expert selections - churchill downs · 2017-11-17 · #10 pont du gard – recent turf run even...

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JOE KRISTUFEK Racing Analyst @JoeyDaKRacing EXPERT SELECTIONS Joe Kristufek returns for his third season as Churchill Downs’ paddock host. He has an extensive background in horse racing and wagering and has been instrumental in the creation of and hosting fan education programs at the premier racing events at racetracks coast to coast. A native of Chicago, Kristufek is the morning-line odds maker for several racetracks, including his hometown Arlington Park. He is also the racing writer and handicapper for the Daily Herald newspaper in Arlington Heights, IL. Joe is well recognized for his diversified handicapping skills and suggested wagering tactics and he loves interacting with all racing fans - from beginner to expert. ©2017 Equibase Company LLC and Churchill Downs, Inc. All rights reserved. Data provided or compiled by Equibase Company LLC generally are accurate, but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received from others, mistakes in processing and other causes. Equibase Company LLC and Churchill Downs, Inc. disclaim responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors but would appreciate having any such errors called to their attention. Selections subject to change due to scratches, off the turf, etc. Tune in to the twinspires.com pre-race paddock show for the most up to the minute information. Check program numbers for accuracy. Joe’s '17 Top Pick Stats through Nov.12 Races Wins 2nd 3rd Win% WPS% 611 174 97 84 28.5% 58.1% Saturday, November 18, 2017 Race 1 #6 Over Rider – Sharp win two back; fits like a glove. #5 Dirty Diamonddeeds – Earned hike off debut score. #2 Bye Crazy Eyes – Placement makes sense; lures Corey. #1 United Patriot – On the improve for Mr. Brad; respect. Joe’s SELECTIONS – 6/5-2-1/4-3 Race 2 #1 Big Exchange – Flourished on fast dirt in last; can repeat. #6 Private Time – Stepped up his game; blinkers added. #5 Private Party – Speed has fun on the lead; kept company. #4 Ceeky – Weight break helps; discouraged chasing pace. Joe’s SELECTIONS – 1/6/5-4-3-2 Race 3 #3 Revenant One – Debut win was more of a public workout. #4 Fort Fortitude – Also overwhelmed maidens in first try. #7 Royal Asset – Established pace presser finds clear sailing. #1 Gridiron Cat – Fits like a glove off the bench; gimmicks. Joe’s SELECTIONS – 3-4-7-1/5-2-6 Race 4 #10 Pont Du Gard – Recent turf run even better than it looks. #8 Tap Daddy – Left out of Breeders’ Cup; the one to beat. #3 Nanoosh – Flourished in grass debut; promising future. #12 Ebben – Has run in tough luck; doing a rain dance. Joe’s SELECTIONS – 10-8/3-12-2-7-4-9-1-11-6-5 Race 5 – The Bet on Sunshine #1 Le Ken – Argentinan wild card a viable alternative? #8 Limousine Liberal – Has owned CD sprint stakes in ’17. #7 Uncontested – Found his niche and still has upside. #2 The Truth Of Else – Deep closer flies by beaten foes. Joe’s SELECTIONS – 1-8/7-2/6-3-4-5 Race 6 #12 Last Drop of Wine – Big drop off respectable efforts. #11 Birdies Honor – Competitive with better; good as any. #5 Code Eleven Eleven – Hung out to dry in debut; improves. #1 Tre Lee Divine – Finished with energy in first try; price. Joe’s SELECTIONS – 12-11-5-1/6-3-14-10-9-7-2

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Page 1: EXPERT SELECTIONS - Churchill Downs · 2017-11-17 · #10 Pont Du Gard – Recent turf run even better than it looks. #8 Tap Daddy – Left out of Breeders’ Cup; the one to beat

JOE KRISTUFEKRacing Analyst @JoeyDaKRacing

EXPERT SELECTIONS

Joe Kristufek returns for his third season as Churchill Downs’ paddock host. He has an extensive background in horse racing and wagering and has been instrumental in the creation of and hosting fan education programs at the premier racing events at racetracks coast to coast. A native of Chicago, Kristufek is the morning-line odds maker for several racetracks, including his hometown Arlington Park. He is also the racing writer and handicapper for the Daily Herald newspaper in Arlington Heights, IL. Joe is well recognized for his diversified handicapping skills and suggested wagering tactics and he loves interacting with all racing fans - from beginner to expert.

©2017 Equibase Company LLC and Churchill Downs, Inc. All rights reserved. Data provided or compiled by Equibase Company LLC generally are accurate, but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received from others, mistakes in processing and other causes. Equibase Company LLC and Churchill Downs, Inc. disclaim responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors but would appreciate having any such errors called to their attention.

Selections subject to change due to scratches, off the turf, etc. Tune in to the twinspires.com pre-race paddock show for the most up to the minute information. Check program numbers for accuracy.

