exciting new areas for rules paul vincent, tibco...
TRANSCRIPT
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Exciting New Areas for Rules
Paul Vincent, TIBCO Software
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Paul Vincent, TIBCO Software
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Rules vs “The Semantic Web”
Declarative Behaviors
Models Languages
Logic
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Production Rules
Queries etc
Event Rules
Inference Rules
Processes etc
Decisions
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Current Practices
Declarative Behaviors
Models Languages
Logic
Data
Ontologies
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Production Rules
Queries etc
Event Rules
Inference Rules
Processes etc
DecisionsActivity/”Process”
StateEvent Rules
Production /
Reaction Rules
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Interesting Area #1
Declarative Behaviors
Models Languages
Logic
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Production Rules
Queries etc
Event Rules
Inference Rules
Processes etc
Decisions
Complex Event
Processing
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CEP-driven Business Processes
eventsEvent Transport
& Distribution
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Pattern
Detection
Event & State store
Decisions Reactions
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Complex Event Processing
Roles:
Sense and Respond
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.6
Sense and Respond
Track and Trace
Situational Awareness
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Generalised Role for Event Processing
complex events
Asynchronous
Events
Continuous &
parallel event
pattern detection
simple events
Declarative
processing
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
BPM:
business
process
SOA:
IT
services
CEP: complex
event
processing
State store
Multiple event types
/ channels
Orchestrated /
procedural processing
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Event Sources
eventsPublish-subscribe /
queue-based:
JMS
-TIBCO EMS -
event
channels
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Others
TCP-IP
SOAP over
HTTP
RVPattern
Detection
Event & State store
-TIBCO EMS -
IBM MQ etc
Decisions Reactions
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Event Pattern Detection and
Processing
eventsEvent Transport
& Distribution
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Pattern
Detection
Event & State store
Decisions Reactions
State
Transitions
Continuous
Queries
Pattern RegEx
Event Rules
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Event Pattern State Management, FT,
DR
eventsEvent Transport
& Distribution
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Pattern
Detection
In-memory
Decisions Reactions
Distributed Cache
DBMS
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Decisions and Rules against Event
Patterns
eventsEvent Transport
& DistributionManaged
Decision
Models
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Pattern
Detection
Event & State store
Decisions Reactions
Event Rules
Inference Rules
Models
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Decisions and Rules against Event
Patterns
eventsEvent Transport
& Distribution
Services
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Pattern
Detection
Event & State store
Decisions Reactions
Fact Updates
New Events
Processes
Services
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© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Operational Intelligence
in Retail Banking
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The Retail Challenge
Small Windows of Opportunity for Selling SuccessfullyP
rop
en
sity
to
Bu
y
Highest Chance to Sell
SuccessfullyThe Longer The Delay in
Selling, The Lesser the
Chance to Sell Successfully
The Challenges
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Time Between Desire to Buy and Sales Call
Pro
pe
nsi
ty t
o B
uy
Propensity to Buy
The ChallengesTo Identify the Right Product(s) to Sell at the
Right Moment to the Right Customer(s)
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Po
ten
tia
l fo
r In
tell
ige
nt
Co
nve
rsa
tio
n
Aggregated
Product Holdings, &
BalancesChanges in holdings,
Balance triggers,
Bureau data
Customer
Provided Data Renewal dates,
Financial priorities,
other holdingsProduct
Holdings &
Balances:Open & closed,
last x balancesProduct Usage
& events
Futu
re F
ocu
s
Non-core personal
Recognition of Customer Contact/Transaction Events as Important Assets to Effective Campaign
Execution and Management
Touchpoint
EventsATM/ AVR Transactions,
Web usage
Need: Event-Driven Marketing Rules
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Po
ten
tia
l fo
r In
tell
ige
nt
Co
nve
rsa
tio
n
Part of Application
Ongoing usage
Aggregation
Customer Data capture
Contact data:Title, forenames, surname, premise #,
address, postcode,DoB, e.mail address,
Preferred name, Correspondence address,
Telephone # (home, work, mobile), GPP
markers (for e.mail,
telephone and post).
Core personalGender, marital status,
# dependants,
employment status,
occupational status,
residential status
Tax number
& eventsTransactions,
Transaction types,
time since last
Contact histories:Contact events,
Credit Events,
campaign codes Hyg
ien
e
Customer
Satisfaction Levels and issues
*Data we capture as part of our daily business
Breadth of Customer Understanding
Non-core personal
details needs to be
managed by either
the individual
customer contact or
back end admin
systems/ processes.
