EVOLVING TOWARDS CONTINGENT WORKFORCE PLANNING

“Flexibility is one of the lynchpins of workforce

planning…”

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor

the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is

most adaptable to change.”- Megginson (paraphrasing Darwin’s Origin of the Species), 1963

• The number of contingent employees will increase worldwide. In the

U.S., contingent workers will exceed 40 percent of the workforce by 2020.

(That’s more than 60 million people).

• In 2012, temp workers were 22% of largest 200 companies in USA,

moving to around 50% by 2020.

• Traditional full-time, full-benefit jobs will be harder to find.

• Small businesses will develop their own collaborative networks of

contingent workers, minimizing fixed labor costs and expanding the

available talent pool.

• Self-employment, personal and micro business numbers will increase.

• Government will misclassify workers, creating a major issue for

companies of all sizes

Source: Intuit 2020 Report; BLS

Contingent Workers are more productive than employees

Contingent Workers are more motivated than employees

Contingent Workers are happier than employees

Contingent Workers are cheaper than employees

Contingent Workers are less productive than employees

Contingent Workers are less motivated than employees

Contingent Workers are not as happy as employees

Contingent Workers are more expensive than employees

studies show:

…and other studies show:

Contingent workforce PARADOX

“Contingent work and workers are primarily distinguished by having an

explicitly defined or limited tenure”

- Staffing Industry Analysts

“With the changing economy, no one has lifetime employment, but

community colleges provide lifetime employability”

- Barack Obama

AMY IS A personal Assistant

Source: x.li

Increasing Complexity: Where IS SIRI MADE?

New business models:

CrowDsourcing

Crowdfunding

Personal Manufacturing

Source: quirky.com

NEW JOBS in 2024

• Augmented Reality

• Alternate Currency

• Seed Capitalist

• Global System Architects

• Locationists

• Waste Data Managers

• Urban Agriculture

• Business Colony Managers

• Competition Producers

• Avatar Designer

• 3D Print Engineer

• 3D Print Food Engineer

• Social Education Specialists

• Privacy Managers

• Wind Turbine Repair Technician

• Data Hostage Specialists

• Smart Dust Programmers

• Personality Services

• Smart Contact Lens Developer

• Nano-Medics

• New Science Ethicist

Source: Frey, http://kien.co/1qspJiO

OBSOLETE IN THE NEXT 10-20 YEARS?

• Telemarketers - 99% likelihood of automation

• Hand Sewers - 99%

• New Accounts Clerks - 99%

• Data Entry Keyers - 99%

• Clerical Work in a range of categories - 98%

• Tellers - 98%

• Bookkeeping - 98%

• Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks - 97%

• Cashiers - 97%

Frey and Osborne, The Future of Employment, Oxford Martin School, 2013 http://kien.co/1vUV9Sm

Adapted From: Joseph Voros, A generic foresight process framework (2003)

Possible: What Might Happen?

Plausible: What Could Happen?

Probable: What is Likely to Happen?

Preferable: What do we Want to Happen?

Futures Cone

The many faces of the Contingent worker

Arms-length employment

Nominally Low-Skilled Occupations

that aren’t core business. Often

includes things like call centre work,

assembly line production, catering

and cleaning services.

CRITICAL COVERAGE

High-skilled and socially important

occupations such as nursing and

teaching where coverage is a critical

issue. Often Agency Temps to

supplement internal workforce.

fixed-term Projects

Common for engineering and software

specialists, HR specialists, film

production crews, artists. Usually

highly specific skills that are required

on a short-medium term basis.

Traditionally secure employment

Non recession-proof fields that are

highly skilled, traditionally full-time

employment that are in oversupply,

causing a high reliance on short-term

contracting. (Architects, Lawyers)Constrained choice free choice

LOW Differentiation HIGH Differentiation

Frenkel et. al. 1999, Coyla-Shapiro and Kessler 2002, Dex et. al. 2000, Kunda et. al. 2002, O’Mahoney 2007

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