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INTERNATIONALINTERNATIONALDAIRYDAIRY
FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005
Fengxia Dong(515) 294-0470
FAPRIFood and Agricultural
Policy Research Institute
Center for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentCenter for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentIowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011--10701070
(515) 294(515) 294--1183 1183 http://www.fapri.iastate.eduhttp://www.fapri.iastate.edu
Major Baseline Themes
World Dairy MarketsTrade: ExpansionPrices: Gradual rise over the long term
Major ExportersAustralia & New Zealand: Export growthEuropean Union: Export declineArgentina: Export growth
Major ImportersAsia: Steady growth of import demandRussia: Import growth
Macro-Per Capita GDP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
US Dollar per capita
China Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia Thailand
Macro-Population
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Million
China India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Thailand
Macro-Exchange Rate
0123456789
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Argentina Australia Brazil China EU-15 New Zealand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Dairy Product Output for Modeled Countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
Argen
tina
Australi
aEU-N
MS
EU-15
India
Japan
Mexico
New Zea
land
Russia
Ukraine
Kg per capita
1996/2000 2001/2005 2006/2010 2011/2015
Per-Capita Butter Consumption for Selected Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
ArgentinaAustralia EU NMS EU-15 Japan Mexico NewZealand
Russia Ukraine
Kg per capita
1996/2000 2001/2005 2006/2010 2011/2015
Per-Capita Cheese Consumption for Selected Countries
01234567
China
Malays
ia
Philippines
Indonesia
South K
orea
Thailan
d
Vietna
m
Venez
uela
Kg per capita
1996/2000 2001/2005 2006/2010 2011/2015
Per-Capita NFD and WMP Consumption for Selected Countries
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
World Dairy Product Net Trade
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Thousand MT
Argentina Australia EU New Zealand Ukraine Uruguay
Net Export Growth: Major Exporters
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Thousand MT
China Egypt Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia
Net Import Growth: Major Importers
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
AU Dollar per MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
World Dairy Prices (Australian Dairy Prices)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
U.S. Dollar per MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
FOB Northern European Dairy Prices
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Australian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Australian Dairy Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Australian Dairy Net Exports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
New Zealand Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
5
10
15
20
25Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
New Zealand Dairy Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
New Zealand Dairy Net Exports
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
EU-15 Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
EU-15 Dairy Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Euro per 100 kg
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Butter Intervention NFD Intervention
EU-15 Dairy Prices
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
EU NMS Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
5
10
15
20
25Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
EU NMS Dairy Production
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
EU-25 Dairy Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
EU-25 Dairy Net Exports
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Argentine Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Argentine Dairy Production
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Argentine Dairy Net Exports
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Brazilian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Brazilian Dairy Production
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Brazilian Dairy Net Imports
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Mexican Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Mexican Dairy Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Mexican Dairy Net Imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Colombia Peru Venezuela Uruguay
Colombian, Peruvian, Uruguayan, and Venezuelan Milk Production
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Colombian, Peruvian, Uruguayan, and Venezuelan Dairy Net Imports
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Chinese Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Chinese Dairy Production
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Chinese Dairy Net Imports
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Indian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Cow Milk Other Milk (Buffalo)
Indian Milk Production
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5Million MT
NFD Prod. NFD Net Exports Butter Net Imports Butter Prod.
Indian NFD and Butter Production and Trade
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD Milk
Japanese Dairy Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD Milk
South Korean Dairy Production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Indonesian Malaysian Philippine Thailand Vietnam
Indonesian, Malaysian, Philippine, Thai, and Vietnamese Milk Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Asian Dairy Net Imports
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Russian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD Milk
Russian Dairy Production
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Russian Dairy Net Imports
Thank You!
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Australia New Zealand EU-15 Other ROW
Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Asia Egypt Mexico Russia Other ROW
Butter Net Imports for Selected Countries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Ukraine
Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Japan Mexico Russia United States Other ROW
Cheese Net Imports for Selected Countries
-500
50100150200250300350400450500
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Australia EU-15 New Zealand U.S. India Other Exporters
NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
China Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Thailand Vietnam
NFD Net Imports for Selected Countries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Other Exporters
WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Venezuela Vietnam
WMP Net Imports for Selected Countries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter NFD
EU-15 Butter and SMP Stocks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
EU-15 Dairy Net Exports
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
EU NMS Dairy Net Exports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0Million MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Uruguay Dairy Production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Uruguay Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Uruguay Dairy Net Exports
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000Million MT
Butter NFD Fluid Milk
Indian Dairy Product Consumption
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Japanese Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand Head
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
kg per Head
Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
South Korean Cow Inventory and Milk Yield
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD
Japanese Dairy Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD
South Korean Dairy Net Imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Indonesian Dairy Net Imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Malaysian Dairy Net Imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Philippine Dairy Net Imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Thai Dairy Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Thousand MT
Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Vietnam Dairy Net Imports