evidence-based management for software organizations
DESCRIPTION
Evidence-Based Management for Software Organizations. How not to get fooled by our believes. How to measure organizational value. How stop jumping from fad to fad brainlessly.TRANSCRIPT
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1.00.03
cbnd Tomasz Włodarek
EBMgt™
for Software Organizations
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software is eating the world
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
Our civilization runs on software. –B.Stroustrup
In short, software is eating the world. –M.Andreessen
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460 ”
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© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
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§ annual budgeting § human resource management (people shuffling) § fixed-everything (but quality) contracting § vertical org structures (competence silos) § phase-gate/stage-gate approaches § enterprise architecture § employee performance reviews § risk management § disciplined/scaled agility § …
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
management. a matter of beliefs?
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§ devs are not good enough to talk to the customer (so let’s isolate them) § testers are less skilled than programmers (so let’s pay them less) § people work more efficient under pressure (so let’s talk them into fake
deadlines) § people work more efficient when promised a reward (so let’s create a clever
bonus system) § buffering is the best risk mitigation technique (so let’s multiply estimates by
some magic factor) § more people more work done (so let’s hire more contractors) § management is a matter of telling people what to do (so let’s micromanage
everyone) § our company is organized vertically (so let's just ignore the fact that value is
created horizontally) § more code the better (so let’s put quality aside for now) § estimates are just like commitments (so let’s build huge plans around them) § manual testing is just more flexible (so let’s postpone automation till never) § according to magazine/book/conference I read/attended … (so let’s make it
a policy) § on my last team/company … (so let’s make it mandatory here) § our case is so unique (we simply can’t do X here, so we won’t even try) § …
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
beliefs spark beliefs. and behaviors.
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© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
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§ System 1 – the instant, unconscious, emotional, intuitive thinking. It operates automatically, with no effort. Feels like it happens to you.
§ System 2 – the slower, conscious, rational, reasoning and thinking. It allocates attention to the effortful mental activities. This is what you have to deliberately do.
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
a story of two minds.
A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
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System 1 effortlessly originates impressions and feelings that are the
main sources of the explicit beliefs and deliberate choices of System 2.
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
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§ confirmation bias § halo effect § egocentric bias § false consensus effect § backfire effect § hindsight bias § sunk cost fallacy § either/or choice § seeing order in randomness § misinterpretation of incomplete data § cognitive dissonance reduction § normalcy bias § anchoring bias § …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
a story of two minds. horribly biased.
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wake up System 2!!(surprise)
better? faster? cheaper? (you sure? like by how much?)
(is the change easily reversible?)
(what are the next steps and why?)
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
is your new organization…
let’s kick!System 2 right in its sleepy butt…
most likely!
System 1 replies
wake up!!!(reasoning)
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§ we’ve spent fortune on The Framework™, training, consultancy and tools
§ we do continuous integration § we do test first and code reviews § we measure teams velocity § we’ve automated our builds § we have whiteboards and stickies everywhere § we have kanban boards § we use original Planning Poker™ cards § …
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
it has to be better… oh, it’s definitely
System 1 we’re talking to (substitution)
… up to this point!System 1 has!eclipsed System 2.!Coherence is high,!beliefs get reinforced.!No rationale, just opinions.!A bummer.
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but wait, I still can do fixed-scope in Scrum, right?
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sure. you will get to the wrong destination in a series of sprints.
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© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
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how can one measure ”better” better?
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
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Our highest priority is to satisfy the customer through early and
continuous delivery of valuable software.
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
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Evidence-based management is about making decisions through the conscientious, explicit, and judicious use of four sources of information: practitioner expertise and judgment, evidence from the local context, a critical evaluation of the best available research evidence, and the perspectives of those people who might be affected by the decision.
The Oxford Handbook of Evidence-Based Management. Briner, Denyer, Rousseau, 2009
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
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© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
evidence = assertion + data System 2 (reason)
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§ formulate an answerable question
§ search for the best available evidence
§ critically appraise the evidence
§ integrate the evidence with your managerial expertise and organisational concerns and apply
§ monitor the outcome
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
Evidence-Based Management
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© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
29 © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved
A Starting Recipe for Collecting Direct Evidence of Value
Value!
Current!Value!
Time!to!Market!
Ability!to!
Innovate!
Revenue"per"Employee"Product"Cost"Ra:o"Employee"Sa:sfac:on"Customer"Sa:sfac:on"
Release"Frequency"Release"Stabiliza:on"Cycle"Time"
Installed"Version"Index"Usage"Index"
Innova:on"Rate"Defect"Density"
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© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
EBMgt for Software Organizations runs on Scrum mindset – empiricism and self-organization – to optimize value.
*KVAs – Key Value Areas, KVMs – Key Value Measures
(it adds explicit evidence and critical thinking as a wake up kick for System 2)
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Developing these experimentation systems is the responsibility of senior management; they have to
be put in by the leadership. –Scott D. Cook
http://www.inc.com/magazine/20040401/25cook.html
scientific experimentation
”“
© 2014 Tomasz Włodarek. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License (by-nc-nd).
System 1 (intuition) System 2 (reason)
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Agility is not about any particular shape or form of an organization.
It’s all about its ability to change and to deliver value under uncertain
conditions.
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thank you!
EBMgt for Software Organizations Guide. http://www.ebmgt.org/Evidence-Based-Management
Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths, and Total Nonsense: Profiting from Evidence-based Management. Jeffrey Pfeffer, Robert I. Sutton, 2006
The Oxford Handbook of Evidence-Based Management. Denise M. Rousseau, 2014
Thinking, Fast and Slow. Daniel Kahneman, 2011 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjVQJdIrDJ0)
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, Nassim N. Taleb, 2012 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3REdLZ8Xis)
[email protected] http://www.linkedin.com/in/wlodarek
http://www.scrum.org http://www.poddrzewem.pl
http://www.ebmgt.org