exporting and importing graduates by irene mosca robert e. wright department of economics
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Exporting and Importing Graduates by Irene Mosca Robert E. Wright Department of Economics University of Strathclyde March 12, 2010 “ESRC Festival of Social Science ”, Department of Innovation and Skills, Sheffield. Introduction - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Exporting and Importing Graduates
by
Irene MoscaRobert E. Wright
Department of EconomicsUniversity of Strathclyde
March 12, 2010
“ESRC Festival of Social Science”, Department of Innovation and Skills, Sheffield
Introduction
One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of the United Kingdom
Why?
•Regional focus: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales
•Export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services
•Such information is being fed into the CGE analysis
Slide 2/23
Policy Relevance: Scotland
• Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland
• Migration flows of students and graduates thought to “reinforce” migration flows of general population (north and west to the east)
• “Belief” that building HEIs in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends
• Costs versus benefits of “free higher education”
• “Demographic decline”
• Who “wins” from regional “trade” in graduates.
• Over-education, under-employment, skills-mismatch issues
Slide 3/23
ESRC Grant: “Higher Education, Over-education and Migration”,
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Figure 1Net-migration, Scotland, 1951-2007
Year
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
Figure 2Number of Higher Education Students,
Scotland, 1994/95-2007/08
Higher Education Institutions only All institutions
Year
Num
ber o
f stu
dent
s
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency/ Scottish Government
Table 1Percentage Growth Rates of Various Higher Education Student Groups,
1994/95-2007/08
Type of Student: Scotland UK
Full-time 26.2 37.5
Part-time 99.6 68.3
Under-graduates 38.1 46.5
Post-graduates 51.5 49.4
Foreign 100.4 108.8
Science 55.7 66.4
Non-science 30.3 36.2
All students 41.2 47.1Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency
Table 2Place of Domicile of Students at British and Scottish and UK Higher Education Institutes,
2007/08
UK Scotland
Place of domicile: Numbers % Numbers %
Scotland 175,110 7.6 148,460 70.6
England 1,615,340 70.0 21,755 10.4
Northern Ireland 62,290 2.7 4,800 2.3
Wales 101,970 4.4 675 0.3
Foreign 341,790 14.8 33,895 16.1
UK unknown 9,590 0.4 605 0.3
All 2,306,090 100.0 210,190 100.0
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200715
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Figure 3Higher Education Age Participation Index
Scotland, 1983/84 to 2006/7
Both Male
Female 50 per cent
Year
Perc
enta
ge
Source: Scottish Government
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200825
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
Figure 4 Higher Education Students per 1,000 Population
Scotland and UK, 1994/95-2007/08
Scotland UK
Year
Per
1,0
00 p
opul
atio
n
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency
Figure 5 Number of 17 Year Olds
Scotland, 1981-2044(GAD Projections)
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Year
Num
ber o
f peo
ple Principal projection Zero net-migration projection
Figure 6Under-employment Rates
First-degree Graduates and Post-graduatesA Scottish University, 1998-2005
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Perc
enta
ge
First-degree graduates Post-graduates
Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK.
Match data from three datasets:
(1) Students in Higher Education Institutions
(2) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Institutions
• 13 cohorts of graduates: 1994/95 to 2006/2007
(3) Destinations of Leavers From Higher Education Longitudinal Survey
• 1 cohort of graduates: 2002/03
Data
Slide 13/23
The HESA data provide four key postal addresses: (1) Place of domicile(2) Place of study(3) Place of employment: 6 months after graduation (4) Place of employment: 36 months later
This allows us to identify different migration types:
“movers versus stayers”
Table 3Place of Domicile/Place of Study Matrix
Place of Study
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Domicile
England 100%
Scotland 100%
Wales 100%
NI 100%
Table 4Place of Study/Place of Employment-Study Six Months Matrix
Place of Employment Six months
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Study
England 100%
Scotland 100%
Wales 100%
NI 100%
Table 5Place of Domicile/Place of Study Matrix
2002/03-2006/07 Cohorts
Place of Study
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Domicile
England 95.8% 1.3% 2.8% 0.1%
Scotland 8.1% 91.5% 0.3% 0.1%
Wales 32.1% 0.6% 67.2% 0.1%
NI 15.7% 8.5% 0.7% 75.1%
Table 6Place of Study/Place of Employment-Study Six Months Matrix
2002/03-2006/07 Cohorts
Place of Employment/Study Six months
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Study
England 97.8% 0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Scotland 12.3% 86.2% 0.3% 1.2%
Wales 33.9% 0.6% 65.2% 0.3%
NI 6.0% 1.2% 0.2% 92.5%
England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Figure 7Who Wins from the Trade in Graduates?
2002/3-2006/07
What are the determinants of graduate migration flows?
• Fit logit regression models where the probability of migrating is related to observable characteristics
• Analysis at this stage mainly focuses on Scotland
• Today concerned mainly with Scottish-domiciled students studying in Scotland.
• Examine migration after graduation to other countries of the UK
• “Under-graduates graduates” and “post-graduate graduates” considered separately
• Fit similar models for England, Northern Ireland and Wales for comparative purposes
Variables Considered1) Sex
2) Age at graduation
3) Ethnic group (White or not)
4) Disability (Disabled or not)
5) Studied full or part-time
6) Class of qualification 1st 2-1
2-2 3rd, Pass, Ordinary, etc
5) Subject area 1. Arts and Humanities 2. Social Science 3. Science 4. Social Science-led 5. Science-led 6. Multi-disciplinary
6) Type of HEI 1. College 2. Post-1992 university 3. Non-Russell group pre-1992 university 4. Russell Group university 7) Region of domicile 8) “ HEI mover” (i.e. region of domicile is not region of HEI attended)
FINDINGS
Scottish-domiciled “under-graduates graduates”
Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for:
• Male• Full-time• “Non-white” ethnic background• Graduated at age 22-23 (inverted U-shape)• Science (or Science-led) qualification or “multi-disciplinary” qualification• 1st Class result (clear gradient)• Russell Group university (New Universities/Colleges much lower)• Moved to attend HEI• Regional effect (higher for Strathclyde region)• Decline between 2002-2006
Scottish-domiciled “post-graduate graduates”
Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for:
• Male• Full-time• Non-white ethnic background• Disabled• Non-white ethnic background• Graduated at age 25-26-27 (inverted U-shape)• Science (or Science-led) or “multi-disciplinary” qualification• Russell Group university and Colleges (New Universities much lower)• Moved to go to HEI• Regional effects of domicile less pronounced• Little change in 2002-2006
How big are these effects?
STEP (1): Create an hypothetical under-graduate graduate with the “average” characteristics of Scottish graduates and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating. GRADUATE “A”
STEP (2) Create another hypothetical under-graduate graduate with the following characteristics:
• Male• Full-time• Not disabled• White ethnic background• Graduated at age 22 • Science qualification• 1st Class result• Russell Group university• Moved to study
and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “B”
STEP (3) Compare the difference in the predicted probabilities
Predicted Probability of Migrating
Graduate A Graduate B
Scotland 6.0% 24.1%
Predicted Probability of Migrating
Graduate A Graduate B
Scotland 6.0% 24.1%
England 0.9% 2.2%
Northern Ireland 6.2% 11.1%
Wales 8.7% 33.9%
Relationship between migration and getting a “graduate job”
Elias, P. and Purcell, K. (2004) SOC (HE): A Classification of Occupations for Studying the Graduate Labour Market, ESRU Research paper No. 6., University of Warwick
SOC2000:
1) Traditional graduate: the established professions, for which, historically, the normal route has been via an undergraduate degree programme( e.g. solicitors and doctors)
2) Modern graduate: the newer professions, particularly in management, IT and creative vocational areas, which graduates have been entering since
educational expansion in the 1960s (e.g. computer programmers and journalists).
3) New graduate: areas of employment, many in new or expanding occupations, where the route into the professional area has recently changed such that it is now via an undergraduate degree programme (e.g. physiotherapists and sale managers).
4) Niche graduate: occupations where the majority of incumbents are not graduates, but within which there are stable or growing specialist niches which require higher education skills and knowledge (e.g. nurses and hotel managers)
5) Non graduate: occupations for which a graduate level education is inappropriate (e.g. school secretaries and bar staff)
Table 7Percentage Employed
2002/3 - 2006/07 Cohorts
t Scotland England Northern Ireland Wales
6 months 78.0% 77.1% 78.5% 78.1%
In graduate job (of those in employment)
75.0% 72.8% 74.5% 70.5%
In graduate job (mover) 84.4% 77.5% 83.1% 80.6%
In graduate job (stayer) 74.2% 72.6% 73.8% 69.2%
2002-2003 Cohort of graduates
Table 8Percentage Employed
2002/3 Cohort
t Scotland England Northern Ireland Wales
(a) 6 months 76.2% 76.1% 75.4% 79.6%
(b) 36 months 90.3% 89.4% 89.9% 90.6%
Table 9Percentage Employed in Graduate Jobs
2002/03 Cohort
Scotland England Northern Ireland Wales
(a) 6 months 69.5% 69.4% 73.2% 72.4%
(b) 36 months 81.9% 80.6% 79.9% 78.6%
Table 10Percentage Employed in Graduate Jobs –
Undergraduate and Postgraduate Graduates2002/3 Cohort
t: 6 months 36 months
Undergrad Postgrad Undergrad Postgrad
Scotland 62.8% 90.0% 79.2% 91.3%
England 61.1% 91.9% 76.7% 93.0%
Northern Ireland 66.4% 87.0% 75.5% 90.5%
Wales 66.0% 87.1% 74.6% 88.7%
Table 11Percentage Employed in Graduate Jobs
Movers versus Stayers2002/3 Cohort
t 6 months 36 months
Mover/Stayer Mover Stayer Mover Stayer
Scotland 84.3% 68.3% 85.7% 81.6%
England 78.0% 69.1% 75.9% 80.6%
Northern Ireland 80.5% 72.7% 87.1% 78.5%
Wales 83.3% 71.5% 81.7% 78.9%
Table 12Percentage Employed in Non-graduate Job after 6 Months
Employed in Graduate Job after 36 months
Scotland England Northern Ireland Wales
Mover 70.1% 75.7% 76.7% 44.2%
Stayer 59.7% 61.1% 50.8% 56.7%
Conclusions?