faith in the future - kungahuset.se

f a i t h i n t h e f u t u r e
t h e r o y a l P r o f e s s o r s ’ s y m P o s i u m o n G l o b a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y
s w e d e n , 2 2 m a r c h 2 0 1 2
How Science can help in Meeting Environmental Challenges

P r o G r a m m e
t h e b e r n a d o t t e l i b r a r y , t h e r o y a l P a l a c e i n s t o c k h o l m

Faith in the Future forty years ago stockholm hosted the united nations conference on the
human environment, known as the stockholm conference. this was the first major international meeting on environmental issues and became an
important turning point in the development of environmental politics.
much has happened since then.
an exciting perspective is to ask how science can help in meeting complex environmental challenges. one way of approaching this question is to invite distinguished scientists with different expertise to a discussion about possible ways forward. that is the aim of this symposium.
we are glad that all fourteen of the participants in the royal Guest Professorship programme have accepted the invitation to this symposium – it is the first time the royal Guest Professors have come together and we look forward to listening to their views on the environment today and in the future.
the symposium is part of the official national commemoration of the first un conference on the environment, 1972 in stockholm, and has been arranged together with the swedish scientific academies. they all have a strong interest in – and great knowledge of – the environmental area.
we have also invited outstanding representatives of the scientific community, politics, business and non-governmental organisations. let’s hope we won’t only hear about environmental problems but also discuss ways to solve them.
science can provide solutions to problems. starting now, we must make full use of the potential that research and development can offer so that we think of the future not with despair but with hope and faith.
it is my sincere hope that this symposium will be able to convey such constructive messages, not only to the decision-makers at the coming rio+20 conference, but also to every one of us who worry about the future of our children and grandchildren.
i would like to thank all and everyone who made this symposium possible,
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the king carl XVi Gustaf 0th anniversary fund for science, technology and environment was founded in 199 to celebrate his majesty’s 0th birthday. the four original founders were the royal swedish academy of sciences (kVa), the royal swedish academy of engineering sciences (iVa), the royal swedish academy of agricultural sciences (ksla) and the confederation of swedish enterprise (svenskt näringsliv, then sveriges industriförbund).
the purpose was to promote research, technological development and enterprise that would contribute to the sustainable use of natural resources and the maintenance of biodiversity. the governing body awards grants to 1–20 young researchers annually.
the foundation for strategic environmental research, mistra, and the swedish foundation for international cooperation in research and higher education, stint, also decided to contribute to honouring his majesty on his birthday by funding one international guest professor per year for five years. this programme was prolonged for another five years and has subsequently received financial support directly from the king carl XVi Gustaf 0th anniversary fund.
the royal Guest Professorship has become a very important way to promote high-quality research across the broad spectrum of the environmental sciences, in both their social and their natural-scientific aspects.
the purpose of the Professorship is to create links between our centres of higher learning and distinguished foreign researchers able to contribute to the renewal of swedish environmental sciences. the Guest Professor should bring a unique addition of competence to the swedish host institution and also be able to contribute to the development of the research conducted there.
‘environmental sciences’ is interpreted broadly to include research in technology, in the natural and the social sciences and in the humanities. the Guest Professor is expected to combine a high level of scientific competence with a trans-disciplinary approach.
the holder of the Professorship is appointed by the governing body of the 0th anniversary fund after a preparation process in a working committee with external experts.
What better birthday gift than a fund of knowledge?
The idea behind the Royal Guest Professorship and the work of the King Carl XVI Gustaf 50th Anniversary Fund.
m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n Nominations to the Royal Guest Professorship can be made annually by Swedish universities. Each university may nominate two candidates each year. For more information see the Nomination Procedures, obtainable from the King Carl XVI Gustaf 50th Anniversary Fund for Science, Technology and Environment, Attn. Birgit Erngren Wohlin, Kungl. Slottet, 111 30 Stockholm, e-mail: [email protected]
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royal melbourne institute of technoloGy (rmit), melbourne, australia
Environmental Literacy in Science and Society: from Knowledge to Decisions Professor roland w. scholZ, eth,
institute for enVironmental decisions (ied), Zürich, switZerland
New Economy of Natural Resources for Sustainable Use Professor Jason shoGren,
uniVeristy of wyominG, dePartment of economics and finance, laramie, usa
Science and Policy: building Constructive Connections Professor susan owens,
uniVeristy of cambridGe, dePartment of GeoGraPhy, cambridGe, uk
Coffee break
Panel Dialogue
Professor susan baker, cardiff uniVeristy school of social sciences, cardiff, uk:
Global Environmental Change and the Governance of Sustainable Development:
a Social Science Perspective
Professor Garry brewer, yale school of manaGement, new haVen, usa:
Environmental Management and Decision Support in Society for Climate and Energy
Professor andrew warren, uniVersity colleGe london,
dePartment of GeoGraPhy, london, uk:
The Dry Lands: vulnerability to Climatic Change within Rapidly Changing
Economic and Social Environment
france and institute scholar at iiasa in laXenburG, austria:
Deficits, energy and economic growth
Concluding Remarks kerstin niblaeus, chair of the symPosium orGanisation committee
moderators:
Johan kuylenstierna, centre director, stockholm enVironment institute & adJunct
Professor, stockholm uniVersity (Afternoon Session)
eVeninG: 19 . 0 0
Dinner at the Royal Palace
f a i t h i n t h e f u t u r e Programme
morninG session: 9 .00 –12.00
Theme I The present situation and the way forward:
perspectives on climate change, biodiversity depletion and implications for human health.
