Evangelicals, Born Agains, and Fundamentalist Christians

in Election 2004May 26, 2004

Source: www.greenbergresearch.com

www.zogby.com

Two Polls

Greenberg Research Survey of all evangelicals in America Conducted April 5th, 2004

Zogby International Survey of evangelicals in 16 battleground

states Conducted between May 18th and May 23rd,

2004

Greenberg Research – Evangelical Demographics

Evenly spread throughout the country 31% live in the Deep South 19% live in the Central Northeast 14% live on the Pacific coast Evangelicals disproportionately live in rural

areas (25%) or small towns (31%)

Greenberg Research – Demographics (cont.)

55% of Evangelicals believe it is very important we show support for Israel in contrast with only 40% of Americans in general.

82% of Evangelicals are registered voters and 65% of those reported that they voted in both 2000 and 2002.

15% of Evangelicals are Afro-American, 75% of whom are staunch Kerry supporters.

Greenberg Research –White Evangelicals

White evangelicals are mainly conservative and support Bush’s re-election bid.

Among those who vote, 74% support Bush as opposed to 23% that support Kerry.

More politically engaged than general population.

More likely to participate politically due to religiosity.

While 1 in 5 white evangelical voters are Democrat, they are less likely to vote than their Republican counterparts.

Greenberg Research – Evangelical Foreign Policy

Moved more by conservative ideology rather than faith-based altruism.

Priorities include homeland security, war on terror, and safety from foreign aggression.

Evangelicals are much more pro-Israeli (55% versus 40%) than Americans in general.

However, there is little difference from the general population with regard to Palestinian rights.

CNI / Zogby Poll Results -Evangelical Views on the Mideast

49% of Born Agains support making Israel accountable for her actions. 33% do not support making Israel accountable. (April 5, 2004)

40% of Born Agains agree that the state of Palestine should now be recognized. 30% disagree with the remainder unsure. (July 2003)

Zogby International

Poll of likely voters in the 16 “battleground states” Arkansas (6) Florida (27) Iowa (7) Michigan (17) Minnesota (10) Missouri (11)

Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (21) Tennessee (11) Washington (11) West Virginia (5) Wisconsin (10)

Zogby International –Florida

Florida30.3% Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again

27 Electoral Votes

63%

29%

1%

7%

Bush

Kerry

Other

NS

Bush won by 537 votes in 2000

29% Kerry 63% Bush 30% of likely voters

are “evangelical”

Zogby International – Pennsylvania

Gore won by 204,000 (4.2%) votes in 2000

20% Kerry 79% Bush 17% of likely voters

are “evangelical”

Pennsylvania16.67% Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again

21 Electoral Votes

79%

20%

0%

1%

Bush

Kerry

Other

NS

Zogby International –Ohio

Bush won 165,000 (3.5%) votes in 2000

16% Kerry 80% Bush 20% of likely voters

are “evangelical”.

Ohio20.45% Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again

20 Electoral Votes

80%

16%

1%

3%

Bush

Kerry

Other

NS

Zogby International –Michigan

Gore won by 217,000 (5.1%) votes in 2000

23% Kerry 70% Bush 20% of likely voters

are “evangelical”.

Michigan19.61% Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again

17 Electoral Votes

70%

23%

3%

4%

Bush

Kerry

Other

NS

Zogby International – All 16 Battleground States

All 16 Battleground States30.34% Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again

177 Electoral Votes

73%

22%

2%

3%

Bush

Kerry

Other

NS

Questions

Will the election depend on how many born again, fundamentalist, or evangelical voters turn out?

Does Bush’s re-election hinge on raising the number of such voters from 65% participation to 70% or more?

Conclusion

“Bad politicians are elected by good people who don’t vote.” – Billy Graham, Evangelist

Karl Rove fears Evangelicals not voting in 2004