examining durham’s workforce and meeting skills …...0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000...

EXAMINING DURHAM’S WORKFORCE AND

MEETING SKILLS NEEDS

Presented By: Paige Marlow

Director of Research

Durham Workforce Authority

Durham Workforce Authority, Innovative Labour Market Solutions

■ Providing authoritative research

■ Identifying employment trends

■ Targeting workforce opportunities

■ Initiating development projects

■ Bringing people together

Overview

■ Durham Region Demographics & Population Growth

■ State of the Region: Durham Region Workforce

– Unemployment Rates

– Educational Attainment

– Commuting Patterns

– Average & Median Salaries

– Selected Occupation & Industry Data

– Apprenticeships

■ Industry Information

■ Opportunities

Durham Region Demographics

30,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 20,000 30,000

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Female

Male

Source: Statistics Canada, NHS (2011)

Labour Force Survey: 15 and Over (Oshawa CMA)

Labour Force Characteristics October 2016

Population 328,300

Labour Force 231,100

Employment 216,800

Full-Time Employment 177,000

Part-Time Employment 39,700

Unemployment 14,300

Not in Labour Force 97,200

Unemployment Rate 6.2%

CANSIM Table 282-0128, Statistics Canada (2016)

Labour Force Survey: 15 – 24 (Oshawa CMA)

Labour Force Characteristics October 2016

Population 55,300

Labour Force 36,900

Employment 32,000

Full-Time Employment 16,100

Part-Time Employment 15,900

Unemployment 4,900

Not in Labour Force 18,400

Unemployment Rate 13.3%


Unemployment Rate Comparison (15 and over)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Ra

te

Peterborough, Ontario

Oshawa, Ontario

Toronto, Ontario

Hamilton, Ontario

Barrie, Ontario


Unemployment Rate Comparison (15 – 24)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Ra

te

Peterborough, Ontario

Oshawa, Ontario

Toronto, Ontario

Hamilton, Ontario

Barrie, Ontario


-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Not in the Labour Force, Oshawa CMA

Not in the Labour Force


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Total population

aged 15 years and

over by highest

certificate, diploma

or degree

No certificate,

diploma or degree

High school diploma

or equivalent

Apprenticeship or

trades certificate or

diploma

College, CEGEP or

other non-university

certificate or diploma

University certificate

or diploma below

bachelor level

Bachelor's degree University certificate,

diploma or degree

above bachelor level

Educational Attainment, Durham Region 2001 – 2011 (Actual)

2001 2006 2011


0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

No certificate, diploma

or degree

High school diploma or

equivalent

Apprenticeship or

trades certificate or

diploma

College, CEGEP or other

non-university

certificate or diploma

University certificate or

diploma below bachelor

level

Bachelor's degree University certificate,

diploma or degree

above bachelor level

Educational Attainment, Durham Region 2001 – 2011 (Percentage)

2001 2006 2011


Commuting Patterns (Durham Residents)Place of Residence Place of Work Number of Individuals

Durham Durham 141,810

Durham Toronto 78,392

Durham Markham 12,270

Durham Mississauga 3,830

Durham Vaughan 2,895

Durham Richmond Hill 2,465

Durham Whitchurch-Stouffville 1,530

Durham Brampton 1,415

Durham Newmarket 1,330

Durham Peterborough 1,190

Durham Aurora 900

Durham Kawartha Lakes 735

Durham Cobourg 495

Durham Port Hope 390


Commuting Patterns (Jobs in Durham) Place of Residence Place of Work Number of Individuals

Oshawa Durham 43,740

Whitby Durham 29,325

Clarington Durham 27,395

Ajax Durham 18,275

Pickering Durham 12,205

Toronto Durham 9,755

Scugog Durham 6,110

Kawartha Lakes Durham 4,255

Uxbridge Durham 3,275

Brock Durham 2,290

Markham Durham 1,875

Port Hope Durham 1,100

Hamilton Durham 830

Peterborough Durham 790


Commuting Patterns By Occupations National Occupation Classification (NOC) Durham

Region –

Durham

Region

Durham

Region –

Peel

Durham

Region –

Peterborough

Durham

Region –

Toronto

Durham

Region –

York

Total - Occupation (NOC) 2011 56.7% 2.1% 0.5% 31.2% 8.8%

0 Management occupations 45.7% 3.8% 0.5% 37.7% 11.8%

1 Business, finance and administration occupations 44.5% 1.6% 0.1% 43.0% 10.5%

2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 38.6% 4.4% 0.9% 41.6% 13.9%

3 Health occupations 62.5% 0.6% 0.5% 29.4% 6.0%

4 Occupations in education, law and social, community

and government services60.2% 0.9% 0.6% 32.2% 5.5%

5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 53.6% 1.0% 0.0% 38.0% 7.5%

6 Sales and service occupations 73.4% 1.4% 0.2% 18.3% 6.2%

7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and

related occupations53.8% 3.3% 0.4% 30.8% 11.1%

8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production

occupations78.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 9.0%

9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 66.4% 3.1% 0.2% 21.6% 8.2%


Average & Median Salaries

All Industries (NAICS) 221 – Utilities237 – Heavy and Civil

Engineering Construction

Median

Salary

Average

Salary

Median

Salary

Average

Salary

Median

Salary

Average

Salary

Canada $37,462 44,476 $77,678 $84,673 $52,226 $66,635

Ontario $39,918 $50,376 $82,274 $87,743 $53,237 $72,436

Durham $36,957 $47,411 $103,327 $105,047 $45,131 $59,472

Clarington $37,943 $50,284 $106,268 $108,199 $43,496 $46,079


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

111-112 - Farms 221 - Utilities 237 - Heavy and civilengineering construction

333 - MachineryManufacturing

541 - Professional, scientificand technical services

813 - Religious, grant-making,civic, and professional and

similar organizations

912 - Provincial and territorialpublic administration

913 - Local, municipal andregional public administration

Workforce Age Breakdown - Sustainable Energy, Selected Industries(3-Digit NAICS)Place of Work

15 - 24 years 25 - 44 years 45 - 64 years 65+ years


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1122 - Professionaloccupations in

business managementconsulting

2131 - Civil engineers 2171 - Informationsystems analysts and

consultant

2231 - Civilengineering

technologists andtechnicians

2232 - Mechanicalengineering

technologists andtechnicians

2253 - Draftingtechnologists and

technicians

4168 - Programofficers unique to

government

6221 - Technical salesspecialists - wholesale

trade

7244 - Electrical powerline and cable workers

9241 - Powerengineers and power

systems operators

Workforce Age Breakdown - Sustainable Energy, Selected Occupations(4-Digit NOC)Place of Work

15 - 24 years 25 - 44 years 45 - 64 years 65+ years


221 - Utilities 237 - Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 541 - Professional, scientific and technical services

7 - Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 11% 54% 2%

6 - Sales and service support 6% 5% 5%

2 - Natural and applied science and related occupations 27% 11% 27%

1 -Business, finance and administration occupations 12% 11% 32%

0 - Management occupations 12% 15% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Distribution of Occupational Categories, Sustainable Energy Sub-Sector,

Durham Region


Durham Under 30 Survey (2012 – 2015) Essential Skill 2013 2014 2015

Scan written materials for information and/or overall meaning 59.60% 74.00% 74.92%

Read materials to understand, learn, critique or evaluate 67.70% 72.50% 71.83%

Analyze and synthesize information from multiple sources for or from complex and

lengthy text41.70% 56.60% 60.06%

Read signs, labels or lists 80.80% 83.80% 84.98%

Understand information on graphs or charts 61.40% 72.10% 76.78%

Enter information in forms 46.30% 68.10% 67.80%

Create or read schematic drawings 30.00% 45.00% 50.62%

Make calculations 74.00% 75.30% 77.86%

Take measurements 47.60% 74.00% 75.85%

Perform scheduling, budgeting or accounting activities 41.50% 52.60% 51.70%

Analyze data 49.70% 59.60% 63.47%

Make estimations 60.30% 71.60% 68.58%

Write to organize or record information 72.50% 77.10% 76.32%

Write to inform or persuade 49.40% 67.70% 66.87%

Write to request information or justify a request 49.40% 32.80% 22.60%

Write an analysis or comparison 46.30% 62.00% 63.31%

Use different forms of technology such as cash registers or fax machines 48.80% 57.40% 60.84%

Use word processing software 65.90% 81.70% 83.44%

Send and receive emails 73.20% 83.80% 83.90%

Create and modify spreadsheets 33.40% 46.90% 53.41%

Navigate the Internet 73.10% 80.60% 82.35%

Source: Durham Workforce Authority

MAESD Apprenticeship Data (September 2012)

Active ApprenticesActive Apprentices

Average AgeActive CofQ Holders

Active CofQ Holders Average Age

All Trades Total 134,263 30 427,727 55

Automotive Sector 22,668 31 105,323 51

Construction Sector 41,071 32 163,925 58

Industrial Sector 20,641 28 110,263 56

Service Sector 49,883 27 48,216 53

Compulsory Trade 51,770 - 196,320 -

Voluntary Trade 82,493 - 231,407 -

CofQ Trade 96,545 - 427,727 -

CofA Trade 37,718 - - -

Red Seal Trade 90,955 - 394,891 -

Non-Red Seal Trade 43,308 - 32,836 -

MAESD Apprenticeship Data (2nd Quarter 2012 – 2013)

New RegistrationsCofQs Issued to

Apprentices CofQs Issued To

ChallengersCofAs Issued to

Apprentices

All Trades Total 14,958 3,682 2,001 5,574

Automotive Sector 2,689 811 313 836

Construction Sector 3,542 1,701 1,091 1,713

Industrial Sector 2,235 426 344 898

Service Sector 6,492 744 253 2,127

Compulsory Trade 5,835 2,498 973 2,724

Voluntary Trade 9,123 1,184 1,028 2,850

CofQ Trade 9,812 3,682 2,001 3,842

CofA Trade 5,146 - - 1,732

Red Seal Trade 9,204 3,521 1,393 3,686

Non-Red Seal Trade 5,754 161 608 1,888

Apprenticeship Registrations –Durham Region

New Registrants Certificates of Apprenticeships Issued

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Durham

Region1,010 1,139 1,101 961 696 581 434 301

Apprenticeship Registrations –Durham Region

Average Age of Apprentices at Registration

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Durham Region 27 27 26 26

Major Projects

Highlights

Recent cycles: 2011–2014

■ A major down cycle ended in 1996 and growth was steady to 2009.

■ By 2000, the Ontario construction workforce was fully employed.

■ Employment peaked in 2007–2008 and unemployment was at or near historically low levels.

■ Recovery from 2009 was strong, as employment peaked again in 2010–2011.

■ Ontario relied on recruiting from out of the province to fill expansion (economic) and

replacement (demographic) demands.

Highlights

2015

■ This was a year of modest employment gains.

■ Activity increased in residential and commercial work and engineering projects.

■ Unemployment remained well below historical levels.

■ Construction employment and labour force growth was close to overall provincial gains.

2016 to 2025

■ The 2016 scenario begins with a moderate up cycle:

– Both new housing and industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) activity rise.

– New heavy industrial and mining projects are proposed to start

in the North.

– Record high employment is reached in 2018‒2019.

Construction unemployment rates, OntarioPercent (%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Residential Non-residential

Forecast

Source: BuildForce Canada

Replacement demand

New entrants

Expansion demand

Net in-mobility

74,000

76,000

78,000

80,000

82,000

84,000

86,000

88,000

90,000

92,000

Demand Supply

Demand

requirements 90,100


The Available Workforce, Ontario(34 direct trades and occupations)

2016–2025 workforce

demand requirements

(90,100)

Construction labour requirements, Greater Toronto Area(34 direct trades and occupations tracked by BuildForce)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Em

plo

ymen

t

Residential employment Non-residential employment Total employment

Forecast


The available residential workforce, Greater Toronto Area(34 direct trades and occupations)

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Nu

mb

er o

f w

ork

ers

Retirements New entrants Net in-mobility Change in labour forceSource: BuildForce Canada

Total change in labour force =

New entrants + Net in-mobility - RetirementsForecast

The available non-residential workforce, Greater Toronto Area(34 direct trades and occupations)

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Nu

mb

er o

f w

ork

ers

Retirements New entrants Net in-mobility Change in labour forceSource: BuildForce Canada

Total change in labour force =

New entrants + Net in-mobility - RetirementsForecast

Mobility and Labour Supply

Mobility across regions – non-residential

■ The strongest demand for recruiting outside local markets in 2017

and 2018 is in:

– Greater Toronto Area

– Southern Ontario

– Northern Ontario

■ Recruiting is focused in engineering and industrial trades.

– Requirements may exceed the total Ontario supply.

– In-mobility* shifts to:

■ interprovincial employment

■ permanent immigration

* In-mobility refers to the arrival of workers from outside the local construction industry.


Mobility across regions – non-residential

■ The strongest growth and recruiting are driven by proposed major projects, with recruiting in:

– Greater Toronto Area (2017)

– Southwest (project planning spreads across 2016‒2018)

– Northern Ontario (2017)

■ Key trades include:

– boilermakers

– concrete finishers

– ironworkers


Mobility across regions – residential

■ The strongest growth and recruiting outside regions is spread across 2016, 2017 and 2018 in:

– Greater Toronto Area (2017)

– Southern Ontario (2016)

– Northern Ontario (2016)

■ Key trades include:

– electricians

– elevator constructors and mechanics (high-rise buildings)

– glaziers (high-rise buildings)

– ironworkers (high-rise buildings)

– trades helpers and labourers

Supply Implications and Mobility

■ Province wide there is little year-to-year variability in construction employment.

– Even at the residential and non-residential market levels, employment changes by more than 3 or 4

percent in only one year (2017).

– Growth across the 10-year scenario is just 1.6 percent.

– Cycles are more of an issue in the Greater Toronto Area, Southwest and North as housing peaks and

engineering projects ramp up from 2016 to 2018.

– Limited growth in the Ontario labour force requires construction employers to hire from outside the

local market.

Supply Implications and Mobility

■ Construction employers face some familiar challenges:

– competition in other provinces

– rising retirements

– rising skill requirements as new technologies are applied

■ Challenges will be greatest over the 2016‒2018 period, but much depends on the timing of projects (e.g., pipelines, utility refurbishments, mining ventures)

■ Workforce mobility will help to limit market extremes.

■ The potential for mobility spans:

– regions

– markets

– provinces

– industries

Residential construction investment, Greater Toronto Area$2007 millions*

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

New housing Renovations Maintenance (right axis)

Forecast


* $2007 millions indicates that the investment values are in year 2007 dollars (base year), that is, adjusted for inflation. This

is used to calculate the real physical year-to-year change of the value of construction, factoring out growth (increase value)

due to increases in prices.

Non-residential construction investment, Greater Toronto Area$2007 millions*

* $2007 millions indicates that the investment values are in year 2007 dollars (base year), that is, adjusted for inflation. This

is used to calculate the real physical year-to-year change of the value of construction, factoring out growth (increase value)

due to increases in prices.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

ICI (industrial, commercial, institutional) building Engineering Maintenance (right axis)

Forecast


Labour Market Rankings

Residential labour market rankings, Greater Toronto Area

Note: The rankings for some trades and occupations are suppressed due to the small size of the workforce (<100 workers)

and limited statistical reliability when assessing labour market conditions. Trades may also be excluded because they

typically do not work in the sector being assessed (e.g., home building and renovation managers in non-residential

construction).

Trades and occupations ‒ residential 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Bricklayers 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Carpenters 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3

Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction estimators 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3

Construction managers 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2

Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Crane operators 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2

Electricians 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2

Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3

Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3

Glaziers 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3

Home building and renovation managers 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Residential labour market rankings, Greater Toronto Area




construction).

Trades and occupations ‒ residential 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Insulators 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3

Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2

Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3

Plumbers 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2

Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2

Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Sheet metal workers 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3

Tilesetters 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2

Trades helpers and labourers 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2

Truck drivers 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Welders and related machine operators 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2

Non-residential labour market rankings, Greater Toronto Area




construction).

Trades and occupations ‒ non-residential 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Boilermakers 3 3 4 4 3 3 5 3 3 3 3

Bricklayers 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Carpenters 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Concrete finishers 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2

Construction estimators 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction managers 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 2 4 3 3 4 4 2 4 2 3

Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Electrical power line and cable workers 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3

Electricians 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Non-residential labour market rankings, Greater Toronto Area




construction).

Trades and occupations ‒ non-residential 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Insulators 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2

Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Plumbers 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Roofers and shinglers 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Sheet metal workers 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2

Trades helpers and labourers 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Truck drivers 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Welders and related machine operators 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Occupations in Demand

Conference Board of Canada

Ontario Power Generation - Darlington

Regular Non-RegularCasual

ConstructionContract Grand Total

2003 2,215 85 142 70 2,512

2007 2,417 138 35 19 2,609

2010 2,447 111 47 10 2,615

2015 2,370 456 103 119 3,086

2016 2,787 387 230 228 3,664

Ontario Power Generation – Pickering

Regular Non-RegularCasual

ConstructionContract Grand Total

2003 4,455 341 405 490 5,691

2007 5,201 326 84 181 5,792

2010 5,348 192 41 46 5,627

2015 4,348 417 50 127 4,952

2016 2,787 387 230 228 3,664

Count of OPG Employees by Age Range for all Worksites as of October 31, 2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0 - 20 20 - 25 25 - 30 30 - 35 35 - 40 40 - 45 45 - 50 50 - 55 55 - 60 60 and

Over

Opportunities

■ Talent Attraction & Retention

– Educational Institutions ■ Secondary Schools

■ Post-Secondary Schools

– University of Ontario Institute of Technology

– Trent University Durham

– Durham College

– Centennial College

– Employment Ontario

– Migration

– Immigration

■ Local Labour Market Intelligence

– Local Employment Planning Council

– Skills for Tomorrow

The Durham Workforce Authority is grateful for

the continuing support of

examining durham’s workforce and meeting skills …...0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000...

Documents