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TRANSCRIPT
Quantitative graphs from:
The Economics of PovertyHistory, Measurement, and Policy
(Oxford University Press 2016)
Martin RavallionDepartment of Economics, Georgetown University
Washington DC., [email protected]
This file gives the quantitative graphs only (as these are hard to reproduce otherwise). The Figures that are used to illustrate concepts in the book are not included here.
If no source is given then it is based on my calculations. References are found in the book.
This is not intended to be a self-contained document. In many cases you will need the text from the book to fully understand the graph.
I have not updated any figures from the book in the light of new data. I do have some updates available, but best to ask me as this changes overtime.
Part 1: History of Thought
Figure 1.1: Past poverty reduction in today’s rich world
0
20
40
60
80
100
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
USUK and IrelandFranceGermany
World (including today'sdeveloping countries)
JapanItaly
Australia-Canada-NZ
Poverty rate (%)
2
Figure 1.2: References to poverty in Google Books, 1700-2000
(a) English
(b) French
Source: Google Books Ngram Viewer.
3
Figure 2, Box 1.16: Empirical Engel curve for food across countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Consumption per capita in 2011 (market exchange rates; log scale)
Food
sha
re fr
om h
ouse
hold
sur
veys
(%)
Source: Ravallion and Chen (2015)
4
Figure 1, Box 1.19: Log poverty rate plotted against log mean consumption across countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4
Log of mean household consumption or income per person
Log
of th
e po
verty
rate
(% b
elow
$1.
25 a
day
)
5
Figure 1, Box 1.21: Distribution of wealth in rural Bihar, India
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Prob
abili
ty o
f a v
alue
gre
ater
than
giv
en o
n x-
axis
Asset index
6
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Frequency histogram for the asset index
Figure 2.1: Global poverty rates 1820-2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Bourguignon-MorrissonChen-Ravallion
Global poverty rate (% below $1 a day)
Sources: Author’s calculations from the data base used by Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002) (kindly provided by the authors) and from Chen and Ravallion (2010a).
Figure 2.2: Official poverty rates for the US
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
100% of the official line125% of the official line150% of the official line
Official poverty rates for the U.S. (% of people below poverty line)
Source: US Census Bureau
8
Figure 1, Box 2.5: Poverty lines across countries of the world in 2005 prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Log private consumption per capita ($PPP per day)
Nat
iona
l pov
erty
line
($P
PP
per
day
per
per
son)
Luxembourg
USA
9
Figure 2.3: Income share held by the richest one percent of American households
0
5
10
15
20
25
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Share excluding capital gainsShare including capital gains
Share of household income in the U.S. held by top 1%
Source: Alvaredo et al. (2014); author’s estimates of a nearest neighbor smoothed scatter plot.
10
Figure 2.4: Share of agriculture in GDP across countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
6 7 8 9 10 11
Gross National Income per capita 2000 ($PPP, log scale)
Shar
e of
agr
icul
tura
l val
ue a
dded
in G
DP
2010
(%)
N.Z.
U.S.
Sierra Leone
Source: Author’s calculations from World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2013).
11
Part 2: Measures and Methods
Figure 1, Box 5.18: Growth incidence curve for China
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percentile of the distibution ranked by income per person
Gro
wth
rate
(% p
er a
nnum
)
12
Figure 1, Box 5.22: The HDI’s implicit weight on life expectancy
.001
.002
.003
.004
.005
.006
.007
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Mar
gina
l effe
ct o
n H
DI o
f one
yea
r gai
n in
life
exp
ecta
ncy
Gross national income ($ per person per year; log scale)
Old HDI
New HDI
Source: Author’s calculations from data in UNDP (2010).
13
Figure 2, Box 5.22: The HDI’s implicit monetary valuation of an extra year of life
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gross national income ($ per person per year; log scale)
Impl
icit
valu
atio
n on
an
extra
yea
r of l
ife ($
per
yea
r)Qatar
Liechtenstein
Zimbabwe
Source: Author’s calculations from data in UNDP (2010).
14
Part 3: Poverty and Policy
Figure 7.1: The parade of incomes across the world
0
20
40
60
80
100
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Mean income in $/day by ventile, 2008
Note: Currency conversions use Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates. Source: Author’s calculations from data in Lakner and Milanovic (2013).
15
Figure 7.2: Bourguignon-Morrisson series for global inequality
1820 1850 1870 1890 1910 1929 1950 1960 1970 1980 19920
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Mea
n lo
g de
viat
ion
0.42
0.83
0.69
0.37
0.36
0.33
0.05
0.33
0.50
Within-country inequality
Between-country inequality
Global inequality
Source: Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002).
16
Figure 1, Box 7.1: Food Engel curves from national accounts versus surveys
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Consumption per person 2011 (market exchange rates; log scale)
2011 ICPHousehold surveys
Food share (%)
Source: Ravallion and Chen (2015).
