excess mercury in latin america and the caribbean, 2010-2050* latin america and caribbean mercury...

Excess Mercury in Latin America and the Caribbean,

2010-2050*

Latin America and Caribbean Mercury Storage Inception Workshop

Organised by UNEP Chemicals, BCCR, LATU and the Zero Mercury Working Group

Montevideo, Uruguay – 22-23 April 2009

Peter Maxson

Concorde East/West Sprl - Brussels

*Based on the report, Excess Mercury Supply in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010-2050, UNEP, April 2009

P. Maxson - Concorde East/West Sprl - Brussels - [email protected] - 22 April 2009

Slide 2

ObjectivesObjectives

Estimate future mercury supply and demand in Latin America and the Caribbean

Show how the “natural” balance between mercury supply and demand evolves

Establish a “baseline situation” to see the effects of mercury supply reduction/storage decisions


Slide 3


Slide 4

Key sources of dataKey sources of data “Mexican Mercury Market Report,” Commission for Environmental Cooperation,

2008. “National Program for the Integral Management of Mercury in Chile,” 2007, and

“Pilot Project on Strengthening Inventory Development etc.,” 2008, Comision Nacional del Medio Ambiente, Government of Chile.

“Pilot Project on Strengthening Inventory Development etc.,” Ministerio del Ambiente, Government of Ecuador, 2008.

“National Emissions Inventory of Mercury in Panama (Summary),” Panama National Environmental Authority, Department of Environmental Quality Protection, 2009.

“Report on the major mercury‑containing products and processes, their substitutes and experience in switching to mercury-free products and processes,” Lowell Center for Sustainable Production, 2008.

“Summary of supply, trade and demand information on mercury,” UNEP, 2006. “The challenge of meeting mercury demand without mercury mining: An

assessment requested by the Ad Hoc Open-Ended Working Group on Mercury,” UNEP, 2008.

“Mercury-Containing Products Partnership Area Business Plan,” UNEP, 2008.


Slide 5

LA&C mercury sources, 2005LA&C mercury sources, 2005

“Source”Mercury

“produced” (tonnes)

Mercury mining and/or processing of mine tailings

~30

Decommissioned chlor-alkali facilities

unknown

By-product mercury - zinc 0

By-product mercury - gold ~150

Recycled Hg from products 3% of 140-215


Slide 6

LA&C mercury supply, 2010-2050LA&C mercury supply, 2010-2050

“Source” Evolution 2010-2050

Mercury mining and/or processing of mine tailings

30-40 tonnes/yr., decreasing as regional demand decreases

Decommissioned chlor-alkali facilities

1,480 tonnes of Hg from decommissioned Hg cells becomes available during 2010-2025

By-product mercury - zinc

80 tonnes/yr. by 2015 and 120 tonnes/yr. by 2020

By-product mercury - gold

150 tonnes increasing to 200 tonnes/yr. by 2015

Recycled Hg from products

10% of consumption by 2020, and 25% by 2040


Slide 7

LA&C mercury supply, 2010-2050LA&C mercury supply, 2010-2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mer

curi

o (t

onel

adas

)

By-product mercury (zinc and gold ores)

Chlor-alkali

Other sources, esp. mercury mine tailings and recycling


Slide 8

LA&C mercury consumption, 2005LA&C mercury consumption, 2005

South AmericaC. America

& CaribbeanLA&C total

min. max. min. max. min. max.

Small-scale gold mining 150 300 15 30 165 330

Chlor-alkali production 20 40 5 15 25 55

Batteries 10 15 5 10 15 25

Dental applications 40 50 20 25 60 75

Measuring and control 20 25 10 15 30 40

Lamps 5 10 5 10 10 20

Electrical and electronic 5 10 5 10 10 20

Other* 10 20 5 15 15 35

Total 260 470 70 130 330 600

* “Other” applications include uses of mercury in pesticides, fungicides, catalysts, paints, chemical intermediates, laboratory and clinical applications, research and testing equipment, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, traditional medicine, cultural and ritual uses, etc.


Slide 9LA&C mercury consumption, 2010-2050LA&C mercury consumption, 2010-2050Processes Assumptions regarding future consumption*

Small-scale gold mining

Reduce mercury consumption in small-scale gold mining globally by 50% over the next 10 years, with a subsequent decline after that of 5% per year.

