expected return & performance overview of squrpharma
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Performance OverviewOF
A COMPANYS STOCKFor the months February and March, 2010
AND
THE EXPECTED RETURN OF THE STOCK IN
THE YEAR 2010
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Performance OverviewOF
A COMPANYS STOCKFor the months February and March, 2010
AND
THE EXPECTED RETURN OF THE STOCKIN THE YEAR 2010
P R E P A R E D F O R
Tashfeen Hussain
Faculty
Department of Finance and Accounting
School of Business
North South University
P R E P A R E D B Y (STUDENTS OF FIN 435.2)
Abdullah Al Habib (ID # 071 398 030)
Rayan Saif (ID # 071 125 030)
Touhidul Huq Khan (ID # 071 627 030)
Md. Rezwanul Hoque (ID # 072 185 030)
Shohan Ahmed (ID # 073 337 030)
April 20, 2010
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Tashfeen Hussain
Faculty
Department of Finance and Accounting
School of Business
North South University
Dear Sir:
Here is the report on the perf ormance overview of a companys stock (Square Pharmaceutical)
in the capital market f or the past two months February and March 2010, you asked us to
conduct on March 22, 2010.
As you will see, our analysis on the perf ormance overview of the companys stock in the capital
was done by analyzing the secondary market f or the past two months mentioned above.
According to our knowledge and understanding of the f ollowing matter, we have prepared an
analysis report on the perf ormance of the companys stock as well as f orecasted the expected
return f or the stock in 2010. We hope that our analysis and conclusion will help the readers
understand the perf ormance of the companys stock f or the f ollowing two months as well as
get a f orecast on f uture position of the companys stock.
We appreciate being assigned to this project.
Sincerely yours,
Abdullah Al Habib (ID # 071 398 030)
Rayan Saif (ID # 071 125 030)
Touhidul Huq Khan (ID # 072 627 030)
Md. Rezwanul Hoque (ID # 072 185 030)
Shohan Ahmed (ID # 073 337 030)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction «««««««««««««..««««««.««««««.1-2
2. Organizational Overview ««..««««««««««««««««.3-4
3. Theoretical Perspective ««««««««.««««««..«««««.5-7
4. Findings and Analysis« ««««««««««««..«««««....8-20
4.1. Performance overview of the company¶s stock «««««««8-13
4.2. The expected return of the stock for the year 2010««««.14-20
5. Conclusion «««««««««..««««««««««««««««.«..21
6. Appendix««««««««««««««««««««««««««...22-26
7. Reference««««««««««««««««««««««««««««..27
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1. Introduction
1.1 Origin
The report is prepared on the basis of instructions given by Tashfeen Hussain, instructor of the course Investment Theory (FIN 435). It is prepared by a group of five students of FIN 435
based on the perf ormance overview of a companys stock in the capital market f or the past two
months February and March, 2010 and the expected return of the stock in the year 2010. The
required market data f or the past two months was collected from DSE.
1.2 Objective
The objective of this report is to gain an idea about the perf ormance of the selected companys
stock in the capital market as well as the expectations regarding the companys stock to the
stakeholders. The project is done in the context of financial calculations. The project can be
divided into two parts
1. Perf ormance overview of the companys stock in the last two months February and
March.
2. The expected return of the stock f or the year 2010
1.3 ScopeCapital or stock market data of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited, a well known pharmaceutical
company, was collected f or the report. The perf ormance analysis was prepared based on the
data of the past two months staring from January 26 to March 31. The secondary market data
was collected from the company website as well as from Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).
1.4 Methodology
Secondary data f or this report regarding the stock market and Square Pharmaceuticals stock
was collected from various newspapers, websites and also the website of the stock exchange.
The secondary data was the main source of the report and many articles regarding the
perf ormance of the companys stock in the capital market was also very helpf ul. Primary data
regarding certain estimates and f uture assumptions of the capital market was collected from
capital market investors as well as from the Stock Exchange.
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1.5 Limitations and Assumptions
y Unavailability of data was a ma jor constraint in the project preparation. Sufficient
accessible data would have helped f or a better in depth analysis of the topic and possibly
more accurate findings
y Time constraint was a key obstacle in our preparation of a thoroughly researched project.
Due to lack of available time we had to make do with only the available inf ormation and not
go f or more extensive data.
y Lack of prof ound experience regarding the course kept the preparation of the project
limited to certain level of models and calculations and hence might not have produced most
accurate result.
y The price of a share in the secondary capital market in Bangladesh varies on a high scale to
other variables other than the market risk. The market risk seemed to be inf luenced more
by psychological factors rather than reacting to accurate market f luctuations resulting from
the appropriate usage of market inf ormation and has thus affected our calculation of the
regressed beta.
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2. Organizational Overview
2.1. Company Profile
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is the largest pharmaceutical company in Bangladesh and it has
been continuously in the 1stposition among all national and multinational companies since
1985. It was established in 1958 and converted into a public limited company in 1991.
SQUARE today symbolizes a name a state of mind. But its journey to the growth and
prosperity has been no bed of roses. From the inception in 1958, it has today burgeoned into
one of the top line conglomerates in Bangladesh. Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd., the f lagship
company, is holding the strong leadership position in the pharmaceutical industry of
Bangladesh since 1985 and is now on its way to becoming a high perf ormance global player.
Subsidiary Companies
y Square Cephalosporins Ltd
y Square Biotechs Ltd. y Square Multifabrics Limited
Squares product portfolio is divided into four parts:
y Pharmaceuticals products
y Basic chemicals
y AgroVet products
y Pesticides products
Squares sister concerns-
y Square Textiles Ltd.
y Square Spinnings Ltd.
y Square Toiletries Limited
y Square Consumer Products Ltd.
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y Square Knit Fabrics Ltd
y Square Inf omatix Ltd.
y Square Agro Development and Processing Ltd.
y Square Hospitals Ltd.
y Square Herbal and Nutraceuticals Ltd.
Company Profile
Company name Square Pharmaceuticals Limited
Sector Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare
Product/Services Manufacture and distribution of pharmaceuticals
Company Address Square Centre, 48 Mohakhali C/A, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh
Number of Employees 3,564
Company Website www.squarepharma.com.bd
Year of Establishment 1958
Year of Listing 1995
Capital Assets BDT 1112 Billion
Annual Revenue Around BDT 1.2 Billion
Authorized Capital BDT 5,000 Million
Paid-up Capital BDT 1207.22 Million
2.2 Corporate Focus
As per vision, mission and objectives; they are to emphasize on the quality of product, process
and services leading to growth of the company imbibed with good governance.
Square Pharmaceuticals Objective
Objectives of the Company; are to conduct transparent business operation based on market
mechanism within the legal & social frame work with aims to attain the mission ref lected by
their vision.
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3. Theoretical Perspective
As main objective of the course is to evaluate the perf ormance of the cement industry in the
capital market, we have used some theories which will be helpf ul f or us to evaluate and analyze
the perf ormance and activities of the cement industry in the year 2008 and 2009. So bef ore analyzing the perf ormance, we have discussed the concepts of the theories we have used
f urther f or analysis.
