evergreen: introduction to scenario-based planning
TRANSCRIPT
Outreach: As the Gold Standard in foresight, Evergreen members advise agencies as they build their programs
and strengthen a growing community.
Scalable: A 5 to 10 year outlook, thematically focused on emerging issues.
Evergreen: A long-term, over the horizon outlook with the broadest perspective on megatrends and drivers
shaping the world.
Do
Work
Think
2
Goals
History
1. Planning effort to help the Service think “over the horizon”; to engage in strategic risk management
2. Develop and nurture a Service that thinks and acts with strategic intent by being as inclusive as possible
1. Coast Guard has used this planning tool since 1998 2. The Evergreen process has evolved from discrete planning project
into a systematic four-year planning cycle 3. Evergreen has drawn upon well over 500 officers, senior enlisted
and civilians 4. It has sponsored inter-agency, Department, and stakeholder
workshops to generate and share insights
The Coast Guard’s strategic foresight initiative that provide defined and vetted strategic needs and instills strategic intent throughout the service by engaging various levels of internal and external stakeholders through scenario-based planning methods.
3
Where Do We Need To Be 5-10 Years From Now?
Strategic Insight and Future Mission Pull
Where Can We Be Next Year?
Incrementalism and Negotiation
Annual Planning Scenario-Based Planning
TIME
GO
AL
What should we do?Where weare now
TIME
GO
AL
And the next?…Where weare now
4
Avoiding the Trap of a “Most Likely Future”
Predictive Planning
Scenario-Based Planning Strategic Needs
5
U.S. Economy Nature of DisruptionsRole of U.S. Federal
GovernmentGlobal Mobility
Scenario NameStrong Weak Traditional Novel Substantial Limited Fluid HIndered
X X X X Green with Envy
X X X X Dragon vs. Tiger
X X X X Living on Borrowed Time
X X X X Homeward Bound
X X X X Quantum Leap
X X X X U.S. Renaissance
X X X X Anything Goes
X X X X Members Only U.S.A.
X X X X Bet on the Wrong Horse
X X X X Who’s the Boss?
X X X X Geriatric Depression
X X X X The Long Slow Slide into the Night
X X X X Muddling Down
X X X X The Earth She is Angry
X X X XDude Where’s My Sovereignty?
X X X X Treading Water
Evergreen III Scenarios
6
What are Scenarios?
They are not:
They are:
1. An academic exercise (Millennials) 2. Predictions 3. Strategies for some future year
1. Plausible future operating environments that, as a set, capture future opportunities and threats
2. A practical, disciplined tool to create robust plans 3. A means to develop strategies today for future
success
8
3. Stress Needs and Summarize
Key Insights
4. Distill Insights and Inform
Decision-making
Planning Using Multiple Scenarios
9
Rehearsethe
Future
1. Develop strategic needs
2. Prepare for unanticipated threats
3. Discover hidden opportunities
4. Avoid failures of imagination
5. Challenge conventional thinking
6. Build consensus and alignment
Scenario-Based Planning Benefits
10
The Four-Year Evergreen Cycle
Explain & Promote EG IV
EG IV Operationlization
FY16· Operational Model Scenario Workshop Development· Insight Workshops (2)· Outlook & Vision Review/ Refinement/ Development
Customized EG IV Products
EG IV Application
FY17· Core Team Alignment· Internal Stakeholder Workshop· Insight Workshops (2)· Final Analysis & Compilation of Results
EG IV Book & Project Report
Explain & Promote EG IV
Explain & Promote EG IV
Explain & Promote EG IV
Senior Executive Leadership Council Engagement & Support
Senior Executive Leadership Council Engagement & Support
EG IV Discovery
EG IV Drivers & Scenario
Identification
· Drivers Interviews· Scenario Research· Scenario Review
Workshops
EG III Reflection
EG IV Refinement
FY15
FY14 Lessons Learned Assessment
· Core Team Alignment· Ext Stakeholders Meetings· Lessons Learned Interviews
· Scenario Set Development· Drivers & Scenarios· Senior & Mid-Grade Scenario Review Workshops
EG IV Strategic Needs
11
How will CG incorporate
eco fuels into the fleet?
How does CG spend a robust
budget?
How will CG manage
infrastructure in high water? How will CG
maintain the nation’s security?
How does CG grow with the
economy?
How might CG benefit from better
relations with Cuba?
How do we protect
ourselves from cyber terrorism?
How might increasing state role
impact the CG?
How might CG benefit
from stagnating IT
growth?
In what ways might CG work with
global government? How can CG
prepare for large scale
environment impacts?
How might we reduce
dependence on natural resources?
How might CG address
opening polar region?
How will CG personnel
receive quality
medical care?
How might CG take
advantage of technological
advances?
How might CG combat
piracy?
How might CG enhance
antiterrorism partnerships?
Should CG continue to
spend money on anti-terror?
SELC 18 March 2015
13
SELC 18 March 2015Primary•How will CG manage infrastructure in high water?•How might CG address opening polar region?•How might CG combat piracy?•How will CG maintain the nation’s security?•Should CG continue to spend money on anti-terror?•How might we reduce dependence on natural resources?•How might CG enhance antiterrorism partnerships?•How might CG take advantage of technological advances?Secondary•How might CG benefit from stagnating IT growth?•How will CG incorporate eco fuels into the fleet?•In what ways might CG work with a global government?•How can CG prepare for large scale environment impacts?•How will CG personnel receive quality medical care?•How might increasing state role impact the CG?•How might CG benefit from better relations with Cuba?•How do we protect ourselves from cyber terrorism?Tertiary•How does CG spend a robust budget?•How does CG grow with the economy? 14
How might CG integrate with states?
What energy is used to
power mobile assets?
What are CG cyber security
strategies?
How CG shape policy in absence of
federal guidance?
How will CG survive
austere fiscal environment?
How might CG budget to be effective in its missions?
How might CG power our
ships and aircraft?
How might CG respond
to alternative fuel maritime
disasters?
How are CG leaders
advocating for $ and
authorities?
How is CG adapting to serve new centers of gravity?
How is CG aiding in
pandemic control?
How will CG infrastructure
adapt to a rising sea?
How will CG ops be
affected by regional war?
How to conduct LMR
in thriving environment?
How to address
infrastructure challenges of
rising sea?
How might CG keep up
with accelerated
technologies?
Where are our OPCs?!
MOCTC 06 April 2015
15
Primary•Where are our OPCs?!•How are CG leaders advocating for money and authorities?Secondary•How will CG survive austere fiscal environment?•How CG shape policy in absence of federal guidance?•What are CG cyber security strategies?•How might CG budget to be effective in its missions?•How might CG respond to alternative fuel maritime disasters?•How might CG power our ships and aircraft?•How to address infrastructure challenges of rising sea?•What energy is used to power mobile assets?•How might CG keep up with accelerated technologies?Tertiary•How might CG integrate with states?•How to conduct LMR in thriving environment?•How is CG adapting to serve new centers of gravity?•How is CG aiding in pandemic control?•How will CG ops be affected by regional war?
MOCTC 06 April 2015
16
…combat crime?
How will CG vessels handle
extreme weather?
How does CG deal with educated enlisted corps?
How would CG defeat
cyber attacks?
What is the CG’s global footprint?
…operate in the current
weak economy?
…continue to articulate
need for our existence?
How might CG capitalize
on the rebounding economy?
How might the CG
increase its global
presence?
How might CG expand global env response
capabilities?
…battle a pandemic?How would
CG fit into DOD?
Will CG have role in
protecting environment?
SELC 21 April 2015
17
How might CG expand adaptability
to global threats?
Primary•…continue to articulate need for our existence?•Will the CG have a role in protecting the environment?•How would the CG defeat cyber attacks?
Secondary•How can the CG expand its adaptability to global threats?•How will CG vessels handle extreme weather?•What is the CG’s global footprint?•…operate in the current weak economy?•…combat crime?•How does the CG deal with a highly educated enlisted workforce?•How would CG fit into DOD?
Tertiary•How might CG capitalize on the rebounding economy?•How might the CG expand global environmental response capabilities?•…battle a pandemic?
SELC 21 April 2015
18
How might the Coast
Guard deal with climate
change?
CG partners with DOD to combat and
deter cyberterror
How might CG address
political violence?
How might CG address
shifting focus of natural resources?
How might CG deal with LE issues and
response?
How would the CG deal
with the evolution of technology?
Alternative energy for
cutters, boats,
facilities.
Improve relations with
India and China.
Training, PPE, and screening
policy for pandemics.
CG sets priority on
Arctic fisheries.
SELC 10 June 2015
19
Balanced budget
integrating humans and automation.
How might CG address
privatization and
outsourcing?
Primary•How would the CG deal with the evolution of technology?
Secondary•CG partners with DOD to combat and deter cyberterrorism.•How might CG address shifting focus of natural resources based on new fisheries, new oil finds, etc.?•How might the CG deal with climate change?•How might the CG address privatization and outsourcing due to the weak federal government?•CG sets priority on Arctic fisheries.•Balanced budget integrating humans and automation. •How might CG address political violence against municipal, state, and federal entities?•How might CG deal with LE issues and response?
Tertiary•Alternative energy for cutters, boats, facilities. •Training, PPE, and screening policy for pandemics. •CG works with State Department to improve relations with India and China.
SELC 10 June 2015
20
Questions?
Evergreen Program ManagerOffice of Strategic Analysis
U.S. Coast Guard(202) 372-4561
CDR Eric Popiel
Assistant Evergreen Program ManagerOffice of Strategic Analysis
U.S. Coast Guard(202) 372-4575
LCDR Molly Waters
21