Welcome Address kerstin niblaeus, chair of the symPosium orGanisation committee
Choral Music
The Importance of Environmental Science for Future Solutions his maJesty the kinG
The Science behind Projections of Forced Climate Change: Historical Basis, open Questions and Implications for Policymakers
Professor emeritus robert charlson, uniVeristy of washinGton,
atmosPheric sciences, usa
Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Human Health Professor Paul alan coX, institute for ethnomedicine, Jackson, wyominG, usa
Short break
Panel discussion
Professor lesley head, uniV. of wollonGonG , australian centre for cultural
enVironmental research (ausccer), australia:
Climate; Water; Risk Assessments
diVision of atmosPheric sciences, helsinki, finland:
Meteorology: Atmospheric Aerosol Particles
Modelling Past Changes in Biodiversity, Ecosystems and Climate
Lunch
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carl linnaeus wrote, “i do not know how the world could persist gracefully if but a single animal species were to vanish from it.”
species are vanishing at a terrifying rate at the moment and the loss of biodiversity worries Professor Paul alan cox, expert in ethnomedicine and deeply engaged in several transdisciplinary projects – some of them in sweden.
“the link between human health and biodiversity – ‘environmental health’ – started with linnaeus, who pioneered an interdisciplinary approach to many of these important issues in sweden. such a broad approach is still very valuable.”
cox cites one example of investigations requiring interdisciplinary collaboration: the hypothesis that neurodegenerative diseases such as alzheimer’s, als, and Parkinson disease are associated with cyanobacterial blooms, blue-green algae such as occur in the baltic. to explore the possibility that a cyanobacterial toxin might trigger such diseases, experts from the department of botany and amino acid chemists from the department of chemistry in stockholm have joined with neurologists at karolinska institutet and scientists at the department of Pharmaceutical biosciences, uppsala university.
“swedish scientists are making key contributions to this investigation which may lead to new cures for these most serious of illnesses,” cox says.
despite the grave nature of the environmental problems, Paul alan cox has one very good reason to be optimistic.
“every time i meet children and young students i get hope for the future. once, for instance, at the convention on international trade in endangered species in lausanne, switzerland, we international delegates were caught in a difficult discussion on the protection of african elephants. into the conference hall came a group of local schoolchildren, singing a little song about saving the elephants. this surprising interruption changed everything: we stopped arguing and started a constructive dialogue.”
cox has great confidence in the next generation.
“human health and environmental health are linked. linnaeus knew it, but our generation seems to have forgotten. i think our children will do a far better job than we did to make the right decisions.”
P a u l a l a n c o X eXecutiVe director, institute for ethnomedicine,
Jackson hole wyominG, usa
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 1997/1998 at the swedish university of agricultural sciences (slu)
ContaCt: [email protected]
Future human health is a matter of biodiversity
P a u l a l a n c o X
adVice to decision-makers:
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r o b e r t J . c h a r l s o n Professor emeritus of atmosPheric sciences and chemistry,
uniVersity of washinGton, seattle, usa
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 1999/2000 at stockholm university
“A low-carbon future needs to be a natural thought. Then it will automatically affect
business plans as well as political decisions.”
when Professor bob charlson shows up in stockholm for the royal environmental symposium he believes it will be his th visit to sweden.
“in sweden you have a strong position in atmospheric chemistry and other climate sciences, starting with svante arrhenius over a hundred years ago, continuing with leaders like carl-Gustaf rossby and bert bolin and now strong research groups in stockholm, Göteborg and lund.“
bob charlson’ s own story starts in the 190s after finishing his post-doc in cloud physics at imperial college in london. on his way back to the states, travelling across the atlantic on the “r.m.s. Queen elizabeth”, he remembers once standing by the ship’s rail, looking out at the foggy sea and formulating his first research question:
“i asked myself: why this haze? the visibility should be good out here. is it due to humidity or the amount of small particles, aerosols?”
to be able to answer this question, he developed a new light-scattering instrument called an integrating nephelometer. important breakthroughs came in the mid-1970s when he was involved in measuring man-made aerosols, especially sulphates, in industrial regions.
hence bob charlson was one of the first to realize that those substances had a cooling effect on the climate. is it possible now, decades of model improvements later, to get his opinion about the cooling influence of aerosols compared to the warming effects of greenhouse gases?
