FAO Committee on Forestry 2009Special Event Climate Change and Fire

18 March 2009

Vegetation Fires and Climate Change Interactions

Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC)UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)

Global Wildland Fire Network and Wildland Fire Advisory Group

Canadian Forest Service, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Reading University, University of Maryland / GOFC-GOLD

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Presented by Johann Georg GoldammerGFMC

Vegetation Fires and Climate Change Interactions

Issues Global Vegetation Fire Occurrence and Assessments

Vegetation fire emission assessments: Magnitude of contribution to anthropogenic climate change

Impact of climate change on fire regimes and future emission scenarios / feedback loops

The context: FRA, UNFCCC-REDD ….

albedo, water & energy fluxes

trace gas & aerosol emissions

deforestation

lightning

rainfall, temperature

grazingwind

plant mortality & reproduction

nutrient supply

Fire Functioning & Feedbacks in the Earth System

FIRE

Land Cover & Vegetation Composition

Land Cover & Vegetation Composition

ClimateClimate

Fuel Quantity

Fuel Moisture

SoilSoil AtmosphericChemistry

AtmosphericChemistry

Land use

Ignitionsource

logging,agriculture

rainfall, temperature, radiation, [CO2]

Source: A. Spessa, Reading University

Seasonal Variability of Global Vegetation Fires (2005)

Global Land Use Fires: Agriculture

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Fir

e C

ou

nts 2001

2002

2003

Source: Korontzi et al., 2007

Vegetation Fire Emissions

• CO2 – Climatically relevant only when there is no

regrowth - e.g., deforestation & degradation, loss of organic layers / peat

• NOx, CO, CH4, other hydrocarbons– Ingredients of smog chemistry, greenhouse gases

• Halogenated hydrocarbons (e.g. CH3Br)– Stratospheric ozone chemistry

• Aerosols– Light scattering and absorbing, cloud

condensation nuclei (CCN)

Experimental Burn Data: Example – Boreal Forest, Canada

Fire Weather Index = 34Carbon Emissions: 19.5 t/ha

Carbon Emissions: 7.5 t/ha

Same forest stand (same fuel conditions), different fire weather (2 days between fires)

Fire Weather Index = 17

Darwin Lk Exp. Burning Project, NWT

5 August 1974 3 August 1974

Source: W.J. de Groot

• Crown fuelsC storage: 5-85 t/haC loss: 0.5-11 t/ha

• Surface fuelsC storage: 2-12 t/haC loss: 0.5-8 t/ha

• Forest floor fuelsC storage: 1.5-42 t/haC loss: 0.5-20 t/ha

Summary of C Loss DataExample – Boreal Forest, Canada

Fast DOMbelow ground(dead roots)

Very fastDOM

above ground(litter)

Stemwood

Bark, branches and

submerchantable trees

Foliage

Fine roots

Coarse roots

Snag stems

Snag branches

Very fast DOM

below ground

Atmosphere

Medium DOM(dead logs)

Slow DOMabove ground

(duff)

Black carbon

(past burn)

Slow DOMbelow ground

Fast DOMabove ground

(dead branches)

Source: W.J. de Groot

Cyclic Nature of Fire and Carbon Sequestration

Jack Pine Stand C Storage - 75yr fire cycle

0

50

100

150

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Time (yrs)

Car

bo

n (

t/h

a)

Source: W.J. de Groot and D.J. McRae

Data from Wood Buffalo National Park, Northern Canada, simulations are from the Boreal Fire Effects Model using fire weather data outputs from

Hadley and Canadian GCMs

Vegetation Biomass Burned Worldwide: 9.2 billion tonnes (metric) annually

Savannas (3160)

Domestic fuel (2660)

Extratropical Forest (640)

Charcoal prod. & use (200)

Tropical Forest (1330)

Agricultural waste (1190)

Source: Andreae and Merlet (2001), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry

                                                           

      

