executive south america summary...south america at 2030 variant 1 is focused on a scenario of higher...

ExecutiveSummary

Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES)deployment in South America and role of interconnectionlines for their optimal exploitation

So

uth

Am

erica

This research series was conducted by Enel Foundation with the technical support of CESI, a world-leading consulting and engineering company in the field of technology and innovation for the electric power sector.

Concept design and realizationGrafica Internazionale Roma s.r.l. Number of pages27 Publication not for sale Edited ByFondazione Centro Studi Enel00198 Rome, Viale Regina Margherita 137Tax I.D. 97693340586

Published in May 2020.

Foundation

https://cesi.it/

https://www.enelfoundation.org/

Table of contents

List of acronyms 5

Executive summary 6

1 General objective of this study 6

2 The study process 6

3 Computational tools 8

4 Main assumptions 9

5 Results 12

5.1 Base Case 125.1.1 Enhanced VRES installed capacity 165.1.2 Sensitivities on dry and wet hydrological conditions 205.2 High demand variant 215.3 Low demand variant 24

6 Conclusions 28

7 References 32

5

Chile-Argentina | January 2019

List of acronyms

BESS Battery Energy Storage SystemEENS Expected Energy Not Supplied EPE Empresa de Pesquisa EnergéticaNTC Net Transfer CapacityPV PhotoVoltaicRES Renewable Energy SourceVRES Variable Renewable Energy Source

6

Executive Summary

1 General objective of this study

South America is endowed with outstanding renewable energy resources. The location of new power plants exploiting RES is constrained by the geographical availability of the resources (wind, sun, geothermal, biomasses, hydro). Hence, the integration of a large quantity of RES into the power system shall be careful-ly examined in advance to avoid operating conditions calling for RES generation curtailment for security reasons (e.g.: overloads due to insufficient power transfer capability from the areas with highest potential or impossibility to balance the system due to the inflexibility of the conventional generation). Limitations to the development of RES generation, particularly the variable generation such as PV and wind, can be overcome, among others, by exploiting the existing interregional or crossborder interconnections, reinforcing the existing ones and building new crossborder corridors.

This study on “VRES deployment and role of interconnection lines for their effi-cient exploitation” aims at examining the optimal technical and economic penetra-tion of Variable Renewable Energy Source (VRES, namely photovoltaic and wind) generation in selected countries, accounting for the possible cross border power exchanges. The analysis focuses on Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Uruguay and the optimal operation of their power systems at 2030.The research aims at answering the following main questions:

❚ What is the optimal penetration of VRES generation within the countries and within the system considering the technical constraints in operation while min-imising the production costs?

❚ To what extent reinforcing the transmission grid can help enhance the deploy-ment of VRES generation within a country and between interconnected coun-tries?

2 The study process

The study evaluates the optimal amount of PV and wind plants in the analysed countries in three main different configurations of the power systems character-ized by different assumptions on the demand and the available technologies in the generation fleet:

❚ The Base Case represents the expected situation in terms of demand growth and generation expansion based on the development plans available for each country. In this configuration, two different optimisations have been carried out, modifying the assumptions on the costs of new VRES plants: in addition to the optimal VRES capacity in the reference Base Case, it is assessed also an enhanced VRES installed capacity applying a stronger reduction of the invest-ments required for the new installed capacity.

7

South America at 2030

❚ Variant 1 is focused on a scenario of higher electric demand due to the combi-nation of stronger economic growth, population increase and higher electricity penetration. A significant presence of emobility in the biggest cities is also considered.

❚ Variant 2 is focused on a scenario of lower electric demand, with a higher overgeneration risk. The benefits related to more flexibility of the generation fleet (lower minimum production constraints of existing plants or presence of electrical storage systems) are assessed.

Detailed information on the assumptions can be found in [1][2][3].For each of these three system configurations, a “Reference Scenario” is iden-tified, which includes the expected amount of generation per source based on the examined expansion plans of the different countries at the target year 2030. The “Reference Scenario” represent the basis of the optimization process which defines, through an iterative calculation, the optimal technoeconomic VRES gen-eration deployment in each case. This amount maximizes the benefits for the system calculated in terms of fuel savings and reduction of the Expected Energy not Supplied (EENS1) minus the costs (investments for the new plants and in-crease of EENS, if any). The optimization process takes into account the potential of VRES across the territory, their costs and performances.