“on a global scale man-made aerosol counts only for a fraction of the effect of greenhouse gases. it is also important to understand that, just because they have an opposite effect on the climate, they do not counteract each other at the same time and place in a simple way.”
so it is not possible to add more aerosols in the atmosphere to reduce the warming of our planet?
“no, this is hubris! what we need to do is to cut emissions and start a serious discussion with people on how their lives will look like in a low- carbon future. besides, if we continue to cause co2 to increase, we would have to continue to add more and more aerosols to achieve enough cooling. it would be very hazy on a global scale. is that what we want?”
“world society needs a clear understanding of the scientific facts of forced climate change. there is no basis in the population at large for sensing the urgency of the need for control of co2 emissions globally.”
What will our lives look like in a low-carbon future?
b o b c h a r l s o n
G a r r y b r e w e r Professor, yale school of manaGement, new haVen, usa
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 1998/1999 at the Royal institute of technology (Kth)
eXPectations of the royal symPosium:
“It seems to be a very interesting interdisciplinary meeting – but most of all I look forward to seeing all my friends and colleagues in Stockholm.”
what do the challenGes for the next generation’s leaders look like? in politics as well as in business, Professor Garry brewer from yale’s school of management is certain about one thing.
“the environmental problems are more difficult to deal with than we might have thought – we are handing the next generation a situation that is far more urgent than it was for us.”
so, what is brewer’s advice? how are we supposed to tackle the situation?
“i have always been interested in organizational issues connected to interdisciplinary research, especially the involvement of stakeholders and relations among and between experts and decision-makers.”
nowadays everybody embraces initiatives that bridge different academic disciplines, but in the 1970s Garry brewer was one of the pioneers. now he is something of an expert at being ‘in between’ other experts.
“there are many factors that make environmental problem-solving difficult. among these are scientists who choose to focus narrowly on selected aspects of some wickedly complicated issues. even different science specialists with the best of intentions often find it difficult to understand one another. the communication challenges become even greater
as scientific experts, decision-makers and the public at large attempt to find a common language and common ground.”
brewer has developed many communication channels between groups of people with different expertise. one of his most important ideas came to him when he was working with nature conservationists in the amazon.
“the people working in nature conservation know how to preserve forests and other ecosystems, but they seldom know how to run a successful organization. the skills for doing both things well are basically different.”
Garry brewer’s idea was to combine professional education in environmental science with business management. with support from the Gordon and betty moore foundation, he developed a three-year joint degree programme at yale in which students earn both an mba and a master of environment science. this has become a success story.
“the most recent version expands on this basic idea by forming a brand-new partnership between yale’s environment school and the school of management at the university of the andes in bogotá, colombia. these students are equipped with the best environmental and business tools we can give them at present!”
Let’s connect environmental problems and business leadership
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a n d r e w w a r r e n Professor emeritus of GeoGraPhy, uniVersity colleGe london
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2000/2001 at lund university
“I look forward to learning from the Royal Professors and the other participants.“
the southern edGe of the sahara, the sahel, has been both much wetter and much drier than it is today. five thousand years ago, lake chad was a freshwater lake bigger than the caspian; some time in the late Pleistocene, dunes were moving in northern nigeria. changes, to the wet or the dry, will certainly come again, and may be exacerbated by induced climatic change.
Professor andrew warren calls himself an “aeolian geomorphologist”, and as such he has visited, and investigated, some of the dustiest places on earth. he has studied dunes, wind erosion and dust, much of the time in the sahel.
“i began with the now-vegetated dunes of central sudan, and this brought me into contact with colleagues in lund. after working on dunes elsewhere, and on one of the four main general background papers for the nairobi un conference on desertification, i returned to sahel in niger to study wind erosion, collaborating in that study with social scientists.”
in the north of chad, the historic lake is now one of the driest places on earth, and its dustiest. most of the dust comes from deposits of diatomite during the wetter periods. while this dust is hated in the sahel, since it irritates the throat and can carry diseases, the harmattan wind, which carries the dust, brings some
nutrients to its poor sandy fields and, it has been said, after an excursion across the atlantic, becomes the main source of nutrients to the amazon forests.
the fertilization of sahelian fields has been the subject of many interesting research programmes for warren and colleagues.
“the sandy soils are the easiest to till with a hoe (there are very few ploughs), but they are also the poorest. by trial and error, sahelians have developed methods to make these fields productive. agricultural strategies are intricately woven with social ones, such as migration to work in the wetter south in the dry season and return to the fields when labour is needed in the wet months.”
the sahelians’ future is not all bleak. andrew warren believes that new agronomic strategies will offer a step in the right direction.
“if agricultural innovation is carefully adapted to local practice it can succeed, and social and economic change may also help”, he says. “one of these changes is the demographic drift to towns and cities. if this leads to a rise in the price of food, as some believe, farming may attract more investment.”
