Extreme events, Scenario Developments across Disciplines.

Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography,

Moscow State University

NRAL Seminar, P P Shirshov Institute, Moscow

March 23, 2012

- Task Team on Catalogue of extreme events- Develop Scenarios for Model Runs- Next work and activities- logistics, travel, work shops- NRAL Summer-Workshop

- Business: consumables, software, travel, meetings, workshops

Agenda• 9.30 Coffee and snacks• 10.00 Peter Koltermann Introduction • Sergey Gulev On which Time-Scales does the Ocean

drive the Atmosphere ?• Igor Zveryaev Russian Summer Heat Wave 2010:

Climatological Background and Intraseasonal Evolution»

• Vladimir Semenov Cold winters of the 21st century as a non-linear atmosphere circulation response to the Arctic sea ice melt

• Natalya Tilinina Intercomparison of Cyclone Characteristics from different Methods and Products

• Evgenii Kulikov Modelling Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea• Victor Arkhipkin Time series of significant wave heights on

the Сaspian Sea

.

• Daria Gushina Synoptical situations associated to the various types of inundations in European part of Russia

• Inna Krylenko Flooding of the coastal zones• Elena Ilyushina Calculating risk, economical and

individual»• Break 12:30 – 14:00• Sergey Mukhametov Report of Task Team «Catalogue

of hazards of the coastal zone»• Discussion with participants

• General Discussion• - Next work and activities• - logistics, travel, work shops• - NRAL Summer-Workshop• Any other business

Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,

Historical Data Bases

Risk Assessment

Coastal impactsHazard - Uncertainty

Exposure

Vulnerability

( )Zf z

( )xf x

( )z g x

( )E z

( )V z

( ) ( ) ( ) ,ZR f z E z V z dz

risk

vulnerability

haza

rd

exposure

The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999)

Methodology

Castaneda

Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up

500 years return level (m)Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding level (cm/year)

parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et al. (2006)

Castaneda