exploring the extended continental shelf · pdf filefrontier” for offshore resource...

EXPLORING THE EXTENDED CONTINENTAL SHELF

Robert van de Poll, CANADIAN

International Manager, Law of the Sea,

Fugro N.V., Leidschendam, The Netherlands

[email protected]

Clive Schofield, AUSTRALIAN

Director of Research,

Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS),

University of Wollongong, Australia

[email protected]

International Workshop on Further Consideration of the Implementation of Article 82 of

the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Beijing, 26-30 November 2012

Disclaimer

• Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of

the graphics/figures contained in this presentation and

the accompanying paper. Nevertheless, these are

necessarily:

Illustrative

Indicative

Independent

Preliminary

• It is requested that the figures contained in this paper are

not quoted without the permission of the authors

Global State of Play

There are 192 (UN Member States) Countries in the world today

Of these, there are 155* Coastal States

Of these 155 as many as 85* of these Coastal States have the

opportunity to formally make an Extended Continental Shelf (ECS)

Submission (in accordance with UNCLOS, Article 76) beyond 200

nautical miles (nm) (EEZ)

To date (as of November 2012), 78** Coastal States have

deposited 100 submissions (61** full & 39** preliminary) with the

United Nations, delineating substantial areas of extended

continental shelf subject to coastal State jurisdiction totalling

over ~29,417,052 km2 (including ~3,227,110 km2 overlapping

claims)

….but, not including the additional 7 Coastal States’ possible

and/or probable submissions yet to come …

*Robert van de Poll (2009 Fugro Global LOS Compilation Database ~ possible based on notification and/or analysis)

**United Nations Website ~ deposited as of October 2012

State of Play in the Asia-Pacific Region

Of the 78** submitting States, 17*** fall within the Asia-Pacific

Region, encompassing 4,423,471 km2 of possible/probable

extended continental shelf areas.

Overlapping submissions are likely to occur in 12 areas covering a

total area of approximately ~1,168,513 km2, equating to ~26.4% of

total extended continental shelf areas in the Asia-Pacific

Extended continental shelf areas set to become the “Next Frontier” for offshore resource exploration / exploitation for

decades to come.

Offshore resource development implications in the Asia-Pacific

highlighted here focus on Oil & Gas, Gas Hydrates and Seabed

Mining.

**United Nations Website ~ deposited as of October 2012

***Only 16 of the 17 Countries being reviewed supplied claimed Areas

North American Compilation

(23 Coastal States )

Fugro’s Regional Compilation

Database

A Law of the Sea Inventory

for 155 Coastal States

Oceania Compilation

(16 Coastal States)

Asian Compilation

(35 Coastal State)

African Compilation

(38 Coastal States)

European Compilation

(33 Coastal States)

South American Compilation

(10 Coastal States )

*Asia-Pacific ABLOS Regional Law of the Sea Resources Analysis

(27 Coastal States of which 17 have assembled ECS Submissions)

*51 Coastal States in Fugro LOS Compilations for Asia (35) and Oceania (16)

1:40,000,000 scale

Area 1 Analysis

(7 Submissions)

Area 4 Analysis

(2 Submissions)

Area 2 Analysis

(5 Submissions)

Area 3 Analysis

(3 Submissions)

Area #1 (Arabian Sea / Bay of Bengal ~ 1:18,000,000 scale)

7 ECS Submissions : (Pakistan, India, Maldives, Sri Lanka , Bangladesh, Myanmar (Burma) , Indonesia (Partial)

Maritime Space

(EEZ waters)

5,745,161 km2 Maritime Boundary Agreements

(11 (64.7%))

Maritime Boundary (NO Agreements)

(6 (35.3%)) Pakistan’s Claim

India’s Claim

Maldives Claim

Sri Lanka’s Claim

Bangladesh’s Claim

Myanmar’s Claim

Indonesia’s Claim

UNCLOS (Article 76)

“7 Continental Shelf Claims”

(Submissions = 2,804,007 km2)

ECS Submissions

“3x Overlaps”

(720,647 km2)

Seabed Resources: Oil & Gas

Offshore Concession Blocks

(1,966,597 km2)

~ 34% of EEZ waters

Contentious Blocks Issues

Pakistan’s Claim

India’s Claim

Maldives Claim

Sri Lanka’s Claim


Indonesia’s Claim

Myanmar’s Claim

Seabed Resources: Gas Hydrates

(10 known Locations)

Pakistan’s Claim

India’s Claim

Maldives Claim

Sri Lanka’s Claim


Indonesia’s Claim

Myanmar’s Claim

Area #2 (South China Sea ~ 1:18,000,000 scale)

6 ECS Submissions : (Malaysia, Vietnam, China (Partial), Brunei, Philippines, Palau)

Maritime Boundary Agreements

(12 (36.4%))


(21 (63.6%))

Maritime Space

(EEZ waters)

10,797,285 km2

Philippines's Claim

China’s Possible Claim ??

Malaysia’s & Vietnam’s

(Joint) Claim Palau’s Claims

Vietnam’s Claim

Philippines’s

Possible Claim ??

Brunei’s (Assumed) Claim

UNCLOS (Article 76)


(Submissions = 454,429 km2)

ECS Submissions

“1x Overlaps”

(8,044 km2)



(Joint) Claim

Vietnam’s Claim


Philippines's Claim

Palau’s Claims


Philippines’s

Possible Claim ??



(3,446,886 km2)

~ 32% of EEZ waters


(6 known Locations)


(Joint) Claim

Vietnam’s Claim


Philippines's Claim

Palau’s Claims


Philippines’s

Possible Claim ??

Area #3 (East China Sea / Yellow Sea / Sea of Japan / Philippine Sea ~ 1:18,000,000 scale)

3 ECS Submissions : (China (Partial), South Korea, Japan)

Maritime Space

(EEZ waters)

4,152,195 km2


(3 (25%))


(9 (75%))

China’s Claim (No Area)

Japan’s Claims

South Korea’s Claim

ECS Submissions

“2x Overlaps”

(245,915 km2)

UNCLOS (Article 76)



(No Area supplied by China)



(1,253,049 km2)

~ 30% of EEZ waters



Japan’s Claims



(6 known Locations)


Japan’s Claims


Gas Hydrate Reservoirs around Japan

(aprox. 500m – 4500m water depth)

*Gas in place Estimate 71 – 471 TCF

(**aprox. 149,122 km2 (geodetic))

(*Source: Hydrate Energy International (HEI-2008))

(Source: Map interpreted from JAPEX)

1:9,000,000 scale

Area #4 (South Pacific / Coral Sea ~ 1:18,000,000 scale)

*2 ECS Submissions : (Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Papua New Guinea (PNG))

Maritime Space

(EEZ waters)

7,298,126 km2


(8 (61.5%))


(5 (38.5%))

FSM’s Claims PNG’s Claims

UNCLOS (Article 76)

“*2 Continental Shelf Claims”


(*Partial ~ Both have additional “Joint” claim)

ECS Submissions

“2x Overlaps”

(193,907 km2)



(418,232 km2)

~ 6% of EEZ waters



(2 known Locations)


Seabed Resources: Seabed Mining


(479,440 km2)

~ 7% of EEZ waters


Nautilus Minerals “Solwara-1”

1600 meters water depth

(*Production expected ~2014)

(Source: Nautilus)

Entire Asia-Pacific Study Area ~ 1:40,000,000 scale

*17 ECS Submissions Summary

Maritime Space

(EEZ waters)

27,992,767 km2

(Geodetic)

75 Maritime Boundaries (Studied Countries)

34 Agreements (Total Length = 12,053km)

41 Non-Agreements (Total Length = 15,523km)

54.7% Un-resolved and/or In Dispute

(Globally 59.5% Un-resolved and/or In Dispute)

UNCLOS (Article 76)

“*17 Continental Shelf Claims”

(Submissions = 4,432,471 km2)

(*Full & Preliminary, some partial, no area for China yet)

ECS Submissions

“12x Overlaps”

(1,168,513 km2)

(Aprox. 26.4%)



(7,084,764 km2)

~ 25.3% of EEZ waters


(27 known Locations)

Current Gas Hydrates Estimates in

this Regional Coverage Area

*~4715 TCF Gas (~786 BBOE)

(**197 year Gas Energy Supply for USA)

(*Source : Hydrate Energy International (HEI ~ 2011)

(**Source : 2011 EIA , USA used 24TCF Gas in 2011)

Seabed Resources: Seabed Mining


(479,440 km2)

~ 1.7% of EEZ waters

Asia-Pacific ABLOS Resources Summary ~ 1:40,000,000 scale)

*GAS HYDRATES UPDATE: 2012

... Completion of a successful unprecedented test of technology …

... was able to safely extract a steady flow of Natural Gas from Methane Hydrates …

… First ever field trial of Methane Hydrate Production Methodology …

Who (Partners): US Department of Energy

Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation

ConocoPhillips

Where: North Slope, Alaska, USA

When: February 15 – April 10, 2012

BUT: Potential impact of falling gas prices?

*http://energy.gov/articles/us-japan-complete-successful-field-trial-methane-hydrate-production-technologies

Estimates of Global deep-sea resources’ value

In 2000, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) estimated the potential of eight non-living

resources (including oil & gas and gas hydrates) within the Extended Legal Continental

Shelf regions (ECLS) worldwide to be US$ 11,934 trillions (June 2000 commodity prices).*

Oil & Gas likely to lead the way:

• Global deepwater capital expenditure 2012-2016 forecast: US$232 billion

• 90% more than 2007-2011

• At least 12 States have issued or defined areas for future bid rounds seawards of 200nm

limit

Only likely to become more significant as:

• On-shore/shallow water resources plateau and decline, demand continues to escalate and

commodity prices rise

*http://energy.gov/articles/us-japan-complete-successful-field-trial-methane-hydrate-production-technologies

The Next Frontier:

Global Importance to securing the Resources

of the Extended Continental Shelf

Gulf of Thailand

5800 – 7800 MBOE

China & Japan

500 MBOE

China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia,

Brunei and Philippines ( Reed Bank )

200 -300 MBOE

China & Vietnam

400 MBOE

China & Vietnam

300 MBOE

China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia,

Brunei and Philippines (Spratly Islands)

8000 - 10 000 MBOE

Vietnam &

Indonesia

(Unitization)

400 MBOE

Brunei & Malaysia

1000 - 2000

MBOE

Indonesia &

Malaysia

1000 MBOE

Australia &

Indonesia

2400 MBOE

Australia & Timor

300 MBOE (JPDA)

1800 MBOE (S&T)

SOURCES:

Bishopp, Prescott, Woodmac, CERA

(Note: Ultimate Recovery Figures)

Total Ultimate Potential

(22.1 BBOE – 27.2 BBOE)

NOTE: This slide was presented in 2010 at an

Asian Oil & Gas Conference

*Latest Oil Reserves

USA Oil Reserves = 22.45 BBOE

UK Oil Reserves = 4.50 BBOE

27.2 BBOE is more the USA & UK Reserves

(Tied up in Maritime Boundary Disputes)

*http://www.nationalmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_res-energy-oil-reserves

NOTE: All Boundaries are for illustrative purposes only

Thank You

Questions ???

ROBERT VAN DE POLL

International Manager Law of the Sea

Fugro N.V.

Leidschendam

The Netherlands

[email protected]

CLIVE SCHOFIELD

Director of Research

Australian National Centre for Ocean

Resources and Security (ANCORS)

University of Wollongong

Australia

[email protected]

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