everything changes but change

Email: [email protected]

Tel: +44-1727-832288

Susan Bull

Senior Consultant

COMSYS LLP

London, UK

VSAT Latin America

Sao Paulo 21.06.2016

Everything changes,

but change

Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016

2

VSAT

innovative

critical

everywhere

profitable

obvious

but restricted

but ignored

but nowhere

but insignificant

but invisible


3

global enterprise VSAT

has continued to grow (just)

the technology has adapted

helped by consumer volumes

volume success has been based

on a combination of cost and

reliability

as well as ubiquity, uniformity and

uniqueness


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service segment evolution

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Utility - 8.1%

Travel - 1.3%

Telecom - 5.%

Services - 19.1%

Retail - 7.2%

Mftr/Dist - 2.2%

Information - 15.8%

Other - 0.4%

Financial - 17.3%

Government - 23.5%

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04 15


ATMs

Back-up

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Retail

Lottery

Manufacturing

Utility

Government

SME Broadband

Banking

Maritime

Mobility

sales

segment

evolution

Aeronautical

Cell Backhaul


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enterprise VSAT growth

scada systems

atm machines

lottery terminals

credit verification

environmental monitoring

and ultimately ..

iot

digital divide


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corporate VSAT growth

maritime

energy

cellular backhaul

military

emergency services

aeronautical

resource


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in transitionin transition

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consumer ambitions

economic & political variance

strong domestically

growing regional services

governmental recognition

digital divide

cellular backhaul/extension


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Enterprise Consumer Enterprise Consumer

3Y CAGR -14.6% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0%

5Y CAGR -1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0%

Hardware Service

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in transitionin transition


filling unfulfilled potential?filling unfulfilled potential?

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india, china, se asia, australia, pacific

extension of challenged terrestrial

vsat’s positioning prowess

atms/financial, government, cell backhaul

o&g, maritime and mining

highly competitive space segment

plus ipstar, o3b, kacific, nbn

emerging and confusing markets


14

local changelocal change

1414

fibre redefinition & price pressure

local opportunities

satellite (over?) ambitions

questionable consumer

recovering enterprise

elephants hold the trunks!


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but by solving one problem we have

created an even bigger one

one that needs to be fixed

and will be fixed in time

our solution to bandwidth constraint

18


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hts of all types will dominate

satellite bandwidth at some

point

the hts business model has been based

on inflexible closed systems

it’s worked in the us .. but it is it is not

proving to be a viable solution

internationally

we need more spacecraft flexibility

we need better bandwidth management

we need greater system modularity

we need adaptable & extensible nms


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sunrise … or sunset?

!?


21

satellite operators

are seeing declining revenues ..

it’s the beginning of the end of their

business model

working their way down the value chain

is considered the solution

but do they have the experience and

resources?

and how will their customers react?


22

closed systems

reduce VSAT operator value

increase satellite operator control and share

remove attractiveness for most providers

considerable resistance is evident

commoditise and devalue satellite solutions

potentially expand volume, but limit application

bring a lower cost/bit which is only now

beginning to emerge .. at a cost


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leos

face huge development obstacles

will happen

will probably deploy in phases

will be closed systems

won’t be until the end of the decade

will be consumer focused

will be hugely disruptive


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businesses will adopt leo services

latency will be the trump card

leos might incorporate some geo lessons

possible operator configuration

enterprise focused partners

different terminal options

hybrid geo/leo solution integration

leos are a potential strategic opportunity


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vsat operators

are consolidating

are specialising

are hybridising

are defocusing

coverage, scale, investment are

considered the critical factors

possible investment in satellite systems

but every operator needs a pillar

….. in most cases mobility related


27

does the future lie with satellite operators ..

or with VSAT operators ..

or with carriers?

will VSAT systems become commoditised ..

do we require customisation ..

or standardisation?

is there a future for small VSAT operators?

so where does this leave us?so where does this leave us?


28

TOMORROW

BELONGSTO

THOSEWHO

CANHEARIT

COMING


reading the signsreading the signs

29

bandwidth is no longer the key

leverage of customer & segment expertise

physical assets become a liability

service and application integration essential

consolidation and vertical integration

specialisation and focus

consumer service disruption

subscriber cost-reduction business models


30

bandwidth value diminishes as capacity grows

satellite operators are facing their kodak moment

the challenges are fierce

opportunity exists …. but you need to focus & innovate

vsat operators have the keys to the kingdom

hybridisation is becoming a strategic essential

everything changes but change

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