FACTORS AFFECTING FACTORS AFFECTING POPULATION CHANGEPOPULATION CHANGE

There are four factors that affect There are four factors that affect population change in a country:population change in a country:

BIRTH RATE BIRTH RATE (people who are born)(people who are born) DEATH RATEDEATH RATE (people who die)(people who die)

IMMIGRATIONIMMIGRATION (people that move into the country)(people that move into the country)

EMIGRATIONEMIGRATION (people who move out of the country)(people who move out of the country)

These factors are known as These factors are known as ‘‘vital vital statisticsstatistics’’ for demographers. for demographers.

Birth RateBirth Rate

TThe number of live births per 1000 in he number of live births per 1000 in a year. a year.

Country Time Period Crude Birth Rate

Canada 2005-2010 11.1

Denmark 2005-2010 11.8

Ecuador 2005-2010 22.7

India 2005-2010 22.0

Japan 2005-2010 8.7

Source: http://esa.un.org/wpp/index.htm

Birth Rates - 2008Birth Rates - 2008

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2054rank.html

Factors influencing birth ratesFactors influencing birth rates

The number of women in the The number of women in the total population,total population,

Range of ages of female Range of ages of female population (15-49),population (15-49),

Education levelsEducation levels• Societies where women are Societies where women are

not treated equally – receive not treated equally – receive less education = less less education = less influenceinfluence

• More education = more time More education = more time in school, job outside of in school, job outside of home = fewer childrenhome = fewer children

government policiesgovernment policies,,• Population control programsPopulation control programs

the availability of contraception,the availability of contraception, Economic statusEconomic status

• Low income families – have Low income families – have more children to bring more more children to bring more income into the family income into the family

• No money for birth controlNo money for birth control Medical conditions and general Medical conditions and general

level of health care in countrylevel of health care in country• More infant and early More infant and early

childhood deathschildhood deaths• Have many children in Have many children in

hopes that some will survive hopes that some will survive to reach maturityto reach maturity

culture & religionculture & religion• Promotion of larger or Promotion of larger or

smaller familiessmaller families

British Birth Rates on the riseBritish Birth Rates on the rise

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-birth-rate-uk/home-news/british-birth-rate-leaps-by-18-in-a-decade-leaps-by-18-in-a-decade-9107483.html9107483.html

New baby boom?New baby boom?

http://www.foxnews.com/health/http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/01/29/new-baby-boom-how-global-2014/01/29/new-baby-boom-how-global-birthrates-could-bounce-back/birthrates-could-bounce-back/

DEATH RATEDEATH RATE

The number of deaths per 1000 in a The number of deaths per 1000 in a year. year.

Country Time Period Crude Death Rate

Canada 2005-2010 7.3

Denmark 2005-2010 10.1

Ecuador 2005-2010 5.0

India 2005-2010 8.1

Japan 2005-2010 8.8

Source: http://esa.un.org/wpp/index.htm

Death Rates - 2009Death Rates - 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Death_rate_world_map_CIA_2009.PNG

Factors influencing death ratesFactors influencing death rates Availability of medical servicesAvailability of medical services

• Cost of servicesCost of services

Improved sanitation or vaccination programsImproved sanitation or vaccination programs

EducationEducation• Help maintain their children’s health as well as their own Help maintain their children’s health as well as their own • Women in particular (usually the principal caregivers)Women in particular (usually the principal caregivers)

Availability of food and clean waterAvailability of food and clean water

Level of Economic developmentLevel of Economic development

War and environmental disastersWar and environmental disasters

The country’s fertility rateThe country’s fertility rate• Large population may increase the general death rates.Large population may increase the general death rates.• Child bearing in less developed countries can be dangerousChild bearing in less developed countries can be dangerous

More children a woman has, the greater chance she has of dyingMore children a woman has, the greater chance she has of dying

Case Studies (Groups of 3-4)Case Studies (Groups of 3-4)

1. A Woman’s Life in Mali (Page 170)1. A Woman’s Life in Mali (Page 170)• What conditions affect the number of What conditions affect the number of

children Sow has?children Sow has? 2. Russia’s increasing death rate 2. Russia’s increasing death rate

(Page 172)(Page 172)• What changes within Russian society What changes within Russian society

caused the dramatic changes in life caused the dramatic changes in life expectancy in that country?expectancy in that country?

IMMIGRATIONIMMIGRATION

        The number of people The number of people moving into moving into a country.a country.

  Pull factorsPull factors-characteristics of a -characteristics of a place that attracts people to it.place that attracts people to it.

EMIGRATIONEMIGRATION The number of people The number of people leavingleaving a a

countrycountry

Push FactorsPush Factors-characteristics of a -characteristics of a place that causes people to leave.place that causes people to leave.

RefugeesRefugees- people who are forced to - people who are forced to leave their country due to war, life-leave their country due to war, life-threatening discrimination, famine, or threatening discrimination, famine, or natural disasters.natural disasters.

Replacement LevelReplacement Level

Replacement LevelReplacement Level – The number – The number of children required to keep the of children required to keep the population of a country constant, not population of a country constant, not taking migration into consideration.  taking migration into consideration.  This is about 2.1 children per female This is about 2.1 children per female in MDCs and 2.5 children per female in MDCs and 2.5 children per female in LDCs.in LDCs.

Total Fertility RateTotal Fertility Rate

Total Fertility RateTotal Fertility Rate – The average – The average number of children a woman has in number of children a woman has in her lifetime in a country.her lifetime in a country.

Factors:Factors:• ReligionReligion• CultureCulture• Social values and economic statusSocial values and economic status

……Tends to be higher in less developed Tends to be higher in less developed countries. countries. 

Rate of Natural IncreaseRate of Natural Increase Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) – birth – birth

rate minus death rate, calculated as a rate minus death rate, calculated as a percentagepercentage; this ; this does not takedoes not take migration migration into considerationinto consideration

   RNI (%) =    RNI (%) =    BR  -  DRBR  -  DR                                                          10 10    (in order to get a % you must divide by 10 (in order to get a % you must divide by 10

because BR and DR are measured per because BR and DR are measured per 1000)1000)

Doubling Population RuleDoubling Population Rule

Doubling TimeDoubling Time – The time – The time in yearsin years needed for a population to double its needed for a population to double its size assuming the growth rate size assuming the growth rate remains the same.remains the same.

   DT (years) = DT (years) =    70__   70__                                                 RNIRNI

Infant Mortality Rate (<1year)Infant Mortality Rate (<1year)

based upon the number of live births that do not reach their first birthday (per 1000 births)

Underlying cause of about half of infant deaths• Malnutrition

Child Mortality Rate (1-5 years)Child Mortality Rate (1-5 years)

based upon the number of children that die between their 1st and 5th birthdays (per 1000 births)