EXPECTANCY:

Mechanism of Behavior Change?

Mark S. Goldman, Ph.D. University of South Florida

Caution:

Work in progress

EXPECTANCY: ANTICIPATION OF A SYSTEMATIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EVENTS OR OBJECTS IN SOME UPCOMING SITUATION… BASED ON PRIOR EXPERIENCE (MEMORY)

…4 PART PROCESS—NOT JUST LIST OF OUTCOMES:

Cue (context) > Decision/memory process > Response > Outcome

Expectancy Correlational Evidence

Correlate with drinking - Up to 50% variance with error attenuated

e.g., Goldman, Greenbaum, & Darkes, 1997; Leigh & Stacy, 1993

Can be found in children before drinking begins (Cross-sectional & Longitudinal)

e.g., Christiansen, Goldman & Inn, 1982; Miller, Smith & Goldman, 1990; Zucker, Kincaid, Fitzgerald & Bingham, 1996; Newcomb, Chou, Bentler & Huba, 1988

Predict drinking prospectively

e.g., Smith, Goldman, Greenbaum & Christiansen, 1995; Sher, Wood, Wood & Raskin, 1996

Increase and decrease in parallel with drinking

e.g., Smith & Goldman, 1990; Sher, Walitzer, Wood & Brent, 1991; Henderson, Goldman, Coovert & Carnevalla, 1994; Darkes, Greenbaum & Goldman, 1996; Finn, Sharkansky, Brandt & Turcotte, 2000

EXPECTANCY TEMPLATES

AS A

BUFFER THAT

STORES INFORMATION

ON

DISTAL INPUTS

DISTAL INFLUENCES PROXIMAL BEHAVIOR

FAMILY HISTORY (GENETICS)

PHARMACOLOGICAL EFFECTS

METABOLISM & SENSITIVITY

AFFECTIVE & PERSONALITY FACTORS

FAMILY & CULTURAL ENVIRONMENT

PEER INFLUENCES

USAGE PATTERNS

Darkes, Greenbaum, & Goldman (2004). Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology, 12, 27-38.

“…ALDH2 status may protect against drinking by lowering positive expectancies and reducing the expectancy-drinking relationship.”

McCarthy, D.M., Wall, T.L., Brown, S.A., & Carr, L.G. (2000). Integrating biological and behavioral factors in alcohol use risk: The role of ALDH2 status and alcohol expectancies in a sample of Asian Americans. Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology, 8, 168-175.

Explicit and Implicit Measures of Expectancy and Related Alcohol Cognitions: A Meta-Analytic

Comparison • 16 studies using both explicit and implicit measures

• Explicit and implicit measures were weakly related

• Explicit measures outpredicted implicit (unreliability?)

• Implicit measures contributed uniqueness

• For prediction, use both

• For understanding memory operation--???

Reich, Below, & Goldman (2010). Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 24, 13-25

Efficacy of Expectancy Challenge Interventions to Reduce College Student Drinking: A Meta-Analytic Review • 14 studies (19 EC interventions)

• Experiential and Didactic

• Lower Alcohol Use and Expectancies

• Limited to 4 weeks

Scott-Sheldon, Terry, Carey, Garey, Carey (2012). Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 26, 393-405.

•Not unique to alcohol and drugs

•Scientific convergence (consilience)

The brain is an “anticipatory machine…”

Dennett, D.C. (1991). Consciousness Explained. New York, Little, Brown.

“Neural networks that match sensory input with learned expectations help explain how humans see, hear, learn and recognize information.”

Grossberg, S. (1995). The attentive brain. American Scientist, 83, 438-449.

“…infants…[between 9 and 14 weeks]…develop expectancies…”

Haith, M. M., Hazan, C. & Goodman, G.S. (1988). Expectations and Anticipation of Dynamic Visual Events by 3-5 Month Old Babies. Child Development, 59.

“... experimental study of anticipatory responding…is called Pavlovian (or classical) conditioning.”

Siegel, S., Krank, M.R., & Hinson, R.E. (1988). Anticipation of pharmacological and nonpharmacological events: Classical conditioning and addictive behaviors. In S. Peele (Ed.) Visions of addiction (85-116). Lexington, MA: D.C. Health and Company.

Dragoi, V. & Staddon, J.E.R. (1999). The Dynamics of Operant Conditioning. Psychological Review, 106, 20-61.

“Existing models of operant learning are relatively insensitive to historical properties of behavior… The contingent reinforcement is represented by learning expectancy…”

…dopaminergic neurons encode expectations about external rewards.”

Kandel, E., Schwartz, J., and Jessell, T. ( Eds.). (2000). Principles of Neural Science, Fourth Edition., p. 1010.

“…mere expectation of ethanol availability enhances the efflux of DA in the Nac of the P, but not the Wistar rat…”

Katner, S.N., Kerr, T.M., & Weiss, F. (1996). Ethanol anticipation enhances dopamine efflux in the nucleus accumbens of alcohol-preferring (P) but not Wistar rats. Behavioural Pharmacology, 7, 669-674.

Expectancy and …

Fear Nancy E. Schoenberger

Pain Reduction Donald D. Price and James J. Barrell

Sexual Dysfunction Eileen M. Palace

Asthma Samantha C. Sodergren and Michael E. Hyland

Drugs M. Vogel-Sprott and Mark T. Fillmore

Kirsch, I. ( Ed.). (1999). How Expectancies Shape Experience. Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association.

Alcohol Use and Alcoholism Mark S. Goldman, Jack Darkes and Frances K. Del Boca

Smoking Thomas H. Brandon, Laura M. Juliano, and Amy Copeland

Nocebo Phenomena Robert A. Hahn

Psychotherapy Joel Weinberger and Andrew Eig

Hypnosis James R. Council

• Behavior controlled by processes—not circles and arrows

• Our view of these processes is fuzzy and simplified—so, more work needed

• Will evolve with advances in behavioral neuroscience

Appreciation is expressed to the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism for their support for portions of this work: Grants R37 AA08333, R01s: AA6123, AA11925, AA16091

COLLEAGUES and STUDENTS:

Sandra Brown Bruce Christiansen Gregory Smith Frances K. Del Boca Jack Darkes Paul Greenbaum Richard Reich Kevin Stein Amie L. Haas Melinda Henderson Howard Steinberg Jane A. Noll Bruce Rather Felecia Sheffield Brian Levine Patricia Vincent-Roehling Laurie Roehrich W. Michael Hunt Andrew Weintraub Michael Dunn Andrea Weinberger Buffy Wooten Dennis Kramer Greg Aarons Rita Monteiro Genevieve Chenier Nicole Bekman Inna Fishman Ashlee Carter Karen Brandon Molly Below Ty Brumback John Ray Megan McMurray Robin Tan Patrick Logan Lauren Adams Quinn Yowell Bryan Benitez

The End

Thank You