export value thai export to major destinations apr 2017 = 16.5 … · 2017. 5. 31. · 1 75 80 85...
TRANSCRIPT
1
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data
Apr 2017 = 16.5 Bn USDEx. Gold = 16.2 Bn USD
Mar 2017 = 20.8 Bn USDEx. Gold = 20.3 Bn USD
Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.
Thai Export to Major Destinations
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
US
%YoYShare 2016P 2016P
2016P 2017P
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr%MoM
saAgriculture 7.0 -6.3 -9.7 -11.9 6.2 20.7 24.1 15.5 -3.3
Fishery 1.0 15.2 11.0 22.6 16.2 2.1 6.6 2.8 1.3
Manufacturing 87.2 -1.3 -4.3 0.9 2.6 5.9 9.5 7.0 -2.9
Agro-manufacturing Products 12.0 0.5 -0.3 0.6 1.9 8.3 8.7 11.9 1.7Electronics and OpticalAppliances
16.0 -2.3 -5.8 1.2 0.5 10.8 19.7 3.9 -5.8
Electrical Appliances 5.8 3.6 1.3 8.5 3.4 9.6 13.4 -1.5 -3.0
Automotive 15.5 3.0 2.1 5.7 1.9 2.6 5.3 -1.1 -6.1
Machinery & Equipment 8.9 -0.0 -4.9 2.2 7.5 3.6 7.6 3.6 -10.6
Petroleum Related 10.7 -12.3 -19.4 -12.0 3.1 18.2 23.5 15.1 -2.3
Total 100.0 0.0 -2.0 0.4 3.6 6.6 10.8 5.9 -4.7
Ex. Gold - -1.6 -4.7 -0.1 3.1 9.0 12.1 5.5 -4.3
Ex. Gold+Petroleum related - -0.1 -2.6 1.6 3.1 8.0 10.8 4.3 -4.5
Asian Export Performance
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)Ex.gold
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
EU
Japan*
China
ASEAN5
ME
TH ex.GoldTW
ID ex.Oil & Gas
SG
MY
CN
KR
* ex. Aircraft and other manufacturing
Export Value
2
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011)P = Preliminary data
Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT
MPI Classified by Export Share
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT
(%YoY)Share2011 2016P
2016 2017
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP %MoMsa
Food & Beverages 19.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.7 -0.3 -2.4Automotive 16.9 0.4 5.3 -4.6 -4.2 -6.0 -9.1 -9.0 3.7- Vehicle 10.2 1.9 6.6 -1.6 -3.4 -5.7 -10.5 -12.1 5.0- Engine 6.6 -2.8 2.7 -11.2 -5.8 -6.4 -6.3 -2.3 1.2
Rubbers & Plastics 10.6 0.6 4.5 -3.8 -2.8 -2.4 0.8 -0.7 1.2IC & Semiconductors 8.0 6.1 2.5 7.2 12.1 14.5 1.5 10.3 2.6Textiles & Apparels 5.9 -7.0 -8.8 -6.4 -4.1 -3.6 0.4 -5.6 -2.6Chemicals 5.8 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -1.0 0.5 -1.6 -4.1 0.3
Cement & Construction 5.0 0.3 -1.2 2.2 1.5 -0.9 -1.6 3.4 0.8
Electrical Appliances 4.4 14.9 14.6 24.8 6.3 -2.8 2.2 0.3 0.3Petroleum 3.3 2.4 -0.1 3.7 6.1 -0.2 7.4 0.6 -0.4HDD 1.2 -7.6 -16.0 1.3 1.2 10.0 32.7 4.8 -9.9Others 19.7 1.3 -0.5 0.9 5.5 3.3 4.5 -3.1 -5.7MPI 100.0 1.6 1.9 0.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 -1.7 -MPIsa %D from lastperiod
100.0 - - -0.6 1.4 -0.7 1.2 - -0.8
Capacity Utilization (SA) - - 60.3 59.1 60.2 59.8 60.1 60.1 -
70
85
100
115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Export<30%30%<Export<60%Export>60%
3
Sources: Department of Tourism, Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
TotalChina (share 27%)Malaysia (share 11%)Asia ex. CN MY (share 29%)Europe ex. Russia (share 16%)Russia (share 3%)
Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100) Tourists Classified by Nations
20162016 2017
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr
No. of tourists (’000) 32,588 16,592 8,228 7,768 9,194 3,008 2,828
%YoY 8.9 12.0 13.1 -0.9 1.7 2.0 7.0
%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - 0.7 -11.4 12.8 4.7 0.9
4
Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Semi-durable Index sa,3mmaDurable Index sa, 3mmaDurable Index sa
Jan 2014 = 100
Private Consumption Indicators
%YoY 20162016 2017
%MoMsa
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP AprP
Non-durable index 2.1 3.1 2.0 0.3 -0.8 0.3 -0.9 0.0
Semi-durable index 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.0 0.3 2.6 -2.0 -1.3
Durable index -1.2 -2.4 5.6 -4.5 11.1 12.5 11.9 -2.3
Service index 7.3 7.4 9.0 5.2 5.2 4.0 8.5E 1.0E
(less) Net tourist spending 11.0 14.2 15.2 0.6 3.7 3.9 10.2 4.1
PCI 3.4 3.2 4.2 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.6 -0.3
* Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector
Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index
Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100
60
80
100
120
140
160