3.1 Arithmetic mean
The arithmetic mean (or simply the mean) of a list of numbers is the sum of the entire list
divided by the number of items in the list. If the list is a statistical population, then the mean of
that population is called a population mean. If the list is a statistical sample, we call the
resulting statistic a sample mean. The mean is the most commonly-used type of average and is
of ten referred to simply as the average. The term "mean" or "arithmetic mean" is preferred in
mathematics and statistics to distinguish it from other averages such as the median and the
mode.
If we denote a set of data by X = (x1, x2, ..., xn), then the sample mean is typically denoted with
a horizontal bar over the variable ( ,enunciated "x bar"). It is computed in the f ollowing way-
The arithmetic men or average is usef ul f or f orecasting the perf ormance of the quarterly
returns using the particular sample of historic returns. Though it is not that much technically
correct, but still it is used to come up with a quicker estimation of f orecasting.
3.2 Geometric mean:
The geometric mean, in mathematics, is a type of mean or average, which indicates the central
tendency or typical value of a set of numbers. It is similar to the arithmetic mean, which is what
most people think of with the word "average", except that instead of adding the set of numbers
and then dividing the sum by the count of numbers in the set, n, the numbers are multiplied
and then the nth root of the resulting product is taken.
The geometric average of the quarterly returns of a portf olio is equal to the single-per period
return that would give the same cumulative perf ormance as the sequence of the actual returns.
We calculate the geometric average by compounding the actual period by period returns then
finding the equivalent single-per period returns.
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= = 0.0829 or 8.29%
The geometric return is also called a time weighted average return because it ignores the
quarter to quarter variation in f unds under management. The geometric mean or average is
more technically correct as it does not weight returns in one period more heavily than those in
other periods. So it is more technically correct than the arithmetic mean.
3.4 Standard deviation
To understand the concept of the standard deviation, we have to understand the concept of
variance first. Variance is the expected value of the squared deviation from the mean, the
greater the dispersion of the expected returns and higher the uncertainty or risk of the
investment. The variance would be calculated with the f ollowing f ormula-
Variance =
Variance and the standard deviation are used to measure the risk of a portf olio with help of the
expected return and the probability. The possible drawback of the standard deviation and
variance as a measure of risk is that, they use positive deviations and negative deviations from
the expected returns symmetrically. If the distribution of the return is symmetric, then standard
deviation will approximate risk measures that f ocus solely on negative deviations. In the special
case that the distribution of the returns is approximately normal; the standard deviation will be
perfectly adequate to measure risk. Standard deviation is the square root of variance.
3.5 Beta
The beta or (i) is calculated by running a regression with the historical returns on the stock as
the dependent variable and the historical returns on the market proxy as the independent
variable. The regression is done taking the daily return of the stock and market proxy, so that
we can get a better and appropriate result. Beta is calculated with the f ollowing f ormula-
BETA ( i) = COV iM / 2M
Beta also identifies the responsiveness of the stocks to the market riskiness and how they are
perf orming f or those risks.
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3.7 Capital market:
A capital market is a market f or securities (debt or equity), where business enterprises
(companies) and governments can raise long-term f unds. It is defined as a market in which
money is provided f or periods longer than a year, as the raising of short-term f unds takes place
on other markets (e.g., the money market). The capital market includes the stock market
(equity securities) and the bond market (debt). Financial regulators, such as the Govt. or the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), oversee the capital markets in their designated
jurisdictions to ensure that investors are protected against fraud, among other duties. Capital
markets may be classified as primary markets and secondary markets. In primary markets, new
stock or bond issues are sold to investors via a mechanism known as underwriting. In the
secondary markets, existing securities are sold and bought among investors or traders, usually
on a securities exchange, over-the-counter, or elsewhere. We are working on the secondary
market of the stock exchange of Bangladesh where we are analyzing the perf ormance of the
cement industry in the capital market in Bangladesh.
3.8 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
In finance, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used to determine a theoretically
appropriate required rate of return of an asset, if that asset is to be added to an already well-
diversified portf olio, given that assets non-diversifiable risk. The model takes into account the
asset's sensitivity to non-diversifiable risk (also known as systematic risk or market risk) as well
as the expected return of the market and the expected return of a theoretical risk-free asset.
For individual securities, we make use of the security market line (SML) and its relation to
expected return and systematic risk (beta) to show how the market must price individual
securities in relation to their security risk class. The SML enables us to calculate the reward-to-
risk ratio f or any security in relation to that of the overall market. Theref ore, when the
expected rate of return f or any security is def lated by its beta coefficient, the reward-to-risk
ratio f or any individual security in the market is equal to the market reward-to-risk ratio.
The relationship between and required return is plotted on the securities market line (SML)
which shows expected return as a f unction of . The intercept is the nominal risk-free rate
available f or the market, while the slope is E(Rm R f ). The securities market line can be
regarded as representing a single-factor model of the asset price, where Beta is exposure to
changes in value of the Market. The equation of the SML is thus:
It is a usef ul tool in determining if an asset being considered f or a portf olio offers a reasonable
expected return f or risk.
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4. Analysis and Findings
4.1 Performance overview of the companys stock
We have started tracking our selected stock, Square Pharmaceuticals from the last week of the month of January. The shares of square pharmaceuticals fall in the A category shares and it is
under the pharmaceuticals industry. Among the pharmaceuticals industry there are about 19
more companies whose shares are been traded in the capital market. We have tracked our
selected stock till the end of the month of March. So, accumulating all these data we can say
that we tracked the stock of Square Pharmaceuticals in the capital market in the two months
that are February and March.
The theoretical perspectives discussed above are used to analyze the data f ound from the stock
tracking and these theories and instruments also helped us to f orecast f or the f uture or the
recent upcoming days. We have use the theories to do the daily analysis and also f or the weekly
analysis. The daily and weekly analysis of the stock of the Square Pharmaceuticals are discussed
below-
Daily data analysis
3100.00
3200.00
3300.00
3400.00
3500.00
3600.00
3700.00
3800.00
3900.00
2 6 - 1 - 2 0 0 6
2 8 - 1 - 2 0 0 8
1 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
3 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
7 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
9 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
1 1 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
1 5 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
1 7 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
2 2 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
2 4 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
2 8 - 2 - 2 0 1 0
2 - 3 - 2 0 1 0
4 - 3 - 2 0 1 0
8 - 3 - 2 0 1 0
1 0 - 3 - 2 0 1 0
1 4 - 3 - 2 0 1 0
1 6 - 3 - 2 0 1 0
2 1 - 3 - 2 0 1 0
2 3 - 3 - 2 0 1 2
2 5 - 3 - 2 0 1 4
2 9 - 3 - 2 0 1 6
3 1 - 3 - 2 0 1 8
Comparison of High, Low and Closing Price of Square
Pharmaceutical's Stock
LOW
HIGH
CLS PRICE
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Price
Looking into the pricing of the Square Pharmaceuticals in the stock market, we can see that the
highest price of the stock was 3746.75 taka which was on the 9th
February and the lowest price
of the stock was 3387.75 taka which was on the 26th
of January, 2010. ( See Appendix). If we see
closely in the prices of the stock, we can see that the prices actually started rising from the last
week of the January. This was because of the market inefficiency. Lots of news and issues about
the stock exchange were unknown to the investors and the shareholders. For this reason, just
by depending on some positive rumors, the price of the stock was going up rapidly. The prices
went up till the second week of the month of February and af ter that it started to decline. This
was because a crucial meeting to take some decisions about the stock market was been
cancelled which made a negative impact on the stock prices of most shares.
