evolving trends influencing the global maritime industry · evolving trends • china’s economy:...
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EVOLVING TRENDS INFLUENCING THE GLOBAL MARITIME INDUSTRY What will the “new normal” look like and how should we prepare for it?
2016
Richard Clayton, Chief Correspondent, IHS Maritime and Trade [email protected]
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A decade of disruption
• 2008 – this was the year we fell off a cliff
• 2009 – now the only way is up
• 2010 – we saw signs of an upturn
• 2011 – but it was a false dawn
• 2012 – maybe an upturn next year
• 2013 – or perhaps the year after that
• 2014 – this is more than a downturn
• 2015 – it’s a seismic readjustment
• 2016 – made even worse by new orders
• 2017 – overcapacity still working through
• 2018 – the ‘new normal’ becomes clearer
2 Evolving Trends
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In search of the normal for maritime
• Are we reaching a “new normal” state?
• Is this a sustainable position?
• Has there ever been a “normal” state?
3 Evolving Trends
Mathilde Maersk at DP World Southampton
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Evolving trends • China’s economy: boom, bust, or something altogether more fundamental
4 Evolving Trends
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Evolving trends • China’s economy: boom, bust, or something altogether more fundamental
• Low-cost oil: short, sharp pain or a shift in the energy environment
5 Evolving Trends
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Evolving trends • China’s economy: boom, bust, or something altogether more fundamental
• Low-cost oil: short, sharp pain or a shift in the energy environment
• Enforced consolidation: tackling the problem of fragmentation
6 Evolving Trends
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Evolving trends • China’s economy: boom, bust, or something altogether more fundamental
• Low-cost oil: short, sharp pain or a shift in the energy environment
• Enforced consolidation: tackling the problem of fragmentation
• Digital revolution: a numbers game that could change the way we think
7 Evolving Trends
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Evolving trends • China’s economy: boom, bust, or something altogether more fundamental
• Low-cost oil: short, sharp pain or a shift in the energy environment
• Enforced consolidation: tackling the problem of fragmentation
• Digital revolution: a numbers game that could change the way we think
• Supply chain positioning: quay-quay or manufacturer-consumer
8 Evolving Trends
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Evolving trends • China’s economy: boom, bust, or something altogether more fundamental
• Low-cost oil: short, sharp pain or a shift in the energy environment
• Enforced consolidation: tackling the problem of fragmentation
• Digital revolution: a numbers game that could change the way we think
• Supply chain positioning: quay-quay or manufacturer-consumer
9 Evolving Trends
A “new
normal” or
just a
milestone
on a
journey?
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China
10 Evolving Trends
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Oil
11 Evolving Trends
“Even under the most bullish scenario for demand
growth, we still forecast deterioration in crude
tanker utilisation, which has negative implications
for rates, asset values and company earnings.”
Amit Mehrotra, analyst, Deutsche Bank
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Consolidation
12 Evolving Trends
Shipbrokers
Builders
P&I Clubs
Terminal
operators
Partnership
Alliances
Class
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Digital revolution
13 Evolving Trends
No one can guarantee absolute security
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Supply chain
14 Evolving Trends
How will
ships fit
into the
broader
supply
chain as it
evolves?
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Evolving trends: key takeaways
Transition in shipping is not new – it’s normal
15 Evolving Trends
New normal: a previously abnormal state that has now become accepted as commonplace
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Evolving trends: key takeaways
Transition in shipping is not new – it’s normal
China’s restructure and oil price movements are driven by short-term geopolitics
16 Evolving Trends
New normal: a previously abnormal state that has now become accepted as commonplace
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Evolving trends: key takeaways
Transition in shipping is not new – it’s normal
China’s restructure and oil price movements are driven by short-term geopolitics
Shipping decisions have medium-term consequences
17 Evolving Trends
New normal: a previously abnormal state that has now become accepted as commonplace
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Evolving trends: key takeaways
Transition in shipping is not new – it’s normal
China’s restructure and oil price movements are driven by short-term geopolitics
Shipping decisions have medium-term consequences
Maritime serves trade, not the other way round. We need to discover longer-term solutions that can accommodate short- and medium-term shocks
18 Evolving Trends
New normal: a previously abnormal state that has now become accepted as commonplace
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© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Evolving trends: Key takeaways
Decisions must be taken to enable a transition to a less China-focused industry, for which the price of oil will remain low.
A less fragmented industry will be more efficient, while a better-connected industry could be more profitable, provided the issue of cyber security is addressed.
A more efficient and profitable shipping sector will play a more significant part in the global supply chain.
19 Evolving Trends
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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