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Fairfax County Pre-Disaster Recovery Planning:

Community-wide Project Launch

August 4, 2010

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Pre-Disaster Recovery Planning Workshop• Project Purpose and Introduction• Recovery Overview• Facilitated Discussion of Disaster Scenario and

Recovery Issues• How do we compare nationally? • Timeline and Next Steps• Vision and Goals for “Disaster Recovery”• Wrap-up and Q&A

Agenda

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Fairfax Co. Pre-Disaster Recovery Plan:

Project Purpose and Introduction

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Project History• Project DHS grant-funded by the Urban Areas

Security Initiative (UASI)• Project Kick-off (internal): December 2009• Expansion of planning to include private sector,

non-profits, neighboring jurisdictions, and interested members of the public: today

• Approximate Project Completion Date: Fall 2011

Purpose and Introduction

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Project Purpose• Streamline Fairfax County’s recovery from

disaster• Solidify four-phase emergency management

approach (mitigation, preparation, response, and recovery)

• Support the NCR in recovery planning efforts

Purpose and Introduction

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Recovery Overview

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Definitions• Response: how we manage a disaster• Continuity: what we do despite a disaster• Recovery: how we return to normal (or arrive

at a “new normal”) after a disaster

Recovery Overview

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Emergency Response• Short-term• Established funding

sources with clear utility

• Trained personnel available (Fire/EMS, public works)

Recovery Overview

Long-Term Recovery• Can last years• Need to use many

sources, often not designed for recovery

• Few trained personnel, new roles, resource strain, no established management structures

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Emergency Response• Operational goals

fairly obvious• Limited number of

players• Few question

resource needs• Limited political

issues (at least until later!)

Recovery Overview

Long-Term Recovery• Needs are subjective

and agenda-driven• Different and more

Stakeholders• Limited resources, less

clarity on benefits• Substantial political

issues

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A disaster (or catastrophe) is not just “Business as usual, but more of it.”

Recovery Overview

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Disaster recovery is not just “Response, only more of it.”

Recovery Overview

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Disaster recovery is not just “Business as usual, only after a disaster.”

Recovery Overview

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Not every hazard needs disaster recovery planning …

Recovery Overview

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Recovery Overview

Getting it done right vs.

Getting it done fast

Reduces the fundamental tension of disaster recovery:

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Recovery Overview

Flexibility to improvise + Structure to let it work

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Discussion Scenario: Radiological Dispersion Device (“Dirty Bomb”)

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Incident• A medium-sized explosion observed from a

van parked in front of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s (NGA) New Campus East facility, in Springfield

• Radiation identified; scene turned over to hazmat team

• No deaths or injuries • Driver quickly

apprehended

Discussion Scenario

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Discussion Scenario

Incident + 1 to 4 hours• Hazmat team establishes hot zone and

exclusion zone based on EPA standards• Multiple state and federal partners arrive• Evacuation and shelter-in-place guidance

issued

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Discussion Scenario

• Hot zone• Exclusion zone• Shelter in place

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Discussion Scenario

Realty Check:• Americium (typical source amount from oil

surveying equipment) detonated via 1 lb. of TNT

• Rings show increase in cancer rate: 1. 5% (1 in 100)2. 0.5% (1 in 1000)3. 0.05% (1 in 10,000)

(Journal of the Federation of American Scientists, April 2002)

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3

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Springfield area

Housing units within affected area

6000

Persons within affected area 750 920 7700

Potential radiation-related illnesses

8 1 1

Schools within affected area Lee HS, Key MS, several elementary schools

Property value within affected area

$1.7 billion

Discussion Scenario

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Discussion Scenario

The day after• All citizens evacuate from exclusion zone• Some evacuate from shelter-in-place zone as

well, others from even further away• Evacuations, mass care

and sheltering take place smoothly

• Many people check themselves into hospitals

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Discussion Scenario

Recovery Issues• Where does temporary housing get set up, if

needed?• Where do students who had attended

impacted schools go?• What if county or

regional parks are needed for debris?

• How would the public weigh in on these issues?

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Discussion Scenario

Recovery Issues• Who will determine “how clean is clean,” and

by what process? Whose data will be used?• Will thresholds be the same all uses

(residential, commercial, infrastructure)• When can repopulation begin? Where will

repopulation be allowed? • What are the implications of declaring areas

to be “permanently closed”? • How do federal and state partners plug in? • How are stakeholders and the public heard?

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Discussion Scenario

The weeks after• Repopulation is OK’d for lowest-impacted

areas, but exclusion zone are permanently closed

...

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.....

..

.....

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..

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...

• Buy-outs set up for within exclusion zone

• Uncertainty grows for neighborhoods nearby

• Contributions of housing labor and material pour in

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Discussion Scenario

Recovery Issues• How will major land-use impacts be managed

– relocation of infrastructure or housing– the “jack-o-lantern” effect– land acquisition

• How are stakeholders/ the public plugged in?• How will contributions of time, personnel, and

materials be coordinated?– Need to ensure continuity over time– Need to prevent gaps and overlaps

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Discussion Scenario

The months after• “Fairfax,” “dirty bomb,” “radiation,” and

“Chernobyl” are constantly linked in print, internet, TV, social media

• Although Springfield Mall, Lee Center, etc. are mostly beyond the exclusion zone, several large companies announce they will leave the county

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Discussion Scenario

Recovery Issues• Will there be a business retention strategy?