Exploitation of generation resources and VRES can be affected by system con-straints (such as minimum amount of production due to the characteristics of the thermal and hydro generation fleet and reserve to be ensured) and limits of the power transfer capacity of the transmission grid. A development of VRES technologies and the possible coupling with battery energy storage systems (BESS) have been assumed, so that in 2030 they will be able to provide the system with auxiliary services, like frequency regulation, hence reducing the need for additional upward and downward reserve, and voltage regulation. In this context, it is possible to increase the penetration of VRES while keeping adequate security of supply.

The optimization process has been applied first to the isolated countries, iden-tifying optimal national VRES targets independent from the energy exchanges with neighbouring ones, and then to clusters of countries. The results of these analyses can be found in [4][5][6]. Finally, the optimization has been carried out on the whole system (called “Continental case”), taking into account the outcomes of the previous investigations. The detailed results of the Continental case are presented in [7] and summarized here.

1 EENS represents the load that cannot be supplied during the year due to system con-straints such as Lack of Power (not enough available generation in the system), Lack of Intercon-nection (when a higher interconnection with other areas might provide the missing power), Line Overload (when it is necessary to cut some load to resolve line overloads that cannot be resolved only with a different dispatching of generators).

8

Executive Summary

3 Computational tools

The optimisation process is based on the assessment of the expected opera-tion of the system in 2030, the relevant costs, the system adequacy and the risk of overgeneration in presence of an increasing share of VRES. In order to obtain these results, it was adopted the GRARE2 software, which evaluates the reliability and the economic operation of large electric power systems using probabilistic Monte Carlo approach and modelling in detail the transmission net-works. It simulates the optimal operation of the system in thousands different configurations (considering load variations, forecast errors, availability of gen-eration fleet and transmission networks, VRES power production), weighted by their probability to happen. The results depict the expected operation of the whole system providing the benefits in terms of variation of generation costs and different generation adequacy, measured by means of EENS indicator. The comparison with the costs of the additional VRES capacity drives the optimiza-tion until the optimal condition is found, where the benefits generated by the new plants are equal to the relevant costs.

Moreover, the simulations provide the expected production of VRES plants in each country, considering potential curtailments due to system or transmission constraints. The calculation of VRES plants producibility based on geographical information combined with the usage of a detailed transmission system model allow to clearly identify the best areas where PV and wind plants should be deployed in order to maximize the benefits for the system.

2 More info on GRARE (Grid Reliability and Adequacy Risk Evaluator) tool is available on www.cesi.it/grare.

https://www.cesi.it/

http://www.cesi.it/grare

9


4 Main assumptions

Figure 1 provides a graphical representation of the main data concerning the de-mand and installed capacity per technology in each analysed country and in the whole system in the Base Case. This data has been defined based on generation expansion plans and demand forecasts of each country, as reported in [1][2][3].Availability of hydro resource has been defined to represent average hydrological conditions. Sensitivities on dry and wet years have also been investigated.For the analysis of the two Variants the demand of each country has been increased or lowered according to the scenarios available in the national devel-opment plans.

Table 1 summarises the main economic and financial parameters (discount rate, CAPEX, OPEX) assumed at 2030, which affect the cost of the energy produced by PV and wind power plants.

Table 1 - Main assumptions on costs of PV and wind power plants at 2030

COUNTRY ARG BRA CHI COL ECU PER URU

Discount rate 10% 8% 7.5% 8% 10% 8% 8%

CAPEX PV [kUSD/MW] 860 740 670 670 860 600 860

O&M cost PV [kUSD/MW] 11.5 11.5 11.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 11.5

CAPEX wind [kUSD/MW] 1,180 1,180 1,145 1,145 1,180 1,140 1,180

O&M cost wind [kUSD/MW] 48 48 52 23.8 23.8 23.8 48

Thermal 9,700Hydro 5,800Wind 400PV 300Others 0Nuclear 0

Peru (85.0 TWh)

Hydro 6,700Thermal 3,800Others 200PV 100Wind 100Nuclear 0

Ecuador (49.4 TWh)

10.9GW

Hydro 14,500Thermal 5,900Wind 1,200PV 1,000Others 300Nuclear 0

Colombia (100.8 TWh)

23GW

16.2GW

Chile (108.6 TWh)

28.7GW

Thermal 13,100Hydro 7,000PV 4,100Wind 3,900Others 600Nuclear 0

Thermal 27,600Hydro 13,700PV 5,000Wind 4,950Nuclear 2,500Others 100

Argentina (229.9 TWh)