Global Fire Emissions

Mean annual fire carbon emissions, averaged over 1997–2006 (g C / m2 / yr)

(Note: 100 g C / m2 = 1 t / ha)

Average carbon emitted (gross) = 2.5 billion tons / year (30% of fossil fuel emissions)

Average CH4 emissions (gross) = 21 million tons / year (~5% of all sources)Source: Van der Werf et al., 2006, ACP

Global Fire Emissions

Global total carbon (C) emissions from deforestation fires (1997-2006) = Net release of carbon to the atmosphere:

On average 0.6 billion t C / year

Source: Van der Werf et al., 2006, ACP

Increasing occurrence and severities of El Niño – a consequence of regional warming?

El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Fire in South Sumatra

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Se

a L

ev

el P

res

su

re In

do

ne

sia

(Sta

nd

ard

ize

d A

no

ma

lie

s)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Nu

mb

er

of

NO

AA

/MO

DIS

-

de

tec

ted

ac

tiv

e f

ire

s in

So

uth

Su

ma

tra

Source: GTZ South Sumatra Fire Management Project (SSFMP)

Impact of climate change on fire regimes and future emission scenarios / feedback loops

Total Forest Carbon Storage

0

150

300

450

1975-1990 2080-2100

Car

bo

n (

Mt) Aspen/white spruce

Aspen

White spruce

Black spruce

Jack pine

Changing Fire Regime

Source: W.J. de Groot

• Boreal forest stores 1/3 of terrestrial ecosystem carbon• Total forest area: 1300 million ha• Average annual area burned: 10-25 million ha (highly variable)

• Fire activity has steadily increased during the last 30-40 years (area burned has doubled in North American boreal)

• This trend is expected to continue into the future

• Current (1975-1995) emissions: 0.648 billion t / yr CO2 equivalent• Estimated 2080-2100 emissions: 1.252 billion t / yr CO2 equivalent

Boreal Wildland FireSummary

Note:

Carbon dioxide equivalent (CDE) is a measure for describing how much global warming a given type and amount of greenhouse gas may cause, using the functionally equivalent amount or concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) as the reference

Boreal Wildland FireSummary

Conclusions Vegetation Fire Emissions:

• Considerable progress achieved at determining emission factors from vegetation fires

• Global and regional emission estimates are still problematic, mostly because of uncertainties regarding amounts of phytomass burned

• Excessive use of fire resulting in deforestation and ecosystem degradation is a significant driver of climate change (as well as a human health risk)

• GOFC/GOLD, ISDR and GFMC are discussing the coordination of a satellite-based global fire assessment and a global fire early warning system

Conclusions Changing Fire Regimes:

• Increasing fire severities and area burned, results in decreased total long-term C storage

• A future shift in species composition (and fuel types) will change general forest flammability; the effect of this is currently unknown

Canada: Average Monthly Severity Rating (MSR)1980-1989 (left) and 2090-2099 (right)

Overall Conclusions Climate Change - Fire Interactions (I):

• Extreme fires and their limited “controllability” in the recent years (Australia, California, Greece, Portugal, Russia … and the less reported in Africa, Asia and Latin America) are primarily an expression of indirect consequences of land-use change and increasing vulnerability of societies

• However, in order to reduce the destructivity of human-driven wildfires enhanced global capacity in assessing, modelling and managing vegetation fires is required

Overall Conclusions Climate Change - Fire Interactions (II):

• Commitments by the majority of governments and international institutions are insufficient to address fire management appropriately

• Governments are urged to provide the United Nations family with financial resources to support partner institutions, network and countries to address the problem

• Fire management to become a major effort under the post-Kyoto regime (REDD) as well as in FLEG, CCD, CBD and disaster risk reduction (UNISDR / Hyogo Framework)

FAO Committee on Forestry 2009Special Event Climate Change and Fire

18 March 2009

Vegetation Fires and Climate Change Interactions

Thanks for your attention