evolution of mobility · 2020-05-15 · 2015 2016 2016 ride & car sharing trend research...
TRANSCRIPT
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EVOLUTION OF MOBILITY:AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
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Source: Cox Automotive 2
Mass Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles is the Inflection Point for a Shift in Mobility
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Passenger
Mile
s T
ravele
d
FLEET-OWNEDVEHICLE MILES
CONSUMER-OWNEDVEHICLE MILES
TODAY FUTURE
Inflection Point
AV, EV
4 0 % R E D U C T I O N I N C O N S U M E R S A L E S
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CONSUMER TRUST IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES LOSES GROUND
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Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study 4
Consumer Desire for Autonomous Features is High
23% 23%
16% 15% 14%18%
12%16% 18%
10% 11%
65% 63%66%
64% 64% 60%
57% 52% 52%55% 53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Collisionwarning alert
system
Collisionavoidance
system
Adaptiveheadlights
Lane keepingassist
360-degreecamera
Adaptivecruise control
Active parkingassist
Smartphoneapp
integration
Phone OSintegration
Heads-updisplay
Wi-Fi hotspot
F E AT U R E I N T E R E S T F O R N E X T V E H I C L E
Must Have Nice to Have
AV Features
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More Than Half of Consumers Agree that New Technology Makes Better Drivers
5
54%
NEW TECH FEATURES MAKE PEOPLE
BETTER DRIVERS
• Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study
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Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study 6
But Consumers Feel Less Comfortable with Full Autonomy
68%
would feel uncomfortable
riding in an AV fully driven
by a computer
Compared to 39% who feel uncomfortable
in a vehicle driven by a stranger
84%
think people should always
have the option to drive
themselves even in an AV
Compared to 16% who would feel comfortable
letting an AV drive them without the option of
being able to take control
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As defined by SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) levels for automated driving systems 7
Survey Definitions of Autonomy Levels
LEVEL 5 Vehicles don’t contain steering wheel or pedals, and can’t be driven by humans
LEVEL 4 Vehicle can operate all aspects of driving. Humans can still drive if they want to
LEVEL 3Vehicle can take over driving in the city or on highways, but
requires a human driver for unmarked roadways or highly congested areas
LEVEL 2 Corrects lane drifting and avoids forward/rear collisions
LEVEL 1 Cruise control, Anti-lock brakes, Lane-keeping assist
LEVEL 0 No Cruise control, Anti-lock brakes, or Lane-keeping assist
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8
Autonomy is Not a New Idea…
2003 2018
2009 2013 2015 2016
Major OEMs start
working on self-
driving technology
Auto-pilot
introduced
Uber
tests
Self-driving
car project
launches
Parking assist
technology emerges
(Toyota Prius)
2003
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Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study 9
Awareness of Autonomy has Exploded
58%56%
40%
78% 78%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
2016 2018
+20 +22
+24
Full autonomy (no human)Full autonomy (+ human)Partial autonomy
AV A W A R E N E S S
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Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study 10
Safety Perceptions of Autonomous Vehicles Have Dropped
AV S A F E T Y P E R C E P T I O N S“Safe” (%Agree)
73%
64%
47%
59%
45%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
2016 2018
-14
-19
-19
Full autonomy (no human)Full autonomy (+ human)Partial autonomy
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And Roads Deemed Less Safe With Fully Autonomous Vehicles
11
R O A D W AY S W O U L D B E S A F E R I F A L L
V E H I C L E S W E R E F U L LY A U T O N O M O U S(vs. operated by people)
63%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2016 2018
• Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study
-18
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Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study 12
AV Preference Has Shifted From Level 4 to Level 2
M O S T A P P E A L I N G A U T O N O M Y L E V E L
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4 LEVEL 5
2016 2018
-8%
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Nearly Half Would Never Buy a Level 5 Autonomous Vehicle
13
30%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2016 2018
+19
• Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study
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Older Generations Are More Apprehensive
14
48%
GEN Z
39%
MILLENNIALS
56%
GEN X
71%
BABY BOOMERS
W O U L D N E V E R
B U Y A L E V E L 5
• Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study
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Urbanites More Open to Fully Autonomous Vehicles
15
41%
58%55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Urban Suburban Rural
• Source: 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study
W O U L D N E V E R
B U Y A L E V E L 5
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16
52%
are aware that autonomous
technology is being tested
on real cars on public
roads and highways
Source: Cox Automotive Uber Self-Driving Car Incident Consumer Poll (March 2018)
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17Source: Cox Automotive Uber Self-Driving Car Incident Consumer Poll (March 2018)
75%
Agree that AVs need
real world testing in
order to be perfected
BUT…
54%prefer this testing take place
in a different town or city
from where they live
54%would not feel comfortable
walking near roads these
tests take place
50%would not feel comfortable
driving on the same roads
these tests take place
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18
Actual Phoenix Waymo User
“I’ve taken a Waymo here in Tempe, AZ, where they’ve
been in service for a while. I think it’s pretty cool. I think it’s
the wave of the future, and I think that more people will
actually be taking these cars. I felt safe the entire time.”