Looking in to the industry f or the pricing of the stock, the highest priced stock in the
pharmaceuticals industry was stock of Renata Pharmaceuticals with the highest price of 13,222taka and lowest priced stock in the industry was the stock of Keya Detergent with the highest
price of 93.30 taka. But only looking into the price, we cannot say that Renata Pharmaceuticals
was the best or Keya Detergent was the worst companies in the industry.
Daily Return Standard Deviation Geometric Mean Beta
ACI( ACI Limited. ) -0.02% 1.22% -0.030% 0.26317
ACIFORMULA( ACI Formulations Limited ) -0.13% 1.20% -0.141% 0.35355
AMBEEPHA( Ambee Pharma ) -0.14% 2.29% -0.170% 0.46301
BANGLAPRO( Bangla Process ) -0.10% 0.68% -0.105% -0.03818
BXPHARMA( Beximco Pharma ) -0.02% 1.71% -0.037% 0.45337
BXSYNTH( Beximco Synthetics ) 0.04% 1.92% 0.022% 0.20982 GLAXOSMITH( Glaxo SmithKline ) -0.04% 4.24% -0.129% 0.57957
IBNSINA( The Ibn Sina ) -0.18% 1.39% -0.184% 0.26083
IMAMBUTTON( Imam Button ) -0.11% 2.87% -0.147% 0.43919
KEYACOSMET( Keya Cosmetics ) 0.42% 3.03% 0.379% 0.72297
KEYADETERG( Keya Detergent ) 0.58% 2.77% 0.546% 0.53563
KOHINOOR( Kohinoor Chemicals ) 0.05% 2.42% 0.026% 0.00510
LIBRAINFU( Libra Inf usions Limited ) -0.39% 2.09% -0.416% -0.02797
MARICO( Marico Bangladesh Limited ) -0.22% 2.76% -0.259% 1.29921
ORIONINFU( Orion Inf usion ) -0.22% 2.16% -0.238% 0.57703
PHARMAID( Pharma Aids ) -0.21% 2.42% -0.237% 0.04328
RECKITTBEN( Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. ) -0.03% 3.46% -0.091% -0.11084
RENATA( Renata Ltd. ) -0.15% 2.29% -0.178% 0.41307
SQURPHARMA( Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. ) 0.14% 1.07% 0.139% 0.31065
TBL( Therapeutics ) -0.23% 2.27% -0.253% -0.44594
INDUSTRY -0.05% 1.02%
INDUSTRY (GM ) -0.075%
DSE Gen Index 0.15% 1.42% 0.142%
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Return
The perf ormance of a stock in the capital market mainly depends on the return or the changes
in price of a stock. As mentioned earlier we need to calculate the return of the stock f or
example the closing price of Square Pharmaceuticalss stock on January 26 and January 27,
were BDT 3387.50 taka and 3505.25 taka respectively.
Stock Return = (Todays Market Price Yesterdays Market Price) / Yesterdays Market Price
= (3505.25 3387.50) / 3387.50 * 100%
= 3.47%
The daily stock returns in the whole pharmaceuticals industry is given in the appendix-
If we see the return of the Square Pharmaceuticals on the daily basis, we could see that, the
highest return on the stock was 3.48% which was on the 27th of January and the lowest return
of -1.23% was on the 22nd
of February. The prices of the stock was higher in last week of
January which is been mentioned above than that of February. So f or this reason, the returns of
the stock was becoming negative, but still it ended up with a positive return of 0.47% till the
month of March. Square had the average daily return of 0.14%.
Looking into the industry f or the return analysis we can see that the company that is having the
highest returns in the capital market is Keya Detergent. Though Keya detergent had the lowest
share price in the market, but still it had got the highest average daily return of 0.58%. Other
than this, most of the companys average daily returns were negative and the lowest dailyaverage return in the industry was -0.39% and the company having that lowest average daily
return was Libra Infusions.
The industry average daily return in the month of February and March was -0.05% and the DSE
general index on average return was 0.15%. So in a whole, if we take the return into account,
we can say that the stock of Square Pharmaceuticals did not perf orm that bad in the capital
market, though their return was very low and it created a negative image in the minds of the
investors.
The daily average return is the arithmetic mean of the return of the stock and it is nottechnically correct to evaluate a stocks return and its perf ormance. To be technically more
correct we have to take into account, the geometric mean of the returns of the stocks in the
capital market.
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Geometric mean of the return
While the mean is of ten used to report central tendency, arithmetic mean is greatly inf luenced
by outliers. When computing the rate of return where there are too many f luctuations in the
data it is better to find the average using the geometric mean, not the arithmetic mean because
geometric mean is technically more correct.
The geometric mean of the Square Pharmaceuticals is almost equal to the arithmetic mean. The
geometric mean was 0.139% and the arithmetic mean was 0.14%. So the difference between
them is negligible. It is so because the f luctuations in return are not that much high in other
words the standard deviation from the mean is low. There is a slight difference between the
geometric mean and the arithmetic mean of the industry which are -0.075% and -0.05%
respectively. So looking into the geometric mean of the industry we can say that Square
Pharmaceuticals have perf ormed well in the market in the tracking period. The geometric mean
and the arithmetic mean of the DSE general index was also close which were 0.142% and 0.15%respectively.
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation shows how much variation there is from the average or mean. It helps to
measure uncertainty or risk of an investment and compare the risk and return f or alternative
investments directly. A low standard deviation indicates that volatility or risk of investing in the
stock is low, whereas high standard deviation indicates that the data are spread out over a large
range of values and volatility of the historical returns is high. Risk is an important factor in
determining the efficiency of an investment because it determines the variation in returns on
the asset and gives investors a mathematical basis f or investment decisions. The overall
concept of risk is that as it increases, the expected return on the asset will increase as a result
of the risk premium earned in other words, investors should expect a higher return or loss on
an investment when said investment carries a higher level of risk, or uncertainty of that return.
Looking into the standard deviation of the stock returns of the Square Pharmaceuticals, we can
see that the standard deviation in the month of February and March was 1.07%. It means that
the return can deviate from the mean return by 1.07%. Though, the standard deviation is
higher than 1, but still it can be considered low f or the company.
In the industry, the highest standard deviation of 4.24% was owned by the Glaxo-smithcline
company. This was because the volatility of their prices in the stock market is very high and f or
this reason the return on average may f luctuate from the mean by 4.24%. The company that
was having the lowest standard deviation of 0.68% was Bangla Process company and it
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indicates that their prices did not f luctuate that much in the market and as a result their return
from the mean can deviate only by 0.68%.
The average standard deviation of the whole pharmaceuticals industry was 1.02% and the
average standard deviation of the DSE general index was 1.42%.
