existing safety technology is the driverless vehicle … safety technology –is the driverless...
TRANSCRIPT
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Existing safety technology – is the driverless vehicle already here?
Matthew Avery – Safety Research Director
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Automotive Safety
Primary vs Secondary Safety
Increasing crash probability
Primary Safety Secondary
Safety
Tertiary Safety
Pre-crash Crash Post crash
Systems to prevent
and mitigate
accidents
Protective safety
systems to mitigate
consequences
Rescue systems and
services
Time
Primary safety: Prevention is better than cure
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Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
ADAS
• ESC is an established life saver
• Other ADAS systems show potential
• ESC saves lives; an ESC equipped vehicle is 25% less likely to be involved in a serious or fatal crash in the UK
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Autonomous Emergency Braking
AEB
• Forward looking sensors (RADAR, LIDAR, Camera)
• System detects an imminent collision
• Some systems issue driver warnings (acoustic, visual, haptic)
• Automatic application of the brakes if driver is unresponsive or distracted
Car-to-Car Rear (CCR) Car-to-Pedestrian (CP)
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AEB Real World Effectiveness
Report available at: www.Thatcham.org/AEB
-4%
-9%
-18%
-33%
-18%-16%
-32%
-14%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
USA: Mercedes
with vs without
USA: Volvo with vs without
UK: Volvo XC60 vs
competitors
USA: Volvo XC60 vs
competitors
USA: Volvo S60 vs
competitors
USA: Mercedes
with vs without
USA: Volvo with vswithout
USA: Honda with vs without
FCW City Safety FCW with autobrake
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UK AEB KSI Reduction Potential
Combined Incentives = Insurance Reductions + Euro NCAP
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Euro NCAP and Insurance AEB Test Scenarios
INTE
R-
UR
BA
NIN
TER
-U
RB
AN
INTE
R-
UR
BA
N
Car-to-Car Rear (CCR) Car-to-Pedestrian CP
CITY (Group Rating)Lead Vehicle Stopped<50km/h
CP1
Unobscured nearside
walking pedestrian
Lead Vehicle Stopped30-80km/h
CP2
Obscured walking
nearside pedestrian
Slower Lead VehicleTarget 20km/hTest 30-80km/h
CP3
Unobscured farside
pedestrian
Lead Vehicle Decelerating50km/h
INT
ER
-
UR
BA
N
INT
ER
-
UR
BA
N
INT
ER
-
UR
BA
N
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City AEB Test – Group Rating and EuroNCAP
Stationary Low Speed
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Inter-Urban AEB: Euro NCAP
Moving
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Inter-Urban AEB: Euro NCAP
Braking
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Euro NCAP Rating Strategy
Safety Boxes: 2014 Euro NCAP Assessment Areas
Adult Occupant Protection
Front: Offset Deformable Barrier
Side: Mobile Deformable Barrier
Pole
Whiplash Front Seat
Whiplash Rear Seat
AEB City
Child Occupant Protection
Dynamic Assessment
Child Restraint System Assessment
Vehicle Assessment
Pedestrian Protection
Head Form
Upper Leg Form
Lower Leg Form
AEB VRU – Pedestrian – 2016
AEB VRU – Cyclist - 2018
Safety Assist
Seat Belt Reminder
Speed Assist System
Electronic Stability Control
LDW/LKA
AEB Inter Urban
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UK AEB Fitment – and Insurance Incentives
Points % reduction
2 12
3 13
4 14
5 15
6 16
7 17
8 18
9 19
10 20
11 21
12 22
13 23
14 24
UK and German insurers offer AEB Discounts – up to 5 Groups
Damageability
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VM’s “Selling” AEB
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Euro NCAP Rating Strategy
Rating Examples
Total Score 88% 83% 69% 79% 82%
80% 75% 60% 65% 75%
70% 60% 50% 55% 65%
50% 30% 40% 30% 50%
30% 25% 20% 20% 40%
20% 15% 10% 10% 30%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total Score 83% 78% 60% 48% 73%
80% 75% 60% 65% 75%
70% 60% 50% 55% 65%
50% 30% 40% 30% 50%
30% 25% 20% 20% 40%
20% 15% 105 10% 30%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nissan Qashqai1.5dCi Acenta, LHD
Renault Megane1.5dCi 'Life', LHD
The Safety Assist score limits the overall rating
Overall weighted score
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Euro NCAP Rating Strategy
2014 Rating Distribution
Citroen Berlingo 56% 74% 63% 48%
Citroen C-Elysee 71% 75% 54% 33%
MG3 69% 71% 59% 38%
Nissan e-NV200 Evalia 75% 80% 60% 38%
Peugeot 301 71% 75% 54% 33%
Peugeot Partner 56% 74% 63% 48%
Renault Megane 83% 78% 60% 48%
Citroen C1 80% 80% 62% 56%
Ford Torneo Connect 84% 84% 74% 56%
Hyundai i10 79% 80% 71% 56%
Peugeot 108 80% 80% 62% 56%
Renault Twingo 78% 81% 68% 56%
Toyota Aygo 80% 80% 62% 56%
Mercedes-Benz C-Class 92% 84% 77% 70%
Mercedes-Benz GLA-Class 96% 88% 67% 70%
Nissan Qashqai 88% 83% 69% 79%
VW Golf Sportsvan 87% 85% 62% 73%
Typically the overall rating is limited by the low score in the Safety Assist box, due to the non-fitment of ADAS. Only 5 Star vehicles have ADAS fitted.
