evs emerging challenges
DESCRIPTION
EVS Emerging ChallengesTRANSCRIPT
Environmental challenges to Environmental challenges to Agriculture and the emerging Agriculture and the emerging
solutionssolutions
A.K. Joshi
Department of Genetics & Plant BreedingInstitute of Agricultural Sciences
Banaras Hindu University
Environment & AgricultureEnvironment & Agriculture• Agriculture is strongly linked to
environment and they both to human population
• Initially, challenges to agriculture increased since human population increased
• As population grew, cities emerged and pressure on agriculture increased further, causing “Non-sustainability”
Solutions emerged!Solutions emerged!• First by domestication of crops (around
10,000 years ago) and then by management• Domestication of cattle for cultivation: ~9000
years ago• First plough: ~ 6000 years ago• Horse collar: 3rd century BC – In China• 1701 AD: Jethrow Tull devised a simple seed
drill – he was vilified• A century later a threshing machine was
greeted by riots
Also emerged threats!Also emerged threats!• 1815: a gigantic volcanic eruption at
Tambora in Indonesia led to the famous year “Year without summer”. Many countries frosted in summer. Wheat prices soared, and therefore,
• Thomas Robert Malthus (1798) forecasted a Population Crash, based on the calculation that “it was impossible to improve wheat yields as fast as people made babies”
More land under ploughMore land under plough• Malthusian crash was staved off in the
19th century by bringing more land under plough – in N. America, Argentina and Australia
• But, famines became worse in Asia• Then it was the Tractor (early 1800s)
that averted Malthusian disaster – the first tractor had few advantages but they did not eat hay or oats. It released around 25% more land for crops
More land but less nutrientsMore land but less nutrients• Again, Malthusian limit started
approaching without sufficient nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium
• 1830 – a magic ingredient was discovered: Guano – In dry seabird islands of S. America and S. African coasts, immense deposits of bird droppings, rich in N & P, deposited over centuries
Guano RushGuano Rush• In 1843- a tiny island of Ichaboe (S.W.
Africa) was discovered; covered in 25 feet of Penguin and gannet excrement
• It led to - “Guano Rush” followed by mutinies and battles
• During 1840-1880, guano nitrogen made a vast difference to European agriculture
• But soon the vast deposits were exhausted
Search for more nitratesSearch for more nitrates• In late 19th century, the rich mineral
nitrate deposits of Chile took the place of Guano. These nitrate mines fuelled Chilean economy and fertilized Europe’s farms
• On 2nd July, 1909 - Carl Bosch (BASF) and Fritz Haber combined N (from air) with hydrogen (from coal) to make ammonia
• Then in few years, BASF started mining sky for nitrogen
ConsequencesConsequences• Today, nearly half of the N atoms in the
proteins of an average human beings came at some time or another through an ammonia factory
• Haber – nearly saved the German war effort as it was running out of nitrogen explosives in 1914, cut off from Chilean nitrates, but then went on to make lethal gas for chemical warfare and genocide
More N needed further technologyMore N needed further technology
• Haber’s nitrogen was not welcome till middle of 20th century– Because it was a powder, and– It was lodging the crop
• Then, dwarf varieties rescued the world as it made crops responsive to nitrogen
• More nitrogen = more food
Wheat drove the first major changeWheat drove the first major change
• India got 18000 tonnes of dwarf wheat from CIMMYT, Mexico in 1965
• Sir N.E. Borlaug loaded 35 trucks in Mexico and sent to Los Angeles for transport to India
• And, thus introduced Green Revolution
Norin 10, the donor of the dwarfing gene which saved millions of lives
After 50 years of Green After 50 years of Green Revolution Revolution “w“we need further efforts to feed the world, but
the world is not the same”
Population increasing too much Population increasing too much “more in developing countries”“more in developing countries”
Sources: UN Population Division and Population Reference Bureau
DevelopeDevelopedd
6.2 b
80%+
DevelopiDevelopingng
Most nations are short of moneyMost nations are short of money
β-version of a high spatial resolution database of global income and poverty. Sub-national data compiled from country-level sources. Income was in many cases estimated from poverty incidence, and for countries with no data at all using regression models fitted with data from other countries in the region (see next slides). EU is income after taxes (and looks therefore too poor).