Beta
The beta is calculated by running a regression with the historical returns on the stock as the
dependent variable and the historical returns on the market proxy as the independent variable.
The regression is done taking the daily return of the stock and market proxy.
The share prices ref lect the market risk if it is moving in the direction of the market proxy that is
the DSE General Price Index. A standardized measure of systematic risk based upon the assets covariance with the market return. Beta indicates the responsiveness of the stock to the market
risk. Beta is calculated by-
BETA ( i) = COV iM / 2M
Looking into the data of Square Pharmaceuticals in the capital market we find that the beta of
the company in the months of February and March was 0.31 and it shows the standardized
measure of risk is 0.31 and the responsive of the stock to the overall market risk was 0.31 which
is actually very low.
Looking into the industry, we can see that the company having the highest beta of 1.299 is
Marico Bangladesh and it truly shows that the company is having the stocks the responses to
the market risk and also changes according to the market. The company having the lowest beta
is TBL (Therapeutics) which had the lowest beta of -0.44 and it indicates that the
responsiveness to the overall market risk is very low in the stocks of the company and it might
suffer miserably in the upcoming recent f uture.
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W eekly return
Weekly Return
WEEK SQUARE INDUSTRY INDEX
Return % Change Return % Change Return % Change
1 1.44% -3.36% 1.25%
2 1.31% -0.13% -2.12% 1.24% 2.65% 1.41%
3 -1.91% -3.22% 0.38% 2.50% 0.27% -2.38%
4 0.10% 2.01% -1.13% -1.51% 1.08% 0.81%
5 -0.56% -0.66% -0.03% 1.11% 1.45% 0.36%
6 -0.61% -0.05% -2.11% -2.08% -1.83% -3.28%
7 1.22% 1.83% 2.25% 4.36% 0.62% 2.46%
8 2.02% 0.80% 4.18% 1.93% 1.26% 0.64%
We have also analyzed the weekly return of the Square Pharmaceuticals stock in the capital
market. The weekly return was calculated by taking the percentage change in price of the stock
over the week.
Weekly Stock Return = (Thursdays Price Sundays Price) / Sundays price
Looking into the data of the weekly return we can see that the highest weekly return was on
the last week of March and also the last week of our tracking and the return was 2.02%. This
was because, af ter a bit of price decline in the month of February, the stock prices had started
to go back to its previous stages. The lowest return from the stock was -1.91% which was on the
third week and on the month of February.
If we compare it to the industry, the industry weekly return was also in the highest position in
the last week of March and it was 4.18% and it clearly shows that, af ter a long time the industry
had started to get back in a profitable stage.
Looking into the whole market we find that the highest return from the stock was on the
second week of our stock tracking and it was on the month of February. But at that time neither
the Square Pharmaceuticals nor the Pharmaceuticals industry did well in the market.
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4.1 The expected return of the stock for the year 2010
The expected return of a companys stock depends on three factors
i. How the economy is expected to perf orm
ii. The outlook of the industry
iii. How the particular company is doing
For f orecasting the expected return we have analyzed the market data of Square
Pharmaceuticals stock f or the last two years starting from January 2008 to December 2009. We
have used the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) as well as Blooms Forecasting model f or
calculating the expected return.
Firstly it was necessary to identif y how the pharmaceutical industry and the capital market
were perf orming in respect to Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. It is also necessary to understand
the economic condition of the past two years. Since extensive analysis of the relationship
between the capital market and economy shows that the market returns act as an indicator of
the upcoming economic conditions. So high market returns favorably shows that the economy
will be undergoing a boom very shortly and low return indicates an economic recession.
So base on the above analysis we are assuming that the market return is showing the economic
conditions of the country. If we study the market conditions of both the year we will see that
the market has moved through many ups and downs in the last two years.
If we study the market data closely we can conclude that the market return in 2008. Investors
were reluctant to invest in the capital market. In simple words 2008 has been quite a difficult
year f or the capital market. The reason behind this is the fall in share prices of most of the
companies in the capital market along with the global recession, political unrest and the
unwillingness of investor to invest in capital market. We can roughly assume the countrys
economy was moving through a recession.
In 2009, Dhaka Stock Exchange had record breaking transaction amounts. The overall market
return was better than the previous year. The stock returns of most of the companies increased
by a considerable amount over the year. The investors were willing to invest since the world
was recovering from the global recession and Bangladesh was politically more stable in 2009. We can roughly assume the countrys economy was moving through a boom.
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MONTH Industry
DSE Gen
Index SQURPHARMA Perf ormance
January-08 9.38% -3.38% -8.10% Bad
February-08 8.58% 1.42% -0.04% Average
March-08 46.05% 3.44% 16.45% Good
April-08 -0.28% 1.56% 8.66% Average
May-08 4.31% 2.13% 12.99% Average
June-08 -4.69% -6.47% 1.14% Average
July-08 6.77% -8.85% -25.22% Bad
August-08 -3.87% 3.76% -26.41% Bad
September-08 3.67% 5.18% -6.98% Average
October-08 1.48% -8.42% 4.27% Average
November-08 -12.34% -8.04% -2.94% Bad
December-08 11.29% 11.06% 9.09% Good
January-09 14.08% -5.63% -5.04% Average
February-09 10.80% -3.41% -0.89% Average
March-09 -0.23% -6.83% 0.23% Average
April-09 -5.85% 4.55% -3.29% Average May-09 6.04% 1.30% 14.42% Good
June-09 11.51% 15.91% 16.83% Good
July-09 7.87% -5.06% -12.77% Bad
August-09 3.57% 0.01% -24.40% Bad
September-09 13.27% 4.53% 10.42% Good
October-09 1.98% 7.72% -1.38% Average
November-09 -4.70% 29.15% 9.78% Good
December-09 11.35% 2.52% -3.68% Average
Average Monthly
Return 5.83% 1.59% -0 .7 0 %
200 8 5.8 6% -0 .55% -1.42%
200 9 5.8 1% 3.73% 0 .12%
The above table shows the monthly stock, industry and market return f or 2008 and 2009. Since
more diversif y the portf olio is, the more it will ref lect the market risk premium, so the DSE
General Index is taken as the market proxy. The returns are calculated by taking the percentage
change in the closing price. The difference in the closing price of the first day of the month and
the last day of the month is taken as the change in closing price. The market return was
calculated in the similar fashion.
Monthly Return = (Months ending price months beginning price) / months beginning price
= (closing price of Jan 31 closing price of Jan 1) / closing price of Jan 1
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The industry average was calculated by taking the average stock return of most of the
companies in the industry. The industry return is reasonably better than the market return
because the demand f or pharmaceutical products declines very little since the demand is
inelastic. The companies that are included in the industry average are
AMBEE PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED BANGLADESH CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED
BANGLA PROCESS INDUSTRIES LIMITED WATA CHEMICALS LIMITED
BEXIMCO PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED NATIONAL POLYMER INDUSTRIES LIMITED
GLAXOSMITHKLINE BANGLADESH LTD. BEXIMCO SYNTHETICS LIMITED
ADVANCED CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED LIBRA INFUSIONS LTD.
