Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

Roham AbtahiNat’l Hydrologic Information Coordinator

OCWWS HSD

Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

How is LRO produced?

RFCs1. Run Ensemble Streamflow

Prediction (ESP)2. Run script which parses CS data

by % of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stage

3. Transmits output to NIDS, who populates national level AHPS “Experimental Long Range River Flood Risk” tab

Issuance Timing4. RFCs are required to transmit 3

month outlooks by the 28th of each month.

5. At 23z on the 28th, the national map switches to the next three month valid time

6. Can send updates as often as they like, but updates are not required

WFO Hydro Program Manager Role

WFOs1. Check your local HSA to make sure

long range probs look reasonable

2. Look for inconsistencies between color of forecast point, and actual exceedance graph of that point

What do I do if I find an error?3. Call RFC and let them know – most

errors will be solved at this level

4. Contact your Regional HPM

5. Submit a TOC ticket (rare case)toc.nwstg@noaa.gov

FYIRaw national level compilation of RFC probability data

water.weather.gov/ahps/download.php

Questions?

Alaska Region: robin.radlein@noaa.gov

Western Region: mike.schaffner@noaa.gov

Central Region: wendy.pearson@noaa.gov

Southern Region: tracy.clark@noaa.gov

Eastern Region: laurie.Hogan@noaa.gov

Pacific Region: No long range forecast points

Me: roham.abtahi@noaa.gov 301-713-0006 ext 150