expected value: orchestrating understanding presentation at palm springs 11/6/15 jim...
TRANSCRIPT
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EXPECTED VALUE:ORCHESTRATING UNDERSTANDING
Presentation at Palm Springs 11/6/15
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Statistical Inference is Irrefutable!
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Take a minute to think about, and then be ready to share with the others at your table:
Name School District Something you really like about the
Probability and Statistics in the California CCS-Math
One thing you hope to learn today
Introductions
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Deepen understanding of expected value – looking at what it means, not the formula for computing it
Engage in hands-on classroom activities designed to develop conceptual understanding of expected value Special thanks to Sherry Fraser and the
other authors of the Interactive Mathematics Program
Workshop Goals
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ATP Administrator Training - Module 1 – MS/HS Math
Workshop Norms
1. Bring and assume best intentions.
2. Step up, step back.
3. Be respectful, and solutions oriented.
4. Turn off (or mute) electronic devices.
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Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) Report
Statistical problem solving is an investigative process that involves four components:
I Formulate Questions– clarify the problem at hand– formulate one (or more) questions that can be answered
with dataII Collect Data
– design a plan to collect appropriate data– employ the plan to collect the data
III Analyze Data– select appropriate graphical and numerical methods– use these methods to analyze the data
IV Interpret Results– interpret the analysis– relate the interpretation to the original question
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Mathematical Modeling
• What is mathematical modeling?• “Modeling is the process of choosing and using
appropriate mathematics and statistics to analyze empirical situations, to understand them better, and to improve decisions.”
• Process:▫ Identify variables and select those that are essential▫ Formulate a model to describe the relationships▫ Analyze and perform operations to draw conclusions▫ Interpret results in the light of the context▫ Validate the conclusions▫ Report on the conclusions and reasoning behind themImportance of Probability and Statistics in K-12 Mathematics
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Connecting Math Across Grade Levels#
OF
PEO
PLE
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
LENGTH OF CUBIT (CM)
| | | | | | | | | | 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
Grades 3-5
Grades 6-8
High School
Mean: 39.3 cmStandard Deviation: 2.2 cm
Importance of Probability and Statistics in K-12 Mathematics
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Access and Equity
• The study of statistics offers opportunities for Culturally Responsive Instruction by allowing students to collect and analyze real-world data relevant to their lives
• The study of statistics requires teachers to attend to issues of language through– Reading– Writing– Listening– Speaking
Importance of Probability and Statistics in K-12 Mathematics
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Agreeing with Arthur Benjamin
Brief TED talk by Arthur Benjamin:
Arthur Benjamin- Teach statistics before calculus! - Talk Video - TED.com[via torchbrowser.com].flv
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Notice and Wonder
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Statistical Reasoning Process
Questions
Collect Data
Analyze Interpret
Is this a standard deck of cards?
Pick one card at a time with replacement and record the results.
Calculate the probabilities
Use the probability to draw your conclusion
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Pick a Card!
X P(X) Interpretation
Black card
0.5 No big deal
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Pick a Card!
X P(X) Interpretation
Black card
0.5 No big deal
2nd Black 0.25 Still no big deal
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Pick a Card!
X P(X) Interpretation
Black card
0.5 No big deal
2nd Black 0.25 Still no big deal
3rd Black 0.125
A little strange, but not unreasonable
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Pick a Card!
X P(X) InterpretationBlack card
0.5 No big deal
2nd Black 0.25 Still no big deal
3rd Black 0.125A little strange, but not unreasonable
4th Black 0.0625Very strange, we wonder, but it’s possible
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Pick a Card!
X P(X) InterpretationBlack card
0.5 No big deal
2nd Black 0.25 Still no big deal
3rd Black 0.125A little strange, but not unreasonable
4th Black 0.0625Very strange, we wonder, but it’s possible
5th Black0.0312
5We want to check the deck!!
The 5% threshold in Statistics is not arbitrary!
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Never Tell An Answer
Please remember the enormous responsibility we all have as learners not to spoil anybody else’s fun.
The quickest way to spoil someone else’s fun is to tell them an answer before they have a chance to discover it themselves.
Susan Pirie
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Events With Different Values
Do “Rug Games” What are we using to compute probabilities?
Now do “Pointed Rugs” How has the previous problem been changed?
Do “Spinner Give and Take” How are “Pointed Rugs” and “Spinner Give
and Take” the same? How are they different? How could “Spinner Give and Take” be
changed to make it “fair”? What makes a game of chance “fair”?
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Expected Value
“One-and-One” Who can explain a “one-and-one” situation in
basketball? What is your intuition about the number of
points Terry will make for her team per one-and-one situation in the long run?
Working in groups of 3, at most 4, complete 50 simulations of a “one-and-one” with Terry shooting, and use your data to complete “A Sixty-Percent Solution”
Now create an area model to develop a theoretical analysis of the situation. How many points per situation for Terry in the long run?
From the Interactive Mathematics Program: Year 1, The Game of Pig. Copyright © 2009 by IMP, Inc.Used by permission of the publisher, It's About Time, www.iat.com.
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Conditional Probability
P(A|B) = PB(A) is the probability of A occurring given that B has occurred.
Example: What is the probability that you will cough at some
point today? What is the probability that you will cough at some
point today if you have a cold? Roll a pair of dice, die G and die H
What is the probability that G = 2? What is the probability that G = 2 given that G+H≤5?
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Conditional Probability
Work in groups of 3 or 4, and roll a pair of dice (different colors, G and H) 50 times, and record the values of G and G+H Use your results to calculate an experimental
and Now create an area model and complete the
theoretical analysis: What is ? What is What is ? What is
Hence the formula:
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What Have We Done?
Begin with experiences to build a conceptual understanding
Build from there to the formal mathematics
Allow for student agency and authority
???
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Evaluations
Thank you for attending this section Please take a moment to provide
feedback on the session per the next two slides
Suggestions for improvement are welcomed!
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