PETRO SYNTHETIC PRODUCTS LTD. ORION INFUSION LTD.
RENATA LIMITED SQUARE PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
PHARMACO INTERNATIONAL LTD. IMAM BUTTON INDUSTRIES LIMITED
RECKITT BENCKISER(BANGLADESH) LTD. PERFUME CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES LTD.
THERAPEUTICS(BANGLADESH) LIMITED KEYA COSMETICS LTD.
PHARMA AIDS LIMITED AL-AMIN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES LTD.
KOHINOOR CHEMICAL COMPANY(BANGLADESH) LTD. KEYA DETERGENT LTD. THE IBN SINA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY LTD. ACI FORMULATIONS LIMITED
RAHMAN CHEMICALS LIMITED MARICO BANGLADESH LIMITED
From the above data we can draw a graph on the monthly returns of the two years.
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
R e t u r n s
Stock, Market and Industry Return in 2008 and 2009
Industry DSE Gen Index SQURPHARMA
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By studying the graph and above data we can see that the return on Squares stock was poor or
very low in 2008 compared to the industry though it was considerably better in 2009. If you
consider the economic condition which is indicated by the market, we can see that the
economy has roughly completed one economic cycle since it was in recession in 2008 and there
was a boom in 2009, whereas the industry perf ormed similarly in both the years. Around one -f ourth time in the 24 month time period Squares stock en joyed good return and in the same
ratio it has faced bad returns, rest of the month it had an average return. From the above study
we can conclude that in terms of the probability of Squares returns.
Condition Probability
Good 0.25
Average 0.50
Bad 0.25
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
The cost of capital is calculated by the equation
RRRe = R(rf) + { R(m) - R(rf) } *
R(rf ) = Return on risk free rate
R(m) = Market Return
(i) = Regressed beta.
We can use this f ormula to estimate the f uture return of a stock. The required rate of return is calculated by taking the risk free rate and risk premium of past years. For find the expected
return of the asset the f uture risk premiums must be determined as well as the expected risk
free rate in the upcoming year. The f ormula can be written in a modified f orm f or calculating of
the expected return.
E(R) = E(rf) + { E(m) - E(rf) } *
The Beta which shows the firms systematic risk in correspondence with the market risk is the
same f or both the equation since it is believed that the amount of risk in the asset over the
market risk is constant over time.
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The risk-free interest rate is the interest rate that it is assumed can be obtained by investing in
financial instruments with no default risk. However, the financial instrument can carry other
types of risk. The interest rate on government bonds is a close substitution to the risk free rate
because the default risk is zero or assumed to be zero.
Bangladesh Bank currently has three types of Bonds available.
1. US Dollar Premium Bond @ 7.5%
2. US Dollar Investment Bond @ 6.5%
3. Wage-Earner Development Bond @ variable rates depending on the maturity date.
The average of the interest can be approximated as the risk free rate. The market is currently
using 7.5% as the risk free rate according to DSE and other financial institutions, drawn by
finance experts. Since the maturity of the bonds is beyond 2010, so we can safely assume the risk free rate to be 7.5% in 2010 f or our calculation.
Table Extract ( The calculation is done on excel and due some constrain only the results are
shown) Stock price from Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 30, 2009
Date Stock Price Stock Return DSE Gen Index Market Return
January 1, 2008 3,737.00 3,008.91
January 2, 2008 3,593.75 -3.83% 2,959.36 -1.65%
January 3, 2008 3,579.00 -0.41% 2,979.49 0.68%
January 6, 2008 3,499.25 -2.23% 2,929.33 -1.68%
January 7, 2008 3,520.50 0.61% 2,922.86 -0.22%
January 8, 2008 3,553.25 0.93% 2,947.03 0.83%
January 9, 2008 3,593.75 1.14% 2,989.36 1.44%
January 10, 2008 3,553.25 -1.13% 2,993.16 0.13%
December 22, 2009 2,851.75 1.08% 4,408.96 1.84%
December 23, 2009 2,871.25 0.68% 4,428.07 0.43%
December 24, 2009 2,837.50 -1.18% 4,429.19 0.03%
December 27, 2009 2,836.00 -0.05% 4,475.44 1.04%
December 29, 2009 2,858.00 0.78% 4,519.36 0.98%
December 30, 2009 2,876.25 0.64% 4,535.53 0.36%
The stock return was calculated by taking the difference of the stock prices of two consecutive
dates and was divided by the earlier date price. It shows how much the stock price has grown
or fallen according to the previous days price. The market return is calculated similarly.
Return = (Todays Market Price Yesterdays Market Price) / Yesterdays Market Price
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The beta or (i) is calculated by running a regression with the historical returns on the stock as
the dependent variable and the historical returns on the market proxy as the independent
variable. Since more diversif y the portf olio is, the more it will ref lect the market risk premium,
so the DSE General Index is taken as the market proxy. The regression is done taking the daily
return of the stock and market proxy, so that we can get a better result. Both the returns are calculated from January 2008 to December 2009. ( The calculation is done using excel and due
some constrain only the results are shown)
The regressed beta is calculated by a f ormula as f ollows:
BETA ( i ) = (COV i M / 2M )
= 0.000098 /0.000253
= 0.38701
The slope of the SML is equal to the Market Risk Premium and ref lects investors' degree of risk aversion
at a given time.
Market return and risk premium
The expected market return is calculated by using the Bloom f orecasting model
Average E (Rm) = [(T-1) * Geometric Mean + (N T) * Arithmetic mean] / (N-1)
The T is the f uture time period f or which the average return is to be calculated and N is the time
period of the historical data that is analyzed.
2008 2009 2008-2009
AM -0.02% 0.21% 0.10%
GM -0.03% 0.20% 0.09%
The table shows the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean of the daily market return f or
only 2008, only 2009 and also the two years combined. From the above graphs and tables that
we have previously analyzed we can say that the market had done poor in terms of
perf ormance in 2008 and good in 2009 and if we combine the two we get average perf ormance. If we use Bloom method with the f ollowing means we can find the market return
f or a good, average and poor perf ormance. Since according to capital asset pricing model the
stock return ref lects the market return to some extent so we can calculate the expected stock
return considering the three scenarios based on historical data.
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Our data is calculated on a daily basis and there were 480 trading days in the time period of
January 2008 to December 2009. So we can assume that in 2010 we will have 240 trading days.
Yearly market return using Blooms model and the three market conditions
E(RM) - Good condition = [(240-1) * 0.20% + (480 240) * 0.21%] / (480-1) * 240
= 49.45%
E(RM) - Average condition = [(240-1) * 0.09% + (480 240) * 0.10%] / (480-1) * 240
= 21.95%
E(RM) - Poor condition = [(240-1) * -0.03% + (480 240) * -0.02%] / (480-1) * 240
= -6.46%
From the expected market return and the estimated risk free rate we can calculate the risk
premium on the market over the risk free rate.
As explained earlier the expected return on the stock is
E(R) = E(rf) + { E(m) - E(rf) } *
If the stock undergoes similar conditions than we can calculate the expected return of the stock
f or all the three scenarios
E(R) - Good condition = 7.5% + (49.45% - 7.5%) * 0.38701
= 23.73%
E(R) - Average condition = 7.5% + (21.95% - 7.5%) * 0.38701
= 13.09%
E(R) - Poor condition = 7.5% + (-6.46% - 7.5%) * 0.38701
= 2.10%
Now if we calculate the expected return based on the probability that we calculated earlier we
get.
Expected Return = 2.10% *0.25 + 13.09% * 0.50 + 23.73% * 0.25
= 13.00%
So the expected return on Square Pharmaceuticals stock in 2010 is f orecasted to be 13%.
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5. Conclusion
From our analysis we can that the stock price of Square Pharmaceuticals was considerably high
during the early earlier weeks. As we moved through the weeks its stock price started declining
until the last two weeks of March when the price was again climbing upward. A declining price
movement as such assists investors who take a short position. During the month of February
Square Pharmaceuticals stock was very much applicable f or a short sale. The reason behind the
rapid decline in price was that the stock was over-valued.
The average return on the stock of 0.14% over the two months period was very low though it
was better than the industry average and was closer to the market average. Compare to the
risk of the market return and industry return, Squares stock had an average risk of 1.02%, since
the industry average was very close to this figure. The geometric mean which is technically
more correct in calculating the average return of the share since it takes the f luctuations in
share prices into consideration was 0.139%.
The expected stock return f or the year 2010 is 13% which is f orecasted by using capital asset
pricing model. If we consider the required rate of return of the asset over the similar period we
will see that the required rate of return is 13.67%. According to our knowledge if the expected
return is lower than the required rate of return than the asset is over-priced. From the
perf ormance overview of the stock which was conducted over the two months February and
March 2010 shows that the asset was overpriced during earlier period of this year, confirming
the fact that the asset is over-priced and expected return is higher than the required rate of
return.
RRRe = R(rf) + RP *
=7.5% + 15.89% * 0.38701
=13. 67%
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6. Appendix
26-1-2006 27 -1-200 7 28 -1-200 8 31-1-200 9 1-2-2010 2-2-2010 3-2-2010 4-2-2
1 ACI Limited 509.70 518.10 520.60 511.50 510.70 522.80 517.20 510
2 ACI Formulations Limited 186.60 189.30 194.20 188.30 187.50 183.30 181.00 180
3 Ambee Pharma 284.30 277.60 282.70 277.90 280.20 275.20 271.10 269
4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149
5 Beximco Pharma 185.40 184.40 183.40 179.80 183.80 174.70 170.40 169
6 Beximco Synthetics 411.50 412.25 410.25 410.25 410.25 395.25 387.00 386
7 Glaxo SmithKline 856.10 862.20 854.80 844.40 842.50 838.60 806.30 819
8 The Ibn Sina 1621.00 1636.25 1667.00 1688.50 1737.25 1708.50 1672.50 1661
9 Imam Button 291.50 288.50 292.75 290.25 290.50 284.00 281.00 276
10 Keya Cosmetics 95.50 101.40 107.20 96.70 96.80 97.60 97.50 97.
11 Keya Detergent 68.70 71.40 72.80 66.90 66.30 68.20 68.60 68.
12 Kohinoor Chemicals 2273.25 2250.25 2250.00 2300.00 2325.50 2320.00 2320.00 2320
13 Libra Inf usions Limited 2222.50 2222.50 2222.50 2250.00 2171.75 2022.50 2105.00 2061
14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 496.90 507.20 521.50 508.50 508.20 507.40 496.00 496
15 Orion Inf usion 856.75 852.50 881.25 868.50 858.50 839.75 808.50 81116 Pharma Aids 3518.00 3518.00 3869.75 3842.00 3561.75 3629.50 3588.25 3589
17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1999.10 1912.50 1857.90 1895.10 1916.50 1785.00 1721.60 1721
18 Renata Ltd. 12999.50 12999.50 12999.50 13222.80 13165.50 13091.25 12505.00 1291
19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3387.50 3505.25 3604.25 3592.25 3577.75 3637.25 3617.50 3644
20 Therapeutics 605.75 605.75 600.00 619.00 578.75 570.00 570.00 562
DSE Gen Index 5243.44910 5310.74660 5390.48353 5367.10661 5575.15356 5503.37894 5399.64698 5434.0
7 -2-2010 8 -2-2010 9-2-2010 10-2-2010 11-2-2010 14-2-2010 15-2-2010
Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price
1 ACI Limited 510.80 509.30 510.10 511.00 512.10 520.10 538.90
2 ACI Formulations Limited 180.20 178.10 180.40 183.60 180.10 181.60 181.50 3 Ambee Pharma 274.20 268.70 270.80 266.60 260.10 253.70 247.10
4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00
5 Beximco Pharma 169.70 168.10 171.50 171.30 171.30 170.30 170.50
6 Beximco Synthetics 385.00 382.25 382.25 384.25 377.50 371.25 374.50
7 Glaxo SmithKline 829.50 818.00 822.30 818.10 711.50 836.60 909.00
8 The Ibn Sina 1674.50 1650.25 1640.75 1643.50 1667.50 1644.50 1632.25
9 Imam Button 275.75 274.50 271.50 273.00 260.75 256.25 261.50
10 Keya Cosmetics 97.60 96.10 98.90 104.00 103.40 103.70 110.10
11 Keya Detergent 67.50 66.30 68.60 72.20 72.60 72.60 75.50
12 Kohinoor Chemicals 2320.00 2200.00 2200.00 2200.00 2200.00 2200.00 2200.00
13 Libra Inf usions Limited 2061.00 2068.00 2068.00 1990.25 1965.00 1965.00 1965.00
14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 492.70 497.90 498.00 500.10 496.60 492.50 502.40
15 Orion Inf usion 812.25 797.75 784.50 776.50 767.75 780.75 808.75 16 Pharma Aids 3590.00 3518.75 3527.25 3389.00 3498.00 3478.75 3404.00
17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1721.60 1721.60 1689.80 1750.00 1630.00 1645.00 1698.90
18 Renata Ltd. 12584.50 12110.25 12535.25 11938.75 11900.00 12100.00 12225.00
