Experiences from the Canterbury Earthquakes:Resilience LessonsResilience Lessons

for Business and Institutions

Presentation to EPICC Forum, VancouverDave Brunsdon

db@kestrel.co.nz

Presentation to EPICC Forum, Vancouver

Presentation O tlinePresentation Outline

• The Earthquakes and their Impacts• Response & Recovery Issues for• Response & Recovery Issues for

Business• Current Situation & Challenges• Current Situation & Challenges• Preliminary Results from Resilience

S f B iSurvey of Business• Questions and Discussion

Th C t bTh C t bThe Canterbury The Canterbury Earthq akes andEarthq akes andEarthquakes and Earthquakes and

their Impactstheir Impactstheir Impactstheir Impacts

Daylight in ChristchurchChristchurch

Saturday 4 September

Boxing Day AftershockAftershock

12:51pm Tuesday 22 February12:51pm Tuesday 22 February

Canterbury Earthquakes: The numbersCanterbury Earthquakes: The numbers

4 September 2010 22 February 2011• 7.1 Richter• VIII on the Mercalli scale• PGA (Peak ground 

l )

• 6.3 Richter• X on the Mercalli scale• PGA (Peak ground

acceleration) = 1.3• 10 km deep, 30 km dist• 30,000 tons liquefaction/silt

acceleration) = 2.2• 5 km deep, 10 km dist• 380,000 tonnes liquefaction/silt

• Fatalities = 0• CBD cordoned for 1 week• Dozens of buildings destroyed, 

hi i f

• Fatalities = 181• CBD cordoned for 4‐25 weeks• Hundreds of buildings destroyed 

b dl d d lchimneys gone, infrastructure damaged

• Cost to rebuild = $4‐6 B

or badly damaged, plus infrastructure!

• Cost to rebuild = $20‐30 B

Observed Liquefaction Overview Map

LegendAreas of observed liquefaction

Land damage from the 4 September 2010 EventLand damage from the 4 September 2010 Event

Observed Liquefaction Overview Map

LegendAreas of observed liquefaction

Land damage from the 22 February 2011 EventLand damage from the 22 February 2011 Event

CTV BuildingCTV Building

19

CTV BuildingCTV Building

CTV Building

22

PGC Building

23

Hotel Grand ChancellorHotel Grand Chancellor

24

25

Heritage BuildingsHeritage Buildings

IInfrastructurenfrastructure• Wastewater – treatment plant seriously

affected; repairing/ rebuilding deep mains ; p g g phighly complex

• Stormwater – regrading of low level mains g gplus river level rise

• Water – bores (wells) affected, with some reservoirs, plus older A/C mains

• Electricity – heavy damage to 66kV underground cables

• Telcos affected by loss of building-mounted ll i l d li icell sites, plus demolition processes

• Local roading surface levels badly affected

Response and RecoveryResponse and RecoveryResponse and Recovery Response and Recovery Issues for BusinessIssues for Business

R id A t Pl dRapid Assessment PlacardsBased on ATC-20

• INSPECTED: No restriction on Use or Occupancy

• RESTRICTED USE: No entry except on essential business

UNSAFE D N t t

37

• UNSAFE: Do Not enter or occupy

Building Evaluation Data TotalsAs at 0900 4 April 2011As at 0900 4 April 2011

Red Yellow Green Total inspectedp

Commercial 977 1,093 3,221 5,291CBD (4 Aves) 1,058 1005 2,253 4,316Residential 1 776 Not recorded Not recorded 60 951Residential 1,776 Not recorded Not recorded 60,951Heritage 377 Not recorded Not recorded 1,086

T t l t t d 66 242 (b i th t t l fTotal assessments entered 66,242 (being the total of Commercial and Residential zoned buildings in Christchurch).)

Light Search and Rescue Teams visited a further 72,000 houses in lesser affected areashouses in lesser affected areas.

Operation Cordon & pAccess

• 22kms of fencing• 22kms of fencing

• Inner city cordon

O t (4 )• Outer (4 avenues) cordon

• Contractor access• Contractor access

• Business owner accessaccess

• Resident access

Operation Demolition

• 129 buildings approved by National Controller for demolition

• 300+ buildings within CBD to demolish

• 10,000+ residential properties to demolish

• 2.5m tonnes demolition debris to dispose of at Burwood Landfill, Lyttelton Port and Kate V llValley

• Focus on sustainable debris management• Crushing• Crushing• Reuse for roads• Compacting

Canterbury Earthquake Recovery A th itAuthority

Key Elements of CERA Act (came into force 18 April)

• Recovery strategy for reconstruction and recovery of greater Christchurch– Draft within 9 months of the Act

• Recovery plans for all or part of greater y p p gChristchurch– Includes a specific plan for the CBD, within 9 p p ,

months of the Act

Key Elements of CERA Act (2)Key Elements of CERA Act (2)

• CERA Chief Executive given powers to:• CERA Chief Executive given powers to:– Gather and disseminate information;

commission reports and conductcommission reports and conduct investigations

– Require any owner to have a structural surveyRequire any owner to have a structural survey– Enter premises– Carry out or commission worksCarry out or commission works

• Eg demolition, alterations, construction

Some Issues for BusinessSome Issues for Business

•When can I access my tenancy?