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Selling + Offering the Right Products + Services
at the Right Time with Real-Time Response
Credit Card Purchase of Airline Ticket
at 1230pm Today via Agent/Airlines
Up sell Travel Insurance via Call Centre at 1pm Same
Day
Example Real-time Rules
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Change of Home Address at Call Centre Up sell New Home Insurance/Personal Loans at Call
Centre at the Same Time
IPO Subscription of Certain Amount Up sell to Turn the Unallocated Amt to Fix Deposit if,
Say, More than > S$200K
Event-driven, declarative, business rules approach
used in conjunction with customer knowledge
and driving Business Processes
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#Campaign and Offers pa 500 Campaigns + 4 M Offers
#Target Customers >4M
Transaction Volume >240 Msgs/Sec
Revenue Growth Campaign Performance
1. Campaign 1: 235% Over Campaign Revenue Target
Real Rule ROI
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
235% Over Campaign Revenue Target
2. Campaign 2:160% Over Campaign Revenue Target
3. Campaign 3270% Over on Additional Spending Target
4. Campaign 4250% Over Campaign Revenue Target
Time to Market per Marketing Campaign
Concept to Execution:
Before: 3 – 6 Months
After: 7 – 8 Days
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Process Awareness in Shipping
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
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Situation Awareness of Business Assets
Shipment container track and trace:
Monitoring shipment milestones and invoking
appropriate processes
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
54 million active milestones for
shipments in-situ at any one time
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Original Business Solution
1. Custom J2EE application
Project Metric
Analysts + Developers 8
Elapsed Time 8 months
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Elapsed Time 8 months
Implementation 100 milestones
Productivity 64 person mths per 100
milestones
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De facto Business Solution = BPM +
SOA2. BPM + SOA
Project Metric
Analysts + Developers 3
+ unknown # vendor
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
+ unknown # vendor
consultants
Elapsed Time 3 months
Implementation 3 milestones
Productivity 400 person mths per 100
milestones
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Current Solution = CEP
3. Event-driven rules
Project Metric
Analysts + Developers 3 + 1 vendor consultant
Elapsed Time 7 months
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Elapsed Time 7 months
Implementation 100 milestones
Productivity 28 person mths per 100
milestones
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Comparison of Approaches
Approach Cost Cost vs Java
Java 64 1x
BPM for events 400 6x
Event-driven rules 28 overall 0.5x
Event-driven rules 12 best case 0.2x
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Event-driven, declarative, business rules approach
used in conjunction with, driving,
Business Processes
Event-driven rules 12 best case 0.2x
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Shipping milestones covered
100+
Number of shipments in process
8K
Average shipment lifecycle / containers per shipment
100 Days
2 containers per shipment
Real Rule ROI
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
shipment2 containers per shipment
Average milestones achieved per container / events processed
64 milestones
60 business events per sec
Solution results 1 - Business agility: can now add new milestones without IT in less time
2 – Business IT agility: declarative model makes updates easier
3 – Solution is high performance and scales to business
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© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
RFID-BASED MANUFACTURING
EFFICIENCY
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Manufacturing is Labor Intense
100% testing?
Test results data vs Error
lifecycle
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
testing?
Manual, expensive
tests
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Not all process steps are necessary…
• Reliability depends on known event-
based conditions
• Monitoring these events can give good
information on the likelihood of a need
for a test
• Example: after a restart production
station A is
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
station A is
75% reliable for first 4 uses
100% reliable for the next 11 days
80% reliable thereafter
Event-driven, declarative, business rules approach
used in conjunction with production process
analytics and knowledge
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Manufacturing tasks carried out per day
24K
Number of process steps Several 100s
Deployment Today: France2010-2011: Worldwide rollout
Solution results 30% reduction in manual test costs
Real Rule ROI
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Solution results 30% reduction in manual test costs
“Significant reduction” in overall manufacturing costs
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Event
Future trends in business processing
Decision Action
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Adaptive Case Management
BPMS
BRMS
Events
Services
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Example: Complex Fulfillment
TIBCO Active Fulfillment TIBCO Active Catalog
Fulfillment events
+ exception events
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
BPM Platform: workflow processes
CEP Platform: rules, states, goals
plan-based provisioning MDM / Content
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Interesting Area #2
Declarative Behaviors
Models Languages
Logic
Web-based /
Cloud-based
Knowledge
Modelling
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Production Rules
Queries etc
Event Rules
Inference Rules
Processes etc
Decisions
Modelling
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Interesting Area #3
Declarative Behaviors
Models Languages
Logic
Machine Learning of
Classifications and
Ontologies
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Production Rules
Queries etc
Event Rules
Inference Rules
Processes etc
Decisions
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Lots of Potential Synergies!
Declarative Behaviors
Models Languages
Logic
Machine Learning of
Classifications and
Ontologies
Web-based /
Cloud-based
Knowledge
Modelling
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
Production Rules
Queries etc
Event Rules
Inference Rules
Processes etc
Decisions
Complex Event
Processing
Modelling
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Future for Semantic Web?
• Distributed knowledge and information
being commercialised as Data Grids, Compute
Grids, Cloud Computing
• Universal models and rules, standardisation
© Copyright 2000-2010 TIBCO Software Inc.
• Universal models and rules, standardisation
being commercialised as event pattern
languages (EMP?), production rules
(DMN/PRR/RIF), processes (BPMN), etc
• Next generation research IT being used (RDF,
OWL, SPARQL etc) in complex use cases