experimenting with ‘fun;’ ‘fun’ with experimenting what the (von) hayek do you think...
TRANSCRIPT
Experimenting with ‘Fun;’‘Fun’ With Experimenting
What the (Von) Hayek Do You Think You’re Doing?
The Content of the Audienceis more important thanThe Content of the Talk
This Talk is About….
An Effective/Affective Innovation Methodology
Emphasizing Competitive Experimental Designs
- 5X5 X-Teams
Not ‘Publish or Perish’ but…
“Demo or Die”
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‘Demo or Die’ Dynamism
- What else…?- Who else…?- How else…
- Why not…?
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I research/advise/explore…
‘Behavioral Economics’ of Experimentation & Innovation in
Organizations
Via their Models, Prototypes & Simulations
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Games
Noun & Verb
Design Competition
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Bruneschelli’s Dome 1419
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X-Prize
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ARDC 6.270
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DeKa’s FIRST
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What kind of…
Design Competition?
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Combining Affect & Effect
Lightweight;Heavy Impact;
“Fun”
My ‘Unit of Design/Competition’
From
‘Playing with Prototypes’ to
Proposing “Experiments Portfolios”
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Why ‘Experiments’?
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Customer Focus? A Failed 80/20/20
You will be the
CEO
You don’t have to be the CEO to be the
Chief
Experiments
Officer
The CEO’s Deliverable:
A Portfolio of Testable Business Hypotheses
that Matter!
A Hypothesis
• Frames a Challenge• An Organizing Principle for Convening ‘Teams’• Can Identify, Incorporate & Influence Adoption
Experiment
A Structured, Easily Replicable Process
to ‘Test a Hypothesis’
Designing The X-Teams
5X5
5X5 ‘X’-Teams
• 5 People/5 Days • 5 Experiments
• $5,000• 5 Weeks
•$5,000,000 [Growth or Savings]
X Teams: [Liberating Constraints]
• Cross-functional/Well-Regarded Talent• Hard Deadline/Defined Deliverable/No Budget
• Self-Managing • Present to Top Management
• Peer & Executive Review
The X-Format
• What’s the Perceived Problem/Issue/Opportunity?• Why does It matter?
• What’s the Business Hypothesis?• What Experiment(s) conform to the 5X5 criteria?
Make Compelling Business Hypotheses Simple &
Simple Business Hypotheses Compelling
Seek to Perform Simple Experiments Fast
Seek to Perform Fast Experiments Cheap
Seek Results That Speak for Themselves
“Fun-damental Value(s)”
Be “Warren Buffetts” of Experimentation
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ideology:
Do you experiment to extend your values or to challenge them?
The Design “Game”
Competing Hypotheses&
Competing Experiments&
Competing Portfolios&
Competing Presentations
SeatMaps Contiguous Seating N>2
Gedankenexperiment: What text, call or site should an in-store customer make?
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Amazon Recommendation Engine [Greg Linden]
I hacked up a prototype. On a test site, I modified the Amazon.com shopping cart page to recommend other items you might enjoy adding to your cart. Looked pretty good
to me. I started showing it around…
At this point, I was told I was forbidden to work on this any further. I was told Amazon was not ready to launch this feature. It should have stopped there. Instead, I
prepared the feature for an online test. I believed in shopping cart recommendations. I wanted to measure the sales impact….
5X5 X-teams
Lessons Learned
Because when we stop, it feels good…
Lessons Learned
Professional Development
The Most Influential and Product of Simple, Fast, Cheap and Compelling Experiments
Isn’t ‘The Results,’ It’s ‘The Experimenters’
5X5 X-teams
Crafting a ‘Good’ Business Hypothesis is Hard
(This surprised me…!)
5X5 X-teams
Articulating Their X-Portfolio Philosophy Proved Challenging
Lessons Learned
A Fantastic Window for Senior Leadership
5X5 X-teams
Portfolio ‘Gaps’ As Revealing as Portfolio Priorities
The X-Heuristic
If You Can’t Afford to Have ‘It’ Fail,‘It’ Isn’t an Experiment
What Experiments Aren’t:
Validation
Oxymoron Alert
PassionatelyDispassionate
X-Team Issues:
• ‘Single-Idea’ Zealots• Frustration Follow-up
• Top Management Challenged• ‘Put Up or Shut Up’ Upsets
• ‘Analysis’ Culture(s) Get Nervous
Lessons Learned/ Design vs Develop vs Deploy
50%
We’re not ‘smarter’ or ‘better’ but...
The reason why we are on a higher imaginative level is not because we have finer imaginations, but because we have
better instruments. In science, the most important thing that has happened over
the last forty years is the advance in instrumental design.
A.N. Whitehead
An Enquiry Concerning the Principles of Natural Knowledge
Cambridge University Press 1925
Innovation Economics
The “80/20/20 Vision”
How can we model/capture:
•80% of the “Necessary” Information in• 20% of the Time; and with
•20% of the Resources