We see many new interesting agricultural strategies
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Cities have shown that they are capable of enabling change
c o l i n f u d G e Professor and Pro Vice-chancellor, colleGe of desiGn
and social conteXt; and Vice President, royal melbourne institute of technoloGy (rmit), melbourne, australia
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2002/200 at the Royal institute of technology (Kth) and Chalmers university of technology
“The generous invitation to this Symposium is a real opportunity for all of us to contribute
to global environment futures together and potentially make a difference.”
chanGe. we need chanGe. we hear this all the time: the lifestyles of citizens in stockholm, london and melbourne and countless cities across the globe are threatening a sustainable future. Professor colin fudge has a background in architecture, urban design and city and regional planning. he loves all three of these cities and has spent his academic and professional life understanding how cities in general can become more sustainable and more attractive to live in. it is in the existing cities, the expanding cities and the new cities that we must urgently adapt to climate change, reduce our resource dependence and carbon emissions, promote healthy living and come to terms with new economic and social conditions.
as one of the world’s most influential researchers and policy advisors on sustainable urban futures, what does Professor fudge say about sustainable urban development?
“first, we have to realize that the future is already here. the recent iPcc and international energy authority reports demonstrate that the anthroprocene period we have now entered puts pressure on us all to move more urgently to solving the interrelationship between humans, human activities and the limits of the planet.”
“in the developed world we need to be examining our lifestyles seriously and get on with adapting and retrofitting our existing
cities. in the newly-developing world there are two large tasks, adapting and expanding existing cities and building new cities and infrastructure. in africa special support, thinking and action are needed to help african countries cope with large scale urbanisation whilst countering poverty, food, health and security concerns.”
this massive agenda and change will take time. colin fudge agrees:
“the thinking, creativity, innovation and strategic leadership and governance required to overcome inertia and status-quo thinking suggest the need for paradigm shifts and going beyond behavioural change. we need to move faster on this.”
while negotiations at international and national levels are slow, difficult and failing, cities or parts of cities and communities have shown that they are capable of change. scaling up from small innovations is one issue, rethinking economic ideas is another.
colin fudge says we have to be optimistic and energized by these challenges. “my own transition community breaks the problem down, achieves small steps, assists with real change and is thinking all the time about how to build capacity to scale up.”
c o l i n f u d G e
How do human and environmental systems interact?
r o l a n d w . s c h o l Z Professor and chair of natural and social science interface, dePartment of enVironmental sciences, swiss federal institute of technoloGy, eth Zurich
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2001/2002 at the university of Gothenburg and Chalmers university of technology
lessons learnt:
“Riding 19 Alpine passes in a seven-day bike race I learned much about what motivational, cognitive and physical skills are required to feel in harmony with the environment.”
what do the maya PeoPle know about cancer treatment? and what can we learn from them?
Professor roland scholz went to Guatemala to find out. in a unique collaboration he has been able to relate the scientific conceptions of cancer underlying our western treatments to the unrecorded wisdom and traditions of the maya people who have treated tumours and cancer for hundreds of years.
“this project started from a theoretical question. we were looking at the immune system as a cognitive system and we wanted to better understand how the mind and brain work with the function of the immune system. the cognitive-spiritual aspects of maya medicine, like their habits, attitudes and expectations when they establish a therapeutic alliance; how they value and incorporate close family relations in therapy and the way they target harmony with nature, may provide valuable insight about mind-and-body relationships.”
scholz stresses: “my methodology in the maya cancer project is based upon mutual respect and collaboration on equal terms. it is still early to draw any conclusions, but it looks very promising that we can fruitfully relate our scientific knowledge to their cultural and spiritual traditions.”
it is interesting that the maya elders are asking for further transdisciplinary processes. all their cancer therapies include the application of plant and herbal medicine. a severe problem the mayas are facing is the loss of these plants due to clearing the tropical forest.
“no-one knows how many species are extinct already. but one thing is for sure: the maya people no longer find all the plants they used in the past!”
scholz and his team have also initiated transdisciplinary processes in other fields. the “Global transdisciplinary Process for sustainable Phosphorus management” includes key actors throughout the supply chain, from exploration via the mining and processing of phosphorus for food and technical processes to recycling and to assessing the negative aspects of current phosphorus use.
with insights from these and other projects scholz argues that global problems and dynamics are now so complex and inter-linked that we need a ‘system literacy’ never seen before.
“environmental and human systems have different rationales. this calls for a new kind of science, a sustainability science which investigates how human and environmental systems interact. and transdisciplinarity is a key to this new science.”
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r o b e r t u . a y r e s emeritus Professor of economics and Political science
and technoloGy manaGement at insead, fontainebleau, france. also, institute scholar, international institute for adVanced systems analysis (iiasa)
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2004/2005 at Chalmers university of technology
“I would like a discussion on economic growth and our use of natural resources.“
Professor emeritus robert ayres is the physicist who learned economics to be able to understand the world a little bit better. he has managed to bridge between the two academic disciplines in very productive ways and developed a new connection between economic growth and our use of energy or natural resources.
when robert ayres comes to stockholm for the royal environment symposium, he is clear about what he hopes for.