Who will define and manage it?• How will Fairfax County regain its reputation

as place to live and do business?• How will Fairfax County convince residents

and businesses that the event is over?• What role does the private sector play in

this?

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Discussion Scenario

The months after• Where repopulation is in doubt, developers

propose large-scale warehousing and light industrial projects

• Others argue for open space or community facilities

• Pressure builds for recovery planning to change the Comp Plan, zoning, and transportation and infrastructure priorities

SPRINGFIELD REDEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN

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Discussion Scenario

Recovery Issues• How will conflicting community interests in

the redevelopment be mediated? • Will mitigation be applied to rebuilt/

relocated housing, infrastructure, and other facilities?

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Discussion Scenario

We deliberately went “small” for this scenario, but what if it were BIG? …

• What if supply chains were compromised county- or region-wide?

• What if recovery-critical firms (Home Depot, Wal-Mart, gas stations) couldn’t reopen?

• What if childcare, salaries, benefits were held up for weeks?

• What if construction labor was unavailable?• What if personal decisions were overwhelming

or impossible to make?

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National Context & Comparison

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National Context

DHS “National Disaster Recovery Framework” (Draft Feb. 5, 2010)• Establishes six “Recovery Support Functions”

(RSFs) at the federal level• Establishes federal and state leads and defines

responsibilities across agencies• Reinforces role of local leads• Fairfax will be among the first to do a local plan

that is designed to coordinate with the emerging federal framework

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National Context

There are currently a handful of disaster recovery plans (or “reconstruction plans”) in the US• Mainly in coastal cities and resort areas

– Hurricane– Tsunami– Earthquake

• No federal mandate; only draft federal guidance to-date

Fairfax is way ahead of the curve

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National Context

(Note that this survey was not exhaustive – there may be additional Disaster Recovery/Reconstruction Plans)

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Timeline and Next Steps

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Timeline and Next Steps

Kick-off & document research (12/09-3/10)• Preliminary work with OEM, deputy county

execs• Research (best practices, EOP, HMP, NCR HIRA,

etc., etc.)• County Agency orientation event

County Agency Interviews (3/10-6/10):• Identifying planning issues • Existing resources and capabilities• Beginning to think about goals and objectives

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Timeline and Next Steps

Expanding/ Establishing the planning groups (now):

• Working with private and non-profit sectors, regional partners

• Additional interviews

Roles• Recovery Planning Working Group:

– Steering Committee– Subject Matter/ Technical Experts

• Reviewers

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Timeline and Next Steps

Reviewers

Steering Committee

Working Group

Technical Expertise

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Timeline and Next Steps

• Intent is to provide conduits for information flow

• The process needs representation of technical and subject-matter expertise

Working Group will utilize existing organizational relationships

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Timeline and Next Steps

Further out (now through summer ‘11):• Internet Survey• Working Group Meetings to Develop the Plan

– Apply our experience, national best practices– Apply your local knowledge and understanding of

how Fairfax works– Open to public whenever appropriate

• Review and revise Plan • Tabletop Exercise

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(Draft) Recovery Support Functions• Command and Coordination• Economic Development• Health, Social, and Community Services • Housing• Infrastructure and Capital Repairs• Natural and Cultural Resources

Timeline and Next Steps

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Vision and Goals for a Pre-Disaster Recovery Plan

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Recovery Vision & Goals

Vision: What would Fairfax be aiming for after a

disaster?

Goals: How will Fairfax achieve that?

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Vision: Getting back to “regular” life, but Safer, Stronger, Smarter• Maximize long-term benefits• Recognize new risks/ realities• Leverage “catalyst” projects with recovery,

social, and economic development benefits• Holistic approach: Economic, Social, Cultural,

Environmental• Mitigation, risk-reduction, and resiliency

Recovery Vision & Goals

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Goals: Be Prepared/ Be Proactive• Inventory resources (agencies, entities, funds)• Set up for local lead role, while being able to

work with your neighbors• Set up streamlined

procedures and rules – and triggers to activate them

• Keeping it “close to normal”

Recovery Vision & Goals

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Goals: Be Prepared/ Be Proactive• Clear out obstacles in advance by pre-

establishing ... – Leadership structures, potentially outside of

normal governance– Priorities and direction to guide difficult

decisions– Decision-making processes– Legal authorities– Includes NGOs

Recovery Vision & Goals

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Recovery Vision & Goals

Goal: Ensure Legitimacy and Credibility through Stakeholder Outreach and Community Participation • Work with private, non-profit sectors and other

jurisdictions• Balance interests• Safeguard equity• Long-term community

gains and short-term individual wellbeing

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Goal: Recognize Key Roles of the Private- and Non-Profit Sectors• Unlike during emergency management …• Non-government sectors do the “heavy lifting”

of disaster recovery • Government participates as a “facilitating

stakeholder”

Recovery Vision & Goals

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Goal: Build on Existing Deliberative Planning and Organizational Relationships

• Comprehensive Plan• Area and Neighborhood Plans• Mitigation and Flood Management Plans• Economic Development Strategies• Transportation and Capital

Improvement Plans• VOAD Planning• Volunteer/ Donations Mgt.

Planning

Recovery Vision & Goals

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Closing thoughts and Q&A