortality rate across all age groups as their livelihood

improves. Hence reduction in food and water related epidemics,

income diversification from health, etc. Also, population is expected to

be evenly distributed across age groups from the conventional middle

heavy with light top and bottom.

vi. With an effective feeding programme comes household dietary

diversity, availability, accessibility and affordability of necessary and

healthy food items at the local market for the average class. With this

in place, an assessment of a stable market pricing policy that ensures

the products’ continued availability and affordability over time is a good

indicator.


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4. INTEGRATE AFRICA

4.1 Preamble,

Integration policies change continuously with great effects on people’s lives.

Impact evaluations are the assessment by which we observe how a policy

affects integration outcomes, whether these effects are intended or

unintended (Özge, 2015). While the earlier 3 initiatives above may be seen

as objective focusing on a better and comfortable life for the African people,

the integration initiative is rather subjective and directed towards the mindset

and behaviour of Africans, her approach to issues and where s/he stands on

certain issues of regional/state/national or continental interest. It is not

heavily based on policies of economics and social wellbeing but one that

seeks to bring minds to a reasoning table, closely knitted without losing sight

of who we are. It involves effectively handling superiority and inferiority

complexes, bridging the gap between the rural poor and the urban rich,

across races, ethnic groups, tribes, religions and across nations. A simplistic

view of this complex problem will involve focusing on certain projects which

address this issue and testing them in line with their integration tendencies,

conceived or unconceived.


4.2.1 Appraising and Auditing

i. The structuralists view of regional integration from a sociological

perspective, uses factors that decide the success (or failure) of

regional integration–cooperation processes among developing

countries can be employed. These factors are:

(A) Economic factors: (i) the region’s global development level and

the development differences among member countries; (ii) the

existing level of economic interdependence between member

countries, (iii) the complementarity of resources and production

factors; (iv) the chosen integration model and the applicability of

integrating policies.

(B) Political and institutional factors: (i) the level of political

willingness and institutional stability, (ii) the degree of political

homogeneity within the group; notably, the sociopolitical system in

force in member countries, (iii) the efficacy of national and common

institutions and their capacity to adapt to ongoing changes, and (iv)

member countries’ configuration of foreign relations. Considering

these factors can be a tool for evaluating African integration policies.


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4.2.2 AfDB Regional Integration Index

ii. The AfDB also in her recent African Regional Integration Index Report

presented five dimensions and sixteen indicators for evaluating

integration of the African continent. These are:

(A) Composite indicator Trade integration using indicators as Level

of customs duties on imports, share of intra-regional goods exports (%

GDP), share of intra-regional goods imports (% GDP), and share of

total intra-regional goods trade (% total intra-Regional Economic

Community (REC) trade),

(B) Composite index Regional infrastructure using indicators as;

infrastructure development index (transport; electricity; ICT, water and

sanitation), proportion of intra-regional flights, total regional electricity

trade (net) per capita (absolute value) and average cost of roaming,

(C) Composite productive integration index with indicators such as

share of intra-regional intermediate goods exports (% total intra-

regional goods exports), share of intra-regional intermediate goods

imports (% total intra-regional goods imports) and merchandise trade

complementarity index,

(D) Composite index of free movement of people in terms of

ratification by the country of REC protocol on free movement of people,

proportion of REC member countries whose nationals do not require a

visa for entry and proportion of REC member countries whose

nationals may obtain a visa on arrival and

(E) Composite index of financial integration and convergence of

macroeconomic policies using indicators as regional convertibility of

national currencies and inflation rate differential (based on

Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HCPI).

5. INDUSTRIALISE AFRICA

5.1 Preamble

Industrial giants like Andrew Carnegie encourage wealth to be privately

earned and then dispersed into the society through public works as an

alternative to spreading money into everyone’s pockets where it’s unlikely to

be spent towards greater good or spent unwisely (Carnegie, 1889). An

industrial revolution especially in the African context of high employable but

unemployed youths has to be one that prioritises employment creation rather

than one that replaces human labour with machines. A measure of this will

help check rapid industrialisation against converse effect on employment.