3 Star limiting scores 3 Star limiting scores
4 Star limiting scores
4 Star limiting scores
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PedestrianTest Scenarios - 2016P
EDES
TRIA
N
Far side Near side
Adult Adult Child
8km/h 5km/h 5km/h
50% (central) 25% & 75% 50% (central)
VU
T
20-60km/h 20-60km/h 20-60km/h
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Pedestrian Testing 2016
Cyclist AEB - 2018
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Front CameraFront LIDARFront RadarSide/Front 180° CameraSide RadarRear Camera/Ultrasonic
££££££££££££
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
front side rear sensor cost performance
VM Solutions – Current or Near Future Sensor Fit and VFM
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Parking Incidents
• In the UK, 23% of claims related to parking incidents
• 71% of parking incidents occurred during reversing
23%
22%
17%
12%
4%3%2% 18%
Reversing &ParkingCar to car rear
Single vehicle
Junction
Head on
Lane change 75%
16%
9% Reversing
Movingforward
Parking Crashes – 23% of all claims = £1.7 bn
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EuroNCAP >2020 Roadmap
end2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2016
Far side occupant protection for driver and front passenger Updated AEB CCR – Offsets and New Barrier AEB for pedestrians and pedal cyclists in
daylight, darknessLane Keeping Run Off Road Test ProcedureJunction Protection Safety critical HMI guidelines
Mobile test solution to offset front protection
Rear seat occupancy & CRS detectionWhiplash Test RevisionUpdate to Speed Assistance Systems6 and 10 year old child in frontal and side Lane Keep Assist
Assessment
Introduction of new protocols until 2020
ADAS Technologies
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• LDW/LKA systems widespread in the market
• Crash reduction unclear
• 20% of KSI relate to single vehicle crashes – mostly on straight, well marked roads
• Sophisticated Lane Guidance Systems now available (Infiniti Q50 – Mercedes E-Class)
• New Research looking at Run-off-Road Tests – Straight and Radius
• Off Road and Across Lane -
Future Research – AES?
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New Technology – Autonomous Emergency Steering (AES?)
Run-off Road systems
• Sophisticated lane guidance systems already in production• Mercedes E class, Infiniti Q50, Subaru Levorg…• Interpret and react to solid and dashed markings, overtaking and oncoming traffic etc.
• 2015 Volvo XC90 has advanced Run-Off-Road system
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Autonomous Testing
AEB and AES – Building Blocks for the “partial” Autonomous Car - 2018
AEB AES
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The Autonomous Car
Motivation for automated driving functions
Safety
Fuel economy
Traffic efficiency
Improved mobility
Comfort
City planning
Eliminate human error
Optimised driving style for traffic and road
Minimise interruptions and optimise road space usage
Enable and maintain driving for individuals
Minimise driving stress. Travel time used for work or social purposes.
Separate parking and work locations. Efficient use of space.
+ more!
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The Autonomous Car
Levels of Autonomy and required technologies
• AEB
• Adaptive
Cruise control
• Parking and
Lane Keep
Assistance
• Cruise control
• ABS
• ESC
• Adaptive Cruise
Control with
lane keeping
• Traffic Jam
Assistance
• Road following
• Junction
decisioning
• Hazard detection
and evasive
decisioning
• V2V, V2I
1. Driver
Control
2. Assisted
Driving
3. Partial
Autonomy
4. High
Autonomy5. Full Autonomy
• Combination of all functions + Artificial intelligence and multiple
redundancies – No driver monitoring
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
New Car Sales %: Assisted Driving
Fleet %: Assisted Driving
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
New Car Sales %: Partial Autonomy
Fleet %: Partial Autonomy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Fleet %: High Autonomy
New Car Sales %: High Autonomy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Fleet %: High Autonomy
New Car Sales %: High Autonomy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
2018: Volvo and Mercedes road following
autonomy
Google autonomous car
Adapted from Autonomous Road Vehicles – POSTnote 443, September 2013, Dr. Chandrika Nath, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, Parliamentary Copyright 2013
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Future Testing
New Technologies need new evaluation procedures
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Partial Autonomous Driving – Demonstrations Today
Auto Parking - BMW
Parking Auto Brake- Infiniti
AEB – City Safety - Volvo
Queue Assist - Mercedes
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Car park AEB & auto-park demonstrations
City Safety
Auto-parking
Reverse auto-brake
Autonomous drive pick-up & drop-off
Viewing area
Viewing area
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Partial Autonomous (low speed) following demo (~20km/h)
Assembly & startPick up/drop off
outside Academy rear car park by other demos
Drive to start point
Negotiate roundabout
End at roundabout
Return & stop
Semi-autonomous following road train travels west along Gables Way
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Existing safety technology – is the driverless vehicle already here?
Matthew Avery – Safety Research Director