famous false predictions about radical innovation

18
To Forecast Radical Innovation don’t listen to “Experts” Bill Miller, PhD President, Strategic Radical Innovation LLC June 20, 2013

Upload: william-miller

Post on 22-Nov-2014

354 views

Category:

Technology


1 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

To Forecast Radical Innovation

don’t listen to “Experts”

Bill Miller, PhDPresident, Strategic Radical Innovation LLC

June 20, 2013

Page 2: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Communications of the ACMMarch 2001 – Volume 44, Number 3

Special Issue “The Next 1,000 Years”

Paper: “The Future is Ours”, by Leon Kappelman

Page 46

Source of the Following Famous Quotations

Page 3: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Germs?

Page 4: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Surgery?

Page 5: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Radio?

Page 6: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Nuclear Energy?

Page 7: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Man on the Moon?

Page 8: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

The Telephone?

Page 9: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Computers?

Page 10: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Television?

Page 11: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Computers will alwaysbe built with Tubes!

Page 12: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

The Apple Mac IntoshPersonal Computer

Page 13: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Personal Computers in Homes?

Page 14: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Maximum Memory Size in PC’s

Page 15: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

The End of Paper Documents

Page 16: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

The Internet

Note: Metcalfe invented the Ethernet and Local Area Networks

Page 17: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

The Impact of Y2K

Page 18: Famous False Predictions about Radical Innovation

Technology such as residential solar, hydroponics, self-publishing, MOOC’s, open source, and 3D printing has enabled consumers to increasingly become autonomous producers of energy, food, information, education, software and physical goods that can be produced at home and sold over the Internet and distributed worldwide without centralized factories

The result will be population migration OUT of cities

The Population will continue to migrate into Cities?