53.8GW

Hydro 113,000Thermal 41,600Wind 28,500Others 18,200PV 9,600Nuclear 3,400

Brazil (874.8 TWh)

214.3GW

Hydro 162,200Thermal 90,700Wind 40,600PV 20,430Others 19,700Nuclear 5,900

TOTAL (1463.2 TWh)

351.7GW

Wind 1,550Hydro 1,500Thermal 1,200Others 300PV 230Nuclear 0

Uruguay (14.7 TWh)

4.8GW

10 11

Executive Summary South America at 2030

Figure 1 - Summary of main data assumptions

12

Executive Summary

5 Results

5.1 Base CaseThe optimal amount of VRES installed capacity at the target year (2030) in the Base Case reaches almost 50 GW for PV and more than 71 GW for wind. Com-pared to the targets and forecasts presented in the national generation and trans-mission development plans (at the basis of the reference scenario from which the investigation has started), the new optimal values correspond to an increase by 150% of PV installed capacity and by 75% of wind power plants.The relevant production exceeds 105 TWh for PV and 265 TWh for wind, covering together about 25% of the total demand (see also Figure 6). Associated to the new plants also about 9 GW of battery storage systems are introduced, which ensure a smoother and more flexible dispatching of VRES generation reducing forecasts errors in real time operation and enabling peak shifting. In this config-uration, the risk of VRES generation curtailments is limited to about 3% of the potential production.

The benefits generated by the additional plants sum up to about USD 3.6 billion at the target year, considering the fuel savings and the annuity of the investments needed for the additional VRES capacity.The presence of the calculated optimal amount of VRES plants and the exploita-tion of the interconnections reduces the emission of about 85 Mt of CO2 in the atmosphere per year with respect to the Reference Scenario. The economic ben-efits deriving from this strong reduction in terms of negative externalities and further possible savings have not been made explicit and taken into account and would push for an even higher penetration of VRES plants.The interconnections contribute to the optimal operation of the system allowing the usage of cheapest generation resources and limiting the risk of RES produc-tion curtailments. The comparison of the optimal scenario with the one in which countries are not allowed to exchange energy among them shows that, if coun-tries operate as isolated:

❚ risk of VRES curtailments increases to about 6% for PV and 4% for wind,❚ the thermal generators are required to produce 4.5 TWh more,❚ fuel costs increase by about USD 680 million due to usage of more expensive

thermal plants (equal to about 4% of the total expenses for production based on fossil fuels),

❚ additional 2 Mt CO2 emissions are released each year in the atmosphere.

13


These savings due to the interconnections have to be considered as the max-imum value achievable at the target year with a full integration of the different electricity markets and coordination of the operation. In order to obtain these maximum benefits, regulations and market rules should promote as much as possible the joint operation of the different power systems, enabling the usage of the cheapest resources and exploiting the greater flexibility available in a more interconnected system.

Figure 2 provides a graphical representation of the energy flows between the countries and of the utilization of the generation fleet in each of them. Moreo-ver, the value of the risk of RES generation curtailments is reported, specifying the reason.

Natural Gas 45%Hydro 40%Solar 8%Wind 8%Coal 1%

Peru

Hydro 78%Wind 9%Solar 6%Natural Gas 5%Coal 1%Others 1%

Ecuador

Electrical energy demand and generation fleet at 2030 – BASE CASE OPTIMAL

48,227GWh

Hydro 67%Wind 12%Coal 11%Natural Gas 5%Solar 4%Others 1%

Colombia

100,613GWh

83,713GWh 1,943

25

3,04851

2,237542

304

Chile

121,076GWh

Coal 26%Solar 23%Hydro 19%Natural Gas 19%Wind 11%Others 2%

Natural gas 36%Wind 28%Hydro 17%Solar 11%Nuclear 7%Coal 1%

Argentina

236,318GWh

Hydro 60%Wind 15%Natural Gas 9%Others 8%Solar 4%Coal 2%Nuclear 2%

Brazil

1,024,416GWh

Wind 49%Hydro 24%Others 15%Natural gas 9%Solar 3%

Uruguay

11,630GWh

6,894321

9,861274

2,069260

975

Energy flux [GWh]

Congestion Hours

[GWh]

1,331409

331

3,619234

1,36659

1,587234

2,074168

Hydro 51%Wind 16%Natural Gas 15%Solar 6%Others 5%Coal 4%Nuclear 3%

TOTAL

1,634,513GWh

Curtailed renewableProduction [GWh]

Line overload 2,644Power surplus 10,490

14,00012,00010,000

16,000

8,0006,0004,0002,000

0TOTAL

Upward 4,719Downward -2,912

6,0004,0002,000

0-2,000-4,000

TOTAL

Redispatching due to lineoverload [GWh]

4,261

4,260

Salto Grande Hydro Power Plant (SGD)

2,29810

1,496

0

0

14 15


Figure 2 - Total production and energy exchanges at 2030 – Base Case with interconnected countries

16

Executive Summary

Thanks to the interconnections, which increase the evacuation capacity, the coun-tries with the highest availability of cheap energy become exporters: in particu-lar Chile (+ 2.1 TWh), Colombia (+1.9 TWh) and Uruguay (+1.3 TWh) can export the highest amount of energy. For the other countries it is convenient to import electricity: Brazil (3.4 TWh), Argentina (1.1 TWh) and Ecuador (0.7 TWh) become net importers. Peru shows an almost net balance between imports and exports also because the cost of generation from natural gas is kept low for the internal demand thanks to subsidies.

The interconnection capacity investigated in the study, based on the existing lines and the suggested future projects, ensures adequate NTCs between countries: the limit of the transmission capacity is reached more frequently on weak inter-connections (between Colombia and Ecuador and from North of Chile to North of Argentina), nonetheless this condition takes place less than 5-6% of the time.

5.1.1 Enhanced VRES installed capacityA sensitivity analysis has been carried out investigating how the optimal VRES installed capacity is enhanced in case of VRES costs reduction, in particular for PV, which experienced the strongest decrease over the last decades. In this con-dition, VRES become even more competitive than before, able to replace cheaper thermal generation and can also accept higher risk of curtailments due to the lower economic impact.

The new VRES optimal capacity increases especially for PV technology in the ar-eas with highest resource, lower system and transmission constraints and more expensive thermal generation to be replaced. The results show that, in case of reduced VRES costs:

❚ it is optimal to insert in the system 11.7 GW of additional PV plants and 1.8 GW of wind, which produce respectively 20 TWh and 5.9 TWh, bringing the overall demand coverage by VRES up to 28%,

❚ the additional plants suffer an increased risk of curtailments (about 20% of their possible production cannot be injected in the grid for system or network constraints), but it is still convenient to install them due to the reduced costs,

❚ this VRES generation further decreases the CO2 emissions by more than 12 Mt per year, totalling a reduction of almost 100 Mt with respect to the case in which the installed capacity will be limited to the targets set by the countries in their currently available generation plans,

A graphical representation of the energy exchanges and of the generation mix in the countries according to this sensitivity analysis is provided in Figure 3.

17


1,93028

3,799237

2,288596

268

1,922144

1,052


14,00012,00010,000

16,00018,00020,000

8,0006,0004,0002,000

0TOTAL

Upward 5,654Downward -3,000

6,0004,0002,000

0-2,000-4,000

TOTAL

Hydro 78%Wind 9%Solar 6%Natural Gas 5%Coal 1%Others 1%

47,916GWh

Hydro 40%Natural Gas 38%Solar 11%Wind 10%Coal 1%

85,013GWh

Hydro 67%Wind 13%Coal 10%Natural Gas 5%Solar 4%Others 1%

100,701GWh

119,746GWh

Solar 25%Coal 25%Hydro 19%Natural Gas 18%Wind 11%Others 2%

Peru

Ecuador

Electrical energy demand and generation fleet at 2030 – ENHANCED VRES CAPACITY

Colombia

Chile Argentina

BrazilUruguay

Energy flux [GWh]

Congestion Hours

[GWh]

TOTAL


0

0

Natural gas 33%Wind 29%Hydro 17%Solar 13%Nuclear 7%Coal 1%

236,012GWh


11,587GWh

Hydro 60%Wind 15%Natural Gas 8%Others 8%Solar 5%Coal 2%Nuclear 2%

1,025,399GWh



Hydro 50%Wind 16%Natural Gas 14%Solar 8%Others 5%Coal 4%Nuclear 3%

1,634,844GWh

1,253438

391

3,157155

1,52872

1,673239

2,011166

7,155290

8,926137

4,235

4,234

2,3136

1,447

18 19


Figure 3 - Total production and energy exchanges at 2030 – Base Case with enhanced VRES installed capacity

