facebook organic reach analysis (september 2012 vs september 2013)

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Head Turners of Today’s Attention Economy http://41-29.com Facebook Organic Reach Analysis by Candaş Demir October 2013

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We have figured out that there is a significant decrease in Organic Reach Conversion to Total Likes on Facebook for a few weeks. So, we analyzed the state on our accounts by comparing September 2012 and September 2013. We have discovered that in September 2012, we can easily reach 15% of any brand pages on Facebook. However today, the conversion has decreased to 4.5%. Report prepared by: Candaş Demir tr.linkedin.com/in/candasdemir/

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Page 1: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

Head Turners of Today’s

Attention Economy

http://41-29.com

Facebook

Organic Reach

Analysis

by Candaş Demir October 2013

Page 2: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

1

Problem with Organic Reaches on Facebook

We at 41? 29! are working with more than 30 brands who are trying to reach

and contact with their fans. Our social media managers are the bridge

between the brands and their fans. The biggest social network in Turkey is

Facebook with nearly 32 million users. Turkish people love to engage on

Facebook. However, thanks to Facebook, pages reaching to its fans is getting

harder and harder. As an analyst, we have compared September 2012 and

September 2013 on several basis.

Quick overview, from September 2012 to September 2013 the major update on

the “News Feed Algorithm” was saying goodbye to “Edge Rank” on 6 Aug’ 2013

and after that Facebook starts to test and effects of this change reflects to our

pages on September. Before moving into the effects, we also need to mention

period of Gezi Park Protests. We have ceased the communication on pages

during June 2013.

At last but not least, I need to mention what we’ll cover:

Organic Reach Analysis

Organic Reach Analysis according to Post Types

What Affects Organic Reach

Page 3: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

2

September 2013

We have analyzed 1475 posts from 23 different pages (from various sectors

such as consumer goods, automotive, technology) we have shared during

September 2013.

We mostly used photos to get attention of users and engage with them. This

has been an overall strategy all around the world nearly for past two years.

Although it’s reasonable to use photos, key metric is reach!

16%

78%

2%

4%

Post Types

Link Photo Status Update Video

Page 4: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

3

Now, take a closer look to our pages.

So, out of our 23 pages, 7 of them have over 1 million fans and we have shared

755 posts on these pages which makes the nearly half of the dataset. Also,

answers resulted from analysis based on dataset is not too reliable for pages

that has lower than 10.000 fans (since we have 14 data).

14 60

97 59

38 45

315

92

703

52 1

1

4

2

1

2

4

1

5

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Fan Amounts

Number of Posts & Pages (w/t Fan Amounts)

Number of Posted Number of Pages

Page 5: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

4

Let’s take a look at the organic reaches,

Average organic reach of 1475 posts that we shared during September 2013 is

4.63% of Lifetime Total Likes. Here is the Lifetime Total Likes’ conversion to

organic reach.

If we are talking about a page of 100 fans, averages state that if you publish a

status update (text post), it will reach nearly 21 fan. If you share video, photo

or link it will reach nearly 5 fan. It’s a gap.

When analyzing the data, We have figured that source of this gap may be

related to size of the pages, fan amounts. The analyzed 23 pages average total

likes is 535,521.

3.39

4.44

21.20

4.64

0 5 10 15 20 25

Link

Photo

Status Update

Video

Organic Reach Conversion (%)

Type

%

Page 6: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

5

Now, this is chart tells amazing stories and the missing points of our data. Organic

reach of Photos starts to decrease after the page gains 10,000 fans. After 1 million,

organic reach of Photos drops below 4% (this level is also observed at 50,000-99,999

but when comparing to neighbors our data maybe outlier or the lowest level.)

After 150.000 fans, organic reach of video posts has decreased below 4.5% (except 1

mio to 1,5 mio) If we also think to conversion of reach to watch, Facebook makes it

impossible to make fans watch your video.

Status Updates are only 2% of our 1.475 posts database, however at every fan level it

shows consistency. 300,000-499,999 interval makes the 41% of our Status Update

(13) posts at which organic reach of Status Updates jumps to 24.92%.

We have only shared Links on pages which have 1 million fans and their organic reach

was always below 3.5%

3.39 3.24

14.89

6.39

3.03

7.83 6.31

8.62

3.54 4.89

3.71 3.50

13.75

24.92

21.52

15.72

6.35

11.83

4.33 2.77

1.61

3.70

6.68

3.09

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Organic Reach Conversion (w/t Post Types)

Link Photo Status Update Video

Page 7: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

6

Altough the sample seems insufficient at certain points, those outliers that I

have mention in parenthesis may have an another reason. For example, we

know that Facebook tries hard to make pages give ads and there isn’t anything

more natural than limiting the reaches of bigger pages to increase their budget

spent on media. But, does the Paid Reach affect Organic Reach?

We have supported 93 of 1,475 posts with ads.

At first glance, organic reach conversion is 5.72% for posts which have paid

reach and 4.55% for others. Here is the detailed chart.

Graph states that paid reach does increase organic reach except Status

Updates. Maybe Facebook does not care so much this type of post which have

the highest organic reach or of course our sample data can be limited since we

have only 2 Status Updates that is supported by Facebook Ads.

7.07 5.44

15.92

4.79 3.20

4.39

21.56

4.56

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Link Photo Status Video Link Photo Status Video

Yes No

Min

Avg

Max

Organic Reach Conversion (w/t Paid Used?)

Page 8: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

7

We have proved that Facebook values the area that page is invading on News

Feed and adjust the reach with respect to that. But, if you have a page that has

beyond average engagement. Facebook starts to suggest boost if the pages

post is over 1% engagement of engagement. We have compared our pages

organic engagement rates (comments+likes+shares per post and divided them

to organic reach) and calculated organic reach conversions for 23 pages.

No. From our data, it seems that Engagement of Pages does not affect the

organic reach of posts on Facebook. Yes, above 4% of engagement it seems like

organic reach jumps to epic level but I need to mention that the single page is

also the one page which have fans below 10.000 which means that it has the

perfect combinations for boosting organic reach: Low level of fans and higher

engagement.

4.88 4.16 4.16

3.15

14.89

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0-0.99% 1-2% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5%

Re

ach

Co

nve

rsio

n %

Engagement Rate (by Organic Reach)

Engagement Rate vs Reach Conversion

(2 pages) (12 pages) (7 pages) (1 pages) (1 pages)

Page 9: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

8

September 2012

For September 2012, We have analyzed 830 posts from 18 different pages –

again- from various sectors.

Back in those days, we had questions. But, we mostly share photos which is

followed by links. 753 of the 830 posts are Photos and Links. However, we did

not prefer Status Updates during the month and shared only 11 throughout the

18 pages.

17%

74%

3% 1%

5%

Total

Link Photo Question Status Update Video

Page 10: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

9

Last year, our pages are slightly smaller and analyzed pages and us grew

together.

Most of the pages from September 2012 has between 500.000-999.999 fans

and shared nearly 45% total posts on these pages which are followed by pages

that have 200.00-299.999 fans.

28 30

74

205

64

388

41

1 1

4 4

1

6

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Number of Posts & Pages (w/t Fan Amounts)

Number of Posts Number of Pages

Page 11: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

10

Now the breaking point, what was the organic reach conversion like according

to the post types in September 2012 in comparison to 2013?

In September 2012, average organic reach conversion was 14.8%. Good days...

As stated before, average organic reach conversion in September 2013 has

become only 4.63%.

What have you done Facebook? Really, what have you done? At 2012,

whatever you post on a page, there was a stability. If you have 100 people on

the page, you nearly guarantee that 15 people see that. At 2013, organic reach,

the main boost of pages promotion has decreased to 1/3. Does Facebook need

that much of advertising? It seems like they do.

14.27

15.28

8.42

11.84

14.67

3.39

4.44

21.20

4.64

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Link

Photo

Question

Status Update

Video

Organic Reach Conversion Comparision (Sept 2012 vs 2013

2013

2012

%

Page 12: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

11

%

Maybe, we are missing something, maybe we had supported more posts with

ads? Since we learned from September 2013 analysis that Facebook Ads can

boost your organic reach. Nope. We have used Paid methods in 46 of total 830

posts in September 2012.

So, post percentage for which used Facebook ads in September 2012 is 5.54%

and in September 2013 is 6.3%.

5.54 6.3

14.8

4.63

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sept 2012 Sept 2013

Paid Post % vs Organic Reach Conversion

Paid Post Percentage Organic Reach Conversion

Page 13: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

12

%

There is not so much need to compare Engagement Rates w/t Organic Reach

but data may tell us something. Since, I’d like to see the effect of Engagement

Rate on Organic Reach, it will be enough to check if total number of

engagement metrics (answers+comments+shares+likes)/Organic Reach and

take the percentage and analyze the rate.

Even if the Organic Reach Conversion has dramatically fallen, our engagement

rates become higher which also proves that Facebook does not take the pages

engagement scores into consideration when calculating Organic Reach.

14.8

4.63

0.58

0.93

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sept 2012 Sept 2013

Engagement Rate vs Organic Reach Conversion

Organic Reach Conversion Engagement Rate

Page 14: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

13

I tried to summarize the current state of Organic Reach and the main factors

that seem to affect I believe the most crucial metric on Facebook Pages. Here

are the few results that I add if you want to utilize the reach.

1- Don’t Trust Fan Amount: In one year, biggest downfall of organic reach

has become losing its stability. If you are seeing a post that reaches

nearly 15% of fans organically, do not trust it because your next post may

just reach up to 2% of your fans.

2- Use Facebook Ads regularly: We cannot think of a brand that chooses to

address a million fans on Facebook which do not regularly use Facebook

Ads. Paid reach has to turn into something as normal as organic reach.

3- Boost Viral Reach: Even if Organic Reach does not affect from the

Engagement Rate, there is an another reach I did not directly mention in

the report: Viral Reach. Viral Reach grows by engagement that post

gathers. Getting lots of Viral Reach is not too easy by but only trusting

organic reach however remember the first suggestions. With

combination of Organic and Paid Reach, Viral Reach can become your

secret weapon. So, if Facebook suggest you to boost your post via

Facebook Ads, just do it. Also, develop campaigns.

4- Try Different Post Types: Average Status Update on my screen takes up 2

cm space. On the other hand, average Photo takes up 10 cm space.

Photo will definitely attract more users if they see it. The analysis states

that average Status Update reaches nearly 4 times more users than any

other post type. So if your Status Update gathers some viral reach, its

size expands into 5 cm with the addition of story (your friend liked this,

your friend commented on that etc.) which can create a powerful

conversion time to time.

Page 15: Facebook Organic Reach Analysis (September 2012 vs September 2013)

Head Turners of Today’s

Attention Economy

By:

Candaş Demir

http://tr.linkedin.com/in/candasdemir

[email protected]

http://41-29.com http://facebook.com/4129agency http://twitter.com/41_29 http://vimeo.com/reel4129 http://www.behance.net/fortyone29 http://www.linkedin.com/company/41-29-

Atatürk Oto Sanayi Sitesi, 52. Sokak No: 4 ,

34337 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

+90 212 245 85 30