evolution of the bond market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · the birth of the municipal bond...

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CDIAC MUNICIPAL DEBT ESSENTIALS SEMINAR Introduction: Evolution of the Bond Market October 2016

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Page 1: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

C D I A C M U N I C I P A L D E B T E S S E N T I A L S S E M I N A R

Introduction: Evolution of the Bond Market

October 2016

Page 2: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market

New York City

Issues First

Municipal

Bonds

Panic of 1873

Revenue Act

of 1913

codified

exemption of

muni interest

1812 1873 1879 1913

California

Constitution

Places Limits

on Debt

1

1933/

1934

1933 and 1934

Securities Act

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Page 3: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

Today’s Municipal Market Characteristics

US Bond Market Debt Outstanding

(4Q 2015)2015 Municipal Issuance by Sector

Source: Bond Buyer

Mortgage Related

22%

Corporate20%

Treasury33%

Money Market

7%

Federal Agency

5%

Municipal9%

Asset-Backed

4%

Total = $40.0 Trillion

Source: SIFMA

Other

6%Housing

4%

Transportation

12%

Healthcare

9%

Utilities/

Electric Power

15%

Education

31%

General

Purpose

23%

Total = $403.8 Billion

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Page 4: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

Key market statistics

How Does the Municipal Market Compare to Other Markets

Market Market

Size

# of

Issuers

# of

CUSIPs

% Direct

Retail

Avg Daily

Volume

Avg Daily

# of Trades

Avg $ /

Trade

Equities $50.0 T 5,700 10,000 35% $76.8 BN 9,800,000 $8,000

Corporate Bonds $7.7 T 5,000 20,000 10% $19.2 BN 37,000 $519,000

Municipal Bonds $3.7 T 46,000 1,100,000 51% $6.9 BN 38,000 $161,000

Source: EMMA, SIFMA, Bloomberg, NYSE/NASDAQ, TRACE, GAO

Note: Data reflects U.S. market only, bond data excludes money market activity

Individual municipal bonds trade on average once every 27 days while an individual equity trades

on average ~980 times per day

Municipal bonds are not registered with the SEC: the SEC cannot directly enforce continuing

disclosure practices of municipal entities

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Page 5: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

Leases Special Fund Imposed by Law1 2 3

What is Considered Debt in California?

City of Los Angeles v.

Offner

(1942)

City of Oxnard v. Dale

(1955)

Lewis v. Widber

(1893)

Dean v. Duchel

(1950)

San Francisco S. Co. v.

Contra Costa Co.

(1929).

County of Los Angeles v.

Byram

(1951)

California’s Constitutional Debt Limit

Article XVI, section 18, provides in part: “No county, city, town, township, board of

education, or school district, shall incur any indebtedness or liability in any manner or

for any purpose exceeding in any year the income and revenue provided for such year,

without the assent of two-thirds of the qualified electors thereof, voting at an election to

be held for that purpose ...."

In 2015 California municipalities issued $57 billion in debt, 38% was voter approved

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Page 6: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

During the 20th Century, Californians and the Courts Redefined Voter Approval

Proposition 13

Proposition 62

Guardino decision

Proposition 218

Proposition 26

Proposition 53?

Mello-Roos

Use of assessments

Use of fees

General tax

New ApproachesThe People Fight Back

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Page 7: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

The Financial Crisis Changed the Municipal Debt Market Landscape

Casualties of the Financial Crisis

6

Variable Rate Debt

• Auction Rate Securities

• Synthetic Fixed Rate Debt

Receivership of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Bond Insurers

• Insurance for debt service

• Surety Bonds

Consolidation/Elimination of Firms

• Bear Stearns bought by J.P. Morgan

• Bankruptcy of Lehman

• Sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America

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Page 8: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

California’s Municipal Market Trends Before and After the Financial Crisis

Refunding50%

Refunding & New Money

26%

New Money24%

California 2015 New Money vs. Refunding

Refunding19%

Refunding & New Money

15%New Money

66%

California 2006 New Money vs. Refunding

Source: SDC as of October 6, 2016

Fixed Rate86%

Variable Rate14%

California 2006 Fixed vs. Variable Rate

Fixed Rate99%

Variable Rate1%

California 2015 Fixed vs. Variable Rate

Insured 12%

Uninsured88%

California 2015 Insured vs. Uninsured

Insured 71%

Uninsured29%

California 2006 Insured vs. Uninsured

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Page 9: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

Enforcement, Regulation, Disclosure

15c2-12

Amendment

of 15c2-12

Pension

Enforcement

Actions

Enacted in 1989 in response to WPPSS default

Governed disclosure for municipal bonds by regulating underwriters

Enacted in 1995 in response to Orange County bankruptcy

Requires continuing disclosure

SEC Enforcement Actions for inadequate pension disclosures

City of San Diego (2006), States of New Jersey (2010), Illinois (2013),

Kansas (2014)

Enforcement Division Unit created in 2010

Dodd-Frank Act gave SEC new power to obtain fines in administrative

(“cease and desist”) actions

MCDC

Announced in March 2014 by SEC

Focus on whether an offering document was materially accurate with

respect to compliance with continuing disclosure undertakings

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Page 10: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

SEC MCDC Program

SEC enforcement program aimed at public agencies which made material mis-

statements about their continuing disclosure compliance

Program involves public agencies and underwriters self-reporting prior material mis-

statements

Consent agreements with underwriters were issued in 2015

Enforcement actions against municipal issuers announced in 2016; agreements with

issuers are expected in 2016

SEC Charges 71 Municipal Issuers in Muni Bond

Disclosure Initiative

08/24/2016 11:00 AM EDT

The Securities and Exchange Commission today

announced enforcement actions against 71

municipal issuers and other obligated persons for

violations in municipal bond offerings.

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Page 11: Evolution of the Bond Market - treasurer.ca.gov · 26/10/2016 · The Birth of the Municipal Bond Market New York City Issues First Municipal Bonds Panic of 1873 Revenue Act of 1913

An Illustration of the Changes in Disclosure Practices

14 Total Pages

3 Pages Describing Current Budget

Outstanding GO Debt of $1.4 billion

California GO 1959 California GO 2016

396 Total Pages

12 Pages Describing Current Budget

Outstanding Debt of $75.7 billion

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