R. Hijmans, IRRI; J. Dixon, CIMMYT
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Rural poor/total poor, 2002
Agr
icul
ture
's c
ontr
ibut
ion
to g
row
th, 1
990-
2005
WDR: Three worlds of agricultureWDR: Three worlds of agriculture
Urbanizing
Agriculture based countries
82% of population in SSA
Agriculture based countries
82% of population in SSA
Transforming countries98% of population in SA
96% of EAP; 92% of MENA
Transforming countries98% of population in SA
96% of EAP; 92% of MENA
Urbanized countries88% of population in ECA;
88% in LAC
Urbanized countries88% of population in ECA;
88% in LAC
World Bank WDR, 2007
Environment is changing
e.g., Africa - Annual Precipitation Variation: 1988-98 (Hodson, CIMMYT)
Variable Nature of Environments
A shift in thinking!A shift in thinking!• No one understands better than farmers
do how the weather change can affect people and their land
• But now, emerging weather patterns have made lot of other people worried, too, and their concerns are well founded(Yvo de Boer, Executive Sect. UN’s Framework
Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC)
Some environmental Some environmental challenges – case study challenges – case study
from Indiafrom India
Heat – a strategic issue for the S AsiaHeat – a strategic issue for the S Asia
Relative yield (+2 ºC / current) for rice growing areas Also an issue for wheat and even maize, in different areas
Change in yield (%)
R. Hijmans, IRRI
Heat stressed areas are increasingHeat stressed areas are increasingFor example: Environment for wheat in IndiaFor example: Environment for wheat in India
Current 2050
Water scarcity
Source: Ministry of Water Resources, Gov. India, 2006
Increasing Water Stress in Punjab
Categorization of Blocks by status of Groundwater Use in Punjab (as on March 2004)
Over Exploited (>100%)
75%
Critical (>90% & <=100%
4%
Semi Critical (>70% & <=100%)
3%
Safe (<= 90%)18%
Note: Figure in parentheses indicate stage of ground water use. A total of 137 blocks were assessed. Source: Planning Commission, 2007
J. Dixon, CIMMYT
• Glaciers cover c.33,000 km2
• Provide c.8.6 X 106 m3 of water / year• 67% Retreating at a rapid rate
Brahmaputra at Singing
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decade
% C
han
ge +0.03 degCyr
+0.06 degCyr
+0.10 degCyr
+0.15 degCyr
Ganges at Allahbad
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Decade%
Cha
nge
+0.03 degCyr
+0.06 degCyr
+0.10 degCyr
+0.15 degCyr
Ganges at Haridwar
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decade
% C
ha
ng
e +0.03 degCyr
+0.06 degCyr
+0.10 degCyr
+0.15 degCyr
Indus at Bisham Qila
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decade
% C
hang
e
+0.03 degCyr
+0.06 degCyr
+0.10 degCyr
+0.15 degCyr
Indus at Skardu
-100
-50
0
50
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decade
% C
ha
ng
e +0.03 degCyr
+0.06 degCyr
+0.10 degCyr
+0.15 degCyr
Deglaciation – Simulated
River Flows (next 10 decades)
Population changes
Source: GPW. CIESIN/CIAT/FAO
Challenges for South Asia
• Over Exploitation of Groundwater• Declining water tables 1-3m / year
• 67% of Glaciers in rapid retreat• Medium-term increased river flows• Threat of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods• Longer-term (40 years+) reduced river flows
• Increasing Wheat Heat Stress• 17-38% Reduction in High Potential Areas by 2020
Increasing Population
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
n.a. – not applicable for Alaska, Northern Canada and Antarctican.a. – not applicable for Alaska, Northern Canada and Antarctica
Source: Cline 2007Source: Cline 2007
Impact on agricultural production with carbon fertilization (%)
THE BIOFUEL BOOM
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Cassava Maize Oil seeds Sugar Wheat
Pri
ce C
han
ge
s (%
)
Biofuel expansion Drastic biofuel expansion
Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios
compared to the baseline levels (%)
Source: IEA and APERC, 2005 Source: IEA and APERC, 2005
Gasoline Demand from Transport (MTOE)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
million
ton
s o
il e
qu
ivale
nt
IndiaBrazil
USA
EU
China
Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries
are slowing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Avera
ge a
nnual g
row
th r
ate
(%
)
maize
rice
wheat
Source: World Development Report 2008Source: World Development Report 2008
SLOWING AGRICULTURAL SLOWING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
Growth yield (% year) is decreasing: Wheat
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
China
India
USA
Russia
n Fed
.