“the time has come when we really have to pay attention to the need for a new way of looking at economic growth. i hope that this will lead to a very interesting discussion. you know, what we really need now is a good argument between economists and scientists from the natural sciences.”
so, what’s the argument about? robert ayres’ current work on the interface between peak oil, climate change and economics has led him to quite a revolutionary idea.
“in principle, the whole neo-classical theory of economics is built upon assumptions that simply are not valid”, ayres claims and continues:
“the standard economic theory allows for economic growth without energy, which is impossible. it therefore assumes that our descendants will be a lot richer than we are, which has a dangerous implication like: why invest in cleaning up now when our
grandchildren will be so much richer?”
robert ayres’ own main contribution to the theory of economic growth is to include our use of energy, or useful energy to be more exact. this is a concept he has borrowed from thermodynamics.
“most economists assume that only capital stock and labour supply are ‘factors of production’, but that theory cannot explain growth. useful energy (exergy) is essential to the economy because human workers can’t work without being fed, and neither can machines. but for the past two hundred years, economic growth has been possible largely due to the declining effective cost of energy.”
but what about the future? robert ayres believes in energy efficiency, recycling and new technology that improve our use of energy. he says that increasing the efficiency with which energy is converted to useful work in the economy will be an even more important driver of growth in the future.
“in a way, we need to ‘de-materialize’ the economy, to stop linking economic growth to the use of energy. consumers are interested in the services the products provide, not the goods themselves.”
robert ayres summarizes: “seeing energy as a factor of production means that there will not be any growth if we don’t invest in new, non-carbon sources of energy and do it now – not in ten or twenty years.”
I expect a good argument!
r o b e r t a y r e s
With a hammer in your hand, every problem you see is a nail
s u s a n b a k e r Professor of enVironmental social science, cardiff
uniVersity, uk
“I think it would be very valuable if we could set up a group or a Council of Royal Professors to address trans-disciplinary problems in this area and create new synergies.”
Professor susan baker’s research is about the governance of sustainable development in the context of global environmental change.
she sees many barriers that need to be to overcome, emphasizing the call for more knowledge of the social aspects of global environmental change and especially the dynamics of the relationship between the natural system and the social world.
susan baker wants to take the discussion forward on the concept of resilience, a system’s ability to cope with change. she argues that the world is far more complex than that:
“there are lots of social systems that are resilient but not environmentally friendly, and resilient environments do not necessarily promote social justice. our task is to find how best to govern our future in ways that support both ecological resilience and social equity in the context of sustainable development.
“there are no easy ways forward”, she continues, “but our first step is to take a deep look at our relationship with nature. if we open our minds we will become far more humble and thus more willing to admit that we are making mistakes”.
Professor baker is concerned that the urgency of the problem of global environmental change may see us act without thinking of the long-
term consequences and their impact upon the promotion of sustainable development. “what we don’t want”, she says “is to create more problems for future generations”.
she also wants to think positively and practically about ‘sustainable development’.
“actually, i don’t know what sustainable development is”, she says, “because like all broad-brush political concepts, its meaning is formed in practice”.
to make sure we have the right set of tools to support that practice, we need to start thinking differently. susan baker calls for a new way of thinking:
“if you have a hammer in your hand, every problem you see is a nail. when addressing global environment challenges this means that we tend to do what we can do, rather than what we should do. if we start thinking in new ways about what we should do, then we can start to think about how to make that happen.”
“our governance ‘toolbox’ currently contains regulatory and market instruments and uses participatory processes, and they function differently on different spatial and temporal scales. we need to start thinking about how to combine these tools to support our sustainable future. how do we make a smart, multi-model governance mix? what new tools do we need?”
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We need a shift in conceptual and practical understanding
l e s l e y h e a d Professor of GeoGraPhy and director, australian
centre for cultural enVironmental research (ausccer), uniVersity of wollonGonG, australia
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2005/2006 at Kristianstad university
“To get traction on sustainability issues we need attitudes, practices, technology and governance to work in the same direction rather than against each other. The worst current
example is the link between economic growth and enhanced greenhouse gas emissions. How can we decouple these two?”
“i haVe always been interested in the relationship between people and the environment – today this issue seems to be more important than ever.”
Professor lesley head is an influential australian cultural geographer. in her research she is using different approaches to the challenge of sustainable development, both conceptually and in everyday life.
“we need a shift in how we view the human- nature relation. how can we create a good life with less use of resources and decrease the damage to the environment? the great challenge is to achieve prosperity by other means than economic growth. ”
lesley head is convinced that we can learn much from indigenous people and this is an important area of comparison between australia and sweden. Perspectives of aboriginal as well as samian people challenge the dominant mindsets. her research interest started with aboriginal land use, connected to ethnobotany as well as fire. she started her career using palaeoecology and archaeology to study long-term changes in the australian landscape and the interactions between prehistoric people with their environments.
“not that we should all live like hunters and gatherers. but we have to widen our
perspectives and reflect more on how we live together and with nature.”
lesley head does not agree that we necessarily become less in touch with nature when we leave the countryside and move to growing cities.
