evidence-based risk assessement - unfccc · 2020. 3. 17. · 11 climate risk modelling up and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Evidence-based Risk AssessementExperiences from the ECA methodology
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Key questions faced by decision-makers:
1. What is the potential climate-related damage over the coming decades?
2. How much of that damage can be averted, using what type of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) measures?
3. What investments will be required to fund those measures, and will the benefits of these investment outweigh the costs?
2
The Economics of Climate Adaptation
inintiated by
first „field“ projects by
first Guidebook by
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Guyana: Flash flood risk to a developing urban area
Tanzania
Tanzania: Drought risk to health and power generation
Samoa: Risk of sea level rise to a small island state
Florida: Hurricane risk to public and private assets
Mali: Risk of climate zone shift to agriculture
India: Drought risk to agriculture
Caribbean: Hurricane risk to small islands
US Gulf Coast: Hurricane risk to the energy system
New York: Cyclones and surge risk to a metropolis
Hull, UK: Flood and storm risk to urban property
Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) Working Group, a partnership between the Global Environment Facility, McKinsey & Company, Swiss Re, the Rockefeller
Foundation, ClimateWorks Foundation, the European Commission, and Standard Chartered Bank.
China: Drought risk to agriculture
Bangladesh: Flood risk to a fast-developing city
El Salvador: Flood and landslide risk to vulnerable people
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A full integration of Climada
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The Economics of Climate Adaptation: the Smart-Mix
Mea
sure
#2
Mea
sure
#1
Net Averted Damage (Mio $)
Be
nef
it C
ost
Rat
io
Total Climate Risk
1
Potential for Risk transfer
Smart-Mix Approach
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Application to urban floods in San Salvador
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Step by step
AssetsMonetary values
Hazards (including scenarios)frequency and intensity
Exposed Non exposed
Damage curvesDamage and hazard intensity
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• Hazard Modelling • Asset Valuation • Vulnerability curves
Application of ECA in San Salvador
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CCA measures for flood risk considering different scenarios
Results and Outputs
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The Economics of Climate Adaptation
Advantages
• Provides a scientific fact base
• Additional hazards can be integrated to the original model
• Spatial and scale flexibility (can be applied every where and at different scale)
• Excellent visualization of results
Challenges
• High level of expertise is needed (e.g. hazard modelling, economics, etc.)
• Expertise in MATLAB/Python necessary
• Uncertainties are not explicitly quantified
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Climate Risk Modelling
Up and coming
• Producing an evidence-based assessment to foster transparency and trust in the financing of adaptation and disaster risk management;
• Quantifying the value added by insurance solutions when they are integrated into the portfolio of other CCA measures;
• Providing quick estimates of damage to guide relief mobilisation and support early recovery;
• Potential for sustainable impact (risk profiles, cost-benefit analysis, ownership, etc.):
• Potential for digitalisation (machine learning, open source data integration, framework integration).
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Thank You!
Sönke Kreft
Executive Director
MCII/UNU-EHS
E-mail: [email protected]
www.climate-insurance.org
http://ehs.unu.edu
Follow us on Twitter: @_MCII_
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• Hazard Modelling
Hazard Modelling
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• Asset Valuation
Asset Valuation
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Expected Damage per Scenario
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Ranking of Adaptation measures