France
Canad
a
Austra
lia
Germ
any
Turkey
Pakis
tan
United K
ingdom
Argen
tina
Iran
Ukrai
ne
Kazak
hstan
Poland
Italy
Egypt
Roman
ia
Spain
Growth yield (%/year) 1966-79 1980-94
Solutions on the way?Solutions on the way?
Saving land through High-Yielding varietiesExample: wheat in India
100
60
40
20
019611965 1970 19751980 19851990 19952000
Million
h
ecta
res
Land Used
Land Saved
80
1961 2000Production, 11 76Million tonnes
Av. Yield. t/ha0.852.90Population,Millions 4521,016
Source: FAOSTAT, 2002
• Higher yield with improved adaptation– Hybrids in different crops: Vegetables, food
crops (maize, sorghum, bajra) and also in self pollinated crops like Rice
– Hybrid rice has sustained cereal production in China and South East Asia
– Eastern Gangetic plains of India is the fastest adopter of hybrid rice in India
– Yield is around 40% higher; days to maturity lesser by around 30 days; required less water; good for enhancing cropping intensity
• Varieties with superior stress tolerance are becoming available– Flooding tolerance in rice (IRRI)
– Water-logging tolerance in pigeon pea (ICRISAT)
– Drought tolerance in rice (IRRI), wheat & maize (CIMMYT), barley (ICARDA), groundnut, sorghum & pearl millet (ICRISAT), beans (CIAT), & cowpea (IITA)
Stay green plants; more heat and Stay green plants; more heat and drought tolerancedrought tolerance
T. durum T. tauschii
ABD
• Synthetic wheat developed by CIMMYT is already highlighted globally
• New hope for stress areas, mainly drought
D
+
AB
Synthetic wheat
Conservation AgricultureConservation Agriculture
Saving environment and money and making agriculture sustainable
Transgenics!Transgenics!
Bt Cotton• 20 million ha around the
world• 6 million ha in India• 50,000 mt reduction in
insecticide use• Less health hazard• Significant increases in
farmer profits
Virus resistanceVirus resistanceSource: Monsanto
Herbicide resistant current: soybean, corn, canola, cotton, alfalfa coming: sugar beet, lettuce, strawberry, wheat,
Turf grass resistance gene from bacteria
papaya, squash, potatoresistance gene from a virus
Molecular tools are being used Molecular tools are being used for employing bio-fortified for employing bio-fortified varieties of cropsvarieties of crops““Bio-fortification”Bio-fortification” means means producing crops that have producing crops that have higher levels of nutrition in their higher levels of nutrition in their edible partsedible parts
Golden rice
Rice grain White rice Golden rice
‘Golden Crops’
Source: Gerard Barry
Source: Torbert Rocheford
Eat fruit, get vaccine• A pathogen protein gene is cloned• Gene is inserted into the DNA of plant (potato, banana, tomato)• Humans eat the plant • The body produces antibodies against pathogen protein• Human are “immunized”• Examples:
DiarrheaHepatitis BMeasles
GM Flower to detect landmines
More than 100 million mines are spread over 45 countries
Land mines detecting flowersLand mines detecting flowers
• Danish Company: Aresa Biodetection
• Thale cress: a weed
• Coded to change colour of flower to red when root comes in contact with Nitrogenous gases evaporating from explosives !
• Flowers with in 3-6 weeks of sowings
Land Mine Detection
Mine detected
Feeding Future PopulationsFeeding Future PopulationsWorld has the technology—either available or well-advanced in the research pipeline—to feed 10 billion people
Extending the Green Revolution
to many more food-insecure people will provide a better diet at lower prices
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