“again, it is a matter of broadening our perspectives. urban life is still underpinned by ecological systems and processes. for urban people issues like food, water and green areas are of great importance; nature is more than ‘some green things far away’. but our relationship to nature looks different in different cultures and we need to learn more about how it works.”
so, what can be done?
“well, we in the west have long used a model where we see people as separated from nature. this leads to boundaries and separation of protected areas and other ‘patches of nature’. this model does not work very well, since human activities now pervade nearly all earth surface processes. we need to develop thinking in which humans are integrated with the rest of nature, but which is also able to systematically analyze human differences and power. Protected areas, production areas and urban areas must all be understood as important components of the landscape.”
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J a s o n s h o G r e n stroock Professor of natural resource conserVation
& manaGement, uniVersity of wyominG, usa
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2007 /2008 at umeå university
“Keep breaking down the barriers between different disciplines.”
how do climate chanGe and other environment problems affect our economies? and vice versa: how does our economic behaviour, like consumption, affect the environment?
Professor Jason shogren is interested in this dynamics and it has taken him all the way to the nobel Peace Prize – at least he was part of the united nations team on climate change, working with two thousand other scientists and the former Vice president al Gore.
“science needs to explore the feedback loops in both directions. People affect nature; nature affects people. in thinking about climate risks, for instance, we need to understand better how mitigation and adaptation choices are interlinked; how our choices affect the climate risks and costs of protecting humans and natural systems. by explicitly identifying and examining feedback loops between these systems, we can make good policy better by supplying more environmental protection at less cost.”
risk assessment in natural resources is one of shogren’s areas of expertise. in various projects over the past twenty years he has investigated how societies choose to manage their stock of biological diversity, to design cost-effective strategies to reduce risks from climate change, and to value ecosystem services typically not
bought and sold in the marketplace.
“basically, we have three different views on the problem. if you ask mainstream economists they will worry about the markets. environmental economists will be worried about missing markets and then there are non- economists who don’t even consider the role of markets in environmental problems.”
Jason shogren argues that we need more knowledge about the feedbacks in the economic-ecologic world we live in, to be able to address future challenges properly.
“there are still lots of barriers between academic disciplines that need to be broken down. economists must talk to environmental scientists, and i do look forward to the royal environment symposium as one attempt in this direction.”
and what about the future?
“i hope that we in the western world can provide technologies and methods and share them with the developing world. then they might be able to achieve more prosperity while maintaining environmental protection.”
Understanding ecosystems and economic systems is the same
J a s o n s h o G r e n
“There are different ways of being precautionary – the most important is that we cannot afford to just accept the risks inherent in future climate change.“
How precautionary do we need to be?
k e i t h b e V e n Professor of hydroloGy and fluid dynamics, lancaster uniVersity, uk
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2006/2007 at uppsala university
“the Question of how climate change is affecting our societies is now a political issue; it is not in the hands of scientists. now it is up to our decision-makers to take action.”
Professor keith beven is frank. he has spent his career understanding hydrological systems, with special interest in modelling and investigating the uncertainties associated with environmental problems. his experience suggests that the uncertainties associated with climate models may mean that the risks of climate change are being underestimated. the fact that future projects are uncertain, he argues, should not stop us from acting.
“the models we use today are better than just a few years ago. in the future we will be able to do even better predictions. but this will take time and it is not clear that we can afford to wait. my concern is that the present models are under-predicting the rate of change, which means we would be facing a more serious situation than we have thought so far. so, basically, i think the uncertainties are not an excuse for doing nothing because that would be accepting risks to a possibly dangerous degree.”
beven thinks that one important political decision is to ensure we are robust to change and improve our defence systems. one example is a project run by the environment agency of england and wales, the thames estuary 2100 Plan. it advocates a flexible
adaptive approach to future change and has specifically evaluated the need for a new thames barrier to protect Greater london against future flooding.
“in this case, being precautionary is perhaps just more obvious. so much of london’s infrastructure is at risk and the houses of Parliament are located just by the river. the politicians just need to look out of the windows to be aware of the risk!”
so finally, is keith beven optimistic or pessimistic about the future?
“when it comes to international agreements i am pessimistic, but this means that being precautionary at national level is even more important. i am more optimistic that politicians might be persuaded that investment in more new technologies to mitigate the effects of change would be worthwhile.”
“this has to include measures to protect some of the developing countries that are most at risk. these issues have been recently overtaken by the various financial crises of the last few years, but they will not go away. we can, of course, choose to be risk-accepting and not to invest to be more robust with respect to future change – but at least that decision should be made on the basis of reasoned argument relative to other demands on resources.”
k e i t h b e V e n
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s u s a n o w e n s Professor of enVironment and Policy, and head of
dePartment of GeoGraPhy, uniVersity of cambridGe, uk
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2008 /2009 at stockholm Resilience Centre at stockholm university, and the Royal institute of technology (Kth)
“It will be wonderful to meet all the other Royal Professors. I like the idea of focusing the discussion on climate and biodiversity and letting the participants
apply their particular areas of expertise to those issues.”
as the ParticiPants Gather in the bernadotte library for the 2012 royal environment symposium, the presence of Professor susan owens adds yet another dimension to the event.
the symposium is not only an opportunity for trans-disciplinary discussions between guests from science, business, politics and nGos, but their interactions can themselves be an important subject for research. for susan owens is investigating the relationships between scientists and decision-makers.
she emphasizes the importance of understanding and discussing what we want science to do for us.