20

Executive Summary

5.1.2 Sensitivities on dry and wet hydrological conditionsMoreover, the operation of the interconnected power system with the optimal amount of VRES installed capacity estimated assuming average hydrological con-ditions has been simulated also in case of dry or wet years through a sensitivity analysis, in order to assess possible adequacy issues in case of lack of hydro resource and the risk of increased VRES curtailments in case of abundance. This information is necessary for a proper planning of the generation expansion and the evaluation of the convenience of high penetration of VRES plants. Hydro avail-ability has been lowered or increased based on the historical data, in order to simulate conditions representing approximately the 15th and the 85th percentile.

❚ In the dry scenario, EENS increases considerably, in particular in the Brazilian areas not interconnected with other countries, highlighting the need here for some additional power plants or solutions able to compensate the missing hy-dro production with respect to the Base Case. Due to the long distances, the effective reinforcement of the transmission system up to areas with available resources would be a very expensive solution. Even if they are not economi-cally optimal in the average hydrological year, more flexible generators or even pumped storage plants, further storage systems, additional hydropower capac-ity in selected locations (already proposed in the Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2026 by EPE [8]) should be included in the optimal configuration of the Base Case, as they represent the most effective solution to ensure a prop-er security of supply in the areas affected by lack of hydro resource. VRES suffer less curtailments, increasing their production by 6.2 TWh, while thermal generators are required to produce about 100 TWh more, increasing the related costs by nearly 50%. CO2 emissions become also 30% higher.

❚ In the wet scenario, on the contrary, the abundance of hydro eliminates the EENS due to lack of resources, and only the one due to small local congestions remains. The risk of curtailments of renewable generation increase by 13 TWh (reaching in total about 6% of the potential production), and at the same time more than 65 TWh produced by thermal plants can be avoided, replaced by the additional hydro. Countries with high presence of hydropower plants, such as Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador, increase their export towards the others, with a consequent higher use of the interconnections.

21


5.2 High demand variantIn the first Variant, representing an accelerated decarbonization path in a strong economic development, the electric demand in the countries has been increased also considering a deeper penetration of evehicles, and the coal power plants have been tentatively switched off and replaced by VRES plants. Where necessary, some thermal power plants fuelled with natural gas and emitting less CO2 are introduced to ensure the minimum levels of security of supply. In this scenario:❚ PV and wind optimal installed capacity resulted respectively 50% and 34% higher

than in the Base Case, reaching 75 GW and 95.5 GW. Furthermore, storage asso-ciated to these new plants reaches 16 GW to ease the integration of VRES plants.

❚ VRES production covers more than 30% of the total demand. The remaining part of the load increase is covered by natural gas and oil, as hydro availability and its absolute production remain unchanged.

❚ Some EENS appears in Brazil, where additional dispatchable generators are needed to compensate the high variability of the huge amount of VRES (al-most 100 GW). Similarly to the results obtained in the dry sensitivity of the Base Case, solutions for the coverage of the peak load already proposed in the existing generation expansion plan should be taken into account. In the optimal configuration of Variant 1 2,700 MW of flexible thermal gen-erators have been introduced to maintain a an acceptable adequacy level3. Higher capacity might be included to reach better adequacy levels. In Chile it is necessary to introduce gas fuelled power plants replacing part of the coal plants switched off to ensure adequacy, as the system would suffer excessive lack of dispatchable resources.

❚ The stronger penetration of VRES plants increases the risk of production curtail-ments, especially in the countries characterized by the presence of big hydro-power plants with limited dispatchability (run-of-river) and high installed VRES capacity. The optimal economic amount is reached with a risk of curtailments around 7% of the potential VRES production.

Also in this condition, interconnections play a significant role improving the security of supply, limiting the risk of VRES curtailments (which would be more than 10 TWh higher without the possibility to export excess of generation), optimizing the usage of the generation fleet and reducing CO2 emissions by about 5 Mt per year.

Figure 4 shows energy flows between the countries and the percentage of gen-eration per technology in each country and in the whole system. It is possible to observe the increase of the optimal VRES installed capacity and, consequently, also of the risk of curtailments due to overgeneration conditions in the syste.

3 In this case, it is accepted an EENS equal to 104 p.u. of the total demand, while in the other scenario the EENS threshold is set at 105 p.u.