19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3651.50 3675.75 3746.75 3729.75 3699.25 3722.25 3687.75
20 Therapeutics 574.00 574.00 551.00 560.00 554.50 547.50 530.00
DSE Gen Index 5490.10679 5552.85992 5603.18602 5600.73467 5635.72979 5745.36969 5728.91455
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16-2-2010 17 -2-2010 18 -2-2010 22-2-2010 23-2-2010 24-2-2010 25-2-2010
Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price
1 ACI Limited 526.90 524.20 523.90 528.50 525.70 521.60 517.20
2 ACI Formulations Limited 178.50 179.30 179.20 179.80 177.90 176.80 178.00
3 Ambee Pharma 252.50 254.50 255.20 251.90 252.50 250.20 247.30
4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00
5
Beximco Pharma 169.10 168.40 168.90 1
70.80 1
72.50 1
7
1.50 169.20
6 Beximco Synthetics 368.25 362.75 366.75 365.25 369.00 364.00 361.25
7 Glaxo SmithKline 908.70 827.60 872.60 828.50 811.50 822.80 831.30
8 The Ibn Sina 1622.25 1622.00 1616.25 1612.75 1562.25 1578.25 1595.25
9 Imam Button 259.23 256.50 257.00 248.25 249.50 245.00 245.00
10 Keya Cosmetics 114.80 117.30 118.60 117.80 112.30 113.10 113.30
11 Keya Detergent 77.30 78.70 79.50 77.10 75.30 75.10 75.60
12 Kohinoor Chemicals 2100.00 2112.00 2112.00 2112.00 2000.50 2050.00 2050.00
13 Libra Inf usions Limited 1965.00 1900.00 1900.00 1841.00 1851.50 1851.50 1851.50
14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 503.60 497.20 466.90 421.80 436.20 444.70 447.50
15 Orion Inf usion 812.75 792.00 782.25 761.25 754.50 749.50 735.50
16 Pharma Aids 3393.00 3393.00 3382.50 3301.50 3244.25 3116.25 3106.50
17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1695.90 1695.90 1718.70 1759.00 1640.00 1640.00 1757.20
18 Renata Ltd. 12224
.75
1217
2.00 1213
6.25
1175
8.75
11357
.75
114
11.75
11534
.00 19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3673.00 3655.50 3651.00 3606.25 3605.25 3570.50 3609.75
20 Therapeutics 530.00 521.00 520.25 510.00 505.75 508.00 508.00
DSE Gen Index 5745.78457 5828.38292 5760.94568 5622.99514 5607.36938 5691.02968 5683.92697
28 -2-2010 1-3-2010 2-3-2010 3-3-2010 4-3-2010 7 -3-2010 8 -3-2010
Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price
1 ACI Limited 509.70 508.50 505.30 508.80 516.50 513.20 508.00
2 ACI Formulations Limited 175.90 175.20 174.90 175.10 179.20 179.70 177.50
3 Ambee Pharma 246.00 243.90 253.90 253.10 262.40 260.40 256.30
4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00
5 Beximco Pharma 166.50 166.20 166.20 166.00 169.20 170.20 168.80 6 Beximco Synthetics 355.50 353.50 352.50 352.25 356.25 361.75 360.50
7 Glaxo SmithKline 838.80 824.80 828.90 822.80 811.50 817.40 807.50
8 The Ibn Sina 1591.75 1591.75 1594.00 1590.25 1612.25 1568.50 1579.00
9 Imam Button 246.00 244.00 244.25 246.50 246.25 241.75 239.25
10 Keya Cosmetics 110.60 109.00 110.50 108.80 113.40 116.20 113.40
11 Keya Detergent 75.50 74.80 75.50 76.20 79.30 84.80 83.60
12 Kohinoor Chemicals 2050.00 2050.00 2030.00 2030.00 2030.00 2030.00 2030.00
13 Libra Inf usions Limited 1880.00 1880.00 1801.00 1800.00 1800.00 1781.75 1742.75
14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 431.70 431.00 423.90 426.30 430.50 431.40 414.00
15 Orion Inf usion 733.50 732.75 722.50 725.50 724.00 721.00 707.75
16 Pharma Aids 3093.50 3136.50 3119.00 3185.00 3130.25 3158.25 3186.75
17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1790.60 1661.00 1700.00 1610.00 1690.00 1690.00 1690.00
18 Renata Ltd. 11860.50 11310.00 11306.00 11019.50 11314.00 11611.50 11611.50 19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3596.25 3554.00 3529.50 3570.75 3576.00 3565.25 3554.00
20 Therapeutics 508.00 508.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 501.25
DSE Gen Index 5560.56104 5567.40015 5588.00609 5634.05998 5640.94367 5602.59453 5486.43492
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9-3-2010 10-3-2010 11-3-2010 14-3-2010 15-3-2010 16-3-2010 18-3-2010 21-3-20
Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Pri
1 ACI Limited 505.20 507.60 505.50 495.20 497.20 508.30 505.50 505.6
2 ACI Formulations Limited 175.60 176.80 175.40 173.00 173.00 176.90 175.50 176.3
3 Ambee Pharma 253.60 258.70 253.50 249.40 246.10 251.90 248.30 255.5
4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.0
5
Beximco Pharma 167.20 168.
50 16
7.80 168.80 16
7.20 169.10 1
72.80 1
7
9.66 Beximco Synthetics 356.75 354.50 353.00 347.25 345.50 354.00 354.50 374.7
7 Glaxo SmithKline 807.50 831.70 833.20 817.60 806.00 834.70 845.10 846.2
8 The Ibn Sina 1587.50 1554.50 1556.75 1527.00 1509.50 1540.75 1573.50 1561.7
9 Imam Button 238.25 236.50 236.50 234.25 221.25 235.00 235.00 237.5
10 Keya Cosmetics 110.90 110.30 110.80 108.20 107.80 112.30 115.20 117.2
11 Keya Detergent 83.00 85.10 88.20 84.90 87.00 91.50 90.80 93.30
12 Kohinoor Chemicals 1920.00 1920.00 1900.00 1900.00 1900.00 1900.00 1900.00 1900.0
13 Libra Inf usions Limited 1733.75 1733.75 1675.00 1675.00 1675.00 1675.00 1660.00 1662.0
14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 398.20 405.10 408.20 400.40 395.10 409.60 404.20 434.0
15 Orion Inf usion 701.00 705.75 696.25 679.75 674.50 701.00 717.75 731.2
16 Pharma Aids 3124.75 3131.25 3157.50 3100.00 3049.00 3138.00 3180.00 3160.2
17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1690.00 1570.00 1572.00 1550.70 1550.70 1585.30 1664.40 1728.4
18 Renata Ltd. 11100.75
11345
.00 114
80.00 114
80.00 11100.00 113
10.00 115
27
.00 117
8019 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3535.75 3545.75 3543.50 3517.50 3490.75 3551.75 3560.50 3570.2
20 Therapeutics 501.25 501.25 499.25 499.25 499.25 480.00 500.00 500.0
DSE Gen Index 5400.39843 5519.66926 5499.83739 5375.07367 5338.13847 5460.75184 5408.66338 5548.22