Chlor-alkali production

Assume no new mercury cell facilities will be constructed. Assume mercury cell capacity will be gradually phased out between 2010 and 2022.

Products Assumptions regarding future consumption*

Batteries Assume a 75% decrease in mercury consumption by 2015, and the remaining demand phased out gradually thereafter until 2025.

Dental applications

Assume a 15% reduction by 2015, and a gradual reduction thereafter to 50% of present consumption by 2050.

Measuring and control devices

Assume a 60% reduction of mercury consumption by 2015, the phase-out of mercury fever thermometer and blood pressure cuff manufacturing by 2017, and the phase-out of remaining demand by 2025.

Lamps Assume 20% reduction by 2015 and gradual reduction of 80% overall by 2050.

Electrical and electronic

Assume gradual 55% reduction of mercury consumption by 2015, and a gradual reduction thereafter to 2050.

Other applications

Assume a gradual 25% reduction of mercury consumption by 2020, and another 50% by 2050.

* For future projections, see the UNEP Partnership Business Plans.


Slide 10

LA&C mercury consumption, 2010-2050LA&C mercury consumption, 2010-2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Mer

curi

o (t

onel

adas

)

Products and other applications

ASGM

Chlor-alkali


Slide 11

Key assumptions for “Base Case” ScenarioKey assumptions for “Base Case” Scenario

Consider LA&C as a single closed region Consider only regional sources and uses of

mercury No exports from or imports to the region Mexico continues to produce a modest amount of

mercury from small mines and tailings Gradual increase in mercury recovered as a by-

product from regional gold and other mining operations

Gradually increasing recovery of mercury by major non-ferrous metal smelters.


Slide 12

““Base Case” Scenario (mercury supply minus demand)Base Case” Scenario (mercury supply minus demand)

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mer

curi

o (

ton

elad

as)


Slide 13

Observations about the “Base Case” ScenarioObservations about the “Base Case” Scenario

LA&C regional supply-demand equilibrium about 2013

Accumulated excess of >8,000 tonnes of mercury from 2013-2050

However,… is it reasonable to assume that by-product mercury from industrial gold mining will stay in the region?


Slide 14

Assumptions for “Minimum Storage” ScenarioAssumptions for “Minimum Storage” Scenario

Same basic assumptions as for “Base Case” Scenario, except:

– 150 t/yr by-product mercury from gold mining is exported (to the U.S.) or stored (in LA&C or in U.S.)

– Less mercury is recovered from zinc smelting than previously assumed


Slide 15

““Minimum storage” Scenario (mercury supply minus demand)Minimum storage” Scenario (mercury supply minus demand)

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Mer

curi

o (t

on

elad

as)

Exported/sequestered by-product mercury from large gold mines

Excess mercury


Slide 16

Observations about theObservations about the“Minimum Storage” Scenario“Minimum Storage” Scenario

LA&C regional supply-demand equilibrium is reached at about 2019

Accumulated excess of ~2,000 tonnes of mercury from 2019-2050 (plus >5,000 tonnes by-product of industrial gold mining?)


Slide 17

Reflections - 1Reflections - 1

What happens when mercury is stored?

Users think about product or process alternatives

Suppliers think about diverse sources

Mercury price increases

Everyone thinks about ways to use less


Slide 18


Two main ways to influence mercury supply/demand:

1. “Demand management” = Take measures to reduce uses of mercury, for example through product legislation, and assume the mercury supply will decrease because demand decreased

2. “Supply management” = Reduce the supply of mercury, for example by storage, in order to influence mercury price and availability, thereby encouraging reduced demand


Slide 19


Is there a preference for managing mercury supply compared to managing demand?

Both approaches can work in parallel for many sectors

Some sectors may be more responsive to “supply management,” particularly:

– if the activity may not be legal,– if it is difficult to enforce legislation, or– if the activity is highly decentralized

(small-scale gold mining)


Slide 20

CommentsComments

Please send all comments (up to 15 May) to:UNEP Mercury Programme –

[email protected] P. Maxson –

at [email protected]

excess mercury in latin america and the caribbean, 2010-2050* latin america and caribbean mercury...

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