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5.2.1 Appraising

i. It is said that necessity is the mother of invention. Over the years, the

African continent has lagged due to ease of acquiring available but

limited resources. This has not been the case in many parts of the

world that have made the best of their challenges. A good example is

agricultural development in Europe and the Middle-East as against

Africa with her vast arable land. Hence an important evaluation

strategy will be to streamline industrialisation against the necessities

of the society and an assessment of how much it solves their

challenges by translating them into solutions.

ii. Everybody loves to be part of a public success and a good yardstick

for evaluating these projects especially those focusing on

industrialisation will be the rate of adoption and/involvement by the

public in form of Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) to achieving a

common goal.

iii. Re-evaluating the universities and polytechnics against their initial

mandates as centres for research and design and for fabrication

respectively, will be a key tool in the move for industrialisation. An

assessment of the output of these tertiary institutions; the hub of

industries, rate of development of their prototype, entrepreneurship

abilities and how they seek to address the technological gaps existing

in the society will be an indicator to this initiative.

5.2.2 Auditing

iv. Since projects are appraised making use of certain unavoidable

assumptions, the appraisal is very much prone to the risk of yielding

results that may deviate from reality. A risk and uncertainty analysis in

terms of the Strengths, Opportunities, Weaknesses and Threats

(SWOT) of every project to ascertain that the assumptions earlier

made are either realistic or adjusted to fit in with the project trends.

v. While other forms of evaluation may be quantitative and objective in

nature, there is need for a managerial evaluation or appraisal, purely

qualitative and subjective in nature which takes into account for both

new and existing industries the; relations prevailing in that enterprise,

morale of the employees, prevailing pre-subordinate relationship,

labour turnover, labour unrest, productivity of employees and some

factors that will reflect the managerial capabilities.


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vi. Public projects for which socioeconomic considerations play a

significant part rather than mere commercial profitability, can be

evaluated based on their net socioeconomic benefits. For such

projects, while the nation bears the indirect cost, the people of the

nation are expected to enjoy the indirect benefits. Hence the indirect

costs/benefits of the projects could be considered in terms of;

contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the economy,

contribution of the project to improve the benefits to the poorer

sections of the society and to reduce the regional imbalances in

growth, development and its justification for use of scarce resources

of the economy by the project.

6. IMPROVE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR THE PEOPLE OF AFRICA

6.1 Preamble

As stated by the AfDB president in his inaugural speech, “…no longer will

we judge ourselves simply based on the size of our lending portfolio but on

the strength of Africa’s growth and development and the quality of

improvements in the lives of the African people.” This statement purports

that the bank satisfise something that is emulable as all the other four

initiatives are summed up into this.


6.2.1 Appraising

i. Improved quality of life comes with improved standard of living which

would reflect on performance and quality of teachers in and across

institutions in terms of work hours. It will be reflected as better output

in students with willingness to learn under improved facilities. This is a

strong indicator for this initiative.

ii. The health outcome (life expectancy) is also an outcome indicator

whether physical or mental health. The Body Mass Index (BMI),

vitality, analytical indicators such as smoking rate and excessive

drinking, suicide rate, are all variables that can be used in evaluating

quality of life. Access and affordability of female child education and

transition up to tertiary education will reflect an improved lifestyle.

iii. A measure of one or more variables that includes (i) coping with

income (income, satisfaction with income, and inequality) and one that

measures (ii) the degree to which people are living well in terms of

financial and material assets (including indebtedness – reflecting


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potential present worries about future financial problems). The quality

of housing is also an important asset variable when considering

overcrowding rate.

6.2.2 Auditing

iv. Physical security and safety (at home and at work) and a measure of

safety capacity or ill-being produced by the political system which

relies on key variables of trust such as legal system, the police and the

government in the system rather than the satisfaction of the system.