15,000

25,000

35,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

5,000

0TOTAL

Upward 5.822Downward -3.591

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

-1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000

TOTAL

Peru

Ecuador

Electrical energy demand and generation fleet at 2030 – HIGH DEMAND

Colombia

Chile Argentina

BrazilUruguay

Energy flux [GWh]

Congestion Hours

[GWh]

TOTAL


0

0



Hydro 73%Wind 9%Natural Gas 8%Solar 5%Oil 4%Others 1%

51,366GWh

Hydro 65%Wind 15%Natural Gas 10%Solar 7%Oil 2%Others 1%

104,662GWh

Natural Gas 41%Hydro 35%Solar 12%Wind 11%

96,633GWh

130,333GWh

Natural Gas 45%Solar 22%Hydro 18%Wind 10%Coal 3%Others 2%

Natural gas 37%Wind 29%Hydro 16%Solar 11%Nuclear 7%

250,752GWh


13,271GWh

Hydro 55%Wind 20%Natural Gas 9%Others 7%Solar 6%Nuclear 3%

1,113,215GWh

Hydro 47%Wind 20%Natural Gas 17%Solar 9%Others 5%Nuclear 2%

1,768,704GWh2,814

28

2,53843

1,797390

80417

65016

3,281599

86616

5778

2,99884

1,56919

1,893251

1,55624

9,381322

6,6459

4,236

4,235

3,0678

1,001

22 23


Figure 4 - Total production and energy exchanges at 2030 – High demand variant

24

Executive Summary

5.3 Low demand variantIn the second Variant, an enhanced energy efficiency scenario has been set up, simulating a reduction in the electricity demand also according to the different targets available at national level. Thermal and hydro generation fleet has been assumed substantially aligned with the one of the Base Case, as well as the avail-ability of energy from hydro resource. Under these assumptions:

❚ Optimal PV installed capacity is estimated at 29 GW while wind capacity reach-es almost 48 GW, corresponding to a general increase by 25%, if compared to what was planned by the countries. Also in a condition with lower demand there is room for additional VRES in the areas with the highest potential, even if limited by the lower load that needs to be supplied and by the competition against cheaper thermal generators.

❚ Total production by PV and wind plants is equal to almost 64 TWh and 177 TWh (covering about 19% of the demand). Risk of curtailments affects only a low percentage of the potential production.

❚ Interconnections contribute to the optimal economic operation of the system as, among others, they allow the exploitation of the cheapest resources, avoid-ing 5.5 TWh of VRES curtailments. Thermal production decreases by about 5 TWh (fuel savings higher than USD 1 billion), reducing CO2 emissions by 2.8 Mt per year.

If in a low demand scenario not all the generation capacity planned at 2030 is developed because not technically necessary or economically viable, more VRES plants become part of the solution, and, thanks to their low costs, flexibility, and short installation time, increase their penetration.

Figure 5 provides a graphical summary of the operation of the system in this low demand variant. Due to lower demand and generally less loaded network, the risk of VRES curtailments due to network constraints is strongly reduced compared to the other simulated scenario.

25


Upward 1,425Downward -754

1,5001,000

5000

-500-1,000

TOTAL

Line overload 156Power surplus 11,354

14,00012,00010,000

16,000

8,0006,0004,0002,000

0TOTAL

Peru

Ecuador

Electrical energy demand and generation fleet at 2030 – LOW DEMAND

Colombia

Chile Argentina

BrazilUruguay

Energy flux [GWh]

Congestion Hours

[GWh]

TOTAL


0

0



Hydro 93%Natural gas 3%Wind 1%Solar 1%Oil 1%Others 1%

40,286GWh

Hydro 74%Coal 11%Wind 8%Natural Gas 4%Solar 2%Others 1%

91,697GWh

Hydro 48%Natural Gas 34%Wind 9%Solar 8%Coal 1%

71,005GWh

103,945GWh

Coal 29%Hydro 22%Solar 21%Natural Gas 14%Wind 12%Others 2%

Natural gas 41%Hydro 22%Wind 19%Nuclear 9%Solar 8%Coal 1%

192,321GWh


10,948GWh

Hydro 66%Wind 12%Others 8%Natural Gas 7%Nuclear 3%Solar 2%Coal 2%

928,470GWh

Hydro 57%Natural Gas 13%Wind 12%Others 6%Solar 5%Coal 4%Nuclear 3%

1,447,209GWh1,089

2

2,71945

2,9752,523

41

4382,031354

1,441626

36149

4,655579

1,11751

9,4871,005

8,087266

2,072680

1,682234

4,271

4,264

3,196103

1,0141

26 27


Figure 5 - Total production and energy exchanges at 2030 – Low demand variant

28 29


6 CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the study has shown a great potential for VRES deployment in the analysed South American countries, thanks to the excellent availability of natural resources, the demand growth and the expected decrease of VRES costs. Table 2 provides the summary of the optimal PV and wind installed capacities in the countries resulting from the performed analysis.