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19Source: Cox Automotive Uber Self-Driving Car Incident Consumer Poll (March 2018)
61%
Aware of Uber’s
self-driving
incident
58%Uber
6% Volvo
BRANDS ASSOCIATED…
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20
Who Should Shoulder Responsibility in
an Accident is a Point of Disagreement
27%Software
Developer
26% OEM
24%Vehicle
Rider/Owner
Source: Cox Automotive Uber Self-Driving Car Incident Consumer Poll (March 2018)
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CONCLUSIONS
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22
Conclusions
Despite some set
backs, the desire for
autonomous
features is strong
and growing.
Education highlighting
AV effectiveness is
key to alleviate
consumers’ safety
concerns.
Consumer advocacy
and real-world
experience with the
technology is key to
adoption.
1 2 3 4
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QUESTIONS?
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APPENDIX
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25
About the Study
Evolution
of Mobility
We interviewed 1,250 consumers
2018
2016Driver of the Future:
Autonomous Vehicles2,264 Consumers
2016Emerging In-Vehicle
Car Technology1,334 Consumers
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26
EVOLUTION OF MOBILITY STUDY
PHASE 1:
Understand consumer acceptance of emerging mobility options over last 3 years
1,250 consumers ages 12+
Release: Q3
PHASE 3:
Understand the mobility choices consumers would make assuming all mobility options were available, considering trade-offs on monthly costs, convenience, etc.
2,000 consumers ages 12+
Release: 4Q18
PHASE 2:
Understand dealer awareness, perceptions and readiness of emerging mobility trends
400 automotive dealers
Release: Late 3Q18
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Phase 1 Methodology
27
2015
2016
2016
Ride & Car Sharing
Trend Research
Emerging In-Vehicle
Car Technology
Car Driver of the
Future: Autonomous
Vehicles
Evolution
of
Mobility
Over the last three years,
Cox Automotive has done
research to investigate the
trends in ride & car sharing,
autonomous vehicles, and
car technology. In 2018, the
Evolution of Mobility study
revisited these topics to see
where the trends were
headed, and explore a
newcomer to the scene:
car subscriptions.
2018
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Evolution of Mobility
Fielded: May 8th - 14th, 2018
n=1,250
• n=1,006 18+
• n=244 12-17
Generations:
• Gen Z: n=340
• Millennials: n=262
• Gen X: n=313
• Baby Boomers: n=287
• Silent Generation: n=48
Transport Density groups:
• Urban: n=143
• Suburban: n=684
• Rural: n=171
Must have used one transportation
method in the past 6 months
Phase 1 Methodology
28
Ride & Car Sharing
Trend Research
Fielded: August 3rd - 9th,
2015
n=2,464
• n=1,916 18-64
• n=548 12-17
Generations:
• Gen Z: n=641
• Millennials: n=850
• Gen X: n=532
• Baby Boomers: n=441
Transport Density groups:
• Urban: n=344
• Suburban: n=1,264
• Rural: n=289
Emerging In-Vehicle Car
Technology
Fielded: September 22nd - 27th, 2016
n=1,334
• n=1,020 18+
• n=314 16-17
Generations:
• Gen Z: n=376
• Millennials: n=298
• Gen X: n=341
• Baby Boomers: n=243
• Silent Generation: n=76
Transport Density groups:
• Urban: n=200
• Suburban: n=870
• Rural: n=250
Must have a driver’s license
Car Driver of the
Future: Autonomous
Vehicles
Fielded: May 20th - 27th, 2016
n=2,264
• 1,992 18-64
• n=272 12-17
Generations:
• Gen Z: n=376
• Millennials: n=642
• Gen X: n=680
• Baby Boomers: n=566
Transport Density groups:
• Urban: n=383
• Suburban: n=1,521
• Rural: n=348
Must have used one transportation
method in the past 6 months
2015 2016 2016 2018