evaluating the met office global forecast model using gerb data richard allan, tony slingo...
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Evaluating the Met Office global forecast model using GERB data
Richard Allan, Tony Slingo
Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading
Sean Milton, Malcolm Brooks
Met Office, Exeter
Objectives
• Improve experience with satellite datasets including GERB
• Timely Model Evaluation• Understanding of physical processes
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Mean model bias: 2006
All-sky Clear-sky
All-sky Clear-sky
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Convective cloud
Surface albedo
Mineral dust aerosol
Marine stratocumulus
Cirrus outflow
All-sky Clear-sky
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Mineral dust aerosol
Dust impact on longwave radiation
• Large perturbation to Met Office model OLR during summer over west Sahara
• Correlates with high mineral dust aerosol optical depth
Model minus GERB OLR: July 2006, 12-18 UTC
18 UTC model-GERB OLR over West Sahara
GERBIL – aircraft campaign (Jim Haywood)
GERB Intercomparison of Longwave Radiation: June 2007 http://www.faam.ac.uk/public/campaigns/index.html#gerbil
Consistent with calculations of dust longwave radiative effect
Clear-sky OLR bias (Wm-2) in 2003
Calculations:
Direct radiative effect
Direct plus shortwave feedback effect
Haywood et al. (2005) JGR 110, D05105
- Major dust source for Amazon
- Large component from March 2004 dust storms
March 2004: an interesting month
Loeb et al. (2007) J. Climate, 20, p.582
March 2006 was interesting too…
All-sky Clear-sky
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Marine stratocumulus
Convective cloud
Cirrus outflow Radiative biases in the Met Office global model
Marine Stratocumulus
• Curious banding structure– Transition across
model levels• Cloud reflectivity
bias– Model low-altitude
stratiform clouds are too reflective
Changes in albedo bias (ocean)
• Model upgrade (March 2006) reduced but did not remove albedo bias– Compensating errors: ITCZ/stratocumulus
Stratocumulus composites
Cloud liquid water path
Bias: model minus GERB; SSM/I; SEVIRI
Albedo Liquid Water Path Cloud
Reduction in model bias from June to July 2006 - relates to cloud liquid water
LWPWentz: overestimate for low cloud fraction?
TMIWentz/MODIS LWPOvercast boundary layer clouds: good agreement
Horváth and Davies (2007) JGR 112, D01202
Convective cloud
5th June 2006
Model evaluation: near-real time
• Change in model minus GERB flux differences
• Relate to change in model physics implementation
13th March | 14th March
Model SW albedo
2005 2006
Convective Decay Time-scale
• Unrealistically low levels of convective cloud
• On-off; common problem in models
• Simple fix…
• Increased convective cloud cover
• But is the physics any better?
• Future work: Comparisons with CloudSat
Improved shortwave reflectivity
Gulf of Guinea Model CloudSat
19th July 2006
5th July 2006
Conclusions
• Top down-bottom up approach– Good for feedback to modellers
• Mineral dust aerosol– Shortwave absorption; longwave radiative effect– Large effect of single events
• Marine stratocumulus– Reflectivity and seasonal variability: issues
• Deep convection– Intermittent in models; issues with detrainment