“what is the proper role of science in a modern democracy?” she asks, and continues:
“in future, i hope we can develop a better capacity to recognize science as a social activity and find ways to articulate what we want.”
during her year in sweden, at the stockholm resilience centre at stockholm university and the environmental strategies Group at kth, she was able to dig deeper into the complex relations between knowledge and policy. she was surprised at how little is actually understood about these critical interactions, and how often they are misrepresented.
for instance, it is often said that decision- makers fail to act on scientific advice because they find it difficult to understand uncertainties and to evaluate the risks connected with, for example, environmental problems or new technologies. susan owens does not agree.
“it’s far more complicated than that”, she says with emphasis. “when politicians do not act, this is about much more than uncertainty. if they hesitate, it is because they have many considerations to take into account. the most difficult issues are nearly always political and ethical as well as scientific. this is something scientists must understand.”
owens wants to move on from the simple linear-rational model, which sees scientific knowledge as being ‘transferred into policy’, to more complex understanding. we have to ask, ‘how does science influence policy?’ and also ‘how do political cultures affect what counts as authoritative knowledge?’ in complex controversies, she argues, science, politics and policy-making are often extremely difficult to tease apart.
“we have a great deal to learn about the factors involved in science-policy interactions. what is really going on here? this is one of the most important questions to address if we aspire to a sustainable future.”
What do we have science for?
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From history we can learn about the future
s h i n y a s u G i t a senior research scientist, institute of ecoloGy,
tallinn uniVersity, tallinn, estonia
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2010 /2011 at linnaeus university in sweden
“I think it is very important that we develop our ability to listen We must listen more
carefully to people from different fields.
as a little boy in Japan, shinya sugita was fascinated by history. he was also interested in plants and wildlife. now he is combining the two, by investigating what ecosystems looked like long ago, and how they adapted to climate changes.
shinya sugita is the current royal Professor and especially glad to be in sweden, since it was here the geo-historian lennart von Post started this branch of research a hundred years ago.
“actually, what von Post was doing – collecting pollen from sediments – is also the method we are using today. but we understand better now how to interpret pollen records using mathematical models.”
sugita has developed a sophisticated new model that provides relevant information of the past changes in vegetation and land use from pollen records. he also hopes to help make future projections of the climate impacts on our ecosystems using environmental history.
“basically, it is a very simple model. we collect fossil pollen from sediments; each plant produces pollen that differs in shape and size, and thus in its dispersal distance among species. in addition the amount of pollen produced varies a lot from species to species. we needed models to link the amounts of pollen in sediments to the number of individual plants or plant cover, using all these factors.”
so far so good, but how can sugita know that his model works?
“we are using information from today. by collecting pollens from sediments close to the surface, we find pollen grains that are just a few years old. with the model we can predict the landscape they come from and compare to what it looks like today.”
although this seems quite straightforward and shinya sugita claims that it is a very simple model, he finds it difficult to explain to others how it works.
“traditional palaeoecologists and botanists are not so familiar with mathematical models, and mathematicians are not very good at environmental issues – so we end up in different academic fields and get stuck there.”
he does not have a simple recipe for solving this problem, but emphasizes the importance of meeting other scientists from the natural sciences, the humanities and the social sciences.
according to shinya sugita, environmental science and history have many similarities.
“everything is connected! to understand the complexity, we need knowledge from many areas. the symposium at the royal Palace will be an important opportunity to listen to each other.”
s h i n y a s u G i t a
What is going on in the atmosphere?
m a r k k u k u l m a l a Professor of aerosol and enVironmental Physics, uniVersity of helsinki, finland
Royal Guest PRofessoRshiP: 2009 /2010 at stockholm university and lund university
“To obtain a sustainable world we need continuous, comprehensive measurements and good interlinks between policy and science.”
eVery day we hear about increasing greenhouse gas emissions and many of us are worried about how they will affect our future.
markku kulmala is an expert in the field. as a physicist he has been able to further our knowledge and understanding of the atmosphere, especially by studying small atmospheric particles – aerosols – and their interactions with greenhouse gases.
forest ecosystems produce lots of aerosol particles. Volatile organic compounds such as ‘monoterpenes’ are produced as by-products of photosynthesis. actually by studying reactions both inside plants and in the atmosphere, markku kulmala can get a view of how atmospheric aerosols will behave in the future. he sees many knowledge gaps still to fill.
