expert group meeting to review the “handbook on sut: compilation, application and good...
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Expert Group Meeting to review the “Handbook on SUT: Compilation, Application and Good Practices”. Chapter 7: Balancing supply and uses. Economic Statistics and National Accounts Section African Centre for Statistics (ACS) United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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African Centre for Statistics
United Nations Economic Commission for AfricaUnited Nations Economic Commission for Africa
Expert Group Meeting to review the “Handbook on SUT: Compilation, Application and Good Practices”
Economic Statistics and National Accounts SectionAfrican Centre for Statistics (ACS)
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia24-28 October 2011
Chapter 7: Balancing supply and uses
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African Centre for Statistics
Outline of the presentation
• Example 1 (Manual balancing)
• Example 2 (Manual balancing)
• Driving factors (of the manual balancing)
• Automatic balancing: RAS Method
• Comments
• Questions for discussions
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African Centre for Statistics
Example 1: garments
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African Centre for Statistics
Example 1: Firm figures
• The compiler decides on firm figures:– Imports and exports
– Taxes and subsidies
– Government and NPISH consumption expenditure
– Gross fixed capital formation
– Changes in inventories
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African Centre for Statistics
Example 1: Data sources
• The compiler analyses data sources to identify weaknesses :– For households expenditures, the coverage of the survey can be
criticized: “Decision to reduce it of 4%”
– For domestic production, the survey was made three years ago and the coverage can be criticized (because of the type of enterprises producing this type of products): “ Domestic production becomes a balancing item”
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African Centre for Statistics
Example 1: Balanced table
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African Centre for Statistics
Example 2: Advertising services
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African Centre for Statistics
Example 2: Analysis
• VAT are paid by HH: Estimation of HH expenditures is possible– HH expenditure = (Tax amount / % VAT) + Tax
amount
• Government does not usually purchase this type of products: – Enterprises must have purchased these products as
intermediate consumption
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African Centre for Statistics
Example 2: Balanced table
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African Centre for Statistics
Driving factors
• Identification of consistent figures to define pivots
• Identification of the weaknesses of the data sources: adjustments needed
• Experts opinion and good knowledge of the economy are important
• Type of products under analysis will help also
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African Centre for Statistics
Chapter 7: Automatic balancing
• Example of balancing through the usage of the RAS method
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African Centre for Statistics
RAS Method: assumptions
• There exist an input-output table estimated from full-data for a past year.
• Row and column sums for the input-output table of the present year are available.– The content of the matrix is empty.
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African Centre for Statistics
RAS method: objectives
• Objective: finding a set of multipliers to adjust the columns and the rows so that the sum of the cells of the adjusted matrix will be equal to the required rows and columns.
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African Centre for Statistics
RAS Method: mathematical background
• A(1) =
• A (1) =
Coefficient matrix of the benchmark
year
Matrix of multipliers: substitution
effects
Matrix of multipliers: fabrication
effects
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African Centre for Statistics
RAS method: example (1/5)
• Benchmark year matrix
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African Centre for Statistics
RAS method: example (2/5)
• Year 1Coefficient matrix of the
benchmark year
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African Centre for Statistics
RAS method: example (3/5)
• First iteration
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African Centre for Statistics
RAS method: example (4/5)
• Adjustment resulting from the 1st iteration
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African Centre for Statistics
RAS method: example (5/5)
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African Centre for Statistics
Comments
• Presentation of the RAS method is not easily accessible• For the manual balancing, it would be good to list the
key factors which do give orientations to the SUT compilers
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African Centre for Statistics
Questions for discussions
• What are the missing elements in the list of key factors used for manual balancing?
• What are the advantages, the disadvantages resulting from the usage of the RAS method?
• What is the bias resulting from the usage of the RAS method?
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African Centre for Statistics
United Nations Economic Commission for AfricaUnited Nations Economic Commission for Africa
Thank you
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