Evolution of the Tropical Forests since 1990 and analysis of the deforestation drivers

Philippe Mayaux, Frédéric Achard, René Beuchle, Hans-Jürgen Stibig, Hugh D. Eva, Andreas Brink,

Catherine Bodart, Silvia Carboni, Baudouin Desclée, François Donnay, Andrea Lupi, Jukka Miettinen, Rastislav Raši, Roman Seliger, Dario Simonetti

Institute for Environment and SustainabilityJoint Research Centre - European Commission

+ FAO collaborators

+ 150 regional experts

JRC heritage in tropical forest monitoring

TREES-1 (1992-1997)First reliable maps of the tropical forests

TREES-2 (1997-2003)Global estimates of deforestation

TREES-3 (2007-2013)Regional estimates of deforestation + C emissions

FOROBS (2014-2016)Assessment of forest degradation

OFAC (2007-2016)Regional Observatory for Central African Forests

ReCaREDD (2014-2017) Capacity-building on forest degradation

Joint FAO/JRC report

Final report released in Dec. 2012

FAO & JRC. 2012 Global forest land-use change

1990–2005

FAO Forestry Paper No. 169. Food and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations and European Commission Joint Research Centre. Rome, FAO.

http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/remotesensingsurvey/en/

1990 2000 2005 2010

FAO/JRC Forest Resource Assessment

Sub-Saharan Africa 2,045

Central & South America and the Caribbean

1,230

South and Southeast Asia

741

The methodology is based on the analysis of a systematic sample of sitesfor which 30 m resolution satellite data are collected

Systematic sampling of Landsat images at 3 epochs

Change Map 1990-20001990

2000

No changeChange

From Forest

ChangeTo

Forest

Methodology: Example

Workshop East Africa

Nairobi (28 Sept- 2 Oct 2009)

12 Experts from 10 countries

4 support staff including 3 JRC

Workshop Central Africa

Kinshasa (28 Sept- 9 Oct 2009)

15 Experts from 7 countries

6 support staff from FAO, UCL & JRC

Workshop West Africa

Dakar (08-13 March 2010)

15 Experts from 14 countries

3 JRC support staff

Workshop Southern Africa

Cape Town (3-7 May 2010)

15 Experts from 8 countries

3 support staff including 2 JRC

Regional TREES-3 Validation Workshops for Africa

Forest area (106 ha)

Deforestation estimates (H+D Forests)

1990-2000

2000-2010

Drivers of Change in Southeast Asia

12

Deforestation drivers in Amazon Basin

Direct drivers• Agro-business: wide range of commodities such as

beef, soy, maize, oil palm, sugar, rice, cacao, coffee, pulp & paper, tobacco.

• Subsistence agriculture (+ fuel wood)• Forest exploitation (timber extraction, artisanal

logging…)• Extractive industries (mining, oil)• Infrastructure and urbanisation

Underlying causes• Population growth and local economic

development• Weak governance structures and law• Global demand for commodities

Deforestation drivers in Congo Basin

Drivers Importance

Subsistence agriculture Rural and food for cities

Fuel wood & charcoal Rural and peri-urban

Mining, oil Limited extent, but strong impact

Logging in concessions Very low impact

Illegal logging ????

Agro-industry Low impact, but increasing

Infrastructure Limited extent but increasing

Urbanisation Limited extent but increasing

Climate Change Drier climate in coastal part

Underlying causes

Population growth

Local economic development

Weak governance (institutions and law)

Need for a long-term land-use planning

Category Role Research needs Incentives/ policies

Forests Timber Production

Ecology (regeneration) FLEGT, Lacey Act…REDD+

Forests / plantations

Fuel wood production

Agronomy Carbon credits / CDM

Forests Protection and Conservation

CC mitig. / adapt.Hydrology

REDD+Biodiv. royalties

Forests NTFP, bushmeat Sustainability of proteins provision

Small-scaleAgriculture

Food for rural population

AgronomySocio-economy

Price policy

Agro-industries High revenue Agronomy Market prices, Round tables

Mines, oil Revenue Impact assessment Market prices, EITI

Kompsat, 4 m resolutionLandsat, 30 m resolution

New data and methods for degradation (RECAREDD)

Conclusions

• Deforestation is still a hot issue, but political will can reduce the intensity of the phenomenon

• Illegal logging is not a main deforestation driver, bad governance is• Focus on other benefits than VPAs of the FLEGT Action Plan

on other policies • FLEGT must be combined with the others EU policies for a

long-term maintenance of the ecosystem services provided by tropical forests: biodiversity, energy, REDD+, sustainable agriculture, EITI…

• FLEGT is an important process, but the goal is the sustainable provision of services by forests

• Need for an innovative land-use planning policy in terms of local, national and global benefit (which ecosystem services for which beneficiaries?)

• TECHNICAL capacities on forest management are desperately missing

MerciThank you