•Wh I b ildi ?•When can I see my building?

•What should I tell my staff?y

•What should I tell my insurers?

•What happens when my business interruption cover runs out?p

Current Situation Current Situation and Challengesand Challenges

Demolition and Rubble DisposalDemolition and Rubble Disposal

• Resolving the difficulties between• Resolving the difficulties between owners, insurers and councils

• Including how to handle otherwise• Including how to handle otherwise undamaged neighbouring buildingsK i t l t i k t• Keeping costs close to previous market rates

InsuranceInsurance

• NZ has one of the highest levels of• NZ has one of the highest levels of coverage for earthquake peril– Incl the only cover of land damage (via– Incl. the only cover of land damage (via

Govt’s Earthquake Commission scheme)• The recovery is being funded by• The recovery is being funded by

international reinsurersClaims settlement is the current focus now– Claims settlement is the current focus now, with little scope for improved resilience for future underwritingfuture underwriting

Heightened Short-term Seismicityg y• Major earthquakes lead to heightened

local seismicitylocal seismicity– The short-term probability of Mag 6 in the

vicinity of Christchurch is 6% in one year (cfvicinity of Christchurch is 6% in one year (cf. 0.06% previously/ normally)

• The seismic design coefficient has been• The seismic design coefficient has been increased by almost 40% over next 50 yearsyears

• The probability of damaging liquefaction i tibl il i th t 50in susceptible soils in the next 50 years is 50%

Earthquake Support Subsidy• A payment by Govt for employers to assist

them with paying their employees and for thethem with paying their employees and for the self-employed.

• The subsidy was paid for up to 6 weeks fromThe subsidy was paid for up to 6 weeks from 22 February 2011 at the rate of $500 per week per fulltime employee (over 20 hours per week) or a rate of $300 per week per part time employee (under 20 hours per week).

• To qualify, an employer must be unable to operate due to damage or the cordon. Th l b ll b i th t• They can also be a small business that can operate but has a significant loss of trade

Earthquake Job Loss Cover• A payment for employees who have lost their

jobs due to the earthquake or are unable tojobs due to the earthquake or are unable to contact their employer and are not working or being paid.

• Job Loss Cover is a weekly payment of $400 net for fulltime (over 20 hours per week) and $240 net for part time (under 20 hours per week)net for part time (under 20 hours per week) employees for up to six weeks from 22 February 2011.

• Individuals are unable to qualify for this payment if they are receiving a benefit, ACC weekly

ti Ci il D f P t fcompensation, or a Civil Defence Payment for loss of livelihood.

Response and RecoveryResponse and RecoveryResponse and Recovery Response and Recovery Issues for BusinessIssues for Business

Studying the Resilience of OrganisationsStudying the Resilience of Organisations 

Resilient Organisations Research Programme

Dr John Vargo and Dr Erica SevilleDr Erica Seville

University of Canterburywww.resorgs.org.nz

Organisational Impacts & Recovery: 4 September Canterbury Earthquake4 September Canterbury Earthquake

Hlekiwe Kachali Joanne Stevenson Zach WhitmanHlekiwe Kachali, Joanne Stevenson, Zach WhitmanErica Seville, John Vargo, Tom Wilson

Resilient Organisations Research Programmeg gwww.resorgs.org.nz

Research ObjectivesResearch Objectives

•Understand relationship between pre-earthquake performance and organisations’ response in a crisis

Sectoral

•Understand how organisations utilise networks and relationships in their recovery & how an organisation’s spatial context affects its recovery

Spatial

•Resilience and recovery of rural i ti i t d b lti lRural organisations impacted by multiple

hazards Rural

Who & WhereWho & Where• Hospitality • Christchurch CBD• Fast Moving Consumer

Goods (FMCG)• Trucking

• Kaiapoi CBD• Rural Farm

R l N F• Trucking• ICT • Building Supplies

• Rural Non-Farm

• Lifelines

Survey 1Survey 1

• Capture perishableCapture perishable data– ImpactsImpacts– Perceptions

• Begin a dialogue• Begin a dialogue with organisations B li ili• Baseline resilience data