17
Figure 7.3: Inequality in the developing world
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Inequality in the developing world (MLD)
Total
Betweencountry
Withincountry
18
Figure 7.4: Evolution of average inequality within countries
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Developing world as a wholeEast AsiaEastern Europe and Central AsiaMiddle East and North AfricaSouth Asia
Population-weighted mean log deviation
Latin America and the Caribbean
Sub-Saharan Africa
19
Figure 7.5: Headcount indices for the developing world
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Headcount index (% living below poverty line)
$1.25 a day
$2.00 a day
Note: Poverty lines in 2005 PPP; Source: PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1; accessed October 2014).
20
Figure 7.6: Poverty gap indices for the developing world
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Poverty gap (PG) or squared poverty gap (SPG) indices (x100)
PG for $2 per day
PG for $1.25 per daySPG for $2 per day
SPG for $1.25 a day
Note: Poverty lines in 2005 PPP; Source: PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1; accessed October 2014).
21
Figure 7.7: Cumulative distribution functions up to U.S. poverty line
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Poverty line ($ per person per day at 2005 PPP)
1981199019992008
Headcount index (% below poverty line)
Source: Chen and Ravallion (2013).
22
Figure 7.8: Mean consumptions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Mean consumption ($ per person per day)
Consumption floor
Mean for the poor (below $1.25)
Overall mean
23
Figure 7.9: Numbers and % of the population of the developing world living near the consumption floor
0
10
20
30
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
% (left axis)
Number in millions(right axis)
Living within $0.20 a day of the consumption floor
Source: Ravallion (2014f).
24
Figure 7.10: Differing fortunes for poor people in three regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Headcount index (% below $1.25 a day)
East Asia
South Asia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
East Asia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Source: PovcalNet.
25
Figure 7.11: Distributions for the developing world as a whole in 1990 and 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
20051990
Poverty line (z; $/day; 2005 PPP)
Pov
erty
rat
e (F
(z);
%)
Density (f(z))
Source: Ravallion (2010b)
26
Figure 7.12: Assessing the bulge relative to distribution-neutral growth
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Actual changeSimulated change under distribution-neutral growth
Poverty rate in 2005 minus poverty rate in 1990 (% points)
Poverty line ($/day; 2005 PPP)
Source: Ravallion (2010b)
27
Figure 7.13: Elasticities of the poverty rate to distribution-neutral growth
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Poverty line ( $/day; 2005 PPP)
Actual Simulated under distribution-neutral growth
Elasticity (times -1)
Source: Author’s calculations.
28
Figure 7.14: Densities of middle-class population shares
.000
.004
.008
.012
.016
.020
0 20 40 60 80 100
First survey's $2-$13 population share (%)Second survey's $2-$13 population share (%)
Kernel density
Note: Non-parametric density functions fitted using an Epanechnikov kernel. Source: Ravallion (2010b).Source: Author’s calculations.
29
Figure 7.15: Average relative poverty lines
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Overall mean
High-incomecountries only
Developing countries only
Average relative poverty line ($ per person per day; 2005 PPP)
Source: Author’s calculations from the data compiled by Ravallion (2012b).
30
Figure 7.16: Global poverty rates and the differences between rich and poor countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Truly global poverty rate
Absolute poverty ratefor the developing world
Poverty rate for high-income countries
"Purely relative" poverty ratefor the developing world
Poverty rate (% below the poverty line)
Source: Author’s calculations.
31
Figure 7.17: Shares of global poverty 1990 and 2008
Absolutely poor in the developing world
44%Relatively
poor in the developing world48%
Relatively poor in High-Income Countries
8%
Global poverty in 2008
Absolutely poor in the developing
world73%
Relatively poor in the developing
world22%
Relatively poor in High-Income Countries
5%
Global poverty in 1990
32
Figure 7.18: Poverty rates across regions of the world
Sub-Sa
haran Afric
a
South Asia
East A
sia an
d Pacific
Latin Ameri
ca an
d Caribbean
Middle Eas
t and North
Africa
Easter
n-Euro
pe and Cen
tra Asia
High-In
come Countrie
s0
102030405060
Purely relative poverty (%)Absolute poverty rate (%)
Sub-Sa
haran Afric
a
South Asia
East A
sia an
d Pacific
Latin Ameri
ca an
d Caribbean
Middle Eas
t and North
Africa
Easter
n-Euro
pe and Cen
tra Asia
High-In
come Countrie
s0
102030405060
Purely relative poverty (%)Absolute poverty rate (%)
33
2008
1990
Figure 7.19: Counts of total poverty for 1990 and 2008
High-in
come countrie
s
East A
sia an
d Pacific
Easter
n Europe a
nd Centra
l Asia
Latin Ameri
ca an
d the C
aribbea
n
Middle Eas
t and North
Africa
South Asia
Sub-Sa
haran Afri
ca0
400
800
1200
Total poverty (absolute + relative) in 1990 and 2008
19902008
34
Figure 7.20: Declining numbers of absolutely poor along with rising numbers of relatively poor
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 20080
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Number of poor in millions
35
Relatively poor but not absolutely poor
Absolutely poor, living below $1.25 a day
Figure 7.21: Grade 6 school completion rates for the richest and poorest quintiles across developing countries
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Overall meanPoorest quintileRichest quintile
Pro
porti
on o
f 15-
19 y
ear o
lds
who
hav
e co
mpl
eted
gra
de 6
Proportion of 15-19 year olds who have completed grade 6 Source: Estimates from World Bank site: “Educational Attainment and Enrollment Around the World . ”
36
Figure 7.22: Relative and absolute schooling gaps between the richest and poorest quintiles across developing countries
(a) Relative schooling gaps (b) Absolute schooling gaps
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Ratio of completion rates (top/bottom)
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Absolute difference in school completion rates
Source: Author’s calculations from the data underlying Figure 7.21. Horizontal axis as in Figure
7.21.
37
Figure 7.23: Access to basic services
Water Electricity Sanitation0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
26%
49%
20%
56%
87%
61%
Poor Non-PoorPe
rcen
tage
of p
opul
ation
with
ac
cess
Source: Olinto et at. (2013)
38
Figure 7.24: Relationship between obesity incidence and poverty across states of the U.S.
15
20
25
30
35
40
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Poverty rate for 2010-12 from the U.S. Census Bureau
Obesity rateControlling for mean/median
Obesity incidence in 2012 (% with BMI>30)
r=0.44
r=0.75
District of Columbia
Louisiana
New Hampshire
Source: Author’s calculations from the data sources in text.
39
Figure 7.25: Age profiles for the developing world’s poor compared to the non-poor
Poor Non-Poor0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
34%20%
13%
13%
47%59%
5% 8%
> 60
19-60
13-18
0-12Perc
enta
ge b
y ag
e gr
oup
in y
ears
Source: Olinto et al. (2013).
40
Figure 7.26: Lifetime prevalence of reported sexual violence among women
Africa
South-Ea
st Asia
Easter
n Med
iterra
nean
Americas
High in
come
Western
Pacific
Euro
pe0
5
10
15
20
2530
35
40
45
50 % of women 15 years and older
Source: WHO (2013b).
41
Figure 8.1: Growth and poverty reduction in the developing world
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Absolute povertyRelative poverty
Growth rate in survey mean (% per annum)
Proportionate change in poverty measure (% per annum)
Source: Author’s calculations. Each data point is a region-year combination spanning 1981-2010.
42
Figure 8.2: The concept of inequality matters to assessing whether inequality rises in growing developing economies
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Growth rate of consumption per person from national accounts (% per year)
Relative Gini indexAbsolute Gini index
Change in Gini index (% points per year)
Absolute (r=0.51)
Relative (r=-0.21)
Note: Absolute Gini indices scaled by mean between initial and final years.Source: Author’s calculations on updating the data set used by Ravallion (2003a).
43
Figure 8.3: Headcount indices across countries plotted against urban population shares
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Urban share of the population (%)
Nat
iona
l hea
dcou
nt in
dex
of p
over
ty (%
bel
ow $
2 a
day)
Source: Author’s calculations from the data set of Ravallion et al. (2007). Countries and dates are pooled.
44
Figure 8.4: Global poverty rates 1820-2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Bourguignon-MorrissonChen-Ravallion
Global poverty rate (% below $1 a day)
Sources: Author’s calculations from the data base used by Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002) (provided by the authors) and from Chen and Ravallion (2010a).
45
Figure 1, Box 8.17: Poverty rate in China since 1980
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Poverty rate (% living below $1.25 a day at 2005 PPP)
Source: Author’s calculations from the data set developed by Ravallion and Chen (2013a)
46
Figure 8.5: Poverty rates for the developing world outside China
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Headcount index (% below $1.25 a day, excluding China)
Source: Ravallion (2013).
47
Figure 8.6: Absolute poverty reduction and the distribution-corrected rate of growth
-.4
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
-.10 -.08 -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 .08
Without adjustment for change in inequalityWith adjustment for change in inequality
Distribution-corrected rate of growth in survey mean per annum(ordinary growth rate times 1-initial gini index)
Annualized proportionate rate of poverty reduction ($1.25 a day)
Source: Author’s calculations based on the data and model described in Ravallion (2012d).
48
Figure 9.2: GDP per capita plotted against the WGI “Rule of Law” index
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percentile rank on WGI "Rule of Law" index 2012
Log
GD
P pe
r cap
ita 2
012
(at P
PP)
r=0.85
Source: Author’s calculations from the estimates in Worldwide Governance Indicators and the World Development Indicators.
49
Figure 9.3: Return to sender, address unknown
Low income Lower middle income
Upper middle income
High income0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 Percentage of letters that were returned to the sender within one year by groups of countries ranked by GDP per capita
Source: Chong et al. (2014).
50
Figure 10.1: The share of the poorest 20% receiving help from the social safety net in developing countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000
GDP per capita at PPP for year of survey
Safety net coverage for poorest quintile (%)Safety net coverage for whole population (%)
Poorest quintile
Population
Source: Safety net spending includes social insurance and social assistance, including workfare programs. Social safety net coverage rates for poorest quintile (poorest 20% ranked by household income per person) from the World Bank’s ASPIRE site: http://datatopics.worldbank.org/aspire/indicator_glance. The data are available for 109 countries; the latest available year is used when more than one survey is available. GDP from World Development Indicators.
51