“we need to know more about the very complicated feedback systems. and to do so we need comprehensive, continuous measurements and smarter models.”
one important feedback loop is the connection between greenhouse gases and aerosols. aerosols, as opposed to greenhouse gases like co2, have a cooling effect on the climate. using present measurement networks, however, we can only study a limited number of atmospheric
compounds. kulmala sees the necessity of developing new comprehensive measurement stations that can measure greenhouse gases and aerosols at the same time, and also trace gases, soil properties etc. since the world-leading scientists in this field are working in sweden and finland, it is natural to start here.
“we are now developing a new infrastructure here in scandinavia. with data from these new stations we can build better models and, hopefully, increase our understanding of the mechanisms behind the feedback loops in the atmosphere.”
having said that, markku kulmala seems to be both optimistic and pessimistic about the future.
“actually, i’m quite optimistic about the research. i think we will be able to understand these complicated mechanisms much better in the next –10 years. this has important implications for the development of technical solutions, of course,. but as to social side of this issue, i am more pessimistic. how do we change our lifestyle for a more sustainable future? i think we need to improve the social sciences to tackle this extremely difficult and vital issue.”
m a r k k u k u l m a l a
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mistra
the swedish foundation for strategic environmental research – mistra – supports research of strategic importance for a good living environment and sustainable development. it seeks to promote the development of strong research environments. opportunities to achieve industrial applications are to be pursued to the full. mistra invests in interdisciplinary research of the highest quality which, in collaboration with end -users, will contribute to the sustainable development of society.
www.mistra.org
stint
the swedish foundation for international cooperation in research and higher education, stint, was set up in 199 by an act of the swedish Parliament. its mission is to promote internationalization of swedish higher education and research. stint offers a range of funding and scholarship programmes in support of strategic internationalization at higher-education institutions. it is also an actor with competence and knowledge relating to international academic collaboration.
www.stint.se
E-mail [email protected] http://www.stint.se
marcus wallenberGs stiftelse för internationellt VetenskaPliGt samarbete
the foundation was established on 0 march 197 by a donation from skandinaviska enskilda banken to honour dr. tech. marcus wallenberg (199–192), when he resigned as chairman of the bank’s board of directors. the purpose of the foundation is to support international scientific symposia in sweden.
www.wallenberg.com
riksbankens Jubileumsfond
riksbankens Jubileumsfond (rJ) is an independent foundation whose aim is to promote and support scientific research in the humanities and social sciences. the rJ supports qualified research by providing grants to individual researchers or academic groups based in sweden. the foundation rJ approves grants for qualified applications which have been directly submitted to it by individual researchers, as well as undertaking activities aimed at promoting research in sweden, to strengthen the position of swedish academics internationally.
www.rj.se
formas
formas – the swedish research council for environment, agricultural sciences and spatial Planning – is a government agency promoting excellence in basic and applied research related to sustainable development.
www.formas.se
the governing body of the king carl XVi Gustaf 0th anniversary fund for science, technology and environment wishes to convey its thanks to the financiers and organisers of the faith in the future symposium and also to express its support for and commitment to the royal Guest Professorship in general.
The Organisers
the kinG carl XVi Gustaf 50th anniVersary fund for science, technoloGy and enVironment
the purpose of the king carl XVi Gustaf 50th anniversary fund for science, technology and environment is to promote research, technological development and enterprise that will contribute to sustainable use of natural resources and the maintenance of biodiversity. more information, p.7.
the royal swedish academy of sciences
the royal swedish academy of sciences, founded in 179, is an independent organization whose overall objective is to promote the sciences and strengthen their influence in society. the academy takes special responsibility for the natural sciences and mathematics, but endeavours to promote the exchange of ideas between various disciplines.
www.kva.se
the royal swedish academy of enGineerinG sciences
the royal swedish academy of engineering sciences, iVa, is an independent arena for the exchange of knowledge. by initiating and stimulating contacts between experts from different disciplines and countries – the academy promotes cross – fertilisation between industry, academia, public administration and various interest groups. bringing people together to take part in lectures, conferences, research exchanges and other projects serves to generate new ideas and knowledge.
www.iva.se
the royal swedish academy of aGriculture and forestry
the role of the royal swedish academy of agriculture and forestry is, with the support of science and practical experience, to promote agriculture and forestry and related activities, for the benefit of society. the academy is an active forum for science and practical experience and also an independent and critical review organization.
www.ksla.se
www.svensktnaringsliv.se
0
isbn: 978-91-7190-180-4
Production Mind the Gap – Science Communication teXt Eva Krutmeijer desiGn Futerra Sustainability Communications
Printed by a Climate Neutral Company, Edita Västerås 2012 © Kungliga Hovstaterna 2012
the aim of this symposium at the royal Palace in stockholm is to discuss the complex environmental issues of climate and biodiversity and give a holistic, comprehensive view with a focus on possible solutions, needs and possibilities for a future sustainable society.
the discussion will draw on the collected competence and different specialities of the fourteen distinguished professors who have held the one-year professorship of his majesty the king carl XVi Gustaf since 1997. the professors are all presented in this booklet.

faith in the future - kungahuset.se

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