Sample AreasSample Areas

Christchurch CBD Sample AreaChristchurch CBD Sample Area

Kaiapoi CBD Sample AreaKaiapoi CBD Sample Area

Response Ratesp

Sector/Location # Surveys Sent # Responses Response Rate

ChCh CBD 73 33 45%

Kaiapoi CBD 131 40 31%

FMCG – Dairies 25 6 24%24%

FMCG –Producers 25 14 56%

FMCG – Supermarkets 36 22 61%

Hospitality 100 32 32%Hospitality 100 32 32%

ICT 100 55 55%

Building Supplies 98 30 31%

Lif li 43 24Lifelines 43 24 56%

Trucking 99 38 38%

Rural 305 72 24%

Grand Total 1035 366 35%

Organisations Sampledg p

•Number of full-time employeesp y• Median 5 (range 0 – 1500)

• Established in CanterburyEstablished in Canterbury• Median 19 years operating• Median 10 years operating in current location

•80% of all organisations sampled indicated that they hadsampled indicated that they had been affected by the earthquake

How revenue changed following the earthquakeg g q

100

60

70

80

90

ations 

30

40

50

60

% of O

rgan

isa

Decreased

Increased

No change

0

10

20

Biggest Challenges for Organisations in the Aftermath of the Earthquakethe Earthquake

Have you been forced to make any staff redundant/hired any staff in the aftermath of the earthquake?in the aftermath of the earthquake?

100%

70%

80%

90%

ations

40%

50%

60%

ted Organ

isa

% Fired

% Hired

% No Change

10%

20%

30%

Affect

0%

The Big PictureThe Big Picture

Winners and losers• Winners and losers

• Some highly predictable impacts butSome highly predictable impacts but

also some that are at first glance

counter-intuitive

• The need for good baseline data to

effectively target supporteffectively target support

Top 5 Mitigating Factorsp g g

1 ll d d d ll b l b ld1. Well designed and well built buildings

2. Relationship with staff2. Relationship with staff

3. Critical lifeline services restored quickly

or not interrupted

4 A il bl h di4. Available cash or credit

5. Relationship with suppliers5. Relationship with suppliers

Future WorkFuture Work

S r e 2 Ma 2011• Survey 2 - May 2011

• Interviews – Throughout 2011Interviews Throughout 2011

• Survey 3 – February2012

What What Are the Are the RealRealB i C ti itB i C ti itBusiness Continuity Business Continuity Issues and Lessons?Issues and Lessons?Issues and Lessons?Issues and Lessons?

Are there any new lessons?Are there any new lessons?

1. Access to an Operating Base1. Access to an Operating Base

• Have a clearly identified alternative• Have a clearly identified alternative operating base

• Have a structural engineer available to• Have a structural engineer available to check out your primary and alternate basesbases

• IT Disaster Recovery - make sure you h ff it ( )have offsite server(s)

2. Access to People2. Access to People

• Access to relevant contact lists and• Access to relevant contact lists and databases

after hours (eg Call tree/ txt tree)– after hours (eg. Call tree/ txt tree)– If denied access to your premises

• R i l f iti l ti iti• Resourcing plan for critical activities•Welfare plan to support those affected

by the event

3. Understanding Risk Transfer3. Understanding Risk Transfer

• Understand the scope and coverage of• Understand the scope and coverage of your insurance policies

• Especially the limitations of Business• Especially the limitations of Business Interruption coverK th l ti t d t• Keep the valuations up to date

4. Earthquake Specific Issues4. Earthquake Specific Issues

• Have a structural engineer available to check out your primary and alternatecheck out your primary and alternate bases

•What does a Yellow Placard mean?•What should we do if our building has a

Red Placard on it?

5. Overall Message5. Overall Message

• Business Continuity Management• Business Continuity Management needs to be worked at

Especially if you are an agency delivering– Especially if you are an agency delivering community services

Your Questions andYour Questions andYour Questions and Your Questions and DiscussionDiscussionDiscussionDiscussion

Experiences from the Canterbury Earthquakes:Resilience LessonsResilience Lessons

for Business and Institutions

Presentation to EPICC Forum, VancouverDave Brunsdon

db@kestrel.co.nz

Presentation to EPICC Forum, Vancouver

A Resilience Model

A definition of resilience: The ability to survive a crisis and thrive 

Planning Dimension  Adaptive Capacity Dimension

yin a world of uncertainty

Recovery priorities Leadership 

Proactive posture Decision making

Planning strategies Innovation and creativity

Participation in exercises Situation monitoring and tireporting

External resources Information and knowledge

Staff involvementStaff involvement

Minimisation of silos

Internal resources

Crucial Factors in Resilience d Rand Recovery

Situation

d

Situation AwarenessIntegrative

LeadershipGrounded

Plan

ned

Alert Inspiring

P

Structured

Decision Making

CultureDisciplined

Responsive Innovative

Adaptive

Styles of ResilienceStyles of Resilienceh

High

anne

dPla

Low

AdaptiveLow High

Resilient Organisations Research Programme

www.resorgs.org.nzg g