Cornwall's services for providers of flexibility, demand-side response and storage in the electricity sector

Experts in Flexible Energy, Excellence in Analysis

www.cornwall-insight.com

Why Cornwall?Established in 2005, Cornwall has developed a unique position in the UK energy market providing expert research, insight and intelligence to existing and potential market participants and their advisors.

We are widely regarded as the market-leader in the sector. Our services are valued by a broad range of businesses and our original research is regularly cited in the national press and frequently referenced by front bench politicians.

Why Cornwall?

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Below: Just some of our clients

PublicationsPage 8

Green Power ForecastsPage 10

Flexibility ForumPage 6

Our services

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Consultancy ServicesPage 14

Costs and Charges ForecastsPage 12

“We have found the flexibility forum really useful in what is such a fast moving market particularly with regard to regulation. The forum takes place in a relaxed but professional atmosphere and is well attended by a broad selection of market participants".

– NewStream Renewables

Flexibility Forum

F2 will allow you and your colleagues to acquire an in-depth understanding of the regulatory and policy developments creating risk and opportunities for your businesses, and will keep you informed regarding the wider market and commercial landscape in which you operate.

The forum will deliver a comprehensive analysis of all relevant key developments in government policy, code and regulatory reform and market developments that impact on its members.

F2 runs on the third Thursday, every second month, between 11am and 3pm at a venue in central London.

Who’s it for?

• Owners, operators and investors in electricity flexibility projects, such as back-up or stand-by generators

• Owners, operators and investors in electricity demand-side projects, such as load-shifting and battery storage

Building on the success of the Green Generator Group (3G), the Energy Supplier Forums (ESF), and our extensive experience of delivering consultancy assignments in the flexibility arena, Cornwall hosts the Flexibility Forum (F2). The forum was launched last June and is now approaching its first anniversary. So far we have 10 members.

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Training and Events

What does it cover?

• Developments in government policies and programmes such as the Capacity Market

• Smart/flexibility policies and interconnection, including a review of possible competitive dynamics and revenue levels

• Changes in network code rules and tariffs for transmission connected plant and embedded flexible solutions

• Changes in the balancing and settlement code and the developments in the balancing mechanism

• Developments in competition for and estimated value from balancing services

• An outlook of commissioning, closures

and mothballing across the generation fleet

• Trends in and the outlook for demand

• Recent trends and forecast developments in the wholesale, gas, coal and carbon markets and estimated forward peak and baseload electricity prices

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For further information contact Andy Pace 01603 604400 a.pace@cornwall-insight.com

Publications

Who are they for?

• Those looking for accurate and up to date information and insightful comment on sector developments

• Companies looking to future-proof their business models and forecasts

• Those looking to take advantage of early opportunities in the energy markets

What do they cover?

• Current issues facing energy market participants, including policy, regulation and company announcements

• Information on wholesale price fluctuations and the drivers behind them

• Analysis of possible future directions for the industry

Keeping up to date with rapidly moving energy markets can be a daunting task. But this need not take valuable resources away from your core business.

“Over the past 10 years Cornwall has helped staff in Ofgem keep abreast of and understand developments in the energy industry.”

– Ofgem

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Publications

Our Recommendations for you

• The Daily Bulletin – making informed business decisions depends on having the most up-to-date information. The Daily Bulletin will provide you with just that by collating the most important political, regulatory and industry developments from the previous 24 hours

• Energy Spectrum – sometimes you need help in deciphering developments in the energy market and understanding their relevance to you. Energy Spectrum offers the latest news and expert comment and is seen as an essential source of analysis and insight on developments in the British energy markets. Our flagship publication is read by over 3,000 industry experts every week

• Energy Market Bulletin – whether you are an energy executive, trader, broker or investor, the weekly Energy Market Bulletin will help you make better investment and contract decisions. It will allow you to manage your exposure to risk, improve your opportunities to hedge, and increase your visibility into wholesale energy markets. The Energy Market Bulletin service brings transparency to wholesale energy markets, this weekly report gives you the information you need to analyse and evaluate changes in the marketplace and possible impacts on your business

• The Balancing Mechanism Report – this daily report brings market participants up to speed with developments from the past 24 hours and explains likely trends over the coming day to provide decision makers with the information needed to stay prepared

“Over the past 10 years Cornwall has helped staff in Ofgem keep abreast of and understand developments in the energy industry.”

– Ofgem

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For further information contact Ali Forbes 01603 604400 a.forbes@cornwall-insight.com

Green Power

Who are they for?

• Developers looking to future-proof their business models

• Those looking for new opportunities for green generation in the energy market

• Businesses that need to stay on top of industry developments and understand how changes apply to them

What do they cover?

• Analysis and information on the changing revenue streams for green generators

• Key trends in the marketplace as well as policy and regulatory updates that affect market participants

• Insight on how the industry could change in the future

The GB power sector is undergoing unprecedented change as the market transitions towards green generation and smaller-scale sites embedded on the distribution network. Changes to network charging, government policy, and uncertainty about the future of financial incentives create barriers to low-carbon investment. But, for willing developers, the financial opportunities can be large and new technology solutions such as storage create additional ways to access the market.

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Market Intelligence

Our Recommendations for you

• Long-term Roc Forecast – understanding the Roc market can be complex and time consuming. Whether you are the project owner, an investor or a supplier involved in the Roc market it is crucial that you are able to forecast values, obligations and costs. The Long-term Roc Forecast does just this, providing a reference point for future Renewables Obligation Certificate (Roc) values, and knowledge of how the costs of the RO may impact on supply businesses and energy bills out to 2027

• Monthly Within-year Roc Forecast – putting together a trading strategy for Renewables Obligation Certificates (Rocs) can be time consuming and involve significant research, even then there is no guarantee that you are finding the best deals. The Monthly Within-year Roc Forecast will aid you in business strategy and planning by providing you with information on the value of Rocs in the current year, helping you evaluate offers received and ensure you are getting the best deal for your Rocs

• Green Power Forecast – with the number of subsidy schemes and types of agreement on offer, understanding how to get the best value for your power can be complex. The Green Power Forecast provides renewables generators and suppliers with a forecast of values for renewable projects through different routes to market. With details of PPA values as well as a quarterly assessment of competition and pricing in the renewables PPA market values, the report provides clarity to those looking sign PPAs in what can be an opaque area of the market

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For further information contact Jonny Davison

01603 604400 j.davison@cornwall-insight.com

Costs & Charges Forecasts

Who are they for?

• Those looking for clarity, insight and up to date information surrounding complex industry costs and charges

• Companies looking to maintain their business models, set customer tariffs and validate internal assumptions using accurate information

• Industry participants looking for a partner that can assist in vital day-to-day operations in the energy market

What do they cover?

• The latest issues facing energy market participants, including policy, regulatory, and market developments surrounding non-energy costs

• Detailed information, analysis, and forecast costs of renewable energy subsidy schemes, energy efficiency schemes, and transmission and distribution charges

• Insight into possible future directions of non-energy costs, both in terms of policy and industry costs

To maintain margins in an increasingly competitive market, it is crucial that you understand up to date industry driven costs and revenues. Through our unique combination of deep industry knowledge and practical experience, Cornwall can provide clarity on the impacts of industry costs on your business and your customers, as well as keep you up to date with the latest developments in an ever-changing market. Our costs and charges forecasts provide an independent assessment and can help you budget, set tariffs or validate internal assumptions.

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Market Intelligence “The team at Cornwall provide clarity and support in understanding complex issues surrounding our business, allowing us the confidence to reflect and act upon the constantly changing market climate.”

– Smartest Energy

Our Recommendations for you

• Third Party Charges Forecast – third party charges (also called non-energy or pass-through costs) account for a significant and rising proportion of final delivered energy costs. But these charges are constantly changing. The Third Party Charge Forecast will give you an indication on how these charges are likely to change over the coming five years, and how this will impact on your energy bill

• Feed-in Tariff Cost Forecast - costs associated with the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) scheme are volatile given their quarterly nature and dependence on renewables generation. As a supplier, it is crucial that you understand how these costs may change and what to pass-through to your customers. The Feed-in Tariff Cost Forecast provides you with a quarterly and annual estimate of FiT costs over the coming three years

• CfD Supplier Obligation Forecast – Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are already adding to the cost of electricity supply, and charges are set to increase in future as more projects commission. Our quarterly CfD cost forecast allows you to stay on top of key developments and budget for upcoming years

• Long-term Roc Forecast - understanding the Roc market can be complex and time consuming. Whatever your involvement in the market, it is crucial that you are able to forecast values, obligations and pass-through costs. The Long-term Roc Forecast does just this, providing a reference point for future Renewables Obligation Certificate (Roc) values, and knowledge of how the costs of the RO may impact on supply businesses and energy bills out to 2027

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For further information contact Tim Dixon

01603 604400 t.dixon@cornwall-insight.com

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Consultancy

Advice & Support

For further information contact Ben Hall 01603 604405 b.hall@cornwall-insight.com

Our energy market knowledge and expertise, utilised to provide you with a deep qualitative insight supported by quantitative analysis to help you evaluate the impacts of industry rules, regulations and trends on your clients. We can also support in areas such as due diligence and acquisitions.

“As a leading provider of flexibility services in the UK, we have found the flexibility forum invaluable in helping us keep up to date with the latest developments in this arena. The insight and data from Cornwall’s experts helps inform our business strategy and growth plans and allows us to engage with peers and other stakeholders on the challenges and opportunities that really matter. ”

– UK Power Reserve

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Exploring commercial viability of battery storage

The project was undertaken for a renewables generator exploring options to install battery storage at or adjacent to solar PV sites. It analysed the various revenue streams in terms of eligibility, scheme interactions, frequency of use, revenue available, historic and future value and regulatory risk. A summary model and presentation were provided to the client to help with developing its business case for battery storage.

Network charging and supplier obligations for battery storageThis project was undertaken for a large European utility to explore how the current GB market rules for network charging and supplier obligations would impact on battery storage installations.

Value of flexible demand-side responseThis project was carried out for an investor who wanted to better understand new innovations in the sector. A description of the revenues, rights, and obligations on different types of flexible parties in the market was provided in a report and presentation. An estimation of the value of the market was created. An analysis of the competitive landscape of the Enhanced Frequency Response tender was undertaken.

Modelling flexible generation revenue

Cornwall developed a model to estimate the potential revenues available to a flexible generation over a 10 year horizon for a large merchant developer. The revenue streams included wholesale power, ancillary services and embedded benefits. The results were presented to the business development team and are being used to help formulate their business case.

Due diligence of wind generation, PPA, and retail businessesThe project was undertaken on the direct approach of a client shortlisted as the potential acquirer of a utility. Cornwall Energy reviewed the client’s financial model assumptions and devised likely future scenarios to consider as part of a new market framework roll-out. Change in law provisions within PPAs were assessed and areas of a new regulatory environment posing risk to the business were identified.

Cornwall, 2 Millennium Plain, Norwich, Norfolk, NR2 1TFTelephone: 01603 604400Email: enquiries@cornwall-insight.com

www.cornwall-insight.com