Table 2 - Summary of optimal VRES capacity in different analysed scenario at 2030 [MW]

COUNTRY GENERATION EXPANSION PLANS

BASE CASEOPTIMAL

ENHANCED VRESCAPACITY

HIGH DEMAND LOW DEMAND

PV Wind PV Wind PV Wind PV Wind PV Wind

ARGENTINA 5,000 4,950 10,600 15,870 13,600 16,370 12,100 17,400 6,520 8,950

BRAZIL 9,600 28,500 20,500 41,600 26,500 42,100 36,500 61,600 9,600 28,500

CHILE 4,100 3,900 11,300 5,270 12,300 5,270 12,400 5,500 8,600 4,900

COLOMBIA 1,100 1,200 2,400 2,700 2,600 2,900 4,900 3,700 1,300 1,700

ECUADOR 100 100 1,750 2,050 1,750 2,050 1,750 2,050 200 200

PERU 300 400 2,750 1,700 4,250 2,200 5,250 2,700 2,500 1,500

URUGUAY 230 1,550 230 2,050 230 2,150 230 2,500 230 2,050

TOTAL 20,430 40,600 49,530 71,240 61,230 73,040 73,130 95,500 28,950 47,800

Figure 6 shows the net demand coverage by VRES plants achieved thanks to their optimal penetration in the different scenarios, compared to the results reached with a generation expansion according to the most recent national development plans. The percentage of demand supplied by VRES is provided for each country and for the whole system. In Chile and Peru, which have the best solar irradiation, PV covers a share aligned to or higher than wind, while in the other countries and in the whole system wind resource is more exploited. Countries with highest hydro generation (such as Colombia, Ecuador and partially Brazil) in general show lower optimal penetration of VRES.

Together with the hydropower resource (which covers from 50% to 60% of total demand depending on the case), the optimal VRES capacity would allow to supply more than 75% of the system load with renewable energy.Existing and suggested interconnection capacities allow the best exploitation of VRES plants thanks to the possibility to export excess of generation and the mu-tual support between countries.

Regulations should promote the integration of VRES plants at national and inter-national level enabling higher flexibility and coordination in the operation of the different power systems to ensure that economic and technical benefits can be fully achieved.

Net demand coverage by VRES in different optimization scenarios

GENERATION EXPANSION PLANS

45%40%

50%

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

WindPV

BRAARG COLCHI PERECU TOT

TOT

URU

BASE CASE OPTIMAL

45%40%

50%

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

BRAARG COLCHI PERECU URU

HIGH DEMAND

BRAARG COLCHI PERECU TOT

TOT

URU

LOW DEMAND

BRAARG COLCHI PERECU URU

ENHANCED VRES CAPACITY

45%40%

50%

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

BRAARG COLCHI PERECU TOTURU

45%40%

50%

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

45%40%

50%

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

30 31


Figure 6 - Net demand coverage by VRES in different optimization scenarios at 2030 – Continental case

32

Executive Summary

7 References

[1] CESI, B7012438 Inception Report – Data Collection and Scenario for Chile-Argentina case study.

[2] CESI, B8009716 Inception Report – Data Collection and Scenario for Argentina-Brazil-Uruguay case study.

[3] CESI, B9007163 Inception Report – Data Collection and Scenario for Colombia-Ecuador-Peru case study.

[4] CESI, B8000343 Economic and technical analyses to evaluate optimal economic amount of additional Variable Renewable Energy Sources generation in Argentina and Chile at 2030.

[5] CESI, B8016111 Economic and technical analyses to evaluate optimal economic amount of additional Variable Renewable Energy Sources generation in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay at 2030.

[6] CESI, B9018217 Economic and technical analyses to evaluate optimal economic amount of additional Variable Renewable Energy Sources generation in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru at 2030.

[7] CESI, C0002250, Optimal economic amount of additional Variable Renewable Energy Sources generation in South America at 2030

[8] Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2026.

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