facilitating changes in complex humid systems: the role of foresight by marie de lattre-gasquet
TRANSCRIPT
Facilitating changes
in complex humid systems: the role of foresight
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet
CGIAR Consortium Office and Cirad
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Outline of the presentation
1. Why foresight can be useful to researchers working on systems.
2. Examples of foresight processes and their usefulness:
1. The futures of cocoa and rubber
2. Climate change scenarios
3. Agrimonde
4. On-going foresight exercise on futures of cropping and livestock systems
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Why foresight can be useful to researchers
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Foresight can help you to prepare to changes and to facilitate desired changes
Anticipation
Appropriation Action
AN ATTITUDE A PROCESS
Systemic approach Alerting on uncertainties. Taking care of mankind.
Past to look far away.
Collective work and intelligence to imagine
together possible futures
Acting to create the most desirable future
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Looking back to imagine possible futures
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
What changed in the
past 20 to 40 years?
What is currently
changing?
What could change in the
next 20 to 40 years?
Possible futures
Desirable futures
Normative desired future
Breakthroughs
Seeds of change Uncertainties
What is the situation today?
LT tendencies
Bruntland Report
2000 2015 2050
Increasing consciouness that resources are limited
Belief that resources are unlimited.
Systemic approach
FREEDOM Many possible futures Monitor the realities Look under the radar
POWER No choice
or no more the choice?
Will
WILL
“There is no fair wind for one who knows not whither
he is bound” (Seneca)
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
The future: something to be created
Levels of granularities of foresights vary
Geograhical
scale
Global
Ag systeme
Continent
Sub continent
Country
subb-region
Fonction Subject Megatrends Thematic
Feed, transport,, Health, energy, S&T, Demography, climate scale Land use, empower Rubber, cocoa, forest, i
rrigation…
Land use Sénégal Forest Landes Gascogne
The future of food security,
environments and livelihoods in
Eastern Africa
The future of food and farming
Agrimonde GIEC
UNEP emerging environmental issues
Now for the long term
Forêts Bassin du Congo
Perspectives agricoles
Aquatic agricultural systems ?
Global livestock pdtion systems
Filière équine française
The Protein puzzle (NL)
Time
+ 5
+ 100
Foresight methods vary and evolve
Economy
Environnement Society
Qualitative approach: vision, scenarios with narratives, etc.
Quantitative
approach
Models : BAU,
what if
Modèles, par
ex IMPACT,
GLOBIOM,
MAgPIE,
GTEM, etc.
Getting involved in a foresight process
1. Defining the question (or the site), choosing the time horizon and identifying key stakeholders
2. Constructing the system and identifying key variables
3. Gathering data and drafting hypotheses
4. Exploring possible futures, building scenarios
5. Outlining strategies 6. Continuing to monitor changes
What has to change? Who is ordering/paying for the foresight? With whom will it be done? What changes to implement? With whom can it be changed?
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Examples of foresight exercises and their usefulness for researchers,
for farmers, for policy-makers…
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Foresight exercices on cocoa and rubber in the late 1990s
• A knowledge base and key variables • Scenarios :
– Continuation of current trends – Sustainable development of the commodity chain – Production crisis
• Explicit and collective view on future of commodities • New research priorities, partnerships and networks • From a closed system to a political arena
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
CCAFS scenarios
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Focused on guiding change in decision-making: • Scenarios are tools to scope regional key issues • Involvement of policy- makers • Combination of socio- economic and climate
Agrimonde
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Agrimonde has shown that agroecology works if global food demand decreases, but also that you cannot discuss the transformation of food production separately from a discussion on the transformation of food demand (towards sufficiency).
Livestock Cropping systems
Biotechnical and socio-économic impasses
Agronomic dynamics in scenarios
Sustainable
Intensification
Agro-ecoology
Intensification of input use and specialization
Autonomy Inputs efficiency improvement Crop – livestock associations Rotations Reducing losses Use and transformation of waste (methane) Closer to consumers Resistant varieties Natural fertilizers and pesticides ……
Production diversification
Production decline by biological, climatic or technical failure
Land losses (erosion, expropriation, expulsion division)
Capital losses
Lack of labor forces
Cropping system pathways
Sociotechnical transitions to sustainable agriculture
Collapse
14
Agrimonde-Terra: on-going work.
Source: Agrimonde-Terra
Conventional Agricultural
Intensification
Modes of production and locations of production can change
Local CS Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Rice based cropping
system: Vietnam
Rice (twice a year) or
Rice (summer) - Maize
(winter)
Rice twice a year on
all areas (using AWD
alternate wet and
dry): watersaving
which needs a great
farmers coordination
Rice twice a year (no
water savings used
due to lack of
coordination) trend
scenario
Rice only in summer
(plenty of water);
Diversified dry crops
during winter
(maize, beans,
vegetables) =
watersaving
Rice based cropping
system: Mali
Single cropping
Rice/Rice 65 % Double
cropping Rice/Rice 15
% DbCrp Rice/Market
Gardening 10 %
Sugar Cane 10 %
Same system, water
being shared
between users.
Water use in dry
season for rice:
double rice sequence
No more double rice
cropping sequence,
water (in dry
season)used for
agro-industrial crops
(Sugar Cane /
Jatropha) Priority to
investors
New production
systems involving
Cattle breeding for
African market with
irrigated forage
crops, industrial
crops and double
rice cropping for
family farmers Water
use in dry season for
forages
Rice based cropping
system: Thailand
Rainfed paddy rice in
wet season,
supplement irrigation
in dry season
Massive shift to
higher yielding,
lower quality rice
(due to price support
policy)
Massive
development of dry
season irrigation
Massive gradual
withdrawal of aging
farmers
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Futures of Landes de Gascogne
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Scenarios Opportunities and let it go
Attractivity and qualitiy
Large self-sufficient region
Mosaic and diversity
A better understanding of the different roles of the forest and the interests of different actors and their relationships A consensus on the future of the region
To identify and facilitate changes
in complex systems
Anticipation Appropriation Action
• Concentrating on the long-term • Revealing uncertainties • Imagining several possible
futures help to build theory of change
• Anticipating development outcomes
• Communication between varied stakeholders
• Empowering smallholders
• Building consensus on a shared vision
• New research priorities and funding
• New policies • Risk management
Foresight is an attitude and a process
What are your needs?
Level Context Other topics
Direction of CRP
Geographical flagship with different sites
Cluster of activities
Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
Several ways of helping you: • Analyzing information on results of foresight exercices What’s new in thinking about the futures of AR4D? • Providing information when asked • Network – Forward Thinking Platform • Facilitating foresight exercises
Thank you for
your attention