Extrasolar PlanetsExtrasolar PlanetsThe Next DecadeThe Next Decade

Dante Minniti, CatólicaSteve Vogt, UC Santa Cruz

Chris Tinney, UNSWPamela Arriagada, Católica

The discovery of extrasolar planets in the past decade was oneThe discovery of extrasolar planets in the past decade was oneof the most remarkable achievements of the century, and theof the most remarkable achievements of the century, and the

culmination of centuries of speculation.culmination of centuries of speculation.National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Review of AstrophysicsNational Academy of Sciences, Decadal Review of Astrophysics

~45,000 parsecs

50 parsecs

10,000 parsecs

1000 parsecs

16 Cygni B

Not sinusoidal

Planet Mass DistributionPlanet Mass Distribution

Fit ExcludesFit Excludes

11stst bin. bin.

Detection Detection Limit:Limit:

~ 0.2 M~ 0.2 MJUP JUP @ 1 @ 1 AUAU

Five Neptunes:Five Neptunes:Gl 436Gl 43655 Cnc d55 Cnc d AraAra• HD 190360HD 190360• Gliese 581Gliese 581

Butler et al.Butler et al.

McArthur et al.McArthur et al.

Santos et al. Santos et al.

Planet – Metallicity CorrelationPlanet – Metallicity Correlation

AbundanceAnalysis of1000 stars

onplanet search

.

22

PPplanetplanet ~ ~ ((NNFeFe

/ N/ NHH))

Previous Evidence: Previous Evidence: G.Gonzales, N.SantosG.Gonzales, N.Santos

Fischer & Valenti Fischer & Valenti 20052005

Metallicity Metallicity Models:Models:

Ida & LinIda & Lin

Kacper KornetKacper Kornet

et al. et al.

Doppler MeasurementsDoppler Measurements

Orbit:Orbit:

P = 2.876 dP = 2.876 d

K = 41.3 m/sK = 41.3 m/s

CircularCircular

M = 0.343 MM = 0.343 MJUPJUP

= 1.15 M= 1.15 MSATSAT

Photometry: Photometry:

Three TransitsThree Transits

3.0 millimag ->3.0 millimag ->

AAPLPL = 0.0028 A = 0.0028 Astarstar

RRPLPL = 0.053 R = 0.053 RStarStar

G. HenryG. Henry

Density & InteriorDensity & Interior R = 0.88 RR = 0.88 RSATSAT

M = 1.145 MM = 1.145 MSATSAT

SATSAT

R ~ MR ~ M-1/3 -1/3 (degeneracy)(degeneracy)

R ~ MR ~ M+1/3+1/3 (Coulomb, rock)(Coulomb, rock)

10% errors)10% errors)

= 1.69 = 1.69 SatSat

More RockMore Rock

Radius vs MassRadius vs MassMeasured for Transiting PlanetsMeasured for Transiting Planets

Mass (MMass (MJUPJUP))

Rad

ius

(RR

ad

ius

(RJU

PJU

P))

The Next Decade:The Next Decade:3 m/s versus 1 m/s3 m/s versus 1 m/s

1 m/s1 m/s

3 m/s3 m/s

Jupiter analog is 10-sigma detectionJupiter analog is 10-sigma detectionUncertainty of eccentricity is +/-0.02Uncertainty of eccentricity is +/-0.02Saturn-mass at 5 AU is a 4-sigma detectionSaturn-mass at 5 AU is a 4-sigma detectionSuper-Earths detectable in 4-day orbitsSuper-Earths detectable in 4-day orbitsDetection sensitivity similar/better than SIMDetection sensitivity similar/better than SIM

Minimal (3-sigma) detection of Jupiter analogMinimal (3-sigma) detection of Jupiter analogEccentricity of Jupiter analog is uncertain (+/-0.2)Eccentricity of Jupiter analog is uncertain (+/-0.2)Non-detection of Saturn-mass at 5 AUNon-detection of Saturn-mass at 5 AU

Obstacles to 1 m/sObstacles to 1 m/sStellar oscillations PhotonsStellar oscillations PhotonsStellar granulation Systematic ErrorsStellar granulation Systematic ErrorsStellar rotationStellar rotation

P-modes in Solar-type starsP-modes in Solar-type stars

Amp ~ 1.5 m/sAmp ~ 1.5 m/sPer = 5 minPer = 5 min

- Seismology- Seismology

-Noise:Noise:

Avg overAvg over P-modes !P-modes !

Alpha Cen A (G2 V)Alpha Cen A (G2 V)

K dwarfs: 1 meter/secK dwarfs: 1 meter/sec

Acoustic p-modes:Acoustic p-modes:

Amp < 1 m/sAmp < 1 m/s

Alpha Cen B (K0V)Alpha Cen B (K0V)

Doppler PrecisionDoppler Precision

10 Earth-Masses10 Earth-MassesP = 50 dayP = 50 day

Single telescopeSingle telescope

AliasingAliasing

1 day Obs1 day Obs..

5 Earth-Masses 5 Earth-Masses P = 50 dayP = 50 day

Single telescopeSingle telescope

1 Earth-Mass1 Earth-MassP = 4.2 dP = 4.2 d

MMstarstar = 0.5 M = 0.5 MOO

1 m/s: Long Data Strings1 m/s: Long Data Strings

APFAPF

AATAAT

USNO funded 2.4-m dedicated planet finderUSNO funded 2.4-m dedicated planet finder

48 continous nights Jan 10, 200748 continous nights Jan 10, 2007

KeckKeck 10 continous nights 10 continous nights

1 m/s: Long View1 m/s: Long View

TPFTPF

SIMSIM 1.2-to-2 billion $ 150 stars 2020?1.2-to-2 billion $ 150 stars 2020?

5-to-?? billion $ ? Stars 2040?5-to-?? billion $ ? Stars 2040?

8-m8-m 0.1 billion $ 1,000 stars NOW?0.1 billion $ 1,000 stars NOW?

1 m/s: Long View1 m/s: Long View

8-m8-m 0.1 billion $ 1,000 stars NOW?0.1 billion $ 1,000 stars NOW?

Every Saturn mass planet out to 9 AUEvery Saturn mass planet out to 9 AU

Every Neptune mass planet out to 1 AUEvery Neptune mass planet out to 1 AU

Super-Earths out to 0.3 AUSuper-Earths out to 0.3 AU

Earth-mass planets out to 0.1 AUEarth-mass planets out to 0.1 AU

Solar System analogsSolar System analogs

Habitable planetsHabitable planets