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Service index sa, 3mmaNon-resident spending index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100Service Index* & Net Non-resident Spending Index
90
100
110
120
130
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Nielsen’s FMCG index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, saFuel index sa, 3mma (RHS)
5
25303540455055
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Real IncomeIndexJan 2014 = 100
P = Preliminary Data
Farm Income
(%YoY) 2015 20162016 2017
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr
Nominal farm
incomeP-10.0 1.4 -7.1 11.5 6.1 19.7 29.2 30.9
Agricultural
productionP-4.4 -2.1 -6.8 0.0 2.4 6.7 19.5 27.4
Agricultural
price-5.9 3.6 -0.3 11.5 3.6 12.1 8.1 2.8
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Farm Income saFarm Income sa, 3mmaAverage Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma
Sources: MOC, NSO, OAE, calculated by BOT
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 50)
Agriculture = 35.9 Non-Agriculture = 36.9Apr 17Average 5 years = 37.9
6
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)
Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT E = Estimated data
Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction 1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa, 3mma(Jan 2014=100)
Index sa , 3mma(Jan 2014 = 100)
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Sales for Investment
% YoY 20162016 2017 %MoM
sa
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP AprP
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -8.7 -7.5 -10.7 -9.3 -7.0 -6.2 -2.4 -1.0
Construction Materials Index -2.0 -1.0 -5.0 -0.9 -2.5 -4.1 -7.5 -0.7
Real Imports of Capital Goods -1.7 -1.0 -1.9 -2.8 -1.3 4.4 -3.5 0.6
Real Domestic Machinery Sales 4.6 6.0 3.6 2.9 0.3 8.8 4.6 -0.3
Car Sales for Investment -3.2 3.4 -0.8 -14.4 11.1 11.6 12.8 1.4
PII 0.8 -0.7 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.1
Capacity Utilization (SA) 60.0 60.3 59.1 60.2 59.8 60.1 60.1 -
Private Investment Indicators
Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.
-120-80-40
04080
120160
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Debt Equity Business credits (SA) 3MMA
Sources of Corporate Financing Bn baht
7
Sources: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office
Fiscal PositionBillion Baht FY2016P
FY2016P FY2017P
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar AprP
Revenue1/ 2,412 749 603 549 484 175 177(%YoY) (9.3) (13.6) (5.3) (-6.0) (1.7) (-3.9) (5.4)Expenditure2/ 2,736 650 551 925 636 224 217(%YoY) (9.0) (18.2) (-1.7) (6.0) (-4.0) (-13.8) (-2.9)Budgetary B/L -324 99 52 -376 -152 -48 -40Non-Budgetary B/L -58 -23 31 5 -26 22 2Cash B/L (CG) -382 76 83 -372 -178 -27 -38Net Financing 397 -44 123 5 245 60 68Treasury B/L 441 235 441 75 142 142 171
Billion bahtCentral Government Current Expenditure
(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)Billion baht
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Cash basis 2/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets,
except loan repayments
Fiscal Position
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2014-16 FY2016 FY2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2014-16 FY2016 FY2017
8
Apr 2017 = 15.1 Bn USDEx. Gold = 14.7 Bn USD
Mar 2017 = 17.8 Bn USDEx. Gold = 17.1 Bn USD
Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015 = 100)
* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.
40
60
80
100
120
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods
80
90
100
110
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Value Quantity Price
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015 = 100)
%YoYShare 2016P 2016P
2016P 2017P
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr%MoM
sa
Consumer 10.9 5.8 4.1 8.0 7.1 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.4
Raw material&Intermediate 52.7 -7.6 -16.0 -4.7 9.2 21.2 28.6 16.5 -6.0
o/w Fuel 12.1 -20.9 -34.7 -16.6 11.7 52.7 68.1 34.4 -21.0
o/w Raw mat&Interm ex. Fuel 40.6 -2.7 -8.6 -0.5 8.4 13.3 18.4 11.8 -0.2
Capital 26.6 -2.5 -5.7 2.2 -1.1 7.2 8.7 12.1 -3.0
Others 9.8 3.0 -2.0 0.6 13.1 19.1 20.7 13.7 -15.0
Total 100.0 -4.7 -11.3 -2.4 6.7 15.9 22.4 10.1 -7.9
Ex. Gold - -4.3 -10.6 -1.5 6.5 12.9 21.4 8.8 -6.1
Ex. Gold&Fuel - -1.0 -5.4 1.4 5.6 7.6 14.9 5.1 -3.1
Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.
Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data
Import Value
9
% 20162016 2017
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr
Unemployment rate (sa)
1.0 1.0 0.9(1.0)
1.0(1.1)
1.2(1.1)
1.3(1.2)
1.2(1.2)
Employed persons (%YoY)
-0.9 -0.4 -0.2 -2.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4
Underemployment rate
0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0
Labor Market Indicators EmploymentThousand persons
sa, 3mmaThousand persons
sa, 3mma
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS)Agriculture (sa) (RHS)
Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT
Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT
Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Raw food (15.69%)
Energy (11.75%)
Core (72.56%)Apr
0.38%
Apr0.50%
10
Balance of Payments
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Billion USD 2015P 2016P2016P 2017P
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE YTD
Trade Balance 26.8 35.8 20.1 9.0 6.6 8.8 2.9 1.5 10.3Exports (f.o.b.) 214.1 214.1 104.6 54.9 54.6 56.2 20.8 16.5 72.8
%YoY -5.6 0.0 -2.0 0.4 3.6 6.6 10.8 5.9 6.4Imports (f.o.b.) 187.2 178.4 84.5 45.9 48.0 47.4 17.8 15.1 62.5
%YoY -10.6 -4.7 -11.3 -2.4 6.7 15.9 22.4 10.1 14.5Net Services, Income & Transfers 5.3 11.1 6.1 1.9 3.1 4.5 -0.3 1.5 6.0Current Account 32.1 46.8 26.2 10.9 9.7 13.3 2.6 2.9 16.2Capital and Financial Account -17.1 -25.7 -3.4 -10.5 -11.9 -4.4 -7.0 0.2 -4.2Overall Balance 5.9 12.8 17.7 0.8 -5.6 8.2 -3.2 1.8 10.0
11
Net Financial FlowsMillions of USD 2015P 2016P 2016P 2017P
H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE YTD1. Assets -5,357 -22,752 -8,731 -8,216 -5,805 -9,013 -7,078 -230 -9,242TDI -4,991 -14,228 -8,263 -2,929 -3,037 -2,426 -1,567 -519 -2,945
- Equity -6,063 -9,706 -5,737 -2,213 -1,757 -1,274 -234 -311 -1,585Thai Portfolio investment -3,817 -4,361 482 -2,784 -2,059 -4,265 -2,628 -776 -5,040
- Equity security investment -3,398 -1,869 -82 -1,319 -468 -1,754 -1,012 -492 -2,246- Debt security investment -419 -2,492 564 -1,465 -1,592 -2,511 -1,615 -284 -2,795
Loans -3,063 1,369 1,030 -124 463 -753 -684 40 -713Other Investments 6,514 -5,532 -1,981 -2,380 -1,172 -1,569 -2,199 1,025 -544
- Trade credits -1,547 -1,250 859 -2,170 60 -1,020 -1,081 739 -2812. Liabilities -11,745 -2,983 5,369 -2,235 -6,117 4,651 74 433 5,084FDI 9,004 2,553 3,717 -3,929 2,765 3,297 887 521 3,818
- Equity 5,742 1,347 -1,378 542 2,183 1,519 178 152 1,671Foreign Portfolio investment -12,691 1,473 2,171 5,373 -6,071 1,853 -30 117 1,970
- Equity security investment -8,969 -786 -332 3,223 -3,676 262 170 126 388- Debt security investment -3,722 2,260 2,503 2,151 -2,394 1,590 -200 -8 1,582
Loans -2,148 -0 1,965 -1,357 -609 663 -647 240 903Other Investments -5,909 -7,010 -2,485 -2,322 -2,203 -1,161 -136 -446 -1,607
- Trade credits -390 -2,068 -434 -1,077 -556 -173 165 -201 -374Total Financial Flows (1+2) -17,102 -25,735 -3,362 -10,451 -11,923 -4,361 -7,004 203 -4,158
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
12
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
JPY EUR GBP KRW THB CNY IDR SGD TWD PHP INR MYR
28 Apr 2017 compared to end of Mar 201724 May 2017 compared to end of Apr 2017
Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and BloombergSources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg
Exchange Rate Movement
(Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD)
% p.a.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
30-D
ec-1
522
-Jan-
1612
-Feb
-16
7-M
ar-1
628
-Mar
-16
22-A
pr-1
618
-May
-16
9-Ju
n-16
30-Ju
n-16
26-Ju
l-16
17-A
ug-1
67-
Sep-
1628
-Sep
-16
19-O
ct-1
610
-Nov
-16
1-De
c-16
26-D
ec-1
618
-Jan-
178-
Feb-
172-
Mar
-17
23-M
ar-1
718
-Apr
-17
11-M
ay-1
7
Latest data 24 May 2017
Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)
Index (Jan 2014 = 100)
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
NEER REER USDTHB
May 2017(Average data until 24 May)THB Appreciation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2016
Q120
16Q2
2016
Q320
16Q4
2017
Q1M
ar-1
7Ap
r-17
Apr 20173.5
Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes