i

fmpact of eeuristics on Brand Choice tith ppecial oeference to cjCdK

qhesis=pubmitted=to=the==m~dm~shree=arK=aK=vK=m~tiä=rniversityI=aep~rtment=of=_usiness=j~n~gement=

in=p~rti~ä=fuäfiääment=of=the=requirements=for=the=~w~rd=of=the=aegree=of==

alCTlo lc mefilplmev

fn

Brpfkbpp jAkAdbjbkT =

pubmitted by joK pACefk AkAkT abpejrhe

Ebnrollment koK DYP-PhD-066100009F

===

oesearch duide arK oK dlmAi

afobCTloI abAk C ela

mAajApeobb aoK aKvK mATfi rkfsbopfTvI abmAoTjbkT lc Brpfkbpp jAkAdbjbkTI

pector QI mlot koK NMI CBa BelapurI kavi jumbai – QMM SNQ

August OMNM

ii

fmpact of eeuristics on Brand Choice tith ppecial oeference to cMCd

iii

abCiAoATflk

f= hereby= decä~re= th~t= the= thesis= entitäed= “fmpact of eeuristics on Brand Choice

tith ppecial oeference to cjCd” submitted=for=the=^w~rd=of=aoctor=of=mhiäosophy=

in=_usiness=j~n~gement=~t=the=m~dm~shree=arK=aKvK=m~tiä=rniversity=aep~rtment=of=

_usiness=j~n~gement= is=my=origin~ä=work=~nd=the=thesis=h~s=not=formed=the=b~sis=

for=the=~w~rd=of=~ny=degreeI=~ssoci~te=shipI=feääowship=or=~ny=other=simiä~r=titäesK=

mlaceW kavi jumbaiK aateW ==========pignature of duide pignature of pignature of ptudent eead of aeptK =

iv

CboTfcfCATb

qhis= is= to= certify= th~t= the= thesis= entitäed= “fmpact of eeuristics on Brand Choice

tith ppecial oeference to cjCd” ~nd=submitted=by=jrK pachin aeshmukh=is=~=

bon~fide= rese~rch= work= for= the= ~w~rd= of= the= aoctor= of= mhiäosophy= in= _usiness=

j~n~gement==~t=the=m~dm~shree=arK=aK=vK=m~tiä=rniversity=aep~rtment=of=_usiness=

j~n~gement=in=p~rti~ä=fuäfiääment=of=the=requirements=for=the=~w~rd=of=the=aegree=of=

aoctor of mhilosophy in Business janagement= ~nd= th~t= the= thesis= h~s= not=

formed= the= b~sis= for= the=~w~rd=previousäy=of=~ny=degreeI=dipäom~I=~ssoci~te= shipI=

feääowship=or=~ny=other=simiä~r=titäe=of=~ny=rniversity=or=fnstitutionK=

=^äso=it=is=certified=th~t=the=thesis=represents=~n=independent=work=on=the=p~rt=of=the=

c~ndid~teK=

====mlaceW kavi jumbai aateW ==== pignature of the pignature of duide eead of the aepartment

v

Acknowledgement =

=f=wouäd=first=äike=to=th~nk=my=prim~ry=~dvisorI=guide=~nd=mentorX=arK=oKdop~äK=ee=h~s=

inspired=~nd=encour~ged=me=to=write=this=thesisK=eis=const~nt=support=~nd=inv~äu~bäe=

~dvice=h~s=~äw~ys=guided=me=tow~rds=the=right=directionK=curthermoreI=he=h~s=been=

my= roäe= modeä= ~s= ~n= ~c~demic= rese~rcherK= fn= p~rticuä~rI= arK= dop~ä= h~s= ~äw~ys=

heäped=me=sh~rpen=my=insightI=intuitionI=~nd=~äso=h~s=en~bäed=me=to=~chieve=~=highJ

äeveä=methodoäogic~ä=sophistic~tionK=f=couäd=not=h~ve=compäeted=~nything=without=him=

~nd=f=owe=wh~t=f=~m=tod~y=to=himK=

f= gr~tefuääy= ~cknowäedge= the= ~dvice= of= mrofessor= ~nd= ee~dI= oese~rch= bxtension=

CentreI=m~dm~shree=aKvK=m~tiä= rniversity’s=aep~rtment=of= _usiness= j~n~gementI=

arK=mr~dip=j~njrek~rK=f=h~ve=äe~rned=immenseäy=from=the=inter~ctions=with=himK=f=~m=

gr~tefuä=~äso=to=arK=fo~nnis=ktzoufr~sI=aep~rtment=of=pt~tisticsI=^thens=rniversity=of=

bconomics=~nd=_usinessI=dreeceI=~nd=pteve=jiääerI=tin_rdp=fnstitute=rKhK=for=their=

v~äu~bäe=guid~nce=in=constructing=softw~re=progr~ms=for=my=thesisK==

f= dedic~te= my= work= to= my= ä~te= gr~ndf~ther= arK= CKaK= aeshmukhI= the= first= fndi~n=

dovernor= of= oeserve= b~nk= of= fndi~I= cormer= cin~nce= jinister= of= fndi~= ~nd= cormer=

Ch~irm~n=of=rniversity=dr~nts=Commission=of= fndi~=who=h~s=been=~= roäe=modeä= to=

me= ~ää= my= äifeK= f= ~äso= th~nk= my= f~ther= for= encour~ging= me= to= compäete= this=

dissert~tionK=

Signature of Student

vi

Contents=Chapter

no pubtitle

noK Chapter name mage no

= = iist=of=~bbrevi~tions===

N=

= = iist=of=t~bäes===

P=

= = iist=of=figures===

Q=

= = bxecutive pummary =

T - PR

N fntroduction

PT - SM

= NWN= qhe=lverview===

PT=

= NWO= eeuristics=–=wh~t=it=is?==

QM=

= NWP= _r~nd=Choice=–=aefinition==

QQ=

= NWQ= c~ctors=fnfäuencing=rse=of=eeuristics=by=Consumers==

QR=

= NWR= qhe=pt~tistic~ä=jodeä=for=_r~nd=Choice==

RP==

= NWS= jodeä=bxecution==

RV=

O iiterature oeview mart f – eeuristics C Biases

SO - UV

= OWN= fntroduction===

SO=

= OWO= qypes=of=eeuristics=fdentified==

SP=

= OWP= _i~ses==

TM=

= OWQ= _ounded=o~tion~äity==

TQ=

= OWR= pome=eeuristics=fdentified=in=j~rketing==

TR=

= OWS= ^n=bffort=oeduction=cr~mework=for=ptudying=eeuristics===

TT=

vii

Chapter no

pubtitle noK

Chapter name mage no

P iiterature oeview mart – ff Brand Choice jodels

VN - NMU

= PWN= fntroduction==

VN=

= PWO= aom~in=of=Choice=oese~rch==

VR=

= PWP= mrogress==

NMM=

= PWQ= i~tent=s~ri~bäes==

NMN=

= PWR= Combining=oeve~äed=C=pt~ted=mreferences=

NMO=

= PWS= _~yesi~n=mrocedure==

NMO=

= PWT= _eh~vior~ä=ayn~mics=C=fnter~ctions==

NMP=

= PWU= a~t~=fmput~tion==

NMQ=

= PWV= aiscrete=C=Continuous=jodeäs==

NMR=

= PWNM= poftw~re==

NMR=

= PWNN== Ch~ääenges===

NMS=

= PWNO= jodeä=cormuä~tion=C=bstim~tion===

NMS=

= PWNP= oese~rch=d~p==

NMT=

Q ptatement of mroblem

NNM - NNS

= QWN= lbjectives=of=ptudy==

NNM=

= QWO= qhe=mrobäem=pt~tement==

NNO=

= QWP= fmport~nce=of=ptudy==

NNP=

= QWQ= _enefits=of=ptudy==

NNP=

= QWR= qhe=eypotheses==

NNQ=

R mlan of ptudy – oesearch jethodology

NNU - NOQ

= RWN= rnderst~nding=the=fssue==

NNU=

viii

Chapter no

pubtitle noK

Chapter name mage no

= RWO= a~t~=Coääection==

NNV=

= RWP= fnstrument=of=a~t~=Coääection==

NOM=

= RWQ= p~mpäing=mä~n==

NON=

= RWR= pt~tistic~ä=qooäs==

NOP=

= RWS= poftw~re=rsed==

NOP=

= RWT= iimit~tions=of=ptudy==

NOP=

S Constructing the Brand Choice jodel part – f rse of eeuristics in Brand Choice aecision

NOT - NQT

= SWN= qhe=Choice=mrocess==

NOT=

= SWO= Ch~r~cteristics=of=Choice=mrocess==

NPM=

= SWP= thy=do=Consumers=rse=eeuristics==

NPN=

= SWQ= d~thering=C=rsing=fnform~tion==

NPO=

= SWR= bxtern~ä=fnform~tion=pources==

NPR=

= SWS= k~ture=of=fnform~tion=qr~nsferred==

NPT=

= SWT= pystem~tic=aifferences==

NPV=

= SWU= bffects=of=aifferences=in=bxperience=of=Consumers=

NPV=

= SWV= bffects=of=aifferences=in=aur~biäity=of=mroducts=

NQN=

T Constructing the Brand Choice jodel part – ff The Background for Brand Choice jodel

NQV - NTP

= TWN= _~yesi~n=fnference==

NQV=

= TWO= aefinition=of=pt~tistic~ä=jodeä==

NRM=

= TWP= _~ye’s=qheorem==

NRN=

= TWQ= jodeä=_~sed=_~yesi~n=fnference==

NRO=

= TWR= fnference=rsing=Conjug~te=mrior= NRS=

ix

aistribution== TWS= fntroduction=to=j~rkov=Ch~in=

=NRS=

= TWT= jCjC=^ägorithm=in=_~yesi~n=fnference=

NRM=

= TWU= dibbs=p~mpäing==

NSO=

= TWV= aevi~nce=fnform~tion=Criterion==

NSQ=

= TWNM= tin_rdp=softw~re==

NSS=

U Constructing the Brand Choice jodel part – fff The Brand Choice jodel

NTR - ONV

= UWN= ^ccommod~ting=eeuristics=in=_r~nd=choice=

NTR=

= UWO= Consumer’s=Choice==

NTT=

= UWP= ^n=bffort=oeduction=cr~mework==

NUM=

= UWQ= qhe=keed=to=^ccommod~te=eeuristics=in=_r~nd=Choice=

NUP=

= UWR= qhe=pt~tistic~ä=jodeä=for=_r~nd=Choice=

NUR=

= UWS= qhe=eeterogeneity===

ONP=

= UWT= lther=pt~tistic~ä=aistributions==

ONR=

= UWU= lccurrence==

ONU=

= UWV= a~t~=Coääection==

ONV=

= UWNM= bstim~tion=of=jodeä=m~r~meters==

ONV=

V tinBrdp Code for Brand Choice jodel

OON - OOS

= VWN= tin_rdp=Code=for=^s_j==

OON=

= VWO= tin_rdp=Code=for=ls_j= OOO==

= VWP= tin_rdp=Code=for=au~ä=jode=–=qime=fnv~ri~nt=

OOP=

= VWQ= tin_rdp=Code=for=au~ä=jode=–=qime=s~ri~nt=

OOR=

NM cindings

OOU - OPV

NN Conclusions C OQO - OQS

x

oecommendations

= NNWN= Concäusion=C=oecommend~tion==

OQO=

= NNWO= iimit~tions=of=ptudy==

OQQ=

= NNWP= cuture=pcope=for=oese~rch==

OQR=

= = _ibäiogr~phy===

OQT=

= = nuestionn~ire== ORS==

= = a~t~=^n~äysis=in=tin_rdp= OSN==

= = a~t~=mresent~tion=in=tin_rdp==

OTM=

=

1

iist of Abbreviations prK no

Abbreviation cull corm

N= cjCd= c~st=joving=Consumer=doods=

=

O= ^s_j= ^ttribute=s~äue=_~se=jode=

=

P= ls_j= lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jode=

=

Q= au~ä= jodeJ=qfs=

au~ä=jode=qime=fnv~ri~nt=

=

R= au~ä= jode= –qs=

au~ä=jode=qime=s~ri~nt=

=

S= tin_rdp= tindow’s= sersion= for= _~yesi~n=fnference=rsing=dibbs=p~mpäing=

=

T= jCjC= j~rkov= Ch~in= jonte= C~räo=jethod=

=

U= orj= o~ndom=rtiäity=jodeä=

=

V= eCj= eybrid=Choice=jodeä=

=

NM= ^fC= ^k~ike=fnform~tion=Criterion=

=

NN= _fC= _~yesi~n=fnform~tion=Criterion=

2

=

prK no

Abbreviation cull corm

NO= afC= aevi~nce=fnform~tion=Criterion=

=

NP= jki= juätinomi~ä= iogistic= oegression=cunction=

=

NQ= iKiKd= fndependent= ~nd= identic~ääy=distributed=s~mpäe=

=

NR= ff^= fndependent= of= frreäev~nt=^ätern~tives=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

3

iist of Tables =

=

prKno Table noK

aescription of table mage no

N= RWN= qhe=p~mpäe=

=

NNS=

O= ^WPWN= cindings=of=^s_j=moduäe=

=

OQR=

P= ^WPWO= cindings=of=ls_j=moduäe=

=

OQU=

Q= ^WPWP= cindings= of= au~ä= jode= qime= fnv~ri~nt=moduäe=

=

OQV=

R= ^WP≤Q= cindings= of= au~ä= jode= qime= s~ri~nt=moduäe=

=

ORN=

S= ^WPWR= pumm~ry= of= _et~= Coefficients= of= the=four=moduäes==

=

ORP=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

4

iist of cigures =

prK no

aescription mage no

NWN= fnform~tion=mrocessing=jodeä=

=

QV=

PWN= aom~in=of=Choice=oese~rch=

=

VN=

PWO= Choice=_eh~vior=

=

VQ=

PWP= eybrid=Choice=jodeä=

=

VQ=

PWQ= qhe=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=

=

NMQ=

UWN= qhe=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=oevisited=

=

NSP=

UWO= Convergence=of=a~t~=

=

NUQ=

UWP= iogistic=oegression=Curve=

=

NVN=

NMWN= cäow=Ch~rt=fndic~ting=C~äcuä~tion=of=m~r~meters=of=joduäes=~nd=qr~ce=mäots=

ONS=

NMWO= qr~ce=mäots=for=^s_j=

=

ONU=

NMWP= qr~ce=mäots=for=ls_j==

=

OOM=

5

NMWQ= qr~ce=mäots=for=au~ä=jode=–=qime=fnv~ri~nt=

=

OON=

NMWQWO= Convergence=of=a~t~=au~ä=jode=–=qime=s~ri~nt=

=

OOQ=

6

bxecutive pummary

7

bxecutive pummary =

“fmp~ct= of= eeuristics= on= _r~nd= Choice= with= ppeci~ä= oeference= to= cjCd=

Ef~st= moving= consumer= goodsF≤= is= the= study= to= underst~nd= the= effects= of=

heuristics= used= by= consumers= in= their= decision= m~king= process= of= br~nd=

choiceK= pimon= ENVVOFI= the= f~ther= of= heuristics= rese~rch= in= judgment= ~nd=

decision= m~king= defines= heuristics=~s= “methods= of= ~rriving= ~t= s~tisf~ctory=

soäutions= with= modest= ~mounts= of= comput~tions≤I= suggesting= th~t= peopäe=

seek= to= reduce= the= efforts= ~ssoci~ted= with= decision= m~king= processK=

Consumers= ~dopt= short= cuts= in= their= decision= m~king= process= of= br~nd=

choiceK= qhey= ~re= methods= of= soäving= probäems= or= situ~tions= where= no=

formuä~s=existK=eeuristics=therefore=c~n=be=referred=to=~s=methods=th~t=use=

principäes= of= effort= reduction= ~nd= simpäific~tionK= _y= definitionI= heuristics=

must= ~ääow= consumers= to= process= inform~tion= in= ~= äess= effortfuä= m~nner=

th~n=one=wouäd=expect=from=~n=optim~ä=decision=ruäeK=^K=keweää=~nd=pimon=

ENVTOFI=used=the=word=heuristics=to=describe=simpäe=processes=th~t=repä~ce=

compäex=~ägorithms= in=decision= m~kingK= lne=m~y=be= required= to= process=

compäex=~ägorithms=whiäe=m~king=~=decisionK=

_r~nd= choice= is= defined= ~s= ~= decision= m~king= process= conducted= by=

consumers= for= seäecting= ~=p~rticuä~r= br~nd= from=~=number=of= br~nds= th~t=

~re= present= in= hisLher= consider~tion= set= through= the= ~ppäic~tion= of= some=

choice=ruäesK==

qhis= thesis= is= concerned= with= modeäing= the= beh~vior= of= ~= consumer=

choosing=~n=~ätern~tive=Ebr~nd=choiceF=from=~=set=of=mutu~ääy=excäusive=~nd=

8

coääectiveäy=exh~ustive=~ätern~tivesK=qhe=modeä=does=not=~ttempt=to=predict=

deterministic~ääy= the= choice= of= ~n= individu~äK= o~ther= it= predicts= the=

prob~biäity=of=~=consumer=picking=up=~n=~ätern~tiveK=curther=the=emph~sis=is=

on= c~pturing= the= underäying= process= undert~ken= by= ~n= individu~ä= whiäe=

choosing=~n=~ätern~tiveK=

jicroeconomic= theory= concentr~tes= on= the= choice= process= by= postuä~ting=

th~t= consumer= is= ~n= optimizing= bä~ck= boxK= qhus= the= underäying= decision=

protocoä= ~ssumed= is= th~t= consumer= chooses= ~n= ~ätern~tive= which=

m~ximizes= hisLher= utiäity= or= weääJbeingK= qhe= ~ttributes= of= different=

~ätern~tivesI= individu~ä= ch~r~cteristicsI= p~st= experienceI= ~mbient=

inform~tion=~nd=situ~tion~ä=constr~ints=~re=inputs=to=the=bä~ck=boxI=whiäe=the=

observed= choice= is= the= outputK= qhe= oper~tion~äiz~tion= of= the=

m~croeconomic=choice=theory=reäies=he~viäy=on=the=individu~ä’s=preferences=

tow~rds=~ätern~tives= ~s=eäicited= in= the=~ctu~ä= m~rket=environmentI=usu~ääy=

referred= to= ~s= reve~äed= preferencesK= curther= it= ~ssumes= th~t= consumers=

h~ve= perfect= inform~tion= ~bout= ~v~iä~bäe= ~ätern~tives= ~nd= their= ~ttributesK=

_ut=in=re~äityI=~=consumer=h~s=äimited=prior=inform~tion=~bout=consumption=

opportunities= ~nd= inform~tion= processing= c~p~biäitiesK= qhe= consumer’s=

preferences= to= different= ~ätern~tives= m~y= cont~in= r~ndom= components=

m~inäy= due= to= the= in~biäity= of= the= rese~rcher= to= me~sure= ~ää= the= inputs=

preciseäyK=po=the=theory=is=oper~tion~äized=by=äinking=the=r~ndom=preference=

to= the= choice= prob~biäities= through= ~= p~r~meterized= st~tistic~ä= modeäK=

bssenti~ääy= the= modeä= äinks= directäy= the= observed= inputs= to= the= observed=

9

outputI= ~nd= modeä= p~r~meters= ~re= then= estim~ted= through= st~tistic~ä=

proceduresK=

Consumers’=choice=is=inherentäy=~=dyn~mic=processK=oese~rch=tiää=this=d~te=

indic~tes= th~t= whether= one= is= observing= ~= routine= purch~se= of= br~nds= or=

once= –= in= –= äife= time= choices= of= housingI= choices= m~de= in= the= present=

impäicitäy=refäects=wh~t=h~s=been=äe~rnt=from=the=p~st=~nd=often=expect~tions=

of= the= futureK= vetI= whiäe= the= import~nce= of= underst~nding= the= n~ture= of=

dyn~mic=infäuences=on=choice=is=wideäy=recognizedI=the=knowäedge=of=how=

choices=evoäve=rem~ins=highäy= fr~gmentedK=qhe=~ttempt= in= this=study=is= to=

underst~nd= the= dyn~mics= of= the= choice= procedureI= especi~ääy= heuristicsI=

~nd=to=find=the=effects=of=these=dyn~mics=on=the=choice=modeäs=m~rketers=

use=to=predict=future=choice=prob~biäitiesK=

s~rious=choice=modeäs=~re=~v~iä~bäe=tod~y=for=c~äcuä~ting=the=future=choice=

prob~biäities= ~nd= m~rket= sh~re= of= br~ndsK= qhe= use= of= heuristics= by=

consumers= m~y= ch~nge= the=w~y=of= c~äcuä~ting= future= choice=prob~biäities=

~nd= m~rket= sh~re= ~s= the= existing= choice= modeäs= do= not= ~ccommod~te=

heuristicsK==

h~hnem~n= ~nd= qversky= h~ve= identified= three=cognitive= heuristics=used= in=

decision=m~king=which=~re=described=beäow=

oepresentativeness

oepresent~tiveness=refers=to=m~king=~n=uncert~inty=judgment=on=the=b~sis=

of=the=degree=to=which=it=is=EiF=which=is=simiä~r=in=essenti~ä=properties=to=its=

10

p~rent= popuä~tion= ~nd= EiiF= refäects= the= s~äient= fe~tures= of= the= process= by=

which=it=is=gener~tedK==

Availability

^v~iä~biäity= is= used= to= estim~te= frequency= or= prob~biäity= by= the= e~se= with=

which= inst~nces= or= ~ssoci~tions= come= to= mindK= fn= contr~st= to=

represent~tiveness=which=invoäves=~ssessments=of=simiä~rity=or=connot~tive=

dist~nceI= ~v~iä~biäity= refäects= ~ssessment= of= ~ssoci~tive= dist~nceK=

^v~iä~biäity=h~s=been=reported= to=be= infäuenced=by= im~gin~biäityI= f~miäi~rity=

~nd= vividnessI= ~nd= h~s= been= reported= by= evidence= of= stereotype= ~nd=

scen~rio=thinkingK=

Anchoring –and-Adjustment

^nchoring= ~nd= ~djustment= invoäves= st~rting= from= ~n= initi~ä= v~äue= th~t= is=

~djusted=to=yieäd=the=fin~ä=~nswerK=qhe=initi~ä=v~äueI=or=st~rting=pointI=m~y=be=

suggested=by= the= formuä~tion=of= the=probäemI=or= it=m~y=be= the= resuät= of=~=

p~rti~ä=comput~tionK=fn=either=c~seI=~djustments=~re=typic~ääy=insufficientK==

cactors fnfluencing the rse of eeuristics by Consumers

qhe=re~sons=for=use=of=heuristics=~re=m~nyI=out=of=which=the=most=import~nt=

ones=~re=considered=for=this=studyK==

NK iimitations of euman jemory

lne= of= the= m~in= re~sons= for= consumers= to= use= heuristics= is= the=

äimit~tions=put=by=the=hum~n=memory=on=processing=of=d~t~K=^t=one=

11

point= of= timeI= hum~n= memory= c~n= ~ttend= T= H= or= –= O= chunks= of=

inform~tionK==

OK The teighted Additive Algorithm

^Kkeweää= ~nd= pimon= ENVTOFI= used= the= word= heuristics= to= describe=

simpäe= processes= th~t= repä~ce= compäex= ~ägorithms= in= decision=

m~kingK=lne=m~y=be=required=to=process=compäex=~ägorithms=whiäe=

m~king=~=decisionK= fn= judgment=~nd=decision=m~kingI= the=weighted=

~dditive= ruäe= is=one=such=compäex=~ägorithm=for=~rriving=~t=compäex=

decisions= ~nd= ~ccur~te= judgmentsK= ^ccording= to= the= weighted=

~dditive= ruäeI= consumers=consider=~ää= the=~v~iä~bäe=~ätern~tives=~nd=

cues= for= e~ch= ~ätern~tiveK= Consumers= must= weight= e~ch= cue=

~ccording=to=objective=or=subjective=impressions=of=how=it=contributes=

to= the= over~ää= v~äueK= lnce= the= consumer= ~rrive= ~t= ~= weighting=

principäe=~nd=~ssign=weights= to=e~ch=cueI= they=must= then=c~äcuä~te=

the=v~äue= for=e~ch=~ätern~tiveK=b~ch=cue’s=v~äue= is=muätipäied=by= its=

corresponding=weightI=~nd=these=products=~re=summed=to=yieäd= the=

over~ää= v~äue= of= the= ~ätern~tiveK= rätim~teäy= using= the= weighted=

~dditive= ruäe= consistentäy= requires= peopäe= to= expend= effort= on= five=

t~sksK=

NK= fdentifying= ~ää= cues= –= ~ää= reäev~nt= pieces= of= inform~tion= must= be=

~cknowäedgedK=

12

OK=oec~ääing=~nd=storing=~ää= the=cues=v~äues=–=the=v~äues=for= the=pieces=of=

inform~tion= must= either= be= rec~ääed= from= memory= or= processed= from=

extern~ä=sourceK=

PK=^ssessing= the=weights=of=e~ch= cue=–= the= import~nce= of=e~ch= piece=of=

inform~tion=must=be=determinedK==

QK= fntegr~ting= inform~tion= for= ~ää= ~ätern~tives= –= the= weighted= cue= v~äues=

must=be=summed=to=yieäd=~n=over~ää=utiäity=v~äue=or=utiäity=for=the=~ätern~tiveK=

fn=the=c~se=of=inference=or=judgmentI=this=is=the=fin~ä=stepI=~nd=it=produces=

the=t~rget=judgmentI=~nd=it=produces=the=t~rget=judgment=v~äueK=

RK= ^ää= ~ätern~tives= must= be= comp~redI= ~nd= then= the= ~ätern~tive= with= the=

highest=v~äue=shouäd=be=seäectedK==

Cäe~räyI=such=~ägorithm=requires=gre~t=ment~ä=effortX=howeverI=peopäe=do=not=

h~ve= unäimited= processing= c~p~cityK= meopäe= must= oper~te= within= the=

constr~ints= imposed= both= by= their= cognitive= resources= ~nd= the= t~sk=

environment=–=~=concept=known=~s=bounded=r~tion~äityK=^s=the=dem~nd=on=

äimited= cognitive= resources= incre~seI= peopäe= m~y= empäoy= methods= or=

str~tegies= th~t= reduce= effort= they= expend= on= comput~tionK= eeuristics=

therefore= c~n= be= referred= to= ~s= methods= th~t= use= principäes= of= effort=

reduction=~nd=simpäific~tionK=_y=definitionI=heuristics=must=~ääow=consumers=

to= process= inform~tion= in= ~= äess= effortfuä= m~nner= th~n= one= wouäd= expect=

from=~n=optim~ä=decision=ruäeK==

=

=

13

The mroblem ptatement

aue= to= constr~ints= imposed= by= äimited= cognitive= resources= ~nd= t~sk=

environmentI=consumers=m~y=empäoy=methods=~nd=str~tegies=th~t=reduce=

efforts=they=expend=on=comput~tions=for=decision=m~kingK=o~ther=ev~äu~ting=

the=~ttributes=of=~ää=the=br~nds=in=their=consider~tion=setI=they=reäy=on=short=

cuts=to=decide=up=on=~=br~nd=for=purch~seK=eeuristics=m~y=be=good=~t=times=

when=consumers=end=up=choosing=the=m~rketer’s=br~ndI=but=the=b~d=side=of=

it= is= when= they= choose= competitor’s= br~nd= ~nd= äe~d= the= m~rketer= ~str~yK=

qhis=is=when=heuristics=infäuence=consumer’s=judgment=to=the=point=of=bi~sK=

^= m~rketer= needs= to= underst~nd= such= bi~s= whiäe= computing= future=

prob~biäities=of=br~nd=choice=~nd=m~rket=sh~reK==

qhe= recent= rese~rch= in= the= ~re~= of= psychoäogy= into= the= heuristics= ~nd=

bi~ses=th~t=consumers=use=to=simpäify=decisions=is=äikeäy=to=modify=the=strict=

utiäity=m~ximiz~tion=modeäs= th~t=one=often=~ppäy= to=c~äcuä~te= future=choice=

prob~biäitiesK==

lbjectives of ptudy

qhe=prim~ry=objective=of=this=work=is=to=deveäop=~=fr~mework=for=modeäing=

choice= beh~vior= which= is= consistent= with= the= existing= beh~vior~ä= theoriesI=

emph~sizes= ~= c~us~ä= structur~ä= formuä~tionI= m~them~tic~ääy= tr~ct~bäe= ~nd=

empiric~ääy= verifi~bäeK= qhe= study= shouäd= be= fäexibäe= enough= to= c~pture=

unobserved=heterogeneity=in=the=choice=beh~vior=stemming=from=

^K= Choice=sets=considered=by=consumersK=

14

_K= q~ste=v~ri~tions=~cross=consumers==

CK= ^ttitudes= ~nd= perceptions= of= consumers= since= underäying= choice=

process=h~s=~=signific~nt=psychoäogic~ä=component=

aK= aecision=protocoäs=~dopted=by=consumers=in=~rriving=~t=~=choiceK=

qo= eä~bor~te= furtherI= the= study= sh~ää= expäore= the= possibiäity= of= consumers=

using= heuristics= in= their= decision= m~king= process= of= br~nd= choiceK= qhe=

study=shouäd=heäp=to=underst~nd=the=dyn~mics=of=the=choice=procedure=~nd=

to=find=the=effects=of=these=dyn~mics=on=the=choice=modeäs=m~rketers=use=to=

predict=future=choice=prob~biäities=with=speci~ä=reference=to=cjCdK==

oecent=rese~rch=indic~te=th~t=consumers=frequentäy=do=not=h~ve=predefined=

preferences= but= inste~d= construct= their= preferences= ~s= needed= to= m~ke=

their= choiceK=qo=construct= these=preferencesI=consumers= use=~= v~riety=of=

choice= ruäesK= lne= b~sic= ruäe= is= to= ev~äu~te= ~ää= the= br~nds= in= the=

consider~tion= set= on= the= ~ctu~ä= ~ttribute= v~äue= ~nd= the= br~nd= with= the=

highest= v~äue= is= chosenK= ff= ~= consumer= oper~tes= in= this= f~shion= to= m~ke=

br~nd= choice= decisionsI= then= heLshe= is= s~id= to= be= in=~ttribute=v~äue=b~se=

mode=E^s_jFK==

then= it= comes= to= routine= purch~sesI= consumers= h~rdäy= invest= time= ~nd=

efforts= to= choose= their= br~ndsK=merh~ps=consumers= might= h~ve=ev~äu~ted=

every=br~nd=in= the=consider~tion=set=e~räier=~nd=h~ve= f~ir=experience=with=

the=br~ndX=they=then=h~rdäy=t~ke=~ny=efforts=to=reJev~äu~te=them=for=the=next=

purch~seK= Consumers= m~ke= use= of= cert~in= ruäes= to= convert= these= ~ctu~ä=

~ttribute= v~äues= to= more= psychoäogic~ääy= me~ningfuäI= better= –= defined=

15

ordered= v~äuesK= Choices= ~re= then= b~sed= on= these= ordered= v~äuesK=

Consumers= ~re= then= s~id= to= oper~te= in= ~= psychoäogic~ä= mode= known= ~s=

ordered=v~äue=b~se=mode=Els_jFK==

qhe= study= expäores= the= possibiäity= of= possibiäity= of= deveäoping= ~= br~nd=

choice=modeä= th~t=c~n=tr~ck=st~tistic~ääy=the=existence=of= the=psychoäogic~ä=

modes=–=^s_j=or=ls_jK=

qhe=äist=of=objectives=is=mentioned=beäowK=

NK= qo= ex~mine= the= possibiäity= of= consumers= using= heuristics= in= br~nd=

choice=in=the=cjCd=c~tegoryK=

OK= qo= ex~mine= in= which= psychoäogic~ä= mode= consumers= oper~te= –=

~ttribute= v~äue= b~se= mode= E^s_jF= or= ordered= v~äue= b~se= mode=

Els_jF=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK==

PK= qo= ex~mine= the= dur~tion= for= which= ~= consumer= oper~tes= in= ~=

p~rticuä~r=psychoäogic~ä=modeK=

QK= qo=expäore= the=possibiäity=of= deveäoping=~= st~tistic~ä=modeä= th~t= c~n=

eä~bor~te=the=äogic=of=existence=of=the=psychoäogic~ä=modesK=

RK= qo= expäore= the= possibiäity= of= whether= the= st~tistic~ä= modeä= c~n=

c~äcuä~te= future= choice= prob~biäities= in= e~ch= of= the= psychoäogic~ä=

modes=–=^s_j=or=ls_j=or=bothK=

SK= qo=~dopt=~=st~tistic~ä=~ppro~ch=to=postuä~te=th~t=the=observed=choice=

beh~vior=is=the=outcome=of=~=prob~biäistic=d~t~=gener~ting=processK==

16

fmportance of ptudy

qhe= m~rketing= pä~n= of= ~ny= firm= st~rts= with= consumers= ~t= its= ~pexK= qhe=

psychoäogy= of= consumer= h~s= ~= direct= imp~ct= on= the= br~nd= choiceK=

rnderst~nding= consumer= psychoäogy= is= ~s= good= ~s= winning= h~äf= of= the=

competitionK=^n= insight= into=consumer’s=buying=beh~vior= is=expected= from=

the=studyK==

qhis=modeä=is=buiät=on=simpäicity=of=m~croeconomic=theoryI=~nd=incorpor~tes=

the= key= psychoäogic~ä= f~ctors= which= ende~vor= to= expä~in= ~nd= qu~ntify=

seemingäy=irr~tion~ä=or=inconsistent=beh~vior=of=consumersK=

Benefits of ptudy

qhe=study=shouäd=identify=the=v~rious=psychoäogic~ä=modes=consumers=c~n=

be=inI=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=qhe=psychoäogic~ä=modes=

identified= ~re= b~sed= on= the= use= of= cert~in= heuristics= by= consumersK= = ^=

m~rketer=c~n=underst~nd=how=consumers=t~ke=decisions=by=rem~ining=in=~=

p~rticuä~r= psychoäogic~ä= modeK= ^ccommod~ting= heuristics= ~nd= bi~ses= in=

comput~tion= of= future= prob~biäities= of= br~nd= choice= c~n= heäp= m~rketer= to=

~chieve=better=~ccur~cyK=j~rketers=c~n=design=better=m~rketing=pä~ns=~nd=

str~tegies=b~sed=on=the=knowäedge=of=heuristicsK==

The eypotheses

eMNW=Consumers=do=not=m~ke=use=of=fuää=inform~tion=they=receive=on=br~nds=

to= ev~äu~te= themK= eeuristics= ~re= uncommon= phenomenon= in= consumers=

br~nd=choice=processK=

17

nualitative

eNNW= Consumers= m~ke= use= of= fuää= inform~tion= they= receive= on= br~nds= to=

ev~äu~te= themK=eeuristics= ~re= common= phenomenon= in= consumers=br~nd=

choice=processK=

eMOW=eeuristics=do=not=m~ke=~ny=imp~ct=on=br~nd=choice==

eNOW=eeuristics=m~ke=imp~ct=on=br~nd=choice==

eMPW=Consumers=~re=not= in=~=psychoäogic~ä= st~te=of=^ttributes=s~äue=_~se=

jodeI=th~t=isI=they=do=not=ev~äu~te=the=~ttributes=of=the=br~nds=which=~re=in=

their=consider~tion=set=whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=choiceK==

eNPW= Consumers= ~re= in= the= psychoäogic~ä= st~te= of= ^ttributes= s~äue= _~se=

jodeI=th~t=isI=they=ev~äu~te=the=~ttributes=of=the=br~nds=which=~re=in=their=

consider~tion=set=whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=choiceK=

eMQW= Consumers= ~re= not= in= psychoäogic~ä= st~te= of= lrdered= s~äue= _~se=

jodeI= th~t= isI= they= do= not= put= the= br~nds= in= their= consider~tion= set= in= ~=

p~rticuä~r=order=of=their=preferences=whiäe=m~king=~=choiceK=

eNQW=Consumers=~re= in=psychoäogic~ä= st~te=of=lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jodeI=

th~t=isI=they=put=the=br~nds=in=their=consider~tion=set=in=~=p~rticuä~r=order=of=

their=preferences=~nd=then=m~ke=~=br~nd=choice=

eMRW=Consumers=~re=in=singäe=st~te=of=modeI=th~t=isI=either=in=^ttribute=s~äue=

_~se=jode=or=in=lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jode=whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=choiceK=

18

eNRW=Consumers=~re= in=hybrid=st~te=of=modeI= th~t= isI= in=both= the=st~tes=of=

modes=–= ^ttribute=s~äue= _~se=jode=or=lrdered=s~äue= _~se=jode=whiäe=

m~king=~=br~nd=choiceK=

nuantitative

eMSW= cuture= prob~biäities= of= br~nd= choice= c~n= be= c~äcuä~ted= for= e~ch=

psychoäogic~ä=mode=

eNSW= cuture= prob~biäities= of= br~nd= choice= c~nnot= be= c~äcuä~ted= for= e~ch=

psychoäogic~ä=mode=

oesearch jethodology

rnderstanding the fssue

qhis= study= is= to= know= how= consumers= use= heuristics= in= their= decision=

process=of=br~nd=choiceK=j~ny=times=heuristics=äe~d=to=bi~s=in=the=decision=

m~king=process=of=br~nd=choice=th~t=m~y=äe~d=m~rketers=~str~yK=oese~rch=

tiää= this=d~te= indic~tes= th~t= consumersI=whiäe=m~king= ~= decision= on=br~ndI=

ev~äu~te=~ää= the=inform~tion=they=receive=on=the=~ttributes=of=~ää= the=br~nds=

they=h~ve=in=their=consider~tion=setK=_ut=beh~vior~ä=rese~rch=indic~tes=th~t=

~ää=the=inform~tion=is=not=used=in=the=ev~äu~tion=of=the=br~ndsK=curther=it=w~s=

proved= consumers= convert= these= ~ctu~ä= ~ttributes= v~äue= to= more=

psychoäogic~ääy= me~ningfuäI= better= defined= ordered= v~äuesK= qh~t= is=

consumers= put= the= br~nds= in= order= of= their= preference= with= reference= to=

some=~ttribute=sc~äeK=qhe=two=b~sic=modes=consumers=~re=s~id=to=oper~te=

whiäe= m~king= ~= br~nd= choice= ~re= termed= ~s= ^ttribute= s~äue= _~se= jode=

19

E^s_jF=~nd=lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jode=Els_jFK=qhe=issues=for=study=~re=

in= which= psychoäogic~ä= mode= consumers= st~y= whiäe= t~king= ~= decision= on=

br~nd= choiceK= eow= äong= the= order= of= the= br~nds= rem~in= unch~nged= ~nd=

whyI=if=the=consumer=is=oper~ting=in=the=ordered=v~äue=mode?=^re=heuristics=

responsibäe=to=keep=the=order=unch~nged=for=äong?==

^nother= import~nt= issue= is= to= find= whether= choice= prob~biäities= c~n= be=

c~äcuä~ted=for=e~ch=psychoäogic~ä=mode=~fter=~ccommod~ting=heuristics=in=

the=choice=processK=

aata Collection

mrim~ry= d~t~= on= the= purch~se= of= three= detergent= br~nds= were= coääected=

from=the=st~te=of= j~h~r~shtr~=POR=househoäds=p~rticip~ted= in= the=surveyK=

b~ch= househoäd= w~s= monitored= for= three= months= for= the= purch~se= of=

detergent=powder=of=the=three=br~ndsK=qhe=prim~ry=d~t~=were=used=for=the=

execution=of=the=br~nd=choice=modeä=which=is=deveäoped=in=this=studyK=

pecond~ry= d~t~= were= rese~rch= p~persI= m~g~zines= ~nd= reference= booksK=

qhe=foääowing=web=sites=were=used=for=the=second~ry=d~t~=coääection=

NK= ppok=Epoci~ä=pciences=oese~rch=ketworkF==

OK= teb=site=of=e~rv~rd’s=rniversity=

PK= teb=site=of=^meric~n=j~rketing=^ssoci~tion=

QK= = b_pCl=

qhe=foääowing=journ~äs=were=referred=for=the=study=

20

NK= qhe=gourn~ä=of=j~rketing=oese~rch=

OK= qhe=gourn~ä=of=Consumer=_eh~vior=

PK= e~rv~rd=_usiness=oeview=

QK= oese~rch= p~pers= compiäed= by= C~mbridge= rniversity= mress=

“gudgment=rnder=rncert~inty=–=eeuristics=~nd=_i~ses=

fnstrument of aata Collection

a~t~=on=purch~ses=of=detergent=br~nds=by=POR=househoäds=were=coääected=

with= the= heäp= of= ~= questionn~ireK= b~ch= househoäd= w~s= monitored= for=

detergent= purch~ses= for= three= months= which= m~kes= PxPOR= Z= VTR=

observ~tionsK= qhe= questionn~ire= comprised= of= questions= m~inäy= to= coääect=

d~t~= on= the= purch~se= of= the= br~nds= ~nd= the= price= ~t= which= they= were=

purch~sedK=ft=~äso=h~d=provisions=to=find=whether=consumers=were=exposed=

to= ~dvertisements= which= sign~äed= the= receipt= of= ~ttributes= Efe~turesF=

inform~tion=~nd=whether=the=br~nds=were=purch~sed=under=~ny=promotion=

done=either=by=the=ret~iä=outäet=or=the=comp~ny=owning=the=br~ndK=

qhe= br~nd= choice= modeä= deveäoped= is= b~sed= on= ~= utiäity= function= using=

juätinomi~ä= iogistic= oegressionK= qhree= br~nds= of= detergents= EcjCdF=

considered= for= study= ~re= purfI= ^rieä= ~nd= oinK= qhe= utiäity= function= in= the=

modeä=used=five=~ttributes=~=dummy=term=for=br~ndO=~nd=br~ndP=e~chI=price=

term= giving= the= price= in= rupeesI= ~= fe~ture= term= th~t= w~s= “N≤= when= the=

respondents=were=exposed= to=~dvertisements=of= the=br~nds=otherwise= “M≤=

21

w~s=~ssignedK=qhe=promotion=term=w~s=given=the=v~äue=“N≤=when=the=br~nd=

w~s=especi~ääy=promoted=~nd=“M’=when=the=br~nd=w~s=notK=

The pampling mlan

a~t~= were= coääected= from= POR= househoäds= who= were= monitored= for= their=

detergent=purch~ses=for=three=monthsK==

rniverse of ptudy

qhe=universe=of=study=w~s=the=househoäds=th~t=use=detergent=powders=~nd=

those=who=h~ve=purch~sed=the=three=br~nds=in=the=ä~st=three=monthsK==

pampling crame

qhe=s~mpäing=fr~me=consists=of=the=househoäds=who=purch~sed=N=kg=p~ck=

of=~ny=of=the=three=br~nds=of=detergents=in=the=ä~st=three=monthsK=

marameters for Choosing the pample

qhe=respondents=were=middäe=income=äiter~tes=who=h~ve=purch~sed=~ny=of=

the=three=br~nds=in=previous=three=months=from=the=d~te=of=the=visit=

pample pize

qhe=s~mpäe=size=c~äcuä~ted=is=three=hundred=~nd=twenty=five=househoädsK=

p~mpäe=size=is=determined=~s=foääows=

= = = p=Z=xzO=EpEN=–=pFFz=L=eO=

cor=VRB=äeveä=of=signific~nce=z=Z=NKVS=

mroportion=of=popuä~tion=to=be=s~mpäed=Z=PMB=Z=MKP=

22

e=Z=the=proportion=of=error=Z=RB=Z=MKMR=

= = = p=Z=xNKVSO=EMKPEN=–=MKPFFz=L=EMKMRFO=

= ===

= = = ===Z=POOKSV=rounded=off=to=POR=

The pample

prK no kame of mlace koK of households

participated

N= _eed= OR=

O= m~rbh~ni= OR=

P= hoäph~pur= OR=

Q= phoä~pur= OR=

R= ^ur~ng~b~d= OR=

S= ^mr~v~ti= OR=

T= mune= OR=

U= jumb~i= TR=

V= k~gpur= OR=

NM= qh~ne= OR=

NN= i~tur= OR=

= Total POR

Table N pampling plan for data collection

23

ptatistical Tools

qhe= b~sis= for= deveäoping= the= st~tistic~ä= br~nd= choice= modeä= is= the= utiäity=

function=b~sed=on=juätinomi~ä=iogistic=oegressionK=qhe=foääowing=st~tistic~ä=

functions= ~re= used= in= the= deveäopment= of= the= four= moduäes= of= the= br~nd=

choice=modeäK==

juätiv~ri~te=korm~ä=aistribution=

C~tegoric~ä=aistribution=

tish~rt=aistribution=

airichäet=aitribution=

pignum=function==

poftware

qhe= four= moduäes= of= the= br~nd= choice= modeä= were= converted= into= ~=

softw~re= code= ~nd= executed= in= tin_rdpK= tin_rdp= is= softw~re= which=

st~nds=for=tindow’s=sersion=for=_~yesi~n=fnference=rsing=dibbs=p~mpäingK==

The Brand Choice jodel

aefinition of ptatistical jodel

lne= of= the= import~nt= steps= in= st~tistic~ä= science= is= the= construction= of=

prob~biäistic= modeä= th~t= represent= or= sufficientäy= ~pproxim~teI= the= true=

gener~ting=mech~nism=of=~=phenomenon=under=studyK=qhe=construction=of=

24

such=modeä=is=b~sed=on=prob~biäistic=~nd=äogic~ä=~rguments=concerning=the=

n~ture=~nd=function=of=~=given=phenomenonK==

iet=us=~ssume=th~t=~=r~ndom=v~ri~bäe=vI=c~ääed=the=responseI=which=foääows=

~=prob~biäistic=ruäe=with=prob~biäity=function=fEy|θFI=where=θ=is=the=p~r~meter=

vectorK= Consider= ~n= independentI= identic~ääy= distributed= EiKiKdF= s~mpäe= y= Z=

xyNI=yOI=…=ynzq=of=size=n=of=this=v~ri~bäeX=where=^q=denotes=the=tr~nspose=of=

~=vector=or=m~trix=^K=the=joint=distribution== = = = =

= = = =

fEy|θF=Z=Π=fEyi|θF=

=

is=c~ääed=the=äikeäihood=of=the=modeä=~nd=cont~ins=the=~v~iä~bäe=inform~tion=

provided=by=the=observed=s~mpäeK==

rsu~ääy= modeäs= ~re= constructed= in= order= to= ~ssess= or= interpret= c~us~ä=

reä~tionships=between= the=response=v~ri~bäe=v=~nd=v~rious=ch~r~cteristics=

expressed=~s=v~ri~bäes=ujI= j=Є=sI= c~ääed= the=cov~ri~tes=or= the=expä~n~tory=

v~ri~bäesX=j=indic~tes=~=cov~ri~te=or=~=modeä=term=~nd=s=indic~tes=the=set=of=

~ää=the=terms=under=consider~tionK=fn=such=c~sesI=the=expä~n~tory=v~ri~bäes=

~re=äinked=with=the=response=v~ri~bäes=vi~=~=deterministic=function=~nd=p~rt=

of= the= origin~ä= p~r~meter= vector= is= substituted= by= ~n= ~ätern~tive= set= of=

p~r~meters= denoted= by= β= th~t= usu~ääy= enc~psuä~tes= the= effect= of= e~ch=

cov~ri~te= on= the= response= v~ri~bäeK= cor= ex~mpäe= in= ~= norm~ä= regression=

modeä=with=y=~=kEXβ,σOf=F=the=p~r~meter=vector=is=given=by=θq=Z=xβqI=σOz==

i=1

n

25

The cour jodules of Brand Choice jodel

qhe=modeä=deveäoped=in=this=study=~ccommod~tes=the=use=of=heuristics=by=

the= consumers= in= their= decisions= on= br~nd= choiceK= cour= psychoäogic~ä=

st~tes=~re= identified= in=this=studyK=^=consumer= is=expected=to=be=in=one=of=

the=psychoäogic~ä=st~te=whiäe=t~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=qhe=modeä=

incorpor~tes=st~tistic~ä= expression= for=e~ch=psychoäogic~ä= st~teK=qhe=b~sis=

of=~n~äysis= is=muätinomi~ä= äogistic= regressionI=p~r~meters=of= e~ch= moduäe=

~re= c~äcuä~ted= which= proves= the= äogic= of= the= psychoäogic~ä= mode=

st~tistic~ääyK==

qhe=four=psychoäogic~ä=modes=identified=~re==

NK= ^ttribute=s~äue=_~se=jode=E^s_jF=

OK= lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jode=Els_jF=

PK= au~ä=jode=EeybridF=–=qime=fnv~ri~nt==

QK= au~ä=jode=EeybridF=–=qime=s~ri~nt=

Attribute salue Base jode

oecent=rese~rch=indic~te=th~t=consumers=frequentäy=do=not=h~ve=predefined=

preferences= but= inste~d= construct= their= preferences= ~s= needed= to= m~ke=

their= choiceK=qo=construct= these=preferencesI=consumers= use=~= v~riety=of=

choice= ruäesK= lne= b~sic= ruäe= is= to= ev~äu~te= ~ää= the= br~nds= in= the=

consider~tion= set= on= the= ~ctu~ä= ~ttribute= v~äue= ~nd= the= br~nd= with= the=

highest= v~äue= is= chosenK= qhe= consumer= is= s~id= to= oper~te= in= the=

psychoäogic~ä= mode= c~ääed= the= ~ttribute= v~äue= b~se= mode= E^s_jFK= qhe=

26

moduäe= deveäoped= for= this= psychoäogic~ä= mode= is= pureäy= b~sed= on= the=

muätinomi~ä= äogistic= regressionK= ouäes= used= by= the= consumers= use= ~ctu~ä=

~ttribute= v~äues= ~s= inputsK= _ut= such= ruäes= require= the= consumer= to= use=

weighted=~dditive=ruäe=th~t=considers=the=~ctu~ä=v~äues=of=~ää=the=~ätern~tives=

on=~ää=the=reäev~nt=~ttributesK==

rsing=such=weighted=~dditive= ruäe=~ägorithm= to=ev~äu~te= routine=br~nds=of=

cjCd= is= too=big=~= t~sk= for=hum~n=memory=even= for=simpäe=products=~nd=

even= when= fuää= inform~tion= is= ~v~iä~bäeK= qhis= gives= w~y= to= find= how= ~=

consumerI=thenI=m~kes=~=br~nd=choiceK=qhe=~nswer=to=this=ä~ys=in=the=next=

psychoäogic~ä= mode= the= ordered= v~äue= b~se= mode= which= is= described=

beäowK=

lrdered salue Base jode

then= it= comes= to= routine= purch~sesI= consumers= h~rdäy= invest= time= ~nd=

efforts= to= choose= their= br~ndsK=merh~ps=consumers= might= h~ve=ev~äu~ted=

every= br~nd= in= the= consider~tion= set= e~räierX= they= then= h~rdäy= t~ke= ~ny=

efforts=to=reJev~äu~te=them=for=the=next=purch~seK=Consumers=m~ke=use=of=

cert~in= ruäes= to= convert= these= ~ctu~ä= ~ttribute= v~äues= to= more=

psychoäogic~ääy= me~ningfuäI= better= –= defined=ordered= v~äuesK= Choices= ~re=

then=b~sed=on=these=ordered=v~äuesK=Consumers=~re=then=s~id=to=oper~te=

in=~=psychoäogic~ä=mode=known=~s=ordered=v~äue=b~se=mode=Els_jFK=

qhe= order=of= preference=of= the=br~nds=sh~ää= rem~in= the=s~me=~s= äong= ~s=

products’= reä~tive= positions= ~äong= ~ttributes= ~re= preservedK= qo= st~tistic~ä=

expression= for= the=ls_j=mode=uses= the=expression=of=^s_j=but=with=~=

27

differenceK=pignum=function= is=used=for=sign~äing=~=ch~nge=in= the=order=of=

the= br~ndK= fn= this= modeä= ~ny= ch~nge= th~t= preserves= the= ordering= of=

products’=v~äues=~äong=the=~ttribute=äe~ves=signum=function=unch~ngedK=

qhe= ls_j= st~te= of= psychoäogy= is= dependent= on= the= ^s_jK= Consumers=

c~n=switch=between=modes=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=qh~t=

is= their= psychoäogy= c~n= be= in= both= the= st~te= of= modes= ~nd= they= keep=

switching=from=one=mode=to=~nother=depending=upon=the=ch~nges=th~t=t~ke=

pä~ce= in= the= ~ttribute= v~äuesK= qhe= mode= th~t= ~ccommod~tes= both= ^s_j=

~nd=ls_j=is=termed=~s=du~ä=modeK=au~ä=mode=c~n=be=either=time=v~ri~nt=

or=time=inv~ri~ntK=_oth=these=~re=described=beäowK=

aual jode – Time fnvariant

ff=~=consumer=oper~tes=in=^s_j=on=one=occ~sionI=the=consumer=oper~tes=

in=^s_j=on=~ää=the=occ~sionsK==

aual jode – Time sariant

qhe=consumer=switches=from=one=mode=to=~nother=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=

on=br~nd=choice=depending=upon=the=product=c~tegoryK==

qhe= four= moduäes= of= the= st~tistic~ä= modeä= were= converted= into= softw~re=

codes= ~nd= executed= in= tin_rdp= to= c~äcuä~te= the= p~r~meters= of= e~ch=

moduäeK= tin_rdp= uses= _~yesi~n= inference= ~nd= j~rkov= Ch~in= jonte=

C~räo= method= EjCjCF= for= the= c~äcuä~tion= of= p~r~meters= of= the= moduäesK= =

qo=find=the=~ccur~cy=of=p~r~metersI=jCjC=w~s=run=~nd=the=convergence=

of=d~t~=w~s=~ssessedK=qhe=first=NMIMMM=dr~ws=were=disc~rded=~nd=the=next=

NMIMMM=dr~ws=were=used=to=~ssess=convergence=~nd=to=m~ke=inferenceK==

28

cindings

NK eypothesis eMS C eNS

qhe= four= moduäes= n~meäy= ^s_jI= ls_jI= au~ä= jodeä= –= qime=

fnv~ri~nt= ~nd= au~ä= jode= –= qime= s~ri~nt= were= estim~ted= using=

tin_rdp= progr~mming= in= the= detergent= c~tegory= of= N= kg=

p~ck~gingK= m~neä= d~t~= w~s= coääected= through= ~= survey= from= POR=

househoäds=who=coääectiveäy=m~de=VTR=purch~ses=in=~=sp~n=of=three=

monthsK=qhe= three=br~nds=considered=for=d~t~=coääection=were=purfI=

^rieä=C=oinK=qhe=utiäity=function=in=the=modeä=used=five=~ttributes=–=~=

dummy=term=for=br~ndO=~nd=br~ndP=e~chI=price=term=giving=the=price=

in=rupeesI=~=“fe~ture’=term=th~t=w~s=“N≤=when=the=respondents=were=

exposed= to= the= ~dvertisementI= otherwise= ~= “M≤= w~s= ~ssignedI= the=

promotion= term= t~king= v~äues= “N≤= or= “M≤= when= the= product= w~s=

speci~ääy= promotedLnot= promotedK= qhe= tin_rdp= code= w~s=

executed=by= the= softw~re=~nd= the=bet~=coefficients= Ep~r~metersF=of=

the= moduäes= were= c~äcuä~tedK= qhe= c~äcuä~tion= of= the= p~r~meters=

proves= th~t= consumer= c~n= be= in= one= of= the= four= st~tes= ^s_jI=

ls_jI=au~ä=jode=–=qime=fnv~ri~nt=or=au~ä=jode=qime=s~ri~ntK=cor=

moduäes= with= onäy= ^s_j= ~nd= ls_jI= five= p~r~meters= for= μ= ~re=

estim~ted= for= e~ch= ~nd= for= hybrid= modeäsI= both= time= inv~ri~nt= ~nd=

time=v~ri~ntI=ten=p~r~meters=~re=estim~ted=for=e~chK=jCjC=w~s=run=

in=tin_rdp=~nd=the=convergence=of=the=d~t~=w~s=~ssessedK==

29

ioading fnitial salues=

fniti~ä= v~äues=~re=provided= to= the=progr~m=for= the=execution=of= the=jCjC=

~ägorithmK=cor=this=choice=modeäI=initi~ä=v~äues=~re=gener~ted=by=tin_rdpK=

Burn-in mrocess

qhis=process=is= initi~ted=in=order=to=eäimin~te=the=first=_=iter~tions=from=the=

s~mpäe= to=~void= the= infäuence=of= the= initi~ä= v~äuesK=qhe= first=NMIMMM=dr~ws=

~re= disc~rded= to= ~void= this= infäuence= ~nd= the= next= NMIMMM= dr~ws= ~re=

considered=for=further=~n~äysisK==

Convergence of aata

qhis=refers=to=situ~tion=where=the=jCjC=~ägorithm=re~ches=its=equiäibrium=

~nd= gener~tes= v~äues= from= the= desired= t~rget= distributionK= qhe= notion= of=

equiäibrium=distribution=is=reä~ted=to=j~rkov=Ch~in=used=to=construct=jCjCK=

ff= the=~ägorithm=re~ches=the=equiäibrium=st~geI=then=the=gener~ted=s~mpäe=

comes= from= the= t~rget= distribution= ~nd= the= d~t~= ~re= s~id= to= converge=

s~tisf~ctoriäyK= eence= monitoring= the= convergence= of= the= ~ägorithm= is=

essenti~ä= for= producing= resuäts= from= the= posterior= distribution= of= interestK=

qr~ce= päot= is= one= w~y= of= monitoring= the= convergence= which= ~re= päots= of=

iter~tion= versus= the= gener~ted= v~äuesK= ff= ~ää= the= v~äues= ~re= within= ~= zone=

without= strong= periodicities= ~nd= tendenciesI= then= one= c~n= ~ssume=

s~tisf~ctory=convergenceK==

qr~ce= päots= of= the= p~r~meters= of= ~ää= the= four= moduäes= dispä~yed= beäow=

reve~ä= th~t= convergence= for= e~ch= is= s~tisf~ctory= ~nd= the= resuäts= c~n= be=

~cceptedK==

30

qhe=m~r~meters=of=the=jodeä=

AsBj jodule

marameters of the jodule

_r~ndO= = Z=MKMPMMP=

_r~ndP= = Z=MKNVPVP=

mrice = = = Z=JMKMPSQN=

ce~ture= = = Z=MKMMQQV=

mromotion== Z=MKNTMOM=

^fter= running= jCjC= ~nd= conducting= burnJin= processI= the= tr~ce= päots=

indic~te=th~t=the=convergence=of=the=d~t~=is=s~tisf~ctory=~nd=~ccept~bäeK=

lsBj jodule

The parameters of the lsBj module

_r~ndO= = Z=JMKMPT=

_r~ndP= = Z=MKMTV=

mrice = = = Z=JMKMVM=

ce~ture= = = Z=JMKNNN=

mromotion== Z=JMKMRN=

^fter= running= jCjC= ~nd= conducting= burnJin= processI= the= tr~ce= päots=

indic~te=th~t=the=convergence=of=the=d~t~=is=s~tisf~ctory=~nd=~ccept~bäeK=

31

aual jode – Time fnvariant jodule

Attribute Coefficients

_r~ndO= = Z=JMKMNTMN=

_r~ndP= = Z==MKMNOPS=

mrice === = Z=JMKPTNU=

ce~ture== = Z=JMKMVMPO=

mromotion= = = Z==MKMPQNR=

lrdered Coefficients

_r~ndO= = =Z==MKMQPV=

_r~ndP= = Z=JMKRMUO=

mrice === = Z==NKOO=

ce~ture== = Z=JMKPMSO=

mromotion= = = Z=JMKMTQV=

^fter= running= jCjC= ~nd= conducting= burnJin= processI= the= tr~ce= päots=

indic~te=th~t=the=convergence=of=the=d~t~=is=s~tisf~ctory=~nd=~ccept~bäeK=

32

aual jode – Time sariant jodule

Attribute Coefficients

_r~ndO= = Z==MKONVS=

_r~ndP= = Z==MKPTMN=

mrice === = Z==MKNPOV=

ce~ture== = Z=JMKNNQQ=

mromotion= = = Z=JMKRNQQ=

lrdered Coefficients

_r~ndO= = Z==MKNMUO=

_r~ndP= = Z==MKQURV=

mrice === = Z=JMKPVTP=

ce~ture== = Z==MKOSUP=

mromotion= = = Z=JMKNQQN=

OK= qhe=study=tries=to=find=in=which=mode=–=^s_j=or=ls_jI=consumers=

~re=in=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=^n~äysis=of=au~ä=

jode=modeä=reve~äs=th~t=RRKOUB=of=the=househoäds=m~de=their=

br~nd=choice=by=rem~ining=in=ls_j=mode=Erefer=t~bäe=^WPWP=in=

~nnexureF=

=

=

33

PK eypothesis eMN C eNN

qhe= study= reve~äs= th~t= consumers= do= not= m~ke= use= of= fuää=

inform~tion= they= receive= on= every= br~nd= they= h~ve= in= their=

consider~tion=setK=fnste~d=they=m~ke=use=of=short=cuts=to=~rrive=~t=~=

decisionK=

QK eypothesis eMO C eNO

aue= to= the=constr~ints= imposed=by=cognitive=resourcesI=consumers=

~dopt= heuristics= to= ~rrive= ~t= ~= decision= on= br~nd= choiceK= rse= of=

heuristics=m~y= induce=~=bi~s= in= the=decision=of= the= consumerK= qhe=

kind= of= heuristics= used= by= consumer= depends= up= on= hisLher=

demogr~phic= ~nd= psychogr~phic= ch~r~cteristicsK= qhe= finding= is=

heuristics=does=h~ve=imp~ct=on=the=decisions=of=consumersK=

RK eypothesis eMP C eNPI eMQ C eNQ

Consumers= receive= d~t~= on= the= br~nds= th~t= ~re= present= in= their=

consider~tion= set= through= experienceI= ~dvertisements= ~nd= t~äk=

f~ctorK=qhe=d~t~=~re=then=stored=in=the=äong=term=memoryK=fn=order=to=

use=this=d~t~=stored=in=the=äong=term=memoryI=it=shouäd=be=retrieved=

~nd=brought= into= the=short= term=memory=where= it= is=processed=~nd=

converted=into=inform~tionK=_ut=the=short=term=memory=c~n=store=onäy=

T=H=or=–=O=chunks=of=d~t~=which=puts=~=restriction=on=the=inform~tion=

processing=~nd=us~geK=Consumers=do=ev~äu~te=the=~ttributes=of=the=

br~ndsI=but= inste~d=of=storing=huge=~mount=of= inform~tion=on=e~ch=

~ttribute= of= e~ch= br~ndI= they= put= the= br~nds= in= the= order= of= their=

34

preference=~äong=with= the= ~ttributes=sc~äeK= Consumers= refer= to= this=

order=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=

SK eypothesis eMR C eNR

Consumers= ~re= found= to= be= in= du~ä= st~te= of= mode= whiäe= m~king= ~=

br~nd= choiceK= qh~t= isI= consumers= oper~te= in= both= the= modes= –=

^s_j=~nd=lsj_=~t= the=s~me=point= in= time=whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=

choiceK=qhe=hybrid= or= the= du~ä= mode= is=either= time= inv~ri~nt=which=

me~ns= if= ~= consumer= is= in= ~= p~rticuä~r= st~te= of= mode= E^s_j= or=

ls_jF=he=continues=to=rem~in=in=th~t=mode=for=~=äong=period=of=time=

or= time= v~ri~nt= which= me~ns= the= consumer= switches= between= the=

modes= occ~sion~ääyK= qhe= existence= of= the= du~ä= mode= is= ~äso=

st~tistic~ääy=tr~ct~bäe=through=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeäK=

iimitations of ptudy

NK=qhe=study=considers=onäy= the=br~nd=choice=decision=~nd=ignores=

the= other= ~spects= of= buying= beh~viorK= ft= is= not= cäe~r= how= ordered=

v~äue=processing=~ffects= these=other=decisionsK=curther= rese~rch= is=

necess~ry=to=investig~te=thisK=

OK=qhe=modeä=~ääows=for=onäy=m~in=effects=of=price=~nd=other=predictor=

termsK=qhere=~re=other= v~ri~bäes= Ewhich= ~re= ignored= in= this= studyFI=

such=~s= purch~se= incidenceI= qu~ntity= decisions=etc= in= the= situ~tion=

th~t=m~y=~ffect=br~nd=choiceK=

PK= jore= rese~rch= is= necess~ry= to= specify= the= f~ctors= th~t= c~use=

consumers= to= b~se= their= choice= on= ~ttribute= versus= ordered= v~äue=

inform~tionK= j~rketing= mix= f~ctors= ~nd= consumer= specific= f~ctors=

35

wouäd= be= expected= to= infäuence= consumers’= use= of= ~ttribute=

inform~tionK=cor=ex~mpäeI=m~rketing=communic~tions=th~t=fix~tes=on=

specific=~ttribute=v~äues=r~ther= th~n=~ttribute= import~nce=might= äe~d=

consumers=to=focus=on=products’=~ctu~ä=r~ther=th~n=ordered=v~äuesK=

pignific~nt= price= v~ri~tions= might= äe~d= consumers= to= focus= on=

product’s=~ttribute=v~äuesK==

cuture pcope for oesearch

NK= qhis= study= focuses= on= the= äogic~ä= execution=of= the= four= moduäes= of=

the=br~nd=choice=modeä=~nd=c~äcuä~tes=the=bet~=coefficients=of=~ää=the=

moduäesK= qhese= bet~= coefficients= c~n= be= used= to= c~äcuä~te= the=

prob~biäity=of=the=next=purch~se=of=the=househoädK=ft=m~y=be=possibäe=

to= forec~st=m~rket= sh~re=of=~=p~rticuä~r=br~nd= Eof= the= three=br~nds=

considered=in=the=exerciseF=by=differing=the=price=äeveäsK=

OK= ft=is=possibäe=to=c~äcuä~te=the=aevi~nceL^k~ikeL_~yesi~n=fnform~tion=

Criterion=to=find=which=moduäe=is=h~ving=the=best=fitK==

PK = ft =m~y =be =possibäe =to =c~äcuä~te =which =modeI =^s_j =or =ls_jI =is =

more=prev~äent=in=consumer=psychoäogyK=qh~t=isI=it=m~y=be=possibäe=

to=c~äcuä~te=prev~äence=index=by=tin_rdp=softw~reK==

QK= curther= rese~rch= is= required= to= underst~nd= the= effects= of= other=

v~ri~bäes=such=~s=purch~se= incidenceI=qu~ntity=decision=etc=on= the=

br~nd=choice=modeä=

=

36

Chapter N

fntroduction

NWN=fntroduction=

NWO=eeuristics=–=th~t=it=is?=

NWP=_r~nd=Choice=–=aefinition=

NWQ=c~ctors=fnfäuencing=the=rse=of=eeuristics=

NWR=qhe=pt~tistic~ä=jodeä=for=_r~nd=Choice=

NWS=jodeä=bxecution=

37

Chapter N

fntroduction =

NWN The lverview

jicroeconomic= theory= concentr~tes= on= the= choice= process= by=

postuä~ting= th~t= consumer= is= ~n= optimizing= bä~ck= boxK= qhus= the=

underäying= decision= protocoä= ~ssumed= is= th~t= consumer= chooses= ~n=

~ätern~tive=which=m~ximizes=hisLher=utiäity=or=weääJbeingK=qhe=~ttributes=

of= different= ~ätern~tivesI= individu~ä= ch~r~cteristicsI= p~st= experienceI=

~mbient= inform~tion=~nd=situ~tion~ä=constr~ints=~re=inputs= to=the=bä~ck=

boxI=whiäe=the=observed=choice=is=the=outputK=qhe=oper~tion~äiz~tion=of=

the= m~croeconomic= choice= theory= reäies= he~viäy= on= the= individu~ä’s=

preferences= tow~rds= ~ätern~tives= ~s= eäicited= in= the= ~ctu~ä= m~rket=

environmentI= usu~ääy= referred= to= ~s= reve~äed= preferencesK= curther= it=

~ssumes= th~t= consumers= h~ve= perfect= inform~tion= ~bout= ~v~iä~bäe=

~ätern~tives=~nd=their=~ttributesK=_ut= in=re~äityI=~=consumer=h~s= äimited=

prior= inform~tion= ~bout= consumption= opportunities= ~nd= inform~tion=

processing= c~p~biäitiesK= qhe= consumer’s= preferences= to= different=

~ätern~tives= m~y= cont~in= r~ndom= components= m~inäy= due= to= the=

in~biäity=of= the= rese~rcher= to=me~sure= ~ää= the= inputs= preciseäyK=po= the=

theory= is= oper~tion~äized= by= äinking= the= r~ndom= preference= to= the=

choice= prob~biäities= through= ~= p~r~meterized= st~tistic~ä= modeäK=

bssenti~ääy=the=modeä=äinks=directäy=the=observed=inputs=to=the=observed=

38

outputI= ~nd= modeä= p~r~meters= ~re= then= estim~ted= through= st~tistic~ä=

proceduresK=

Cognitive=~nd=beh~vior~ä=scientists=focus=on=the=subst~ntive=theoretic~ä=

~spects= which= guide= the= re~ä= woräd= choice= processK= cor= the= ä~st= four=

dec~des= the= beh~vior~ä= scientists= h~ve= been= ~rguing= th~t= the=

m~croeconomic= theory= is= not= ~n= ~ccur~te= description= of= how=

consumers=m~ke=decisionsK=

h~hnem~n= ~nd= pneää= noted= the= v~gueness= of= the= concept= of= utiäity=

theory= ~nd= ~rgued= th~t= ~= distinction= shouäd= be= m~de= between=

experience=utiäity=Es~tisf~ction=from=the=use=of=~n=~ätern~tiveFI=predicted=

utiäity= E~nticip~ted= ~nd= expected= s~tisf~ction= from= the= use= of= ~n=

~ätern~tiveF= ~nd= decision= utiäity= Ethe= weight= ~ctu~ääy= given= to= ~n=

~ätern~tive=when=choosingFK=curtherI=soci~ä=psychoäogists=contend= th~t=

soci~ä= motives= ~nd= pressures= m~y= sometime= be= ~s= import~nt=

determin~nts= of= choice= ~s= consumer’s= egoistic= motivesK= msychoäogist=

~rgues= th~t= ~ssumption= of= the= perfect= inform~tion= underäying=

m~croeconomic= theory= is= r~reäy= justifiedK= curthermore= the= bounded=

r~tion~ä= principäe= of= pimon= ENVRRF= exempäifies= the= f~ct= th~t= the= errors=

consumers= gener~te= in= ~cquiring= ~nd= processing= inform~tion= before=

m~king=choices=~re=system~ticK=

qhe= conceptu~äiz~tion= of= cognitive= psychoäogists= ~nd= beh~vior~ä=

scientists=~re=b~sed=on=the=foääowing=key=fe~turesW=

39

NK= fndividu~äs= h~ve= äimited= inform~tion= ~cquisition= ~nd= processing=

c~p~biäities=which=v~ryK=

OK= mrior= experiences= ~ffect= the= choice= process= ~s= consumers=

gener~teLupd~te= perceptions= ~bout= ~ätern~tives= ~nd= their=

~ttributesK=

PK= fndividu~äs=~dopt=different=heuristics=decision=ruäes=contingent=on=

time=pressureI=inform~tion=~v~iä~biäity=~nd=reäi~biäityK=

QK= qhe= soci~äI= economic= ~nd= poäitic~ä= environment= in= conjunction=

with= consumer’s= ch~r~cteristics= conditionsI= consumer’s=

~ttitudesI= v~äues= ~nd= opinions= ~nd= orient~tion= tow~rds= workI=

äeisureI= consumption= p~tternsI= ~ctivities= pursuedI= which= in= turn=

~ffect=the=choice=processK=

fn= the= e~räy= NVTM’sI= qversky= ~nd= h~hnem~n= described= ~= rese~rch=

orient~tion= which= h~s= domin~ted= the= judgment= ~nd= decision= m~king=

äiter~ture=ever=sinceK=qhey=~rgued=th~t=hum~ns=m~ke=use=of=cognitive=

heuristics= which= reduce= the= compäexity= of= m~king= prob~biäistic=

judgmentsK= fn= gener~ä= these= heuristics= ~re= quite= usefuäI= but= m~ny= ~=

times= they= äe~d= to= severe= ~nd= system~tic= errorsK= qversky= ~nd=

h~hnem~n=deveäoped=numerous=demonstr~tions=in=which=the=subjects’=

beh~vior= devi~ted= from= norm~tive= st~nd~rdsK= fn= recent= ye~rsI= ~n=

extensive= ~nd= oftenJcited= äiter~ture= h~s= deveäoped= ~round= heuristics=

~nd=bi~sesK=

40

h~hnem~n= ~nd= qversky’s= rese~rch= h~s= resuäted= in= ~= theory= th~t=

provides= ~= system~tic= expä~n~tion= for= some= of= the= most= puzzäing=

~spects= of= hum~n= beh~viorI= ~nd= spe~rhe~ded= the= growth= of= ~= new=

discipäine= of= science= devoted= to= the= beh~vior~ä= ~spects= of= decision=

m~kingK= h~hnem~n= ~nd= qversky’s= work= h~s= begun= to= ~ttr~ct= the=

~ttention= of= wider= ~udience= –= doctorsI= ä~wyersI= businessI= m~rketers=

~nd= poäitici~ns= who= sees= ~ppäic~tion= for= it= in= choosing= ther~piesI=

devising= äeg~ä= ~rguments= ~nd= corpor~te= str~tegiesI= ~nd= even=

conducting=foreign=~ff~irsK==

NWO eeuristics – what it is?

NWOWN aefinition of eeuristics

pimon= ENVVOFI= the= f~ther= of= heuristics= rese~rch= in= judgment= ~nd=

decision= m~king= defines= heuristics= ~s= “methods= of= ~rriving= ~t=

s~tisf~ctory= soäutions= with= modest= ~mounts= of= comput~tions≤I=

suggesting= th~t= peopäe= seek= to= reduce= the= efforts= ~ssoci~ted= with=

decision=m~king=processK=Consumers=~dopt=short=cuts=in=their=decision=

m~king= process= of= br~nd= choiceK= qhey= ~re= methods= of= soäving=

probäems= or= situ~tions= where= no= formuä~s= existK= eeuristics= therefore=

c~n= be= referred= to= ~s= methods= th~t= use= principäes= of= effort= reduction=

~nd= simpäific~tionK= _y= definitionI= heuristics= must= ~ääow= consumers= to=

process= inform~tion= in=~= äess=effortfuä=m~nner= th~n=one= wouäd=expect=

from=~n=optim~ä=decision=ruäeK==

41

h~hnem~n=~nd=qversky=h~ve=identified=three=cognitive=heuristics=used=

in=decision=m~king=which=~re=described=beäowK=

NWOWO oepresentativeness

then= using= represent~tivenessI= the= hum~n= decision= m~ker= decides=

prob~biäity=b~sed=on=the=degree=to=which=one=group=is=represent~tive=of=

~notherK=qhis=~ppro~ch=c~n=äe~d=to=errors=bec~use=represent~tiveness=

is=not=infäuenced=by=prob~biäityK==

oepresent~tiveness=c~n=express=itseäf=through=muätipäe=bi~sesW==

·= fnsensitivity= to=p~mple=pizeW=qhe=s~mpäe=size=wiää=not=~ffect=the=

~biäity= of= hum~ns= to= judge= the= represent~tiveness= of= ~= s~mpäe=

from= the= popuä~tionK= qhis= runs= in= contr~st= to= s~mpäing= theory=

which=s~ys= th~t=~= ä~rger=s~mpäe=size=is= äess=äikeäy= to=str~y=from=

the=me~nK==

·= Ch~nceW= eum~ns= view= ch~nce= ~s= ~= seäfJcorrecting= process= in=

which= one= outcome= wiää= be= the= opposite= of= ~= previous= one= in=

order=to=reg~in=b~ä~nceK==

·= fllusion= of= s~lidityW= qhis= bi~s= produces= ~n= unjustifi~bäe=

confidence=in=the=reä~ted=decisionK=qhis=unjustifi~bäe=confidence=

is= cre~ted= by= ~= good= fit= between= input= inform~tion= ~nd= the=

predicted=outcomeK==

·= jisconceptions= of= oegressionW= qhe= hum~n= beäieves= th~t= ~=

predicted= outcome= shouäd= be= represent~tive= of= the= inputK= qhis=

42

runs=in=contr~st=to=regression=tow~rds=the=me~nI=which=s~ys=th~t=

eventsI=over=timeI=wiää=regress=tow~rds=the=me~nK==

oepresent~tiveness= refers= to= m~king= ~n= uncert~inty= judgment= on= the=

b~sis= of= the= degree= to= which= it= is= EiF= which= is= simiä~r= in= essenti~ä=

properties=to=its=p~rent=popuä~tion=~nd=EiiF=refäects=the=s~äient=fe~tures=of=

the=process=by=which=it=is=gener~tedK==

NWOWP Availability

^v~iä~biäity=is=used=to=estim~te=frequency=or=prob~biäity=by=the=e~se=with=

which= inst~nces= or= ~ssoci~tions= come= to= mindK= fn= contr~st= to=

represent~tiveness= which= invoäves= ~ssessments= of= simiä~rity= or=

connot~tive= dist~nceI= ~v~iä~biäity= refäects= ~ssessment= of= ~ssoci~tive=

dist~nceK= ^v~iä~biäity= h~s= been= reported= to= be= infäuenced= by=

im~gin~biäityI= f~miäi~rity= ~nd= vividnessI= ~nd= h~s= been= reported= by=

evidence=of=stereotype=~nd=scen~rio=thinkingK=

^v~iä~biäity= is=~=usefuä= heuristic=when= the=hum~n=needs= to=~ssess= the=

prob~biäity=of=~n=event=or=even=the=frequency=of=~=cä~ss=by=how=e~siäy=

the= occurrences= c~n= be= brought= to= mindK= qhe= ~v~iä~biäity= heuristic=

c~uses=the=decision=m~ker=to=seäect=the=hypothesis=th~t=is=most=re~diäy=

~v~iä~bäe=in=memory=r~ther=th~n=the=one=th~t=is=the=most=äikeäy=Eeuey=C=

tickensI=NVVPFK==

cour= bi~ses=~re=~ssoci~ted=with= this=heuristic= Eqversky=C= h~hnem~nI=

OMMMFW==

43

·= oetriev~bility=of= fnst~ncesW=Cä~sses=with=inst~nces=th~t=come=to=

mind=e~siäy=~re=judged=by=the=hum~n=to=be=more=numerous=th~n=

othersK==

·= bffectiveness= of= pe~rch= petW= then= ~= se~rch= for= one= cä~ss= is=

e~sier=th~n=th~t=for=~notherI= it=bi~ses=the=hum~n=who=therefore=

tends=to=erroneousäy=judge=the=cä~ss=to=be=more=frequentK==

·= fllusory=Correl~tionW=qhis=bi~s=c~uses=the=hum~n=to=overestim~te=

the= coJoccurrence= of= eventLobjects= due= to= the= strength= of= the=

perceived=~ssoci~tion=between=the=twoK==

·= fm~gin~bilityW= qhis= bi~s= ~ffects= how= the= hum~n= ~ssesses= the=

frequency= of= something= b~sed= on= ~= given= ruäeK= qhis= pä~ys= ~=

ä~rge=roäe=in=the=ev~äu~tion=of=prob~biäities=in=re~äJäife=situ~tionsK==

^v~iä~biäity=bi~ses=~re=~mpäified=when=decision=m~kers=oper~te=under=

stress=due=to=the=effects=of=noiseI=d~ngerI=~nd=time=pressureK=ptress=is=

~äso=~=c~use=of=perceptu~ä= tunneäing=which=occurs=when= the=decision=

m~ker= focuses=on= the=most=subjectiveäy= import~nt= inform~tion=sourceI=

which=m~y=not=h~ve=~=direct=correä~tion=with=its=true=reäi~biäity=Eeuey=C=

tickensI=NVVPFK=

NWOWQ Anchoring –and-Adjustment

^nchoring=~nd=~djustment=invoäves=st~rting=from=~n=initi~ä=v~äue=th~t=is=

~djusted= to= yieäd= the= fin~ä= ~nswerK= qhe= initi~ä= v~äueI= or= st~rting= pointI=

m~y=be=suggested=by=the=formuä~tion=of= the=probäemI=or=it=m~y=be=the=

44

resuät=of=~=p~rti~ä=comput~tionK=fn=either=c~seI=~djustments=~re=typic~ääy=

insufficientK==

qhe= ~djustment= ~nd= ~nchoring= heuristic= suggests= th~t= peopäe= m~ke=

estim~tes=EdecisionsF=b~sed=on=~n=initi~ä=st~rting=v~äue=th~t=is=~djusted=

to= re~ch= ~= concäusionK= qhis= bi~s= occurs= when= these= estim~tes= ~re=

bi~sed= tow~rds= the= initi~ä= v~äueI= äe~ding= to= ~n= overestim~tion= or= ~n=

underestim~tion=of=~=fin~ä=v~äueK=qhe=two=~ssoci~ted=bi~ses=~reW==

·= Confirm~tionW= ^= decision= m~ker’s= tendency= to= p~y= ~ttention= to=

inform~tion= th~t= supports= ~= current= hypothesis= ~nd= disreg~rd=

inform~tion=th~t=m~y=support=~n=~ätern~tive=hypothesisK==

·= p~lienceW=qhe= tendency= to= focus=on= the=most=s~äient= cue=when=

integr~ting=muätipäe=inform~tion=sourcesI=even=though=it=m~y=not=

be=the=most=indic~tiveK==

NWPWN Brand Choice

Consumers’=choice= is= inherentäy=~=dyn~mic=processK=oese~rch= tiää= this=

d~te= reve~äs= th~t= whether= one= is= observing= ~= routine= purch~se= of=

br~nds=or=once=–=in=–=äife=time=choices=of=housingI=choices=m~de=in=the=

present=impäicitäy=refäects=wh~t=h~s=been=äe~rnt=from=the=p~st=~nd=often=

expect~tions=of=the=futureK=vetI=whiäe= the=import~nce=of=underst~nding=

the=n~ture= of=dyn~mic= infäuences=on= choice= is=wideäy= recognizedI= the=

knowäedge= of= how= choices= evoäve= rem~ins= highäy= fr~gmentedK= qhe=

second= ~ttempt= of= this= study= is= to= underst~nd= the= dyn~mics= of= the=

45

choice= procedure= ~nd= to= find= the= effects= of= these= dyn~mics= on= the=

choice=modeäs=m~rketers=use=to=predict=future=choice=prob~biäitiesK=

NWPWO aefinition of Brand Choice

_r~nd= choice= is= defined= ~s= ~= decision= m~king= process= conducted= by=

consumers= for= seäecting= ~= p~rticuä~r= br~nd= from= ~= number= of= br~nds=

th~t=~re=present=in=hisLher=consider~tion=set=through=the=~ppäic~tion=of=

some=choice=ruäesK=

NWQ cactors fnfluencing the rse of eeuristics by

Consumers

j~ny=m~rketers=~re=of=the=opinion=th~t=consumers’=choice=of=br~nd=is=

b~sed= on= the= ev~äu~tion= of= the= ~ttributes= of= ~ää= the= br~nds= in= their=

choice= setK=lne= m~y= thereforeI= find=m~ny= m~rketing= communic~tions=

str~tegies= ~re= designed= to= n~rr~te= ~nd= highäight= the= ~ttributes= of= the=

br~ndsK=fn=spite=of=designing=the=best=of=the=m~rketing=communic~tion=

str~tegies=~nd=best=of=the=m~rketing=pä~nsI=m~rketers=~re=surprised=to=

know= th~t= consumers= h~ve= ended= up= choosing= competitors’= br~ndsK=

qhis=m~y=be=due=to=the=use=of=heuristics=by=consumers=in=their=decision=

m~king=processK=qhe=use=of=heuristics=by=consumers=is=expected=to=be=

more=in=their=routine=purch~ses=of=cjCd=c~tegoryK==

qhe= re~sons= for= use= of= heuristics= ~re= m~nyI= out= of= which= the= most=

import~nt=ones=~re=considered=for=this=studyK==

46

NWQWN euman jemory

lne= of= the= m~in= re~sons= for= consumers= to= use= heuristics= is= the=

~v~iä~biäity=of= äimited=cognitive=resourcesK=^t=one=point=of= timeI=hum~n=

memory=c~n=~ttend=T=H=or=–=O=chunks=of=inform~tionK=tith=such=äimited=

c~p~city= to= process= d~t~I= consumers= resort= to= using= heuristics= whiäe=

m~king=~=decisionK=

NWQWO The teighted Additive Algorithm

^Kkeweää= ~nd= pimon= ENVTOFI= used= the= word= heuristics= to= describe=

simpäe=processes=th~t=repä~ce=compäex=~ägorithms= in=decision=m~kingK=

lne= m~y= be= required= to= process= compäex= ~ägorithms= whiäe= m~king= ~=

decisionK= fn= judgment=~nd=decision=m~kingI= the=weighted=~dditive=ruäe=

is= one= such= compäex= ~ägorithm= for= ~rriving= ~t= compäex= decisions= ~nd=

~ccur~te= judgmentsK= ^ccording= to= the= weighted= ~dditive= ruäeI=

consumers= consider= ~ää= the= ~v~iä~bäe= ~ätern~tives= ~nd= cues= for= e~ch=

~ätern~tiveK=Consumers=must=weight=e~ch=cue=~ccording=to=objective=or=

subjective=impressions=of=how=it=contributes=to=the=over~ää=v~äueK=lnce=

the= consumer= ~rrive= ~t= ~= weighting= principäe= ~nd= ~ssign= weights= to=

e~ch=cueI=they=must=then=c~äcuä~te=the=v~äue=for=e~ch=~ätern~tiveK=b~ch=

cue’s= v~äue= is= muätipäied= by= its= corresponding= weightI= ~nd= these=

products= ~re= summed= to= yieäd= the= over~ää= v~äue= of= the= ~ätern~tiveK=

rätim~teäy=using=the=weighted=~dditive=ruäe=consistentäy=requires=peopäe=

to=expend=effort=on=five=t~sksK=

47

NK= fdentifying= ~ää= cues= –= ~ää= reäev~nt= pieces= of= inform~tion= must= be=

~cknowäedgedK=

OK=oec~ääing=~nd=storing=~ää=the=cues=v~äues=–=the=v~äues=for=the=pieces=

of=inform~tion=must=either=be=rec~ääed=from=memory=or=processed=from=

extern~ä=sourceK=

PK=^ssessing=the=weights=of=e~ch=cue=–=the=import~nce=of=e~ch=piece=of=

inform~tion=must=be=determinedK==

QK=fntegr~ting=inform~tion=for=~ää=~ätern~tives=–=the=weighted=cue=v~äues=

must= be= summed= to= yieäd= ~n= over~ää= utiäity= v~äue= or= utiäity= for= the=

~ätern~tiveK= fn=the=c~se=of= inference=or= judgmentI= this= is=the=fin~ä=stepI=

~nd= it= produces= the= t~rget= judgmentI= ~nd= it= produces= the= t~rget=

judgment=v~äueK=

RK=^ää=~ätern~tives=must=be=comp~redI=~nd=then=the=~ätern~tive=with=the=

highest=v~äue=shouäd=be=seäectedK==

Cäe~räyI= such= ~ägorithm= requires= gre~t= ment~ä= effortX= howeverI= peopäe=

do=not=h~ve=unäimited=processing=c~p~cityK=meopäe=must=oper~te=within=

the=constr~ints=imposed=both=by=their=cognitive=resources=~nd=the=t~sk=

environment=–=~=concept=known=~s=bounded=r~tion~äityK=^s=the=dem~nd=

on= äimited=cognitive= resources= incre~seI=peopäe=m~y=empäoy= methods=

or=str~tegies=th~t=reduce=effort=they=expend=on=comput~tionK=eeuristics=

therefore= c~n= be= referred= to= ~s= methods= th~t= use= principäes= of= effort=

reduction= ~nd= simpäific~tionK= _y= definitionI= heuristics= must= ~ääow=

48

consumers= to=process=inform~tion= in=~= äess=effortfuä=m~nner= th~n=one=

wouäd=expect=from=~n=optim~ä=decision=ruäeK==

ln= the= b~sis= of= the= study= on= heuristics= ~nd= its= use= by= consumers= in=

their= choice= processI= ~n= ~ttempt= w~s= m~de= to= deveäop= ~= st~tistic~ä=

modeä= th~t= c~äcuä~tes= future= prob~biäities= of= br~nd= choiceK= qhe=

st~tistic~ä=modeä=is=described=beäowK=

NWQWP Time – Critical aecision jaking

then= timeJcritic~ä= decisions= need= to= be= m~de= in= ~= dyn~mic=

environmentI= the= consumers= ch~nges= their= cognitive= processing=

methods= Ej~uäeI= NVVTFK= eow= signific~ntäy= these= cognitive= processing=

methods=~re=modified=is=~=function=of=the=time=eäement=~ssoci~ted=with=

the= decisionK= qhe= shorter= the= ~v~iä~bäe= time= to= m~ke= ~= decision= the=

more=the=decision=m~ker=modifies=their=cognitive=processing=methodsK=

j~uäe= ENVVTF= m~kes=~= distinction=between= the=ch~nges= th~t=occur= in=

cognitive= processing= methods= when= the= consumer= is= under= time=

pressure= versus= those= th~t= occur= when= the= consumer= is= under= time=

stressK=qime=pressure=provides=incre~sed=urgency= for=finishing=~= t~skX=

whiäe=the=more=extreme=st~te=of=time=stress=occurs=when=the=decision=

m~ker= determines= th~t= there= is= insufficient= time= for= t~sk= compäetionK=

diven=the=dem~nds=of=the=f^’s=t~skI=underst~nding=how=time=pressure=

imp~cts= the= decision= m~ker’s= cognitive= processing= methods= is= more=

reäev~nt=to=the=rese~rch=th~n=the=potenti~ä=imp~cts=of=time=stressK==

_ro~däyI= j~uäe= ENVVTF= notes= th~t= time= pressure= shifts= the= cognitive=

processing= focus= of= the= decision= m~ker= from= extern~ä= inform~tion=

49

sources= to= intern~ä= inform~tion= sourcesK= qhis=shift= c~n= ~ffect=decision=

m~kingI=~s= intern~ä=sources=~re=gener~ääy=more=neutr~ä= th~n=the=more=

poä~rizing= extern~ä= inform~tion= sourcesK= qime= pressure= c~n= ~äso=

incre~se=~=decision=m~ker’s=reäi~nce=on=the=more=import~nt=~spects=of=

reäev~nt=inform~tion=whiäe=decre~sing= the=consider~tion=given=to=other=

äess= essenti~ä= ~ttribute= inform~tionK= fnterestingäyI= m~yne= et= ~äK= ENVVMF=

compäeted= studies= indic~ting= ~= decre~se= in= the= qu~äity= of= decision=

m~king=~s=~=resuät=of=time=pressureK==

ppecific~ääyI= j~uäe= ENVVTF= identifies= five= distinct= ch~nges= in= cognitive=

processing=methods=decision=m~kers=often=empäoy=in=response=to=time=

pressureK=qhese=~reW==

·= Acceler~tionW= qhe= consumer= incre~ses= the= speed= of= their=

inform~tion=processingK==

·= ciltr~tionW=qhe=consumer=reduces=the=tot~ä=~mount=of=inform~tion=

they=processK==

·= pwitch=from=Compens~tory=to=koncompens~toryW=aecision=ruäes=

c~n= be= cä~ssified= ~s= compens~tory= or= noncompens~toryK=

Compens~tory= ruäes= ~ääow= for= ~= neg~tive= ev~äu~tion= of= ~n=

~ttribute=to=be=compens~ted=by=~=positive=ev~äu~tion=of=~notherK=

koncompens~tory= ruäes= disc~rd= ~= choice= when= ~= neg~tive=

ev~äu~tion=is=m~deK==

·= pwitch= from=~ltern~tiveJb~sed= to=~ttributeJb~sedW= fn=~ätern~tiveJ

b~sed= inform~tion= processing= the= decision= m~ker= seäects= ~n=

~ätern~tive= ~nd= ev~äu~tes= it= b~sed= on= ~ää= reäev~nt= ~ttributes=

50

where~s= in= ~ttributeJb~sed= inform~tion= processing= the= decision=

m~ker=seäects=~n=~ttribute=of=~=choice=~nd=comp~res=~ää=choices=

b~sed= on= th~t= p~rticuä~r= ~ttributeK= E^bduäJjuhminI= NVVVFK=

m~yne’s= ENVVMF= studies= showed= simpäer= str~tegies= of= b~sic=

se~rch=~nd=ev~äu~tion=of=the=most=import~nt=~ttribute=inform~tion=

to=be=optim~ä=under=time=pressureK==

·= Ch~nge= the= CostJBenefit= An~lysisW= qhe= consumer= reJev~äu~tes=

the= v~äue= of= using= ~= p~rticuä~r= str~tegy= ~g~inst= the= ~ssoci~ted=

cost=of=impäementing=the=str~tegy=within=the=~ääotted=timeK==

pever~ä= issues=need=to=be=considered=when=using=these=str~tegies=~s=

their=empäoymentI=me~nt= to=~ääevi~te= the= time=pressureI=often= induces=

errors= in= decision= m~king= Eeog~rthI= NVUTFK= brrors= c~n= occur= when=

confäicts=~rise=between=st~tistic~ä= re~soning=principäes=~nd= the=hum~n=

tendency= to= think= c~us~ääyI= ~s= there= is= the= potenti~ä= to= combine=

inform~tion=sources=th~t=~re=not=st~tistic~ääy= independentK=^ddition~ääyI=

the=m~nner=in=which=cognitive=str~tegies=inter~ct=with=judgment~ä=t~sks=

shouäd=be=consideredI=~s=issues=such=~s=the=order=in=which=inform~tion=

is=presentedI= the=differenti~ä=~v~iä~biäity=of= inform~tionI=~nd= the=n~ture=

Epositive=~nd=neg~tiveF=of=the=inform~tion=c~n=erroneousäy=infäuence=the=

decision=m~kerK=

CompäexI=dyn~mic=environments=often=utiäize=~n=incre~sed=inform~tion=

dom~in= cre~ted= through= the= sh~ring= of= ~nd= ~ccess= to= inform~tionK=

fntuitiveäyI=in=this=inform~tion=rich=dom~inI=the=time=pressure=~ssoci~ted=

51

with= timeJcritic~ä= decision= m~king= c~n= äe~d= to= the= empäoyment= of= ~=

v~riety=of=techniquesI=by=the=consumerI=to=~ääevi~te=the=time=pressureK=

then= this= timeJpressure= persistsI= the= consumer= often= ch~nges= their=

cognitive= processing= methods= which= c~n= äe~d= to= the= use= of= cognitive=

heuristics=~nd=bi~sesK==

NWQWQ fnformation mrocessing

= = = = = torking=jemory= = = = ^ttention=

=

Cues= = merception= = = ===processingL=================oesponding== = = = = aecision=j~king==

iong Term jemory

cigKNWN – fnformation mrocessing jodel

=

euey=~nd=tickens’=inform~tion=processing=modeä=E~d~pted=from=euey=

~nd=tickensI=NVVPF=~ppe~rs=in=cigure=NWNK=_riefäyI=their=work=identifies=

three= m~jor= st~ges= of= inform~tion= processingK= qhese= ~re= perceptionI=

processingI= ~nd= respondingK= euey= ~nd=tickens= ENVVPF= suggest= th~t=

this=cognitive=function=is=~n=iter~tive=process=where=e~ch=decision=th~t=

is= m~de= ~dds= knowäedge= to= the= preJexisting= äongJterm= memory=

repositoryK= fnform~tion= in= working= memory= is= interpreted= b~sed= on=

knowäedge=in=äongJterm=memoryK=pchemes=~re=storedI=m~king=it=e~sier=

to=identify=~n=object=th~t=is=f~miäi~rK=lver=timeI=these=schemes= äe~d=to=

the=deveäopment=of=heuristic=str~tegies=me~nt=to=improve=efficiency=~nd=

v~äidity= of= the= inform~tion= processing= functionI= howeverI= the=

52

empäoyment=of= these=heuristics=c~n=~äso= äe~d= to=decision=degr~d~tion=

due=to=the=presence=of=bi~ses=~ssoci~ted=with=the=heuristicsK==

qhe=inform~tion=processing=modeä= is=import~nt=to=underst~nd=bec~use=

of= its= bro~d= ~ppäic~biäity= to= numerous= cognitive= t~sksK= lbject=

identific~tionI= the= focus= of= the= rese~rch= undert~ken= ~nd= discussed=

hereinI=isI=~t=its=coreI=~n=inform~tion=processing=t~skK=qhe=extension=of=

this= reä~tionship= between= object= identific~tion= ~nd= inform~tion=

processing= suggests= th~t= the= bi~ses= present= in= one= t~sk= reä~ted= to=

inform~tion= processing= h~ve= the= potenti~ä= to= exist= in= ~ny= t~sk= where=

inform~tion= processing= is= centr~ä= to= its= executionK= qhis= ~ssertion= is=

boästered= by= the= comm~nd= ~nd= controä= rese~rch= of= auv~ää= EOMMRFI=

which= m~pped= the= lbserveI= lrientI= aecideI= ~nd= ^ct= modeä= to= euey=

~nd=tickens=inform~tion=processing=modeäI=~nd=denoted=the=presence=

of= sever~ä= bi~sesK= pome= of= these= bi~ses= were= ~äso= present= in= this=

object= identific~tion= rese~rchK= qhusI= ~n= effective= decision= support=

system= th~t= mitig~tes= bi~ses= ~rising= during= the= object= identific~tion=

t~skI= äikeäy= h~s= extensibiäity= to= other= inform~tion= processing= b~sed=

t~sksK==

qhe=äiter~ture=identifies=sever~ä=bi~ses=th~t=~ppe~r=to=h~ve=the=potenti~ä=

to=~ffect= the= qu~äity= of=decisions= m~de= during= the= object= identific~tion=

t~skK=^=discussion=of=these=specific=bi~ses=foääowsK==

^=recent=work=by=^rnott=EOMMSF=contributes=~n=exh~ustive=t~xonomy=of=

cognitive= bi~ses= identified= by= decision= theory= rese~rchersK= qhis=

t~xonomy=of=bi~ses=is=divided=into=six=bro~d=c~tegoriesK=qhey=~reW==

·= jemoryW=_i~ses=invoäving=the=stor~ge=~nd=rec~ää=of=inform~tionK==

53

·= pt~tistic~lW=_i~ses=referring=to=the=decision=m~ker=going=~g~inst=

norm~tive= principäes= of= prob~biäity= theory= during= inform~tion=

processingK==

·= ConfidenceW= _i~ses= serving= to= incre~se= the= decision= m~ker’s=

confidence=in=their=~biäity=to=m~ke=good=decisionsK==

·= mresent~tionW=_i~ses=skewing=the=w~y=decision=m~kers=perceive=

~nd=process=inform~tionK==

·= pitu~tionW= _i~ses= concerning= the= m~nner= in= which= peopäe=

respond=to=the=over~ää=decision=m~king=environmentK==

·= AdjustmentW= _i~ses= ~ffecting= the= w~y= decision= m~kers= m~ke=

~djustments=from=~=given=positionK==

NWR The ptatistical jodel Brand Choice

qhe= prim~ry= objective= of= this= work= is= to= deveäop= ~= fr~mework= for=

modeäing= choice= beh~vior= which= is= consistent= with= the= existing=

beh~vior~ä= theoriesI= emph~sizes= ~= c~us~ä= structur~ä= formuä~tionI=

m~them~tic~ääy=tr~ct~bäe=~nd=empiric~ääy=verifi~bäeK=qhe=study=shouäd=be=

fäexibäe= enough= to= c~pture= unobserved= heterogeneity= in= the= choice=

beh~vior=stemming=from=

^K= Choice=sets=considered=by=consumersK=

_K= q~ste=v~ri~tions=~cross=consumers==

CK= ^ttitudes=~nd=perceptions=of=consumers=since=underäying=choice=

process=h~s=~=signific~nt=psychoäogic~ä=component=

54

aK= aecision=protocoäs=~dopted=by=consumers=in=~rriving=~t=~=choiceK=

qo= eä~bor~te= furtherI= the= study= sh~ää= expäore= the= possibiäity= of=

consumers=using=heuristics= in= their=decision=m~king=process=of=br~nd=

choiceK= qhe= study= shouäd= heäp= to= underst~nd= the= dyn~mics= of= the=

choice= procedure= ~nd= to= find= the= effects= of= these= dyn~mics= on= the=

choice=modeäs=m~rketers=use=to=predict=future=choice=prob~biäities=with=

speci~ä=reference=to=cjCdK==

NWRWN aefinition of ptatistical jodel

lne=of= the= import~nt= steps= in= st~tistic~ä= science= is= the=construction=of=

prob~biäistic=modeä= th~t= represent=or= sufficientäy=~pproxim~teI= the= true=

gener~ting= mech~nism= of= ~= phenomenon= under= studyK= qhe=

construction= of= such= modeä= is= b~sed= on= prob~biäistic= ~nd= äogic~ä=

~rguments=concerning=the=n~ture=~nd=function=of=~=given=phenomenonK==

iet=us= ~ssume= th~t= ~= r~ndom=v~ri~bäe= vI= c~ääed= the= responseI=which=

foääows=~=prob~biäistic=ruäe=with=prob~biäity=function=fEy|θFI=where=θ=is=the=

p~r~meter= vectorK= Consider= ~n= independentI= identic~ääy= distributed=

EiKiKdF =s~mpäe =y =Z =xyNI =yOI =… =ynzq= of= size= n= of= this= v~ri~bäeX= where= ^q=

denotes=the=tr~nspose=of=~=vector=or=m~trix=^K=the=joint=distribution==

= = = = =

=

fEy|θF=Z=Π=fEyi|θF=

=

n

i=1

55

is= c~ääed= the= äikeäihood= of= the= modeä= ~nd= cont~ins= the= ~v~iä~bäe=

inform~tion=provided=by=the=observed=s~mpäeK==

rsu~ääy=modeäs=~re=constructed= in=order= to=~ssess=or= interpret= c~us~ä=

reä~tionships= between= the= response= v~ri~bäe= v= ~nd= v~rious=

ch~r~cteristics=expressed=~s=v~ri~bäes=ujI=j=Є=sI=c~ääed=the=cov~ri~tes=or=

the=expä~n~tory=v~ri~bäesX=j=indic~tes=~=cov~ri~te=or=~=modeä=term=~nd=s=

indic~tes= the= set=of= ~ää= the= terms=under= consider~tionK= fn= such=c~sesI=

the=expä~n~tory=v~ri~bäes=~re= äinked=with= the=response=v~ri~bäes=vi~=~=

deterministic= function= ~nd= p~rt= of= the= origin~ä= p~r~meter= vector= is=

substituted= by= ~n= ~ätern~tive= set= of= p~r~meters= denoted= by= β= th~t=

usu~ääy= enc~psuä~tes= the= effect= of= e~ch= cov~ri~te= on= the= response=

v~ri~bäeK=cor=ex~mpäe=in=~=norm~ä=regression=modeä=with=y=~=kEXβ,σOf=F=

the=p~r~meter=vector=is=given=by=θq=Z=xβqI=σOz==

qhe=modeä=deveäoped=in=this=study=~ccommod~tes=the=use=of=heuristics=

by= the= consumers= in= their= decisions= on= br~nd= choiceK= cour=

psychoäogic~ä= st~tes= ~re= identified= in= this= studyK= ^= consumer= is=

expected=to=be=in=one=of=the=psychoäogic~ä=st~te=whiäe=t~king=~=decision=

on=br~nd=choiceK=qhe=modeä=incorpor~tes=st~tistic~ä=expression=for=e~ch=

psychoäogic~ä= st~teK= qhe= b~sis= of= ~n~äysis= is= muätinomi~ä= äogistic=

regressionI= p~r~meters= of= e~ch= moduäe= ~re= c~äcuä~ted= which= proves=

the=äogic=of=the=psychoäogic~ä=mode=st~tistic~ääyK==

qhe=four=psychoäogic~ä=modes=identified=~re==

NK= ^ttribute=s~äue=_~se=jode=E^s_jF=

56

OK= lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jode=Els_jF=

PK= au~ä=jode=EeybridF=–=qime=fnv~ri~nt==

QK= au~ä=jode=EeybridF=–=qime=s~ri~nt=

NWRWNWO Attribute salue Base jode

oecent= rese~rch= indic~te= th~t= consumers= frequentäy= do= not= h~ve=

predefined= preferences= but= inste~d= construct= their= preferences= ~s=

needed= to= m~ke= their= choiceK= qo= construct= these= preferencesI=

consumers=use=~=v~riety=of=choice=ruäesK=lne=b~sic=ruäe=is=to=ev~äu~te=

~ää=the=br~nds=in=the=consider~tion=set=on=the=~ctu~ä=~ttribute=v~äue=~nd=

the=br~nd=with=the=highest=v~äue=is=chosenK=qhe=moduäe=deveäoped=for=

this= psychoäogic~ä= mode= is= pureäy= b~sed= on= the= muätinomi~ä= äogistic=

regressionK=ouäes= used= by= the= consumers= use=~ctu~ä= ~ttribute= v~äues=

~s= inputsK= _ut= such= ruäes= require= the= consumer= to= use= weighted=

~dditive=ruäe=th~t=considers=the=~ctu~ä=v~äues=of=~ää= the=~ätern~tives=on=

~ää= the= reäev~nt= ~ttributesK= qhe= st~tistic~ä= expression= for= ^s_j= is=

mentioned=beäowK=

=

rsing=such=weighted=~dditive=ruäe=~ägorithm=to=ev~äu~te=routine=br~nds=

äike= cjCd= is= too= big= ~= t~sk= for= hum~n= memory= even= for= simpäe=

57

products=~nd=even=when=fuää=inform~tion=is=~v~iä~bäeK=qhis=gives=w~y=to=

find=how=~=consumerI=thenI=m~kes=~=br~nd=choiceK=qhe=~nswer=to=this=

ä~ys= in= the= next= psychoäogic~ä= mode= the= ordered= v~äue= b~se= mode=

which=is=described=beäowK=

NWRWNWP lrdered salue Base jode

then=it=comes=to=routine=purch~sesI=consumers=h~rdäy=invest=time=~nd=

efforts= to= choose= their= br~ndsK= merh~ps= consumers= might= h~ve=

ev~äu~ted=every=br~nd=in=the=consider~tion=set=e~räierX=they=then=h~rdäy=

t~ke=~ny=efforts=to=reJev~äu~te=them=for=the=next=purch~seK=Consumers=

m~ke= use= of= cert~in= ruäes= to= convert= these= ~ctu~ä= ~ttribute= v~äues= to=

more= psychoäogic~ääy= me~ningfuäI= better= –= defined= ordered= v~äuesK=

Choices=~re=then=b~sed=on=these=ordered=v~äuesK==

qhe=order=of=preference=of=the=br~nds=sh~ää=rem~in=the=s~me=~s=äong=~s=

products’=reä~tive=positions=~äong=~ttributes=~re=preservedK=qo=st~tistic~ä=

expression=for=the=ls_j=mode=uses=the=expression=of=^s_j=but=with=

~= differenceK= pignum= function= is= used= for= sign~äing= ~= ch~nge= in= the=

order= of= the= br~ndK= fn= this= modeä= ~ny= ch~nge= th~t= preserves= the=

ordering=of=products’=v~äues=~äong=the=~ttribute=äe~ves=signum=function=

unch~ngedK=

58

=

qhe= ls_j= st~te= of= psychoäogy= is= dependent= on= the= ^s_jK=

Consumers= c~n= switch= between= modes= whiäe= m~king= ~= decision= on=

br~nd= choiceK= qh~t= is= their= psychoäogy= c~n= be= in= both= the= st~te= of=

modes=~nd=they=keep=switching=from=one=mode=to=~nother=depending=

upon=the=ch~nges=th~t=t~ke=pä~ce=in=the=~ttribute=v~äuesK=qhe=mode=th~t=

~ccommod~tes=both=^s_j=~nd=ls_j=is=termed=~s=du~ä= modeK=au~ä=

mode= c~n= be= either= time= v~ri~nt= or= time= inv~ri~ntK= _oth= these= ~re=

described=beäowK=

NWRWNWQ aual jode – Time fnvariant

ff= ~= consumer= oper~tes= in= ^s_j= on= one= occ~sionI= the= consumer=

oper~tes=in=^s_j=on=~ää=the=occ~sionsK==

NWRWNWR aual jode – Time sariant

qhe= consumer= switches= from= one= mode= to= ~nother= whiäe= m~king= ~=

decision=on=br~nd=choice=depending=upon=the=product=c~tegoryK==

59

NWS jodel bxecution

qhe= four=moduäes= of= the=st~tistic~ä=modeä= ~re=converted= into=softw~re=

progr~ms=~nd=executed=with=the=heäp=of=softw~re=known=~s=tin_rdpK=

qhe=utiäity=function=used=five=~ttributesW=~=dummy=term=corresponding=to=

br~ndOI=~=dummy=term=corresponding=to=br~ndPI=~=price=term=giving=the=

price=in=rupeesI=~=fe~ture=term=th~t=w~s=N=when=the=respondent=viewed=

the= ~dvertisement= ~nd= ~= M= w~s= ~ssigned= when= the= product= w~s= no=

~dvertised=or=viewed=~nd=~äso=~=M=–=N=v~ri~bäe= to=represent=when=the=

br~nd=w~s=speci~ääy=promotedLnot=promotedK==

_~yesi~n= fnference= ~nd= j~rkov= Ch~in= jonte= C~räo= jethod= EjCjCF=

~re= used= for= the= ~n~äysis= of= d~t~K= jCjC= w~s= used= to= ~ssess= the=

convergence=of=the=d~t~K=qhe=softw~re=codes=of=the=four=moduäes=were=

run= in= tin_rdp= ~nd= the= p~r~meters= of= the= four= moduäes= were=

c~äcuä~tedK==

qhe=execution=of=the=moduäes=refäects=the=äogic=th~t=the=consumers=c~n=

be= in= one= of= the= four= modes= of= psychoäogyK= qhe= consumers= ~re=

expected=to=be=in=ordered=v~äue=b~se=mode=most=of=time=whiäe=m~king=

~= br~nd= choice= in= the= cjCd= c~tegoryK= qhe= consumer= sh~ää= not= t~ke=

much=effort=to=switch=from=ls_j=to=^s_jK=qhis=m~y=be=due=to=the=use=

of=one=or=more=of=the=foääowing=heuristicsK=

NK= Brand kame eeuristics=which=st~tes=th~t=consumers=f~vor~bäy=

ev~äu~te=those=products=with=positiveäy=v~äenced=br~nd=n~mesK=

60

OK= mrice eeuristics= which= suggests= th~t= consumers= judge=

expensive=products=to=be=of=high=qu~äityK=

PK= bffort eeuristics= suggest= th~t= consumers= wiää= judge= products=

th~t=took=~=äong=time=to=produce=to=be=of=high=v~äue=

QK= fdiosyncratic cit eeuristics suggest= consumers= wiää= ev~äu~te=

consumer= äoy~äty= progr~ms= Ebuy= two= get= one= freeF= with=

person~ääy=reäev~nt=fe~tures=to=be=more=v~äu~bäeK==

RK= Audience oesponse eeuristics= st~tes= th~t= ~n= enthusi~stic=

~udience= response= to= ~= mess~ge= wiää= äe~d= consumers= to=

positiveäy=reg~rd=or=~gree=with=~=mess~geK==

SK= bndorsement eeuristics= suggest= th~t= peopäe= wiää= find=

mess~ges=more=convincing=if=~=positiveäy=reg~rded=org~niz~tion=

endorses=themK=

TK= bxpertise eeuristics=~re=the=ones=where=peopäe=~re=convinced=

by=experts=th~n=novicesK=

qhis=study=thus=~ttempts=to=prove=the=use=of=heuristics=in=the=decision=

m~king=process=of=br~nd=choiceK=^=st~tistic~ä=modeä=is=deveäoped=which=

~ccommod~tes= heuristics= in= the= comput~tion= of= future= choice=

prob~biäitiesK=

=

=

61

Ch~pter=O=

iiter~ture=oeview=m~rt=f=

eeuristics=C=_i~ses=

OWN=fntroduction=

OWO=qypes=of=eeuristics=fdentified=

OWP=_i~ses=

OWQ=_ounded=o~tion~äity=

OWR=pome=eeuristics=fdentified=in=j~rketing=

OWS=^n=bffort=oeduction=cr~mework=ptudying=eeuristics=

=

=

=

=

=

=

62

Ch~pter=O=

iiterature oeview mart - f

eeuristics and Biases

We Don’t See Things As They Are, We See Things As We Are

OWN fntroduction

qhe=concept=of=heuristics=w~s= first= introduced=by=pimon=ENVRVF= in=his=

discussion=on=“äimited=r~tion~äity≤K=ee=~rgued=th~t=bec~use=of=cognitive=

äimit~tionsI=hum~ns=h~ve=äittäe=option=but=to=construct=simpäified=modeäs=

of= the= worädK=eeuristics= ~re=~= product=of= these=simpäified=modeäs= ~nd=

provides= short= cuts= th~t= c~n= produce= decisionsK= pimon= observed=

heuristics= ~s= ~d~ptive= str~tegies= used= by= hum~ns= to= cope= with= their=

äimited= inform~tion= processing= c~p~cityK= ee= st~ted= th~t= heuristics= ~re=

“methods=for=~rriving=~t=s~tisf~ctory=soäutions=with=modest=~mounts=of=

comput~tionI≤= pimon= identified= s~tisficing= Eseäect= the= first= ~v~iä~bäe=

option=th~t=meets=univers~ä=st~nd~rdsF=~s=~=str~tegy=commonäy=used=in=

compäex=decision=situ~tionsK==

h~hnem~n= ~nd= qversky= g~ve= impetus= to= heuristics= by= proving= th~t=

beh~vior= often= does= not= even= ~pproxim~te= norm~tiveäy= optim~ä= ruäesK=

o~ther=peopäe=seem=to=reäy=on=h~ndy=ruäes=of=thumb=or=heuristicsK=

63

lftentimes= the= word= “heuristics≤= is= defined= ~s= ~= “ruäe= of= thumb≤= or= ~=

“ment~ä= shortcut≤= for=soäving=probäems=suggesting= th~t=peopäe=seek= to=

reduce=the=effort=~ssoci~ted=with=decision=processesK==

qhe= recent= rese~rch= in= the= ~re~= of= psychoäogy= into= the= bi~ses= ~nd=

heuristics= th~t= consumers= use= to=simpäify= decisions= is= äikeäy= to= modify=

the=strict=utiäity=m~ximiz~tion=modeäs=th~t=one=often=~ppäyK=qversky=~nd=

h~hnem~n= in= NVTQ= det~iäed= the= heuristics= ~nd= bi~ses= th~t= they=

observed= in= decision= m~kers= incäuding= consumersK= qhe= three= bi~ses=

th~t=they=identified=were=represent~tivenessI=~v~iä~biäity=~nd=~nchoringK=

qhese=~re=described=beäowK=

OWO Types of eeuristics fdentified

OWOWN oepresentativeness eeuristicsW==

qversky=~nd=h~hnem~n=ENVTQFS=suggested=th~t=peopäe=typic~ääy=reäy=on=

the= represent~tiveness= heuristics= whiäe= ~nswering= prob~biäistic=

questions=such=~s=wh~t= is= the=prob~biäity= th~t=event=^=origin~tes= from=

process= _?=qh~t= is= the= represent~tiveness= heuristics= is=used= when= ~=

person= must= determine= such= prob~biäities= b~sed= on= the= degree= to=

which=^=resembäes=_K==

oepresent~tiveness= heuristics= is= used= when= ~n= ~gent= must= upd~te= ~=

subjective= prob~biäity= with= new= inform~tionK= pometimes= peopäe= use=

_~ye’s=ä~w=when=upd~ting=prob~biäities==

=

64

mEuL^F=Z=mE^LuF=mEuF=

===============mE^F=

there= mE^F= is= the= condition~ä= prob~biäity= of= ^= given= u= ~nd= mEuF= ~nd=

mE^F= ~re= popuä~tion= p~r~meters= typic~ääy= referred= to= ~s= b~se= r~tesK=

thiäe=_~ye’s= ä~w=is=~=usefuä= st~tistic~ä= ruäeI=psychoäogists=h~ve= found=

th~t= peopäe= tend= to= ~ct= in= decidedäy= nonJ_~yesi~n= f~shion= ~nd= h~ve=

identified=~=number=of=subjective=prob~biäity=bi~ses=grouped=under=the=

umbreää~=of=represent~tiveness=heuristicsK==

qversky=~nd=h~hnem~n=noted=th~t=using=represent~tiveness=heuristics=

when= determining= the= prob~biäity= c~n= äe~d= to= insensitivity= to= prior=

prob~biäityI= or= b~se= r~te= frequency= of= the= outcomesK= fn= one= ex~mpäe=

subjects= were= ~sked= to= identify= ~= described= individu~ä= ~s= either= ~=

ä~wyer= or= ~n= engineerK= qhe= subjects= were= given= descriptions= th~t=

incäuded=phr~ses=such=~s= “he=we~rs=gä~sses≤K=pubjects=were= first= toäd=

th~t= the= individu~ä= in= question= w~s= dr~wn= from= ~= r~ndom= s~mpäe=

composed=of=NMM=peopäeI=TM=of=which=were=engineers=~nd=PM=of=which=

were=ä~wyersK=qhen=the=b~se=r~te=w~s=reversedK=qhe=subjects=were=toäd=

th~tI= of= NMM= peopäe= in= the= s~mpäeI= TM= were= ä~wyers= ~nd= thirty= were=

engineersK= h~hnem~nI= päovic= ~nd= qversky= found= th~t= the= subjects’=

prob~biäity= judgment= did= not= differ= when= the= b~se= r~te= w~s= ch~ngedI=

even= though= _~ye’s= ä~w= indic~te= th~t= the= condition~ä= prob~biäities=

c~nnot=be=equ~ä=if=the=b~se=r~tes=ch~ngeK==

65

OWOWO Availability eeuristicsSW==

qhis= type= of= heuristics= indic~tes= th~t= respondents= seäect= events= or=

outcomes= th~t= ~re= f~miäi~r= to= themI= even= in= defi~nce= of= the= true=

prob~biäitiesK=qhe=~v~iä~biäity=heuristics=describes=~=method=by=which=~=

person=determines=the=äikeäihood=of=~n=event=~ccording=to=the=e~se=with=

which= he= or= she= c~n= rec~ää= inst~nces= th~t= m~tch= the= eventK= qh~t= is=

one’s= experiences= ~nd= conditioning= ~ffect= how= ~= person= determines=

äikeäihood=th~t=~n=event=wiää=occurK=cor=ex~mpäeI=one=might=estim~te=the=

risk=of=~=burgä~ry=in=~=cert~in=neighborhood=by=the=number=of=burgä~ries=

one=c~n=rec~ääK=

^= simiä~r= method= is= the= simuä~tion= heuristicsI= by= which= peopäe= wiää=

determine= the=äikeäihood=of= the=events=b~sed=on=e~se=with=which= they=

c~n=simuä~te=or=im~gine=the=outcome=in=their=mindsK=^n=ex~mpäe=of=this=

is=~=person=who=determines=the=prob~biäity=th~t=~=v~äue=of=cert~in=stock=

wiää=decäine=b~sed=on=the=number=of=different=scen~rios=he=or=she=c~n=

e~siäy=im~gine=th~t=wouäd=c~use=such=~n=occurrenceK=

thiäe= ~v~iä~biäity= heuristics= c~n= often= be= heäpfuä= in= m~king= decisions=

~nd=estim~tesI=qversky=~nd=h~hnem~n=h~ve=äisted=sever~ä=bi~ses=th~t=

c~n=resuät=from=~v~iä~biäity=heuristicsK==

NK= _i~ses=due=to=retriev~biäity=of=inst~ncesI=th~t=isI=ex~mpäes=e~siäy=

brought= to= mind= ~re= often= judged= to= be= more= äikeäy= th~n= they=

~ctu~ääy=~reK==

66

OK= _i~ses= due= to= im~gin~biäityI= th~t= isI= e~siäy= im~gined= outcomes=

c~n=give=the=iääusion=th~t=they=~re=more=commonK=

PK= _i~ses= due= to= iääusory= correä~tionI= th~t= isI= one= event= strongäy=

impäies=~nother=if=the=two=events=occur=simuät~neousäyK=

^v~iä~biäity=heuristics=h~s=been=~ppäied=to=m~rketing=~nd=~dvertising=to=

investig~te= the= effects= of= retriev~ä= on= the= subjective= ~ssessment= of=

product= f~iäureK=coäkes= ENVUUF= presents= four=studies= in= which=subjects=

were=~sked=to=predict=how=äikeäy=v~rious=products=were=to=f~iäK=aifferent=

scen~rios= ~nd= distinctive= br~nd= n~mes= were= used= to= m~ke= some=

products= or= inst~nces= more= memor~bäeK= coäkes= found= th~t= these=

judgments= were= bi~sed= in= w~ys= described= by= ~v~iä~biäity= heuristics= –=

th~t= more= memor~bäe= products= infäuenced= the= subjects’= decisionsK=

o~bin= ENVVUF= points= out= th~t= peopäe= often= give= too= much= weight= to=

memor~bäe= evidencesI= even= when= better= sources= of= inform~tion= ~re=

~v~iä~bäeK=ee=notes=th~t=one=m~y=~ääow=~=dr~m~tic=person~ä=story=from=

~=friend=reg~rding=~n=inst~nce=of=product=f~iäure= to=be=more=infäuenti~ä=

th~n=consumer=reports=with=gener~ä=st~tistics=reg~rding=th~t=productK=

OWOWP Anchoring and Adjustment eeuristicsW==

^ccording= to= this= heuristicsI= individu~äs= m~kes= estim~tes= b~sed= on= ~=

st~rting=pointI=the=~nchorI=~nd=upd~te=their=subjective=prob~biäity=b~sed=

on= new= inform~tionK= thiäe= this= does= not= seem= to= differ= from=

represent~tiveness= heuristicsI= psychoäogists= h~ve= shown= th~t=

individu~äs= h~ve= ~= propensity= to= bi~s= their= estim~ted= prob~biäities=

67

tow~rd=the=~nchorK=qh~t=is=individu~äs=do=not=~djust=to=new=inform~tionI=

m~king= the= v~äue= of= the= ~nchor= more= critic~äK= = xgudgment= under=

uncert~intyW=eeuristics=C=_i~ses=by=h~hnem~n=~nd=qversky=NVTVzTK=

^n=individu~ä’s=initi~ä=guess=E~nchorF=c~n=be=subjective=EinterpretedF=or=

objective=Et~ken=from=b~se=r~tesFK=lften=the=~nchor=depends=upon=the=

m~nner=in=which=the=question=is=~sked=or=how=the=inform~tion=is=givenK=

cor= ex~mpäe= qversky= ~nd= h~hnem~n= ENVTQF= ~sked= subjects= to=

estim~te=the=percent~ge=of=^fric~n=countries=in=rnited=k~tions=by= first=

giving=them=~=number=~nd=then=~sking=them=whether=th~t=number=w~s=

higher=or=äower=th~n=the=percent~ge=of=^fric~n=countriesK=aifferent=initi~ä=

v~äues= äed= to=strikingäy=different=estim~tesK=thiäe= the=medi~n=estim~te=

w~s=OR=percent= for=groups= th~t= received=NM=~s= the=st~rting=v~äueI= the=

medi~n= estim~te= w~s= QR= percent= for= those= given= ~= v~äue= of= SR= –=

iääustr~ting=the=bi~s=tow~rd=the=~nchorK==

^nchoring= refers= to= ~= bi~sed= judgment= on= ~= stimuäus= b~sed= on= the=

initi~ä= ~ssessment=of= ~nother= stimuäus= ~nd= the= insufficient=~djustment=

~w~y= from= th~t= initi~ä= ~ssessmentK= mrevious= rese~rch= indic~tes= th~t=

~nchoring= seems= to= be= ~= gener~ä= phenomenon= underäying= ~= wide=

v~riety= of= process= str~tegies= Ebpäey= ~nd= diäovich= OMMNI= qversky= ~nd=

h~hnem~n=NVTQFK=bvery=time=when=~n= individu~ä= forms=~n= impression=

or=~n= im~ge=~bout=~=stimuäus=whiäe=~nother=stimuäus=is=presentI=these=

impressions=m~y=be=subject=to=~nchoring=effectsK=

Consumers= reguä~räy= form=im~ges=~bout=br~nds=~nd=comp~re=br~nds=

to=other=br~ndsK= ft= is=possibäe= th~t= there=wiää=be=~n=~nchoring=effect= in=

68

im~ge= impressions= ~bout= br~nds= –= ~= phenomenon= th~t= is= referred= to=

“br~nd= ~nchoring= effect≤K= qhe= br~nd= ~nchoring= effects= c~n= be=

investig~ted= for= ex~mpäe= in= the= context= of= coJbr~nded= identitiesK= cor=

ex~mpäe= mobiäe= phones= offered= by= pony= brricssonK= ft= is= studied= th~t=

one=br~nd=m~y=serve=~s=~n=~nchor=~nd=~ffect= the= im~ge=structure=of=

the=coJbr~nded=identity=Epony=brricssonF=~s=~=whoäeK=

oese~rch= reve~äs= th~t= subjects= tend= to= focus= onäy= on= ~= p~rt= of= ~=

probäemK= cor= inst~nce= prob~biäity= of= success= ~t= ~ny= one= st~ge= of= ~n=

event= is= often= used= ~s= ~= st~rting= point= E~n= ~nchorF= to= determine= the=

prob~biäity= of= over~ää= successK= eowever= the= ~ssessment= of= the=

prob~biäity= for=~n=event=with=muätipäe=st~ges= is=often=skewed=bec~use=

they=do=not=devi~te=enough=from=the=~nchorK==

oem~rk~bäyI= it= ~ppe~rs= th~t= hum~n= br~in= h~ve= been= h~rd= wired= to=

m~ke=cert~in=errorsK=eundreds=of=different=bi~ses=h~ve=been=identified=

~nd= c~tegorizedI= incäuding= bi~ses= th~t= ~ffect= our= judgmentsI= th~t=

introduce= errors= into= the= estim~tes= ~nd= forec~sts= th~t= consumers=

produceI= ~nd= th~t= c~uses= to= m~ke= wrong= choicesK= qhe= concäusion=

re~ched= by= a~nieä= h~hnem~n= ~nd= his= coääe~gues= is= th~t= peopäe= use=

unconscious= shortcutsI= termed= heuristicsI= to= cope= with= compäex=

decisionsK==

OWOWQ pimulation eeuristics

gust= ~s= ~= singäe= event= th~t= is= e~sy= to= retrieve= in= the= memory= seems=

very= äikeäy=occurI=~=singäe=event=or=sequence=of=events=th~t= is=e~sy=to=

69

im~gine=or=simuä~te=~äso=seems=very= äikeäy= to=occurK=pimpäy= im~gining=

the= occurrence= of= ~= hypothetic~ä= event= incre~ses= the= perceived=

äikeäihood=of=the=eventK==

pimiä~räyI= im~gining= the=occurrence=of=~= compäex=sequence=of=events=

m~kes= this= sequence= of= events= seem= more= äikeäyK= ^n= im~gined=

sequence= of= events= is= ~= scen~rioK= qhe= findings= th~t= ~n= im~gined=

sequence=of=events=seems=more=äikeäy=~re=known=~s=scen~rio=effectK==

OWOWR The mriority eeuristic

qhe=priority=heuristic=is=~=simpäe=~nd=precise=modeä=for=choices=~mong=

risky= options= E_r~ndstätterI= digerenzerI= C= eertwigI= OMMSFUK= then=

m~king=~=choice=between=g~mbäesI=the=priority=heuristic=~ssumes=th~t=

e~ch= g~mbäe= c~n= be= described= by= sever~ä= ~spectsW= its= minimum=

outcomeI=its=m~ximum=outcomeI=~nd=the=prob~biäities=of=e~ch=p~rticuä~r=

outcome= ~ctu~ääy= occurringK= Contr~ry= to= the= expected= utiäity=

perspectiveI=this=heuristic=does=not=~ssume=th~t=peopäe=form=~n=over~ää=

ev~äu~tion= of= g~mbäes= by= weighting= outcomes= ~ccording= to= their=

prob~biäities= of= occurringK= fnste~dI= it= ~ssumes= th~t= ~spects= of= the=

g~mbäes= ~re= comp~red= sequenti~ääyI= ~nd= th~t= e~ch= of= these=

comp~risons=c~n= äe~d= to=~=decisionK=then=m~king=~=choice=between=

two= g~mbäesI= their= “minimum= outcomes≤= ~re= comp~red= firstK= ff= the=

difference= between= two= outcomes= exceeds= NM= B= of= the= m~ximum=

p~yoff=th~t=c~n=be=obt~ined=from=either=of=the=twoI=the=g~mbäe=with=the=

ä~rger= minimum= outcome= is= seäectedK= cor= g~mbäes= with= onäy= positive=

p~yoffsI= the= minimum=outcome= refers= to= the= minimum=g~in= EiK= eKI= the=

70

äowest= p~yoffFK= ff= the= difference= does= not= exceed= the= threshoädI= the=

second=~spect=is=ex~minedW=the=prob~biäities=of=the=minimum=outcomes=

occurringK=ff=the=prob~biäities=differ=by=more=th~n=NM=BI=the=g~mbäe=with=

the= äower=prob~biäity=of= the=minimum=outcome= is=seäectedK=ltherwiseI=

the= ä~st= ~spectµthe= m~ximum= outcomes= of= the= two= g~mbäesµis=

consideredI= ~nd= the= g~mbäe= with= the= ä~rger= m~ximum= outcome= is=

seäectedK= _r~ndstätter= et= ~äK= EOMMSF= comp~red= the= priority= heuristic= to=

sever~ä=v~ri~nts=of=expected=utiäity=theory=on=g~mbäes=from=four=studiesK=

qhe=priority=heuristic=w~s=better=~bäe= to=predict= the=m~jority=choice=of=

p~rticip~nts= for= ~= wide= r~nge= of= g~mbäesK= _r~ndstätter= et= ~äK= EOMMSF=

demonstr~ted=th~t=the=system~tic=study=of=~d~ptive=heuristicsI=such=~s=

the=priority=heuristicI=c~n=provide=~=psychoäogic~ääy=informed=~ätern~tive=

to= the= expected= utiäity= fr~meworkI= which= h~s= been= t~ken= ~s= the=

found~tion=E~nd=goäd=st~nd~rdF=for=much=of=the=work=in=economics=~nd=

the=psychoäogy=of=decision=m~kingK=

h~hnem~n=~nd=qversky=demonstr~ted=th~t=the=use=of=heuristics= äe~ds=

to=poor=decisionsK=eeuristics=äe~d=to=errors=which=~re=termed=~s=bi~sesK==

OWP Biases

_i~ses= ~re= errors= committed= by= the= consumers= due= to= the= use= of=

heuristicsK=_i~ses=resuäts=from=äimit~tions=in=our=~ttention~ä=~nd=memory=

systemsK= Consumers= c~n= rec~ää= onäy= reä~tiveäy= sm~ää= ~mounts= of=

inform~tion=~t=~ny=one=point=of=timeK=rnfortun~teäyI=consumers=c~nnot=

~äw~ys=~ttend=to=or=rec~ää=the=most=di~gnostic=inform~tionK=pome=bi~ses=

~re=described=in=the=next=sectionK=

71

OWPWN Comfort wone Biases or ptatus nuo Biases==

qhis=refers=to=tendency=of=peopäe=to=do=wh~t’s=comfort~bäe=r~ther=th~n=

wh~t’s=import~ntK=meopäe=become=more=~tt~ch=to=the=st~tus=quoI=v~äue=

things=more= highäy= if= they=~äre~dy=own= themK= qhey= ignore= inform~tion=

inconsistent=with= their= current=beäiefsK=meopäe= f~iä= to= äe~rn= ~nd= correct=

their= beäiefs= despite= strong= evidence= th~t= they= shouäd= do= soK= qhe=

individu~äs= keep= doing= the= s~me= thingsI= even= if= they= no= äonger= work=

weääK=qhe= individu~äs=distort= their=views=of= re~äity= in=order= to= feeä=more=

comfort~bäeK= oese~rch= indic~tes= th~t= bre~king= from= st~tus= quoI= is= for=

most= peopäeI= emotion~ääy= uncomfort~bäeK= i~ck= of= uncert~inty= ~nd= too=

m~ny= ~ätern~tives= promote= hoäding= to= the= st~tus= quoK= th~t= c~uses=

st~tus= quo= bi~s?= oese~rch= indic~tes= th~t= the= äoss= ~spects= of= the=

ch~nge=äoom=ä~rger=th~n=the=g~in=~spectsK=iosses=represent=the=cert~in=

eäimin~tion= of= visibäeI= existing= benefitsK= d~ins= in= contr~stI= ~re=

prospective= ~nd= specuä~tiveK= lne= knows= wh~t= he= h~veI= who= knows=

wh~t=he=wiää=get?=

OWPWO merception Biases==

meopäe’s=beäiefs=~re=distorted=by=f~uäty=perceptionsK=qhey=~nchor=on=the=

inform~tion= th~t= is= re~diäy= ~v~iä~bäeI= vivid= or= recentK= qhe= individu~äs=

m~ke= insufficient= ~djustments= from= their= initi~ä= ~nchorsI= ~scribe= more=

credibiäity= to= d~t~= th~n= is= w~rr~ntedI= overestim~te= wh~t= they= knowI=

underestim~te=the=effort=invoäved=to=compäete=~=difficuät=t~skK==

72

OWPWP jotivation Biases=

meopäe’s= motiv~tions= ~nd= incentives= tend= to= bi~s= their= judgmentsK=

meopäe=unconsciousäy=distort=judgments=to=“äook=good≤=~nd=“get=~he~d≤K=

qhey=t~ke=~ctions=~s=if=concerned=onäy=with=short=term=consequencesK=

meopäe=tend=to=~ttribute=good=decisions=to=skiääsI=~nd=b~d=outcomes=to=

others’= f~iäure= or= b~d= äuckK= qhey= tend= to= t~ke= ~ctions= to= shieäd=

themseäves=from=unf~vor~bäe=feedb~ckK=

OWPWQ brrors in oeasoning==

meopäe= use= fä~wed= re~soning= to= re~ch= incorrect= concäusionsK= meopäe=

simpäify= in~ppropri~teäyI= ~re= persu~ded= by= circuä~r= re~soningI= f~äse=

~n~äogies=~nd=other=f~ää~cious=~rgumentsK=fndividu~äs= try=to=~bhor= risk=

but=seek=bigger=risk=to=~void=~=sure=äossK==

droup= qhinkingW= droups= “dive= in≤= without= h~ving= ~ää= the= necess~ry=

inform~tionI=~re=excessiveäy=c~utious=in=sh~ring=d~t~I=~void=expressing=

opposing=viewsI=jump=to=concäusions=prem~tureäy=or=get=bogged=down=

trying= to= re~ch= ~n= ~greementK= xe~mmondI= heeney= ~nd= o~iff~= NVVUK=

e~rv~rd=_usiness=oeviewzNMK=

jost=of=the=timeI=consumers’=purch~sing=decisions=~re=often=b~sed=on=

perceptions= ~nd= predictions= of= product= qu~äityK= qhese= judgments= of=

qu~äity=~re=in=turn=dependent=on=product=~ttributes=~nd=their=reä~tion=to=

the=potenti~ä=utiäity=~=consumer=derives=from=th~t=productK=lne=shouäd=

~gree= th~t= consumers= choose= ~= br~nd= on= the= b~sis= of= underäying=

physic~ä= ~nd= reput~tion~ä= ch~r~cteristics= th~t= determine= the= br~nd’s=

73

v~äueK= ft= is= often= unwieädy= t~sk= for= consumers= to= process= ~ää= the=

~v~iä~bäe= ~ttribute= inform~tionK= qherefore= consumers= reäy= on= simpäe=

decision= m~king= str~tegies= when= ev~äu~ting= ~nd= choosing= ~= productK=

Consumer= m~y= choose= ~= br~nd= by= ev~äu~ting= inform~tion= on= ~= few=

~ttributes=äike=its=priceI=physic~ä=qu~äities=or=the=br~nd=n~meK==

jost=consumers=wouäd=~gree=th~t=it=is=not=the=br~nd=n~me=or=price=th~t=

in= ~nd= of= themseäves= determine= qu~äityK= _ut= it= is= often= puzzäing= th~t=

most= consumers= use= br~nd= ~nd= price= inform~tion= heuristic~ääy= in=

ev~äu~ting=the=products=~nd=bäocks=consumer=~ttention=to=other=qu~äity=

determining=product=ch~r~cteristicsK=^s=~=resuät=consumers=often=f~iä=to=

correctäy= differenti~te= between= products= of= v~rying= qu~äityK= fn= other=

words=such=f~iäure=m~y=h~ve=signific~nt=effect=vi~=the=direct=cost=of=the=

productI= for=ex~mpäeI= p~ying=~= premium=price= for= the=br~nded=goods=

over= identic~ä= generic= productsI= ~nd= indirect= costs= of= the= product= not=

fuääy=s~tisficing=~=consumers=utiäity=expect~tionsI=th~t=isI=~=product=m~y=

not=effectiveäy=m~tch=with=the=consumer=preferencesK=

oese~rch=in=psychoäogy=h~s=demonstr~ted=th~t=individu~äs=often=reäy=on=

heuristics= when= coping= with= even= moder~teäy= äe~rning= t~sksK= lne=

consequence= of= heuristics=b~sed= äe~rning= is= the= phenomenon= known=

~s=~ttention=bäockingW=once=~n=individu~ä=äe~rns=to=~ssoci~te=~=cue=with=

~n= outcomeI= this= ~ssoci~tion= tends= to= bäock= subsequent= ~ttempts= to=

p~ir= new= cues= with= th~t= s~me= outcomeK= bssenti~ääyI= bäocking= ~rises=

from=individu~äs’=reäi~nce=on=“first=impressions≤=r~ther=th~n=eng~ging=in=

the= more= sophistic~ted= äe~rning= str~tegiesK= ff= consumers= initi~ääy=

74

~ssoci~te= ~= p~rticuä~r= br~nd= n~me= with= high= qu~äityI= this= ~ssoci~tion=

m~y= bäock= consumers= from= identifying= the= physic~ä= ch~r~cteristics= of=

competing= products= th~t= ~re= ~äso= indic~tive= of= high= qu~äityK= ^ttention=

bäocking= in= ~= consumer= äe~rning= context= h~s= been= expäored= by=

s~nlsseä~er=~nd=^äb~=in=the=ye~r=OMMMK==

OWQ Bounded oationality

eum~ns=~nd=~nim~äs=must=m~ke=inferences=~bout=unknown=fe~tures=of=

their= woräd= under= constr~ints= of= äimited= timeI= knowäedgeI= ~nd=

comput~tion~ä=c~p~citiesK=lne=shouäd=not=conceive=bounded=r~tion~äity=

~s=optimiz~tion=under=constr~ints=nor=do=one=shouäd=think=of=bounded=

r~tion~äity= ~s= the= study= of= how= peopäe= f~iä= to= meet= norm~tive= ide~äsK=

o~therI= bounded= r~tion~äity= is= the= key= to= underst~nding= how= peopäe=

m~ke= decisions= without= utiäities= ~nd= prob~biäitiesK= _ounded= r~tion~äity=

consists= of= simpäe= stepJbyJstep= ruäes= th~t= function= weää= under= the=

constr~ints=of=äimited=se~rchI=knowäedgeI=~nd=timeµwhether=~n=optim~ä=

procedure=is=~v~iä~bäe=or=notK=gust=~s=~=mech~nic=wiää=puää=out=specific=

wrenchesI= päiersI= ~nd= g~p= g~uges= to= m~int~in= ~n= engine= r~ther= th~n=

just=hit=everything=with=~=h~mmerI=different=dom~ins=of=thought=require=

different=speci~äized=tooäsK=qhe=notion=of=~=tooäbox=fuää=of=unique=singäeJ

function= devices= ä~cks= the= be~uty= of= ieibniz’s= dre~m= of= ~= singäe= ~ääJ

purpose= inferenti~ä= power= tooäK= fnste~dI= it= evokes= the= ~biäities= of= ~=

cr~ftsm~nI= who= c~n= provide= service~bäe= soäutions= to= ~ämost= ~ny=

probäem=with=just=wh~t=is=~t=h~ndK=

75

qhis=repertoire=of=speci~äized=cognitive=mech~nismsI=which=incäude=f~st=

~nd= frug~ä= heuristicsI= were= sh~ped= by= evoäutionI= äe~rningI= ~nd=

cuäture= for= specific= dom~ins= of= inference= ~nd= re~soningK= qhis=

coääection=of=mech~nisms=is=c~ääed=~s=the=“~d~ptive=tooäboxK≤=qhe=

concept=of=~n=~d~ptive=tooäbox=is=cä~rified=~s=foääowsW==

–= ft= refers= to= ~= specific= group= of= ruäes= or= heuristics= r~ther= th~n= to= ~=

gener~äJpurpose=decisionJm~king=~ägorithmK=

–= qhese= heuristics= ~re= f~stI= frug~äI= ~nd= comput~tion~ääy= che~p= r~ther=

th~n=consistentI=coherentI=~nd=gener~äK=

–= qhese= heuristics= ~re= ~d~pted= to= p~rticuä~r= environmentsI= p~st= or=

presentI=physic~ä=or=soci~äK=

–= qhe= heuristics= in= the= ~d~ptive= tooäbox= ~re= orchestr~ted= by= some=

mech~nism= refäecting= the= import~nce= of= confäicting= motiv~tions= ~nd=

go~äsK=

OWR pome heuristics identified in jarketing

qwo=~re~s=of= rese~rch= in=which=m~ny=heuristics=h~ve=been=proposed=

~re=persu~sion=~nd=m~rketingK=vet=m~ny=of=these=proposed=heuristics=

~ppe~r= to= be= dom~in= specific= inst~nti~tions= of= more= dom~inJgener~ä=

principäesK= ConsiderI= for= ex~mpäeI= the= brand name= heuristic=

Ej~hesw~r~nI= j~ckieI= C= Ch~ikenI= NVVOFI= which= st~tes= th~t= peopäe=

more= f~vor~bäy= ev~äu~te= products= with= positiveäy= v~äenced= br~nd=

n~mesI=or=the=country of=origin heuristic=ECh~ngI=OMMQFI=which=st~tes=

th~t= peopäe= wiää= more= f~vor~bäy= ev~äu~te= products= from= positiveäy=

reg~rded= countriesK= qhe= price heuristic= Ejitr~I= NVVRF= suggests= th~t=

76

peopäe= judge= expensive= products= to= be= of= high= qu~äityK= qhe= scarcity

heuristic= Efor= ~= reviewI= see= _r~nnon= C= _rockI= OMMNF= suggests= th~t=

peopäe= judge= r~re=products= to=be= of=high= v~äue=or= qu~äityK=qhe= effort

heuristic=EhrugerI=tirtzI=s~n=_ovenI=C=^äterm~ttI=OMMQF=suggests=th~t=

peopäe=wiää=judge=objects=th~t=took=~=äong=time=to=produce=to=be=of=high=

v~äueK= curthermoreI= the= idiosyncratic fit heuristic= Ehivetz= C=

pimonsonI=OMMPF=suggests= th~t=peopäe=wiää= ev~äu~te=consumer= äoy~äty=

progr~ms= EeKgKI= buy= NM= coffeesI= get= N= freeF= with= person~ääy= reäev~nt=

fe~tures= to=be=more= v~äu~bäeK=qhusI=~äthough= these=heuristics=v~ry= in=

the= specificsI= they= ~ää= ~ppe~r= quite= reä~ted= in= describing= how= cert~in=

cues=~re=used= to=m~ke=positive=ev~äu~tionsK=ptiää= other=overäy=specific=

heuristics=popuä~te=the=persu~sion=äiter~tureK=qhe=audience response

heuristic=E^xsomI=v~tesI=C=Ch~ikenI=NVUTFI=for=ex~mpäeI=st~tes=th~t=~n=

enthusi~stic=~udience=response=EeKgKI=he~rty=~ppä~useF= to=~=mess~ge=

wiää= äe~d= observers= to= positiveäy= reg~rd= or= ~gree= with= ~= mess~geK=

Cäoseäy= reä~ted= to= this= is= the= consensus heuristicI= which= is= ~=

gener~äized= version=of= the=~udience= response= heuristic= EdinerJporoää~=

C= Ch~ikenI= NVVTX= j~hesw~r~n= C= Ch~ikenI= NVVNFK= qhere= is= ~äso= the=

endorsement heuristic= Ecoreh~ndI= d~stiäI= C= pmithI= OMMQFI= which=

suggests=th~t=peopäe=wiää=find=mess~ges=more=convincing=if=~=positiveäy=

reg~rded= org~niz~tion= endorses= themK= qhe= likeability heuristic=

suggests= th~t= peopäe= wiää= be= more= convinced= by= äike~bäe= th~n=

unäike~bäe=spe~kers= ECh~ikenI=NVUMFNNK=curthermoreI=~ccording= to= the=

expertise heuristic= Eo~tneshw~r= C= Ch~ikenI= NVVNFI= peopäe= wiää= be=

more=convinced=by=experts=th~n=novicesK=^s=in=the=m~rketing=äiter~tureI=

77

these=heuristics=v~ry=in=specifics=but=~re=~ää=cäoseäy=reä~ted=by=the=f~ct=

th~t=they=specify=how=peopäe=~re=more=convinced=by=mess~ges=th~t=~re=

~ssoci~ted=with=positiveäy=v~äenced=inform~tion

OWS An bffort oeduction cramework for ptudying

eeuristics

^ccording=to=^nuj=ph~h=~nd=a~nieä=lppenheimerI=heuristic=beh~vior=in=

the= re~äm= of= judgment= ~nd= decision= m~king= necess~riäy= reä~xes= the=

difficuät= requirements=of= the=weighted=~dditive= ruäeK=_y=simpäifying=one=

or= more= of= the= requirements= of= the= weighted= ~dditive= ruäe= ~nd= its=

v~ri~ntsI= heuristics=predict~bäy= reduce= cognitive=effortK= _ec~use= there=

~re= five= effortfuä= components= of= the= weighted= ~dditive= ruäeI= there= ~re=

~äso=five=principäes=for=effortJreductionK=ft=is=proposed=th~t=~ää=heuristics=

reäy=on=one=or=more=of=the=foääowing=methods=for=effortJreductionW==

NK=bx~mining=fewer=cuesK=

OK= oeducing= the= difficuäty= ~ssoci~ted= with= retrieving= ~nd= storing= cue=

v~äuesK=

PK=pimpäifying=the=weighting=principäes=for=cuesK=

QK=fntegr~ting=äess=inform~tionK=

RK=bx~mining=fewer=~ätern~tivesK=

qhe=most=b~sic=effort=reduction=principäes=c~n=be=derived=by=ex~mining=

the=dem~nds=th~t=optim~ä=ruäes=pä~ce=on=decision=m~kersK=lne=wiää=use=

the= weighted= ~dditive= modeä= ~s= the= optim~ä= processing= ruäe= ~g~inst=

78

which= to= comp~re= heuristicsK= pome= m~y= consider= this= ~n= ~rbitr~ry=

st~rting= pointI= ~s= one= c~n= deveäop= sever~ä= optim~ä= ruäes= within= ~nd=

beyond=judgment=~nd=decision=m~kingK=eoweverI=there=is=good=re~son=

to=t~ke=this=ruäe=~s=our=point=of=referenceK=qhe=weighted=~dditive=ruäe=is=

considered=“the= tr~dition~ä=goäd= st~nd~rd= for=r~tion~ä=preferences≤=~nd=

inferences= EdigerenzerI= qoddI= C= the= ^_C= oese~rch= droupI= NVVVI= pK=

OSFNO=~nd=~=prim~ry=route=to=m~ximizing=v~äue=or=utiäity=Efor=~=det~iäed=

discussionI= see= heeney= C= o~iff~I= NVTSFK= curthermoreI= previous=

rese~rch=h~s=shown=th~t=using=this=ruäe=requires=the=most=effort=~nd=is=

the= most= ~ccur~te= of= common= decision= ruäes= Em~yne= et= ~äKI= NVVPFK=

^ddition~ääyI=this=ruäe=c~n=be=~ppäied=to=both=judgment=~nd=choiceK=qhe=

prim~ry= distinction= is= th~tI= in= judgmentI= onäy= the= fin~ä= v~äue= for= ~n=

~ätern~tive=m~ttersI=where~s=in=choiceI=decision=m~kers=must=seäect=the=

~ätern~tive= with= the= best= v~äueK= qhe= heuristics= th~t= peopäe= use= wiää=

reduce=the=cognitive=dem~nds=comp~red=with=this=ruäeK=^äthough=there=

~re=v~ri~nts=of=this=ruäeI=such=~s=the=~dditive=difference=modeä=EqverskyI=

NVSVFI=most=of=the=dem~nds=pä~ced=on=decision=m~kers=~re=the=s~meK=

^t= its=coreI= the=weighted=~dditive=ruäe=describes=how=decision=m~kers=

use= ~nd= integr~te= reäev~nt= inform~tionK= ^nd= the= dem~nds= pä~ced= on=

decision=m~kers=stem=from=how=the=weighted=~dditive=ruäe=specifies=the=

use= of= inform~tionK= lther= compäex= ruäes= th~t= consistentäy= äe~d= to=

optim~ä=choices=must=~äso=use=~nd=integr~te=reäev~nt=inform~tionI=~nd=

they=wiää= therefore=pä~ce=dem~nds=on=decision=m~kers=th~t=~re=simiä~r=

to=the=dem~nds=of=the=weighted=~dditive=ruäeK

79

OWSWN bxamining cewer Cues

qo= reä~x= the= first= dem~nd= of= the= weighted= ~dditive= modeäI= decision=

m~kers= c~n= use= heuristics= th~t= reduce= the= number= of= cues= th~t= ~re=

considered=for=e~ch=~ätern~tiveK=aecision=m~kers=might=focus=on=wh~t=

they= deem= the= most= import~nt= cues= or= on= wh~t= cues= most= v~äidäy=

predict= judgments= ~bout= ~ätern~tivesK= cor= inst~nceI= the= lexicogr~phic=

heuristic= EcishburnI=NVSTI=NVTQFNP= requires=decision=m~kers= to=decide=

which= cue= wiää= be= the= most= import~nt= ~nd= then= seäect= the= ~ätern~tive=

with= the= best= v~äue= on= th~t= cueK= fn= the= c~se= of= ~= tie= on= the= most=

import~nt= cueI= decision= m~kers= se~rch= the= tied= ~ätern~tives= ~g~in=

~ccording=to=the=second=most=import~nt=cueI=~nd=so=on=untiä=choosing=~=

singäe= ~ätern~tiveK= s~ri~nts= of= the= äexicogr~phic= heuristic= incäude= the=

lexicogr~phic=semiJorder=heuristic=EqverskyI=NVSVFI=the=priority=heuristic=

E_r~ndst~¨tterI= digerenzerI= C= eertwigI= OMMSFNQI= the= q~ke= the= Best=

heuristic= Edigerenzer= et= ~äKI= NVVVFI= ~nd= the= single= v~ri~ble= heuristic=

Eeog~rth=C=h~reä~i~I=OMMR~I=OMMTFKNRINS=kote= th~t=even=when=decision=

m~kers= must= se~rch= muätipäe= cues= bec~use= the= first= cue= does= not=

discrimin~te=between=~ätern~tivesI=they=~re=stiää=reducing=effort=bec~use=

they= consider= onäy= one= cue= ~t= ~= timeI= which= reduces= the= ~mount= of=

inform~tion= th~t= must= be= kept= in= working= memoryK= Consider= ~nother=

v~ri~nt= of= the= äexicogr~phic= heuristicI= the= elimin~tion= by= ~spects=

heuristic= EqverskyI=NVTOFK=^ccording= to= this=heuristicI=decision=m~kers=

seäect=~nd=est~bäish=~=cutoff=v~äue=for=the=most=import~nt=cueK=aecision=

m~kers=eäimin~te=~ny=~ätern~tives=th~t=do=not=s~tisfy=the=criterion=v~äue=

80

on=this=cue=~nd=continue=to=choose=cues=in=this=m~nner=untiä=onäy=one=

~ätern~tive=rem~insK=aecision=m~kers=m~y=stiää=h~ve=to=consuät=most=of=

the= cues= ~v~iä~bäe= before= fin~ääy= äimiting= the= outcome= set= to= one=

~ätern~tiveK=eoweverI=by=consuäting=fewer=cues=during=e~ch=comp~rison=

of= ~ätern~tivesI= the= decision= t~sk= becomes= signific~ntäy= e~sierK= ^=

heuristic=might=reduce=the=number=of=cues=used=but=use=more=th~n=one=

cueI= ~s= is= the= c~se= with= the= Clkc= heuristic= Eh~reä~i~I= OMMSFK= qhis=

heuristic= is= simiä~r= to= the= q~ke= the= _est= heuristic= Edigerenzer= et= ~äKI=

NVVVF= but= requires= two= confirming= cues= inste~d= of= just= oneK= qo=

underst~nd=when=decision=m~kers=ex~mine=fewer=cuesI=it=is=necess~ry=

to=expä~in=wh~t=is=me~nt=by=“cue≤=with=respect=to=effortJreductionK=qhe=

tr~dition~ä= definition= of= ~= cue= ~s= ~= piece= of= inform~tion= cert~inäy= stiää=

hoädsX=howeverI=the=question=now=is=~bout=which=cues=~re=~tomic=~nd=

which=c~n=be=divided=into=more=eäement~ä=cuesK=ConsiderI=for=ex~mpäeI=

~ffective= cues= such= ~s= outr~ge= Eh~hnem~n= C= crederickI= OMMOFNTK=

^äthough= there= is= evidence= th~t= outr~ge= is= used= ~s= ~= cue= tow~rd=

judgmentI= the= ~ffective= experience= of= outr~ge= is= itseäf= determined= by=

other=pieces=of=inform~tionI=such=~s=who=w~s=hurt=or=how=much=h~rm=

w~s= doneK= b~ch= of= these= cues= c~n= ~äso= be= broken= down= into= more=

b~sic= pieces= of= inform~tionI= ~nd= this= process= of= dividing= cues= c~n=

continueK= pimiä~räyI= sportsc~sters= ev~äu~ting= pä~yers= often= refer= to=

“~thäeticismK≤= eoweverI= this= c~n= be= broken= down= into= more= b~sic=

eäementsI= such=~s= speedI= strengthI=~nd= heightI= ~ää= of=which= ~re=wh~t=

one=couäd=c~ää=cuesK=

81

cor=the=purposes=of=the=current=fr~meworkI=one=c~n=~dopt=the=notion=of=

n~tur~l=~ssessments=Eqversky=C=h~hnem~nI=NVUPFNUK=^ccording=to=the=

ide~=of=n~tur~ä=~ssessmentsI=b~sic=cues=~re=represent~tions=th~t=resuät=

from= routine= perceptions= ~nd= cognitionsK= cor= ex~mpäeI= ~äthough= ~=

feeäing= of= outr~ge= m~y= resuät= from= numerous= other= pieces= of=

inform~tionI=outr~ge=~nd=~nger=~re=n~tur~ääy=c~äcuä~ted=on=~=d~iäy=b~sis=

~nd=therefore=c~n=be=thought=of=~s=~=b~sic=äeveä=cueK=

lf= courseI= it= is= not= ~äw~ys= seäfJevident= whether= ~= p~rticuä~r= cue= is= ~=

n~tur~ä=~ssessment=or=~n=integr~tion=of=muätipäe=b~sic=cuesK=qhe=pe~kJ

end= heuristic= Eh~hnem~nI= credericksonI= pchreiberI= C= oedeämeierI=

NVVPF= serves= ~s= ~n= ex~mpäe= of= how= the= äine= between= n~tur~ä=

~ssessment= ~nd= cueJintegr~tion= c~n= become= bäurredK= qhis= heuristic=

describes=how=peopäe=m~ke=judgments=~nd=decisions=reg~rding=p~infuä=

~nd= päe~sur~bäe= experiencesK= o~ther= th~n= integr~ting= momentJbyJ

moment=hedonic=experiences=over=timeI=peopäe=~ppe~r=to=~ttend=soäeäy=

to= the= pe~k= experience= of= p~in= ~nd= the= fin~ä= experience= of= p~inK=

gudgments=of=hedonic=experience=cäoseäy=correspond=to=the=~ver~ge=of=

these=two=experiencesK=h~hnem~n=et=~äK=ENVVPF=h~ve=posited=th~t=this=

heuristic=uses=~=singäe=cueI=resuäting=from=~=n~tur~ä=~ssessment=of=the=

~ver~ge=of= the=pe~k=~nd=endK=eoweverI= it= is=not=obvious=whether=this=

heuristic= shouäd= be= thought= of= ~s= using= ~= singäe= cue= Ethe= n~tur~ä=

~ssessment=of=hedonic=experienceF=or= two=cues= Ethe=pe~k=experience=

~nd=the=end=experience=th~t=~re=then=~ver~gedFK=ft=is=worth=noting=th~t=

in= both= c~ses= peopäe= ~re= using= onäy= ~= sm~ää= subset= of= the= ~v~iä~bäe=

82

inform~tion=when=m~king=judgmentsµignoring=~ää=the=inform~tion=~side=

from=the=pe~k=~nd=the=endK==

qhis=suggests=th~t=rese~rchers=need= to=t~ke=gre~t=c~re=when=~rguing=

th~t=~=process= reduces=effort=by=using= fewer=cuesK=cor=ex~mpäeI= one=

wouäd=not=w~nt=to=propose=~=“utiäity=heuristic≤=by=which=peopäe=~re=s~id=

to=onäy=consider=the=singäe=cue=of=tot~ä=utiäity=of=~n=optionI=bec~use=the=

c~äcuä~tion= of= utiäity= is= effortfuä= ~nd= requires= the= use= of= sever~ä= other=

cuesK=konetheäessI=in=m~ny=c~ses=onäy=~=subset=of= the=~v~iä~bäe=cues=

is=~ctu~ääy=usedI=~nd=in=these=c~ses=the=beh~vior=couäd=be=described=~s=

heuristicK=

OWSWO oeducing the aifficulty Associated tith oetrieving

and ptoring Cue salues

aecision= m~kers= c~n= reduce= the= difficuäty= ~ssoci~ted= with= ~ccessing=

cue=v~äues=in=two=w~ysK=qhe=first=form=of=these=processes=dispenses=of=

~ctu~ä=cue=v~äues=~nd=inste~d=stores=the=resuät=of=~=simpäe=comp~rison=

Egre~ter= th~nI= äess= th~nI= equ~ä= toFK= _y= using= ~= simpäified= v~äueI= it=

becomes=e~sier= to=store=~nd=retrieve=cue=v~äuesK=cor=ex~mpäeI=when=

using=the=weighted=pros=heuristic=EeuberI=NVTVFI=decision=m~kers=onäy=

consider=the=inform~tion=pert~ining=to=which=~ätern~tive=is=superior=on=~=

cert~in=cueK=poI=if=decision=m~kers=were=comp~ring=~=jini=Cooper=~nd=

eummer=on=fueä=efficiencyI=they=wouäd=not=ret~in=the=~ctu~ä=difference=

in=miäes=per=g~ääonI=but=they=wouäd= inste~d=store=the=comp~rison=~s=~=

“positive≤= for= the= jini= CooperK= _y= reducing= the= compäexity= of= the=

83

inform~tion=used=during=the=decision=processI=decision=m~kers=expend=

äess=effortK=

qhe= second= form= of= this= effortJreduction= principäe= suggests= th~t=

decision= m~kers= ~ccess= inform~tion= th~t= is= e~sier= to= retrieveI= either=

bec~use= it= is= computed= quickäy= or= h~s= been= m~de= re~diäy= ~v~iä~bäe=

through=other=me~nsK=qhis=type=of=effortJreduction=h~s=~ttr~cted=much=

rese~rch= ~nd= is= ~kin= to= h~hnem~n= ~nd= crederick’s= EOMMOF= ~ttribute=

substitution=theoryK=

qhis=form=of=effortJreduction=not~bäy=incäudes=the=three=m~in=heuristics=

from=the=heuristics=~nd=bi~ses=progr~m=Eqversky=C=h~hnem~nI=NVTPI=

NVTQFW=~v~il~bilityI= represent~tivenessI=~nd=~nchoring=~nd=~djustmentK=

kote= th~t= ~v~iä~biäity= inherentäy= refers= to= reducing= cognitive= effortI= ~s=

decision=m~kers=use=the=e~se=with=which=they=c~n=im~gine=~n=event=~s=

the=b~sis=for=predicting=how=äikeäy=th~t=event=is=to=occur=~g~inK=fn=other=

wordsI= the= ~v~iä~biäity= of= these= ment~ä= im~ges= is= itseäf= ~n= e~siäy=

~ccessibäe= cue= for= the= äikeäihood= of= ~n= eventK= lffshoots= of= the=

~v~iä~biäity= heuristic= incäude= the= fluency= heuristic= Eg~coby= C= a~ää~sI=

NVUNX= jetc~äfe= et= ~äKI= NVVPX= thittäese~= C= ieboeI= OMMPFI= the=

distinctiveness= heuristic= Epch~cter= et= ~äKI= OMMNFI= ~nd= the= recognition=

heuristic=Edigerenzer=et=~äKI=NVVVFK=qhe=represent~tiveness=heuristic=is=

often=used=to=m~ke=judgments=~bout=whether=~=t~rget=object=beäongs=to=

~= given= cä~ssK= ^ccording= to= this= heuristicI= peopäe= m~ke= these=

judgments= by= using= e~syJtoJ~ccess= inform~tion= ~bout= the= degree= to=

which=the=t~rget=object=resembäes=~=prototypic~ä=inst~nce=of= the=cä~ssK=

84

^nchoring= ~nd= ~djustment= simiä~räy= refers= to= using= e~syJtoJ~ccess=

inform~tionK= qhis= heuristic= st~tes= th~t= decision= m~kers= wiää= form=

judgments=by=first=~nchoring=to=~=s~äient=~nd=~ccessibäe=v~äue=~nd=then=

~djusting=their=ev~äu~tions=from=this=v~äueK=

qhe= ~ffect= ~ssoci~ted= with= ~n= ~ätern~tive= ~äso= serves= ~s= ~nother=

prominent=cue=th~t= is=e~sy=to=ev~äu~te=Ecinuc~neI=^äh~k~miI=päovicI=C=

gohnsonI= OMMMX= joninI= OMMPX= jonin= C= lppenheimerI= OMMRX= päovicI=

cinuc~neI= metersI= C= j~cdregorI= OMMOFK= ^ccording= to= ~ffectJb~sed=

heuristicsI=peopäe=often=b~se=judgments=~bout=~n=object=on=emotion~ä=

ev~äu~tions= of= th~t= objectK= qhis= compiäed= feeäing= resuäts= from= the=

neg~tive=~nd=positive=~spects=of=the=objectI=~nd=this=feeäing=is=e~sy=to=

~ccessK=cor= ex~mpäeI= ~ffect= c~n=be=used=~s=~=cue= for= ev~äu~ting= the=

risks=~nd=benefits=of=~=prospect=Epäovic=et=~äKI=OMMOFK=ff=decision=m~kers=

äike=~=prospectI= then=when= they=~re=~sked= to=determine= the=risks=~nd=

benefits=of=the=prospect=they=judge=the=risks=to=be=äow=~nd=the=benefits=

to=be=highX= the=opposite=p~ttern=occurs=when=decision=m~kers=do=not=

äike=~=prospectK=pimiä~räyI=the=outr~ge=heuristic=Eh~hnem~n=C=crederickI=

OMMOF=st~tes=th~t=peopäe=consider=the=outr~geousness=of=crimes=when=

determining= retribution= ~nd= punishmentK= ^ccording= to= this= heuristicI=

peopäe=might=w~nt=to=punish=robbery=of=~=chiäd=more=th~n=the=robbery=

of=~n=~duätI=even=if=the=crimes=were=äeg~ääy=indistinguish~bäeK==

bvidence=for=the=use=of=e~syJtoJ~ccess=cues=~äso=~ppe~rs=in=~=number=

of= dom~inJspecific= heuristics= th~t= reäy= on= dom~inJb~sed= f~ciäit~tion= of=

retriev~äK=cor=ex~mpäeI=it=is=typic~ääy=~ssumed=th~t=heuristic=processing=

85

of=~rguments=reäies=on=cues=th~t=~re=~ssoci~ted=with=mess~ge=v~äidity=

EseeI= eKgKI= j~hesw~r~n= C= Ch~ikenI= NVVNX= o~tneshw~r= C= Ch~ikenI=

NVVNFONK=^s=these=cues=become=~ssoci~ted=with=highJqu~äity=mess~gesI=

the=t~sk=of= judging=mess~ge=qu~äity=might=prime=the=~ssoci~ted=cuesK=

qhereforeI=when=judging=mess~ge=v~äidity= it=m~y=be=e~sier=to= retrieve=

or=~ccess=such=~ssoci~ted=cuesI=~nd=using= these=cues=wouäd= reduce=

the= effort= reä~ted= to= retrieving= more= difficuätJtoJ~ccess= cuesI= such= ~s=

~rgument=qu~äityK=

OWSWP pimplifying the teighting mrinciples for Cues

then= simpäifying= weighting= principäesI= decision= m~kers= might= use=

heuristics= th~t= ignore=cueJv~äidity= inform~tionI=or= the=predictive=qu~äity=

of= e~ch= cueK= qypic~ääyI= more= v~äid= cues= ~re= weighted= more= he~viäyX=

howeverI= by= using= nonv~äidity= b~sed= cue= seäectionI= decision= m~kers=

inherentäy=simpäify= cue=weighting=principäes=bec~use= they=do=not=h~ve=

to= judge= the= predictive= ~ccur~cy= of= e~ch= cue= Efor= ~= discussionI= see=

ph~h= C= lppenheimerI= OMMTFK= cor= ex~mpäeI= the= equ~l= weightingI= or=

t~llyingI=heuristic=Ea~wesI=NVTVX=m~yne=et=~äKI=NVVPF=is=virtu~ääy=identic~ä=

to=the=weighted=~dditive=modeäI=except=th~t=it=gives=e~ch=cue=~n=equ~ä=

weightK= qhe= m~jority= of= confirming= dimensions= heuristic= Eousso= C=

aosherI= NVUPF= simiä~räy= ~ppäies= equ~ä= weights= to= every= cue= v~äueK=

^ccording= to= this=heuristicI=decision=m~kers= comp~re= two=~ätern~tives=

~t=~=timeI=~nd=they=ret~in=the=~ätern~tive=th~t=is=superior=on=the=m~jority=

of= cuesX= no= one= cue= is= weighted= more= he~viäy= th~n= ~notherK=

curthermoreI= digerenzer= et= ~äK= ENVVVF= h~ve= posited= the= jinim~list=

86

heuristicI= in= which= decision= m~kers= wiää= r~ndomäy= choose= ~= cue= untiä=

they= find= one= th~t= discrimin~tes= between= ~ätern~tivesK= ^ddition~ääyI=

there= is= the= q~ke= the= i~st= heuristic= Edigerenzer= et= ~äKI= NVVVFI= which=

suggests= th~t= decision= m~kers= use= the= cue= th~t= h~s= most= recentäy=

discrimin~ted= between= ~ätern~tivesK= tithout= h~ving= to= decide= on=

different=weights=for=e~ch=cueI=decision=m~kers=reduce=cognitive=effortK

OWSWQ fntegrating iess fnformation

then= decision= m~kers= reduce= effort= by= integr~ting= äess= inform~tion=

~cross=muätipäe=~ttributesI=they=often=do=not=form=~n=over~ää=impression=

of=~n=~ätern~tive=Em~yne=et=~äKI=NVVPFK=qhe=heuristic=for=choice=th~t=best=

exempäifies= the=use=of= this=principäe=is=the=s~tisficing=heuristic= EpimonI=

NVRRI=NVRSI=NVVMFK=^äthough=this=heuristic=uses=numerous=cuesI=it=does=

not= integr~te= the= inform~tion= from=~ää= of= these=cues= to= form=~n=over~ää=

impression= of= ~n= ~ätern~tive’s= utiäityK= qo= m~ke= ~= choiceI= decision=

m~kers= set= cutoff= äeveäs= for= e~ch= cue= ~nd= then= seäect= the= first=

~ätern~tive=in=their=se~rch=th~t=surp~sses=their=cutoff=for=e~ch=cueK=qh~t=

isI=the=chosen=~ätern~tive=is=simpäy=“good=enoughI≤=but=its=over~ää=utiäity=

is= not= ~ssessedK= pimiä~räyI= the= domr~n= heuristic= Eeog~rth= C= h~reä~i~I=

OMMRbF= does= not= require= decision= m~kers= to= integr~te= inform~tion=

~cross=muätipäe=cuesK=qhe=domr~n=heuristic=eäimin~tes=~ätern~tives=th~t=

~re=domin~ted=by=~t= äe~st=one=other=~ätern~tiveK=_ec~use=e~ch=cue=is=

ev~äu~ted= independentäyI= there= is= no= need= to= integr~te= inform~tion=

~cross=cues=or=to=form=~n=over~ää=impression=of=~n=~ätern~tive=before=it=

is= eäimin~tedK= fndeedI= ~ää= noncompens~tory= heuristics= EiKeKI= heuristics=

87

th~t=do=not=m~ke=tr~deJoffs=between=cuesF=reduce=effort=by=integr~ting=

äess=inform~tion=or=even=by=not=integr~ting=inform~tion=~t=~ääK=

lf=courseI=when=~=heuristic=uses=onäy=one=cueI=decision=m~kers=~void=

integr~ting= muätipäe= pieces= of= inform~tion= ~s= ~= necess~ry= sideJeffectK=

eeuristics=th~t=use=onäy=one=cue=incäude=the=q~ke=the=_est=Edigerenzer=

et= ~äKI= NVVVFI= the= äexicogr~phic= EcishburnI= NVSTI= NVTQF= ~nd= the=

eäimin~tion=by=~spects=EqverskyI=NVTOF=heuristicsK=^äthough=these=oneJ

cue= heuristics= might= m~ke= it= seem= ~s= though= ex~mining= fewer= cues=

~nd= integr~ting= äess= inform~tion= ~re= identic~ä=w~ys= of= reducing= effortI=

heuristics= such= ~s= s~tisficing= show= how= these= principäes= ~re=

discrimin~bäeK= qhese= oneJcue= heuristics= therefore= represent= onäy= ~=

subset=of=heuristics=th~t=integr~te=äess=inform~tionK=

qhis= principäe= m~y= ~äso= heäp= expä~in= effortJreduction= underäying=

response=mode=comp~tibiäity=effects=Eiichtenstein=C=päovicI=NVTNFK=cor=

ex~mpäeI=consider=~=choice=between=two=äotteriesW=lne=äottery=offers=~=

high=p~yoff=but=with=~=äow=prob~biäity=of=winningX=the=other=äottery=offers=

~= high= prob~biäity= of= winning= but= with= ~= äow= p~yoffK= then= presented=

with=these=g~mbäesI=p~rticip~nts’=preferences=wiää=depend=on=how=they=

~re=~sked=to=indic~te=such=preferK=then=~sked=to=chooseI=p~rticip~nts=

wiää= more= often= choose= the= highJprob~biäity= g~mbäeK= eoweverI= when=

~sked=to=bid=on=e~ch=g~mbäeI=p~rticip~nts=wiää=often=offer=~=higher=price=

for=the=high=p~yoff=g~mbäe=Eindic~ting=gre~ter=preferenceFK=ft=seems=th~t=

in=the=c~se=of=choiceI=it=is=e~sier=to=~nchor=the=preference=on=prob~biäity=

of=winningK=eoweverI= in= the=c~se=of=pricingI= it= is=e~sier= to=~nchor= the=

88

preference=on= the=p~yoffsK=qh~t= isI= r~ther= th~n= integr~ting= the=p~yoffs=

~nd= prob~biäitiesI= p~rticip~nts= prim~riäy= use= the= inform~tion= th~t=

requires= the= äe~st= ment~ä= tr~nsform~tion= to= ~nswer= the= experiment~ä=

questionK=^s=it=m~y=be=more=effortfuä=to=integr~te=~cross=mod~äities=th~n=

within= mod~äitiesI= p~rticip~nts= reduce= effort= by= integr~ting= äess=

inform~tion=~cross=mod~äitiesK=

OWSWR bxamining cewer Alternatives

eeuristics= th~t=ex~mine=or=comp~re= fewer=~ätern~tives=~re=p~rticuä~räy=

suited= for= reducing= the= effort= ~ssoci~ted= with= m~king= choicesK=

eeuristics=of= this= type=c~n=work= in= three=w~ysK=cirstI=decision=m~kers=

c~n= use= heuristics= th~t= äimit= the= number= of= ~ätern~tives= th~t= ~re=

comp~red=simuät~neousäyK=cor=ex~mpäeI=the=~forementioned=m~jority=of=

confirming=dimensions=heuristic=Eousso=C=aosherI=VUPF=m~kes=use=of=

p~ir=wise=comp~risonsI=where=~n=~ätern~tive=from=e~ch=p~ir=is=ret~ined=

untiä= onäy=one=~ätern~tive= rem~insK=m~ir=wise=comp~risons=signific~ntäy=

reduce=the=number=of=~ätern~tives=th~t=must=be=kept=in=working=memory=

~t=onceI=which=reduces=the=dem~nd=on=cognitive=resourcesK=m~ir=wise=

comp~risons=underäie=other=heuristicsI=such=~s=the=elimin~tion=by=le~st=

~ttr~ctive= ~spect= heuristicµwhich= removes= the= ~ätern~tive= with= the=

äowest= over~ää= cue= v~äueµ~nd= the= choice= by= most= ~ttr~ctive= ~spect=

heuristicµ= which= ret~ins= the= ~ätern~tive= with= the= highest= over~ää= cue=

v~äue=EpvensonI=NVTVFK=

89

pecondI=heuristics=of= this=type=might= reduce=effort=by=gr~du~ääy=p~ring=

down= the= number= of= ~ätern~tives= in= the= setK= cor= ex~mpäeI= qversky’s=

ENVTOF= eäimin~tion= by= ~spects= heuristic= ~nd= other= äexicogr~phic=

heuristics= initi~ääy= incäude=~ää= ~ätern~tives=but= ruäe= out= ~ätern~tives= th~t=

f~ää=beäow=~=minimum=threshoäd=for=~=p~rticuä~r=cueK=^s=more=cues=~re=

ev~äu~tedI=fewer=~ätern~tives=wiää=rem~in=in=the=set=of=~v~iä~bäe=optionsK=

_ec~use= the= cues= of= onäy= ~= äimited= number= of= ~ätern~tives= ~re=

thoroughäy=se~rchedI=these=processes=wiää=reduce=effort=comp~red=with=

~=process=th~t=ex~mines=~ää=cues=for=~ää=~ätern~tivesK=

eeuristics= th~t=ex~mine= fewer=~ätern~tives=might=~äso= reduce=effort=by=

immedi~teäy= eäimin~ting= some= ~ätern~tives= from= the= over~ää= set= of=

~v~iä~bäe=~ätern~tivesK=puppose=you=~re=se~rching=for=~=new=ceää=phone=

providerI= for=ex~mpäeK= ^äthough=you=might= know=of= m~ny=comp~niesI=

you=might=just=consider=the=first=two=providers=th~t=come=to=mindK=fn=this=

w~yI= other= providers= h~ve= quickäy= been= eäimin~ted= from= the= decision=

setK= lnce= you= h~ve= n~rrowed= your= decision= setI= you= m~y= w~nt= to=

consider= other= cuesI= such= ~s= cover~ge= ~re~I= number= of= c~ääing=

minutesI=priceI=~nd=so=forthK=

qhis=ch~pter=expä~ins=the=use=of=heuristics=by=individu~äsLconsumers=in=

their= decision= m~king= processesK= rse= of= heuristics= c~n= be= good= ~t=

times=~s=they=simpäify=compäex=~ägorithms=in=decision=m~king=processK=

eum~n= memory= ~äso= h~s= äimit~tions= to= conduct= cognitive= processes=

such=~s=processing=the=d~t~I=which=compeäs=the=individu~äs=to=resort=to=

heuristicsK==

VM

Ch~pter=P=

iiter~ture=oeview=m~rt=J=ff=

_r~nd=Choice=jodeäs=

PWN===fntroduction=

PWO===aom~in=of=Choice=oese~rch=

PWP===mrogress=

PWQ===i~tent=s~ri~bäes=

PWR===Combining=oeve~äed=C=pt~ted=mreferences=

PWS===_~yesi~n=mrocedure=

PWT===_eh~vior~ä=ayn~mics=C=fnter~ction=

PWU===a~t~=fmput~tion=

PWV===aiscrete=C=Continuous=jodeäs=

PWNM=poftw~re=

PWNN=Ch~ääenges=

PWNO=jodeä=cormuä~tion=C=bstim~tion=

PWNP=Ch~ääenges=

PWNQ=oese~rch=d~p=

=

=

=

VN

Ch~pter=P=

iiter~ture=oeview=m~rt=J=ff=

_r~nd=Choice=jodeäs=

PWN fntroduction

qhe= ~ppro~ch= in= this= study= is= to= ~ddress= heuristics= in= the= choice=

processK=qo=do=thisI=review=of=the=reäev~nt=äiter~ture=on=choice=modeäs=

is=done=in=three=~re~sK=

NK= o~ndom= rtiäity= jodeäs= EorjF= –= qhe= existing= prob~biäistic=

modeäs=~re=reviewedK=

OK= msychometric= jodeäing= –= qo= oper~tion~äize= ~nd= qu~ntify=

unobserv~bäe= concepts= such= ~s= soci~ä= cä~ssI= pubäic= opinionI=

person~äityI=inteääigence=etcKI=psychometrici~ns=h~ve=pioneered=~=

cä~ss=of=modeäs=c~ääed=~s=the=ä~tent=structure=modeäsK=

PK= eeterogeneity=in=Choice=mrocesses=J=qhese=modeäs=c~ptures=the=

heterogeneity=in=the=choice=processesK=

PWNWN oandom rtility jodels EorjF

bxtensive= discussions= of= the= m~croJeconomic= ~nd= psychoäogic~ä=

underpinnings=of=the=r~ndom=utiäity=modeäs=c~n=be=found=in=jc=c~dden=

ENVTPFI= j~nski= ENVTTF= ~nd= ierm~n= ENVUTFK= qhe= modeä= is= b~sed= on=

notion= th~t= consumers= derive= utiäity= by= buying= or= choosing= ~n=

~ätern~tive= ~nd= the= consumer= is= postuä~ted= to= pick= th~t= ~ätern~tive=

which=m~ximizes=hisLher=utiäityK=pince=the=utiäities=~re=not=known=to=the=

rese~rchersL~n~äystsI= they= ~re= termed= ~s= r~ndom= v~ri~bäesK= jore=

VO

specific~ääy= the= r~ndom= utiäity= of= ~n= ~ätern~tive= Ebr~ndF= c~n= be=

expressed=~s=~=sum=of=observ~bäe=~nd=unobserv~bäe=components=~s==

rin=Z=sin=H=εin=for=~ää=i=є=Cn==

rin== Z=r~ndom=utiäity=of=~ätern~tive=i=for=consumer=nX=

sin== Z=system~tic=component=of=utiäityX=

Cn= = Z=choice=set=~v~iä~bäe=to=consumer=nX=

εin= Z=r~ndom=component=of=utiäity=

the=system~tic=component=is=given=by=

sin=Z=sEuinI=βFK=

there=uin= = Z=~ttributes=of=~ätern~tive=i=~nd=ch~r~cteristics=of=

===Consumer=n=

Β= = Z=p~r~meter=vector=

curther=under=m~ximum=utiäity=decision=ruäeI=the=event=th~t=~ätern~tive=i=

is=chosen=is=äinked=to=the=r~ndom=utiäities=~s==

{i=chosen}= = = = = Erin ≥=rjnI=for=~ää=jF=

Consequentäy=the=prob~biäity=th~t=~n=~ätern~tive=i=is=chosen=by=~=

consumer=n=is=given=~s==

mEi=chosenF=Z=mErin ≥=rjnI=for=~ää=jF=

^=cä~ss=of=prob~biäistic=choice=modeä=c~n=be=constructed=by=~ppropri~te=

specific~tions= of= the= joint= prob~biäity= density= of= EεNnI =εOnI= … =εjnFK= cor=

ex~mpäe= if= it= is= ~ssumed= th~t= εin= ~re= iKiKd= dumbeä= ~cross= ~ätern~tives=

~nd=consumers=with=~=sc~äe=p~r~meter=set=to=N~nd=äoc~tion=p~r~meter=

set= to= MI= one= c~n= obt~in= the= choice= prob~biäity= in= ~= cäosed= form=

expression=referred= to=~s=juätinomi~ä=iogit=jodeä= referred= to=~s=jki=

with==

VP

=

==========expEsinF=mEyin=ZN|=unX=βF=Z==

= = = = = ==================Σ===expEsjnF = == = = = = = ======jєCn=

there==

= N=if=~ätern~tive=i=is=chosen=by=the=individu~ä=

yin==Z=

= M=otherwise=

un=Z={uin=for=~ää=i=є=Cn}=

curther= if= the=system~tic= utiäity= function=sEKF= is=~= äine~r= function=of= the=

p~r~metersI= modeä= äikeäihood= estim~tion= of= the= modeä= p~r~meters= is=

e~sy=through=the=gr~dient=methods=due=to=the=gäob~ä=conc~tivity=of=the=

äog= äikeäihood= function= m~king= the= jki= the= most= wideäy= used=

prob~biäistic=choice=modeäK=

lne= of= the= import~nt= properties= of= the= jki= modeä= is= termed= the=

“independence= of= irreäev~nt= ~ätern~tives≤= Eff^F= in= th~t= for= ~= specific=

consumer= the= r~tio= of= choice= prob~biäities= of= ~ny= two= ~ätern~tives= is=

entireäy= un~ffected= by= the= system~tic= utiäities= of= ~ny= other= ~ätern~tiveK=

^n=import~nt=m~nifest~tion=of=this=property=is=th~t==

PWNWO msychometric jodeling

fn=recent=ye~rsI=there=h~ve=been=~ttempts=to=shift=the=focus=to=~=more=

beh~vior~ääy= rich= p~r~digm= of= choice= modeäingK= qhe= m~in= fe~tures= of=

this=new=p~r~digm=~reW=

NK= bxpäicit= tre~tment= of= the= psychoäogic~ä= f~ctors= th~t= ~ffect= the=

decision=m~king=process=

VQ

OK= a~t~= sources= other= th~n= reve~äed= preferences= d~t~= such= ~s=

st~ted= preferences= c~n= be= effectiveäy= utiäized= in= the= modeä=

deveäopmentK=

_en= ^kiv~= ~nd= _occ~r~= ENVUTF= used= four= types= of= psychoäogic~ä=

f~ctorsW=

NK= ^ttitudesI=needs=~nd=beäiefs=

OK= merceptions= =

PK= mreferences= =

QK= _eh~vior~ä=intentions=

_eh~vior~ä=intentions=~re=m~nifested=through=st~ted=preferences=d~t~K=

cor= ex~mpäe= ~= popuä~r= method= for= me~suring= preferences= in= m~rket=

rese~rch=studies=is=conjoint=~n~äysisK=fn=conjoint=~n~äysis=respondents=

~re= presented= with= descriptions= of= sever~ä= hypothetic~ä= ~ätern~tivesI=

e~ch= of= which= h~ve= different= ~ttributesK= qhe= respondents= wouäd= be=

~sked= to= indic~te= hisLher= reä~tive= preference= tow~rd= e~ch= of= the=

~ätern~tivesK=qhe=responses=~re=used=to=infer=~bout=the=impäicit=weights=

respondents=m~y=use=on=e~ch=of=the=~ttributes=whiäe=expressing=their=

preferencesK= o~ndom= utiäity= modeäs= h~ve= been= ~ppäied= to= st~ted=

preferences=d~t~=to=modeä=individu~ä=choice=beh~viorK=

PWNWP jodeling heterogeneity

qhe= signific~nce= of= heterogeneityI= especi~ääy= the= v~ri~tions= in=

individu~ä’s=sensitivity= to= ~ttributes=of= ~ätern~tivesI= in= choice= processI=

~nd= th~t= choice= is= ~ffected= by= = individu~ä’s= ~ttitude= tow~rds= ~nd=

perception=~bout=~ätern~tives=~nd=their=~ttributesI=is=recognized=by=the=

rese~rchersK=curther=consumers=m~y=~dopt=different=decisionsJm~king=

VR

protocoäs=~s=weää=~s=differ=in=the=utiäity=derived=from=nomin~ääy=identic~ä=

~ätern~tivesK= ft= must= be= noted= th~t= such= v~ri~tions= ~re= different= from=

observed= v~ri~tions= such= ~s= incäusion= of= socioJeconomic= ~nd=

demogr~phic=ch~r~cteristics=in=tr~dition~ä=choice=modeäsK=oese~rchers=

~re=nowJ~Jd~ys=~ttempting= to=modeä= this=heterogeneity=of= the=choice=

process=th~t=stems=from=v~ri~tions=in=the=consumers’=ch~r~cteristicsK=

PWO aomain of Choice oesearch

aomain of Choice oesearch

cig PWN

=

j~ny= discipäines= ~re= interested= in= the= choice= processI= incäuding=

economistsI=engineersI=psychoäogistsI=m~rketersI=~nd=pä~nnersK=cigure=

PWN=iääustr~tes=the=dom~in=of=choice=rese~rchK=mredictive=choice=modeäs=

emph~size= the= reguä~rities= of= choice= beh~vior= in= qu~ntit~tive= modeäs=

th~t=c~n=be=used=for=prediction=in=the=discipäines=äisted=~boveK=qhis=view=

emph~sizes= the= system~ticI= inv~ri~nt= fe~tures=of=choice=beh~vior= th~t=

c~n= be= used= for= forec~stingK= ln= the= other= h~ndI= beh~vior~ä= choice=

~n~äysis=deconstructs=the=choice=process=by=concentr~ting=on=reve~äing=

irreguä~rities= ~nd= idiosyncr~tic= fe~tures=of= choice=beh~viorK= qhe= views=

VS

~re= differentI= prim~riäy= due= to= the= differences= in= rese~rch= objectivesI=

prediction= EeconomicsI= m~rketingI= pä~nning= ~nd= engineeringF= versus=

deconstruction= EpsychoäogyFK= eoweverI= strong= crossJfertiäiz~tion= h~s=

occurred=~mong=these=fieädsK==

tithin= the= dom~in= of= predictive= choice= modeäs= is= the= r~ndom= utiäity=

modeä=EorjFI=~=powerfuä=tooä=for=~pproxim~ting=the=system~tic=~spects=

of= choice= beh~viorK= qhere= is= incompäete= overä~p= between= beh~vior~ä=

~nd= predictive= ~ppro~ches= to= ~n~äyzing= choiceI= ~nd= there= ~re= good=

re~sons=for=pursuing=e~ch=in=p~r~ääeä=without=necess~riäy=trying=to=force=

integr~tionK= eoweverI= e~ch= ende~vor= c~n= benefit= from= the= other’s=

resuätsI=~nd=the=end=go~ä=is=~n=integr~ted=tre~tment=of=choice=beh~vior=

th~t= incorpor~tes= the= inv~ri~nt=eäements=obt~ined=by=deconstructionist=

study= of= choice= processes= ~nd= is= predictive= for= pr~ctic~ä= ~ppäic~tionsK=

^n= import~nt= objective= of= the= rese~rch= efforts= presented= here= is= to=

deveäop= pr~ctic~ä= modeäs= th~t= go= beyond= the= orj= modeä= in= its=

n~rrowest= formuä~tion= ~nd= incorpor~te= eäements= of= cognitive= process=

th~t=h~ve=been=identified=~s=import~ntK=qhis=view=b~sed=on=~=beh~vior~ä=

~ppro~ch=is=summ~rized=in=cigure=PWOK=fn=the=p~stI=the=soäid=~rrows=in=

this= figure= were= mostäy= ex~minedX= now= the= d~shed= ~rrows= h~ve=

growing=import~nceK=

qhe=exp~nded=beh~vior~ä=fr~mework=emph~sizes=th~tW=

|= Choice= is= governed= by= perceptionsI= inform~tion= processing= ~nd=

cognitive=processesK=

|=eistory=m~ttersI= for= ex~mpäeI= infäuencing=context= Emotiv~tionI=~ffectI=

etcKFI=st~tus=quoI=~nd=st~te=dependenceK=

VT

|=eeterogeneity=~cross=decisionJm~kers=due=to=different=~ttitudes=~nd=

perceptions=is=import~ntK=

|=qhere=~re=import~nt=ä~tent=constructs=Esuch=~s=perceptions=~nd=ä~tent=

cä~ssesF= th~t= ~re= infäuenced= by= psychoäogic~ä= f~ctors= ~nd= extern~ä=

constr~intsK=

PWOWO eybrid Choice jodels

eybrid= Choice= jodeä= EeCjF= is= ~n= integr~ted= tre~tment= of= choice=

beh~vior= th~t= incorpor~tes= the= inv~ri~nt= eäements= obt~ined= by=

deconstructionist= study= of= choice= processes= ~nd= is= predictive= for=

pr~ctic~ä= ~ppäic~tionsK= ^n= import~nt= objective= of= the= rese~rch= efforts=

presented= in= this= study= is= to=deveäop=pr~ctic~ä=modeäs= th~t=go=beyond=

the=orj=modeä= in= its=n~rrowest=formuä~tion=~nd=incorpor~te=eäements=

of=cognitive=process=th~t=h~ve=been=identified=~s=import~ntK==

qhe= objective= is= to= expäicitäy= modeä= the= choice= beh~vior= reä~tionships=

depicted= in= cigure= PWOK= qo= do= thisI= ~n= exp~nded= discrete= choice=

fr~mework=is=proposedI=termed=the=hybrid=choice=modeä=EeCjFI=which=

integr~tes= m~ny= types= of= discrete= choice= modeäing= methodsK= qhe=

fr~mework=for=the=eCj=is=shown=in=cigure=PWPK=qhe=tr~dition~ä=orj=is=

shown= on= the= vertic~ä= ~xis= of= this= figureW= observ~bäe= expä~n~tory=

v~ri~bäes=Eincäuding=ch~r~cteristics=of=the=decisionK=

VU

=

=

Choice Behavior Epource - jccadden OMMNF

cigK PWO

=

=

=

=

=

fn=such=tr~dition~ä=qu~ntit~tive=choice=modeäsI=the=emph~sis=h~s=been=

on= the= system~ticI= inv~ri~nt= ~spects= of= choice= beh~viorI= which= ~re=

~ssumed=to==

eybrid Choice jodel Epource tlaker and Ben AkivaOMMNF

cigKPWP

m~ker=~nd=~ttributes=of=the=~ätern~tivesF=domin~te=the=choice=processK=

oese~rchers=h~ve=äong=been=focused=on=improving=the=specific~tion=of=

the= tr~dition~ä= orjI= ~nd= numerous= enh~ncements= h~ve= been=

deveäoped= th~t= ~id= in= predicting= re~äiz~tions= of= the= choice= beh~vior=

depicted=in=cigure=PK=qhese=methods=~re=integr~ted=in=the=gener~ä=eCj=

VV

by= reä~xing= the= b~sic= orj= coreI= such= ~s= incorpor~ting= nonJorj=

decision= protocoäsI= in= ~n= effort= to= reä~x= simpäifying= ~ssumptions= ~nd=

enrich=underäying=beh~vior~ä=ch~r~cteriz~tionsK=qhe=extensions=incäudeW=

·= qhe= ~ddition= of= fäexibäe= disturb~nces= EeKgKI= f~ctor= ~n~äyticF= to=

mimic= ~ny= desir~bäe= error= structures= Esuch= ~s= reä~xing= the= ff^=

structure=of=äogit=or=specifying=r~ndom=p~r~metersFK=

·= qhe= expäicit= modeäing= of= ä~tent= psychoäogic~ä= f~ctors= such= ~s=

~ttitudes=~nd=perceptions= Eä~tent= v~ri~bäesFK=qh~t= isI= combining=

‘‘h~rd= inform~tion’’= Esuch= ~s= re~son~bäy= weää= me~sured= socioJ

economic= ch~r~cteristicsF= with= ‘‘soft= inform~tion’’= on= popuä~tion=

heterogeneity= Esuch= ~s= indic~tors= for= psychoäogic~ä=

ch~r~cteristics= th~t= ~re= difficuät= to= me~sureI= for= ex~mpäeI= risk=

~ttitudesI= imp~tienceI= ~nd= seäf= controäF= in= discrete= choice=

modeäsK= qhe= ~im= is= to= ‘expä~in’’= seemingäy= irr~tion~ä= beh~viorI=

th~t= isI= modeä= structur~ääy= using= economic= ~nd= psychoäogic~ä=

d~t~I= ~= subst~nti~ä= p~rt= of= the= unobserved= heterogeneityK= qhe=

incäusion= of= ä~tent= segment~tion= of= the= popuä~tion= Eä~tent=

cä~ssesFI= which=~ääows= for= different= decision=protocoäs= incäuding=

nonJorjI=m~rket=segment~tionI=~nd=choice=set=formuä~tionK==

·= qhe= incäusion= of= ä~tent= segment~tion= of= the= popuä~tion= Eä~tent=

cä~ssesFI= which=~ääows= for= different= decision=protocoäs= incäuding=

nonJorjI=m~rket=segment~tionI=~nd=choice=set=formuä~tionK=

ft= is=often=difficuät= to=estim~te=such=~=modeä=with= reve~äed=preferences=

Eth~t= isI= m~rket= beh~viorF= ~äoneI= ~nd= therefore= other= indic~tors= ~re=

incorpor~ted= into= the= fr~mework= to=~id= in=estim~tion=of= the=beh~vior~ä=

NMM

reä~tionshipsK= qhese= ~ddition~ä= indic~tors= incäude= st~ted= preferences=

~nd= psychometric= me~surements= EeKgKI= survey= questions= reg~rding=

~ttitudes=~nd=perceptionsFK=

kote= th~t= the= eCj= does= not= require= the= ~ssumption= of= orj= since=

eCj= c~n= ~ääow= for= the= incorpor~tion= of= nonJorj= decision= protocoäsI=

~nd =orjJb~sed =eCj =is =~ =restricted =form =of =~ =gener~ä =eCjK =ff =the =

modeä=of= interest= is=not=orjI=then=the=utiäity=modeä=c~n=be=used=~s=~=

p~r~morphic=represent~tion=of=nonJorj=beh~viorI=with=the=~dv~nt~ge=

of=inference=through=the=use=of=~=st~tistic~ä=modeäK=

PWP mrogress

^=more=äimited=version=of=the=~bove=eCj=fr~mework=w~s=considered=~t=

the= previous= Choice= pymposiumX= see= _enJ^kiv~= et= ~äK= ENVVVFK= jore=

recentäyI= t~äker= ~nd= _enJ^kiv~= EOMMNFOO= demonstr~ted= the= extended=

eCj= fr~meworkK= qhey= estim~ted= tr~veä= mode= choice= modeäs= using=

reve~äed=~nd=st~ted=preference=d~t~I=ä~tent=perceptions=of=comfort=~nd=

convenienceI= ~nd= t~ste= heterogeneity= in= the= form= of= r~ndom=

p~r~meters=~nd=ä~tent=cä~ss=segment~tionK=bstim~tion=of=the=eCj=w~s=

shown= to= be= pr~ctic~äI= ~nd= the= resuäting= modeä= incorpor~ted= the=

benefits=of=e~ch=individu~ä=methodK=qhe=~ddition=of=st~ted=preferences=

m~de= ~= key= poäicy= v~ri~bäe= signific~nt= th~t= w~s= insignific~nt= in= the=

reve~äed=preference=modeäK=ft=~äso=~ääowed=estim~tion=of=coefficients=for=

v~ri~bäes= not= incäuded= in= the= reve~äed= preference= d~t~= Ein= this= c~seI=

‘~menities’FK= qhe= ä~tent= f~ctors= provided= for= ~= richer= beh~vior~ä=

represent~tion= of= the= choice= process= E~äthough= not= ~= signific~nt=

improvement= in= over~ää= modeä= fitFX= ~nd= the= incäusion= of= t~ste=

NMN

heterogeneity=improved=the=expä~n~tory=power=of=the=modeäK=diven=th~t=

the=eCj=fr~mework=is=constructed=by=integr~ting=moduä~r=components=

such=~s=ä~tent=v~ri~bäe=modeäsI=fäexibäe=disturb~ncesI=gener~ä=orj=~nd=

nonJ=orj=modeä=coresI=disp~r~te=sources=of=preference=d~t~I=etcKI=the=

deveäopment= of= eCj= h~s= been= c~t~äyzed= by= technic~ä= deveäopments=

~nd= growing= pr~ctic~ä= experience= with= e~ch= of= the= moduä~r=

componentsK= ^äsoI= deveäopments= in= simuä~tionJb~sed= estim~tion=

techniques=~nd=_~yesi~n=procedures=for=compäex=modeä=systems=such=

~s=eCj=m~ke=eCj=more=fe~sibäe=~nd=pr~ctic~äK==

PWQ iatent sariables

oese~rchers= ~re= investig~ting= the= benefits= of= incorpor~ting= ä~tent=

psychoäogic~ä= constructsI= such= ~s= ~ttitudes= ~nd= perceptionsI= into=

choice=modeäsK=bym~nnI=_oerschJpup~n=~nd=buw~äs=EOMMNFOR=modeäed=

the=effect=of=risk=~ttitudes=on=portfoäio=choiceK=pt~nd~rd=portfoäio=modeäs=

~ssume= th~t= the= househoäd’s= choice= ~mong= ~ssets= is= guided= by= the=

~ssets’= risk= ~nd= return=~nd=by= individu~ä= risk=~versionK=qhese= modeäs=

usu~ääy=predict=th~t=every=individu~ä=hoäds=~=positive=percent~ge=of=risky=

fin~nci~ä=~ssetsK=qhis=predictionI=howeverI=is=in=st~rk=contr~st=to=~ctu~ä=

~sset=choiceW=most=househoäds=do=not=hoäd=risky=~ssets=such=~s=stockK=

Cäe~räyI= ~sset= choice= is= ~äso= infäuenced= by= credit= constr~intsI= income=

uncert~intyI= inform~tion= costsI= risk= ~versionI= imp~tienceI= ~nd= seäfJ

controäµ~ää= concepts= th~t= ~re= difficuät= to= me~sure= ~nd= prob~bäy= quite=

heterogeneous=in=the=popuä~tionK=qhe=key=contribution=of=this=rese~rch=

is= the=deveäopment=of= ~= joint= choice= ~nd= ä~tent= v~ri~bäe=modeä= Eusing=

the= fr~mework=presented= in=_enJ^kiv~=et=~äK=NVVVFOSI =in =which =~ =nonJ

NMO

äine~r= jfjCJtype= ä~tent= v~ri~bäe= modeä= is= used= to= reä~te= ä~tent=

individu~ä= tr~its= to= observ~bäe= determin~ntsK= qhey= found= th~t= the=

structur~ä=equ~tions=modeä=is=superior=to=the=more=convention~ä=‘‘proxy=

v~ri~bäe= specific~tion’’= in= terms= of= its= predictive= ~ccur~cyK= bstim~tion=

resuäts= ~äso= show= th~t= individu~äs= differ= in= their= ~ttitudes= tow~rds= risk=

~nd= timeX= ~nd= such= t~ste= v~ri~tions= ~re= system~tic= r~ther= th~n=

stoch~sticK=eenceI=there=is=consider~bäe=g~in=in=expäicitäy=modeäing=the=

heterogeneityK=

PWR Combining oevealed and ptated mreferences

mrocedures= for= combining= reve~äed= ~nd= st~ted= preference= d~t~= h~ve=

been= deveäoped= in= the= ä~te= NVUM’s= ~nd= ~re= being= wideäy= ~ppäied= E~s=

discussed= in= ~= previous= Choice= pymposium= p~perW= _enJ^kiv~= et= ~äK=

NVVQFK=jore=recentäyI=_h~t=~nd=C~steä~r=EOMMOFOTI=_rownstoneI=_unchI=

~nd=qr~in= EOMMMFOU=~nd=t~äker=~nd=_enJ^kiv~= EOMMNF=h~ve= integr~ted=

reve~äed=~nd=st~ted=preference=d~t~=whiäe=~äso=utiäizing=the=fäexibiäity=of=

mixed= äogits= to= obt~in= more= re~äistic= represent~tions= of= differences=

~cross=v~rious=sources=of=d~t~K=

PWS Bayesian mrocedures

qhe= existing= äiter~ture= predomin~ntäy= uses= the= m~ximum= simuä~ted=

äikeäihood= estim~tor= EjpibFK= ^s= described= by= qr~in= EOMMNFOUI= the=

simuä~ted= me~n= of= the= _~yesi~n= posterior= EpjmbF= provides= ~n=

~ätern~tive=estim~tor=to=jpibK=pjmb=is=consistent=~nd=efficient=under=

äess= stringent= conditions= th~n= jpib= ~nd= ~voids= the= numeric~ä=

difficuäties=~ssoci~ted=with=äoc~ting=the=m~ximum=Eincäuding=the=issue=of=

whether= ~= äoc~ä= m~ximum= is= gäob~äKF= Countering= these= ~dv~nt~gesI=

NMP

pjmb=usu~ääy= reäies=on=iter~tive=s~mpäing=proceduresI=n~meäy=jCjC=

methodsI= under= which= it= c~n= be= difficuät= to= determine= whether=

convergence= h~s= been= ~chievedK= qhe= rese~rcher’s= choice= between=

jpib=~nd=pjmb=often=hinges=on=their=reä~tive=convenience=in=terms=of=

progr~mming= ~nd= computer= timeK= _oäducI= cortin= ~nd= dordon= ENVVTF=

comp~red=the=two=procedures=for=probit=modeäs=~nd=found=run=times=to=

be=consider~bäy=äower=for=pjmbK=qr~in=EOMMNF=comp~red=run=times=~nd=

progr~mming=issues=for=mixed=äogit=under=v~rious=specific~tionsK=then=

~ää= coefficients= ~re= independentäy= norm~äI= the= two= procedures= ~re=

simiä~r= in= terms= of= run= time= ~nd= progr~mming= difficuätyK= Correä~ted=

coefficients= ~nd= äognorm~ä= distributions= ~re= more= e~siäy= h~ndäed= by=

pjmbK= ff= the= modeä= is= specified= to= incäude= fixed= ~nd= r~ndom=

coefficients= ~nd= or= uses= distributions= with= bounded= supportI= such= ~s=

tri~nguä~rI= jpib= is= f~ster= ~nd= e~sierK= qhese= comp~risons= were=

conducted=using=r~ndom=dr~ws=in=both=proceduresK=

PWT Behavioral aynamics and fnteractions

aiscrete= choice= modeäs= h~ve= m~inäy= been= used= in= ~= st~tic= contextK=

eoweverI= repetitive= choices= ~re= best= modeäed= by= tr~nsition=

prob~biäitiesK= ae= m~äm~= ~nd= hiä~ni= EOMMNF= deveäoped= such= dyn~mic=

discrete= choice= modeäsK= qhey= considered= ~= twoJperiod= modeäI= ~nd=

found=th~t=for=~dditive=r~ndom=utiäity=modeäsI=~n~äytic~ä=expressions=of=

the=tr~nsition=prob~biäities=c~n=be=derived=for=ch~nges=in=the=system~tic=

utiäity= Efor=ex~mpäe= price= or= qu~äity= ch~ngeFK= fn= the= simpäest= c~seI= the=

r~ndom= disturb~nces= rem~in= the= s~me= before= ~nd= ~fter= the= ch~ngeK=

cor=this=c~seI=the=tr~nsition=prob~biäities=c~n=be=computed=up=to=~=one=

NMQ

dimension~ä=integr~ä=for=the=dbs=modeäI=whiäe=they=h~ve=~=cäosed=form=

expression=for=~=äogit=modeäK=jonteJC~räo=simuä~tions=for=~=äogit=modeä=

show=th~t=using=inform~tion=on=the=tr~nsitions=r~ther=th~n=on=the=st~tic=

choices=improves=the=~ccur~cy=of=p~r~meter=estim~tesK=

PWU aata fmputation

aiscrete= choice= modeäs= ~re= frequentäy= estim~ted= using= proxy= or=

imputed=v~ri~bäesK= fn= these=situ~tionsI= the= inevit~bäe= imput~tion=errors=

c~use= bi~sed= inferenceK= _rownstone= et= ~äK= EOMMNF= deveäoped= ~nd=

demonstr~ted= ~= technique= to= perform= consistent= inference= without=

fitting=~=compäic~ted=joint=imput~tion=~nd=choice=modeäK=qhe=procedure=

buiäds= upon= oubin’s= ENVUTF= muätipäe= imput~tion= methodI= which= is= ~=

_~yesi~n= technique= with= good= cä~ssic~ä= inference= propertiesK= juätipäe=

imputed= v~äues= ~re= gener~ted= for= e~ch= observ~tionI= ~nd= sep~r~te=

choice= modeä= estim~tes= ~re= m~de= for= e~ch= set= of= imput~tionsK= qhe=

resuäts= from= these= sep~r~te= choice= modeä= estim~tes= ~re= e~siäy=

combined=to=yieäd=fin~ä=estim~tesK=qhis=muätipäe=imput~tion=technique=is=

p~rticuä~räy=v~äu~bäe=when=v~äid~tion=d~t~=~re=~v~iä~bäe= to=~ääow=direct=

observ~tion=of=the=imput~tion=errorK=_rownstone=et=~äK=EOMMNF=use=d~t~=

from= driving= c~rs= down= ~= corridor= to= ~ssess= the= error= in= tr~veä= time=

comput~tions= from= äoop= detectors= imbedded= in= the= ro~dw~y= surf~ceK=

qhey= find= th~t= the= äoop= detector= d~t~= ~re= downw~rd= bi~sed= by= RMBK=

juätipäe= imput~tions= of= the= correct= tr~veä= times= is= used= to= estim~te=

v~äue=of=timeJs~vings=from=t~king=~=toää=ro~dK=bven=though=the=muätipäe=

imput~tion= procedure= incre~ses= the= st~nd~rd= errors= of= the= p~r~meter=

estim~tesI=the=correction=signific~ntäy=äowered=v~äue=of=time=estim~tesK=

NMR

PWV aiscreteLContinuous jodels

then= ~= continuous= v~ri~bäe= depends= on= the= outcome= of= ~n=

endogenous=discrete=choiceI= the= regression=modeä= for= the= continuous=

v~ri~bäe= c~n= be= estim~ted= by= instrument~ä= v~ri~bäe= EfsF= inste~d= of=

ordin~ry= äe~st= squ~resI= to= ~void= endogeneity= bi~s= in= the= estim~ted=

coefficientsK= eoweverI= ~djustments= ~re= ~äso= needed= for= hypothesis=

testingK=_oäducI=hh~ä~f=~nd=joyneur=EOMMNF=demonstr~ted=theoretic~ääy=

~nd= through= jonte= C~räo= experiments= th~t= st~nd~rd= ~symptotic= tests=

overJreject= the= nuää= hypotheses= in= ~= regression= modeäs= with= discrete=

endogenous= regressorsK= qhey= extended= the= ex~ct= späitJs~mpäe= fsJ=

b~sed= tests= proposed= by= aufour= ~nd= g~si~k= EOMMMF= to=

discreteLcontinuous=modeäs= ~nd= showed= th~t= this= procedure=~chieves=

perfect=type=f=error=controäK=qhese=späit=s~mpäe=tests=~re=str~ightforw~rd=

to=impäementK=

PWNM poftware

qhe=~v~iä~biäity=of=estim~tion=procedures=is=critic~ä=for=the=deveäopment=

of= hybrid= choice= modeäsK= j~ny= ~dv~nced= discrete= choice= techniques=

~re=now=~v~iä~bäe=in=commerci~ä=st~tistic~ä=p~ck~gesK=qechniques=h~ve=

been= deveäoped= so= th~t= joint= estim~tion= with= reve~äed= ~nd= st~ted=

choice= d~t~= c~n= be= performed= with= nested= äogit= softw~reK= pever~ä=

commerci~ä=discrete=choice=softw~re=vendors=h~ve=recentäy=introduced=

routines= for= mixed= äogit= ~nd= probitX= ~nd= rese~rchers= ~re= m~king= their=

code= ~v~iä~bäe= on= the= webK= cor= ex~mpäeI= henneth= qr~in= provides=

d~ussJb~sed= code= for= mixed= äogitI= deveäoped= by= jicheä= _ierä~ireI= is=

designed=for=m~ximum=äikeäihood=estim~tion=of= the=dbs=modeä= f~miäyK=

NMS

_~sed= on= ~n= efficient= optimiz~tion= ~ägorithmI= this= softw~re= ~ääows= for=

sever~ä=modeäing=optionsI=such=~s=sc~äed=utiäity=functionsI=_oxJCox=~nd=

_oxJqukey=tr~nsformsI=~nd=performs=constr~ined=estim~tionK=

qhe=~v~iä~biäity=of=such=~=tooä=wiää=heäp=investig~te=v~rious=members=of=

the=dbs=f~miäy=E_ierä~ireI=^xh~usen=~nd=^b~y=OMMNFK=qhe=softw~re=is=

now=being=extended=to=mixed=dbs=modeäsK=

PWNN Challenges

qhe=~v~iä~biäity=of=the=new=comput~tion~ä=tooäs=provides=~=wide=~rr~y=of=

opportunities= for= estim~ting= hybrid= choice= modeäsK= eoweverI= compäex=

issues=~rise=with=respect=to=~=number=of=f~cetsK=qhis=section=highäights=

p~rticuä~r=ch~ääengesI=~nd=presents=ex~mpäes=of=reä~ted=rese~rchK=

PWNO jodel cormulation and bstimation

aetermining= wh~t= is= aeterministic= ~nd= wh~t= is= o~ndomK= ft= is= often=

difficuät= to=distinguish=where= to=buiäd= the=compäexity=in= the=modeäI= th~t=

isI=by=using=~=compäex=error=structure=or=by=buiäding=up=the=system~tic=

portion=of=the=utiäityK=qhe=consensus=is=th~t=~=good=error=is=~=zero=errorX=

th~t= isI= it= is= desir~bäe= to= exp~nd= on= the= system~tic= term= thereby=

reducing= the= disturb~nce= termK= eoweverI= v~rious= äimit~tions= Efor=

ex~mpäeI= d~t~F= pä~ce= restrictions= on= this= objectiveK= curthermoreI= ~=

compäex= but= incorrect= specific~tion= of= the= system~tic= portion= c~n= be=

worse= th~n= impäementing= ~= simpäe= system~tic= term= ~nd= compäex=

disturb~nce=termK=

=

NMT

PWNP The oesearch dap

qhere= ~re= m~ny= underrese~rched= ~re~s= in= consumer= beh~viorI=

p~rticuä~räy=in= terms=of=need=~rous~äI= inform~tion=integr~tionI=~nd=post=

purch~sing= infäuencesK= ^s= the= extern~ä= environment= ch~nges= ~t= ~n=

incre~sing=r~te=~nd=the=product=äife=cycäes=become=shorterI=the=current=

consumer=beh~vior=modeäs=~re= äikeäy= to=become= äess=popuä~rK=oecent=

rese~rch= in= the= ~re~s= of= psychoäogy= into= bi~ses= ~nd= heuristics= th~t=

consumers=use= to=simpäify=decisions= is= äikeäy=to=modify=the=strict=utiäity=

m~ximiz~tion=modeäsK=qversky=~nd=h~hnem~n=identified=heuristics=~nd=

bi~sesI= peopäe= Eincäuding= consumersF= use= in= their= decision= m~king=

processK= qhree= bi~ses= identified= were= represent~tiveness= Ein= which=

perceived=ide~s=~nd=stereotypes=obstruct=äe~rning=of=new=inform~tionFI=

~v~iä~biäity= Ein= which= respondents= seäect= events= or= outcomes= th~t= ~re=

f~miäi~r= to=themI=even= in=defi~nce=of=true=prob~biäitiesFI=~nd=~nchoring=

Ein= which= respondents= ~re= reäuct~nt= to= ~djust= ~dequ~teäy= from= their=

preconceived=ide~sFK==

qhe= roäe= of= memory= h~s= been= shown= to= be= import~nt= in= consumer=

beh~vior= experimentsK= fnform~tion= once= remembered= wiää= not= be=

necess~riäy= rec~ääedK= ^= consider~bäe= äiter~ture= exists= on= how=

consumers=re~ct=when=there= is= incompäete= inform~tionI=or=when=there=

is=too=much=inform~tionK==

fn=~ddition=to=the=intern~ä=eäements=of=consumer=beh~viorI= there=~re=~=

number= of= extern~ä= ones= incäuding= contextK= qhe= r~nge= of= ~ätern~tives=

~v~iä~bäe=is=import~nt=in=choiceK=qh~äer=ENVURF=suggested=th~t=there=~re=

two= forms= of= ~ction= utiäity= ~ssoci~ted= with= every= consumer= decisionW=

NMU

~cquisition=utiäity=~nd=tr~ns~ction=utiäityK=qhere=~re=m~ny=modeäs=b~sed=

on=~cquisition=utiäityK=qr~ns~ction=utiäity=is=p~rticuä~räy=tied=to=the=concept=

of=f~irness=~nd=~ppropri~tenessK==

qhere= ~re= modeäs= for= predicting= br~nd= choiceI= inform~tion= se~rchI=

preference= form~tionI= purch~se= incidenceI= ~nd= post= purch~se=

feedb~ckK= qhese= modeäs= ä~ck= in= ~ccommod~ting= heuristics= th~t=

consumers=uses= in= the=buying=processK=iittäe=work=h~s=been= done= to=

modeä= ~nd= deveäop= ~n= error= theory= ~nd= the= ment~ä= process= for= the=

simpäifying=heuristics=th~t=consumers=use=to=m~ke=decisionsK=

=

=

qhe Br~nd Choice jodel

cig PWQ

The Brand Choice jodel

mromotion mrice Advertising

fnform~tion pet of Consumer

bxperience

mrevious murch~se

Current murch~se cuture murch~se

jent~l process th~t uses heuristics

oese~rch d~p

109

=Ch~pter=Q=

pt~tement=of=mrobäem=

=QWN=lbjective=of=ptudy=

QWO=qhe=mrobäem=pt~tement=

QWP=fmport~nce=of=ptudy=

QWQ=_enefits=of=ptudy=

QWR=qhe=eypothesis=

110

Ch~pter=Q=

pt~tement=of=mrobäem==

QWN lbjectives of ptudy

qhe= prim~ry= objective= of= this= work= is= to= deveäop= ~= fr~mework= for=

modeäing= choice= beh~vior= which= is= consistent= with= the= existing=

beh~vior~ä= theoriesI= emph~sizes= ~= c~us~ä= structur~ä= formuä~tionI=

m~them~tic~ääy=tr~ct~bäe=~nd=empiric~ääy=verifi~bäeK=qhe=study=shouäd=be=

fäexibäe= enough= to= c~pture= unobserved= heterogeneity= in= the= choice=

beh~vior=stemming=from=

^K= Choice=sets=considered=by=consumersK=

_K= q~ste=v~ri~tions=~cross=consumers==

CK= ^ttitudes=~nd=perceptions=of=consumers=since=underäying=choice=

process=h~s=~=signific~nt=psychoäogic~ä=component=

aK= aecision=protocoäs=~dopted=by=consumers=in=~rriving=~t=~=choiceK=

qo= eä~bor~te= furtherI= the= study= sh~ää= expäore= the= possibiäity= of=

consumers=using=heuristics= in= their=decision=m~king=process=of=br~nd=

choiceK= qhe= study= shouäd= heäp= to= underst~nd= the= dyn~mics= of= the=

choice= procedure= ~nd= to= find= the= effects= of= these= dyn~mics= on= the=

choice=modeäs=m~rketers=use=to=predict=future=choice=prob~biäities=with=

speci~ä=reference=to=cjCdK==

oecent= rese~rch= indic~te= th~t= consumers= frequentäy= do= not= h~ve=

predefined= preferences= but= inste~d= construct= their= preferences= ~s=

111

needed= to= m~ke= their= choiceK= qo= construct= these= preferencesI=

consumers=use=~=v~riety=of=choice=ruäesK=lne=b~sic=ruäe=is=to=ev~äu~te=

~ää=the=br~nds=in=the=consider~tion=set=on=the=~ctu~ä=~ttribute=v~äue=~nd=

the=br~nd=with=the=highest=v~äue=is=chosenK=ff=~=consumer=oper~tes=in=

this=f~shion=to=m~ke=br~nd=choice=decisionsI=then=heLshe=is=s~id=to=be=

in=~ttribute=v~äue=b~se=mode=E^s_jFK==

then=it=comes=to=routine=purch~sesI=consumers=h~rdäy=invest=time=~nd=

efforts= to= choose= their= br~ndsK= merh~ps= consumers= might= h~ve=

ev~äu~ted= every= br~nd= in= the= consider~tion= set= e~räier= ~nd= h~ve= f~ir=

experience= with= the= br~ndX= they= then= h~rdäy= t~ke= ~ny= efforts= to= reJ

ev~äu~te=them=for= the=next=purch~seK=Consumers=m~ke=use=of=cert~in=

ruäes= to= convert= these= ~ctu~ä= ~ttribute= v~äues= to= more= psychoäogic~ääy=

me~ningfuäI= better=–= defined=ordered= v~äuesK=Choices= ~re= then=b~sed=

on= these= ordered= v~äuesK= Consumers= ~re= then= s~id= to= oper~te= in= ~=

psychoäogic~ä=mode=known=~s=ordered=v~äue=b~se=mode=Els_jFK==

qhe= m~in= issue= of= study= is= whether= such= psychoäogic~ä= modes= exist=

~nd=if= they=existI=wh~t=is=the=imp~ct=of=heuristics=used=by=consumers?=

C~n=the=existence=of=these=modes=be=proved=st~tistic~ääy?=ff=modes=do=

existI= then= how= äong= consumers= oper~te= in= the= psychoäogic~ä= mode=

whiäe=m~king=~=decision=in=br~nd=choice?===

qhe=äist=of=objectives=is=mentioned=beäowK=

NK= qo= ex~mine= the= possibiäity= of= consumers= using= heuristics= in=

br~nd=choice=in=the=cjCd=c~tegoryK=

112

OK= qo=ex~mine= in=which=psychoäogic~ä=mode=consumers=oper~te=–=

~ttribute=v~äue=b~se=mode=E^s_jF=or=ordered=v~äue=b~se=mode=

Els_jF=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK==

PK= qo= ex~mine= the= dur~tion= for= which= ~= consumer= oper~tes= in= ~=

p~rticuä~r=psychoäogic~ä=modeK=

QK= qo= expäore= the= possibiäity=of=deveäoping=~=st~tistic~ä= modeä= th~t=

c~n=eä~bor~te=the=äogic=of=existence=of=the=psychoäogic~ä=modesK=

RK= qo= expäore= the= possibiäity= of= whether= the= st~tistic~ä= modeä= c~n=

c~äcuä~te=future=choice=prob~biäities=in=e~ch=of=the=psychoäogic~ä=

modes=–=^s_j=or=ls_j=or=bothK=

SK= qo= ~dopt= ~= st~tistic~ä= ~ppro~ch= to= postuä~te= th~t= the= observed=

choice=beh~vior=is=the=outcome=of=~=prob~biäistic=d~t~=gener~ting=

processK==

QWO The mroblem ptatement

aue= to= constr~ints= imposed= by= äimited= cognitive= resources= ~nd= t~sk=

environmentI= consumers= m~y= empäoy= methods= ~nd= str~tegies= th~t=

reduce= efforts= they= expend= on= comput~tions= for= decision= m~kingK=

o~ther=ev~äu~ting=the=~ttributes=of=~ää= the=br~nds=in=their=consider~tion=

setI= they= reäy= on= short= cuts= to= decide= up= on= ~= br~nd= for= purch~seK=

eeuristics=m~y=be=good=~t=times=when=consumers=end=up=choosing=the=

m~rketer’s= br~ndI= but= the= b~d= side= of= it= is= when= they= choose=

competitor’s= br~nd= ~nd= äe~d= the= m~rketer= ~str~yK= qhis= is= when=

heuristics= infäuence= consumer’s= judgment= to= the= point= of= bi~sK= ^=

113

m~rketer= needs= to= underst~nd= such= bi~s= whiäe= computing= future=

prob~biäities=of=br~nd=choice=~nd=m~rket=sh~reK==

qhe=recent= rese~rch= in= the=~re~=of=psychoäogy= into= the=heuristics=~nd=

bi~ses=th~t=consumers=use=to=simpäify=decisions=is= äikeäy=to=modify=the=

strict=utiäity=m~ximiz~tion=modeäs=th~t=one=often=~ppäy=to=c~äcuä~te=future=

choice=prob~biäitiesK==

QWP fmportance of ptudy

qhe=m~rketing=pä~n=of=~ny=firm=st~rts=with=consumers=~t=its=~pexK=qhe=

psychoäogy= of= consumer= h~s= ~= direct= imp~ct= on= the= br~nd= choiceK=

rnderst~nding=consumer=psychoäogy=is=~s=good=~s=winning=h~äf=of=the=

competitionK= ^n= insight= into= consumer’s= buying= beh~vior= is= expected=

from=the=studyK==

qhis= modeä= is= buiät= on= simpäicity= of= m~croeconomic= theoryI= ~nd=

incorpor~tes= the= key=psychoäogic~ä= f~ctors= which= ende~vor= to= expä~in=

~nd= qu~ntify= seemingäy= irr~tion~ä= or= inconsistent= beh~vior= of=

consumersK=

QWQ Benefits of ptudy

qhe=study=shouäd=identify=the=v~rious=psychoäogic~ä=modes=consumers=

c~n=be=inI=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=qhe=psychoäogic~ä=

modes= identified= ~re= b~sed= on= the= use= of= cert~in= heuristics= by=

consumersK= = ^= m~rketer= c~n= underst~nd= how= consumers= t~ke=

decisions= by= rem~ining= in= ~= p~rticuä~r= psychoäogic~ä= modeK=

114

^ccommod~ting= heuristics= ~nd= bi~ses= in= comput~tion= of= future=

prob~biäities= of= br~nd= choice= c~n= heäp= m~rketer= to= ~chieve= better=

~ccur~cyK=j~rketers=c~n=design=better=m~rketing=pä~ns=~nd=str~tegies=

b~sed=on=the=knowäedge=of=heuristicsK==

QWR The eypotheses

nualitative

eMNW= Consumers= do= not= m~ke= use= of= fuää= inform~tion= they= receive= on=

br~nds= to= ev~äu~te= themK= eeuristics= ~re= uncommon= phenomenon= in=

consumers=br~nd=choice=processK=

eNNW= Consumers= do= not= m~ke= use= of= fuää= inform~tion= they= receive= on=

br~nds= to= ev~äu~te= themK= eeuristics= ~re= common= phenomenon= in=

consumers=br~nd=choice=processK=

=

eMOW=eeuristics=do=not=m~ke=~ny=imp~ct=on=br~nd=choice==

eNOW=eeuristics=m~ke=imp~ct=on=br~nd==

=

eMPW= Consumers= ~re= not= in= ~= psychoäogic~ä= st~te= of= ^ttributes= s~äue=

^ttribute=_~se=jodeI=th~t=isI=they=do=not=ev~äu~te=the=~ttributes=of=the=

br~nds= which= ~re= in= their= consider~tion= set= whiäe= m~king= ~= br~nd=

choiceK==

115

eNPW=Consumers=~re=in=the=psychoäogic~ä=st~te=of=^ttributes=s~äue=_~se=

jodeI= th~t= isI= they=ev~äu~te= the=~ttributes=of= the=br~nds=which=~re= in=

their=consider~tion=set=whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=choiceK=

=

eMQW=Consumers=~re=not= in=psychoäogic~ä=st~te=of=lrdered=s~äue=_~se=

jodeI=th~t=isI=they=do=not=put=the=br~nds=in=their=consider~tion=set=in=~=

p~rticuä~r=order=of=their=preferences=whiäe=m~king=~=choiceK=

eNQW=Consumers=~re=psychoäogic~ä=st~te=of=lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jodeI=

th~t= isI= they= put= the= br~nds= in= their= consider~tion= set= in= ~= p~rticuä~r=

order=of=their=preferences=~nd=then=m~ke=~=br~nd=choice=

=

eMRW=Consumers=~re=in=singäe=st~te=of=modeI=th~t= isI=either=in=^ttribute=

s~äue= _~se= jode= or= in= lrdered= s~äue= _~se= jode= whiäe= m~king= ~=

br~nd=choiceK=

eNRW=Consumers=~re=in=hybrid=st~te=of=modeI=th~t=isI=in=both=the=st~tes=

of=modes=–=^ttribute=s~äue=_~se=jode=or=lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jode=

whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=choiceK=

116

nuantitative

eMSW= mrob~biäities= of= br~nd= choice= c~n= be= c~äcuä~ted= for= e~ch=

psychoäogic~ä=mode=

eNSW= mrob~biäities= of= br~nd= choice= c~nnot= be= c~äcuä~ted= for= e~ch=

psychoäogic~ä=mode=

=

117

Ch~pter=R=

mä~n=of=ptudy==

RWN=rnderst~nding=the=fssue=

RWO=a~t~=Coääection=

RWP=fnstrument=of=a~t~=Coääection=

RWQ=p~mpäing=mä~n=

RWR=pt~tistic~ä=qooäs=

RWS=poftw~re=rsed=

RWT=iimit~tions=of=ptudy=

118

Ch~pter=R=

mä~n=of=ptudy=

=RWN rnderstanding the fssue

qhis=study= is= to= know=how=consumers=use=heuristics= in= their=decision=

process= of= br~nd= choiceK= j~ny= times= heuristics= äe~d= to= bi~s= in= the=

decision= m~king= process= of= br~nd= choice= th~t= m~y= äe~d= m~rketers=

~str~yK=oese~rch=tiää=this=d~te=indic~tes=th~t=consumersI=whiäe=m~king=~=

decision= on= br~ndI= ev~äu~te= ~ää= the= inform~tion= they= receive= on= the=

~ttributes= of= ~ää= the= br~nds= they= h~ve= in= their= consider~tion= setK= _ut=

rese~rch=on=heuristics=indic~tes=th~t=~ää= the=inform~tion=is=not=used=by=

consumers= in= the= ev~äu~tion= of= the= br~ndsK= qhen= c~me= the= concept=

th~tI= consumers= convert= these= ~ctu~ä= ~ttributes= v~äue= to= more=

psychoäogic~ääy= me~ningfuäI= better= defined= ordered= v~äuesK= qh~t= is=

consumers=put=the=br~nds=in=order=of=their=preference=with=reference=to=

some= ~ttribute= sc~äeK= qhe= two= b~sic= modes= consumers= ~re= s~id= to=

oper~te= whiäe= m~king= ~= br~nd= choice= ~re= termed= ~s= ^ttribute= s~äue=

_~se= jode= E^s_jF= ~nd= lrdered= s~äue= _~se= jode= Els_jFK= qhe=

issues=for=study=~re=in=which=psychoäogic~ä=mode=consumers=st~y=whiäe=

t~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=eow= äong= the= order=of= the=br~nds=

rem~in=unch~nged=~nd=whyI=if=the=consumer=is=oper~ting=in=the=ordered=

v~äue=mode?=^re=heuristics= responsibäe= to=keep= the=order=unch~nged=

for=äong?==

119

^nother= import~nt= issue=is= to= find=whether=choice=prob~biäities= c~n=be=

c~äcuä~ted=for=e~ch=psychoäogic~ä=mode=~fter=~ccommod~ting=heuristics=

in=the=choice=processK=qhe=study=is=conducted=with=speci~ä=reference=to=

cjCdK=

RWO aata Collection

mrim~ry=d~t~=on=the=purch~se=of=three=detergent=br~nds=were=coääected=

from= the= st~te= of= j~h~r~shtr~= POR= househoäds= p~rticip~ted= in= the=

surveyK= b~ch= househoäd= w~s= monitored= for= three= months= for= the=

purch~se= of= detergent= powder= of= the= three= br~ndsK= qhe= prim~ry= d~t~=

were= used= for= the= execution= of= the= br~nd= choice= modeä= which= is=

deveäoped=in=this=studyK=

pecond~ry= d~t~= were= rese~rch= p~persI= m~g~zines= ~nd= reference=

booksK= qhe= foääowing= web= sites= were= used= for= the= second~ry= d~t~=

coääection=

NK= ppok=Epoci~ä=pciences=oese~rch=ketworkF==

OK= teb=site=of=e~rv~rd’s=rniversity=

PK= teb=site=of=^meric~n=j~rketing=^ssoci~tion=

QK= = b_pCl=

qhe=foääowing=journ~äs=were=referred=for=the=study=

NK= qhe=gourn~ä=of=j~rketing=oese~rch=

OK= qhe=gourn~ä=of=Consumer=_eh~vior=

PK= e~rv~rd=_usiness=oeview=

120

QK= oese~rch= p~pers= compiäed= by= C~mbridge= rniversity= mress=

“gudgment=rnder=rncert~inty=–=eeuristics=~nd=_i~ses=

RWP fnstrument of aata Collection

a~t~= on= purch~ses= of= detergent= br~nds= by= POR= househoäds= were=

coääected= with= the= heäp= of= ~= questionn~ireK= b~ch= househoäd= w~s=

monitored= for= detergent= purch~ses= for= three= months= which= m~kes=

PxPOR=Z=VTR=observ~tionsK=qhe=questionn~ire=comprised=of=questions=

m~inäy= to=coääect=d~t~=on= the=purch~se=of= the=br~nds=~nd= the=price=~t=

which= they= were= purch~sedK= ft= ~äso= h~d= provisions= to= find= whether=

consumers=were=exposed=to=~dvertisements=which=sign~äed=the=receipt=

of= ~ttributes= Efe~turesF= inform~tion= ~nd= whether= the= br~nds= were=

purch~sed=under=~ny=promotion=done=either=by= the=ret~iä=outäet=or= the=

comp~ny=owning=the=br~ndK=

qhe=br~nd=choice=modeä=deveäoped=is=b~sed=on=~=utiäity=function=using=

juätinomi~ä= iogistic= oegressionK= qhree=br~nds=of= detergents= EcjCdF=

considered=for=study=~re=purfI=^rieä=~nd=oinK=qhe=utiäity=function=in= the=

modeä=used=five=~ttributes=~=dummy=term=for=br~ndO=~nd=br~ndP=e~chI=

price=term=giving=the=price=in=rupeesI=~=fe~ture=term=th~t=w~s=“N≤=when=

the= respondents= were= exposed= to= ~dvertisements= of= the= br~nds=

otherwise=“M≤=w~s=~ssignedK=qhe=promotion=term=t~king=v~äue=“N≤=when=

the=br~nd=w~s=especi~ääy=promotedLnot=promotedK==

121

RWQ The pampling mlan

a~t~=were=coääected=from=POR=househoäds=who=were=monitored=for=their=

detergent= purch~ses= for= three= monthsK= qhis= g~ve= POR= u= P= Z= VTR=

observ~tions=for=the=studyK==

5:4:1rniverse of ptudy

qhe=universe=of=study=w~s=the=househoäds=th~t=use=detergent=powders=

~nd= those= who= h~ve= purch~sed= the= three= br~nds= in= the= ä~st= three=

monthsK==

5:4:2 pampling crame

qhe= s~mpäing= fr~me=consists=of= the= househoäds=who=purch~sed= N=kg=

p~ck=of=~ny=of=the=three=br~nds=of=detergents=in=the=ä~st=three=monthsK=

5:4:P marameters for Choosing the pample

qhe= respondents= were= middäe= income= äiter~tes= who= h~ve= purch~sed=

~ny=of=the=three=br~nds=in=previous=three=months=from=the=d~te=of=the=

visit=

5:4:4 pample pize

qhe= s~mpäe= size= c~äcuä~ted= is= three= hundred= ~nd= twenty= five=

househoädsK=

p~mpäe=size=is=determined=~s=foääows=

= = = p=Z=xzO=EpEN=–=pFFz=L=eO=

122

cor=VRB=äeveä=of=signific~nce=z=Z=NKVS=

mroportion=of=popuä~tion=to=be=s~mpäed=Z=PMB=Z=MKP=

e=Z=the=proportion=of=error=Z=RB=Z=MKMR=

= = = p=Z=xNKVSO=EMKPEN=–=MKPFFz=L=EMKMRFO=

= = = ====

= = = ===Z=POOKSV=rounded=off=to=POR=

5:4:5 The pample

prK no kame of mlace koK of households

participated

N= _eed= OR=

O= m~rbh~ni= OR=

P= hoäph~pur= OR=

Q= phoä~pur= OR=

R= ^ur~ng~b~d= OR=

S= ^mr~v~ti= OR=

T= mune= OR=

U= jumb~i= TR=

V= k~gpur= OR=

NM= qh~ne= OR=

NN= i~tur= OR=

= Total POR

Table RWN pampling plan for data collection

123

RWR ptatistical Tools

qhe=b~sis=for=deveäoping=the=st~tistic~ä=br~nd=choice=modeä=is=the=utiäity=

function= b~sed= on= juätinomi~ä= iogistic= oegressionK= qhe= foääowing=

st~tistic~ä=functions=~re=used=in=the=deveäopment=of=the=four=moduäes=of=

the=br~nd=choice=modeäK==

juätiv~ri~te=korm~ä=aistribution=

C~tegoric~ä=aistribution=

tish~rt=aistribution=

airichäet=aitribution=

pignum=function==

RWS poftware rsed

qhe=four=moduäes=of=the=br~nd=choice=modeä=were=converted=into=~=

softw~re=code=~nd=executed=in=tin_rdpK=tin_rdp=is=softw~re=which=

st~nds=for=tindow’s=sersion=for=_~yesi~n=fnference=rsing=dibbs=

p~mpäingK==

RWT iimitations of ptudy

NKqhe= study= considers= onäy= the= br~nd= choice= decision= ~nd=

ignores=the=other=~spects=of=buying=beh~viorK=ft=is=not=cäe~r=how=

ordered=v~äue=processing=~ffects=these=other=decisionsK=curther=

rese~rch=is=necess~ry=to=investig~te=thisK=

124

OK= qhe= modeä= ~ääows= for= onäy= m~in= effects= of= price= ~nd= other=

predictor=termsK=qhere=~re=other=v~ri~bäes=Ewhich=~re=ignored=in=

this= studyFI= such=~s=purch~se= incidenceI=qu~ntity=decisions=etc=

in=the=situ~tion=th~t=m~y=~ffect=br~nd=choiceK=

PK=jore=rese~rch=is=necess~ry=to=specify=the=f~ctors=th~t=c~use=

consumers= to= b~se= their= choice= on= ~ttribute= versus= ordered=

v~äue=inform~tionK=j~rketing=mix=f~ctors=~nd=consumer=specific=

f~ctors= wouäd= be= expected= to= infäuence= consumers’= use= of=

~ttribute= inform~tionK= cor= ex~mpäeI= m~rketing= communic~tions=

th~t= fix~tes= on= specific= ~ttribute= v~äues= r~ther= th~n= ~ttribute=

import~nce=might= äe~d=consumers= to= focus=on= products’=~ctu~ä=

r~ther= th~n= ordered= v~äuesK= pignific~nt= price= v~ri~tions= might=

äe~d=consumers=to=focus=on=product’s=~ttribute=v~äuesK==

=

126

Chapter S

Constructing=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=m~rt=–=f==

rse=of=eeuristics=in=_r~nd=Choice=aecisions==

=SWN===qhe=Choice=mrocess

SWO===Ch~r~cteristics=of=Choice=mrocess

SWP===thy=ao=Consumers=rse=eeuristics?=

SWQ===d~thering=C=rsing=fnform~tion=

SWR===bxtern~ä=fnform~tion=pources=

SWS===k~ture=of=fnform~tion=qr~nsferred=

SWT===pystem~tic=aifferences=

SWU===bffects=of=aifferences=in=bxperience=of=Consumers=

SWV===bffect=of=aifferences=in=aur~biäity=of=mroduct=

127

Chapter S

Constructing=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=m~rt=–=f==

rse=of=eeuristics=in=_r~nd=Choice=aecisions=

=SWN The choice process

fn=m~rketing=the=cäoser=study=of=consumer=beh~vior=st~rted=in=the=e~räy=

NVSMsI=~nd=peopäe=st~rted=pointing=to=the=individu~äism=of=the=decisions=

right= ~w~yK= qhey= ~rgued= th~t= decisions= m~de= by= ~= consumer= were=

he~viäy= infäuenced= by= her= perception= of= the= environment= ~nd=

underst~nding=of= sep~r~te=eventsI=which=~re=highäy= individu~äistic=~nd=

~gentJspecificK=cor=ex~mpäe=_~uer= ENVSMF=cä~imed= th~t=wh~t=m~ttered=

in=consumer=choice=w~s=the=‘perceived=risk’=of=the=purch~se=Eg~coby=et=

~äKI=NVVQFK=i~ter=eoäbrook=~nd=eirschm~n=ENVUOF=emph~sized=the=roäe=

of=the=emotion~ä=st~te=of=the=consumer=when=m~king=the=decision=EeoätI=

NVVRFK= fn= psychoäogy= _~rtäet= ENVPOF= cä~imed= the= individu~äity= of= the=

decisions=much=before=th~t=E_ettm~n=~nd=winsI=NVTTFK=ee=~rgued=th~t=

memory= retriev~ä= w~s= b~sed= on= the= individu~ä’s= underst~nding= of= the=

eventK= jore= recentäyI= creimuth= ENVVOF= ~nd= tright= ~nd= iynch= ENVVQF=

h~ve=emph~sized=the=roäe=of=the=fit=of=one’s=perception=~bout=the=woräd=

with= the=re~äity=~nd= the=uniqueness=of=ones=beäiefs=respectiveäyK=^ää=of=

these=consider~tions=point=to=the=uniqueness=of=the=expect~tions=~bout=

the=goods=for=different=consumers=Ephir~i=~nd=jeyerI=NVVTFK=

128

^ää=these=consider~tions=~bout=individu~äity=~re=niceäy=summed=up=in=the=

discussion=~bout=the=uniqueness=of=the=consumer’s=environment=EeKgK=

pimonson=~nd=qverskyI=NVVO=~nd=m~yne=et=~äKI=NVVOFK=qhis=~ppro~ch=

emph~sizes= the= roäe= of= the= consumers’= individu~ä= perception= of= the=

surrounding= environmentI= ~nd= ~rgues= th~t= decisions= ~re= contingent=

upon=these=individu~ä=perceptions=EeKgK=m~yneI=NVUO=~nd=joorthy=et=~äKI=

NVVTFK= qhe= discussion= ~bove= emph~sizes= the= heterogeneity= of= the=

consumers= invoäved= ~nd= heäps= to= underst~nd= the= äeveä= of= difficuäty= of=

the= choice=processK=lne=c~n=~äso= e~siäy= im~gine= how=difficuät= it= is= to=

t~ke=the=ch~nging=environment=into=~ccount=whiäe=m~king=choicesK=poI=

it= is= interesting= to= see= how= consumers= h~ndäe= this= compäic~ted= t~skK=

th~t= do= they= do= first?= th~t= do= they= do= ~fter?= fn= foääowing= two=

subsectionsI=the=evidence=~bout=the=structure=~nd=ch~r~cteristics=of=the=

choice= process= ~re= discussedK= qhere= ~re= m~ny= different= goods= ~nd=

e~ch= of= them= h~s= sever~ä= Emost= of= them= tens= ofF= br~ndsK= eow= do=

consumers= choose= ~mong= so= m~ny= options?= ao= they= consider= ~ää= of=

them?=fn=m~rketing=there=is=evidence=th~t=peopäe=go=through=~=specific=

kind= of= seäection= processK= ^s= w~s= proposed= by= m~yne= ENVTSF= the=

choice= process= consists= of= muätipäe= st~gesK= fn= his= semin~ä= ~rticäeI=

m~yne= ENVTSF= eä~bor~ted= on= the= structure= of= the= choice= processK= ee=

cä~imed= th~t= the= number= of= different= br~nds= ~v~iä~bäe= on= the= m~rket=

m~de= it= h~rd= to= process= ~ää= the= inform~tion= ~bout= ~ää= of= themK= m~yne=

ENVTSF= suggested= th~t= pooä= of= possibäe= purch~se= ~ätern~tives= w~s=

shrinking= ~s= the= choice= process= w~s= proceeding= untiä= there= w~s= onäy=

129

one= product= äeft= in= the= pooä= of= ~ätern~tivesI= which= eventu~ääy= w~s=

purch~sedK= ^= bit= ä~ter= iussier= ~nd= läsh~vsky= ENVTVF= proposedI= ~nd=

supported= with= empiric~ä= evidenceI= ~= more= specific= structure= of= the=

choice=processK=qhey=proposed=th~t=the=process=h~d= two=st~gesK=qhe=

first=w~s=gener~ä=screeningI=where=consumers=went=through=descriptive=

inform~tion= ~v~iä~bäe= ~bout= ~ää= the= goodsI= or= ~t= äe~st= ~bout= most= of=

themI= ~nd= seäected= sever~ä= suit~bäe= c~ndid~tes= for= further=

consider~tionK= qhe= second= st~ge= w~s= fin~ä= choiceI= where= consumers=

were=choosing=one=out=of= the=sever~ä=br~nds=seäected=during= the= first=

st~geK=qhis= type= of= “phortJäisting=~nd= fin~ä= choice≤= is= very= common= in=

v~rious= other= choice= processes= EeKgK= job= hiringI= lsc~rsI= kobeä= ~nd=

other=types=of=prizesFK=i~ter=studies=by=_eih~ä=~nd=Ch~kr~v~rti= ENVUSF=

~nd=ousso=~nd=iecäerc=ENVVQF=~äso=find=robust=empiric~ä=support=to=this=

biJst~ge=structure=of= the=choice=processI=~äthough=they=~äso=specuä~te=

~bout=the=existence=of= intermedi~te=st~gesI=where= the=choice=set=gets=

more=~nd=more=distiääedK=

_ettm~n= ~nd= m~rk= ENVUMF= t~ke= the= muätist~ge= n~ture= of= the= choice=

process=~s=given=~nd=~n~äyze= the=reäi~nce=on=extern~ä= inform~tion=on=

different=st~gesK=^äthough=inform~tion=use=wiää=be=discussed=in=det~iä=in=

the=next=section=it=worth=mentioning=hereI=th~t=the=findings=of=_ettm~n=

~nd=m~rk=ENVUMF=point=to=the=difference=in=extent=of= inform~tion=us~ge=

~cross=different=st~ges=of= the=choice=processK=qhey=present=evidence=

th~t= more= extern~ä= inform~tion= is= used= during= the= first= st~ge= of= the=

choice=process=comp~red=to=the=second=st~geK=meopäe=tend=to=choose=

130

the=sm~ää=set=of=sever~ä=br~nds=for=further=consider~tion=with=the=heäp=of=

extern~ä=inform~tionI=whiäe=b~sing=the=fin~ä=choice=on=person~ä=feeäings=

~nd=interpret~tionsK=

SWO Characteristics of the choice process

eow=do=peopäe=use=the=inform~tion=coääected?=ao=they=use=it=directäyI=or=

do=they=h~ve=some=kind=of=~ägorithm=for=deducing=~=specific=~ction=pä~n=

from= different= pieces= of= inform~tion?= qhere= is= extensive= evidence= in=

m~rketing= EeKgK= _ettm~nI= NVTN= ~nd= ieongI= NVVPF= ~s= weää= ~s= in=

psychoäogy= EeKgK= Ch~ikenI= NVUM= ~nd= phir~i= ~nd= jeyerI= NVVTF= th~t=

consumers= use= heuristics= in= the= choice= processK= eeuristics=~re= some=

kind= of= simpäified= ruäes= for= h~ndäing= the= ~v~iä~bäe= inform~tionK= qhusI=

consumers= do= not= use= inform~tion= in= its= r~w= formK= qhere= is= ~=deb~te=

whether= those= ruäes=~re=storedLperm~nent=or= they=~re=constructed=on=

the=spot=~s=the=consumer=f~ces=the=probäemK=_ettm~n=ENVTTF=contr~sts=

these= two= views=~bout= the= heuristics=used= in= the= choice=process=~nd=

tries= to= identify=which=of= them=is= correct= by=using=wide= r~nge=of= nonJ

dur~bäe= goodsK= qhe= concäusion= he= ~rrives= to= is= th~t= constructive=

heuristics= ~re= usu~ääy= used= when= consumers= h~ve= äittäe= experience=

orL~nd= when= the= choice= is= difficuätK= tiäe= stored= heuristics= ~re= used=

when= consumers= ~re= ~äre~dy=experts= or= the=choice=probäem= is= trivi~äK=

qhis= is= very= intuitiveI= ~s= in= the= first= two= c~ses= Einexperienced=

consumers=~nd=difficuät=choiceF=consumers=ä~ck=high=qu~äity=E“intern~ä≤F=

in= form~tion= ~bout= ~= productK=thiäe= in= the= ä~tter= two= c~ses= “intern~ä≤=

inform~tion= is= presentI= or= not= requiredK= qhere= is= ~äso= ~= discussion=

131

whether= simpäe= heuristics= ~re= used= ~ää= the= timeI= during= every= choice=

processK= qhe= ‘function~ä= perspective’= formuä~ted= in= Ch~iken= ENVUMF=

decomposes=purch~se=concerns=into=two=Ereäi~biäity=of=the=product=~nd=

priceF= ~nd= cä~ims= th~t= simpäe= heuristics= wiää= onäy= be= used= if= price=

concerns=~re=predomin~nt=Eusu~ääy=with=che~pI=nondur~bäe=goodsF=~nd=

th~t= if=reäi~biäity=concerns=~re=predomin~nt=peopäe=wiää=eng~ge=in=more=

system~tic= processing= of= the= inform~tionK= jore= recent= studies= äike=

phir~i=~nd=jeyer=ENVVTF=~nd=a~hr=et=~äK= EOMMMF=~n~äyze=the=n~ture=of=

heuristicsK= a~hr= et= ~äKEOMMMF= ~re= concerned=with= the= effort= put=by= the=

consumers= into= the= choice= process= ~nd= the= äeveä= of= sophistic~tion= of=

heuristics=used=in=consumer=dur~bäe=purch~sesK=qhey=find=th~t=peopäe=

~re=using=quite=compäic~ted=heuristicsI=which=~re=perm~nentäy=upd~ted=

~nd= modifiedI= thusI= these= heuristics= incäude= system~tic= inform~tion=

processingK= phir~i= ~nd= jeyer= ENVVTF= ~n~äyze= the= dyn~mics= of= the=

sophistic~tion= äeveä= of=heuristics=~äong= the=consumer=expertise=on= the=

ex~mpäe= of= ~= mount~in= bike= ~nd= concäude= th~t= heuristic= ruäes= get=

simpäer= ~s= consumers= ~cquire= more= experienceK= pimiä~r= resuäts= ~re=

presented=by=Coupey=ENVVQF=who=finds=th~t=simpäe=heuristics=~re=used=

onäy= by= experienced= consumersK= poI= it= seems= th~t= peopäe= use=

compäic~ted= constructive= heuristicsI=which=get= simpäified=~nd= turn= into=

stored=ruäes=~s=consumers=~cquire=experienceK=

SWP thy do consumers use heuristics?

qhe= m~in= justific~tion= c~n=be= found= in= psychoäogy= ECh~ikenI= NVUMFOVK=

Cognitive=psychoäogy=cä~ims=th~t=peopäe=~re=not=~bäe=to=process=~ää=the=

132

~v~iä~bäe= inform~tion= system~tic~ääyK= qhe= costs= of= inform~tion=

processing=become=so=high=th~t=peopäe=~re=forced=to=se~rch=for=simpäe=

methods= to= h~ndäe= the= inform~tionK= ^n= ~ätern~tive= expä~n~tion= is=

jcduire’s= ENVSVF= principäe= of= the= ‘ä~zy= org~nismK’= eere= the= mess~ge=

recipient= tries=to=utiäize=the=inform~tion=~bout=the=inform~tion=source=in=

order= to= ev~äu~te= the= reäi~biäity= of= inform~tion= itseäfI= r~ther= then=

system~tic~ääy= processing= the= piece= of= inform~tion= receivedK= cor=

ex~mpäeI= peopäe=usu~ääy=e~siäy=~ccept=the=piece=of= inform~tion= th~t= is=

coming= from= their= friends= to= be= trueI= comp~red= to= the= inform~tion=

coming=from=~dvertisingK=fn=this=c~seI=~gents=~ppe~ä=on=the=intention=of=

the=source=of=inform~tion=to=infäuence=~=receiver=Ee~nsenI=NVTOFK=qo=cut=

the=äong=story=shortI=use=of=heuristics=is=the=s~ving=of=energy=which=is=

extensiveäy=done=by=consumers=where=~ppropri~teK=fnform~tion=us~ge=

~nd= tr~nsfer= whiäe= m~king= choices= consumers= f~ce= ~n= inform~tion=

overfäowK=fn=the=previous=section=it=is=seen=how=they=use=inform~tion=in=

the= choice= processI= but= how= do= they= g~ther= inform~tion?= qo= wh~t=

extent= do= they= reäy= on= thisI= extern~äI= inform~tion?= th~t= type= of=

inform~tion= do= they= receive= ~nd= send= further?= qhese= topics= ~re=

discussed=in=foääowing=subsectionsK=

SWQ dathering and using information

^s=observedI=peopäe=use=extern~ä=inform~tion=~bout=~v~iä~bäe=products=

in=order=to=reduce=the=uncert~inty=~bout=the=outcomes=they=~re=f~cing=

E~äthough= they= do= not= try= to= reduce= th~t= uncert~inty= to= zero= even= if=

possibäe= Eg~coby= et= ~äKI= NVVQFFPMK= _ut= how= extensiveäy= do= consumers=

133

use= th~t= inform~tion?=qhe= findings= in= the= äiter~ture=on= this= m~tter=~re=

inconsistent= E_ruksI= NVUR= ~nd= o~ju= et= ~äKINVVRFPNK= ^ää= the= äiter~ture=

~grees=th~t=extern~ä=inform~tion=use=h~s=to=be=reä~ted=with=the=äeveä=of=

expertise=of=the=consumer=with=reg~rd=to=the=good=under=consider~tionK=

_ut= the= form= of= reä~tionship= between= these= v~ri~bäes= is= uncäe~rK= cor=

ex~mpäeI= in= m~rketing= _ettm~n= ~nd= m~rk= ENVUMFPO= h~ve= conducted= ~=

study= invoäving= ä~rge= number= of= consumers= EhousewivesF= ~nd=

microw~ve= oven= being= ~= choice= productK= qhey= h~ve= grouped=

housewives= in= three= c~tegories= b~sed= on= their= experience= with= the=

product=~nd=conducted=~n=interviews=with=protocoä=~n~äysis=in=order=to=

eäicit= the= sh~pe= of= the= extern~ä= inform~tion= use= ~äong= the= expertise=

äeveäK= qhe= resuät= is= th~t= the= reä~tion= is= of= ~n= invertedJr= sh~pe= th~t=

me~ns= th~t= novices= ~nd= experts= use= äess= extern~ä= inform~tionI= whiäe=

consumers=with=intermedi~te=äeveäs=of=expertise=use=moreK=pome=other=

rese~rchers= EeKgK= kewm~n= ~nd= pt~eäinI= NVTNFPP= h~ve= found=

monotonic~ääy= neg~tive= reä~tionship= whiäe= m~ny= of= the= rese~rchers=

interested=in=the=issue=EeKgK=Cä~xton=et=~äK=NVTQF=J=no=reä~tionship=~t=~ääK=

oese~rch= in= psychoäogy= EeKgK= ^äb~= ~nd= eutchinsonI= NVUT= ~nd=

j~hesw~r~n= et= ~äKI= NVVSFPQ= provides= the= re~sons= why= more=

experienced= consumers= wiää= be= using= äess= extern~ä= inform~tion=

comp~red= to=novicesK=qheir=~rgument= is= th~t=experience= is= tr~nsä~ted=

into= the= inform~tion= th~t=consumer=stores= in=mindK=qhusI= for=decisionJ

m~king= expertsI= who= h~ve= richer= knowäedgeX= need= äess= extern~ä=

inform~tion=EChi=et=~äKI=NVUNFK=qhis=~rgument=justifies=the=monotonic~ääy=

134

neg~tive= reä~tionshipI= whiäe= äess= use= of= inform~tion= by= novices= is=

justified=by=their=äower=~biäity=of=processing=it=Eo~ju=et=~äKI=NVVRFK=

qhe= import~nce= of= the= extern~ä= inform~tion= c~n= be= understood= by=

äooking=~t=the=effort=äeveä=put=in=se~rch=processK=qhere=~re=two=views=on=

how= consumers= put= effort= into= se~rch= processK= lne= is= the= effortJ

~ccur~cy=fr~mework= th~t=cä~ims=th~t=effort=Ewhich=is=usu~ääy=me~sured=

by=the=se~rch=time=EeKgK=lk~d~=~nd=eochI=OMMQFF=is=costäy=~nd=peopäe=

try=to=m~ke=~=tr~deJoff=between=effort=~nd=~ccur~cy=of=their=choiceK=qhe=

second=is=the=conceptu~ä=fr~mework=th~t=cä~ims=th~t=peopäe=focus=on=~=

cert~in=~spect=of=the=~ätern~tives=th~t=is=p~rticuä~räy=s~äient=in=the=choice=

process= Ea~hr= et= ~äK= OMMMFK= fn= gener~ä= evidence= supports=

consider~tions=~bout=notJveryJextensive=inform~tion=se~rch=even=in=the=

c~se= of= dur~bäe= good= purch~ses= EeKgK= _e~tty= ~nd= pmithI= NVUTFPRK=

joorthy= et= ~äK= ENVVTFPS= conducted= ~= surveyJb~sed= study= of= extern~ä=

inform~tion= se~rch= beh~vior= of= new= c~r= buyers= ~nd= ~rrived= ~t= the=

simiä~r= concäusion= th~t= “Consumers= exhibit= very= äimited= prepurch~se=

inform~tionJse~rch= ~ctivityI= even= for= highJticket= dur~bäe= goodsK≤= _ut=

there=~re=differences=~cross=the=different=ch~r~cteristics=of= the=se~rch=

process=E_e~tty=~nd=pmithI=NVUTFK=jost= import~nt=~mong=them=is= the=

difference=in=se~rch=effort=~cross=the=difference=in=experience=EieongI=

NVVPFK=jost=of=the=studies=find=th~t=novices=exhibit=higher=effort=äeveä=in=

inform~tion= se~rch= comp~red= to= experts= EeKgK= CoupeyI= NVVQ= ~nd=

_ettm~n=~nd=winsI=NVTTFK=qhis= is= in= äine=with=the=consider~tions=~bout=

the= us~ge= of= the= extern~ä= inform~tion= sources= discussed= ~boveK= _ut=

135

there= is= ~äso= ~= study= by= _ennett= ~nd= j~ndeää= ENVSVF= which= presents=

evidence= on= no= decre~se= in= extern~ä= inform~tion= se~rch= ~äong= the=

expertise=incre~se=for=dur~bäe=purch~sesK=qhis=~spect=of=the=consumer=

beh~vior=wiää= be=discussed=more=extensiveäy= in= subsectionI=where= the=

effects=of=difference=in=experience=of=consumers=on=the=choice=process=

is=discussedK=

SWR bxternal fnformation pources

qhere= ~re= ~ää= sorts= of= different= inform~tion= sources= ~v~iä~bäeK= ao=

consumers= use= ~ää= of= them= to= equ~ä= extent?= ao= they= trust= extern~ä=

inform~tion=~s=much=~s=“intern~ä≤=inform~tion=~ccumuä~ted=through=own=

experience?= iiter~ture= in= psychoäogy= Ec~zio= ~nd= w~nn~I= NVTUFPTI= ~s=

weää=~s=in=m~rketing=Epmith=~nd=pwiny~rdI=NVUPF=suggests=th~t=weights=

put=on=the=inform~tion=obt~ined=through=the=immedi~te=experience=~re=

higher=then=those=of=inform~tion=obt~ined=through=~ny=type=of=extern~ä=

source=Ejuthukrishn~nI=NVVRFK=_utI=do= the=consumers=trust=equ~ääy=to=

the= inform~tion= obt~ined= through= different= extern~ä= sources?= qhere=

exist= some= oäd= m~rketing= studies= presenting= the= evidence= ~bout= the=

r~nking=of=extern~ä= inform~tion=sources=by=the= intensity=of= their=us~ge=

EeKgK= _ennett= ~nd= j~ndeääI= NVSV= ~nd= aunc~n= ~nd= läsh~vskyI= NVUOFK=

qhese= studies= consider= consumer= reports= ~nd= de~äer= visits= to= be= the=

most= wideäy= used= source= of= inform~tionK= kext= come= experts’= ~nd=

friends’= opinions= E_e~tty= ~nd= pmithI= NVUTFK= ^dvertising= ~nd= m~ss=

medi~= score= consider~bäy= äower= on= these= sc~äesK= qhis= r~nking= is= by=

frequency= of= us~geI= this= does= not= teää= much= ~bout= which= sources= do=

136

consumers= re~ääy= trustK= msychoäogy= offers= ~= hint= ~bout= which=

inform~tion= sources= c~n=be= reg~rded= the= most= trustworthyK= pummers=

~nd= hing= ENVSVF= ~nd= jyers= ~nd= oobertsen= ENVSVF= cä~im= th~t=

consumers= judge=~bout= inform~tion=sources=~ccording= to=the=source’s=

intention= to= infäuence= the= inform~tion= receiverK= ln= this= sc~äe=person~ä=

communic~tion=~mong=consumers=scores= the=highest= Ee~nsenI=NVTOI=

pK= QNNFK= jyers= ~nd= oobertsen= ENVSVF= ~s= weää= ~s= pummers= ~nd= hing=

ENVSVF= ~rrive= to= this= concäusion= ~fter= c~refuääy= ~n~äyzing= the= opinion=

äe~dership=process=in=sm~ää=groups=of=peopäeK=jore=recent=studies=find=

th~t= interperson~ä= reä~tions= ~re= so= import~nt= th~t= consumers= exhibit=

more= f~ith= in= inform~tion= obt~ined= through= their= friends= th~n= the=

re~son~bäe= äeveä= Edershoff= et= ~äKI= OMMSFPUK= poI= interperson~ä= reä~tions=

~mong= consumers= Ecommunic~tion= with= friendsF= ~re= ~= very= import~nt=

inform~tion= sourceK=_ut=how=shouäd=one=choose=whom=to= receive= the=

inform~tion= from=~mong=~ää= her= friends?=pimon= ENVRUF= ~nd=Cyert=~nd=

j~rch= ENVSPF= h~ve= suggested= th~t= consumers= foääow= the= äe~st= effort=

ruäeK=qhis=me~ns=th~t=consumers=~re=minimizing=the=over~ää=inform~tion=

se~rch=effort=given=the=tr~deJoff=between=se~rch=~nd=inform~tion=qu~äity=

receivedK=jore=specific~ääyI=consumers=~re=~sking=the=friends=who=~re=

the=most=knowäedge~bäe=~bout=~=cert~in=good=~nd=who=wiää=give=them=~=

piece= of= inform~tion= th~t= needs= äe~st= compäement~tion= from= other=

inform~tion=sourcesI=so=th~t=they=c~n=termin~te=their=se~rch=effort=right=

~w~y= ~fter= receiving= this= p~rticuä~r= piece= of= inform~tionK= jore= recent=

consumer=beh~vior=modeäs=EeKgK=dershoff=et=~äKI=OMMNF=suggest=th~tI=for=

137

the=s~ke=of= se~rch=effort=minimiz~tion=~äong=with= the=wiää= of=obt~ining=

high=qu~äity=sign~äsI=consumers=shouäd=~sk=for=the=inform~tion=~=friend=

who= wouäd= give= ~= fuää= r~nking= of= the= br~nds= of= ~= cert~in= good= under=

consider~tionK=

SWS kature of information transferred

meopäe= receive= inform~tion= from= their= friendsI= but= wh~t= type= of=

inform~tion= do= they= receive?= fs= it= det~iäed= inform~tion= ~bout= different=

ch~r~cteristics=of=~=good?=lrI=is=it=~=gener~ä=ev~äu~tion=of=~=good?=qhis=

obviousäy=depends=on=wh~t=ex~ctäy=peopäe=remember=~bout=the=goods=

they= consumeK= qhe= e~räy= work= in= psychoäogy= on= this= topic= Egohnson=

~nd= oussoI= NVTUF= h~s= presented= evidence= th~t= peopäe= remember= ~=

gener~ä= impression=~bout= the=goods=more=e~siäyK=bven= if= immedi~teäy=

~fter=consumption=peopäe=remember=ex~ct=fe~tures=of= the=productI=~s=

time=goes=by=they=tend=to=forget=the=ch~r~cteristics=of=the=good=~nd=the=

inform~tion= distiääs= to= gener~ä= impression= ~bout= the= good= E_ieh~ä= ~nd=

Ch~kr~v~rtiI= NVUPFK_ieh~ä= ~nd= Ch~kr~v~rti= ENVUPF= ~rrived= to= this=

concäusion= by= ex~mining= ~= beh~vior= of= f~iräy= ä~rge= s~mpäe= of=

consumers=of=pocket=c~äcuä~tors=in=experiment~ä=settingK=qhe=group=of=

consumers= who= w~s= ~ääowed= to= choose= one= out= of= Q= br~nds= ~nd=

consume= on= the= first= st~ge= of= experiment= ~s= ~n= ~ätern~tive= to= äe~rn=

~bout=the=sep~r~te=ch~r~cteristics=of=different=br~ndsI=memorized=onäy=

~=gener~ä=impression=~bout=the=good=they=h~ve=consumed=on=the=first=

st~geI= in= contr~st= to= the= group= who= did= not= h~ve= consumption=

~ätern~tive=on=the=first=st~geK=qhenI=it=seems=str~it=forw~rdI=th~t=most=of=

138

the= inform~tion= received= by= the= ~gents= through= the= interperson~ä=

communic~tion=is=in=form=of=~=gener~ä=ev~äu~tion=of=the=goods=th~t=their=

friends= h~ve= consumedK= ^= bit= ä~terI= other= cognitive= psychoäogistsI=

working= on= memory= retriev~ä= found= ~nother= expä~n~tion= of= the=

phenomenonK= tyer= ~nd= pruää= ENVUVF= h~ve= presented= the= modeä= of=

impression= form~tionK= fn= this= modeäI= ~= consumer= gets= inform~tionI=

~bout= the= product= she= is= consumingI= in= piecesK= bvery= piece= of=

inform~tion= is= tr~nsferred= into= ~= speci~ä= ‘bin’= in= memory= of= ~n= ~gent=

upon= its= ~rriv~äK= ^nd= the= inform~tion= retriev~ä= from= this= memory= bin=

works=in=~=w~y=th~t=it=is=e~sier=to=get=the=piece=of=inform~tion=ä~ter=you=

h~ve= put= it= in= the= binK= mäusI= the= gener~ä= impressions= ~bout= ~= cert~in=

product= ~re= formed= b~sed= on= the= ~ää= inform~tion= ~v~iä~bäe= in= the= binI=

~nd=this= impression=~äso=goes=to=the=bin=~s=~=piece=of=inform~tionK=lf=

courseI=it=is=stored=on=the=top=of=the=binI=~nd=thus=is=e~siest=to=retrieveK=

crom= this= theory= it= is= e~sier= to= sh~re= gener~ä= impressions= ~bout= the=

goodsI= bec~use= th~t= piece= of= inform~tion= is= e~sier= ~v~iä~bäe= in= the=

memory= of= ~= communic~torK= m~rk= ~nd= tyer= ENVVQF= h~ve= empiric~ääy=

ex~mined= the= theory= by= studying= the= inform~tion= remembering= ~bout=

the=qs=sets=by=~=ä~rge=s~mpäe=of=~gentsK=qhey=späit=the=s~mpäe=in=two=

subs~mpäes= ~ssigning= säightäy= different= t~sks= to= e~ch= of= two= ~nd=

concäuded=th~t=gener~ä=impressions=~re=not=~äw~ys=formed=in=minds=of=

peopäeK=qhey=~re=onäy=formed=if=there=is=~=purpose=to=do=soK=_ut=when=

they= ~re= formedI= indeed= they= ~re= e~siest= pieces= of= inform~tion= to=

retrieve=~nd=communic~teK=

139

SWT pystematic aifferences

^äthough= the= choice= process= is= very= individu~äistic= ~nd= uniqueI= there=

~re= some= simiä~rities= ~cross= ~ää= the= consumers= documented= in= the=

äiter~ture= reviewed= hereK=qhere= ~re= ~äso= system~tic= differences= in= the=

choice=process=depending= on= cert~in= ch~r~cteristics=of= the= consumer=

EeKgK= äeveä= of= expertiseF= or= the= good= EeKgK= dur~biäityF= under=

consider~tionK= fn= the= foääowing= subsections= these= system~tic=

differences=~re=discussedK=

SWU bffects of aifferences in bxperience of a Consumer

aifferent= consumers= h~ve= different= äeveäs= of= expertise= with= reg~rd= to=

different= goods= ~v~iä~bäe= on= the= m~rketK= bxpertise= c~n= be= bro~däy=

defined=~s=the=inform~tion=~bout=the=ch~r~cteristics=of=the=goodI=either=

obt~ined=through=immedi~te=experience=or=some=otherI=highäy=reäi~bäeI=

sourcesK=k~rrower=definitions=excäude=sources=of=inform~tion=other=th~n=

experience= E_ettm~n= ~nd= winsI= NVTTFK= eere= the= ä~tter= definition= is=

consideredI=which=c~n=be=rephr~sed=~s=the=f~miäi~rity=of=the=consumer=

with= the= good= ECoupeyI= NVVQFPVK= fn= the= äiter~ture= it= is= common= not= to=

discuss= the= choice= process= ~cross= the= continuous= expertise= v~ri~bäeI=

but=r~ther=to=divide=the=pooä=in=twoW=experts=~nd=novices=EeKgK=^äb~=~nd=

eutchinsonI=NVUT=~nd=joorthy=et=~äK=NVVTFK=fn=this=c~se=the=difference=

in=beh~vior=shouäd=be=e~siäy=visibäeK=

qhe= m~jor= difference= between= experienced= ~nd= nonJexperience=

consumers= is= th~t= they= ~re= using= different= choice= mech~nismsK=

_ettm~n=~nd=wins= ENVTTF=conducted=~n=expäor~tory=study=using= thinkJ

140

~äoud=protocoäs= of=~= f~iräy= ä~rge=s~mpäe= of=grocery= shoppers=who=did=

not=know=the=true=~im=of=~n=experimentI=thus=beh~ved=n~tur~ääy=enough=

with=reä~tion=to=the=use=of=~v~iä~bäe=inform~tionK=fn=the=beginning=of=the=

study= the=s~mpäe= w~s=divided= in= twoW= experienced=~nd= inexperienced=

consumersK=qhe=resuät=of=the=study=is=th~t=experienced=consumers=use=

the= mech~nisms= th~t= utiäize= the= inform~tion= they= h~ve= stored= in=

memoryI= whiäe= novices= use= different= mech~nisms= due= to= the= ä~ck= of=

high= qu~äity= inform~tion= ~cquired= person~ääy= through=experienceK= qhis=

ä~ck= of= ‘intern~ä’= inform~tion= induces= novices= to= use= constructive=

mech~nisms= more= intensiveäy= ~nd= reäy= more= on= ‘environment~ä=

inform~tion’= Ee~nsenI= NVTOI= ppK= NUMJNUNFK= b~räier= work= by= t~rneryd=

ENVSNFI=who=studied=dur~bäe=goods= Ec~rsF= in= contr~st= to= _ettm~n=~nd=

wins= ENVTTFI= confirms= the= s~me= p~ttern= of= choice= mech~nisms=

Ee~nsenI=NVTOFK= ff=one=~ssumes=th~t=experience=provides=high=qu~äity=

inform~tion= ~bout= the= ~v~iä~bäe= products= ~s= weää= ~s= ~biäity= of= better=

processing= the= extern~ä= inform~tionI= then= it= is= obvious= th~t=

inexperienced= consumers= ~re= f~cing= ~= more= compäex= t~sk= th~n=

experienced=consumers=Eiussier=~nd=läsh~vskyI=NVTVFQMK=

qhe= ä~ck= of= experience= ~äso= indirectäy= ~ffects= the= novice’s= choiceK= ^=

poor=knowäedge=b~se=~bout=~=cert~in=good=m~kes= it=difficuät= to=digest=

the=inform~tion=~v~iä~bäe=through=extern~ä=sources=Ej~hesw~r~n=et=~äKI=

NVVSFK=qh~t=is=why=inform~tion=processing=t~kes=more=time=for=novices=

th~n=it=t~kes=for=experts=Ee~nsenI=NVTOFK=aue=to=th~tI=nonJexperienced=

consumers=mostäy=~ppäy=constructive=heuristics=to= the=choice=processI=

141

for=ex~mpäe=they=judge=depending=whether=they=h~ve=he~rd=the=br~nd=

n~me= or= notI= whiäe= in= the= expert’s= c~se= the= f~me= of= the= br~nd= n~me=

does= not= pä~y= signific~nt= roäe= Em~rk= ~nd= tyerI= NVVQFQNK= ^fter= this=

discussion=it=sh~ää=not=be=surprising=th~t=it=is=e~sier=for=experts=to=form=

expect~tions= ~bout= the= s~tisf~ction= äeveä= they= ~re= ~bout= to= derive=

through= the= consumption= of= ~= cert~in= good= ~nd= th~t= usu~ääy= their=

predictions=~re=more=~ccur~te=comp~red=to=those=of=novicesI=which=~re=

b~sed= pureäy= on= extern~ä= EthusI= more= noisyF= inform~tion= Ephir~i= ~nd=

jeyerI=NVVTFK=qhusI=the=consumer’s=str~tegy=to=stick=with=the=good=th~t=

he= h~s= experience= with= EeKgK= g~cobyI= NVTNF= sh~ää= not= be= surprising=

eitherK= p~mueäson= ~nd= weckh~user= ENVUUF= present= the= s~me= type= of=

evidence=confirming= the= äoy~äty=of= the=consumers= to=br~nds= th~t= they=

h~ve=consumedK=qheir=study=confirms=th~t=there=is=~=“st~tus=quo=bi~s≤=

in=decision=m~king=even=~fter=controääing=for=number=of=v~ri~bäesK=

SWV bffects of aifferences in aurability of a mroduct

qhere= is=evidence=of= differences= in= consumer= beh~vior= depending= on=

the= dur~biäity= of= ~= product= purch~sedK= qypic~ääy= one= think= of= twoW=

dur~bäe=~nd=nondur~bäe=goods=Ee~nsenI=NVTOFK=e~nsen=ENVTOF=reviews=

numerous= e~räy= studies= presenting= evidence= documenting= th~t= the=

choice= str~tegies= ~re= different= in= c~se= of= nonJdur~bäes= comp~red= to=

dur~bäesK=qhe=difference=äies=in=the=extent=of=inform~tion=coääected=~nd=

processedK=thiäe=in=the=c~se=of=nonJdur~bäes=the=process=is=more=äike=

tri~ä=~nd=error=EeKgK=pt~ffordI=NVSS=~nd=pheth=~nd=senk~tes~nI=NVSUFI=

e~nsen=ENVTOF=~rgues=th~t=dur~bäes=~re=too=import~nt=to=be=purch~sed=

142

in= ~= simiä~r= m~nner= Ech~pter= NRF= ~nd= th~t= consumers= ~re= trying= to=

~n~äyze= more= extern~ä= inform~tion= inste~dK= qhis= is= f~iräy= intuitive= ~s=

dur~bäes=~re=reä~tiveäy=expensive=comp~red=to=nonJdur~bäe=goods=~ndI=

by=definitionI=they=~äso=h~ve=äonger=service=timeK=qhere=is=gre~t=body=of=

indirect= evidence= on= this= m~tterK= pome= rese~rchers= investig~te= the=

effect= of= ~ccount~biäityP= Eee~th= et= ~äK= NVVQF= ~nd= invoävement= EieongI=

NVVPF=on=choice=processK=ft=is=quite=obvious=th~t=shopping= for=dur~bäe=

goodsI=which=usu~ääy=h~ve=higher=prices=~nd=äonger=periods=of=serviceI=

wiää= resuät= in=higher=~ccount~biäity=~nd= invoävement= Elk~d~=~nd=eochI=

OMMQFK= qhenI= there= is= ~= quite= robust= finding= Eee~th= et= ~äKI= NVVQF= th~t=

higher= ~ccount~biäity= äe~ds= to= more= ~ccur~te= processing= of= the=

inform~tion= for=better=justific~tion=of= the=choice=to=be=m~deK=pimonson=

ENVUVF=~äso= finds= the=s~me=p~ttern=of=beh~vior=~fter=~n~äyzing=~=wide=

r~ge=of=dur~bäe=~nd=nondur~bäe=goods=EeKgK=beerI=mouthw~shI=qs=setsI=

c~äcuä~torsI=~p~rtmentsFW=in=c~se=of=high=~ccount~biäity=Edur~bäe=goodsF=

consumers= eng~ge= in= more= det~iäed= ~nd= timeJconsuming= inform~tion=

processingK= _esidesI= there= is= ~äso= evidence= th~t= in= c~se= of= high=

~ccount~biäity= E~nd= more= competitive= setupI= me~ning= more= options=

~v~iä~bäeF= invoäved= in= the= choice= process= some= ch~r~cteristics= of= the=

extern~ä=inform~tion=source=EeKgK=‘spokesperson’s=f~me’F=become=more=

import~nt=EeKgK=ee~th=et=~äKI=NVVQ=~nd=ee~th=~nd=Ch~tterjeeI=NVVRFK==

^s= ~bout= invoävement= äeveäI= there= is= evidence= consistent= with= th~t= of=

~ccount~biäityK= Ch~iken= ENVUMF= presents= the= evidence= th~t= high=

invoävement= in= the= choice= process= resuäts= in= consumers= eng~ging= in=

143

more=system~tic=inform~tion=processingI=whiäe=äow=invoävement=resuäts=

in= higher= reäi~nce= on= simpäe= heuristicsK= qhere= is= ~äso= evidence= on=

difference=in=ch~r~cteristics=of=the=product=th~t=consumers=with=different=

invoävement= äeveäs= concentr~te=onK=wh~ng=~nd=j~rkm~n= EOMMMF=show=

th~t= in= äowJinvoävement=c~se= the=~äign~bäe= fe~tures= Efe~tures= th~t=~re=

present=in=~ää=of=the=products=in=the=choice=setF=of=the=product=~re=more=

import~ntI= whiäe= in= highJinvoävement= c~se= non~äign~bäe= fe~tures=

become= cruci~äK= koteI= th~t= ~n~äysis= b~sed= on= ~äign~bäe= fe~tures= is=

much=simpäer=~nd=requires=äess=time=comp~red=with=the=~n~äysis=b~sed=

on= non~äign~bäe= fe~turesK= qhis= me~ns= th~t= peopäe= ~re= spending= äess=

time=on=the=choice=process=for=nondur~bäes=th~n=for=dur~bäes=~nd=th~t=

they= h~ve= different= str~tegies= for= ~n~äyzing= extern~ä= inform~tion= in=

these= two= c~sesI= which= is= ~g~in= consistent= with= the= evidence= from=

rese~rch= discussed= ~boveK= qhere= is= ~äso= evidence= on= differences=

depending= on= whether= the= choice= is= m~de= ~t= home= or= in= the= store=

Ee~nsenI=NVTOI=ch~pter=VFK=qhis=~spect=seems=to=~ffect=the=size=of=the=

choice=set=considered=for=the=fin~ä=choiceW=of=courseI=in=c~se=of=inJstore=

decision=m~king=the=choice=set=is=consider~bäy=sm~ääer=~s=it=is=äimited=to=

the=products=~v~iä~bäe= in= th~t= storeK= ff= one=~rgues= th~t= choices= ~bout=

dur~bäes=~re=usu~ääy=m~de=~t=homeI=whiäe=most=of=the=time=the=choice=

~bout=nondur~bäes= t~kes=pä~ce= in= storesI= this=c~n=be= reg~rded= ~s=~n=

indirect=evidence=for=differences=in=dur~biäity=tooI=me~ning=th~t=in=c~se=

of= dur~bäe= goods= initi~ääy= peopäe= consider= ~= wider= r~nge= of= possibäe=

~ätern~tives=Edifferent=br~ndsF=comp~red=to=nondur~bäe=goodsK=

144

Consumers’=purch~sing=decisions=~re=often=b~sed=on=perceptions=~nd=

predictions= of= product= qu~äityK= qhese= qu~äity= judgments= ~re= in= turn=

dependent=on=product=~ttributes=~nd=their=reä~tion=to=the=potenti~ä=utiäity=

~= consumer= m~y= derive= from= th~t= productK= thiäe= most= consumers=

wouäd= ~gree= th~t= it= is= the= more= fund~ment~äI=underäying= physic~ä= ~nd=

reput~tion~ä=ch~r~cteristics=th~t=determine=~=product’s=v~äueI=it=is=often=

~n= unwieädy= t~sk= for= consumers= to= process= ~ää= the= ~v~iä~bäe= ~ttribute=

inform~tionK=

qhereforeI=consumers=often= reäy=on=simpäe=decisionJm~king=str~tegies=

when= ev~äu~ting= productsK=cor=ex~mpäeI= consumers= m~y= infer= from=~=

product’s= price= th~t= its= physic~ä= ~ttributes= ~re= of= higher= qu~äity= Esince=

the= inputs= to= production= m~y= be= more= expensiveFK= ^ätern~teäyI=

consumers=m~y=consider=~=br~nd=n~me=~s=~n=umbreää~=concept=under=

which=v~rious=~ttributes=~re=~ssumed=to=~ccomp~ny=the=productK=^s=~=

resuät=of= these=inferred=~ttributesI=consumers=often=use=br~nd=or=price=

inform~tion=in=m~king=product=~ssessmentsK=

ConsequentäyI= consumers’= ~ttention= to= br~nd= ~nd= price= inform~tion=

m~y=bäock=the=use=of=other=Epotenti~ääy=more= fund~ment~äF= inform~tion=

in= judging=~=product’s=qu~äityK=qo=this=endI=expäore=how=the=process=of=

~ttention= bäocking= ~nd= the= sequenti~ä= order= in= which= inform~tion= is=

received= ~ffect= judgments= ~bout= product= qu~äityK= lne= find= th~t= initi~ä=

br~nd=~nd=price=inform~tion=c~n=not=onäy=bäock=~ttention=to=subsequent=

inform~tion= ~bout= product=qu~äityI=but= th~t= this= inform~tion= m~y=~ffect=

judgments=reg~rding=simiä~r=productsK==

145

jost=consumers=~gree=th~t=it=is=not=br~nd=n~me=or=price=th~t=in=~nd=of=

themseäves= determine= qu~äityK= ft= is= therefore= puzzäing= th~t= m~ny=

consumers’=decisions=reäy=on=this= inform~tion=even=in=the=presence=of=

~v~iä~bäeI= often= contr~dictoryI= inform~tion= on= more= qu~äity= reäev~nt=

product= ~ttributesK= fn= essenceI= br~nd= ~nd= price= inform~tion= ~re= often=

heuristic~ääy= used= in= ev~äu~ting= products= ~nd= bäock= consumers’=

~ttention= to= other= qu~äityJdetermining= product= ch~r~cteristicsK= ^s= ~=

resuätI=consumers=often= f~iä= to=correctäy=differenti~te=between=products=

of=v~rying=qu~äitiesK=qhis=f~iäure=m~y=h~ve=signific~nt=weäf~re=effects=vi~=

the=direct=cost=of=the=product=EeKgK=p~ying=~=premium=for=br~nded=goods=

over= identic~ä= generic= products= or= äesser= known= br~ndsF= ~nd= the=

indirect= costs= of= products= not= fuääy= s~tisfying= ~= consumers= utiäity=

expect~tions= EeKgK= the= product= m~y= not= effectiveäy= m~tch= with= ~=

consumer’s= preferencesFK= pince= consumers= often= reäy= on= br~nd= ~nd=

price= inform~tion=~s= ers~tz= ruäes= of= decisionJm~kingI= consumers= m~y=

never= devi~te= from= these= purch~sing= str~tegiesI= impäying= th~t= the=

~ttributeLqu~äity=reä~tionship=of=other=substitute=products=m~y=never=be=

fuääy=äe~rnedK=qhis=type=of=decisionJm~king=m~y=be=p~rticuä~räy=reäev~nt=

in= contexts= where= consumers= ~re= initi~ääy= inexperienced= or= h~ve= äittäe=

inform~tion=~bout=~=product’s=~ttributes=~nd=their=reä~tion=to=qu~äityK=

oese~rch=in=psychoäogy=h~s=demonstr~ted=th~t=individu~äs=often=reäy=on=

heuristics=when=coping=with=even=moder~teäy=compäex= äe~rning= t~sksK=

lne= consequence= of= heuristic= b~sed= äe~rning= is= the= phenomenon=

known= ~s=~ttention=bäockingW=once=~n= individu~ä= äe~rns= to=~ssoci~te= ~=

146

cue= with= ~n= outcomeI= this= ~ssoci~tion= tends= to= bäock= subsequent=

~ttempts=to=p~ir=new=cues=with=th~t=s~me=outcomeK=qhis=phenomenon=

h~s= been= reported= in= experiments= with= ~nim~äs= Eh~minI= NVSVF= ~nd=

more= recent= studies= with= hum~ns= Eaickinson= et= ~äKI= NVUQX=t~ädm~nn=

~nd= eoäyo~kI= NVVOFK= bssenti~ääyI= bäocking= ~rises= from= individu~äs’=

reäi~nce=on=“first=impressions≤=r~ther=th~n=eng~ging=more=sophistic~ted=

äe~rning=str~tegiesK=

ft= is= suggested= th~t= this= ~ttention= bäocking= is= present= in= consumer=

decisionJm~kingK= ppecific~ääyI= once= consumers= äe~rn= ~n= initi~ä=

~ttributeLqu~äity= ~ssoci~tion= reg~rding= ~= p~rticuä~r= productI= this=

~ssoci~tion= subsequentäy= bäocks= consumers’= ~ttention= to= otherI= more=

fund~ment~ä= ~ttributeLqu~äity= reä~tionshipsK=cor= ex~mpäeI= if= consumers=

initi~ääy= ~ssoci~te= ~= p~rticuä~r= br~nd= n~me= with= high= qu~äityI= this=

~ssoci~tion= m~y= bäock= consumers= from= identifying= the= physic~ä=

ch~r~cteristics= of= competing= products= th~t= ~re= ~äso= indic~tive= of= high=

qu~äityK= qhis= impäies= th~t= firms= m~y= utiäize= ~ttention= bäocking= in= their=

m~rketing=str~tegiesW=if=bäocking=exists=in=consumer=choice=contextsI=~=

firm= c~n= p~ir= ~= unique= ~ttribute= of= its= productI= for= ex~mpäe= ~= br~nd=

n~meI= with= EperceivedF= high= qu~äityK= qhis= ~ssoci~tion= bäocks=

competitors’= ~ttempts= to= ~ssoci~te= other= ~ttributes= Ep~rticuä~räy= those=

f~voring= their= productsF= with= high= qu~äity= in= the= minds= of= consumersK=

^ttention=bäocking= in= ~= consumer= äe~rning= context=h~s= been= expäored=

by=other=rese~rchersK=

147

cor=ex~mpäeI=in=~=series=of=experiments=s~nlsseä~er=~nd=^äb~=EOMMMF=

demonstr~ted=th~t=if=~=consumer=äe~rns=to=~ssoci~te=~=p~rticuä~r=br~nd=

with= ~= qu~äity= äeveäI= subsequent= inform~tion= combining= more= reäi~bäe=

physic~ä=~ttributes=with=~=qu~äity=äeveä=~re=often=ignoredK=fn=other=wordsI=

~= properäy= pä~ced= br~nd= mess~ge= EeKgK= br~nd= u= is= high= qu~äityF= c~n=

bäock=subsequent=äe~rning=~bout=product=~ttributes=EeKgKI=~ttribute=^=is=

~=ch~r~cteristic=of=~=high=qu~äity=productFK=

NQU

Ch~pter=T=Constructing=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=m~rt=–=ff=

qhe=_~ckground=for=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=

=TWN B~yesi~n fnference

TWO aefinition of pt~tistic~l jodel

TWP B~ye’s qheorem

TWQ jodel B~sed B~yesi~n fnference

TWR fnference rsing Conjug~te mrior aistribution

TWS j~rkov Ch~in jonte C~rlo Algorithm in B~yesi~n fnference

TWT jCjC

TWU dibbs p~mpling

TWV aevi~nce fnform~tion Criterion

TWNM tinBrdp poftw~re

NQV

Ch~pter=T

Constructing=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=m~rt=–=ff=

qhe=_~ckground=for=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=

qhe= br~nd= choice= modeä= th~t= is= deveäoped= in= this= study= is= b~sed= on=

_~yesi~n= fnference= ~nd= j~rkov= Ch~in= jonte= C~räo= jethodsK= qhis=

ch~pter=is=to=cre~te=~=b~ckground=for=the=choice=modeäK=

TWN Bayesian fnference qhe= beginning= of= the= ONst= century= found= _~yesi~n= st~tistics= to= be=

f~shion~bäe= in= scienceK= _ut= untiä= ä~te= NVUMsI= _~yesi~n= st~tistics= were=

considered=onäy=~s=~n= interesting=~ätern~tive= to= the= “cä~ssic~ä≤= theoryK=

qhe=m~in=difference=between=cä~ssic~ä=st~tistic~ä= theory=~nd=_~yesi~n=

~ppro~ch= is= th~t= the= ä~tter=considers=p~r~meters=~s= r~ndom=v~ri~bäes=

th~t= ~re= ch~r~cterized= by= ~= prior= distributionK= qhis= prior= distribution= is=

combined= with= the= tr~dition~ä= äikeäihood= to= obt~in= the= posterior=

distribution= of= the= p~r~meters= of= interest= on= which= the= st~tistic~ä=

inference= is= b~sedK= _~yesi~n= st~tistics= suddenäy=bec~me= f~shion~bäeI=

opening= new= highw~ys= for= st~tistic~ä= rese~rchK= rsing= j~rkov= Ch~in=

jonte=C~räo=simuä~tionI=one=c~n=now=set=up=~nd=estim~te=compäic~ted=

modeäs=th~t=couäd=not=be=soäved=by=tr~dition~ä=methodsK==

pince= NVVMI= when= jCjC= first= ~ppe~red= in= st~tistic~ä= scienceI= m~ny=

import~nt=reä~ted=p~pers=h~ve=~ppe~red=in=the=äiter~tureK=auring=NVVM=J

NVVRI=jCjC=–reä~ted=rese~rch=focused=on=the=impäement~tion=of=new=

methods=in=v~rious=popuä~r=modeäs=xfor=ex~mpäe=deäm~I=oubin=ENVVOFI=

NRM

deäf~ndI=pmith=~nd=iee=ENVVOFI=aeää~port~s=~nd=pmith= ENVVPFK=auring=

the=s~me=period=~n=e~räy=version=of=tn_rdp=softw~re=~ppe~redK=_rd=

w~s= computingJä~ngu~geJoriented= softw~re= in= which= the= user= onäy=

needed= to= specify= the=structure=of= the=modeäK=qhen=_rdp=w~s=using=

jCjC=methods=to=gener~te=s~mpäes=from=the=posterior=distribution=of=

the= specified= modeäK= Currentäy= tin_rdp= NKQKP= is= ~v~iä~bäe= on= the=

internetK= qhe= deveäopment= of= tin_rdp= h~s= proved= v~äu~bäe= for= the=

impäement~tion= of= _~yesi~n= modeäs= in= ~= wide= v~riety= of= scientific=

discipäinesK= tin_rdp= is= the= key= f~ctor= in= the= growing= popuä~rity= of=

_~yesi~n=methods=in=scienceK=

TWO aefinition of ptatistical jodel lne=of= the= import~nt= steps= in= st~tistic~ä= science= is= the=construction=of=

prob~biäistic=modeä= th~t= represent=or= sufficientäy=~pproxim~teI= the= true=

gener~ting= mech~nism= of= ~= phenomenon= under= studyK= qhe=

construction= of= such= modeä= is= b~sed= on= prob~biäistic= ~nd= äogic~ä=

~rguments=concerning=the=n~ture=~nd=function=of=~=given=phenomenonK==

iet=us= ~ssume= th~t= ~= r~ndom=v~ri~bäe= vI= c~ääed= the= responseI=which=

foääows=~=prob~biäistic=ruäe=with=prob~biäity=function=fEy|θFI=where=θ=is=the=

p~r~meter= vectorK= Consider= ~n= independentI= identic~ääy= distributed=

EiKiKdF =s~mpäe =y =Z =xyNI =yOI =… =ynzq= of= size= n= of= this= v~ri~bäeX= where= ^q=

denotes=the=tr~nspose=of=~=vector=or=m~trix=^K=the=joint=distribution==

= = = =

fEy|θF = Π fEyi|θF i=N

n

NRN

is= c~ääed= the= äikeäihood= of= the= modeä= ~nd= cont~ins= the= ~v~iä~bäe=

inform~tion=provided=by=the=observed=s~mpäeK==

rsu~ääy=modeäs=~re=constructed= in=order= to=~ssess=or= interpret= c~us~ä=

reä~tionships= between= the= response= v~ri~bäe= v= ~nd= v~rious=

ch~r~cteristics=expressed=~s=v~ri~bäes=ujI= j=Є=sI= c~ääed= the=cov~ri~tes=

or= the= expä~n~tory= v~ri~bäesX= j= indic~tes= ~= cov~ri~te= or= ~= modeä= term=

~nd= s= indic~tes= the=set=of= ~ää= the= terms=under= consider~tionK= fn= such=

c~sesI=the=expä~n~tory=v~ri~bäes=~re=äinked=with=the=response=v~ri~bäes=

vi~=~=deterministic=function=~nd=p~rt=of=the=origin~ä=p~r~meter=vector=is=

substituted= by= ~n= ~ätern~tive= set= of= p~r~meters= denoted= by= β= th~t=

usu~ääy= enc~psuä~tes= the= effect= of= e~ch= cov~ri~te= on= the= response=

v~ri~bäeK=cor=ex~mpäe=in=~=norm~ä=regression=modeä=with=y=~=kEXβ,σOf=F=

the=p~r~meter=vector=is=given=by=θq=Z=xβqI=σOz==

TWP Bayes Theorem iet= us= consider= two= possibäe= outcomes= ^= ~nd= _K= joreoverI= ~ssume=

th~t=^=Z=^N=r=^O=…KK=^n=for=which=^i ∩=^j=Z=Φ=for=every=i=≠=jK=qhen=_~yes=

theorem= provides= ~n= expression= for= the= condition~ä= prob~biäity= of= ^i=

given=_I=which=is=equ~ä=to==

mEAi | BF = α mEB|AF pEAF

qhe=~bove=equ~tion= is=c~ääed=the=_~yes=ruäeK=^ssume=th~t=_= is= fin~ääy=

observed=outcome=~nd=th~t=by=^iI=one=c~n=denote=the=possibäe=c~uses=

th~t=provokes=_K=qhen=mE_|^iF=c~n=be=interpreted=~s=the=prob~biäity=th~t=

_=wiää=~ppe~r=when=^i=c~use=is=present=whiäe=mE^i|_F=is= the=prob~biäity=

mEB|AiF mEAiF

mEBF

NRO

th~t=^i= is=responsibäe= for= the=occurrence=of=_=th~t= =h~ve=been=~äre~dy=

observedK=

_~yesi~n=inference=is=b~sed=on=this=r~tion~äeK=qhe=preceding=equ~tionI=

which= ~t= ~= first= gä~nce= is= simpäeI= offers= ~= prob~biäistic= mech~nism=of=

äe~rning= from= d~t~K= eence= ~fter= observing= the= d~t~= EyNI =yOI =…K =ynFI=

which=combines=prior=~nd=d~t~=inform~tionK=qhe=posterior=distribution=is=

the=key=eäement=in=_~yesi~n=inferenceK=

TWQ jodel Based Bayesian fnference _~yesi~n= st~tistics= differ= from= the= cä~ssic~ä= theory= since= ~ää= unknown=

p~r~meters=~re=considered=~s=r~ndom=v~ri~bäesK=cor=this=re~sonI=prior=

distribution= must= be= defined= initi~ääyK= qhis= prior= distribution= expresses=

the=inform~tion=~v~iä~bäe=to=the=rese~rcher=before=~ny=d~t~=~re=invoäved=

in= the= st~tistic~ä= ~n~äysisK= fnterest= äies= in= the= c~äcuä~tion= of= posterior=

distribution= fEθ|yF= of= the= p~r~meters= θ= given= by= the= observed= d~t~= yK=

~ccording= to= _~yes= theoremI= the= posterior= distribution= c~n= be=

expressed=~s==

fEθ|yF = α fEθ|yFfEθF

qhe= posterior= distribution= embodies= both= prior= ~nd= observed= d~t~=

inform~tionI= which= is= expressed= by= the= posterior= distribution= fEθF= ~nd=

the=äikeäihood=respectiveäyK=

cEy|θF = Π fEyi| θFI

fEθ|yFfEθF

cEyF

i=N

n

NRP

=ppecific~tion= of= the= prior= distribution= is= import~nt= in= _~yesi~n=

inferenceK= pince= it= infäuence= the= posterior= inferenceK= rsu~ääyI=

specific~tion=of=the=prior=me~n=~nd=v~ri~nce=us=emph~sizedK=qhe=prior=

me~n= provides= ~= prior= me~n= estim~te= for= the= p~r~meter= of= interestI=

whiäe=the=v~ri~nce=expresses=our=uncert~inty=concerning=this=estim~teK=

then=oneI=~=prior=strongäy=beäieve=th~t=this=estim~te=is=~ccur~teI=then=

the= v~ri~nce= must= be= set= äowI= whiäe= ignor~nce= or= gre~t= uncert~inty=

concerning= prior= me~n= c~n= be= expressed= by= ä~rge= v~ri~nceK= ff= prior=

inform~tion= is=~v~iä~bäeI= it=shouäd=be=~ppropri~teäy=summ~rized=by=the=

prior= distributionK= qhis= procedure= is= c~ääed= eäicit~tion= of= the= prior=

knowäedgeK=rsu~ääy= no= prior= inform~tion= is= ~v~iä~bäeK= fn= this=c~se=one=

need= to=specify=~=prior= th~t=wiää=not= infäuence= the=posterior=distribution=

~nd=äet=the=d~t~=spe~k=for=themseävesK=puch=distributions=~re=c~ääed=~s=

non=inform~tive=distributions=or=v~gue=prior=distributionsK==

lne=c~n=use=_~yes=ruäe= to= infer= for=~ny=p~r~meter=of= interest=θ=even=

when= the= observed= d~t~= ~re= coääected= sequenti~ääy= ~t= different= time=

pointsK=_efore=~ny=d~t~=~re=~v~iä~bäeI=use=onäy=prior=distribution=fEθF=for=

inferenceK=then= ~= set= of= d~t~= y= is= observedI= one= c~n= use= posterior=

distribution=fEθ|=yENFF=α=fEyENF|θFfEθFK=then=the=second=set=is=~v~iä~bäeI=one=

c~n=use=the=posterior=distribution=from=the=first=inst~nce=~s=~=prior=~nd=

incorpor~te=the=new=d~t~=in=~=new=upd~ted=posterior=distributionK==

fEθ| yEOFI yENFF α fEyEOF|θF fEyENF|θFfEθF

qhus=in=~=gener~ä=w~yI=the=equ~tion=c~n=be=written=~s=

fEθ| yENFI yEOFI …K yEtFF α Π fEyEkF|θFfEθFK

NRQ

there= it= is= obvious= th~t= _~yesi~n= theory= provides= ~n= e~u= to= use=

mech~nism= to= upd~te= our= knowäedge= concerning= the= p~r~meters= of=

interest=θK=

fn=order=to=compäete=the=definition=of=~=_~yesi~n=modeäI=both=the=prior=

distribution=~nd=the=äikeäihood=must=be=fuääy=specifiedK=e~ving=specified=

these= two= componentsI= then= focus= on= describing= the= posterior=

distribution=using=density=päots=~nd=descriptive=me~suresK==

lne=m~y=divide=the=whoäe=procedure=into=four=st~gesW=modeä=buiädingI=

c~äcuä~tion=of=posterior=distributionI=~n~äysis=of=the=posterior=distribution=

~nd=inferenceK=fn=the=first=st~geI=one=need=to=consider=~=modeäI=th~t=is=

äikeäihoodLp~r~metersLpriorF= with= re~son~bäe= ~ssumptionsK= fn= the=

second= st~geI= c~äcuä~te= posterior= distribution= of= interest= with= ~n=

~ppropri~te= methodK= qhen= focus= on= the= posterior= ~n~äysis= using=

descriptive= me~suresI= figures= ~nd= credibäe= interv~äsK= cin~ääy= one= c~n=

dr~w= concäusions= concerning= the= probäem= which= one= is= de~äing= withK=

qhe=procedure=is=outäine=beäowK=

NK= fdentify=the=v~ri~bäe=of=the=probäem=c~ääed=the=response=v~ri~bäe=

v=~nd=its=corresponding=d~t~K==

OK= cind=the=distribution=th~t=~dequ~teäy=describes=v=

PK= fdentify=other=v~ri~bäes=th~t=m~y=infäuence=v=c~ääed=~s=cov~ri~tes=

or=expä~n~tory=v~ri~bäesK==

QK= _uiäd=~=structure=for=the=p~r~meters=of=the=distribution=

RK= ppecify=the=prior=distribution==

SK= trite=down=the=äikeäihood=of=the=modeä=

NRR

fn= the= second= st~geI= identify= first= the= method= of= c~äcuä~tion= of= the=

posterior= distribution= whether= ~n~äytic~ääyI= ~symptotic~ääy= or= using=

simuä~tion= techniques= ~nd= then= impäement= the= seäected= method= to=

estim~te=the=posterior=distributionK=

^n=import~nt=~spect=of=_~yesi~n=~n~äysis= is=th~t=it=provides=~=re~äistic=

~nd= str~ight= forw~rd= theoretic~ä= fr~me= for= the= prediction= of= future=

observ~tions=through=predictive=distributionK==

TWR fnference rsing Conjugate mrior aistribution ^=prior=distribution=th~t=is=~=member=of= the=distribution~ä= f~miäy=a=with=

p~r~meters= α= is= conjug~te= to= the= distribution= fEy|θF= if= the= resuäting=

posterior=distribution=fEθ|yF=is=~äso=~=member=of=the=s~me=distribution~ä=

f~miäyK=qherefore==

= = ff=θ=~=aEαF=then=θ|y=~===aE=α=FI=

there=α=~nd=α=~re= the=prior=~nd=posterior= p~r~meters=of=aK= fn= m~ny=

simpäe= c~sesI= the= posterior= p~r~meters= ~re= expressed= ~s= weighted=

me~ns=of=the=prior=p~r~meters=~nd=the=m~ximum=äikeäihood=estim~torsK=

TWS fntroduction To jarkov Chain

_efore= introducing= the= jetropoäisJe~stings= ~ägorithm= ~nd= the= dibbs=

s~mpäerI=~=few=introductory=comments=on=j~rkov=ch~ins=~re= in=orderK=

iet=ut=denote=the=v~äue=of=~=r~ndom=v~ri~bäe=~t=time=tI=~nd=äet=the=st~te

sp~ce refer=to=the=r~nge=of=possibäe=u v~äuesK=qhe=r~ndom=v~ri~bäe=is=~=

j~rkov=process if= the= tr~nsition=prob~biäities=between=different= v~äues=

in=the=st~te=sp~ce=depend=onäy=on=the=r~ndom=v~ri~bäe’s=current=st~teI=

iKeKI=

NRS

qhus=for=~=j~rkov=r~ndom=v~ri~bäe=the=onäy=inform~tion=~bout=the=p~st=

needed=to=predict=the=future=is=the=current=st~te=of=the=r~ndom=v~ri~bäeI=

knowäedge=of= the=v~äues=of=e~räier=st~tes=do=not=ch~nge=the=tr~nsition=

prob~biäityK=^=j~rkov=ch~in= refers= to=~= sequence=of= r~ndom=v~ri~bäes=

EuMX= ¢= ¢= ¢XunF= gener~ted= by= ~= j~rkov= processK= ^= p~rticuä~r= ch~in= is=

defined= most= critic~ääy= by= its= tr~nsition= prob~biäities= Eor= the= tr~nsition=

kerneäFI=mEiX =jF=Z=mEi=!= jFI=which=is=the=prob~biäity=th~t=~=process=~t=st~te=

sp~ce=si=moves=to=st~te=sj=in=~=singäe=stepI=

lne=wiää=often=use=the=not~tion=mEi=======jFto=impäy=~=move=from=i=to=jI=~s=

m~ny=texts=define=mEiX=jF=Z=mEj=======iFI=so=use=the=~rrow=not~tion=to=~void=

confusionK=

iet=

denote=the=prob~biäity=th~t=the=ch~in= is=in=st~te= j=~t=time= tI=~nd=äet=¼EtF=

denote=the=row=vector=of=the=st~te=sp~ce=prob~biäities=~t=step=tK=lne=c~n=

st~rt= the= ch~in= by= specifying= ~= st~rting= vector= ¼EMFK= lften= ~ää= the=

eäements= of= ¼EMF= ~re= zero= except= for= ~= singäe= eäement= of= NI=

corresponding= to= the= process= st~rting= in= th~t= p~rticuä~r= st~teK= ^s= the=

ch~in= progressesI= the= prob~biäity= v~äues= get= spre~d= out= over= the=

possibäe=st~te=sp~ceK=

NRT

qhe=prob~biäity=th~t=the=ch~in=h~s=st~te=v~äue=si=~t=time=Eor=stepF=t=H=N=is=

given= by= the= Ch~pm~nJhoäomogrov= equ~tionI= which= sums= over= the=

prob~biäity= of= being= in= ~= p~rticuä~r= st~te= ~t= the= current= step= ~nd= the=

tr~nsition=prob~biäity=from=th~t=st~te=into=st~te=siI=

puccessive=iter~tion=of=the=Ch~pm~nJhoäomogrov=equ~tion=describes=

the=evoäution=of=the=ch~inK=

lne=c~n=more=comp~ctäy=write=the=Ch~pm~nJhoäomogrov=equ~tions=in=

m~trix=form=~s=foääowsK=aefine=the=prob~biäity=tr~nsition=m~trix=m ~s=the=

m~trix=whose=iI=jth=eäement=is=mEiX=jFI=the=prob~biäity=of=moving=from=st~te=

i=to=st~te=jI=mEi=!=jFK=

Ekote=this=impäies=th~t=the=rows=sum=to=oneI=~s==

qhe=Ch~pm~nJhoäomogrov=equ~tion=becomes=

rsing= the= m~trix= formI= immedi~teäy= see= how= to= quickäy= integr~te= the=

Ch~pm~nJ=hoägomorov=equ~tionI=~s=

Continuing=in=this=f~shion=shows=th~t=

NRU

aefining=the=nJstep=tr~nsition=prob~biäity=pijEnF===~s=the=prob~biäity=th~t=the=

process=is=in=st~te=j=given=th~t=it=st~rted=in=st~te=i=n=steps=~goI=iKKeKI=

it=immedi~teäy=foääows=th~t=pEnF=ij=is=just=the=ijJth=eäement=of=mnK=

cin~ääyI=~=j~rkov=ch~in=is=s~id=to=be=irreducibäe if=there=exists=~=positive=

integer=such=th~t=pEnij=F=ij=>=M=for=~ää=iX=jK=qh~t=isI=~ää=st~tes=communic~te

with=e~ch=otherI=~s=one=c~n=~äw~ys=go=from=~ny=st~te=to=~ny=other=st~te=

E~äthough=it=m~y=t~ke=more=th~n=one=stepFK=iikewiseI=~=ch~in=is=s~id=to=

be=~periodic when=the=number=of=steps=required=to=move=between=two=

st~tes=Es~y=x=~nd=yF=is=not=required=to=be=muätipäe=of=some=integerK=mut=

~nother= w~yI= the= ch~in= is= not= forced= into= some= cycäe= of= fixed= äength=

between=cert~in=st~tesK=

TWT jarkov chain jonte Carlo EjCjCF= Algorithms in

Bayesian fnference

TWTWN jarkov Chain jonte Carlo jethods=

qhese=methods= Ewhich=incäude= random walk jonte Carlo=methodsFI=

~re= ~= cä~ss= of= ~ägorithms= for= s~mpäing= from= prob~biäity= distributions=

b~sed=on=constructing=~=j~rkov=ch~in=th~t=h~s=the=desired=distribution=

~s= its= equiäibrium= distributionK= qhe= st~te= of= the= ch~in= ~fter= ~= ä~rge=

number=of=steps=is=then=used=~s=~=s~mpäe=from=the=desired=distributionK=

qhe= qu~äity= of= the= s~mpäe= improves= ~s= ~= function= of= the= number= of=

stepsK=

NRV

rsu~ääy= it= is= not= h~rd= to= construct= ~= j~rkov= Ch~in= with= the= desired=

propertiesK=qhe=more=difficuät=probäem=is=to=determine=how=m~ny=steps=

~re= needed= to= converge= to= the= st~tion~ry= distribution= within= ~n=

~ccept~bäe=errorK=^=good=ch~in= wiää=h~ve= r~pid= mixingµthe=st~tion~ry=

distribution= is= re~ched= quickäy= st~rting= from= ~n= ~rbitr~ry= positionµ

described=further=under=j~rkov=ch~in=mixing=timeK=

qypic~ä= use= of= jCjC= s~mpäing= c~n= onäy= ~pproxim~te= the= t~rget=

distributionI= ~s= there= is= ~äw~ys= some= residu~ä= effect= of= the= st~rting=

positionK=jore=sophistic~ted=jCjCJb~sed=~ägorithms=such=~s=coupäing=

from= the= p~st= c~n= produce= ex~ct= s~mpäesI= ~t= the= cost= of= ~ddition~ä=

comput~tion= ~nd=~n=unbounded= Ethough= finite= in= expect~tionF= running=

timeK=

qhe= most= common= ~ppäic~tion= of= these= ~ägorithms= is= numeric~ääy=

c~äcuä~ting=muätiJdimension~ä=integr~äsK=fn=these=methodsI=~n=ensembäe=

of= ?w~äkers?=moves=~round=r~ndomäyK=^t=e~ch=point=where= the=w~äker=

stepsI=the=integr~nd=v~äue=~t=th~t=point=is=counted=tow~rds=the=integr~äK=

qhe= w~äker= then= m~y= m~ke= ~= number= of= tent~tive= steps= ~round= the=

~re~I= äooking= for= ~= pä~ce= with= re~son~bäy= high= contribution= to= the=

integr~ä=to=move=into=nextK=o~ndom=w~äk=methods=~re=~=kind=of=r~ndom=

simuä~tion= or= jonte= C~räo= methodK= eoweverI= where~s= the= r~ndom=

s~mpäes= of= the= integr~nd= used= in= ~= convention~ä= jonte= C~räo=

integr~tion= ~re= st~tistic~ääy= independentI= those= used= in= jCjC= ~re=

correä~tedK=^=j~rkov=ch~in=is=constructed=in=such=~=w~y=~s=to=h~ve=the=

NSM

integr~nd=~s=its=equiäibrium=distributionK=purprisingäyI=this= is=often=e~sy=

to=doK=

juätiJdimension~ä= integr~äs= often= ~rise= in= _~yesi~n= st~tisticsI=

comput~tion~ä= physicsI= comput~tion~ä= bioäogy= ~nd= comput~tion~ä=

äinguisticsI= so=j~rkov= ch~in=jonte=C~räo=methods= ~re= wideäy=used= in=

those=fieädsK==

TWTWO jonte Carlo fntegration=

qhe= origin~ä= jonte Carlo ~ppro~ch= w~s= ~= method= deveäoped= by=

physicists= to= use= r~ndom= number= gener~tion= to= compute= integr~äsK=

puppose=one=wish=to=compute=~=compäex=integr~ä=

= =

=

ff=one=c~n=decompose=hExF=into=the=production=of=~=function=fExF=~nd=~=

prob~biäity=density=function=pExF=defined=over=the=interv~ä=E~X=bFI=then=

note=th~t=

so=th~t=the=integr~ä=c~n=be=expressed=~s=~n=expect~tion=of=fExF=over=the=

density=pExFK= qhusI= if=one= c~n=dr~w=~= ä~rge=number= xNX= ¢= ¢= ¢= X= xn= of=

r~ndom=v~ri~bäes=from=the=density=pExFI=then=

NSN

qhis=is=referred=to=~s=jonte Carlo integrationK=

jonte= C~räo= integr~tion= c~n= be= used= to= ~pproxim~te= posterior= Eor=

m~rgin~ä= posteriorF= distributions= required= for= ~= _~yesi~n= ~n~äysisK=

Consider=the=integr~ä=

=

which=is=~pproxim~ted=by=

where=xi=~re=dr~ws= from=the=density=pExFK=qhe=estim~ted=jonte=C~räo=

st~nd~rd=error is=given=by=

TWTWP fmportance pampling

puppose=the=density=pExF=roughäy=~pproxim~tes=the=density=Eof=interestF=

qExFI=then=

NSO

qhis=forms=the=b~sis=for=the=method=of=import~nce s~mpäingI=with=

where=the=xi=~re=dr~wn=from=the=distribution=given=by=pExFK=cor=ex~mpäeI=

if= one= is= interested= in= ~= m~rgin~ä=density= ~s=~= function= of= yI= gEyF =Z =o =

fEyjxFqExFdxI=it=c~n=be=~pproxim~ted=this=by=

where=xi=~re=dr~wn=from=the=~pproxim~ting=density=pK=

^n=~ätern~tive=formuä~tion=of=import~nce=s~mpäing=is=to=use=

where= xi= ~re= dr~wn= from= the= density= pExFK= qhis= h~s= ~n= ~ssoci~ted=

jonte=C~räo=v~ri~nce=of=

NSP

TWU dibbs pampling

fn= m~them~ticsI= dibbs= s~mpäing= or= dibbs= s~mpäer= is= ~n= ~ägorithm= to=

gener~te=~= sequence=of=s~mpäes= from=the= joint= prob~biäity=distribution=

of=two=or=more=r~ndom=v~ri~bäesK=qhe=purpose=of=such=~=sequence=is=to=

~pproxim~te=the=joint=distributionI=or=to=compute=~n=integr~ä=Esuch=~s=~n=

expected=v~äueFK=dibbs=s~mpäing= is=~=speci~ä= c~se=of= the=jetropoäis–

e~stings= ~ägorithmI= ~nd= thus= ~n= ex~mpäe= of= ~= j~rkov= ch~in= jonte=

C~räo=~ägorithmK=qhe=~ägorithm=is=n~med=~fter=the=physicist=gK=tK=dibbsI=

in= reference= to= ~n= ~n~äogy= between= the= s~mpäing= ~ägorithm= ~nd=

st~tistic~ä=physicsK=qhe=~ägorithm=w~s=described=by=brothers=ptu~rt=~nd=

aon~äd= dem~n= in= NVUQI= some= eight= dec~des= ~fter= the= p~ssing= of=

dibbsK==

dibbs= s~mpäing= is= ~ppäic~bäe= when= the= joint= distribution= is= not= known=

expäicitäy= or= is= difficuät= to= s~mpäe= from= directäyI= but= the= condition~ä=

distribution=of=e~ch=v~ri~bäe=is=known=~nd=is=e~sy=to=s~mpäe=fromK=qhe=

dibbs=s~mpäing=~ägorithm=gener~tes=~n=inst~nce=from=the=distribution=of=

e~ch= v~ri~bäe= in= turnI= condition~ä= on= the= current= v~äues= of= the= other=

v~ri~bäesK=ft=c~n=be=shown=EseeI=for=ex~mpäeI=deäm~n=et=~äK=NVVRF=th~t=

the= sequence= of= s~mpäes= constitutes= ~= j~rkov= ch~inI= ~nd= the=

st~tion~ry=distribution=of=th~t=j~rkov=ch~in=is=just=the=soughtJ~fter=joint=

distributionK=

NSQ

dibbs= s~mpäing= is= p~rticuä~räy= weääJ~d~pted= to= s~mpäing= the= posterior=

distribution= of= ~= _~yesi~n= networkI= since= _~yesi~n= networks= ~re=

typic~ääy=specified=~s=~=coääection=of=condition~ä=distributionsK=

dibbs=s~mpäing=is=~=speci~ä=c~se=of=jetropoäis–e~stings=~ägorithmK=

qhe=point=of=dibbs=s~mpäing=is=th~t=given=~=muätiv~ri~te=distribution=it=is=

simpäer=to=s~mpäe=from=~=condition~ä=distribution=th~n=to=m~rgin~äize=by=

integr~ting=over=~=joint=distributionK=puppose=one=w~nt=to=obt~in=h=

s~mpäes=of=x=from=~=joint=distribution=pExIyFK=one=c~n=begin=with=~=v~äue=

of=yM=~nd=s~mpäe=x=by=x=~pEx|y===yiJNFK=lnce=th~t=v~äue=of=is=c~äcuä~tedI=

repe~t=by=s~mpäing=for=the=next==yW=yi=~=pEy|x===xiFK

puppose= th~t=~=s~mpäe=x= is= t~ken= from=~=distribution=depending=on=~=

p~r~meter=vector=θ=of=äength=d=with=prior=distribution=gEθNI=θOI=θdFK=ft=m~y=

be= th~t= d= is= very= ä~rge= ~nd= th~t= numeric~ä= integr~tion= to= find= the=

m~rgin~ä=densities=of=the=θi=wouäd=be=comput~tion~ääy=expensiveK=qhen=

~n=~ätern~tive=method=of=c~äcuä~ting=the=m~rgin~ä=densities=is=to=cre~te=

~=j~rkov=ch~in=on=the=sp~ce=Θ=by=repe~ting=these=two=stepsW=

NK= mick=~=r~ndom=index=N=≤=j=≤=d=

OK= mick=~=new=v~äue=for=θj=~ccording=to=gEθNI…θjJNI…Iθj+NI…IθdF=

qhese= steps= define= ~= reversibäe= j~rkov= ch~in= with= the= desired=

inv~ri~nt=distribution=gK==

NSR

TWV aeviance fnformation Criterion

qhe= devi~nce= inform~tion= criterion= EafCF= is= ~= hier~rchic~ä= modeäing=

gener~äiz~tion= of= the= ^fC= E^k~ike= inform~tion= criterionF= ~nd= _fC=

E_~yesi~n=inform~tion=criterionFI=~äso=known=~s=the=pchw~rz=criterionFK=

ft=is=p~rticuä~räy=usefuä=in=_~yesi~n=modeä=seäection=probäems=where=the=

posterior= distributions= of= the= modeäs= h~ve= been= obt~ined= by= j~rkov=

ch~in= jonte= C~räo= EjCjCF= simuä~tionK= iike= ^fC= ~nd= _fC= it= is= ~n=

~symptotic=~pproxim~tion=~s=the=s~mpäe=size=becomes=ä~rgeK=ft=is=onäy=

v~äid= when= the= posterior= distribution= is= ~pproxim~teäy= muätiv~ri~te=

norm~äK=

aevi~nce=fnform~tion=Criterion=is=defined=~s==

aEθF=Z=JO=äogEpEyІθFF=H=CI=

where=y=~re=the=d~t~I=θ=~re=the=unknown=p~r~meters=of=the=modeä==~nd=

pEyІθF= is= the= äikeäihood= functionK= C= is= const~nt= th~t= c~nceäs= out= in= ~ää=

c~äcuä~tions= th~t=comp~res=different=modeäI= ~nd=which= therefore=need=

not=to=be=knownK=

qhe=expect~tion=ab~r=Z=bθxaEθFz= is=~=me~sure=of=how=weää= the=modeä=

fits=the=d~t~I=the=ä~rger=this=is=the=worst=the=fitK=

qhe=effective=number=of=p~r~meters=of=the=modeä=is=counted=~s=

pa=Z=ab~r=–=aEθb~rF=

where=θb~r=is=the=expect~tion=of=θK=qhe=ä~rger=this=isI=the=e~sier=it=is=for=

the=modeä=to=fit=the=d~t~K=

qhe=aevi~nce=fnform~tion=Criterion=is=c~äcuä~ted=~s==

afC=Z=pa=H=ab~r=

NSS

qhe=ide~=is=th~t=modeäs=with=sm~ääer=afC=shouäd=be=preferred=to=modeäs=

with=ä~rger=afCK=jodeäs=~re=pen~äized=both=by=the=v~äue=of=ab~rI=which=

f~vors= ~= good= fitI= but= ~äso= Ein= common= with= ^fC= ~nd= _fCF= by= the=

effective= number= of= p~r~meters= pa= pince= ab~r= wiää= decre~se= ~s= the=

number=of=p~r~meters=in=~=modeä=incre~sesI=the=pa=term=compens~tes=

for=this=effect=by=f~voring=modeäs=with=~=sm~ääer=number=of=p~r~metersK=

qhe=~dv~nt~ge=of=afC=over=other=criteri~=in=the=c~se=of=_~yesi~n=modeä=

seäection= is= th~t= the= afC= is= e~siäy= c~äcuä~ted= from= the= s~mpäes=

gener~ted= by= ~= j~rkov= ch~in= jonte= C~räo= simuä~tionK= ^fC= ~nd= _fC=

require= c~äcuä~ting= the= äikeäihood=~t= its=m~ximum=over= θI= which= is=not=

re~diäy= ~v~iä~bäe= from= the= jCjC= simuä~tionK= _ut= to= c~äcuä~te= afCI=

simpäy= compute= ab~r= ~s= the= ~ver~ge= of= aEθF= over= the= s~mpäes= of= θI=

~nd=aEθb~rF=~s=the=v~äue=of=a=ev~äu~ted=~t=the=~ver~ge=of=the=s~mpäes=

of=θK=qhen=the=afC=foääows=directäy=from=these=~pproxim~tionsK=

TWNM tinBrdp poftware

tin_rdp= is= progr~mming= ä~ngu~ge= b~sed= softw~re= th~t= is= used= to=

gener~te= ~= r~ndom= s~mpäe= from= the= posterior= distribution= of= the=

p~r~meters=of=~=_~yesi~n=modeäK=qhe=user=onäy=h~s=to=specify=the=d~t~I=

the=structure=of=the=modeä=under=consider~tionI=~nd=some=initi~ä=v~äues=

of=the=modeä=p~r~metersK=qhe=~cronym=_rdp=st~nds=for=the=initi~äs=of=

the=phr~se=“_~yesi~n=fnference=rsing=dibbs=p~mpäing≤K=

NST

TWNMWN A phort aescription of jenus

qhe= menus= of= tin_rdp= ~re= c~tegorized= ~ccording= to= their=

function~äity=which=~re=described=beäowK=

NK= _~sic=lper~tions=–=ciäeI=tindow=~nd=eeäp=

OK= ciäe=bditing=lper~tions=–=qooäsI=bdit=~nd=qext=

PK= jCjC=functions=–=fnfoI=jodeäI=fnference=~nd=lptions=

QK= ppeci~äized=lper~tions=–=aoodäe=~nd=j~p=

ciäeI=tindow=~nd=eeäp=menus=refer=to=the=functions=th~t=~re=common=to=

~ää= softw~reK=qhe=ciäe=jenu=provides=~ää= fiäe=h~ndäing=c~p~biäitiesK=qhe=

tindows=jenu=controäs=~ää=the=windows=within=tin_rdpK==

ciäe= editing=oper~tions= ~re=performed=by= menu=qooäsI= bditI=^ttributed=

~nd= qextK= ^ää= fiäes= edited= in= tin_rdp= c~n= be= s~ved= ~s= compound=

document= fiäes= th~t= h~ve=~n= odc=suffixK=qext= ~s=weää= ~s=gr~phics=~nd=

päots= produced= by= tin_rdp= c~n= be= s~ved= in= such= fiäesK= qhe= qooäs=

menu= provides= comm~nds= for= m~n~ging= ~nd= editing= compound=

document= fiäesI= incäuding= encodeLdecode= comm~nds= used= to= run=

softw~re=upgr~desK==

fn= the= third= c~tegory= of= menusI= jCjC= –= reä~ted= menus= fnfoI= jodeäI=

fnference= ~nd= lptions= ~re= incäudedK= qhe= fnfo= menu= provides=

inform~tion= concerning= the= st~tus= of= the= current= modeä= ~nd= its=

componentsK= ft=c~n=be=used= to=open=~nd=cäe~r= äog= fiäe= or=windowK=_y=

def~uät= tin_rdp= opens= ~n= output= window= th~t= c~n= be= s~ved= ~s= ~n=

odc= fiäeK=rsing=kode= fnfoI= the= user= c~n= monitor= the=current= v~äues=of=

~ny= component= of= the= modeäEr~ndom= or= const~ntFK= cin~ääy= using= the=

NSU

component=comm~ndI=one=c~n=monitor=how=m~ny=tin_rdp=moduäes=

~re=currentäy=~ctiveK=

TWNMWO Compiling the jodel and pimulating salues

^fter=writing=the=fuää=codeI=the=d~t~=~nd=the=initi~ä=v~äues=in=the=odc=fiäeI=

one=need= to=compiäe=~nd= run= the=modeäK=qhis=procedure= is=described=

beäowK==

NK= lpen=jodeä=ppecific~tion=tooä=

coääow=the=p~th=jodeä=[=ppecific~tionK=qhe=modeä=specific~tion=tooä=

~ppe~rs=on= the= screenK=qhis= tooä= incäudes= ~ää= the= b~sic=oper~tions=

needed=to=initi~äize=the=jCjC=~ägorithm=~nd=specify=the=number=of=

ch~ins=th~t=one=wish=to=gener~teK=

OK= Check=jodeä’s=synt~x=

eighäight= the= comm~nd= modeä= ~nd= press= check= modeä= box= of= the=

modeä=specific~tion=tooäK=tin_rdp=check=the=modeä=synt~x=st~rting=

from=the=first=ch~r~cter=of=the=highäighted=comm~ndK=ff=~=probäem=in=

the=synt~x=existsI=then=~n=indic~tion=is=given=in=the=äowest=äeft=of=the=

tin_rdp=window=whiäe=the=cursor= is=pä~ced=~t=the=äoc~tion=where=

error= w~s= detectedK= ltherwise= ~= mess~ge= ~ppe~rs= “qhe= modeä= is=

synt~ctic~ääy=correct≤K=

PK= io~d=d~t~=

eighäight= the=word= “iist≤= in= the=d~t~= äist= form~t=~nd=press= the= äo~d=

d~t~=box=of=the=modeä=specific~tion=tooäK==ff=the=set=of=d~t~=is=äo~ded=

successfuääyI= then= the= mess~ge= ~ppe~rs= “a~t~= äo~ded≤I= otherwise=

~n=error=mess~ge=wiää=~ppe~r=in=the=window=beäowK==

QK= Compiäe=modeä=

NSV

^fter= ~ää= the=d~t~= ~re= äo~dedI=press= the= compiäe= box= in= the= modeä=

specific~tion= tooäK= ff= the= compiä~tion= is= successfuäI= the= mess~ge=

~ppe~rs=“=jodeä=compiäed≤I=otherwise=~n=error=wiää=~ppe~rK==

RK= pet=initi~ä=v~äues=

fniti~ä=v~äues=~re=set=by=foääowing=the=~=procedure=simiä~r=to=the=one=

used=for=d~t~=beäowK=eighäight=the=word=äist=~nd=then=press=the=äo~d=

inits=box= in= the=modeä= specific~tion= tooäK= ff=~ää= the= initi~ä=v~äues=~re=

successfuääy= äo~ded= the= mess~ge= ~ppe~rs= “= jodeä= initi~äized≤K= fn=

c~se=the=initi~ä=v~äues=~re=not=specified=for=some=stoch~stic=nodesI=

the= mess~ge= “qhe= ch~in= cont~ins= uniniti~äized= v~ri~bäes≤= is=

dispä~yedK= fn= this= c~seI= one= c~n= gener~te= r~ndom= v~äues= for= the=

rem~ining=nodes=by=“get=inits≤=boxK==

SK= oun= the=jCjC=~ägorithm=–=gener~te= r~ndom=v~ri~bäes= Eburnin=

periodF=

coääow=the=p~th=jodeä=[=rpd~te=to=open=the=upd~te=tooäK=qhis=tooä=

h~s=the=foääowing=fe~turesK==

~K= rpd~tesW=qhis= refers= to= the= number= of= ~ddition~ä= iter~tions= one=

w~nt=to=gener~te=~nd=storeK=

bK= oefreshW=qhis= refers= to= the=number=of= iter~tions= th~t=tin_rdp=

wiää= use= to= refresh= the=current= iter~tion= index= in= the=upd~te= tooä=

~nd= upd~te= the= onäine= tr~ce= päots= th~t= ~re= ~v~iä~bäe= vi~= the=

p~mpäe= jonitor= qooäK= rsing= sm~ää= refresh= v~äues= is= usefuä= for=

monitoring=the=ch~in=~nd=for=stopping=or=p~using=the=~ägorithmK=

qhe= refresh= v~äue= must= be= ch~nged= ~ccording= to= the= current=

jCjC= ~ägorithmK= cor= simpäe= modeäs= ä~rge= refresh= v~äues= ~re=

NTM

recommendedI=whiäe=for=compäic~ted=modeäsI=äow=refresh=v~äues=

~re=recommendedK==

cK= rpd~te= _uttonW= mressing= this= wiää= gener~te= ~ddition~ä= iter~tions=

equ~ä=to=the=number=defined=in=the=rpd~te=boxK==

dK= qhinW=qhis=defines=the= thin=Eä~gF=of= the=iter~tions=keptK=eenceI=if=

one=set=the=~ddition~ä=upd~tes=equ~ä= to=q’=~nd=the=thin=equ~ä= to=

kI= then= tin_rdp= wiää= gener~te= k= x= q’= iter~tions= but= wiää= store=

onäy=the=ä~st=one=in=every=sequence=of=k=gener~ted=v~äuesK=

eK= fter~tionW=qhis=is=the=visu~ä=counter=of=the=current=iter~tion=of=the=

~ägorithmK= qhus= if= the= counter= is= equ~ä= to= q’= iter~tions= ~nd= the=

thin=is=specified=equ~ä=to=kI=then=the=~ctu~ä=number=of=gener~ted=

v~äues=wiää=be=k=x=q’K=

fK= lverreä~xW= qhe= ~ppro~ch= is= fe~sibäe= to= reduce= high=

~utocorreä~tionsK=

gK= ^d~ptingW= qhe= box= is= ticked= during= the= tuning= period= when=

jetropoäis=or=the=säice=s~mpäer=~ägorithms=~re=usedK==

TK= pet=the=p~r~meters=which=~re=to=be=monitoredW=

coääow= the= p~th= fnference= [= p~mpäes= to= open= the= s~mpäe=

monitor= tooäK=lne=then=c~n=write=the=n~me=of= the=p~r~meter=he=

wishes= to= monitor= ~nd= then= press= the= set= buttonK= rsing= the=

procedure= described= ~boveI= one= c~n= specify= the= p~r~meters=

whose=posterior=distribution=he=wish= to=estim~te=vi~=the=jCjC=

gener~ted=v~äuesK=qhe=simuä~ted=v~äues=of=these=p~r~meters=wiää=

be=now=stored=in=order=to=produce=~=det~iäed=posterior=~n~äysisK=

UK= rpd~te=the=jCjC=~ägorithm=

NTN

^fter= setting= the= p~r~meters= one= wish= to= monitorI= he= then= c~n=

upd~te= the= jCjC= s~mpäer= by= repe~ting= the= procedure=

described=in=step=SK=^fter=setting=the=p~r~meters=of=interest=~nd=

gener~ting= ~ddition~ä= r~ndom= v~äuesI= one= c~n= monitor= the=

posterior=distribution=by=extr~cting= the=posterior=summ~ries=~nd=

päotsK=

TWNMWP Basic lutput Analyses rsing the pample jonitor

Tool

qhe= m~in= tooä= for= output= ~n~äysis= is= the= p~mpäe= jonitor= qooäK= ft=

provides= ~= v~riety= of= options= for= simpäe= output= ~n~äysis= of= the= stored=

r~ndom=v~äuesK=qhe=foääowing=choices=~re=~v~iä~bäeK=

NK= kode=_oxW=

fnsert=the=n~me=of=the=node=one=wish=to=monitor=

OK= Ch~in=_oxW=

ppecify=which=ch~ins=wiää=be=used=for=c~äcuä~tion=of=the=summ~ry=

st~tisticsK=

PK= _eg=~nd=bndW=

fter~tions=incäuded=in=the=posterior=~n~äysis=~re=decä~red=hereK=

QK= pet=_uttonW=

qhis=button=is=used=to=specify=which=nodes=one=wish=to=monitor=

~fter= the=current= st~te=of= the=~ägorithmK=s~äues=gener~ted=~fter=

pressing=the=set=button=~re=store=~nd=c~n=be=used=for=posterior=

~n~äysisK=

RK= qr~ce=_uttonW=

NTO

qhis=button=produces=onäine=päot=of=the=gener~ted=v~äues=~g~inst=

e~ch= iter~tion= numberK= moints= ~re= päotted= every= k= iter~tionX=

where= k= is= the= v~äue= decä~red= in= refresh= button= of= the= upd~te=

tooäK=qhis=päot=is=~äso=referred=to=~s=dyn~mic=tr~ce=päotK==

SK= aensity=_uttonW=

qhis= button= produces=~n=~pproxim~te= visu~ä=kerneä= estim~te=of=

the=posterior=density=or=prob~biäity=functionK==

TK= eistory=_uttonW=

thiäe= the= tr~ce= päot= provides= ~n= onäine= päot= of= the= v~äues=

gener~tedI= the= history= button= dr~ws= ~= fuää= tr~ce= päot= of= ~ää= the=

stored=v~äuesK=

UK= mercentiäesW=

fn= this= box= specify= which= posterior= percentiäes= one= wish= to=

c~äcuä~teK==

VK= pt~ts=_uttonW=

qhis= button= estim~tes= the= posterior= summ~ry= estim~tes= by= the=

jCjC=outputW=me~nI=st~nd~rd=devi~tionI=jonte=C~räo=errorI=~nd=

seäected= percentiäesK= ft= ~äso= cont~ins= the= det~iä= concerning= the=

number= of= iter~tions= disc~rded= ~s= burnin= period= ~nd= iter~tions=

fin~ääy=kept=for=estim~tionK=

NMK=bgr=di~g=_uttonW=

qhis= button= impäements= ~= modified= version= of= the= deäm~n= –=

oubin= convergence= di~gnostics= ~nd= c~n=be=~ppäied= onäy= when=

muätipäe=ch~ins=~re=usedK=

NNK=̂ uto=cor=buttonW=

NTP

qhis= button= päots= the= ~utoJcorreä~tions= of= the= ch~in= for= e~ch=

p~r~meter=of=interestK=

NTQ

Ch~pter U Constructing=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=m~rt=–=fff=

qhe Br~nd Choice jodel

UWN Accommod~ting eeuristics in Br~nd Choice

UWO Consumer’s Choice

UWP An bffort oeduction cr~mework

UWQ keed to Accommod~te eeuristics in Br~nd Choice

UWR qhe pt~tistic~l jodel for Br~nd Choice

UWS qhe eeterogeneity

UWT lther pt~tistic~l aistributions

UWU lccurrence

UWV a~t~ Collection

UWNM bstim~tion of jodel m~r~meters

NTR

Ch~pter U Constructing=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=m~rt=–=fff=

qhe Br~nd Choice jodel

The Brand Choice jodel

cig UWN

UWN Accommodating eeuristics in Brand Choice

qhere= is= enough= evidence= th~t= consumers= m~ke= use= of= heuristics= to=

de~ä=with=the=myri~d=of=compäex=steps=in=the=decision=m~king=processK=

qhey=~re=~=method=of=soäving=probäems=or=situ~tions=where=no=formuä~=

existsK=eeuristics=~re=good=~t=times=but=the=b~d=side=of=it=is=when=they=

äe~d= m~rketers= ~str~yK= qhis= is= when= heuristics= infäuence= consumer’s=

judgment=to=the=point=of=bi~sK=

qhe=br~nd=choice=modeä=shown=in=fig=TWN=indic~tes=how=the=inform~tion=

set=of=the=consumer=is=upgr~ded=with=the=inform~tion=th~t=pours=into=his=

memoryK=qhe=modeä=~ccommod~tes=the=heuristics=process=used=by=the=

mromotion mrice Advertising

fnform~tion pet of Consumer

bxperience

mrevious murch~se

Current murch~se cuture murch~se

jent~l process th~t uses heuristics

NTS

consumers= to= simpäify= the= compäex= ruäe= used= in= the= decision= m~king=

processK= ^= st~tistic~ä= modeä= th~t= ~ccommod~tes= the= concept= of=

heuristics=is=deveäoped=to=predict=the=future=prob~biäity=of=purch~sing=of=

~=p~rticuä~r=detergent=br~nd=by=consumersK==

Consumers= äe~rn= ~bout= br~nd= qu~äity= through= four= ch~nneäsW= use=

experienceI= ~dvertising= content= sign~äsI= ~dvertising= intensity= sign~äs=

~nd=the=price=sign~äsK=^ää=these=four=sign~äs=upgr~de=inform~tion=which=

is=heäd=by=~=consumer=in=his=fnform~tion=petK=qhe=reä~tive=import~nce=of=

these= mech~nisms= h~s= import~nt= impäic~tions= for= how= consumer=

dem~nd= respond= to= price= ch~nges= ~nd= ch~nges= in= the= ~dvertising=

intensityK=b~räier=rese~rch=h~ve=estim~ted=modeäs=in=which=consumers=

use= ~= subset= of= the= ~bove= mentioned= four= qu~äity= sign~äing=

mech~nismsK= cor= inst~nceI= ooberts= ~nd= rrb~n= ENVUUFI= brdem= ~nd=

he~ne=ENVVSF=~nd=^n~nd=~nd=p~ch~r=EOMMMF=h~ve=estim~ted=modeäs=in=

which=~dvertising=content=~nd=use=experience==provide=consumers=with=

noisy= sign~äs= ~bout= br~nd= qu~äityK= quäin= brdemI= jich~eä= he~ne= ~nd=

_~ohong=pun=h~ve=incäuded=price=sign~äs=~s=weää=in=their=modeäK=_ut=~ää=

these= rese~rches= h~ve= not= considered= the= heuristics= process= th~t=

consumers=use=in=their=decision=m~kingK==

Current= rese~rch= indic~te= th~t= consumers= frequentäy= do= not= h~ve=

predefined= preferences= but= inste~d= construct= their= preferences= ~s=

needed= to= m~ke= their= choiceK= E_ettm~nI= iuceI= ~nd= m~yneI= NVVUFK=

_~sed=on=cert~in=heuristicsI=consumers=use=~=v~riety=of=choice=ruäes=to=

construct=their=preferencesK=qhe=use=of=different=ruäes=is=contingent=on=

v~rious=f~ctors=of=the=decision=probäem=such=~s=fr~mingI=context=etcK=of=

NTT

the= decision= m~ker= Em~yneI= _ettm~nI= ~nd= gohnson= NVVOI= NVVPFK= ^s=

mentioned=e~räierI=~=consumer=äe~rns=~bout=br~nd=qu~äity=through=four=

ch~nneäsW= use= experienceI= ~dvertising= content= sign~äsI= ~dvertising=

intensity=sign~äs=~nd=the=price=sign~äsK=qhe=consumer=receives=~ää=these=

sign~äs= of= the= m~ny= br~nds= ~v~iä~bäe= in= the= product= c~tegoryK= cor=

inst~nce=~=consumer=m~y=receive=sign~äs=for=detergents=äike=purfI=qideI=

~nd=^rieäK=qhe=consumer=receives=m~ny=sign~äs=th~t=try=to=upgr~de=his=

inform~tion=setK=_ut= these=sign~äs=m~y=not=upgr~de=the= inform~tion= to=

NMMB=~s=consumer=h~s=äimited=c~p~city=to=process=inform~tionK=^t=one=

point= in= timeI= he= c~n= think= ~nd= ~ttend= onäy= T= H= or= –= O= chunks= of=

inform~tionK=tith=such= äimited= c~p~city= to= process=d~t~I=he= resorts= to=

using=heuristics=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=~bout=~=br~nd=choiceK==

UWO Consumer’s Choice

Consumer= choice= invoäves= seäecting= one= product= from= ~= set= of=

possibiäitiesK=pometimes= choice= is= b~sed=on= judgment= –= if= consumers=

h~ve=more=f~vor~bäe=~ttitude=tow~rds=the=productI=they=~re=more=äikeäy=

to=choose=itK=eoweverI=~t=other=timesI=choice=is=~ttribute=–=b~sedK=cor=

ex~mpäe= “f= wiää= buy= the= äe~st= expensive= br~nd≤= is= ~ttribute= b~sed=

choosingK= rnderst~nding= consumer= choice= invoäves= underst~nding=

three=key=issuesW=wh~t=products=or=br~nds=~re=considered=for=purch~seI=

wh~t= inform~tion= is= used= to= detect= the= differences= ~mong= considered=

~ätern~tivesI=~nd=how=this=inform~tion=is=usedK==

NTU

UWOWN The Consideration pet of Consumer==

^=consider~tion=set=is=~=group=of=products=~=consumer=considers=when=

m~king= ~= purch~se= decisionK= Consider~tion= set= typic~ääy= r~nges= from=

one=br~nd=to=~bout=nineK=o~reäy=do=consumers=consider=more=th~n=nine=

br~ndsI=bec~use=of=äimited=processing=c~p~city=of=seven=päus=or=minus=

two=chunks=of=inform~tion=EjiääerFK=

UWOWO The fnformation pet of Consumer==

Consumer=receives=four=types=of=sign~äs=for=every=br~nd=he=hoäds=in=his=

consider~tion= set= n~meäy= use= experience= sign~äI= ~dvertising= content=

sign~äI=~dvertising=intensity=sign~äI=~nd=price=sign~äK=qhese=sign~äs=~re=

responsibäe= for= the= upgr~d~tion= of= inform~tion= of= the= consumerK=

Consumer’s=consider~tion=set=is=äikeäy=to=v~ry=over=timeI=depending=on=

how= m~ny= ~nd= wh~t= p~rticuä~r= br~nds= h~ppen= to= be= s~äientI= vividI= or=

~ssess~bäe=from=memory=~t=the=time=the=purch~se=decision=is=rendered=

depending= upon= the= sign~äs= received= by= himK= b~ch= time= ~= product=

choice=is=to=be=m~deI=the=consumer=refers=to=his=inform~tion=setK=

UWOWP rse of eeuristics by Consumers==

Consumers=~re=found=to=use=~nchoring=heuristics=whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=

choiceK=then=some=br~nds=~re=mentioned=during=the=memory=se~rchI=

the=mentioned=br~nds=~re=retrieved=repe~tedäyI=~nd=e~ch=time=they=~re=

retrieved= the= äikeäihood= of= retrieving= them=~g~in= incre~sesK=then= the=

s~me= br~nd= is= retrieved= over= ~nd= over= ~g~in= x= number= of= timesI=

consumers= erroneousäy=~ssume= they= h~ve=m~de= ~= thorough= memory=

se~rchI=~nd=the=retriev~ä=process=is=termin~ted=E~nchoringFK==

NTV

Av~il~bility=heuristics=h~s=been=~ppäied=to=m~rketing=~nd=~dvertising=to=

investig~te= the= effects= of= retriev~ä= on= the= subjective= ~ssessment= of=

product= f~iäureK=coäkes= ENVUUF= presents= four=studies= in= which=subjects=

were=~sked=to=predict=how=äikeäy=v~rious=products=were=to=f~iäK=aifferent=

scen~rios= ~nd= distinctive= br~nd= n~mes= were= used= to= m~ke= some=

products= or= inst~nces= more= memor~bäeK= coäkes= found= th~t= these=

judgments= were= bi~sed= in= w~ys= described= by= ~v~iä~biäity= heuristics= –=

th~t= more= memor~bäe= products= infäuenced= the= subjects’= decisionsK=

o~bin= ENVVUF= points= out= th~t= peopäe= often= give= too= much= weight= to=

memor~bäe= evidencesI= even= when= better= sources= of= inform~tion= ~re=

~v~iä~bäeK=ee=notes=th~t=one=m~y=~ääow=~=dr~m~tic=person~ä=story=from=

~=friend=reg~rding=~n=inst~nce=of=product=f~iäure= to=be=more=infäuenti~ä=

th~n=consumer=reports=with=gener~ä=st~tistics=reg~rding=th~t=productK=

^nchoring= refers= to= ~= bi~sed= judgment= on= ~= stimuäus= b~sed= on= the=

initi~ä= ~ssessment=of= ~nother= stimuäus= ~nd= the= insufficient=~djustment=

~w~y= from= th~t= initi~ä= ~ssessmentK= mrevious= rese~rch= indic~tes= th~t=

~nchoring= seems= to= be= ~= gener~ä= phenomenon= underäying= ~= wide=

v~riety= of= process= str~tegies= Ebpäey= ~nd= diäovich= OMMNI= qversky= ~nd=

h~hnem~n=NVTQFK=bvery=time=when=~n= individu~ä= forms=~n= impression=

or=~n= im~ge=~bout=~=stimuäus=whiäe=~nother=stimuäus=is=presentI=these=

impressions=m~y=be=subject=to=~nchoring=effectsK=

Consumers= reguä~räy= form=im~ges=~bout=br~nds=~nd=comp~re=br~nds=

to=other=br~ndsK= ft= is=possibäe= th~t= there=wiää=be=~n=~nchoring=effect= in=

im~ge= impressions= ~bout= br~nds= –= ~= phenomenon= th~t= is= referred= to=

“br~nd= ~nchoring= effect≤K= qhe= br~nd= ~nchoring= effects= c~n= be=

NUM

investig~ted= for= ex~mpäe= in= the= context= of= coJbr~nded= identitiesK= cor=

ex~mpäe= mobiäe= phones= offered= by= pony= brricssonK= ft= is= studied= th~t=

one=br~nd=m~y=serve=~s=~n=~nchor=~nd=~ffect= the= im~ge=structure=of=

the=coJbr~nded=identity=Epony=brricssonF=~s=~=whoäeK=

oem~rk~bäyI= it= ~ppe~rs= th~t=our=br~in=h~ve=been=h~rd=wired= to=m~ke=

cert~in= errorsK= eundreds= of= different= bi~ses= h~ve= been= identified= ~nd=

c~tegorizedI= incäuding=bi~ses=th~t=~ffect=our= judgmentsI= th~t= introduce=

errors= into= the= estim~tes= ~nd= forec~sts= th~t= ~re= producedI= ~nd= th~t=

c~uses= to= m~ke= wrong= choicesK= qhe= concäusion= re~ched= by= a~nieä=

h~hnem~n= ~nd= his= coääe~gues= is= th~t= peopäe= use= unconscious=

shortcutsI=termed=heuristicsI=to=cope=with=compäex=decisionsK==

UWP An bffort oeduction cramework

^K= keweää= ~nd= pimon= ENVTOF= used= the= word= heuristics= to= describe=

simpäe= processes= th~t= repä~ce= compäex= ~ägorithmsK= fn= judgment= ~nd=

decision= m~kingI= the= weighted=~dditive= ruäe= is=one= compäex=~ägorithm=

for= ~rriving= ~t= optim~ä= decisions= ~nd= ~ccur~te= judgments= Em~yneI=

_ettm~nI= C= gohnsonI= NVVPFK= ^ccording= to= the= weighted= ~dditive= ruäeI=

decision=m~kers=consider=~ää=of=the=~v~iä~bäe=~ätern~tives=~nd=cues=for=

e~ch=~ätern~tiveK=aecision=m~kers=must=weight=e~ch=cue=~ccording=to=

objective= or= subjective= impressions= of= how= it= contributes= to= ~n=

~ätern~tive’s=over~ää=v~äueK=lnce=decision=m~kers=~rrive=~t=~=weighting=

principäe=~nd=~ssign=weights=to=e~ch=cueI=they=must=then=c~äcuä~te=the=

v~äue= for= e~ch= ~ätern~tiveK= b~ch= cue’s= v~äue= is= muätipäied= by= its=

corresponding= weightI= ~nd= these= products= ~re= summed= to= yieäd= the=

NUN

over~ää=v~äue=for=~n=~ätern~tiveK=rätim~teäyI=using=the=weighted=~dditive=

ruäe=consistentäy=requires=peopäe=to=expend=effort=on=five=t~sksW==

NK= fdentifying= ~ää= cuesµ~ää= reäev~nt= pieces= of= inform~tion= must= be=

~cknowäedgedK=

OK= oec~ääing= ~nd= storing= cue= v~äuesµthe= v~äues= for= the= pieces= of=

inform~tion=must=either=be=rec~ääed=from=memory=or=processed=from=~n=

extern~ä=sourceK=

PK=^ssessing=the=weights=of=e~ch=cueµthe=import~nce=of=e~ch=piece=of=

inform~tion=must=be=determinedK=

QK=fntegr~ting=inform~tion=for=~ää=~ätern~tivesµthe=weighted=cue=v~äues=

must=be=summed=to=yieäd=~n=over~ää=v~äue=or=utiäity=for=the=~ätern~tiveK=fn=

the=c~se=of=inference=or=judgmentI=this=is=the=fin~ä=stepI=~nd=it=produces=

the=t~rget=judgment=v~äueK=

RK=^ää=~ätern~tives=must=be=comp~redI=~nd=then=the=~ätern~tive=with=the=

highest=v~äue=shouäd=be=seäectedK=

=Cäe~räyI= such= ~n= ~ägorithm= requires= gre~t= ment~ä= effortX= howeverI=

peopäe= do= not= h~ve= unäimited= processing= c~p~cityK= meopäe= must=

oper~te= within= the= constr~ints= imposed= by= both= their= cognitive=

resources= ~nd= the= t~sk= environmentµ~= concept= known= ~s= bounded=

r~tion~lity= EpimonI= NVRRI= NVRSI= NVVMFK= ^s= the= dem~nds= on= äimited=

cognitive= resources= incre~seI= peopäe= m~y= empäoy= methods= or=

str~tegies= th~t= reduce= the= effort= they= expend= on= comput~tionK=

eeuristicsI=therefore=c~n=be=referred=to=~s=methods=th~t=use=principäes=

of=effortJreduction=~nd=simpäific~tionK=_y=definitionI=heuristics=must=~ääow=

NUO

decision=m~kers=to=process=inform~tion= in=~=äess=effortfuä=m~nner=th~n=

one=wouäd=expect=from=~n=optim~ä=decision=ruäeK=

qwo=~re~s=of= rese~rch= in=which=m~ny=heuristics=h~ve=been=proposed=

~re=persu~sion=~nd=m~rketingK=vet=m~ny=of=these=proposed=heuristics=

~ppe~r= to= be= dom~in= specific= inst~nti~tions= of= more= dom~inJgener~ä=

principäesK= ConsiderI= for= ex~mpäeI= the= brand name= heuristic=

Ej~hesw~r~nI= j~ckieI= C= Ch~ikenI= NVVOFI= which= st~tes= th~t= peopäe=

more= f~vor~bäy= ev~äu~te= products= with= positiveäy= v~äenced= br~nd=

n~mesI=or=the=country of=origin heuristic=ECh~ngI=OMMQFI=which=st~tes=

th~t= peopäe= wiää= more= f~vor~bäy= ev~äu~te= products= from= positiveäy=

reg~rded= countriesK= qhe= price heuristic= Ejitr~I= NVVRF= suggests= th~t=

peopäe= judge= expensive= products= to= be= of= high= qu~äityK= qhe= scarcity

heuristic= Efor= ~= reviewI= see= _r~nnon= C= _rockI= OMMNF= suggests= th~t=

peopäe= judge= r~re=products= to=be= of=high= v~äue=or= qu~äityK=qhe= effort

heuristic=EhrugerI=tirtzI=s~n=_ovenI=C=^äterm~ttI=OMMQF=suggests=th~t=

peopäe=wiää=judge=objects=th~t=took=~=äong=time=to=produce=to=be=of=high=

v~äueK= curthermoreI= the= idiosyncratic fit heuristic= Ehivetz= C=

pimonsonI=OMMPF=suggests= th~t=peopäe=wiää= ev~äu~te=consumer= äoy~äty=

progr~ms= EeKgKI= buy= NM= coffeesI= get= N= freeF= with= person~ääy= reäev~nt=

fe~tures= to=be=more= v~äu~bäeK=qhusI=~äthough= these=heuristics=v~ry= in=

the= specificsI= they= ~ää= ~ppe~r= quite= reä~ted= in= describing= how= cert~in=

cues=~re=used= to=m~ke=positive=ev~äu~tionsK=ptiää= other=overäy=specific=

heuristics=popuä~te=the=persu~sion=äiter~tureK=qhe=audience response

heuristic=E^xsomI=v~tesI=C=Ch~ikenI=NVUTFI=for=ex~mpäeI=st~tes=th~t=~n=

enthusi~stic=~udience=response=EeKgKI=he~rty=~ppä~useF= to=~=mess~ge=

NUP

wiää= äe~d= observers= to= positiveäy= reg~rd= or= ~gree= with= ~= mess~geK=

Cäoseäy= reä~ted= to= this= is= the= consensus heuristicI= which= is= ~=

gener~äized= version=of= the=~udience= response= heuristic= EdinerJporoää~=

C= Ch~ikenI= NVVTX= j~hesw~r~n= C= Ch~ikenI= NVVNFK= qhere= is= ~äso= the=

endorsement heuristic= Ecoreh~ndI= d~stiäI= C= pmithI= OMMQFI= which=

suggests=th~t=peopäe=wiää=find=mess~ges=more=convincing=if=~=positiveäy=

reg~rded= org~niz~tion= endorses= themK= qhe= likeability heuristic=

suggests= th~t= peopäe= wiää= be= more= convinced= by= äike~bäe= th~n=

unäike~bäe= spe~kers= ECh~ikenI= NVUMFK= curthermoreI= ~ccording= to= the=

expertise heuristic=

Eo~tneshw~r= C= Ch~ikenI= NVVNFI= peopäe= wiää= be= more= convinced= by=

experts= th~n= novicesK= ^s= in= the= m~rketing= äiter~tureI= these= heuristics=

v~ry=in=specifics=but=~re=~ää=cäoseäy=reä~ted=by=the=f~ct=th~t=they=specify=

how=peopäe=~re=more=convinced=by=mess~ges=th~t=~re=~ssoci~ted=with=

positiveäy=v~äenced=inform~tion=

UWQ The keed To Accommodate eeuristics fn Brand

Choice jodels

rse=of=heuristics=in=br~nd=choice=m~y=induce=~n=error=in=the=judgment=

of= the=consumerK= ff= the=consumers=end=up=with=purch~sing=our=br~ndI=

then=~ää= is= weääK= _ut=wh~t= if= consumers=go= the=other= w~y=~nd= choose=

some= other= br~nd?= eere= äies= the= probäem= for= ~= m~rketerK= qherefore=

underst~nding= the= use= of= heuristics= by= consumers= in= their= decision=

m~king=is=of=import~nceK=

NUQ

^=consumer=wiää=choose=~=br~nd=depending=upon=the=qu~äity=of=the=set=

of= fe~tures= of= the= productLbr~nd= present= in= his= inform~tion= setK=

^ccording= to= the= type= of= inform~tion= they= cont~inI= fe~tures= c~n= be=

divided=into=two=m~in=groupsK=ce~tures=from=the=first=group=~re=reä~ted=

to= hum~n= perceptions= of= the= worädK= qhey= describe= some= observ~bäe=

~ttribute=of=the=ex~mined=productK=qhe=second=group=of=fe~tures=reäies=

on=~bstr~ct=inform~tion=provided=by=the=memory=which=c~n=differ=from=

individu~ä= to= individu~äK= qhis= ~bstr~ct= inform~tion= of= the= individu~ä=

depends= upon= the= consumer’s= demogr~phic= v~ri~bäesK= ^äthough= the=

number=of=fe~tures=c~n=be=ä~rge=in=the=initi~ä=fe~ture=setI=number=of=non=

–= redund~nt= fe~tures= is= signific~ntäy= sm~ääerK= Consumer= wiää= try= to=

reduce= this= initi~ä= fe~ture= set= into= ~= sm~ää= m~n~ge~bäe= size= using=

knowäedge=~bout=the=qu~äity=of=individu~ä=fe~turesK==

qhe= consumer= deveäops= ~ctu~ä= ~ttributes= v~äue= profiäe= of= the= br~ndK=

pometimesI= consumers= convert= these= ~ctu~ä= ~ttributes= v~äue= to= more=

psychoäogic~ääy= me~ningfuäI= better= defined=ordered= v~äuesK= = ff= choices=

~re= b~sed= on= ordered= v~äues= r~ther= th~n= the ~ttributes= v~äuesI=

~djustments= in=considered=products’=~ctu~ä=~ttribute=v~äue=profiäes=wiää=

presum~bäy= not=h~ve= ~ppreci~bäe= effect=on= choice= sh~res=~s= äong=~s=

products’=reä~tive=positions=~äong=~ttributes=~re=preservedK=ff=preservedI=

consumers= shouäd= be= äess= responsive= to= ~ctu~ä= v~äue= ch~nges= th~n=

tr~dition~ä= modeäsI= such= ~s= muätinomi~ä= äogit= modeä= EjkiF= predictK= fn=

short= rese~rch= tiää= this= d~te= h~s= proved= th~t= consumers= m~ke= br~nd=

choices=either=on=the=b~sis=of=the=~ttributes=of=the=br~nds=ev~äu~ted=by=

them=or=the=consumers=put=the=br~nds=in=some=order=on=the=äines=of=the=

NUR

~ttributes= ~äre~dy= ev~äu~tedK= qhis= order= of= the= br~nds= rem~ins=

unch~nged=untiä= ~=m~jor=ch~nge=occurs= in= the=~ttributes=of= the=br~nd=

under=consider~tionK=qhese=two=modes=c~ääed=~s=^ttribute=s~äue=_~se=

jode=~nd=lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jodeK==

UWR The ptatistical jodel for Brand Choice

qhe=foääowing=p~r~gr~phs=show=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeä=which=cont~in=

four=p~rtsK=

NK= qhe=^ttribute=s~äue=_~se=jode=jodeä=E^s_jF=

OK= qhe=lrdered=s~äue=_~se=jode=jode=Els_jF=

PK= qhe=au~ä=|qime=fnv~ri~nt=jodeä=

QK= qhe=au~ä|qime=s~ri~nt=jodeä=

UWRWN The Attribute salue Base jode jodel EAsBjF

qhis=modeä=is=the=cä~ssic~ä=juätinomi~ä=iogit=jodeä=EjkiF=~nd=is=used=

when= there= is= ~= choice= between= two= or= more= ~ätern~tivesK= iet= us=

consider=onäy=two=~ätern~tives=EproductsF=from=which=~=choice=h~s=to=be=

m~deK= qhe= consumer= wiää= seäect= th~t= product= th~t= wiää= heäp= him= to=

m~ximize= his= utiäity= E_en= –= ^kiv~= C= ierm~n= NVURFK= ^ccording= to= this=

ruäe=~=consumer=i=chooses=the=~ätern~tive=which=m~ximizes=his=utiäity=ri

puppose= the= two= ~ätern~tives= j= ~nd= k= cre~te= the= choice= set= of= the=

consumer= with= C= Z= {jI= k}K= qhe= prob~biäity= th~t= consumer= i= chooses=

~ätern~tive=j=is=

= = = miEjF=Z=mErij=[=rikF = = = = = = = ENF=

iet= us= ~ssume= th~t= the= utiäity= function= rij= in= equ~tion= ENF= c~n= be=

sep~r~ted=into=two=p~rts==

NUS

= = = rij=Z=sij=H=εij=

qhe= sij= being= ~= system~tic= utiäity= component= ~nd= εij= is= stoch~stic=

component= Edu~d~gni= C= iittäe= NVUPFK= fn= the= simpäest= formI= the=

stoch~stic= components= ~re= ~ssumed= to= be= iKiKdK= Eidentic~ääy= C=

independentäy= distributedF= ~nd= extreme= v~äue= distributedK= qhe=

system~tic=component=is=specified=by=~=äine~r=function=

= = = sij=Z=θq=xij= = = = = =

= EOF=

θ= is= the= vector= of= p~r~meters= to= be= estim~ted= ~nd= xij= is= the= vector= of=

expä~n~tory=v~ri~bäesK=bqu~tion=ENF=c~n=now=be=rewritten=~s==

= = miEjF=Z=mErij ≥=rikF=Z=mE=sij=H=εij ≥=sik=H=εikF = = =

= = = = = ========Z=mEεik=J=εij ≤=sij=J=sikF = = EPF=

^ssuming= th~t= eik= J =eij= h~s= ~= äogistic= distributionI= the= prob~biäity= of=

equ~tion=EPF=c~n=be=written=~s==

=

= = = miEjF=Z=

=

=

= = = ============ = = =

= ===========

=

EQF

N

N H e{J Esij – sikF}

esij

esij H esik =

expEθqxijF

expEθqxijF H expEθqxikF =

NUT

iet= f= be= the= consider~tion= set= of= the= consumer= in= which= there= ~re=

sever~äI=br~nds=presentK=iet= the=consumer= choose= ~=product= “i≤K=lne=

never=knows=in=which=mode=the=consumer=is=oper~tingK=qhe=expression=

for= the= prob~biäity= of= choosing= the= product= i= c~n= be= deveäoped= ~s=

foääowsK=ff=the=consumer=is=oper~ting=in=^s_j=then=the=prob~biäity=is==

mEchoice=Z=i|=^s_jFK=

ERF

qhe= ~bove= modeä= ~nd= the= rem~ining= three= described= beäow= ~re=

executed= with= the= heäp= of= tin_rdp= softw~reK= ^s= mentioned= e~räierI=

tin_rdp= uses= _~yesi~n= fnference= ~nd= jCjC= to= c~äcuä~te= the=

posterior= prob~biäitiesK= qhe= foääowing= section= demonstr~tes= how=

_~yesi~n=fnference=~nd=jCjC=oper~te=for=the=first=two=moduäesK=

EkoteW=qhe=expl~n~tion=is=given=for=AsBj=C=lsBj=module=onlyK=As=~ll=

the=modules=~re=executed=in=tinBrdpI=expl~n~tion=for=the=rem~ining=

two=modules=is=~voided=for=simplicityKF=

∑β~xi~

A

exp

=

∑β~xj

j = N ~=N

f A

∑ exp

~=N

NUU

UWRWNWN The iikelihood cunction

fn=äogistic=regressionI==

=

po=th~t=the=m~ximum=äikeäihood=function=for=the=nth=consumer=wiää=be==

pince= the= individu~ä= consumers= ~re= ~ssumed= independent= of= e~ch=

otherI=äikeäihood=function=over=the=d~t~=set=of=n=consumers=is=then==

UWRWNWO mrior aistribution

qhe= set= of=unknown= p~r~meter= consist= of=βMI =βNI =βOI =… =βpK= fn= gener~ä=

~ny=prior=distribution=c~n=be=usedI=depending=upon=the=~v~iä~bäe=prior=

inform~tionK= qhe= choice= c~n= incäude= inform~tive= prior= distributions= if=

something=is=known=~bout=the=äikeäy=v~äues=of=the=unknown=p~r~metersI=

or= diffused= or= nonJinform~tive= prior= if= either= äittäe= is= known= ~bout= the=

coefficient= v~äues= or= if= one= wishes= to= see= wh~t= the= d~t~= themseäves=

provide=~s=inferencesK=

eoweverI=one=wiää= use= the=most=common=priors= for= äogistic= regression=

p~r~meters=which=~re=of=the=form==

=

NUV

=

qhe=most=common=choice=for=μ=is=zero=~nd=for=σ=is=usu~ääy=chosen=to=

be=ä~rge=enough=to=be=considered=~s=non=inform~tive=

UWRWNWP mosterior aistribution via Baye’s Theorem

qhe=posterior=distribution=is=derived=by=muätipäying=the=prior=distribution=

over=~ää=the=p~r~meters=by=the=fuää=äikeäihood=function=

UWRWNWQ Bayesian Analysis

qhe= _~yesi~n= ~ppro~ch= to= st~tistic~ä= inference= begins= ~t= the= s~me=

pä~ce= ~s= more= convention~ä= ~ppro~chesW= ~= prob~biäity= modeä= E~äso=

known= ~s= ~= d~t~= gener~ting= processFK= ^= prob~biäity= modeä= reä~tes=

observed=d~t~=y= to=~= set=of=unknown=p~r~meters=θI=with= the=possibäe=

incäusion=of=fixedI=known=cov~ri~tes=xK=lur=d~t~=~re=usu~ääy=~=coääection=

of=observ~tions=indexed=i=Z=NI=K=K=K=I=nW=y=Z={yNI=yOI=K=K=K=I=yn}K=qhe=observed=

d~t~= need=not=be= sc~ä~rsX= in= f~ctI= they=c~n=be= ~nything= supported=by=

the= prob~biäity= modeäI= incäuding= vectors= ~nd=m~tricesK=qhe=prob~biäity=

modeä=h~s=k=p~r~metersI=which=~re=represented=θ=Z=EθNI =θOI =K =K =K =I =θkFK=

qhe= cov~ri~tesI=or= independent=v~ri~bäesI=~re= typic~ääy= ~= coääection= of=

coäumn= vectorsW= x= Z= {xNI =xOI =K =K =K =I =xn}K= qhe= prob~biäity= modeä= c~n= be=

written= fEy|θIxFI= orI= suppressing= the= conditioning= on= the= cov~ri~tesI=

fEy|θFK= ft= is= import~nt= to=stress=the=import~nce=of= choosing=~ppropri~te=

prob~biäity= modeäsK= thiäe= c~nonic~ä= modeäs= exist= for= cert~in= types= of=

NVM

dependent= v~ri~bäesI= the= choice= of= modeä= is= r~reäy= innocuousI= ~nd= is=

thus=something=th~t=shouäd=be=tested=for=~dequ~cyK=

qhe= purpose= of= st~tistic~ä= inference= is= to= äe~rn=~bout= p~r~meters= th~t=

ch~r~cterize= the=d~t~=gener~ting=process=given=observed=d~t~K= fn= the=

convention~äI= frequentist= ~ppro~ch= to= st~tistic~ä= inferenceI= one=

~ssumes= th~t= the=p~r~meters=~re= fixedI=unknown=qu~ntitiesI=~nd= th~t=

the=observed=d~t~= y=~re=~= singäe= re~äiz~tion=of=~= repe~t~bäe=processI=

~nd= c~n= thus= be= tre~ted= ~s= r~ndom= v~ri~bäesK= qhe= go~ä= of= the=

frequentist= ~ppro~ch= is= to= produce= estim~tes= of= these= unknown=

p~r~metersK= qhese= estim~tes= ~re= denoted= θ{= Ethet~= c~pFK= qhe= most=

common=w~y=to=obt~in=these=estim~tes=is=by=the=method=of=m~ximum=

äikeäihoodK=qhis=method=uses= the=s~me=prob~biäity=modeäI= but= tre~ts= it=

~s= ~= function= of= the= fixedI= unknown= p~r~metersK= cor= our= muätiv~ri~te=

äogistic=regression=modeäW=

lne=m~ximizes=the=äikeäihood=function=iE·F=with=respect=the=p~r~meters=

to=obt~in=the=m~ximum=äikeäihood=estim~tesX=iKeKI=the=p~r~meter=v~äues=

most=äikeäy=to=h~ve=produced=the=observed=d~t~K=qo=perform=inference=

~bout= the= p~r~metersI= the= frequentist= recognizes= th~t= the= estim~ted=

p~r~meters= θˆ= resuät= from= ~= singäe= s~mpäeI= ~nd= uses= the= s~mpäing=

distribution= to= compute= st~nd~rd= errorsI= perform= hypothesis= testsI=

construct=confidence=interv~äsI=~nd=the=äikeK=

NVN

then= performing= _~yesi~n= inferenceI= the= found~tion~ä= ~ssumptions=

~re=quite=differentK=qhe=unknown=p~r~meters=θ=~re=tre~ted=~s=r~ndom=

v~ri~bäesI= whiäe= the= observed= d~t~= y= ~re= tre~ted= ~s= fixedI= known=

qu~ntitiesK= E_oth= the= _~yesi~n= ~nd= frequentist= ~ppro~ch= tre~t= the=

cov~ri~tes=x=~s=fixedI=known=qu~ntitiesFK=qhese=~ssumptions=~re=much=

more= intuitiveX= the= unobserv~bäe= p~r~meters= ~re= tre~ted=

prob~biäistic~ääyI=whiäe= the= observed=d~t~=~re= tre~ted= deterministic~ääyK=

fndeedI= the= qu~ntity= of= interest= is= the= distribution= of= the= p~r~meter= θ=

~fter= h~ving= observed= the= d~t~= yK= qhis= posterior= distribution= c~n= be=

written=fEθ|yFI=~nd=c~n=be=computed=using=_~yes’=qheoremW=

qhe= posterior= distribution= is= the= condition~ä= distribution= of= the=

p~r~meters= ~fter= h~ving= observed= the= d~t~= E~s= opposed= to= the= priorI=

which= is= th~t= distribution= before= h~ving= observed= the= d~t~FK= qhe=

posterior=~=form~äI=prob~biäistic=st~tement=~bout=äikeäy=p~r~meter=v~äues=

~fter= observing= the= d~t~K= _~yes’= qheorem= foääows= directäy= from= the=

~xioms= of= prob~biäity= theoryI= ~nd= is= used= to= reä~te= the= condition~ä=

distributions=of=two=v~ri~bäesK==

lne= of= the= three= qu~ntities= on= the= rightJh~nd= side= of= the= ~bove=

equ~tion= is= f~miäi~rW= fEy|θF= is= the= äikeäihood= function= dict~ted= by= the=

prob~biäity= modeäK= Eqhe= äikeäihood= function= pä~ys= ~= cruci~ä= roäe= in=

_~yesi~n=~ppro~ches= to=d~t~=~n~äysisK=qhe=second=expression= in= the=

numer~tor=fEθF=is=c~ääed=the=prior=distributionK=qhis=distribution=cont~ins=

NVO

~ää= ex= ~nte= inform~tion= ~bout= the= p~r~meter= v~äues= ~v~iä~bäe= to= the=

rese~rcher=before=observing=the=d~t~K=lftentimes=rese~rchers=use=nonJ

inform~tive=Eor=minim~ääy=inform~tive=p~r~metersF=such=th~t=the=~mount=

of=prior= inform~tion=incäuded=in=the=~n~äysis=is=sm~ääK=qhe=denomin~tor=

of=the=~bove=equ~tion=cont~ins=the=prior=predictive=distributionW==

=thiäe= this= qu~ntity= is= usefuä= in= some= settingsI= such= ~s= modeä=

comp~risonI= most= of= the= time= rese~rchers= work= up= to= ~= const~nt= of=

proportion~äity=fEθ|yF=α=fEy|θFfEθFK=qhe=posterior=distributionI=in=essenceI=

tr~nsä~tes= the= äikeäihood= function= into= ~= proper= prob~biäity= distribution=

over= the=unknown=p~r~metersI=which=c~n=be=summ~rized= just=~s=~ny=

prob~biäity= distributionX= by= computing= expected= v~äuesI= st~nd~rd=

devi~tionsI= qu~ntiäesI= ~nd= the= äikeK= th~t= m~kes= this= possibäe= is= the=

form~ä=incäusion=of=prior=inform~tion=in=the=~n~äysisK==

UWRWNWR jodel citting sia pimulation

^n~äytic~ääy=summ~rizing=posterior=distributions= is= typic~ääy= impossibäeK=

lver= the=ä~st=twenty=ye~rsI=_~yesi~n=st~tistici~ns=h~ve=h~rnessed= the=

jonte= C~räo= method= Ejetropoäis= ~nd= rä~mI= NVQVF= to= perform= this=

summ~riz~tion=numeric~ääyK=thiäe= these=methods=c~n=be=empäoyed= to=

study=~ny=distributionI= the=discussion= here= wiää= focus=soäeäy= on=jonte=

C~räo=methods=commonäy=used=in=_~yesi~n=st~tisticsK=lne=is=therefore=

interested= in= äe~rning= ~bout= the= posterior= distribution= fEθ|yFI= which= is=

termed= ~s= the= t~rget= distribution= bec~use= it= is= the= distribution= from=

which=one=intend=to=simuä~teK=Eqhere=~re=other=distributions=one=might=

NVP

be= interested= in= simuä~ting= fromI= incäuding= the= posterior= ~nd= prior=

predictive=distributionsKF=qhe=jonte=C~räo=method=is=b~sed=on=~=simpäe=

ide~W=one=c~n= äe~rn=~nything=~bout=~= t~rget=distribution=by= repe~tedäy=

dr~wing=from=it=~nd=empiric~ääy=summ~rizing=those=dr~wsK=cor=ex~mpäeI=

one= might= be= interested= in= computing= the= posterior= expected= v~äueI=

which= c~n= be= done= ~n~äytic~ääy= by= computing= ~= high= dimension~ä=

integr~äW=

ff=one=were=~bäe=to=produce=~=r~ndom=sequence=of=d=dr~ws=θENFI=θEOFI=K=K=

K=I=θEdF=from=fEθ|yFI=he=c~n=~pproxim~te=the=posterior=expected=v~äue=by=

t~king=the=~ver~ge=of=these=dr~wsW=

qo=use=the=jonte=C~räo=method=to=summ~rize=posterior=distributionsI=it=

is=necess~ry=to=h~ve=~ägorithms=th~t=~re=weääJsuited=to=producing=dr~ws=

from=commonäy= found= t~rget=distributionsK=qwo= ~ägorithmsµthe=dibbs=

s~mpäing=~nd=jetropoäisJe~stings=^ägorithmsµ=h~ve=proven=to=be=very=

usefuä=for=~ppäied=_~yesi~n=workK=_oth=of=these=~ägorithms=~re=j~rkov=

ch~in=jonte=C~räo=methodsI=which=me~ns=th~t=the=sequence=of=dr~ws=

θENFI=θEOFI=K=K=K=I=θEdF=~re=dependentX=e~ch=dr~w=θEgHNF=depends=onäy=on=the=

previous=dr~w=θEgFK=qhe=sequence=of=dr~ws=thus=forms=~=j~rkov=ch~inK=

^ägorithms= ~re= constructed= such= th~t= the= j~rkov= ch~in= converges= to=

the=t~rget=density=Eits=ste~dy=st~teF=reg~rdäess=of=the=st~rting=v~äuesK=

NVQ

qhe=dibbs=s~mpäing=~ägorithm=Edem~n=~nd=dem~nI=NVUQX=deäf~nd=~nd=

pmithI=NVVMF=uses=~=sequence=of=dr~ws= from=condition~ä=distributions=

to=ch~r~cterize=the=joint=t~rget=distributionK=puppose=th~t=our=p~r~meter=

vector=θ=h~s=three=componentsI=m~king=our=t~rget=distribution=fEθNI=θOI=

θP|yFK= qo= use= the= dibbs= s~mpäerI= one= begins= by= choosing= st~rting=

v~äues= θEMFO= ~nd= θEMF

P= Est~rting= v~äues= ~re= usu~ääy= chosen= ne~r= the=

posterior= mode= or= the= m~ximum= äikeäihood= bstim~tesFK= lne= then=

repe~tsI=for=g=Z=NI=KKKId=iter~tions=Em~king=sure=to=store=the=sequence=of=

dr~ws=~t=e~ch=iter~tionFW=

pince= one= ~re= ~äw~ys= conditioning= on= p~st= dr~wsI= the= resuät~nt=

sequence= resuäts= in= ~= j~rkov= ch~inK= then= computing= jonte= C~räo=

estim~tes=of=qu~ntities=of=interestI=äike=the=posterior=me~nI=one=disc~rds=

the= first= set= of= “burnJin≤= iter~tions= to= ensure= the= ch~in= h~s= re~ched=

ste~dy= st~teK= cor= the= posterior= distribution= of= m~ny= common= modeäsI=

these= condition~ä= distributions= t~ke= known= formsX= eKgKI= muätiv~ri~te=

norm~äI= trunc~ted= norm~äI= d~mm~I= etcK= poI= whiäe= the= joint= posterior=

distribution= is= difficuät= to= simuä~te= from= directäyI= it= is= e~sy= to= simuä~te=

from=these=condition~äsK=

qhe= second= ~ägorithm= th~t= enjoys= common= use= in= ~ppäied= _~yesi~n=

st~tistics= is= the= jetropoäisJe~stings= ~ägorithmI= first= introduced= by=

NVR

jetropoäis=et=~äK=ENVRPF=~nd=gener~äized=by=e~stings=ENVTVFK=Chib=~nd=

dreenberg=ENVVRF=provide=~n=~ccessibäe=introduction=to=this=~ägorithmK=

qhe= ~ägorithm=h~s=m~ny= ~ppäic~tions=beyond= _~yesi~n= st~tisticsX= it= is=

commonäy=used=for=~ää=sorts=of=numeric~ä= integr~tion=~nd=optimiz~tionK=

Eft=is=~äso=the=c~se=th~t=the=dibbs=s~mpäing=~ägorithm=is=~=speci~ä=c~se=

of= the= jetropoäisJe~stings= ~ägorithmKF= qo= simuä~te= from= t~rget=

distribution=fEθ|yFI=one=~g~in=st~rt=with=sensibäe=st~rting=v~äuesW=θEMFK=cor=

e~ch= iter~tion= of= the= simuä~tion= g= Z= NI= KKKIdI= one= dr~w= ~= propos~ä= θG=

from= ~= known= propos~ä= distribution= pgEθG|θEg−NFFK =lne =chooses =~ =

propos~ä=distribution=from=which=it=is=e~sy=to=s~mpäeI=such=~s=~=uniform=

distribution= over= ~= p~rticuä~r= regionI= or= ~= muätiv~ri~te= norm~ä= or=

muätiv~ri~teJtI= centered= ~t= the= current= äoc~tion= of= the= ch~inI= the=

posterior= modeI= or= perh~ps= eäsewhereK= ft= is= import~nt= to= choose= ~=

propos~ä= distribution=such= th~t= the=ch~in= “mixes=weää≤X= iKeKI=~dequ~teäy=

expäores= the= posterior= distributionK= qhe= convergence= di~gnosticsI=

discussed= beäowI= c~n= be= used= to= determine= how= weää= the= ch~in= is=

mixingK=cor=e~ch=iter~tionI==

rnäike=the=dibbs=s~mpäing=~ägorithmI=when=e~ch=move=is=~utom~tic~ääy=

~cceptedI= one= ~ccepts= the= propos~ä= distribution= prob~biäistic~ääyI=

NVS

sometimes=moving= to=~= v~äue=with=~=higher=density=v~äueI= sometimes=

moving= to= one= with= ~= äower= density= v~äueK= gust= ~s= with= the= dibbs=

s~mpäing=~ägorithmI=the=ste~dy=st~te=of=the=j~rkov=ch~in=ch~r~cterized=

by= this= ~ägorithm= is= the= t~rget= distributionI= in= this= c~seI= the= posterior=

distributionK= cigure= N= iääustr~tes= s~mpäing= from= the= s~me= biv~ri~te=

norm~ä= distribution= using= jetropoäisJe~stings= with= ~= uniform= r~ndom=

w~äk=propos~ä=with=width=of=two=unitsK==

cig UWO Convergence of aata

tithout= being= ~bäe= to= päot= the= t~rget= distributionI= which= in= most=

~ppäic~tions=is=of=high=dimensionI=it=wouäd=be=difficuätI=if=not=impossibäeI=

to=~ssess=whether=the=ch~in=is=s~mpäing=from=the=t~rget=distributionK=^n=

import~nt=p~rt=of=~ny=_~yesi~n=~n~äysis=is=~ssessing=the=convergence=

of=the=simuä~tion=resuätsK=fndeedI=no=jonte=C~räo=estim~tes=of=posterior=

density= summ~ries= c~n= be= trusted= unäess= the= ch~in= h~s= re~ched= its=

ste~dy= st~teK= _ut= just= ~s= it= is= impossibäe= to= knowI= in= most=

NVT

circumst~ncesI= th~t= ~= numeric~ä= optimizer= h~s= re~ched= the= gäob~ä=

m~ximum=äikeäihood=estim~teI=soI=tooI=is=it=impossibäe=to=know=for=sure=

whether= ~= j~rkov= ch~in= jonte= C~räo= ~ägorithm= h~s= convergedK=

eoweverI= there= ~re= ~= number= of= methods= th~t= c~n= be= used= to= t~ke=

output=from=~=jCjC=s~mpäer=~nd=test=whether=the=sequence=of=dr~ws=

is=consistent=with=convergence=Esee=the=review=pieces=by=Cowäes=~nd=

C~räinI=NVVRX=_rooks=~nd=oobertsI=NVVUFK=b~ch=of= these=convergence=

di~gnostics= is=b~sed=on=one=of=~=number=of=criteri~X=some=äook=~t= the=

m~rgin~ä= posterior= distributions= to= see= if= the= tr~ce= päots= is= st~tion~ry=

Eusing=~=number=of=different=testsFK=lthers=comp~re=muätipäe=runs=from=

different= st~rting= v~äues= ~nd= using= different= r~ndom=number= seeds= to=

determine=whether=the=ch~ins=converge=in=such=~=w~y=~s=to=m~ke=their=

different= st~rting= v~äues= irreäev~ntK= ft= is= import~nt= to= note= th~t= finding=

nonconvergence=of=~ny=p~r~meter=me~ns=th~t=the=entire=ch~in=h~s=not=

convergedI=~nd= it= needs= to=be= run= äonger= Eor= reJimpäemented=using=~=

different= ~ägorithmFK= bvery= ~n~äyst= shouäd= use= these= di~gnostic= tooäs=

before=computing=~ny=posterior=density=summ~ries=or=reporting=resuätsI=

~nd= resuäts= from= these= di~gnostics= shouäd= be= presented= in= rese~rch=

p~persK=

qhe=~bove=modeä=c~n=be=reä~tiveäy=e~siäy=executed=with=the=heäp=of=

softw~re=known=~s=tin_rdpK=qhe=code=is=mentioned=beäow=

jodel ptatement for AsBj

modeä==

{=

#key=modeä=st~tements=on=individu~ä=beh~vior=

NVU

= for=Enthchoice=in=N=W=nchoiceF= {=

= = for=Enthbr~nd=in=N=W=nbr~ndsF={=

= = = äogEmuxnthchoiceInthbr~ndzF=YJ==

= = = bet~KhxwhichKhhxnthchoicezInthbr~ndz=H==

= = = inprodEbet~KhxwhichKhhxnthchoicezI== =

Enbr~nds=H=NFWEnbr~nds=H=npredsFzI=xxnthchoiceInthbr~ndI=NWnpredszF=

pxnthchoiceInthbr~ndz=YJ==

= = = muxnthchoiceInthbr~ndz=

LsumEmuxnthchoiceInthbr~ndzFX=

= = }===========

= = #yxnthchoicez=~=dc~tEpxnthchoiceIzFX=

=}=====

= = #priors=on=individu~ä=äeveä=p~r~meters=

for=Enthhh=in=NWnhhF= {=

= bet~KhxnthhhINz=YJ=M=#=for=identific~tion=

= bet~KhxnthhhIOWnbet~sz=~=dmnormEmuKbet~xnchoiceIzI=

= qKbet~xnchoiceIIzF=

= = }=

= pKnthchoicexNWnchoicez=~=ddirch=EonesKvecKäenKnmodesxzFX=

= for=Enthchoice=in=NW=nchoiceF= {=

= = onesKvecKäenKnmodesxnthchoicez=YJN=

= }=

#hyperpriors=on=p~r~meters=of=priors=on=individu~ä=äeveä=p~r~meters=

for=E=nthchoice=in=NW=nchoiceF= {=

NVV

= muKbet~xnthchoiceINWnKfreeKbet~sz=~=dmnormEzeroKvecxzI=

sm~ääKm~trixxIzFX=

= qKbet~xnthchoiceINWnKfreeKbet~sI=NWnKfreeKbet~sz~=

dwishEsm~ääKm~trixxIzInKfreeKbet~sFX=

= }=

= for=Enthbet~=in=NWnKfreeKbet~sF= {=

= =

zeroKvecxnthbet~z=YJ=MX=

= sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~z=YJ=MKMMNX=

= = for=Enthbet~Kd~sh=in=Enthbet~=H=NFWnKfreeKbet~sF= {=

= = sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~Kd~shz=YJ=MKMMMRX=

= = sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Kd~shInthbet~zYJMKMMMRX=

= = }=

= }=

}=

UWRWO The lrdered salue Base jode jodel ElsBjF

qo= describe= ~= consumer= oper~ting= in= ls_jI= modify= the= preceding=

prob~biäity= to= m~ke= it= immune= to= ~ttribute= v~äue= ch~nges= th~t= do= not=

~äter= the= ordering= of= considered= products’= ~ttribute= v~äuesK= qhe=

“signum≤= function= c~n= be= used= in= the= expressionK= _y= definitionI= this=

function=t~kes=the=v~äue=of=N=if=its=~rgument=is=strictäy=positiveI=–N=if=its=

~rgument=is=strictäy=neg~tiveI=~nd=M=if=its=~rgument=is=ex~ctäy=zeroK=qhe=

ls_j=utiäity=for=product=i=c~n=be=defined=~s=foääowsW=

=

OMM

ESF qhe=choice=prob~biäity=is==

mEchoice=Z=i|=ls_jF==================

=

ETF fn= this= modeäI= ~ny= ch~nge= th~t= preserves= the= ordering= of= products’=

v~äues=~äong=~ttribute=~= äe~ves= the=v~äues= in= {signum=Exi~= – =xj~FI =i =≠= j} =

unch~ngedK=qhusI= the=v~äue=of=rils_j= is=unch~ngedK=ConverseäyI=~ny=

ch~nge=th~t=~äters=the=ordering=resuäts=in=~t=äe~st=one=v~äue=in={signum=

Exi~=–=xj~FI=i=≠=j}=being=ch~nged=~ndI=thusI=~=ch~nge=in=~t=äe~st=one=of=

the=rils_jK=

qhe=b~sic=difference=th~t= äies= in= the= two=modes= is= th~t= in=equ~tion= ENF=

for=^s_jI=the=contribution=of=~=cert~in=~ttribute=to=the=over~ää= utiäity= is=

~bsoäute=~nd=does=not=depend=on=the=~ttribute’s=~bsoäute=v~äue=in=other=

productsK=bqu~tion=ETF=for=ls_j=~ssumes=th~t=contribution=of=~=cert~in=

~ttribute=to=the=over~ää=utiäity=is=~ssessed=onäy=in=the=context=of=the=other=

products’= v~äues= for= th~t= ~ttributeK= qhis= refäects= the= position= th~t=

rilsBj = ~ = N

A ∑ β~´ ∑signum Exi~ – xj~F H ej

j = N

f

∑β~” f A

~=N g=N

exp ∑signumExi~ – xj~F

= f

g=N

Aexp

h=N

∑ ∑β~” ∑ signumExk~ – xj~F

~=N

OMN

preferences=~re=not=preexisting=but=r~ther=constructed=~ccording=to=the=

context EqverskyI= pimonsonI= NVVPFK= qhe= utiäities= in= the= ls_j= ~re=

context= specific= in= this= w~yI= the= ls_j= modeä’s= prob~biäities= do= not=

h~ve= the= property= of= independence= from= irreäev~nt= ~ätern~tives=

E^memiy~=NVURFK=

The tinBrdp code for the lrdered salue Base jode

modeä==

{=

rnkNxiz=YJ=r~nkEmricexzIiF=

rnkOxiz=YJ=r~nkEce~txzIiF=

rnkPxiz=YJ=r~nkEaispxzIiF=

äogitEpxizF=YJ=~äph~=H=bKbr~ndOGbr~ndOxiz=H=bKbr~ndPGbr~ndPxiz=H=

bKmriceGrnkNxizH=bKce~tGrnkOxiz=HbKaispGrnkPxiz==

#äowxiz=~=dbernEpxizF=

~äph~=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=

bKbr~ndO=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=

bKbr~ndP=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=

bKmrice=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=

bKce~t=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=

bKaisp=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=

predKprice=YJ=expE~äph~=H=bKbr~ndO=H=bKbr~ndP=H=bKmrice=H=bKce~t=H=

bKaispF=L=EN=H=expE~äph~=H=bKbr~ndO=H=bKbr~ndP=H=bKmrice=H=bKce~t=H=

bKaispFF=

}=

OMO

UWRWP iogistics oegression

fn=st~tisticsI=logistic regression Esometimes=c~ääed=the=logistic model

or=logit modelF=is=used=for=prediction=of=the=prob~biäity=of=occurrence=of=

~n= event= by= fitting= d~t~= to= ~= äogistic= curveK= ft= is= ~= gener~äized= äine~r=

modeä= used= for= binomi~ä= regressionK= iike= m~ny= forms= of= regression=

~n~äysisI=it=m~kes=use=of=sever~ä=predictor=v~ri~bäes=th~t=m~y=be=either=

numeric~ä=or=c~tegoric~äK=cor=ex~mpäeI=the=prob~biäity=th~t=~=person=h~s=

~=he~rt= ~tt~ck=within= ~= specified= time=period=might= be=predicted= from=

knowäedge= of= the= personDs= ~geI= sex= ~nd= body= m~ss= indexK= iogistic=

regression= is= used= extensiveäy= in= the= medic~ä= ~nd= soci~ä= sciences= ~s=

weää= ~s= m~rketing= ~ppäic~tions= such= ~s= prediction= of= ~= customerDs=

propensity=to=purch~se=~=product=or=ce~se=~=subscriptionK=

^=gr~ph=of=the=function=is=shown=in=figure=beäow=qhe=input=is=z=~nd=the=

output=is= fEzFK=qhe= äogistic=function=is=usefuä=bec~use=it=c~n=t~ke=~s=~n=

input= ~ny= v~äue= from=neg~tive infinity= to= positive= infinityI=where~s= the=

output= is= confined= to= v~äues= between= M= ~nd= NK= qhe= v~ri~bäe= z=

represents= the= exposure= to= some= set= of= independent= v~ri~bäesI= whiäe=

fEzF=represents=the=prob~biäity=of=~=p~rticuä~r=outcomeI=given=th~t=set=of=

expä~n~tory= v~ri~bäesK= qhe= v~ri~bäe= z= is= ~= me~sure= of= the= tot~ä=

contribution=of=~ää= the=independent=v~ri~bäes=used=in=the=modeä=~nd=is=

known=~s=the=äogitK=qhe=v~ri~bäe=z=is=usu~ääy=defined=~s==

OMP

cig UW3 iogistic oegression Curve

where=βM= is=c~ääed=the=?intercept?=~nd=βNI=βOI=βP=I=~nd=so=onI=~re=c~ääed=

the= ?regression= coefficients?=of=xN= IxO= IxP= respectiveäyK=qhe= intercept= is=

the=v~äue=of=z=when=the=v~äue=of=~ää=independent=v~ri~bäes=is=zero=EeKgKI=

the=v~äue=of=z=in=someone=with=no=risk=f~ctorsFK=b~ch=of=the=regression=

coefficients=describes=the=size=of= the=contribution=of= th~t=risk= f~ctorK=^=

positive= regression= coefficient= me~ns= th~t= th~t= expä~n~tory= v~ri~bäe=

incre~ses= the= prob~biäity=of= the= outcomeI=whiäe= ~= neg~tive= regression=

coefficient= me~ns= th~t= v~ri~bäe= decre~ses= the= prob~biäity= of= th~t=

outcomeX= ~= ä~rge= regression= coefficient= me~ns= th~t= the= risk= f~ctor=

strongäy= infäuences= the= prob~biäity= of= th~t= outcomeX= whiäe= ~= ne~rJzero=

regression=coefficient=me~ns=th~t= th~t=risk=f~ctor=h~s=äittäe=infäuence=on=

the=prob~biäity=of= th~t=outcomeK=iogistic= regression= is=~=usefuä=w~y=of=

describing=the=reä~tionship=between=one=or=more=independent=v~ri~bäes=

EeKgKI=~geI=sexI=etcKF= ~nd= ~=bin~ry= response=v~ri~bäeI=expressed=~s=~=

OMQ

prob~biäityI= th~t=h~s= onäy= two=possibäe= v~äuesI= such= ~s= de~th= E?de~d?= or=

?not=de~d?FK=

kow=one=h~s=to=determine=the=decision=mode=of=~=consumer=to=predict=

his= choice= in= ~= given= situ~tionI= the= prob~biäity= of= oper~ting= in= ^s_j=

Em^s_jF= is= given= by= the= äogistic= tr~nsform~tionK= iet=Ch= be= ~= score= th~t=

represent= tendency= of= ~= consumer= h= of= e= consumers= to= oper~te= in=

^s_j=modeK==

m^s_j=Z=cEChF=where=c=denotes=the=äogistic=function=

=

= = = = EUF=

=

aifferent= consumers= h~ve= different= v~äues= of= Ch= ~s= they= differ= in=

tendency=to=oper~te=in=^s_jK=qhe=score=of=Ch=is=~=sum=of=fixed=effects=

~nd= r~ndom=effectsK= qhe= fixed= effects= c~n= be= ~= function= of= observed=

consumer=ch~r~cteristics= äike=demogr~phic=ch~r~cteristicsK=qhe=modeä=

here=wiää=consider=onäy=the=r~ndom=effects=infäuence=on=ChK=^ssume=th~t=

~=consumer=wiää=be=in=one=of=the=two=modesK=qhen=the=prob~biäity=th~t=

he= is= oper~ting= in= ^s_j= mode= is= compäement~ry= of= he= oper~ting= in=

ls_j=modeK==

m^s_j=Z=N=J=mls_jK=lr=N=J=cEChF=Z=cEJChF=

mEchoice=Z=iW=βI=β”I=hF=Z=mEchoice=Z=i=|=^s_jW=βFm^s_j=H=mEchoice=Z=i=|=ls_jW=β”Fmls_j=

= = = = = = = = ===========================EVF=

qhenI=

mEchoice = iW βI β”I hF=mEchoice = i|AsBjW βFcEChFHmEchoice = i|lsBjWβ” FcEJChF

ENMF=

es

N H es cEsF =

OMR

qhe=tot~ä=number=of=p~r~meters= in= the=modeä=Z=N=H=O^I=where=^= is= th=

number=of=p~r~meters=in=β=vector=~nd=^=is=the=number=of=β”=vector=~nd=

one=p~r~meter=corresponding=to=ChK==

UWRWQ The iikelihood cunction with aata

^ssume= th~t=on=e~ch=of= t= choice=where= t=Z=NI=OI=PI= KK=qI=one=observe=

choice=yt= in= the=choice=set= fK=~ää=observed=choices=on=qh=occ~sions=of=

the= hth= = counsumer= is= denoted= by= vhK= äet= N= H= O^= p~r~meters= be=

coääectiveäy=denoted=by=θ=Z=xβI=β”I=chzK=pome=of=the=^=~ttributes=of=e~ch=

of=the=f=options=v~ry=from=occ~sion=to=occ~sionI=the=pEchoice=Z=i|=^s_jX=

βF= ~nd= pEchoice= Z= i|= ls_jX= β”F= ~nd= pEchoice= Z= iF= ~äso= v~ry= from=

occ~sion= to= occ~sionK= qhe= occ~sion= specific= v~äues= of= these= ~re=

denoted= by= ptEchoice =Z =N| =^s_jX =βF =~nd =ptEchoice =Z =N| =ls_jX =β”FI =

ptEchoice=Z=i|βI=β”I=ch=F=respectiveäyK==

qwo= forms= of= äikeäihood= function= for= the= qh= observed= choicesK= aenote=

the= decision= mode= of= the= consumer= on= tth= oc~~sion =~s =mtK= iet= use=

consider=mt=~s=~=_ernouääi=r~ndom=v~ri~bäe=with=mt=Z=N=or=M~ccording=to=

whether= the= decision= mode= on= the= tth= occ~sion =is =^s_j =or =ls_jK =

bxpected=v~äue=of=mt=is=bEmtF=Z=cEchFK=ff=one=observe=the=v~äues=of=the=

mt=for=e~ch=of=the=qh=occ~sionsI=the=äikeäihood=for=the=coääection=of==e~ch=

choice=observed=for=the=consumer=c~n=be=written=~s==

iEθ;vhF = Π xmtptEyt|AsBj; βF H EN – mtFptEyt| lsBj;β”Fz ENNF =one=do=not=observe=the=v~äues=of=mNI=mOI=…=mqhI=so=the=äikeäihood=th~t=

is=considered=is= the=expect~tion=of=iEθXvhF=over=the=re~äiz~tion=of={mt}K=

t=N

OMS

there=~re= two=c~ses=here= ENF= time= inv~ri~nt= EOF= time=v~ryingK=_oth= the=

forms=of=the=äikeäihood=posit=th~t=the=prob~biäity=of=oper~ting=in=^s_j=is=

given=by=cEchFK=qhe=time=inv~ri~nt=views=decision=~s=st~bäeK=

UWRWR aual jodeTime invariant versionK==

fn= time= –= inv~ri~nt= version= is= ~= consumer= oper~tes= in= ^s_j= on= one=

occ~sionI= the= consumer= oper~tes= on=^s_j= on=~ää= occ~sionsK= fn= time=

inv~ri~nt= versionI= the= {mt}= re~äiz~tions= ~re= reä~ted= in= th~t= they= ~re=

constr~ined=to=be=equ~äK=bither=mt=Z=N=for =~ää =t =or =mt=Z=M=for =~ää =t =whiäe=

m~int~ining= e~ch= expected= v~äue= ~t= bEmtF= Z= cEchFK =C~ää =this =~s =time =

inv~ri~nt=bec~use=the=v~äue=of=mt=within=~=consumer=does=not=v~ry=over=

timeK==

iet= iEθXvhF =Z =itimeJinv~ri~nt= ~nd= äet= the= common= v~äue= t~ken= by= {mt}= be=

denoted=by=just=mI=equ~tion=EVF=c~n=be=simpäified=~s==

=iEθ;vhF = m ΠxptEyt| AsBj; βFz H EN – mF ΠxptEyt| lsBj; β”Fz ENOF ===kow==bEmtF=Z=cEchFI=thenI=equ~tion=ENOF=c~n=be=written=~s= ==

itimeJinv~ri~nt(θ;vhF = cEchF Πx ptEyt| AsBj; βFz H cEJchF ΠxptEyt| lsBj; β”Fz =

t=N t=N

qh qh

t=N t=N

qh qh

OMT

tinBrdp code for aual jode – Time fnvariant ==#jodeä=pt~tement=for=eybrid=qime=fnv~ri~nt=jode=

modeä==

{=

#key=modeä=st~tements=on=individu~ä=beh~vior=

=

for=Enthchoice=in=NW=nchoiceF= {=

= for=Enthbr~nd=in=N=W=nbr~ndsF= {=

= = for=E=nthKchoiceKmode=in=N=W=nKchoiceKmodesF= {=

= = = äogEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeI=nthchoiceI=nthbr~ndzF=YJ==

= =

= bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezInthbr~ndz=H==

= =

= inprodEbet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezI==

= = = Enbr~nds=H=NFWEnbr~nds=H=npredsFzI=xxnthchoiceI=

NWnpredsInthbr~ndInthKchoiceKmodezF=

= = = = pxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndz=YJ==

= = = = muxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndz=L=

sumEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceIzFX=

= = }============================================================================================================================

= }=

= #yxnthchoicez=~=

dc~tEpxchoiceKmodexwhichKhhxnthchoicezzInthchoiceIzFX=

}=

OMU

#priors=on=individu~ä=äeveä=p~r~meters=

for=Enthhh=in=NWnhhF= {=

= choiceKmodexnthhhz=~dc~tEpKchoiceKmodexzF=

= for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NW=nKchoiceKmodesF= {=

= bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhINz=YJ=M=#=for=identific~tion=

= bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhIOWnbet~sz=~=

dmnormEmuKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIzI=

= qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzF=

= = }=

= }=

= pKchoiceKmodexNWnKchoiceKmodesz=~=ddirch=

EonesKvecKäenKnmodesxzFX=

= for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NW=nKchoiceKmodesF= {=

= = onesKvecKäenKnmodesxnthKchoiceKmodez=YJN=

= }=

#hyperpriors=on=p~r~meters=of=priors=on=individu~ä=äeveä=p~r~meters=

for=E=nthKchoiceKmode=in=NW=nKchoiceKmodesF= {=

= muKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sz=~=dmnormEzeroKvecxzI=

sm~ääKm~trixxIzFX=

= qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sI=NWnKfreeKbet~sz~=

dwishEsm~ääKm~trixxIzInKfreeKbet~sFX=

= }=

= for=Enthbet~=in=NWnKfreeKbet~sF= {=

= zeroKvecxnthbet~z=YJ=MX=

= sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~z=YJ=MKMMNX=

OMV

= = for=Enthbet~Kd~sh=in=Enthbet~=H=NFWnKfreeKbet~sF= {=

= = sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~Kd~shz=YJ=MKMMMRX=

= = sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Kd~shInthbet~zYJMKMMMRX=

= = = }=

= = }= }=

=#=nodes=cre~ted=onäy=for=monitoring=

=for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={=

===me~nKpKchoiceKmodexnthKchoiceKmodez=YJ=

me~nEpKchoiceKmodexInthKchoiceKmodezF=

=}=

=for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={=

===sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sINWnKfreeKbet~sz=YJ=

inverseEqKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzFX=

===for=Enthbet~=in=NWnKfreeKbet~sF={=

=====sigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z=YJ=

sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~Inthbet~zX=

=====sqrtKsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z=YJ=

sqrtEsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~zFX=

== = ==}=

== }=

}=

=UWRWS aual jode Time –varying versionK

qhe={mt}=re~äiz~tions=~re=unreä~ted=in=th~t=they=~re=independent=dr~ws=

of=_ernouääi=v~ri~bäes=with=common=expect~tion=cEchFK=qhe=v~äue=of=mt=

ONM

is= v~rying= over= timeX= henceI= this= version= is= c~ääed= ~= timeJv~rying=

versionK=

== itimeJv~rying(θ;vhF = ΠxcEchF ptEyt| AsBj; βFz H cEJchF xptEyt| lsBj; β”Fz ENQF ====qhe=term=cEchF=is=~=prior=prob~biäity=~nd=does=not=depend=on=~ny=known=

ch~r~cteristics=of=the=consumerK=

#=Code=for=au~ä=jode=qime=s~ri~nt=

modeä={=

=#=key=modeä=st~tements=for=individu~ä=äeveä=choice=

=for=Enthchoice=in=NWnchoicesF={=

===choiceKmodexnthchoicez=~=dc~tEpKchoiceKmodexwhichKhhxnthchoicezIzF=

===for=Enthbr~nd=in=NWnbr~ndsF={=

=====for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={=

=======äogEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndzF=YJ=

bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezInthbr~ndz=H=

inprodEbet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezIEnbr~ndsHNFWEnbr~n

dsHnpredsFzIxxnthchoiceINWnpredsInthbr~ndInthKchoiceKmodezF=

=======pxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndz=YJ=

muxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceI=

nthbr~ndzLsumEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceIzFX=

=====}=

===}=

t=N

qh

ONN

#yxnthchoicez=~=dc~tEpxchoiceKmodexnthchoicezInthchoiceIzFX=

=}=

#=priors=on=individu~ä=äeveä=choice=p~r~meters=

=

=for=Enthhh=in=NWnhhF={=

===pKchoiceKmodexnthhhINWnKchoiceKmodesz=~=

ddirchEonesKvecKäenKnmodesxzF=

===for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={=

=====bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhINz=YJ=M=#=for=identific~tion=

=====bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhIOWnbet~sz=~=

dmnormEmuKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIzI=qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzF=

===}=

=}=

=for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={=

===onesKvecKäenKnmodesxnthKchoiceKmodez=YJ=N=

=}=

=#hyperpriors=on=p~r~meters=of=priors=on=individu~ä=äeveä=choice=

p~r~meters=

=for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={=

===muKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sz=~=dmnormEzeroKvecxzI=

sm~ääKm~trixxIzFX=

===qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sINWnKfreeKbet~sz=~=

dwishEsm~ääKm~trixxIzInKfreeKbet~sFX=

=}=

=for=Enthbet~=in=NWnKfreeKbet~sF={=

ONO

===zeroKvecxnthbet~z=YJ=MX=

===sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~z=YJMKMMNX=

===for=Enthbet~Kd~sh=in=Enthbet~HNFWnKfreeKbet~sF={=

=====sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~Kd~shz=YJ=MKMMMRX=

=====sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Kd~shInthbet~z=YJ=MKMMMRX=

===}=

=}=

=#=nodes=cre~ted=onäy=for=monitoring=

=for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={=

===me~nKpKchoiceKmodexnthKchoiceKmodez=YJ=

me~nEpKchoiceKmodexInthKchoiceKmodezF=

=}=

=for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={=

===sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sINWnKfreeKbet~sz=YJ=

inverseEqKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzFX=

===for=Enthbet~=in=NWnKfreeKbet~sF={=

=====sigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z=YJ=

sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~Inthbet~zX=

=====sqrtKsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z=YJ=

sqrtEsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~zFX=

=== = =}=

== }==

}=

ONP

UWS The eeterogeneity

qhe=p~r~meters=of=the=modeä=wiää=v~ry=from=consumer=to=consumer=~s=

their= t~ste= for= the= ~ttributes= wiää= differ= ~nd= wiää= h~ve= different=

propensities= to= oper~te= in= ^s_jK= qhese= differences= ~re= due= to=

unobserved= heterogeneityK= qo= modeä= this= heterogeneityI= one= c~n= use=

hier~rchic~ä= _~yes= modeä= ~nd= estim~te= the= modeä= by= j~rkov= Ch~in=

jonte=C~räo=EjCjCF=methodsK==

Consider=~=consumer=E~=househoädF=hI=~nd=the=p~r~meter=vector=of=this=

househoäd=~s=θh=where=h=Z=θNI=θOI=θPI=…θe=~re=independent=dr~ws=from=

d~ussi~n= gener~ting= distributionK= iet= the= me~n= ~nd= v~ri~nce= of= this=

distribution= be= μ= ~nd= ∑= respectiveäy with= the= two= being= coääectiveäy=

design~ted=~s=ΘK=qhe=number=of=eäements=design~ted=~s=Θ=is=d=Z=N=H=

O^K=

Θ = x μI ∑z

===== = = = Θh ~ kEθ;ΘF

qhe=äikeäihood=b~sed=on=vh=is=c~äcuä~ted=~s=foääows=

=

================================iEΘX=vhF=Z=∫=iEθX=vhFkEθ;ΘFdθ==========

qhe= äikeäihood= in= the= integr~nd= c~n= be= b~sed= on= either= the= time= –=

inv~ri~nt=or=the=time=–=v~rying=äikeäihood=formK=qhe=äikeäihood=for=~ää=the=

fuää=coääection=of=choices=observed=over=~ää=consumers=is=~s=foääowsW=

expJNLOEθ – μFq∑JN(θ – μF kEθI ΘF =

2ΠdLO|∑|NLO

ONQ

===

iEΘF = ΠiEΘ;vhF ===fnference=c~n=be=m~de=~bout=Θ=by=dr~wing=r~ndom=v~ri~tes=from=the=

_~yesi~n=posterior=density=of=ΘK=jCjC=w~s=used= to=construct=dr~ws=

from=posterior=density=of=ΘK=tin_rdp=progr~m=is=used=to=construct=the=

dr~wsK= Consumers’= exhibit= ~ver~ge= choice= beh~vior= th~t= is=

intermedi~te= to= ^s_j=~nd=ls_j=~nd= the= position=of= intermedi~cy= is=

governed=by= the= term=chK=qhe=decision=mode=c~n=be=viewed=either=~s=

time= inv~ri~nt= in= the= sense= th~t= it= does= not= ch~nge= from=occ~sion= to=

occ~sion=or=time=v~rying=in=the=sense=th~t=it=c~n=v~ry=from=occ~sion=to=

occ~sion=with=stoch~stic=dependenceK=ff=~=consumer=oper~tes=in=^s_j=

modeI=the=choice=outcome=is=governed=by=βsK=ff=~=consumer=oper~tes=in=

ls_j= modeI= the= choice= outcome= is= governed= by= βs”K= qhe= hybrid=

beh~vior=in=choice=m~king=is=depicted=by=θh=Z=xβhI=βh”I=chz=

=UWT lther ptatistical aistributions rsed in tinBrdp

Code

UWTWN Categorical aistribution

fn= prob~biäity= theory= ~nd= st~tisticsI= ~= c~tegoric~ä= distribution is= ~=

prob~biäity=distribution=describing=the=outcomes=of=~=r~ndom=procedure=

whose=outcome= is= the= identity=of=one=of=~= finite=number=of=c~tegories=

into=which=~n=item=might=be=putK=qhere=is=not=necess~riäy=~n=underäying=

ordering= of= these= c~tegoriesI= but= numeric~ä= ä~beäs= ~re= ~tt~ched= for=

convenience=in=describing=the=distributionK=

h=N

e

ONR

^= c~tegoric~ä= distribution is= ~= discrete= prob~biäity= distribution= whose=

s~mpäe= sp~ce= is= the= set= of= n= individu~ääy= identified= itemsK= ft= is= the=

gener~äiz~tion= of= the= _ernouääi= distribution= for= ~= c~tegoric~ä= r~ndom=

v~ri~bäeK=cor=n=items=f=ä~beäed={NI=OI=KKKI=n}I=the=prob~biäity=m~ss=function=

f= isW= where= represents= the= prob~biäity= of= seeing= eäement= i= ~nd= K= fn=

~nother=formuä~tionI=the=s~mpäe=sp~ce=c~n=be=considered=to=be=the=set=

of=NJofJk=encoded=E~äso=known=~s=NJofJh=encodedF=r~ndom=vectors=x of=

dimension=n=h~ving=the=property=th~t=I=iKeK=ex~ctäy=one=eäement=is==

=

=

~nd=the=others=~re=zeroK=fn=this=formuä~tionI=the=c~tegoric~ä=distribution=

is=~=speci~ä=c~se=of=the=muätinomi~ä=distribution=in=which=the=p~r~meter=

n= of= the= muätinomi~ä= distribution= is= fixed= ~t= NK= qhe= prob~biäity= m~ss=

function=f=in=this=formuä~tion=isW=

=where=pi=represents=the=prob~biäity=of=seeing=eäement=i=~nd===

UWTWO airichlet aistribution

fn=prob~biäity=~nd=st~tisticsI=the=airichäet=distribution E~fter=goh~nn=meter=

dust~v= iejeune= airichäetFI= often= denoted= airEαFI= is= ~= f~miäy= of=

continuous= muätiv~ri~te= prob~biäity= distributions= p~r~meterized= by= the=

vector=α=of=positive=re~äsK=ft=is=the=muätiv~ri~te=gener~äiz~tion=of=the=bet~=

distributionI= ~nd= conjug~te= prior= of= the= c~tegoric~ä= distribution= ~nd=

ONS

muätinomi~ä= distribution= in= _~yesi~n= st~tisticsK= qh~t= isI= its= prob~biäity=

density=function=returns=the=beäief=th~t=the==prob~biäities=of=h=riv~ä=events=

~re=given=th~t=e~ch=event=h~s=been=observed=timesK=

mrob~bility=density=function=

qhe=airichäet=distribution=of=order=h=≥=O=with=p~r~meters=αNI=KKKI=αh=[=M=

h~s=~=prob~biäity=density=function=with=respect=to=iebesgue=me~sure=on=

the=bucäide~n=sp~ce=oh–N=given=by=

for= ~ää= xNI= KKKI= xh–N= [= M= s~tisfying= xN= H =KKK =H =xh–N= Y =NI =where =xh= is= ~n=

~bbrevi~tion=for=N=–=xN=–=KKK=–=xh–NK=qhe=density=is=zero=outside=this=open=

Eh= −= NFJdimension~ä= simpäexK= qhe= norm~äizing= const~nt= is= the=

muätinomi~ä= bet~= functionI= which= c~n= be= expressed= in= terms= of= the=

g~mm~=functionW=

qhe=norm~äizing=const~nt=is=the=muätinomi~ä=bet~=functionI=which=c~n=be=

expressed=in=terms=of=the=g~mm~=functionW=

UWTWP tishart aistribution

fn= st~tisticsI= the= tish~rt= distribution is= ~= gener~äiz~tion= to= muätipäe=

dimensions=of=the=chiJsqu~re=distributionI=orI=in=the=c~se=of=nonJinteger=

degrees=of=freedomI=of=the=g~mm~=distributionK=ft=is=n~med=in=honor=of=

gohn=tish~rtI=who=first=formuä~ted=the=distribution=in=NVOUK=

ONT

ft= is=~ny=of=~=f~miäy=of=prob~biäity=distributions=for=nonneg~tiveJdefinite=

m~trixJv~äued= r~ndom= v~ri~bäes= E?r~ndom= m~trices?FK= qhese=

distributions= ~re= of= gre~t= import~nce= in= the= estim~tion= of= cov~ri~nce=

m~trices=in=muätiv~ri~te=st~tisticsK=

aefinition=

puppose= u= is= ~n= n= ×= p= m~trixI= e~ch= row= of= which= is= independentäy=

dr~wn=from=pJv~ri~te=norm~ä=distribution=with=zero=me~nW=

=qhen= the=tish~rt= distribution= is= the= prob~biäity=distribution=of= the= p×p=

r~ndom=m~trix==

==known=~s= the=sc~tter=m~trixK=lne= indic~tes=th~t=p=h~s=th~t=prob~biäity=

distribution=by=writing==

=qhe=positive=integer=n=is=the=number=of=degrees=of=freedomK=pometimes=

this=is=written=tEsI=pI=nFK==

ff=p=Z=N=~nd=s=Z=N=then=this=distribution=is=~=chiJsqu~re=distribution=with=

n=degrees=of=freedomK=

UWU lccurrence

qhe= tish~rt= distribution= ~rises= ~s= the= distribution= of= the= s~mpäe=

cov~ri~nce=m~trix=for=~=s~mpäe=from=~=muätiv~ri~te=norm~ä=distributionK=

ft= occurs= frequentäy= in= äikeäihoodJ= r~tio= tests= in= muätiv~ri~te= st~tistic~ä=

~n~äysisK=ft=~äso=~rises=in=the=spectr~ä=theory=of=r~ndom=m~trices=~nd=in=

muätidimension~ä=_~yesi~n=~n~äysisK=

mrob~biäity=density=function=

ONU

qhe=tish~rt=distribution=c~n=be=ch~r~cterized=by=its=prob~biäity=density=

functionI=~s=foääowsK=

iet=t be=~=p=×=p=symmetric=m~trix=of=r~ndom=v~ri~bäes=th~t=is=positive=

definiteK=iet=s be=~=EfixedF=positive=definite=m~trix=of=size=p=×=pK=qhenI=if=

n=≥=pI=t h~s=~=tish~rt=distribution=with=n=degrees=of=freedom=if=it=h~s=~=

prob~biäity=density=function=ft given=by=

==there=ΓpE·F=is=the=muätiv~ri~te=g~mm~=function=defined=~s=

==fn=f~ct=the=~bove=definition=c~n=be=extended=to=~ny=re~ä=n=[=p=−=NK=ff=n=≤=

pJOI=then=the=tish~rt=no=äonger=h~s=~=densityJJinste~d=it=represents=~=

singuä~r=distributionK==

UWV aata Collection

qhree= hundred= ~nd= twenty= five= househoäds= from= the= st~te= of=

j~h~r~shtr~= p~rticip~ted= in= the= surveyK= a~t~= coääection= w~s= done= for=

three=purch~se=occ~sions=of= the=s~mpäed=househoäds=which=m~kes=~=

tot~ä=of=nine=hundred=~nd=seventy=five=observ~tions=coääectiveäyK=qhree=

äe~ding=br~nds=of=detergents=of=one=kgK=p~ck=were=considered=for=our=

studyK=

=

=

=

=

ONV

prKno=== k~me=of=mä~ce== ===ko=of=f~miäies=p~rticip~ted=

N= = _eed=== = = = OR=

O= = m~rhb~ni= = = = OR=

P= = hoäh~pur= = = = OR=

Q= = phoä~pur= = = = OR=

R= = ^ur~ng~b~d= = = = OR=

S= = ^mr~v~ti= = = = OR=

T= = mune= = = = = OR=

U= = jumb~i= = = = TR=

V= = k~gpur= = = = OR=

NM= = qh~ne== = = = OR = =

NN= = i~tur= = = = = OR=

= = = = = = = =

= = = = = qot~ä===========POR=

UWNM bstimation of jodel marameters

b~ch= p~rt= of= the= modeä= w~s= estim~ted= sep~r~teäy= by= tin_rdp=

Etindows= sersion= of= _~yesi~n= fnference= rsing= dibbs= p~mpäingF=

progr~mK=qhe=p~r~meters=of=^s_jI=ls_jI=au~ä=jode|qime=fnv~ri~nt=

~nd= au~ä= jode|qime= v~ri~nt= were= estim~tedK= b~ch= moduäe= w~s=

expressed=~s=~=tin_rdp=progr~m=~nd=is=estim~ted=by= the=softw~reK=

pingäe= ch~in= of= initi~ä= v~äues= w~s= usedK= qhe= first= NMIMMM= dr~ws= were=

disc~rded=from=the=ch~in=~nd=then=the=next=NMIMMM=dr~ws=were=used=to=

~ssess=the=convergence=~nd=to=m~ke=inferenceK==

OOM

Ch~pter V tinBugs Code for Br~nd Choice jodel

a~t~ An~lysis

VWN tinBrdp Code for AsBj

VWO tinBrdp Code for lsBj

VWP tinBrdp Code for au~l jode qime fnv~ri~nt

VWQ tinBrdp Code for au~l jode qime s~ri~nt

OON

Ch~pter V

a~t~ An~lysis tinBugs Code for Br~nd Choice jodel

VW1. tin_rdp Code for As_M # jodel pt~tement for AsBj model { #key model st~tements on individu~l beh~vior for Enthchoice in N W nchoiceF { for Enthbr~nd in N W nbr~ndsF { logEmuxnthchoiceInthbr~ndzF YJ bet~KhxwhichKhhxnthchoicezInthbr~ndz H inprodEbet~KhxwhichKhhxnthchoicezI Enbr~nds H NFWEnbr~nds H npredsFzI xxnthchoiceInthbr~ndI NWnpredszF pxnthchoiceInthbr~ndz YJ muxnthchoiceInthbr~ndz L sumEmuxnthchoiceInthbr~ndzF; } } #priors on individu~l level p~r~meters for Enthhh in NWnhhF { bet~KhxnthhhINz YJ M # for identific~tion bet~KhxnthhhIOWnbet~sz ~ dmnormEmuKbet~xnchoiceIzI qKbet~xnchoiceIIzF } pKnthchoicexNWnchoicez ~ ddirch EonesKvecKlenKnmodesxzF; for Enthchoice in NW nchoiceF { onesKvecKlenKnmodesxnthchoicez YJN } #hyperpriors on p~r~meters of priors on individu~l level p~r~meters for E nthchoice in NW nchoiceF { muKbet~xnthchoiceINWnKfreeKbet~sz ~ dmnormEzeroKvecxzI sm~llKm~trixxIzF; qKbet~xnthchoiceINWnKfreeKbet~sI NWnKfreeKbet~sz~ dwishEsm~llKm~trixxIzInKfreeKbet~sF; } for Enthbet~ in NWnKfreeKbet~sF { zeroKvecxnthbet~z YJ M; sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~z YJ MKMMN; for Enthbet~Kd~sh in Enthbet~ H NFWnKfreeKbet~sF { sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~Kd~shz YJ MKMMMR; sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Kd~shInthbet~zYJMKMMMR;

OOO

}} VWO. tin_rdp Code for lsM_ Module jodelK=={=logitEpxizF YJ ~lph~ H bKbr~ndOGbr~ndOxiz H bKbr~ndPGbr~ndPxiz H bKmriceGmricexizH bKce~tGce~txiz HbKaispGaispxiz #likelihood function for e~ch d~t~ point lowxiz ~ dbernEpxizF ~lph~ ~ dnormEMKMINKMbJOF #prior for intercept bKbr~ndO ~ dnormEMKMINKMbJOF #prior for slopes bKbr~ndP ~ dnormEMKMINKMbJOF bKmrice ~ dnormEMKMINKMbJOF bKce~t ~ dnormEMKMINKMbJOF bKaisp ~ dnormEMKMINKMbJOF predKprice YJ expE~lph~ H bKbr~ndO H bKbr~ndP H bKmrice H bKce~t H bKaispF L EN H expE~lph~ H bKbr~ndO H bKbr~ndP H bKmrice H bKce~t H bKaispFF }

OOP

VW3. tin_rdp code for aual_Mode Time fnvariant Module #jodel pt~tement for eybrid qime fnv~ri~nt jode model { #key model st~tements on individu~l beh~vior for Enthchoice in NW nchoiceF { for Enthbr~nd in N W nbr~ndsF { for E nthKchoiceKmode in N W nKchoiceKmodesF { logEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeI nthchoiceI nthbr~ndzF YJ bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezInthbr~ndz H inprodEbet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezI Enbr~nds H NFWEnbr~nds H npredsFzI xxnthchoiceI NWnpredsInthbr~ndInthKchoiceKmodezF pxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndz YJ muxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndz L sumEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceIzF; } } #yxnthchoicez ~ dc~tEpxchoiceKmodexwhichKhhxnthchoicezzInthchoiceIzF; } #priors on individu~l level p~r~meters for Enthhh in NWnhhF { choiceKmodexnthhhz ~dc~tEpKchoiceKmodexzF for EnthKchoiceKmode in NW nKchoiceKmodesF { bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhINz YJ M # for identific~tion bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhIOWnbet~sz ~ dmnormEmuKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIzI qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzF } } pKchoiceKmodexNWnKchoiceKmodesz ~ ddirch EonesKvecKlenKnmodesxzF; for EnthKchoiceKmode in NW nKchoiceKmodesF { onesKvecKlenKnmodesxnthKchoiceKmodez YJN } #hyperpriors on p~r~meters of priors on individu~l level p~r~meters for E nthKchoiceKmode in NW nKchoiceKmodesF { muKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sz ~ dmnormEzeroKvecxzI sm~llKm~trixxIzF; qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sI NWnKfreeKbet~sz~ dwishEsm~llKm~trixxIzInKfreeKbet~sF;

OOQ

} for Enthbet~ in NWnKfreeKbet~sF { zeroKvecxnthbet~z YJ M; sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~z YJ MKMMN; for Enthbet~Kd~sh in Enthbet~ H NFWnKfreeKbet~sF { sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~Kd~shz YJ MKMMMR; sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Kd~shInthbet~zYJMKMMMR; } } } # nodes cre~ted only for monitoring for EnthKchoiceKmode in NWnKchoiceKmodesF { me~nKpKchoiceKmodexnthKchoiceKmodez YJ me~nEpKchoiceKmodexInthKchoiceKmodezF } for EnthKchoiceKmode in NWnKchoiceKmodesF { sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sINWnKfreeKbet~sz YJ inverseEqKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzF; for Enthbet~ in NWnKfreeKbet~sF { sigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z YJ sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~Inthbet~z; sqrtKsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z YJ sqrtEsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~zF; } } }

OOR

VW4. tin_rdp Code for aual_Mode Time sariant Module model { # key model st~tements for individu~l level choice for Enthchoice in NWnchoicesF { choiceKmodexnthchoicez ~ dc~tEpKchoiceKmodexwhichKhhxnthchoicezIzF for Enthbr~nd in NWnbr~ndsF { for EnthKchoiceKmode in NWnKchoiceKmodesF { logEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndzF YJ bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezInthbr~ndz H inprodEbet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezIEnbr~ndsHNFWEnbr~ndsHnpredsFzIxxnthchoiceINWnpredsInthbr~ndInthKchoiceKmodezF pxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndz YJ muxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceI nthbr~ndzLsumEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceIzF; } } #yxnthchoicez ~ dc~tEpxchoiceKmodexnthchoicezInthchoiceIzF; } # priors on individu~l level choice p~r~meters for Enthhh in NWnhhF { pKchoiceKmodexnthhhINWnKchoiceKmodesz ~ ddirchEonesKvecKlenKnmodesxzF for EnthKchoiceKmode in NWnKchoiceKmodesF { bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhINz YJ M # for identific~tion bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhIOWnbet~sz ~ dmnormEmuKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIzI qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzF } } for EnthKchoiceKmode in NWnKchoiceKmodesF { onesKvecKlenKnmodesxnthKchoiceKmodez YJ N } #hyperpriors on p~r~meters of priors on individu~l level choice p~r~meters for EnthKchoiceKmode in NWnKchoiceKmodesF { muKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sz ~ dmnormEzeroKvecxzI sm~llKm~trixxIzF; qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sINWnKfreeKbet~sz ~ dwishEsm~llKm~trixxIzInKfreeKbet~sF; } for Enthbet~ in NWnKfreeKbet~sF { zeroKvecxnthbet~z YJ M; sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~z YJMKMMN;

OOS

for Enthbet~Kd~sh in Enthbet~HNFWnKfreeKbet~sF { sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~Kd~shz YJ MKMMMR; sm~llKm~trixxnthbet~Kd~shInthbet~z YJ MKMMMR; } } # nodes cre~ted only for monitoring for EnthKchoiceKmode in NWnKchoiceKmodesF { me~nKpKchoiceKmodexnthKchoiceKmodez YJ me~nEpKchoiceKmodexInthKchoiceKmodezF } for EnthKchoiceKmode in NWnKchoiceKmodesF { sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sINWnKfreeKbet~sz YJ inverseEqKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzF; for Enthbet~ in NWnKfreeKbet~sF { sigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z YJ sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~Inthbet~z; sqrtKsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z YJ sqrtEsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~zF; } } } =qhe=~bove=codes=~re=cre~ted=for=the=four=moduäes=for=br~nd=choice=~nd=

executed=in=tin_rdpK==

OOT

Ch~pter NM cindings

OOU

Ch~pter NM cindings

NK eypothesis eMN C eNN

qhe=study=reve~äs=th~t=consumers=do=not=m~ke=use=of=fuää=inform~tion=they=

receive= on= every= br~nd= they= h~ve= in= their= consider~tionK= fnste~d= they=

m~ke=use=of=short=cuts=to=~rrive=~t=~=decisionK=

OK eypothesis eMO C eNO

aue=to=the=constr~ints=imposed=by=cognitive=resourcesI=consumers=~dopt=

heuristics= to=~rrive=~t=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=rse=of=heuristics=m~y=

induce=~=bi~s=in=the=decision=of=the=consumerK=qhe=kind=of=heuristics=used=

by= consumer= depends= up= on= hisLher= demogr~phic= ~nd= psychogr~phic=

ch~r~cteristicsK= qhe= finding= is= heuristics= does= h~ve= imp~ct= on= the=

decisions=of=consumersK=

PK eypothesis eMP C eNPI eMQ C eNQ

Consumers= receive= d~t~= on= the= br~nds= th~t= ~re= present= in= their=

consider~tion=set=through=experienceI=~dvertisements=~nd=t~äk=f~ctorK=qhe=

d~t~=~re= then=stored= in= the= äong= term=memoryK= fn= order= to=use= this=d~t~=

stored=in=the=äong=term=memoryI=it=shouäd=be=retrieved=~nd=brought=into=the=

short= term=memory=where=it= is=processed=~nd=converted=into= inform~tionK=

_ut=the=short=term=memory=c~n=store=onäy=T=H=or=–=O=chunks=of=d~t~=which=

puts=~=restriction=on=the=inform~tion=processing=~nd=us~geK=Consumers=do=

ev~äu~te=the=~ttributes=of=the=br~ndsI=but= inste~d=of=storing=huge=~mount=

OOV

of=inform~tion=on=e~ch=~ttribute=of=e~ch=br~ndI=they=put=the=br~nds=in= the=

order=of=their=preference=~äong=with=the=~ttributes=sc~äeK=Consumers=refer=

to=this=order=whiäe=m~king=~=decision=on=br~nd=choiceK=

QK eypothesis eMR C eNR

Consumers=~re= found= to=be= in=du~ä= st~te=of=mode= whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=

choiceK=qh~t=isI=consumers=oper~te=in=both=the=modes=–=^s_j=~nd=lsj_=

~t=the=s~me=point=in=time=whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=choiceK=qhe=hybrid=or=the=

du~ä= mode= is= either= time= inv~ri~nt= which= me~ns= if= ~= consumer= is= in= ~=

p~rticuä~r=st~te=of=mode=E^s_j=or=ls_jF=he=continues=to=rem~in=in=th~t=

mode=for=~=äong=period=of=time=or=time=v~ri~nt=which=me~ns=the=consumer=

switches= between= the= modes= occ~sion~ääyK= qhe= existence= of= the= du~ä=

mode=is=~äso=st~tistic~ääy=tr~ct~bäe=through=the=_r~nd=Choice=jodeäK=

RK eypothesis eMS C eNS

qhe=four=moduäes=n~meäy=^s_jI=ls_jI=au~ä=jodeä=–=qime=fnv~ri~nt=~nd=

au~ä=jode=–=qime=s~ri~nt=were=estim~ted=using=tin_rdp=progr~mming=

in= the= detergent= c~tegory= of= N= kg= p~ck~gingK= m~neä= d~t~= w~s= coääected=

through= ~= survey= from= POR= househoäds= who= coääectiveäy= m~de= VTR=

purch~ses= in= ~= sp~n= of= three= monthsK= qhe= three= br~nds= considered= for=

d~t~= coääection= were= purfI= ^rieä= C= oinI= henceforthI= known= ~s= _r~ndNI=

_r~ndO=~nd=_r~ndPK=qhe=utiäity=function=in=the=modeä=used=five=~ttributes=–=

~=dummy=term=for=br~ndO=~nd=br~ndP=e~chI=price=term=giving=the=price=in=

rupeesI=~=“fe~ture’=term=th~t=w~s=“N≤=when=the=respondents=were=exposed=

to= the= ~dvertisementI=otherwise= ~= “M≤= w~s=~ssignedI= the=promotion= term=

OPM

t~king= v~äues= “N≤= or= “M≤= when= the= product= w~s= speci~ääy= promotedLnot=

promotedK= qhe= tin_rdp= code= w~s= executed= by= the= softw~re= ~nd= the=

bet~= coefficients= Ep~r~metersF= of= the= moduäes= were= c~äcuä~tedK= qhe=

c~äcuä~tion=of= the=p~r~meters=proves=th~t=consumer=c~n=be= in=one=of= the=

four=st~tes=^s_jI=ls_jI=au~ä=jode=–=qime=fnv~ri~nt=or=au~ä=jode=qime=

s~ri~ntK=cor=moduäes= with=onäy= ^s_j=~nd=ls_jI= five=p~r~meters= for=μ=

~re=estim~ted=for=e~ch=~nd=for=hybrid=modeäsI=both=time=inv~ri~nt=~nd=time=

v~ri~ntI= ten= p~r~meters= ~re= estim~ted= for= e~chK= jCjC= w~s= run= in=

tin_rdp=~nd=the=convergence=of=the=d~t~=w~s=~ssessedK=qhe=foääowing=

fäow=ch~rt=show=the=steps=executed=by=tin_rdp=in=gener~ting=resuätsK=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

OPN

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

=================================Check qr~ce mlots for = Convergence of d~t~

qermin~te progr~m

=bnd

cig NMWN clow Chart of jodel bxecution by tinBrdp

io~d jodel in tinBrdp ~nd checking for errors in code

io~d d~t~ in progr~m

Compile model C lo~d initi~l v~lues

rpd~te the model

oun BurnJfn mrocess to burn out NMIMMM dr~ws

io~d p~r~meters to monitor in s~mple monitor tool

rse rpd~te qool to oun jCjC mrocess C ~ccept the next NMIMMM dr~ws

oefer to ch~pter TI for expl~n~tion of jCjC

oefer to p~ge NRS for reference

Convergence not s~tisf~ctory

Convergence is s~tisf~ctory

ar~w st~tistics of p~r~meters

OPO

ioading fnitial salues

fniti~ä=v~äues=to=the=progr~m=for=the=execution=of=the=jCjC=~ägorithm=were=

provided=by=tin_rdpK==

Burn-in mrocess

qhis=process=is=initi~ted=in=order=to=eäimin~te=the=first=_=iter~tions=from=the=

s~mpäe=to=~void=the=infäuence=of=the=initi~ä=v~äuesK=qhe=first=NMIMMM=dr~ws=

~re= disc~rded= to= ~void= this= infäuence= ~nd= the= next= NMIMMM= dr~ws= ~re=

considered=for=further=~n~äysisK==

Convergence=of=a~t~==

qhis=refers=to=situ~tion=where=the=jCjC=~ägorithm=re~ches=its=equiäibrium=

~nd= gener~tes= v~äues= from= the= desired= t~rget= distributionK= qhe= notion= of=

equiäibrium= distribution= is= reä~ted= to= j~rkov= Ch~in= used= to= construct=

jCjCK=ff=the=~ägorithm=re~ches=the=equiäibrium=st~geI=then=the=gener~ted=

s~mpäe= comes= from= the= t~rget= distribution= ~nd= the= d~t~= ~re= s~id= to=

converge= s~tisf~ctoriäyK= eence= monitoring= the= convergence= of= the=

~ägorithm= is=essenti~ä= for=producing=resuäts= from=the=posterior=distribution=

of=interestK=qr~ce=päot=is=one=w~y=of=monitoring=the=convergence=which=is=

päots=of=iter~tion=versus=the=gener~ted=v~äuesK=ff=~ää=the=v~äues=~re=within=~=

zone= without= strong= periodicities= ~nd= tendenciesI= then= one= c~n= ~ssume=

s~tisf~ctory=convergenceK==

OPP

qr~ce= päots= of= the= p~r~meters= of= ~ää= the= four= moduäes= dispä~yed= beäow=

reve~ä= th~t= convergence= for= e~ch= is= s~tisf~ctory= ~nd= the= resuäts= c~n= be=

~cceptedK==

qhe=m~r~meters=of=the=jodeä=

AsBj jodule

AK marameters of the jodule

_r~ndO= = Z==MKMPMMP=

_r~ndP= = Z==MKNVPVP=

mrice = = = Z=JMKMPSQN=

ce~ture= = = Z==MKMMQQV=

mromotion== Z==MKNTMOM=

BK The Convergence of aata – The Trace mlotsK

muKbet~xNINz

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

muKbet~xNIOz

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

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cig NMWO

Trace mlots for AsBj

^fter= running= jCjC= ~nd= conducting= burnJin= processI= the= ~bove= tr~ce= päots=

indic~te=th~t=the=convergence=of=the=d~t~=is=s~tisf~ctory=~nd=~ccept~bäeK=

OPR

lsBj jodule

AK The parameters of the lsBj module

_r~ndO= = Z=JMKMPT=

_r~ndP= = Z==MKMTV=

mrice = = = Z=JMKMVM=

ce~ture= = = Z=JMKNNN=

mromotion== Z=JMKMRN=

BK Convergence of aata – The Trace mlots

bKbr~ndO

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

==JQMKM==JOMKM====MKM===OMKM===QMKM===SMKM

bKbr~ndP

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==JQMKM==JOMKM====MKM===OMKM===QMKM

bKmrice

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bKce~t

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bKaisp

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=

cig NMWP

Trace mlots for lsBj

^fter= running= jCjC= ~nd= conducting= burnJin= processI= the= ~bove= tr~ce= päots=

indic~te=th~t=the=convergence=of=the=d~t~=is=s~tisf~ctory=~nd=~ccept~bäeK=

OPS

aual jode – Time fnvariant jodule

Attribute Coefficients

_r~ndO= = Z=JMKMNTMN=

_r~ndP= = Z==MKMNOPS=

mrice === = Z=JMKPTNU=

ce~ture== = Z=JMKMVMPO=

mromotion= = = Z==MKMPQNR=

lrdered Coefficients

_r~ndO= = Z==MKMQPV=

_r~ndP= = Z=JMKRMUO=

mrice === = Z==NKOO=

ce~ture== = Z=JMKPMSO=

mromotion= = = Z=JMKMTQV=

Convergence of aata – Trace mlots

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cig NMWQ –Trace mlots for aual jode – Time sariant

^fter= running= jCjC= ~nd= conducting= burnJin= processI= the= ~bove= tr~ce= päots=

indic~te=th~t=the=convergence=of=the=d~t~=is=s~tisf~ctory=~nd=~ccept~bäeK=

aual jode – Time sariant jodule

Attribute Coefficients

_r~ndO= = Z==MKONVS=

_r~ndP= = Z==MKPTMN=

mrice === = Z==MKNPOV=

OPU

ce~ture== = Z=JMKNNQQ=

mromotion= = = Z=JMKRNQQ=

lrdered Coefficients

_r~ndO= = Z==MKNMUO=

_r~ndP= = Z==MKQURV=

mrice === = Z=JMKPVTP=

ce~ture== = Z==MKOSUP=

mromotion= = = Z=JMKNQQN=

Convergence of aata – The Trace mlots

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cig OWR Trace mlots for aual jode – Time sariant

SK= qhe=study=tries=to=find=in=which=mode=–=^s_j=or=ls_jI=consumers=~re=in=

whiäe= m~king= ~=decision= on= br~nd= choiceK=^n~äysis=of= au~ä= jode= modeä=

reve~äs= th~t= RRKOUB= of= the= househoäds= m~de= their= br~nd= choices= by=

rem~ining=in=ls_j=mode=Erefer=t~bäe=^WPWP=in=~nnexureF=

TK= qhe= c~äcuä~tion= of= the= p~r~meters= of= the= four= moduäes= reve~äs= th~t= the=

br~nd= choice= modeä= is= st~tistic~ääy= tr~ct~bäeK= qhe= short= cut= used= by= the=

consumers=most=of=the=time=is=they=put=the=br~nds=in=the=consider~tion=set=

in=the=order=of=their=preferenceK=qhe=order=rem~ins=dorm~nt=for=äong=period=

unäess=~nd=untiä=m~jor=ch~nges=in=the=~ttributes=of=~ny=of=the=br~nds=t~ke=

pä~ceK= qhe= re~sons= for= consumers= to= st~y= in= ordered= b~se= mode= ~re=

b~sic~ääy=due=to=the=äimited=cognitive=resources=~v~iä~bäe=for=the=ev~äu~tion=

of=~ää= the= inform~tion=~nd= the=cost=of= t~king=decisionsK=s~rious=heuristics=

identified=in=m~rketing=domin~te=the=consumer’s=decision=m~king=process=

~nd=äe~ves=the=order=of=preference=unch~nged=for=~=äong=periodK=

OQN

Ch~pter NN Conclusion C oecommend~tions

NNWN Conclusion C oecommend~tions

NNWO iimit~tions of ptudy

NNWP cuture pcope of ptudy

OQO

Ch~pter NN Conclusion C oecommend~tions

NNWN Conclusion C oecommendations

NK= qhe= go~ä= of= this= work= w~s= to= identify= the= use= of= heuristics= by=

consumers=in=their=decision=m~king=process=of=br~nd=choice=in=~=

compäex= environmentK= qhe= c~äcuä~tion= of= the= p~r~meters=

suggest= th~t=br~nd=choice=modeä=deveäoped= is=~= fr~mework= for=

modeäing= choice= beh~vior= which= is= consistent= with= the= existing=

beh~vior~ä=theoriesI=emph~sizes=~=c~us~ä=structur~ä=formuä~tionI=

m~them~tic~ääy= tr~ct~bäe= ~nd= empiric~ääy= verifi~bäeK= qhe= study=

w~s=fäexibäe=enough=to=c~pture=unobserved=heterogeneity=in=the=

choice=beh~vior=stemming=from=

^K= Choice=sets=considered=by=consumersK=

_K= q~ste=v~ri~tions=~cross=consumers==

CK= ^ttitudes=~nd=perceptions=of=consumers=since=underäying=choice=

process=h~s=~=signific~nt=psychoäogic~ä=component=

aK= aecision=protocoäs=~dopted=by=consumers=in=~rriving=~t=~=choiceK=

OK= qhere= is= enough= evidence= th~t= consumers= m~ke= use= of=

heuristics= to= de~ä= with= the= myri~d= of= compäex= steps= in= the=

decision= m~king= processK= qhey= ~re= ~= method= of= soäving=

probäems= or= situ~tions= where= no= formuä~= existsK= eeuristics= ~re=

good=~t=times=but=the=b~d=side=of=it=is=when=they=äe~d=m~rketers=

OQP

~str~yK=qhis=is=when=heuristics=infäuence=consumer’s=judgment=to=

the=point=of=bi~sK=

PK= qhe=consumers=~re=expected=to=be=in=du~ä=mode=th~t=is=–=^s_j=

~nd=ls_jK=jost=of=the=timeI=consumers=~re=observed=to=be=in=

ordered= v~äue= b~se= mode= whiäe= m~king= ~= br~nd= choice= in= the=

cjCd= c~tegoryK= qhe= consumer= sh~ää= not= t~ke= much= effort= to=

switch= from=ls_j=to=^s_j=unäess=~=m~jor= ch~nge=h~s= t~ken=

pä~ce= in= ~ny= ~ttributes= of= the= br~nds= in= his= consider~tion= setK=

qhis= m~y= be= due= to= the= use= of= one= or= more= of= the= foääowing=

heuristicsK=

^K= mrice eeuristics= which= suggests= th~t= consumers= judge=

expensive=products=to=be=of=high=qu~äityK=

_K= Brand kame eeuristics=which=st~tes=th~t=consumers=f~vor~bäy=

ev~äu~te=those=products=with=positiveäy=v~äenced=br~nd=n~mesK=

CK= bffort eeuristics= suggest= th~t= consumers= wiää= judge= products=

th~t=took=~=äong=time=to=produce=to=be=of=high=v~äue=

aK= fdiosyncratic cit eeuristics suggest= consumers= wiää= ev~äu~te=

consumer= äoy~äty= progr~ms= Ebuy= two= get= one= freeF= with=

person~ääy=reäev~nt=fe~tures=to=be=more=v~äu~bäeK==

bK= Audience oesponse eeuristics= st~tes= th~t= ~n= enthusi~stic=

~udience= response= to= ~= mess~ge= wiää= äe~d= consumers= to=

positiveäy=reg~rd=or=~gree=with=~=mess~geK==

cK= bndorsement eeuristics= suggest= th~t= peopäe= wiää= find=

mess~ges=more=convincing=if=~=positiveäy=reg~rded=org~niz~tion=

endorses=themK=

OQQ

dK= bxpertise eeuristics=~re=the=ones=where=peopäe=~re=convinced=

by=experts=th~n=novicesK=

eK= Brand Anchoring is= ~=heuristics= through=which=consumers= try=

to=form=im~ges=of= the=br~nds=~nd=try= to=h~ve=~=comp~rison=on=

the=b~sis=of= these=im~gesK=qhe=br~nd=~nchoring=effects=c~n=be=

investig~ted=for=ex~mpäe=in=the=context=of=coJbr~nded=identitiesK=

cor= ex~mpäe= mobiäe= phones= offered= by= pony= bricsonK= ft= is=

studied= th~t=one=br~nd=m~y=serve=~s=~n=~nchor=~nd=~ffect= the=

im~ge=structure=of= the=coJbr~nded= identity= Epony=bricsonF=~s=~=

whoäeK=

QK= rse= of= heuristics= m~y= induce= ~= bi~s= in= the= decision= of= the=

consumerK=^=m~rketer=must=be=~w~re=of=the=heuristics=used=by=

consumers= ~nd= deveäop= m~rketing= str~tegies= to= t~ckäe= ~nd=

convert=them=to=~dv~nt~geK=

RK= qhe=consumers=~re=found=to=be=in=du~ä=mode=th~t=isI=both=^s_j=

~nd=ls_jI=whiäe=m~king=~=br~nd=choiceK=qhe=study=reve~äs=th~t=

RRKOUB=of=househoäds=m~de=their=choices=in=the=ls_j=modeK=

NNWP iimitations of study=

NK= qhe= study= considers= onäy= the= br~nd= choice= decision= ~nd=

ignores=the=other=~spects=of=buying=beh~viorK=qhe=modeä=~ääows=

for=onäy= m~in= effects=of=price=~nd=other= predictor= termsK=qhere=

~re= other= v~ri~bäes= Ewhich= ~re= ignored= in= this= studyFI= such= ~s=

purch~se= incidenceI= qu~ntity= decisions= etc= in= the= situ~tion= th~t=

m~y= ~ffect= br~nd= choiceK= ft= is= uncäe~r= how= ordered= v~äue=

OQR

processing= ~ffects= the= purch~se= incidence= decision= or= the=

qu~ntity=decisionK=

OK=jore=rese~rch=is=necess~ry=to=specify=the=f~ctors=th~t=c~use=

consumers= to= b~se= their= choice= on= ~ttribute= versus= ordered=

v~äue=inform~tionK=j~rketing=mix=f~ctors=~nd=consumer=specific=

f~ctors= wouäd= be= expected= to= infäuence= consumers’= use= of=

~ttribute= inform~tionK= cor= ex~mpäeI= m~rketing= communic~tions=

th~t= fix~tes= on= specific= ~ttribute= v~äues= r~ther= th~n= ~ttribute=

import~nce=might= äe~d=consumers= to= focus=on= products’=~ctu~ä=

r~ther= th~n= ordered= v~äuesK= pignific~nt= price= v~ri~tions= might=

äe~d=consumers=to=focus=on=product’s=~ttribute=v~äuesK==

NMWP cuture pcope cor oesearch

NK= qhis=study=focuses=on=the=äogic~ä=execution=of=the=four=moduäes=

of=the=br~nd=choice=modeä=~nd=c~äcuä~tes=the=bet~=coefficients=of=

~ää= the= moduäesK= qhese= bet~= coefficients= c~n= be= used= to=

c~äcuä~te=the=prob~biäity=of=the=next=purch~se=of=the=househoädK=ft=

m~y=be=possibäe= to= forec~st=m~rket= sh~re=of=~=p~rticuä~r=br~nd=

Eof=the=three=br~nds=considered=in=the=exerciseF=by=differing=the=

price=äeveäsK=

OK= ft= is= possibäe= to= c~äcuä~te= the= aevi~nceL^k~ikeL_~yesi~n=

fnform~tion=Criterion=to=find=which=moduäe=is=h~ving=the=best=fitK=

tin_rdp= ~ääows= the= c~äcuä~tion= of= aevi~nce= fnform~tion=

Criterion=to=find=which=moduäe=h~s=the=best=fitK=

OQS

PK= curther= rese~rch= is= required= to= underst~nd= the=effects=of= other=

v~ri~bäes=such=~s=purch~se= incidenceI=qu~ntity=decision=etc=on=

the=br~nd=choice=modeä=

=

247

=

=

=

=

^nnexure==

248

^N=

oeferences=

NK= mhiäip= hotäerI= d~rry= iiäienI= phridh~r= joorthy= j~rketing= jodeäsI= I=

OMMRI=mrentice=e~ääI=pp=NVJNOR=

OK=keweä=^I=pimon=eK^=eum~n=mrobäem=poävingI=I=mrentice=e~ää=

PK= g~mes= _ettm~nI= bric= gohnson= ^= Constructive= mrocessing=

merspectiveI=^nnu~ä=oeview=msychoäogy=by=m~yne=gohnI=QPI=UTJNPN=

QK=pimonI=eK=^K==fnv~ri~nts=of=hum~n=beh~viorK=ENVVMFK=^nnu~ä=oeview=

of=msychoäogyI=QNI=N–NVK=

RK= _ettm~nI= g~mes= oKI= j~ry= cr~nces= iuceI= ~nd= gohn= m~yne= ENVVUFI=

“Constructive= Consumer= Choice= mrocessesI≤= gourn~ä= of= Consumer=

oese~rchI=OR=EaecemberFI=NUT–ONTK=

SK= a~nieä= h~hnem~n= C= ^mos= qversky= pubjective= mrob~biäityW= ^=

gudgment=oepresent~tiveness=–=Cognitive=msychoäogyI=NVTO==PI=QPM=–=

QRQK=ENIQIRISIUIVINMINPIOPIPOIPQFEbF=

TK= a~nieä= h~hnem~nI= ^mos= qversky= gudgment= rnder= rncert~intyWI=

C~mbridge=rniversity=mress=I=OPrd=printing=OMMT=

UK=_r~ndst~tterI=bKI=digerenzerI=dKI C=eertwigI=oK= EOMMSFK=qhe=priority=

heuristicW=j~king=choices=without=tr~deoffsK=msychoäogic~ä=oeviewI=NNPI=

QMV–QPOK=

249

VK= a~nieä= dK= doädstein= ~nd= derd= digerenzer= jodeäs= of= bcoäogic~ä=

o~tion~äityW=qhe=oecognition=eeuristicI=I=msychoäogic~ä=oeview=OMMO=by=

the= ^meric~n= msychoäogic~ä= ^ssoci~tionI= fncK= OMMOI= soäK= NMVI= koK= NI=

TR–VM=MMPPJOVRuLMOLalfW=NMKNMPTLLMMPPJOVRuKNMVKNKTR=

NMK=e~mmondI=gK=pKI=heeneyI=oK=iKI=C=o~iff~I=eK=qhe=eidden=qr~ps=in=

aecision=j~kingK==EOMMSFK=e~rv~rd=_usiness=oeviewI=UQENFI=NNUJNOSK==

NNK= Ch~ikenI= pK= ENVUMFK= eeuristic= versus= system~tic= inform~tion=

processing=~nd=the=use=of=source=versus=mess~ge=cues=in=persu~sionK=

gourn~ä=of=merson~äity=~nd=poci~ä=msychoäogyI=PVI=TRO–TSSK=

NOK=digerenzerI=dKI=qoddI=mK=jKI=C= the=^_C=oese~rch=droup=ENVVVFK=

pimpäe= heuristics= th~t= m~ke= us= sm~rtK= lxfordI= bngä~ndW= lxford=

rniversity=mressK=

NPK=cishburnI=mK=CK=ENVTQFK=iexicogr~phic=ordersI=utiäities=~nd=decision=

ruäesW=^=surveyK=j~n~gement=pcienceI=OMI=NQQO–NQTNK=

NQK=_r~ndst~¨tterI=bKI=digerenzerI=dKI=C=eertwigI=oK=EOMMSFK=qhe=priority=

heuristicW= j~king= choices= without= tr~deJoffsK= msychoäogic~ä= oeviewI=

NNPI=

NRK= eog~rthI= oK= jKI= C= h~reä~i~I= kK= EOMMRbFK= pimpäe= modeäs= for=

muäti~ttribute=choice=with=m~ny=~ätern~tivesW=then=it=does=~nd=does=not=

p~y=to=f~ce=tr~deJoffs=with=bin~ry=~ttributesK=j~n~gement=pcienceI=RNI=

NUSM–NUTOK=

NSK=eog~rthI=oK=jKI=C=h~reä~i~I=kK=EOMMTFK=eeuristic=~nd=äine~r=modeäs=

of=judgmentW=j~tching=ruäes=~nd=environmentsK=msychoäogic~ä=oeviewI=

NNQI=TPP–TRUK=

250

NTK= h~hnem~nI= aKI= C= crederickI= pK= EOMMOFK= oepresent~tiveness=

revisitedW=^ttribute=substitution= in= intuitive= judgmentK= fn= qK= diäovichI=aK=

driffinI=C=aK=h~hnem~n=EbdsKFI=eeuristics=~nd=bi~sesW=qhe=psychoäogy=

of= intuitive= judgment= EppK= QV–UNFK= kew= vorkW= C~mbridge= rniversity=

mressK=

=

NUK= h~hnem~nI= aKI= C= qverskyI= ^K= ENVVSFK= ln= the= re~äity= of= cognitive=

iääusionsK=msychoäogic~ä=oeviewI=NMPI=RUO–RVNK=

NVK=h~hnem~nI=aKI=credericksonI=_K=iKI=pchreiberI=CK=^KI=C=oedeämeierI=

aK=^K=ENVVPFK=then=more=p~in=is=preferred=to=äessW=^dding=~=better=endK=

msychoäogic~ä=pcienceI=QI=QMN–QMRK=

OMK= euberI= lK= ENVTVFK= kontr~nsitive= muätidimension~ä= preferencesW=

qheoretic~ä=~n~äysis=of=~=modeäK=qheory=~nd=aecisionI=NMI=NQT–NSRK=

ONK= o~tneshw~rI= pKI= C= Ch~ikenI= pK= ENVVNFK= Comprehension’s= roäe= in=

persu~sionW=qhe=c~se=of=its=moder~ting=effect=on=the=persu~sive=imp~ct=

of=source=cuesK=qhe=gourn~ä=of=Consumer=oese~rchI=NUI=RO–SOK=

OOK=_en=^kiv~I=jKI=jK=_r~däeyI=qK=jorik~w~I=gK=_enj~minI=qK=kov~kI=eK=

lppew~äI= ~nd= sK= o~o= ENVVQFK= ‘‘Combining= oeve~äed= ~nd= pt~ted=

mreferences=a~t~I’’=j~rketing=iettersI=REQFI=PPR–PRMK=

OPK= jcc~ddenI= aK= EOMMNFK= ‘‘bconomic= ChoicesI’’= qhe= ^meric~n=

bconomic=oeviewI=VNEPFI=PRN–PTU=

OQK=_ierä~ireI=jK= EOMMNFK= ‘‘^=dener~ä= cormuä~tion=of= the=CrossJkested=

iogit= jodeäI’’= mroceedings= of= the= Nst= pwiss= qr~nsport~tion= oese~rch=

ConferenceI=^scon~I=pwitzerä~ndK=

251

ORK= bym~nnI= ^KI= ^K= _oerschJpup~nI= ~nd= oK= buw~äsK= EOMMNFK= ‘‘oisk=

^ttitudeI=fmp~tienceI=~nd=mortfoäio=ChoiceI’’=torking=m~perI=rniversity=

of=j~nnheimI=derm~nyK=

OSK= _enJ^kiv~I= jKI= aK= _oäducI= ~nd= gK= t~äker= EOMMNFK= ‘‘ppecific~tionI=

bstim~tionI= C= fdentific~tion= of= the= iogit= herneä= Eor= Continuous= jixed=

iogitF=jodeäI’’=torking=m~perI=jfqK=

OTK= _h~tI= CKoKI= ~nd= pK= C~steä~r= EOMMOFK= ‘‘^= rnified= jixed= iogit=

cr~mework= for= jodeäing= oeve~äed= ~nd= pt~ted= mreferencesW=

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cr~ncisco=_~y=^re~I’’=

qr~nsport~tion=oese~rchI=voä=PS_I=koK=TI=ppK=RVPµSNSI=^ugust=OMMOK=

OUK= qr~inI= hK= EOMMNFK= ‘‘^= Comp~rison= of= eier~rchic~ä= _~yes= ~nd=

j~ximum= pimuä~ted= iikeäihood= for= jixed= iogitI’’= torking= m~perI=

aep~rtment=of=bconomicsI=rniversity=of=C~äiforni~I=_erkeäeyK=

OVK= Ch~ikenI= pheääy= ENVUMFI= “eeuristic= sersus= pystem~tic= fnform~tion=

mrocessing=~nd=use=of=pource=sersus=jess~ge=Cues=in=mersu~sionI≤=

gourn~ä=of=merson~äity=~nd=poci~ä=msychoäogyI=soäK=PVI=ppK=TROJTSSK=

PMK=g~cobyI=g~cob=ENVTNFI=“^=jodeä=of=juätiJ_r~nd=ioy~ätyI≤=gourn~ä=of=

^dvertising=oese~rchI=soäK=NNI=ppK=ORJPMK=

PNK= _ruksI= jK= ENVURFI= “qhe= bffects= of= mroduct= Cä~ss= hnowäedge= on=

fnform~tion=pe~rch=_eh~viorI≤=gourn~ä=of=Consumer=oese~rchI=soäK=NOI=

ppK=NJNSK=

POK= _ettm~nI= g~mes= oK= ~nd= CK= th~n= m~rk= ENVUMFI= “bffects= of= mrior=

knowäedge= ~nd= bxperience= ~nd= mh~se= of= the= Choice= mrocess= on=

252

Consumer= aecision= mrocessW= ^= mrotocoä= ^n~äysisI≤= gourn~ä= of=

Consumer=oese~rchI=soäK=TI=ppK=OPQJOQUK=

PPK= kewm~n= gK= tK= ~nd= oK= pt~eäin= ENVTNF= “murch~se= fnform~tion=

peeking= for= kew= C~rs= ~nd= j~jor= eousehoäd= ^ppäi~ncesI≤= gourn~ä= of=

j~rketing=oese~rchI=soäK=UI=ppK=NVOJNVUK=

PQK=^äb~I=goseph=tK=~nd=gK=tesäey=eutchinson=ENVUTFI=“aimensions=of=

Consumer= bxpertiseI≤= gourn~ä= of= Consumer= oese~rchI= soäK= NPI= ppK=

QNNJQRQK=

PRK= _e~ttyI= ph~rone= bK= ~nd= pcott= jK= pmith= ENVUTFI= “bxtern~ä= pe~rch=

bffortW=^n=fnvestig~tion=^cross=pever~ä=mroduct=C~tegoriesI≤=gourn~ä=of=

Consumer=oese~rchI=soäK=NQI=ppK=UPJVRK=

PSK= joorthyI= pridh~rI= _ri~n= qK= o~tchford= ~nd= aeb~br~t~= q~äukd~r=

ENVVTFI=“Consumer=fnform~tion=pe~rch=oevisitedW=qheory=~nd=empiric~ä=

^n~äysisI≤=gourn~ä=of=Consumer=oese~rchI=soäK=OPI=ppK=OSPJOTTK=

PTK=c~zioI=ousseä=eK=~nd=j~rk=mK=w~nn~=ENVTUFI= “^ttitudin~ä=nu~äities=

oeä~ting= to= the=ptrength=of=^ttitudeJ_eh~vior=oeä~tionshipI≤= gourn~ä= of=

bxperiment~ä=poci~ä=msychoäogyI=soäK=NQI=ppK=PVUJQMUK=

PUK=dershoffI=^ndrew=aKI=pus~n=jK=_roni~czek=~nd= m~trici~=jK=test=

EOMMNFI= “oecommend~tion= or= bv~äu~tion?= q~sk= pensitivity= in=

fnform~tion=pource=peäectionI≤=gourn~ä=of=Consumer=oese~rchI=soäK=OUI=

ppK=QNUJQPUK=

PVK=CoupeyI=bäoise=ENVVQFI=“oestructuringW=Constructive=mrocessing=of=

fnform~tion= aispä~ys= in= Consumer= ChoiceI≤= gourn~ä= of= Consumer=

oese~rchI=soäK=ONI=ppK=UPJVVK=

253

QMK= iussierI= aenis= ^K= ~nd= oich~rd= tK= läsh~vsky= ENVTVFI= “q~sk=

Compäexity= ~nd= Contingent= mrocessing= in= _r~nd= ChoiceI≤= gourn~ä= of=

Consumer=oese~rchI=soäK=SI=ppK=NRQJNSRK=

QNK= m~rkI= gongJton= ~nd= oobert= pK=tyerI= grK= ENVVQFI= “qhe= Cognitive=

lrg~niz~tion=of=mroducts=fnform~tionW=bffects=of=^ttribute=C~tegory=pet=

pize=on= fnform~tion=oec~ääI≤=gourn~ä=of=Consumer=msychoäogyI=soäK=OI=

ppK=POVJPRTK=

QOK= = ^v~iä~biäityW= ^= heuristics= for= judging= frequency= C= prob~biäity=

Cognitive=msychoäogy=by=a~nieä=h~hnem~n=C=^mos=qversky=NVTPI=QI=

OMTJOPO=

QPK=ln=mrediction=~nd=gudgment=–=lof=oese~rch=jonogr~phI=NVTOI=by=

a~nieä=h~hnem~n=~nd=^mos=qversky=NOEQFKNME~F=

QQK= = ln= msychoäogy= of= mrediction= –= msychoäogic~ä= oeview= by= a~nieä=

h~hnem~n= C= ^mos= qversky= I= NVTPI= UMI= OPTJORN=

ENIRISITIUIVINMINPINRINUIOPIOTIPMIPQF=

QRK= = mrospective= qheory= J= ^n= ^n~äysis= of= aecisions= rnder= oisk=

bconometric~=–=by=a~nieä=h~hnem~n=C=^mos=qversky=INVTVI=QTI=OSPJ

OVNK=ENVI=PPFEbF=

QSK= = pimiä~rity= ~nd= mrob~biäity= lrg~niz~tion~ä= _eh~vior= ~nd= eum~n=

merform~nce=by=j~y~=_~r=–eiäeäI=NVTVI=OQI=OQRJORTK=ERI=PQF=

QTK= bgocentric= bi~ses= in= ~v~iä~biäity= ~nd= ~ttribution= qhe= gourn~ä= of=

merson~äity=~nd=poci~ä=msychoäogy=–=by=jich~eä=ooss=C=ciore=picoäyI=

NVTVI=PTI=POOJPPS=

254

QUK= qhe= simuä~tion= heuristics= –= qhis= p~per= is= dr~wn= from= h~tzJ

kewcomb= iecture= in= poci~ä= msychoäogy= “ln= the= msychoäogy= of=

mossibäe=toräds≤=^nn=^rborI=jichig~n=^priä=NVTV=by=a~nieä=h~hnem~n=

C=^mos=qversky=

QVK= qest= resuäts= ~re= wh~t= you= think= you= ~reI= msychoäogy= qod~y= by=

ioren=gK=Ch~pm~n=C=ge~n=Ch~pm~n=kov=NVTN=pp=NUJOOI=NMSJNNM=

RMK=ie~rning=from=experience=~nd=suboptim~ä=ruäes=in=decision=m~king=

qKpK=t~ästen=Cognitive=mrocesses=in=Choice=~nd=aecision=_eh~vior==by=

eiääeä=gK=binhorn=TQMJMO=

RNK= Constructive= Consumer= Choice= mrocessesI= gourn~ä= of= Consumer=

oese~rchI=by=_ettm~n=g~mes=oI=j~ry=cr~ncis=iuce=gohn=m~yneI=aec=

NVVUI=NUTJONT=

ROK= = Coherent= ^rbitr~rinessW= pt~bäe= aem~nd= Curves= tithout= pt~bäe=

mreferencesI= qhe= nu~rteräy= gourn~ä= of= bconomics= by= ^rieäy= a~nI=

deorge=iowensteinI=ar~zen=mreäec=NNUENFI=TPJOMR=

RPK=qhe=cr~ming=of=aecisions=~nd=the=msychoäogy=of=ChoicesI=pcience=

ONN=EQQUNF=QRPJQRU=

RQK= Context= aependent= mreferencesI=j~n~gement= pcience= by= ft~m~r=

pimonson=PVENMFI=NNTVJNNUV=

RRK=iikeäihood=o~tiosI=mosterior=ldds=^nd=fnform~tion=Criteri~I=gourn~ä=

of=bconometrics=by=^tkinson=^K=NSI=NRJOM=

255

RSK= mosterior= mrob~biäities= for= Choosing= ~= oegression= jodeäI=

_iometrik~I=by=^tkinson=^K=SUI=PRTJPSP=

RTK= _~yesi~n= jodeä= Choice= vi~= jCjC= methods= gourn~ä= of= ooy~ä=

pt~tisitc~ä=pociety=by=C~räin=_I=Chib=pK=_NRTI=QTPJQUQ=

RUK=bxpä~ining=the=dibb’s=p~mpäerI=^meric~n=pt~tistici~nI=by=C~seää~=dI=

deorge=bI=NVVOI=QSI=NSTJNTQ=

RVK= fntroduction= to= _~yesi~n= fnferenceI= _~yesi~n= jodeäing= rsing=

tin_rdp=by=fo~nnis=ktzoufr~sK=rniversity=of=^thens=OMMVI==pp=NJPM=

SMK=qhe=mopuä~r=jCjC=^ägorithm=_~yesi~n=jodeäing=rsing=tin_rdp=

by=fo~nnis=ktzoufr~sK=rniversity=of=^thensI=OMMVI=pp=PNJUO=

SNK= tin_rdp= poftw~re= fntroductionI= petup= ^n= _~sic= ^n~äysis=

_~yesi~n=jodeäing=rsing=tin_rdp==by=fo~nnis=ktzoufr~sK=rniversity=

of=^thens=OMMVI=pp=UPJNOP=

SOK= tin_rdp= poftw~reI= fääustr~tionI= oesuäts= ~nd= curther= ^n~äysis=

_~yesi~n=jodeäing=rsing=tin_rdp=by=fo~nnis=ktzoufr~sK=rniversity=of=

^thens=OMMVI=pp=NORJNRM=

SPK= “fndifference= Curves= th~t= qr~veäs= with= the= Choice= pet≤= pimonson=

~nd=^mos=qversky=EOMMMFI=j~rketing=ietter=NN=^ugust=pp=NVV=–=ONM=

SQK=tin_rdp=user=m~nu~ä=version=NKQI=technic~ä=report=^K=qhom~sI=kK=

_est=~nd=aK=iunn= EOMMPF=jedic~ä=oese~rch=Counciä=_iost~tistics=rnitI=

C~mbridge=rniversityK=

256

SRK=qhe=ooäe=of=corgetting=in=jemory=_~sed=Choice=aecisionsI=jeht~=

kKI=hK=priniv~s~n= EOMMQFI=nu~ntit~tive=j~rketing=~nd=bconomics=OEOFI= =

NMT=JNQMK==

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fnterscienceK=fp_k=MJQTNJPSMVPJTK=

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s~mpäes= from=~=norm~ä=muätiv~ri~te=popuä~tion?K=_iometrik~=OMA ENJOFW=

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=

256

AO mrofK pachin aeshmukh

madmashree arK aKvK matil rniversity

purvey

k~me of the interviewer W

NKK a~te of interviewW

OK qime of interview st~rted ~tW ended ~tW

PK oespondent’s numberW

QK oespondent’s n~meW

RK AddressW

min

pt~teW

Cont~ct noK jobileW

SKK thich detergent powders do you use for w~shing clothes? Emore th~n one preference is

v~lidF

purf hey qide Ariel oin

257

TK thich detergent you bought in l~st three months? Emle~se tick the boxF

Emurch~se should be of Nkg p~ckK jention price of purch~se in p~renthesisF

Brand 1st Month 2nd Month Prd Month Elatest)

aate of visit

purf

hey

Tide

Ariel

oin

UK th~t ~re your re~sons for preferring the br~nd?Ecircle the m~rks given by the respondentI

T m~rks – very import~ntI N m~rk unimport~ntF

fmportant rnimportant

Attribute T S R 4 3 O 1

mrice

ppecial offers

Brand name

Cleaning ability

258

poft on fabric

oemoves stains fast

bffective with

washing machine

VK there you prefer buying your grocery? Edive r~nks NI OI P ~ccording to preferenceF

AK drocery shop

BK aep~rtment~l stores

CK j~ll

NMK thich newsp~pers you re~d?

ENF

EOF

EPF

NNK thich m~g~zines your re~d?

ENF

EOF

EPF

NOK thich qKsK ch~nnels you like?

ENF

EOF

EPF

EQF

259

NPK thich qKsK progr~ms you w~tch regul~rly?

ENF

EOF

EPF

EQF

ERF

NQK e~ve you seen ~ny ~dvertisement of the detergent br~nd you prefer?

ves ko

NRK thich medium? Eoesponse to this question should be noted if ~nswer to ENQF is yesF

kewsp~per j~g~zine qKsK

NSK eow m~ny times you s~w the ~dvertisement l~st week?

N time O times P times more th~n P times

NTK t~s there ~ny offer on the br~nd of detergent you purch~sed l~st time?

ves koK

ff the ~nswer to nKNT is yesI ~nswer nKNU

NUK th~t w~s the offer?

aiscount gift extr~ qu~ntity ~t s~me price

Thank you for your response

260

cor office use only

Nst jonth Ond jonth Prd jonth

Advertisements

mromotion

Euse dummy coding J

“N” for ~dvertisement mess~ge received by householdI “M” for not receivedK

“N” for speci~l promotion of the br~nd purch~sed in ~ p~rticul~r monthI “M” for no promotionF

OSN

A3 cndings of tin_rdp

AWPWN cindings of AsBj jodule by tinBrdp poftware

Calculation of parameters

node mean sd MC errorO.RB median VT.RB start sample

muKbet~xNINz JMKTMUR QMKVP MKPSRV JUNKNT JNKNPV TUKV NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xNIOz MKMQORU QNKNU MKPTOO JUOKSP MKMVTVR UMKPO NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xNIPz JMKNSSR QNKNU MKPPTO JUMKTT JMKOOMV UNKM NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xNIQz MKMOPTR QNKM MKQPNQ JUNKT MKNROU UMKPU NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xNIRz MKOUQR QMKVP MKQQMT JUMKOQ MKQSOR UOKPS NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOINz MKSMVU QMKQT MKQOUV JTTKUQ MKQURO TVKSN NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOIOz NKOOS QNKNO MKPRRV JTVKMQ MKVSMV UOKUT NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOIPz JMKMRVRV QMKT MKQPNN JTUKUS MKMRUVO TVKOO NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOIQz JMKORRR QMKVV MKQNPU JUMKUT JMKOMMS UNKPN NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOIRz JNKON QMKTS MKQNQP JUNKNO JNKVSP TVKSR NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xPINz MKPUPU QMKS MKPVO JTVKVQ MKSQTR TUKUU NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xPIOz MKRTNQ QMKOT MKQPUP JUMKM MKOPSN TUKUR NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xPIPz JMKNNVQ QMKVP MKQQUN JTVKVS MKMMSVU UMKON NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xPIQz MKMSMRT QNKOR MKQMOQ JUMKVN JMKRUOS UNKUP NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xPIRz MKONRR QNKMT MKQOTT JUMKSR MKQQRS UMKPV NMMMN NMMMM

OSO

Convergence of Chain for AsjB jodule

muKbet~xNINz

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

muKbet~xOIOz

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

muKbet~xOIPz

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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OSP

muKbet~xPIPz

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

AWPWO cindings of lsBj jodule by tinBrdp poftware

OSQ

node mean sd MC error O.RB median VT.RB start sample

bKbr~ndO JMKMPSUS NMKMN MKNMNQ JNVKSQ VKQSbJQ NVKQT NMMMN NMMMM

bKbr~ndP MKMTUSP NMKMP MKMVQMV JNVKRP MKMSOTO NVKUP NMMMN NMMMM

bKmrice JMKMVMTV VKVQS MKNMQQ JNVKQ JMKMVNOV NVKP NMMMN NMMMM

bKce~t JMKNNMU VKVOQ MKNMSU JNVKTR JMKNSOO NVKNN NMMMN NMMMM

bKaisp JMKMRNMQ NMKMT MKMVQPO JNVKT JMKMVOPO NVKTS NMMMN NMMMM

Convergence of lsjB jodule

bKbr~ndO

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

==JQMKM==JOMKM====MKM===OMKM===QMKM===SMKM

bKbr~ndP

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

==JQMKM==JOMKM====MKM===OMKM===QMKM

bKmrice

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

==JQMKM==JOMKM====MKM===OMKM===QMKM

bKce~t

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

==JQMKM==JOMKM====MKM===OMKM===QMKM

bKaisp

iter~tionNVVRMNVVMMNVURM

==JQMKM==JOMKM====MKM===OMKM===QMKM

OSR

AWPWP cindings of aual jode - Time fnvariant jodel by tinBrdp poftware node mean sd MC error O.RB median VT.RB start sample

muKbet~xNINz JMKNTMT QMKUS MKPTTR JUMKRQ MKMUVTO TVKVU NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xNIOz MKMNOPS QMKVU MKQONR JUMKUV MKOQVR UMKTS NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xNIPz MKPTNU QMKSQ MKQONN JTVKV MKPUVS TUKVN NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xNIQz JMKMVMPO QMKUV MKPUNT JUNKNP MKMRVTP TUKUR NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xNIRz MKMPQNR QNKON MKQMNS JUMKPP MKOMOQ UNKQ NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xOINz MKMQPVQ QMKVS MKQOTR JUMKMQ MKOQMO UNKQ NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xOIOz JMKRMUO QMKTT MKQOVU JUNKNV JMKNPOP TVKNT NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xOIPz NKOO QMKT MKQMTS JTUKVQ MKTMTO UOKUU NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xOIQz JMKPMSO QMKUU MKQPQQ JUMKMR JMKQMRT UMKRQ NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

muKbet~xOIRz JMKMTQVN QMKVT MKQOTS JUNKMU JMKPTTV UMKPR NMMMN NMMMM NMMMM

pKchoiceKmodexNz MKQQTO MKOUT MKMMOTUP MKMOPUN MKQVR MKVTNV NMMMN NMMMM

pKchoiceKmodexOz MKRROU MKOUT MKMMOTUP MKMOUNS MKRMRN MKVTSP NMMMN NMMMM

Convergence of Chain aual jode – Time fnvariant

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=JOMMKM=JNMMKM

====MKM==NMMKM==OMMKM

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AWPWQ cindings for aual jode Time sariant jodule by tinBrdp poftware node mean sd MC errorO.RB median VT.RB start sample

muKbet~xNINz MKONVS PVKVT MKPVMS JTUKNO MKMTPQO TVKM NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xNIOz MKPTMN QMKRN MKQMPV JTVKPS MKSNMN TUKUT NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xNIPz JMKNPOV QMKPR MKPVQ JTVKOP MKPPVU TVKO NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xNIQz JMKNNQQ QMKQU MKQNMO JTUKVR MKNNTN TVKTS NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xNIRz JMKRNQQ QMKVT MKQRMT JUMKT JMKRQU UNKMQ NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOINz MKNMUO QMKPS MKPUNT JTUKNN MKOPTS UMKNT NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOIOz MKQURV QMKRO MKQNMN JTVKVO MKQMRO TVKUV NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOIPz JMKPVTP QMKTV MKPSPQ JTVKSV JNKMTO UMKTP NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOIQz MKOSUP QMKRT MKPTRQ JTVKOP MKNQQS UMKPP NMMMN NMMMM

muKbet~xOIRz JMKNQQN QMKTT MKQPNS JUMKT JMKPUQU TVKPU NMMMN NMMMM

Convergence of Chain aual jode Time sariant jodule

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AWPWR pummary of the Beta Coefficients of the four jodules

OSV

Beta Coefficients for the four models = = = = = = = = = = = =

== Attribute Coefficients lrdered Coefficients

jodel Brand O Brand P mrice ceature mromotion Brand O Brand P mrice ceature mromotion

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== == == == == == == == == == ==

je~n=EμF= ==MKMPMMPP= MKNVPVOP= JMKMPSQN= MKMMQQV= MKNTMOMST=

== == == ==

jC=error===

MKPVSS= MKPUUU= MKQMRR= MKQNRU= MKQOTS=== == == == ==

lsBj lnly

== == == == == == == == == == ==

je~n=EμF= == == == == == == JMKMPT= MKMTV= JMKMVM= JMKNNMU= JMKM

jC=error= == == == == == == MKNMNQ= JMKMVQM= MKNMQQ= MKNMSU= MKMVQP

eybrid Time

fnvariant == == == == == == == == == ==

je~n=EμF===

JMKMNTMT= MKMNOPS= MKPTNU= JMKMVMPO= MKMPQNR= MKMQPVQ= JMKRMUO= NKOO= JMKPMSO= JMKMTQVN

jC=error= = = MKPTTR= MKQONR= MKQONN= MKPUNT= MKQMNS= MKQOTR= MKQOVU= MKQMTS= MKQPQQ= MKQOTS

eybrid Time

variant == = = = = = = = = =

je~n=EμF=== MKONVS= MKPTMN= JMKNPOV= JMKNNQQ= JMKRNQQ= MKNMUO= MKQURV= JMKPVTP= MKOSUP= JMKNQQN

jC=error=== MKPVMS= MKQMPV= MKVQ= MKQNMO= MKQRMT= MKPUNT= MKQNMN= MKPSPQ= MKPTRQ= MKQPNS

OSV

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NRM======N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N=NQR======N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = = = =M= = = = = = = = = = = = =M= =NQR======M= = = =M= = = = NQU= = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM======N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= ==M==== QU=======N==================M=NQR======N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = = = = ==M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = ==N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = N= ==M==== QU=======M========= ===M=NRM======N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = =M= = ===N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = ===M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = ===N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N== = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = = = ===M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = =M= = = ===M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= = =M= = = = QU= = = = =M= = = ===M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM== = = = = = = = = = =N= = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQM= = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = = =N= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =N=NRM======N==========M========NQU==============N===========M==========QU======N====================N=NRM======N==========M========NQU==============M===========M==========QU======M====================N=NRM======N==========M========NQU==============M============N=========QU======N====================N=NRM======N==========N========NQU==============M============N=========QU======N====================N===NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = N= = = =M= = = = QU= = = = M= = = = ===M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = = =N= = = = = = = = =QU= = = = N= = = ===M=NRM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N== = = =N= = = = QU= = = = =M= = ===M=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = = =M= = = = QU= = = = N= = = = ===N=NQR======N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = N= = = =N= = = = QU= = = = = =M= = ===M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = = NQU= = N= = = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = = =M= = = = QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = = = M= = = = QU= = = = =M= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== = = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = = NQM= = N= = = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = = ===M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQM== = = = = = = = = = =N= = = =N= = = = QU= = = = = = =N= = ===M=NQM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= = = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= = = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = ===M=NRM======M===========M=======NQU==============N============M========QU=======N====================M=NRM======N===========M=======NQU==============N============M========QU=======N====================N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= = = =M= = = QU= = = =M= = = = ===N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = = = = = M= = = = QU= = = = N= = = = = = = ===N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = = =M= = = QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = = =M= = = QU= = = =M= = ===M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== = = =N= = = QU= = = N= = ===M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = = =M= = = QU= = = N= = ===M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = =M= = = QU= = = M= = ===N=

OTP

NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= =M= ==QU=======M================ M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= =M= = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= =N= = =QU= = = M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =M== =M= = = =QU= = = M= = = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = = = M= = = =QU= = = N= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =N= =M= = = =QU= = = N= = = = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = M= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= =M= = = =QU= = = =M= = = =M==NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = N= = =N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= =M= = = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= =M= = = =QU= = = N= = = = =N=NQR= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = =M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =M=NRM= = N= ===M========NQU============= N= M= = = =QU= = = = M= = = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = =N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = =N=NQR======N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= ===QU===== M====== = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M=================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = = M= ===QU===== M====== = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M=================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= ===QU==== N==================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQM= = N= N= ===QU===== N====== = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=

OTQ

NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M=================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = = = = =M= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N== M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = = M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M=========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQM= = =N= N= == =QU=== = = N=== = = = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=

OTR

NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = = = NQM= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQO= = N= = = = = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = = M= = = = = = = = = = N=NQO= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= = = = = = =N= = = = = = QQ= = = = M= = = = = = N=NQO= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = N=NQO= = N= = = =M= = = = = NPU= = = =M= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = M=NPM= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =N= = M=NPM= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= = = = N= = = =QQ= = = =N= = N=NPM= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = =N= = M= = = =QQ= = = = M= = = = M=NQO= = M= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M====== = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =M= M= = = =QQ= = = = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = = = = =M=NQR= N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======N= = = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU======M================ M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU======M================ M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = ==N=======M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =N= M= ===QU==== N==============M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M============= M=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = N= = = =QU= = = = = =M= = M=

OTS

NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= ===QU==== N==============N=NQM======N= = = =N= = = = = NQM= = N= N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQM== = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM=====M===========M========NQU======== N=========M===========QU=======N=================M=NRM=====N===========M========NQU==============N=========M===========QU=======N=================N=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= ==QU==== M====== = = = = = = = =N==NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = N=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = M= = =QU= = = =M= = M=NQR= N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = M= = =QU= = = = M= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M== N= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = N=NQR= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = M= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = =QU= = = = = =M= = = = = = = = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQM= = N= N= = =QU= = = N= = N=NQR= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = N=NQR= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = M= = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQM= = N= N= = =QU= = = N= = N=NQR= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N== N= = =QU= = = = = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N=NQM= = N= = =N= = = = = NQM= = N= N= = =QU= = = N= = = M=NQM= = N= = =N= = = NQM= = = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQM= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQM= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = N= = N=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = M= = N=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ==QU=======M================ M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = M= = N=NRM= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = M= = =QU= = = M= = N=bka=====

OTT

====The tinBrdp software program along with data =modeä=={==äogitEpxizF=YJ=~äph~=H=bKbr~ndOGbr~ndOxiz=H=bKbr~ndPGbr~ndPxiz=H=bKmriceGmricexizH=bKce~tGce~txiz=HbKaispGaispxiz==== #äikeäihood=function=for=e~ch=d~t~=point==#äowxiz=~=dbernEpxizF==~äph~=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF== #prior=for=intercept=bKbr~ndO=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF==#prior=for=säopes=bKbr~ndP=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=bKmrice=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=bKce~t=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF=bKaisp=~=dnormEMKMINKMbJOF==predKprice=YJ=expE~äph~=H=bKbr~ndO=H=bKbr~ndP=H=bKmrice=H=bKce~t=H=bKaispF=L=EN=H=expE~äph~=H=bKbr~ndO=H=bKbr~ndP=H=bKmrice=H=bKce~t=H=bKaispFF=}==a~t~=äistEi=Z=VTRF=br~ndOx=z=br~ndPx=z=mricex=z=ce~tx=z=aispx=z=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M==========NRM= N= M=M= M==========NRM= N= M=M= M==========NRM= M= M=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M==========NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M==========NRM= N= N=N= M==========NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M==========NRM= N= M=N= M==========NQU= M= M=N= M==========NQR= M= M=N= M==========NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M==========NQR= M= M=====M= M==========NRM= N= M=N= M==========NQU= M= M=M= N============QU= M= M=N= M==========NQU= N= M=

OTU

M= N= QU= M= N=M= M==========NRM= M= M=N= M==========NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQM= N= N= =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= =NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M=============NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= =NRM= N= M=

OTV

M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQM= N= N= =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=

OUM

M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=

OUN

M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =

OUO

N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQM= N= N= =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M=============NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M=============NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M= =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=

OUP

M= M= NRM= N= M= = =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M== = = = = = = = = = =NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M============M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=

OUQ

N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M=============M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQM= N= N= =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=

OUR

M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=

OUS

M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQM= N= N= =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M=== NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= = = = = M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=

OUT

M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= N== NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= = = = = M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=

OUU

M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQM= N= N= =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M=== NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=

OUV

M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M= =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M=== NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=

OVM

M= N= QU= M==== =M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQM= N= N= =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M=== NRM= M= M=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=

OVN

M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= = = = = M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M=== NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =

OVO

M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= N=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M=N= M= NQR= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQR= M= M====M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=

OVP

N= M= NQU= N= M= =N= M= NQM= N= N=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= M= NQM= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NQM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= M= NRM= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M= = =N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QU= M= N=M= M= NRM= M= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= N= N=N= M= NQM= N= N= =M= M= NQM= N= N=N= M= NQU= M= N=M= N= QR= N= N=N= M= NPR= N= N=M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= M= M=N= M= NQU= M= M= = =M= M= NRM= N= M=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= M= NQR= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= N=N= M= NQU= M= M= =M= N= QU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M=== NRM= N= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= N=M= N= QU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= N= QU= N= M=

OVQ

N= M= NQU= N= M=M= N= QU= M= M= = =M= N= QU= N= M=M= M= NRM= N= M=N= M= NQU= N= N=M= N= QU= M= M=M= M= NRM= M= M=bka===fnits=äistE~äph~ZMI=bKbr~ndO=Z=MI=bKbr~ndP=Z=MI=bKmrice=Z=MI=bKce~t=Z=MI=bKaisp=Z=MF=======================================

OVR

#jodeä=pt~tement=for=eybrid=qime=fnv~ri~nt=jode=modeä=={==#key=modeä=st~tements=on=individu~ä=beh~vior==for=Enthchoice=in=NW=nchoiceF= {== for=Enthbr~nd=in=N=W=nbr~ndsF= {== = for=E=nthKchoiceKmode=in=N=W=nKchoiceKmodesF= {== = = äogEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeI=nthchoiceI=nthbr~ndzF=YJ=== == bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezInthbr~ndz=H=== == inprodEbet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeIwhichKhhxnthchoicezI=== = = Enbr~nds=H=NFWEnbr~nds=H=npredsFzI=xxnthchoiceI=NWnpredsInthbr~ndInthKchoiceKmodezF== = = = pxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndz=YJ=== = = = muxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceInthbr~ndz=L=sumEmuxnthKchoiceKmodeInthchoiceIzFX== = }=================================================================================================================================================================================================================== }== #yxnthchoicez=~=dc~tEpxchoiceKmodexwhichKhhxnthchoicezzInthchoiceIzFX=}==#priors=on=individu~ä=äeveä=p~r~meters==for=Enthhh=in=NWnhhF= {== choiceKmodexnthhhz=~dc~tEpKchoiceKmodexzF== for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NW=nKchoiceKmodesF= {== bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhINz=YJ=M=#=for=identific~tion== bet~KhxnthKchoiceKmodeInthhhIOWnbet~sz=~=dmnormEmuKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIzI== qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzF== = }== }== pKchoiceKmodexNWnKchoiceKmodesz=~=ddirch=EonesKvecKäenKnmodesxzFX== for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NW=nKchoiceKmodesF= {== = onesKvecKäenKnmodesxnthKchoiceKmodez=YJN== }=#hyperpriors=on=p~r~meters=of=priors=on=individu~ä=äeveä=p~r~meters=for=E=nthKchoiceKmode=in=NW=nKchoiceKmodesF= {== muKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sz=~=dmnormEzeroKvecxzI=sm~ääKm~trixxIzFX== qKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sI=NWnKfreeKbet~sz~=dwishEsm~ääKm~trixxIzInKfreeKbet~sFX== }== for=Enthbet~=in=NWnKfreeKbet~sF= {=

OVS

= zeroKvecxnthbet~z=YJ=MX== sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~z=YJ=MKMMNX== = for=Enthbet~Kd~sh=in=Enthbet~=H=NFWnKfreeKbet~sF= {== = sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Inthbet~Kd~shz=YJ=MKMMMRX== = sm~ääKm~trixxnthbet~Kd~shInthbet~zYJMKMMMRX== = }== }== }==#=nodes=cre~ted=onäy=for=monitoring==for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={====me~nKpKchoiceKmodexnthKchoiceKmodez=YJ=me~nEpKchoiceKmodexInthKchoiceKmodezF==}==for=EnthKchoiceKmode=in=NWnKchoiceKmodesF={====sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeINWnKfreeKbet~sINWnKfreeKbet~sz=YJ=inverseEqKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeIIzFX====for=Enthbet~=in=NWnKfreeKbet~sF={======sigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z=YJ=sigm~Km~tKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~Inthbet~zX======sqrtKsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~z=YJ=sqrtEsigm~KvecKbet~xnthKchoiceKmodeInthbet~zFX====}==}==}===xxININz==xxINIOz==xxINIPz===xxIOINz==xxIOIOz==xxIOIPz==xxIPINz==xxIPIOz==xxIPIPz=NRM====N===============M==========NQU=========N=============M===========QU===========N============M=NRM====N===============N==========NQU=========N=============M===========QU===========N============M=NRM====N===============M==========NQU=========N=============N===========QU===========N============N=NRM====N===============M==========NQU=========M=============M===========QU===========M============M=NRM====M===============M==========NQU=========N=============M===========QU===========N============M=NRM====N===============M==========NQU=========N=============M===========QU===========N============N=NRM====N===============M==========NQU=========M=============M===========QU===========M============N=NRM====N===============M==========NQU=========M=============N===========QU===========N============N=NRM====N===============N==========NQU=========M=============N===========QU===========N============N=NRM====M= ======M========NQU===== N= ====M======= QU============M== ===M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= N= ====N===========QU============N====== M=NRM====N= ======N======== NQU= M= ====M======= QU== N== ===M=NQR====M= ======M======== NQU= N== ====N======= QU=== M= ===M=NQR====M= ======N======== NQU= M= ====M======= QU== N= ===M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU=========M= ====M======= QU== N= = = = = = N=NQR====N= ======M======== NQU= N= ====N======= QU==== M= ===M=NQR====M= ======M=========NQU= N= ====M======= QU== N============M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= M= ====M======= QU== N= ===M=NQR====N= ======N======== NQU= M= = = = = = = M= = = = = = =QU= = M= ===M=NQR====N= ======N======== NQU= M== ====N======= QU== N= ===M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU== N= ====M======= QU== N= ===M=

OVT

NQR====N= ======N======== NQU= M= ====M======= QU== M= ===N=NQR====N= ======N======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU============M======== M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= M=============M======= QU== N= ===M=NRM====M= ======M======== NQU= N= ====N======= QU== M= ===N=NRM====M= ======N======== NQU= M== ====M======= QU============M= ===N=NRM====M= ======M======== NQU= N= = = = = = = = M= = = = = = = QU= = N= ===M=NRM====M= ======N======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU== N= = = = = = M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= N= ====N======= QU== M= ===M=NRM====N================M======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU==== M============M=NRM====M= ======M======== NQM= N= ====N======= QU== N= = = = = = = = N=NRM====M= ======N======== NQM= N= ====N======= QU== N= ===M=NQM====N= ======N==========NQM= N= ====N======= QU============N== ===M=NQM====N= ======N======== NQM= N= ====N======= QU===== N= ===M=NQM====M= ======N======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU============N= ===M=NQM====N= ======N======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU== N= ===N=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= N= ====N======= QU== N= ===M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU== M= ===M=NRM====M===============M==========NQU=========N=============M===========QU===========N============M=NRM====N===============M==========NQU=========N=============M===========QU===========N============N=NRM====N===============M==========NQU==========M============M===========QU===========M============N=NRM====N===============M==========NQU==========M============N===========QU===========N============N=NRM====N===============N==========NQU==========M============N===========QU===========N============N===NRM====M= = = = = =M= = = = = = =NQU= = = = = = N= ====M======== QU= M= = = = = = M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====N===========QU= N= ===M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU===========M===========M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= N============N=NRM====N= =====M======= NPR= =N= = = = = = N= = = = = = = =QU= =M= ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NPR= =N= ====N======== QU= N============M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= M= ===M=NRM====M= =====M==========NQU= =M= ====M======== QU===========N============N=NRM====M= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= M==========N=NRM====N= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= N== ===N=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= =N========= M======== QU===========N== ===M=NRM====M= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= N= = = = = = = M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====N======== QU= M============M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= M== ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQM= =N= ====N======== QU= N= ===N=NRM====M= =====N======= NQM= =N= ====N======== QU== N= ===M=NQM====N= =====N==========NQM= =N= ====N======== QU= N== ===M=NQM====N= =====N======= NQM= =N= ====N======== QU= N= ===M=NQM====M= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N==============M======= NQU== =M= ====N======== QR= N= ===N=NRM====N= =====N======= NQU= =M= ====N======== QR= N= ===N=NRM====N= =====M======= NPR= =N= ====N======== QR= N= ===N=NRM====N= =====M======= NPR== =N==========N======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= =====M==========NQU==========M===========N======== QU= N= ===N=NRM====N= =====N======= NQU== =N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU== M= = = = = = N=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= M========== M========= QU=== N= ===N=

OVU

NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M= = = = = = = M= = = = = = = =QU= = M= ===M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M== ====N======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU== N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU= M= ===N=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= N= ====M======== QU===========M===========M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU== N= ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= N= ====N======== QU= M= ===N=NRM====M= =====N======= NQU==========M== ====M============QU= M= ===N=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= N= = = = = = = = M= = = = = = = =QU= N============M=NRM====M= =====N======= NQU= N= ====M======== QU= N============M=NRM====N===============M======= NQU= N= = = = = = = N= = = = = = = =QU= M= = = = = = = M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= N= ====M======== QU== M== ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQM= N= ====N======== QU= N= ===N=NQR====M= =====N======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N== ===M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N== ===N=NQR====N= =====M======= NQU= N= ====N======== QU=== M= ===M==NQR====M= =====M======== NQU= N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU===========N===========M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M== ====M======== QU= =M= = = = = = = M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M== ====N======== QU= N= = = = = = = = M=NRM====N= ====M======= NQU== N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NQR====N= = = = =N== = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= M= ===N=NQR====N= = = = =N== = = = = = NQU= N= ====M======== QU===========M======== M=NRM====N= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====M= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= N= ====N======== QU= M= ===N=NRM====M= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= N= ====M======== QU= M= ===M=NRM====M= = = = =N== = = = = = NQU= M== ====M======== QU= M= ===N=NRM====M= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= N== ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====M= = = = =N== = = = = = NQU= N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= N= ====N======== QU= M============M=NRM====N= ====M========= NQU= N= ====M======== QU== M== ===M=NRM====M= = = = =M== = = = = = NQM= N= ====N======== QU= N= ===N=NRM====M= = = = =N== = = = = = NQM= N= ====N======== QU== N============N=NRM====N=============M============NQU=========N=============M============QU==========N============N=NRM====N=============M============NQU=========M=============M============QU==========M============N=NRM====N=============M============NQU=========M=============N============QU==========N============N=NRM====N=============N============NQU=========M=============N============QU==========N============N===NRM====M= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= = = = = N= ====M======== QU= M== ===M=NRM====N= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= N= ====N============QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= = = =N= = = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NQR====M= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= N= = = = = = = N= = = = = = = =QU= = M= ===M=NQR====M= = = =N= = = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===N=NQR====N= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= N= ====N======== QU=== M= ===M=NQR====M= == =M=== = = = = = NQU= N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N============M=NQR====N= = = =N= = = = = = = NQU= M= = = = = = = = M= = = = = = = = QU= = M============M=NQR====N= = = =N= = = = = = NQU= M== ===N==== = = = = QU===== = = = =N= ===M=

OVV

NQM= = N= = = =N= = = = NQM= = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = = ===M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQM== = = = = = = = = = =N= = =N= = = = QU= = = = = = =N= = ===M=NQM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ===N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = ==M=NRM======M===========M=======NQU==============N===========M=========QU=======N===================M=NRM======N===========M=======NQU==============N===========M=========QU=======N===================N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= = =M= = = = QU= = = = =M= = = = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = = = = M= = = = = QU= = = = =N= = = = = = = ==N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = = M= = = = QU= = = = = =M= = ==M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = ==N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= ==M==== QU=======M==================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = =M= = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =M== = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =N= =M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= =M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = ==M==NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= =M= = = =QU== = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= =M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = ==N=NQR= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = ==M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU== = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==M=NRM= = N= ===M========NQU============= N= M= = = =QU= = = = M= = = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = ==N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = ==N=NQR======N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU== = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= ===QU===== M============== M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M==================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = = M= = = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU== = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = = M= ===QU===== M============== M=

PMM

NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M=================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= ===QU==== N==================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQM= = N= N= ===QU===== N====== = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M=================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = = = = =M= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N== M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = = M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M=========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQM= = =N= N= == =QU=== = = N=== = = = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=

PMN

NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = = = NQM= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQO= = N= = = = = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = = M= = = = = = = = = = N=NQO= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= = = = = = =N= = = = = = QQ= = = = M= = = = = = N=NQO= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = N=NQO= = N= = = =M= = = = = NPU= = = =M= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = M=NPM= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =N= = M=NPM= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= = = = N= = = =QQ= = = =N= = N=NPM= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = =N= = M= = = =QQ= = = = M= = = = M=NQO= = M= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M====== = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =M= M= = = =QQ= = = = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = = = = =M=NQR= N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======N= = = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU======M================ M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = M=

PMO

NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N=========M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= ===QU==== N==============M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M============= M=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N== N= = = =QU= = = = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= ===QU==== N==============N=NQM=====N= = = =N= = = = = NQM= = N= N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQM== = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM=====M===========M========NQU======== N=========M===========QU=======N=================M=NRM=====N===========M========NQU==============N=========M===========QU=======N=================N=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= ==QU===== M==============N==NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = = =N= = N=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = M= = =QU= = = = =M= = M=NQR= N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = =QU= = = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = M= = =QU= = = = = M= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M== N= = =QU= = = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = = N= = = = N=NQR= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = = M= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = =QU= = = = = = =M= = = = = = = = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQM= = N= N= = =QU= = = = N= = N=NQR= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = =M= M= = =QU= = = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = = N= = = = N=NQR= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = = M= = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQM= = N= N= = =QU= = = = N= = N=NQR= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = = N= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N== N= = =QU= = = = = = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = M= M= ==QU==== N===============N=

PMP

NQM= = N= = =N= = = = = NQM= = N= N= = =QU= = = N= = = M=NQM= = N= = =N= = = NQM= = = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQM= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQM= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = N= = N=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = M= = N=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ==QU=======M================ M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = M= = N=NRM= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = M= = =QU= = = M= = N=bka=======================================

PMQ

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PMR

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PMS

NRM====M= ======M======== NQU= N= ====N======= QU== M= ===N=NRM====M= ======N======== NQU= M== ====M======= QU============M= ===N=NRM====M= ======M======== NQU= N= = = = = = = = M= = = = = = = QU= = N= ===M=NRM====M= ======N======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU== N= = = = = = M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= N= ====N======= QU== M= ===M=NRM====N================M======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU==== M============M=NRM====M= ======M======== NQM= N= ====N======= QU== N= = = = = = = = N=NRM====M= ======N======== NQM= N= ====N======= QU== N= ===M=NQM====N= ======N==========NQM= N= ====N======= QU============N== ===M=NQM====N= ======N======== NQM= N= ====N======= QU===== N= ===M=NQM====M= ======N======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU============N= ===M=NQM====N= ======N======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU== N= ===N=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= N= ====N======= QU== N= ===M=NRM====N= ======M======== NQU= N= ====M======= QU== M= ===M=NRM====M===============M==========NQU=========N=============M===========QU===========N============M=NRM====N===============M==========NQU=========N=============M===========QU===========N============N=NRM====N===============M==========NQU==========M============M===========QU===========M============N=NRM====N===============M==========NQU==========M============N===========QU===========N============N=NRM====N===============N==========NQU==========M============N===========QU===========N============N===NRM====M= = = = = =M= = = = = = =NQU= = = = = = N= ====M======== QU= M= = = = = = M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====N===========QU= N= ===M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU===========M===========M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= N============N=NRM====N= =====M======= NPR= =N= = = = = = N= = = = = = = =QU= =M= ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NPR= =N= ====N======== QU= N============M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= M= ===M=NRM====M= =====M==========NQU= =M= ====M======== QU===========N============N=NRM====M= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= M==========N=NRM====N= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= N== ===N=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= =N========= M======== QU===========N== ===M=NRM====M= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= N= = = = = = = M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====N======== QU= M============M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= M== ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQM= =N= ====N======== QU= N= ===N=NRM====M= =====N======= NQM= =N= ====N======== QU== N= ===M=NQM====N= =====N==========NQM= =N= ====N======== QU= N== ===M=NQM====N= =====N======= NQM= =N= ====N======== QU= N= ===M=NQM====M= =====N======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N==============M======= NQU== =M= ====N======== QR= N= ===N=NRM====N= =====N======= NQU= =M= ====N======== QR= N= ===N=NRM====N= =====M======= NPR= =N= ====N======== QR= N= ===N=NRM====N= =====M======= NPR== =N==========N======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= =====M==========NQU==========M===========N======== QU= N= ===N=NRM====N= =====N======= NQU== =N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= =N= ====M======== QU== M= = = = = = N=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= M========== M========= QU=== N= ===N=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M= = = = = = = M= = = = = = = =QU= = M= ===M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M== ====N======== QU= N= ===M=

PMT

NRM====N= =====M======= NQU== N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU= M= ===N=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= N= ====M======== QU===========M===========M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU== N= ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= N= ====N======== QU= M= ===N=NRM====M= =====N======= NQU==========M== ====M============QU= M= ===N=NRM====M= =====M======= NQU= N= = = = = = = = M= = = = = = = =QU= N============M=NRM====M= =====N======= NQU= N= ====M======== QU= N============M=NRM====N===============M======= NQU= N= = = = = = = N= = = = = = = =QU= M= = = = = = = M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= N= ====M======== QU== M== ===M=NRM====M= =====M======= NQM= N= ====N======== QU= N= ===N=NQR====M= =====N======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N== ===M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N== ===N=NQR====N= =====M======= NQU= N= ====N======== QU=== M= ===M==NQR====M= =====M======== NQU= N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= =====M======= NQU= M= ====M======== QU===========N===========M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M== ====M======== QU= =M= = = = = = = M=NQR====N= =====N======= NQU= M== ====N======== QU= N= = = = = = = = M=NRM====N= ====M======= NQU== N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NQR====N= = = = =N== = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= M= ===N=NQR====N= = = = =N== = = = = = NQU= N= ====M======== QU===========M======== M=NRM====N= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====M= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= N= ====N======== QU= M= ===N=NRM====M= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= N= ====M======== QU= M= ===M=NRM====M= = = = =N== = = = = = NQU= M== ====M======== QU= M= ===N=NRM====M= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= N== ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====M= = = = =N== = = = = = NQU= N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= = = = =M== = = = = = NQU= N= ====N======== QU= M============M=NRM====N= ====M========= NQU= N= ====M======== QU== M== ===M=NRM====M= = = = =M== = = = = = NQM= N= ====N======== QU= N= ===N=NRM====M= = = = =N== = = = = = NQM= N= ====N======== QU== N============N=NRM====N=============M============NQU=========N=============M============QU==========N============N=NRM====N=============M============NQU=========M=============M============QU==========M============N=NRM====N=============M============NQU=========M=============N============QU==========N============N=NRM====N=============N============NQU=========M=============N============QU==========N============N===NRM====M= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= = = = = N= ====M======== QU= M== ===M=NRM====N= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= N= ====N============QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= = = =N= = = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NQR====M= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= N= = = = = = = N= = = = = = = =QU= = M= ===M=NQR====M= = = =N= = = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N= ===N=NQR====N= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= N= ====N======== QU=== M= ===M=NQR====M= == =M=== = = = = = NQU= N= ====M======== QU= N= ===M=NRM====N= = = =M= = = = = = = NQU= M= ====M======== QU= N============M=NQR====N= = = =N= = = = = = = NQU= M= = = = = = = = M= = = = = = = = QU= = M============M=NQR====N= = = =N= = = = = = = NQU= M== ====N======== QU=========N= ===M=NQM====N= == =N=== = = = = = NQM= N= ====N======== QU= N= ===M=NQM====N= = = =N= = = = = = = NQM= N= ====N======== QU===========N= ===M=

PMU

NQM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==M==NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = ==M=NRM======M===========M=======NQU==============N===========M=========QU=======N===================M=NRM======N===========M=======NQU==============N===========M=========QU=======N===================N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= = =M= = = = QU= = = = =M= = = = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = = = = M= = = = = QU= = = = =N= = = = = = = ==N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = = M= = = = QU= = = = = =M= = ==M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== = =N= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = =M= = = = QU= = = =N= = ==M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = ==N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= ==M==== QU=======M==================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= = =M= = = = QU= = = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= = =N= = = = QU= = = =M= = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =M== = =M= = = = QU= = = =M= = = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =N= =M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= =M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = ==M==NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= =M= = = =QU== = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= =M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = ==N=NQR= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= =N= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = ==M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU== = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==M=NRM= = N= ===M========NQU============= N= M= = = =QU= = = = M= = = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = ==N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = ==N=NQR======N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU== = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= ===QU===== M============== M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M==================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = = M= = = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = ==N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = ==M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU== = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = = M= ===QU===== M============== M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=

PMV

NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M=================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M== M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NRM= = = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= ===QU==== N==================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQM= = N= N= ===QU===== N====== = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = =M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU== = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M=================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = =N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N= M= = = =QU= = = = = = =M= = =M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = N== M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = = M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M=========N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQM= = =N= N= == =QU=== = = N=== = = = = = = = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=

PNM

NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M========M= == =QU=== = = M=== = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N== = NQU== = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M================M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = N= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = = = NQM= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = =M= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = = = = = = = = M=NQO= = N= = = = = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = = M= = = = = = = = = = N=NQO= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= = = = = = =N= = = = = = QQ= = = = M= = = = = = N=NQO= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = N=NQO= = N= = = =M= = = = = NPU= = = =M= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = M=NPM= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =N= = M=NPM= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= = = = N= = = =QQ= = = =N= = N=NPM= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = =N= = M= = = =QQ= = = = M= = = = M=NQO= = M= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =N= M= = = =QQ= = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NPU= = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M====== = = = = M=NQR= = N= = = =M= = = NPU= = = =M= M= = = =QQ= = = = = =M= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= = = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = = = = =M=NQR= N= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======N= = = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU======M================ M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = ==M=======M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= = = = M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = = N= = = = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=

PNN

NQR= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU======M================ M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = M= = = =QU= = = =M= = N=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = ==N=======M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =N= M= ===QU==== N==============M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ===QU=======M============= M=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = = =M= = = NQM= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = N=NQR= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQR= = M= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = N= = = =QU= = = = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= ===QU==== N==============N=NQM=====N= = = =N= = = = = NQM= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = = N= = = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQM= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NQM= = M= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = N= = M=NQM= = N= = = =N= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =N= = N=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = N= = = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = = =QU= = = =M= = M=NRM=====M===========M========NQU=========== N=======M===========QU=======N=================M=NRM=====N===========M========NQU================N=======M===========QU=======N=================N=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= ==QU==== M====== = = = = = = = =N==NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = = = =M= = = M= = = =QU= = = = =N= = N=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = = M= = =QU= = = =M= = M=NQR= N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = =QU= = = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = = M= = =QU= = = = M= = = = = = = = = = = = M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= = N= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = N=NQR= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = =QU= = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = = NQU= = = =N= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = =M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = =QU= = = M= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= = =QU= = = = = =M= = = = = = = = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQM= = = =N= N= = =QU= = = N= = N=NQR= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = N=NQR= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= N= = =QU= = = = = =M= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = =QU= = = M= = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQM= = = =N= N= = =QU= = = N= = N=NQR= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NRM= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQR= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = = =N= = N= = =QU= = = = = = =M= = M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = =M= M= = =QU= = = N= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N=NQM= = N= = =N= = = = = NQM= = = =N= N= = =QU= = = N= = = M=NQM= = N= = =N= = = NQM= = = = = = = = = = = = = =N= N= = =QU= = = N= = M=

PNO

NQM= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = = =N= M= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQM= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = N= M= = =QU= = = N= = N=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = N= = M=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = M= M= = =QU= = = M= = N=NQR= = N= = =N= = = NQU= = = = = = = = = = = =N= M= ==QU=======M================ M=NRM= = N= = =M= = = NQU= = = = M= M= = =QU= = = =N= = M=NRM= = M= = =M= = = NQU= = N= N= = =QU= = = M= = N=NRM= = M= = =N= = = NQU= = M= = = = M= = =QU= = = M= = N=bka=========================================