F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE

(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi

Dated: 08.09.2020

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP

HELD ON 04.09.2020.

Summary

All-India level rainfall during the week,27August to 02 September 2020, has been 31% higher than

the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against

the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 73% in Central India,

- Higher by 37% in North West India and

- Lower by 19% in East & North East India,

- Lower by 17% in South Peninsula.

Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June to 02September 2020, has been 9% higher

than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 20% each in South Peninsula & Central India,

- Higher by 2% in East & North East India and

- Lower by 10% in North West India,

Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 11 MET sub-divisions constituting 29% of total area

- Normal in 22 MET sub-divisions constituting 59% of total area, and

- Deficient/large deficient in 03 MET sub-divisions constituting 12% of total area.

Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total

live storage capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 03 September 2020 was139.16 BCM, which is:

- 104% of last year’s storage on the same day (03 September 2019)of 134.43 BCM.

- 120% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 116.27 BCM.

As per latest information, around 102.3% of the normal area under Kharif crops has been sown up

to 04.09.2020. Total area sown under Kharif reported at 1095.38 lakh hectares as compared to

1030.32 lakh hectares during the same period last year.

All-India progressive procurement

As on 04 September, during RMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Wheat is 389.83 lakh

MT compared to 347.90 lakh MT during RMS 2019-20.

As on 04 September, during KMS 2019-20, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 510.51 lakh

MT compared to 439.68 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2018-19.

MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (June-September) during the week ending

02 September 2020

1.1 Rainfall

Rainfall during the week (27 Aug.2020 to02Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 14

met sub-divisions, normal in 08 sub-division and deficient/large deficient in 14 sub-division.

(Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

Cumulative rainfall (01June 2020 to 02 Sept. 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 met

sub-divisions, normal in 22 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 03 sub-divisions.

(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (02.09.2020) Cumulative (01.06.20 to 02.09.2020)

(in mm) Deviation (%)

Category (in mm) Deviation (%)

Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 48.1 35.1 37 E 451.7 500.2 -10 N

Central 104.4 60.5 73 LE 975.0 815.5 20 E

South Peninsula 29.8 35.9 -17 N 694.4 576.3 20 E

East & North-East 55.1 68.3 -19 N 1172.1 1143.5 2 N

Country as a whole 64.6 49.1 31 E 790.4 723.8 9 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and

All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June to 02September 2020

No. of Sub-Divisions with

rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

02 SEP

2015

31 AUG

2016

30 AUG

2017

05SEP

2018

04SEP

2019

02SEP

2020

Large Excess

Excess Normal

Total

-

01 19

20

-

04 24

28

00

06 24

30

00

01 25

26

00

09 20

29

02

09 22

33

Deficient

Large Deficient

Scanty No rain

Total

15

-

01 00

16

08

-

00 00

08

06

00

- 00

06

10

00

- 00

10

07

00

- 00

07

03

00

- 00

03

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 12% (-) 3% (-) 3% (-) 7% 1% 9%

Source: IMD

1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks

Week-1: 03 - 09 Sept. 2020

Western end of monsoon trough to continue to run south of its normal position till 5th Sept. and

shift towards foothills of Himalayas thereafter.

The eastern end of monsoon trough to remain to the north of its normal position throughout the

week.

No Low Pressure Area formation likely over Bay of Bengal.

The cyclonic circulation over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea off Karnataka &

north Kerala coasts at lower & middle levels likely to remain over the same area till 8th

September

Isolated Heavy rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over North

Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh on 03rd September; over Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan on 03rd

& 04th September; over Uttarakhand during 03-07 September, 2020.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and thunderstorm & lightning

very likely over Peninsular India during next 5 days.

Cumulative Rainfall for the week: After continuous excess rainfall for the country as a whole

for the four consecutive weeks, it is expected to decrease during next two weeks becoming

normal activity during week 1 and below normal rainfall activity during week 2.

(Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 03 - 09 Sept, 2020 is given in Annex-

III).

Week-2: 10 - 16 Sept. 2020

The monsoon trough is likely to remain north of its normal position or close to the foothills of the

Himalayas.

Development of features for monsoon withdrawal from western parts Rajasthan likely during the

week.

Formation of low pressure area is unlikely.

Above normal rainfall activity likely over northeastern states, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and

Kerala.

Below normal rainfall activity is likely over remaining parts of the country with significant

reduction in rainfall activity over northwest India.

Maximum Temperatures

During week-1 (03 - 09 Sept. 2020):- Most parts of India likely to experiences below normal

maximum temperature during the week except northeast India and West coast of India.

During week-2 (10 - 16 Sept. 2020):- Most parts of India likely to experiences below normal

maximum temperature during the week except west coast, northeast and adjoining northeast

India.

I. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 03 September 2020)

Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major

reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about

66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs increased to 139.16 BCM from the previous week’s

level of 131.08 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage

position of 134.43 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of

116.27 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of

Last Year

Storage as % of

10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 81 104 120

Last Week 77 102 119

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 79% on 03-09-2019, 72% on 03-09-2018, 56% on 03-

09-2017 and 66% on 03-09-2016.

Source: CWC

There were 116 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 5 reservoirs with storage

between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 01 reservoirs with

storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

II. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers

(UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2020 (As on 31.08.2020)

(in ‘000 tonnes)

Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2020 613 799 232 1,084 130

Requirement for April 2020 to Sept 2020 16,688 5,161 2,022 5,295 2,642

Estimated Requirement during Aug. 2020 3285 949 384 1056 451

Cumulative Receipt upto 31.08.2020 13319 4812 1331 4521 2174

Cumulative Availability upto31.08.2020 13932 5611 1563 5605 2304

Cumulative Sales upto31.08.2020 13818 5071 1368 5104 2175

Closing Stock as on 31.08.2020 114 540 195 501 129

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

III. Pest & Diseases:

Locust: No reports regarding crop damage in locust-affected States of Madhya Pradesh,

Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh received during this week.

Leaf folder reported at Trace to moderate intensity in 212 hectare area on Rice crop in East

Sikkim district of Sikkim.

Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

IV. Seeds Position:

The availability of certified/quality seeds in the country is 153.70 lakh quintal against the

requirement of 150.52 lakh quintal. There is some deficiency reported in soybean seed which is

met from Farm Save Seed, Private seed producing agencies and from surplus available with

public sector agencies.

Reduction in standard of germination has also been done from 70% to 65% and then 65% to 60%

again in case of soybean by Seed Division, DAC&FW for Kharif-2020 to meet-out the demand of

soybean seed.

V. All India Crop Situation Table –6

All India Crop Situation - Kharif (2020-21) as on 04.09.2020

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area

for whole

Kharif Season

(DES)

Area sown reported Absolute

Change over

2019

This Year

2020

% of Normal

for whole

season

Last Year

2019

Rice 397.29 396.18 99.7 365.92 30.26

Jowar 20.56 16.53 80.4 16.64 -0.11

Bajra 72.98 67.34 92.3 65.84 1.50

Maize 74.70 81.14 108.6 80.06 1.08

Total Coarse

Cereals 184.85 179.36 97.0 176.25 3.11

Total

Cereals 582.14 575.54 98.9 542.17 33.37

Tur 44.29 47.73 107.8 44.89 2.85

Urad 35.53 37.92 106.7 37.57 0.35

Moong 30.49 35.54 116.6 30.53 5.01

Kulthi 2.13 0.24 11.1 0.30 -0.06

Others 16.45 15.35 93.3 17.39 -2.04

Total Pulses 128.88 136.79 106.1 130.68 6.11

Total

Foodgrains 711.03 712.33 100.2 672.85 39.48

Groundnut 41.41 50.73 122.5 38.14 12.59

Soyabean 110.32 120.62 109.3 112.77 7.86

Sunflower 1.64 1.17 71.7 0.95 0.23

Sesamum 16.73 13.67 81.7 13.12 0.55

Nigerseed 2.23 1.44 64.5 1.39 0.05

Castorseed 9.07 7.12 78.5 7.64 -0.52

Total

Oilseeds 181.39 194.75 107.36 174.00 20.75

Cotton 122.27 128.95 105.5 124.90 4.05

Sugarcane 48.46 52.38 108.1 51.71 0.67

Jute & Mesta 7.60 6.97 91.7 6.86 0.11

All- Crops 1070.75 1095.38 102.3 1030.32 65.07

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

VI. Progressive Procurement as on 04 September 2020

Table 7.1: Rice

(in lakh tonnes)

State Target in Marketing

season 2019-20

(October– September)

Progressive Procurement as on

04.09.2020

In Marketing season

2019-2020

In Marketing season

2018-2019

Andhra Pradesh 61.92 53.45 48.10

Telangana 91.62 74.54 51.86

Bihar 12.00 13.41 9.49

Chhattisgarh 48.00 49.39 39.13

Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.41

Kerala 4.50 4.75 4.65

Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62

Maharashtra 12.70 11.57 5.80

Odisha 43.50 47.28 43.83

Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34

Tamil Nadu 13.44 20.50 12.58

Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33

Uttarakhand 5.00 6.82 4.62

West Bengal 26.00 16.32 16.96

All-India 527.60 510.51 439.68

Table 7.2: Wheat

(in lakh tonnes)

State Target in Marketing

season 2020-21

(April– March)

Progressive Procurement as on

04.09.2020

In Marketing season

2020-2021

In Marketing season

2019-2020

Bihar 2.00 0.05 0.03

Gujarat 1.25 0.77 0.05

Haryana 95.00 73.98 93.21

Himachal Pradesh 0.33 0.03 0.01

Madhya Pradesh 130.00 129.35 73.70

Punjab 135.00 127.14 129.21

Rajasthan 21.74 22.25 14.11

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 35.77 37.04

Uttarakhand 2.00 0.39 0.42

All-India 442.49 389.83 347.90

Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 03 – 09 September, 2020 for 36 Met Sub-

Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST &Wx. WARNINGS-2020

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 03 SEP 04 SEP 05 SEP 06 SEP 07 SEP 08 SEP 09 SEP

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS●

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT FWS●TS WS●TS FWS FWS FWS FWS●

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA SCTTS FWS●TS WS●TS FWS FWS● FWS● FWS●

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCTTS SCTTS FWS●TS FWS FWS● FWS● FWS●

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCT FWS●TS WS●TS WS●●TS WS● WS● WS●

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT ISOL SCT●TS FWSTS FWSTS FWS FWS

7 ODISHA SCTTS ISOL SCTTS FWS● FWS FWS FWS

8 JHARKHAND ISOL ISOL SCT SCT●TS FWSTS FWS FWS

9 BIHAR SCT ISOL SCT FWS●TS WS●TS WS● WS●

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCTTS SCTTS SCT FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS●

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH FWS●TS SCTTS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

12 UTTARAKHAND WS●TS FWS● SCT● FWS● FWS● FWS SCT

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCT●TS SCT ISOL ISOL DRY DRY ISOL

14 PUNJAB SCTTS SCT ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS●TS FWS● SCT SCT ISOL DRY DRY

16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH SCTTS SCT ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY

17 WEST RAJASTSAN FWS●TS FWS● ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY

18 EAST RAJASTSAN FWS●TS FWS● SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWS● SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS● FWS●

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS● FWS●

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY

23 KONKAN & GOA FWS●TS FWS●TS FWSTS FWSTS FWSTS FWS SCT

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCTTS FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS SCTTS SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA ISOLTS SCTTS FWSTS FWSTS SCT SCT SCT

26 VIDARBHA ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS

27 CHHATTISGARH SCTTS SCT SCTTS SCTTS FWS●TS FWS● FWS●

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM SCTTS SCTTS SCT SCT FWS● FWS● FWS●

29 TELANGANA SCTTS SCT SCT SCTTS FWS●TS FWS● FWS

30 RAYALASEEMA SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS● FWS● FWS●

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL FWS●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS SCT●TS SCT●TS SCT● SCT●

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS●●TS WS●TS WS● WS● WS● WS● WS●

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA WS●TS FWSTS FWS FWS● WS● FWS● FWS●

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA WS●TS WS●TS WS● WS● WS● WS● WS●

35 KERALA & MAHE WS●TS WS●TS FWS●TS WS● WS● WS● WS●

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS● FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS

LEGENDS: WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm)

●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm)

●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

FOG * SNOWFALL #HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)

$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/THUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)

Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 04 - 08 September 2020: