evaluationrwanda_lisbon

8/7/2019 EvaluationRwanda_Lisbon

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NONIE BUDGET SUPPORTNONIE BUDGET SUPPORTEVALUATION WOKRSHOPEVALUATION WOKRSHOP

Rwandas Experience with EvaluatingRwandas Experience with Evaluating

Budget SupportBudget SupportPortugal, October 1, 2008Portugal, October 1, 2008


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Overview of the presentationOverview of the presentation

BackgroundBackground

Objective of the evaluationObjective of the evaluation

Key findingsKey findings

Major gaps in relation to impact evaluationMajor gaps in relation to impact evaluation

Conclusion: Impact evaluation will be feasible if?Conclusion: Impact evaluation will be feasible if?


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1. Background1. Background

June 2002, first PRSP approvedJune 2002, first PRSP approved

2003 partnership agreement signed (5 donors)2003 partnership agreement signed (5 donors)

20052005 2006, first and only joint budget support2006, first and only joint budget supportevaluation. Annual joint budget support reviewsevaluation. Annual joint budget support reviews

institutionalizedinstitutionalized

CaveatCaveat Evaluation findings have beenEvaluation findings have beenovertaken by recent reform effortsovertaken by recent reform efforts focused onfocused onGBS and not other aid modalitiesGBS and not other aid modalities


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2. Purpose of the evaluation2. Purpose of the evaluation

Evaluate to what extent, under whatEvaluate to what extent, under whatcircumstances is GBS relevant, efficient andcircumstances is GBS relevant, efficient andeffective for achieving sustainableeffective for achieving sustainable impact onimpact on

poverty reduction and growthpoverty reduction and growth

Forward looking evaluation (lessons learned,Forward looking evaluation (lessons learned,

joint donor accountability at country leveljoint donor accountability at country level


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3. Key findings3. Key findings

Effect of General budget support:Effect of General budget support: RelevanceRelevance Harmonization and alignmentHarmonization and alignment

Performance of public expenditurePerformance of public expenditure Planning and budgeting systemsPlanning and budgeting systems Policies and processesPolicies and processes Macroeconomic performanceMacroeconomic performance

Public service deliveryPublic service delivery Poverty reductionPoverty reduction Sustainability of Budget supportSustainability of Budget support


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i. Key findings: Relevancei. Key findings: Relevance

RelevantRelevant supporting stronger governmentsupporting stronger governmentleadership/ownershipleadership/ownership

Links to decentralization strengthenedLinks to decentralization strengthened

Balance between social and growth sectors ofBalance between social and growth sectors of

the PRSP at issuethe PRSP at issue

Conditionality not consistent with the paradigmConditionality not consistent with the paradigmof partnershipof partnership no mutual accountabilityno mutual accountability


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iiii..Harmonization and AlignmentHarmonization and Alignment

Stronger alignment to PRSP and Vision 2020Stronger alignment to PRSP and Vision 2020

Policy and institutional framework for harmonizationPolicy and institutional framework for harmonization

strengthenedstrengthened

Improved aid coordinationImproved aid coordination

Predictability weaker (greatly improved recently)Predictability weaker (greatly improved recently)

Potential to improve complementality between differentPotential to improve complementality between differentaid modalitiesaid modalities


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iii. Performance of public expenditureiii. Performance of public expenditure

Significant additionality of aid due to ease ofSignificant additionality of aid due to ease ofdisbursementdisbursement

Higher ratio of disbursement to commitmentHigher ratio of disbursement to commitment

Stronger targeting of investment in direct serviceStronger targeting of investment in direct service

delivery (education, health, agric.)delivery (education, health, agric.)