22-3-2011 23-3-2012 24-3-2013 25-3-2014 28-3-2015 29-3-2016 30-3-2017 31-3-201
Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Pric
1 ACI Limited 514.20 504.50 508.70 506.40 503.30 500.00 499.00 503
2 ACI Formulations Limited 177.80 176.10 176.80 176.90 177.60 177.00 175.10 175
3 Ambee Pharma 253.80 252.50 259.50 278.50 289.20 276.70 269.80 263
4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1097
5 Beximco Pharma 178.80 175.10 182.40 187.70 191.30 187.00 185.50 182
6 Beximco Synthetics 385.50 376.00 376.00 381.00 406.00 411.00 423.50 415
7 Glaxo SmithKline 843.60 827.90 837.30 812.10 815.60 815.90 808.60 808
8 The Ibn Sina 1571.75 1573.25 1577.00 1538.00 1527.25 1534.00 1531.25 1494
9 Imam Button 261.25 261.75 277.80 292.25 299.75 282.50 283.25 273
10 Keya Cosmetics 116.40 113.00 116.20 113.80 111.60 110.50 113.40 112
11 Keya Detergent 92.40 89.80 91.10 89.60 88.10 87.20 88.20 87
12 Kohinoor Chemicals 1999.75 2182.25 2200.00 2200.00 2299.50 2299.00 2299.00 2299
13 Libra Inf usions Limited 1662.00 1744.50 1794.00 1794.25 1794.25 1810.00 1810.00 1849
14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 440.00 435.10 449.30 444.40 436.10 440.90 435.00 443
15 Orion Inf usion 770.25 743.50 770.00 806.00 811.25 790.50 777.00 771
16 Pharma Aids 3159.00 3149.50 3175.00 3215.25 3195.75 3170.00 3154.50 3168
17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1792.00 1787.50 1825.00 1888.60 1920.50 1920.50 1920.50 1920
18 Renata Ltd. 11898.50 11757.00 12014.00 12199.75 12149.50 12025.00 12016.75 12016
19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3585.50 3593.25 3672.00 3642.50 3592.75 3584.00 3600.75 3600
20 Therapeutics 500.00 480.75 490.75 521.75 548.75 541.80 541.75 541
DSE Gen Index 5562.37507 5518.93777 5633.45597 5618.18735 5560.10116 5524.10662 5533.62294 5582.33
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Square Pharmaceuticals High, Low and Closing Price of the stock
DATE LOW HIGH CLS PRICE
26-1-2006 3332.00 3410.00 3387.50
27-1-2007 3381.00 3518.00 3505.25
28-1-2008 3500.00 3625.00 3604.25
31-1-2009 3580.00 3648.00 3592.25 1-2-2010 3565.00 3599.00 3577.75
2-2-2010 3550.00 3694.50 3637.25
3-2-2010 3602.00 3736.00 3617.50
4-2-2010 3610.00 3680.00 3644.00
7-2-2010 3641.00 3680.00 3651.50
8-2-2010 3645.00 3684.00 3675.75
9-2-2010 3681.00 3754.50 3746.75
10-2-2010 3723.00 3780.00 3729.75
11-2-2010 3693.00 3759.00 3699.25
14-2-2010 3666.50 3727.00 3722.25
15-2-2010 3680.00 3740.00 3687.75
16-2-2010 3670.00 3714.75 3673.00
17-2-2010 3645.00 3692.00 3655.50 18-2-2010 3600.00 3684.75 3651.00
22-2-2010 3599.00 3672.50 3606.25
23-2-2010 3594.00 3644.00 3605.25
24-2-2010 3560.00 3605.00 3570.50
25-2-2010 3544.50 3650.00 3609.75
28-2-2010 3589.00 3649.75 3596.25
1-3-2010 3550.00 3600.00 3554.00
2-3-2010 3514.25 3570.00 3529.50
3-3-2010 3535.00 3599.00 3570.75
4-3-2010 3570.00 3599.00 3576.00
7-3-2010 3561.00 3595.00 3565.25
8-3-2010 3550.25 3569.75 3554.00
9-3-2010 3530.00 3560.00 3535.75 10-3-2010 3521.00 3557.75 3545.75
11-3-2010 3535.00 3560.00 3543.50
14-3-2010 3516.00 3549.00 3517.50
15-3-2010 3455.00 3520.00 3490.75
16-3-2010 3499.00 3560.00 3551.75
18-3-2010 3551.00 3574.00 3560.50
21-3-2010 3553.50 3580.00 3570.25
22-3-2011 3555.00 3595.00 3585.50
23-3-2012 3579.00 3699.00 3593.25
24-3-2013 3636.00 3685.00 3672.00
25-3-2014 3632.00 3689.00 3642.50
28-3-2015 3585.00 3646.50 3592.75
29-3-2016 3570.00 3610.00 3584.00 30-3-2017 3573.00 3634.00 3600.75
31-3-2018 3571.00 3610.00 3600.75
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W eekly return
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week
31-1-2009 7-2-2010 14-2-2010 22-2-2010 28-2-2010 7-3-2010 14-3-2010 21-3-20
Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Retur
1 ACI Limited -0.18% 0.25% 0.73% -2.14% 1.33% -1.50% 2.08% 0.16%
2 ACI Formulations Limited -4.09% -0.06% -1.32% -1.00% 1.88% -2.39% 1.45% 0.34%
3 Ambee Pharma -2.95% -5.14% 0.59% -1.83% 6.67% -2.65% -0.44% 9.00%
4 Bangla Process 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Beximco Pharma -5.78% 0.94% -0.82% -0.94% 1.62% -1.41% 2.37% 4.51%
6 Beximco Synthetics -5.73% -1.95% -1.21% -1.10% 0.21% -2.42% 2.09% 1.67%
7 Glaxo SmithKline -2.93% -14.23% 4.30% 0.34% -3.25% 1.93% 3.36% -4.03%
8 The Ibn Sina -1.58% -0.42% -1.72% -1.09% 1.29% -0.75% 3.05% -1.52%
9 Imam Button -4.82% -5.44% 0.29% -1.31% 0.10% -2.17% 0.32% 23.05%
10 Keya Cosmetics 0.41% 5.94% 14.37% -3.82% 2.53% -4.65% 6.47% -2.90%
11 Keya Detergent 2.69% 7.56% 9.50% -1.95% 5.03% 4.01% 6.95% -3.97%
12 Kohinoor Chemicals 0.87% -5.17% -4.00% -2.94% -0.98% -6.40% 0.00% 15.79%
13 Libra Inf usions Limited -8.40% -4.66% -3.31% 0.57% -4.26% -5.99% -0.90% 7.96%
14 Marico Bangladesh Limited -2.32% 0.79% -5.20% 6.09% -0.28% -5.38% 0.95% 2.40%15 Orion Inf usion -6.59% -5.48% 0.19% -3.38% -1.30% -3.43% 5.59% 10.22%
16 Pharma Aids -6.58% -2.56% -2.77% -5.91% 1.19% -0.02% 2.58% 1.74%
17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. -9.16% -5.32% 4.48% -0.10% -5.62% -6.98% 7.33% 9.27%
18 Renata Ltd. -2.35% -5.44% 0.30% -1.91% -4.61% -1.13% 0.41% 3.56%
19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 1.44% 1.31% -1.91% 0.10% -0.56% -0.61% 1.22% 2.02%
20 Therapeutics -9.13% -3.40% -4.98% -0.39% -1.57% -0.15% 0.15% 4.35%
INDUSTRY -3.36% -2.12% 0.38% -1.13% -0.03% -2.11% 2.25% 4.18%
INDUSTRY (GM )
DSE Gen Index 1.25% 2.65% 0.27% 1.08% 1.45% -1.83% 0.62% 1.26%
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7. Reference
y Dhaka Stock Exchange, www.dsebd.org
y Bangladesh Bank, www.bangladesh-bank.org
y http://www.investopedia.com
y http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki
y www.tomorrowleaders .com
y http://www.thedailystar.net
y http://bangladesheconomy.wordpress.com