Trust is a preferable variable as it is a more defined assessment than

satisfaction and arguably the most important assessment to be made

regarding these three key institutions.

v. Economic security linked to education/skills and jobs is a link that can

be established with the educational satisfaction, education levels of

youngsters, lifelong learning at all ages including skills and job security

are good measures for safety-security analysis. The measure of one’s

physical environment in terms of air pollution, sufficient access to

recreational spaces, noise pollution and general questions reflecting

current worries about the future of the natural environment.

vi. An approach that takes into consideration the community’s quality of

life which draws upon recent developments in health promotion,

tackling epidemics, and applying the concepts within a community-

based promotion framework. It should be one that operates within the

naturalistic or qualitative inquiry paradigm striving to be community-

based through use of participatory and collaborative methods giving

them a sense of ownership and partnership.

7. CONCLUSION

7.1 Way Forward

Policies need to leave the archives and filing cabinets to implementation

through projects that affect the lives of Africans directly or indirectly. Projects

that will increase productivity, encourage inter African trade and visits and turn

the continent into an independent business hub reducing the continents rate of

dependence on foreign aid and utilities. With better educational systems and

health care facilities in place, drift of African scholars outside the continent in

search of educational and medical facilities for their well-being will reduce and

better agricultural facilities will ensure sustainable food for the African people.


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Africa is a green continent for research and development. There exist vast

under-researched fields and tonnes of questions waiting to be answered with

just adequate manpower. For this transformation to take place, there is need

to distinguish between education for employment/job security or advancement

and education aimed at problem solving. Research outcomes from research

institutions and universities should not just be for promotional issues and end

up in the pages of journals and dailies. It needs to go beyond writing to

implementation, beyond expensive fabrication of wasting innovative prototypes

to one of patenting and development for the African people.

7.2 Expected Outcomes/Outputs

The impact of this evaluation will be in adoption of socially acceptable systems

of each of the initiatives to improve sustainable development on the African

continent. The outcome will be that efficient, equitable and transparent

processes for formal and informal planning and implementation are established

As contained in the AfDB president’s inaugural speech, these initiatives are

aimed at improving the quality of life for the African people. This will be the

focus of every project and expectation of these initiatives to:

a. facilitate rapid growth in rural communities and hence reduce rural-

urban migration in search of greener pastures.

b. reduce the rate of conflicts among communities and ethno-religious

disputes over scarce and limited resources.

c. encourage a diversified and sustainable income with increased

technological advancement across the continent.

d. increase the rate of trade and travel within African countries and

conversely reduce the rate of transit to other continents.

e. better governance for the African people and improved security for lives

and properties.

7.3 Summary

Projects haven’t been able to pay for themselves the capital cost of

development by what is produced at primary level of operation, whereas

secondary and tertiary outpouring of such projects justifies continuality for a

prosperous, sustainable and inclusive growth with most of them paying off as

source of livelihood created for the people. Focusing on transformation, scaling

up agriculture as a business through value addition, led by the private sector

and enabled by the public sector, and using innovative financing mechanisms,

the strategy will end hunger and rural poverty in Africa in the next decade.

Today the world order raises a kind of global pessimism, but in Africa there is

growing optimism and I am convinced that the demographic dividends of our

youth when fully tapped will help concretize this most envied optimism.


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REFERENCES

Africa Regional Integration Index Report 2016

Akinwumi A. A. (2015): African Development Bank Group President’s inaugural speech, Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, September 1, 2015

Carnegie A. (1889): Wealth, North American Review Vol. 148, issue 391 pp 653-665 in Friedman, T. L. (1999): The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Feed Africa (2016): Strategy for Agricultural Transformation in Africa 2016-2025

Nagarajan K. (2012): Project management (6th Edition), New Age International Publishers, pp76-138

Özge B. (2015): Evaluating Impact: Lessons Learned from Robust Evaluations of Labour Market Integration Policies, Migrant Integration Policy Index, August 2015.

Schmitter, P. C. (1970): “A Revised Theory of Regional Integration,” International Organization, 24(4), 836–868.

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