Increased share of priority spendingIncreased share of priority spending


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iv. Planning and budgetingiv. Planning and budgeting

PFM systems rebuiltPFM systems rebuilt

PFM reforms have stronger linkage to budgetPFM reforms have stronger linkage to budgetsupportsupport

Capacity development needs for PFM continueCapacity development needs for PFM continue


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v. Policies and policy processesv. Policies and policy processes

ProPro--poor reform policies in placepoor reform policies in place

Government ownershipGovernment ownership

Policy process and dialogue more inclusivePolicy process and dialogue more inclusive

Limitations on public/private sector linkagesLimitations on public/private sector linkages


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vi. Macroeconomic performancevi. Macroeconomic performance

More focus on macroMore focus on macro--economic policy andeconomic policy andprocessesprocesses

Supported disciplined budget managementSupported disciplined budget management

Facilitates prudent fiscal managementFacilitates prudent fiscal management

Rwanda registered strong macroRwanda registered strong macro--economiceconomicperformanceperformance


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vii. Delivery of public servicesvii. Delivery of public services

Steady gains despite capacity challengesSteady gains despite capacity challenges

Increased access to public serviceIncreased access to public service

ProPro--poor spending in social sectors grewpoor spending in social sectors grew

Within year predictability and timelinessWithin year predictability and timeliness

challengedchallenged hampered service deliveryhampered service delivery

Need to strength monitoring and evaluationNeed to strength monitoring and evaluation

systemssystems


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viii. Poverty reductionviii. Poverty reduction

Baselines for service delivery not establishedBaselines for service delivery not established

Scarcity of data and statistics (greatly improvedScarcity of data and statistics (greatly improved

now)now)

Rebound effect after1994 effect makes it hardRebound effect after1994 effect makes it hardto demarcate the effect of public actionto demarcate the effect of public action

This has changed with more reliable data. AbilityThis has changed with more reliable data. Abilityto compare trends improvedto compare trends improved


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ix. Sustainability of GBSix. Sustainability of GBS

Rwandan context favorable for sustainabilityRwandan context favorable for sustainability

Budget support volume has increasedBudget support volume has increased

More donors have come on boardMore donors have come on board


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4. Major gaps in relation to impact4. Major gaps in relation to impactevaluationevaluation

Evaluation established effect on policy andEvaluation established effect on policy andprocess indicators, not impact on developmentprocess indicators, not impact on developmentoutcomesoutcomes

Rationale for Budget support is to maximizeRationale for Budget support is to maximizeimpact on development indicatorsimpact on development indicators

Impact evaluation should link budget support toImpact evaluation should link budget support todevelopment results/outcomesdevelopment results/outcomes

Approach not participatory, not inclusiveApproach not participatory, not inclusive


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Major gaps contdMajor gaps contd

Fungibility of money means tracking impact ofFungibility of money means tracking impact ofeach $$$ is difficulteach $$$ is difficult

Impact on private sector difficult to establishImpact on private sector difficult to establish

Tendency for preferred sectors (social) crowdsTendency for preferred sectors (social) crowdsout growth sectors minimizing potential impactout growth sectors minimizing potential impacton overall development resultson overall development results

Driven largely by policy and institutional reforms,Driven largely by policy and institutional reforms,less attention to implementation capacity gapless attention to implementation capacity gap


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5. Impact evaluation will be feasible5. Impact evaluation will be feasiblewith:with:

Country owned strategy, government leadershipCountry owned strategy, government leadership

Countries have a strong results framework, goodCountries have a strong results framework, goodstatistics and sound monitoring and evaluation systemstatistics and sound monitoring and evaluation system

ResultsResults--based budgeting reforms may be required,based budgeting reforms may be required,linking spending to results/outcomelinking spending to results/outcome

Incentive frameworkIncentive framework reward good performancereward good performance

Links to mutual accountability is importantLinks to mutual accountability is important

Harmonized indicator system for comparabilityHarmonized indicator system for comparability Predictable, longterm commitment, timely disbursementPredictable, longterm commitment, timely disbursement

impact takes time to happenimpact takes time to happen


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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

evaluationrwanda_lisbon

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