Joe’s '17 Top Pick Stats through Nov.12 Races Wins 2nd 3rd Win% WPS% 611 174 97 84 28.5% 58.1% Saturday,November18,2017Race1#6OverRider–Sharpwintwoback;fitslikeaglove.#5DirtyDiamonddeeds–Earnedhikeoffdebutscore.#2ByeCrazyEyes–Placementmakessense;luresCorey.#1UnitedPatriot–OntheimproveforMr.Brad;respect.Joe’sSELECTIONS–6/5-2-1/4-3Race2#1BigExchange–Flourishedonfastdirtinlast;canrepeat.#6PrivateTime–Steppeduphisgame;blinkersadded.#5PrivateParty–Speedhasfunonthelead;keptcompany.#4Ceeky–Weightbreakhelps;discouragedchasingpace.Joe’sSELECTIONS–1/6/5-4-3-2Race3#3RevenantOne–Debutwinwasmoreofapublicworkout.#4FortFortitude–Alsooverwhelmedmaidensinfirsttry.#7RoyalAsset–Establishedpacepresserfindsclearsailing.#1GridironCat–Fitslikeagloveoffthebench;gimmicks.Joe’sSELECTIONS–3-4-7-1/5-2-6

Race4#10PontDuGard–Recentturfrunevenbetterthanitlooks.#8TapDaddy–LeftoutofBreeders’Cup;theonetobeat.#3Nanoosh–Flourishedingrassdebut;promisingfuture.#12Ebben–Hasrunintoughluck;doingaraindance.Joe’sSELECTIONS–10-8/3-12-2-7-4-9-1-11-6-5Race5–TheBetonSunshine#1LeKen–Argentinanwildcardaviablealternative?#8LimousineLiberal–HasownedCDsprintstakesin’17.#7Uncontested–Foundhisnicheandstillhasupside.#2TheTruthOfElse–Deepcloserfliesbybeatenfoes.Joe’sSELECTIONS–1-8/7-2/6-3-4-5Race6#12LastDropofWine–Bigdropoffrespectableefforts.#11BirdiesHonor–Competitivewithbetter;goodasany.#5CodeElevenEleven–Hungouttodryindebut;improves.#1TreLeeDivine–Finishedwithenergyinfirsttry;price.Joe’sSELECTIONS–12-11-5-1/6-3-14-10-9-7-2

Page 2: EXPERT SELECTIONS - Churchill Downs · 2017-11-17 · #10 Pont Du Gard – Recent turf run even better than it looks. #8 Tap Daddy – Left out of Breeders’ Cup; the one to beat

Race7#5AudaciousAngel–Betterwithblinkers;edgetorepeat.#2LikeaHaint–Speedy&game;handleshikeoffclaim.#3LadyCleopatra–Won2oflast3;ontopofhergame.#6PromisesBroken–Livinguptohername;awakens?Joe’sSELECTIONS–5-2-3-6/7-9-1-4-8Race8#5LaFeeVerte–Herspeedroutedamearned$600K;ready.#3Let’sRoll–Fantasticfamily;takesabigstepforwardhere.#12She’saGypsy–Theonetobeatonpaper;marooned?#4TizaLegacy–Herroutedamearned$225K;canimprove.Joe’sSELECTIONS–5-3-12-4/11-7-2-6-10Race9#3RingKnocker–Evenrunvs.muchbetteroffclaim;edge.#5ChampagneProblems–Verywellmanaged,Mr.Ian.#8MythicalTale–GameCDwintwoback;findsclearsailing.#1BreakingBread–Short-moneyeaterhaseyeonFG?Joe’sSELECTIONS–3-5-8-1/4-7-6-2

Race10–TheCardinalHandicap#12DonaBruja–Seriousturnoffoot;racefitsschedule.#7Beauly–Hasprovenherclass;themainthreathere.#9Linda–Gradedstakeswinneroverthiscourse;capable.#2TrickyEscape–Betterthanshelooks;fliesunderradar.Joe’sSELECTIONS–12/7-9-2/11-1-4-3-10Race11#8Neapolitan–Cutsbackanddropsintoscore;hotteam.#2DoctorLee–Knockingonthedoor;findsthecure?#7Oater–Plentyofchances;canbreakthroughoffclaim.#3PolarBear–Troubleinlonetry;watchtoteclues.Joe’sSELECTIONS–8-2-7-3/1-9

Race8:TrainerHelenPitts-BlasiisoneofthemoreunderratedhorsewomenonthebackstretchofChurchillDownsandeverytimeIseeherhorsestheylookwell.#12She’sAGypsyimpressedmeinherdebutwhenshewasdefeatedonly1¾-lengths.Inhersecondstartshebrokeastepslowbutranintocontentionandtiredtobethird.IfShe’sAGypsycanrunbacktoherdebutshecouldbetoughinthisspot.SuggestedPlay:#12She’sAGypsy

KK’sPlayoftheDayBy:KevinKerstein

@HorseRacingKK

WorkoftheDayBy:BrandonStauble

@bstaubs22

Race3:11/11-#3RevenantOnestillmovingwellwithreach,last1/4in25flat.Forvaluableinformationonmorningworkoutsandracedayanalysis,followBrandononTwitter@bstaubs22.