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Although preventablethrough early w arningsystems, famine crisescontinueFlickr/SodexoUSA

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Famine forecasting systems have improveddramatically over the last 30 years, says a reportBut governments and agencies continue to ignoretheir warningsPolitical hurdles must be tackled if progress is tobe made

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Famine forecasting systems still failing to spur actionRicha Malhotra

5 April 2013 | EN

[LONDON] Further scientific improvements to famine forecasting will do little to savemore lives without reforms to the way in which the humanitarian community uses them,according to a report published today (5 April).

Despite being preventable because of sophisticated early warning systems, faminecrises continue to be deadly. This is because warnings are systematically ignored bydonor governments, agencies and governments in affected countries, says the report,published by Chatham House, an independent think-tank based in London, UnitedKingdom.

"The question we are askingin the report is why earlywarning systems whichhave dramatically improved over the last 2030years are good at predicting crises but bad attriggering preventive action," says the author, RobBailey, a senior research fellow at the Royal Instituteof Internatio nal Affairs, which is based at ChathamHouse.

The report, 'Managing Famine Risk: Linking Early Warning to Early Action', draws on experiences from recentfami nes in the Horn and Sahel regions of Africa, where little action was taken regardless of warnings beingissue d months ahead, a s SciDev.Net revealed in 2011.

A food crisis is a "slow-onset disaster", it says, that allows plenty of time to anticipate the problem and takeprecautionary action.

But while the warning side of this equation works well, the precautionary actions side commonly fails for avariety of reasons, and the report offers recommendations to help bridge the gap between early warnings andresponses.

While governments in affected countries should focus on building capacity and reducing vulnerability among

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at-risk groups, humanitarian agencies need to improve their preparedness by taking initiatives such asarranging for emergency supplies, it says.

"A mechanism that can provide funding early on in a crisis, in response to risk factor triggers for a droughtevent, is one of the things donor governments need to think about," says Bailey.

Donor governments can achieve this by encouraging pooled funding mechanisms, the report says.

Although early warning systems are fairly advanced for some regions because of technological innovationsincluding satellites, mobile phones, and other information and communication technologies, the reportsuggests that many governments still need to invest in early warning systems at the national level.

"It is often the case that the most vulnerable communities do not have access to information in a form they canaccess and use," explains Bailey.

But he cautions that it is easier to focus on improving early warning systems than it is to address some of theinstitutional and political failures that prevail in the humanitarian system.

"Unless we start dealing with [the political failures] we are not going to get better at preventing famines," hewarns.

Link to full report

http://www.scidev.net/en/agriculture-and-environment/food-security/news/famine-forecasting-systems-still-failing-to-spur-action.htmlPrinted on: Friday, April 5, 2013 18:10 2013 SciDev.Net

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Energy,%20Environment%20and%20Development/0413r_earlywarnings.pdf